Urban flood hazard mapping using a hydraulic–GIS combined model

Natural Hazards - Urban flooding is a reoccurring disaster, and its frequency and intensity are likely to increase in the future due to the increasing frequency of storm events. Up-to-date...     

Validity evaluation of a groundwater dam in Oshipcheon River,eastern Korea using a SWAT–MODFLOW model

It is assumed that the groundwater dam under consideration is located in the lower Oshipcheon River along Yeongdeok-gun County, Gyeongsangbuk-do Province, eastern Korea. In this study, changes in groundwater level and construction effects of the groundwater dam were analyzed using a SWAT–MODFLOW model designed for integration of surface water and groundwater, and validity analysis before and after construction of the groundwater dam was evaluated. There are an average increase of 0.46 m and a maximum increase of 1.16 m, respectively, at the upstream region due to the groundwater dam. Groundwater levels at the upstream region show an average increase of 0.42 m by the groundwater dam when the water quantity of demand (10,080 m³/day) is pumped. The groundwater dam has potential as an alternative for the surface water dam to secure water resources in the study area.     

Magnitude–frequency relations in debris flow

Debris flow occurs frequently in mountainous regions in China. Because of the difficulties involved in predicting and catching live debris flows, an assessment of the potential for debris flow is crucial in hazard mitigation. Magnitude–frequency (MF) relations are of special significance in such assessments. In previous studies, MF relations have been inferred by analyzing environmental factors and historical records and using empirical relations. This paper is concerned with the derivation of MF relations at regional and valley scales, using a large database of statistics. At the regional scale, it is represented by the distribution of the valley area, because the area is often taken to indicate the potential magnitude of debris flow. Statistics from over 5,000 debris flow valleys in various provinces in China show that a power law holds for the distribution, i.e., p(A) ∼ A ⁻ⁿ , where p(A) is the percentage of valleys with area A and n varies with region and thus describes regional differences. At the valley scale, a case study focusing on Jiangjia Gully (JJG) was conducted, and the MF relations derived from it were expressed by the distributions of discharge and runoff (i.e., the total volume) of living debris flows observed over the last 40 years. The distributions can be expressed as exponential functions where the exponents vary with the events. These MF relations provide not only a potential quantitative reference for practical purposes but also hint at the intrinsic properties of the debris flow.     

Church–state relations in Spain: Variations on a National-Catholic theme?

Contrary to the absence of a uniform Spanish identity (a phenomenon that is often referred to as Spain being a ‘nation of nations’), Spain’s confessional map is remarkably homogeneous. From the beginning of its existence as a political conglomeration, Spain has been a mono-confessional Catholic territory. Even at present, Catholicism is an intrinsic feature of Spanish society and – though officially a secular state – of state policy. A closer look at Spain’s religious situation and its corresponding pattern of church–state relations reveals, however, some recent cracks in the century’s old bond between Spain and Catholicism. Particularly secularization and religious pluralism challenge Spain’s mono-confessional Catholic nature, a development that fits well into Spain’s post-Francoist focus on Europe and European (secular) values. This paper discusses Spanish church–state relations from the beginning of its political existence until present times. Special attention will be paid to more recent societal developments and their impact on religious Spain and church–state relations.

Analysis of rainfall-induced infinite slope failure during typhoon using a hydrological–geotechnical model

Rainwater infiltration during typhoons tends to trigger slope instability. This paper presents the results of a study on slope response to rainwater infiltration during heavy rainfall in a mountain area of Taiwan. The Green-Ampt infiltration model is adopted here to study the behavior of rainwater infiltration on slopes. The failure mechanism of infinite slope is chosen to represent the rainfall-induced shallow slope failure. By combining rain infiltration model and infinite slope analysis, the proposed model can estimate the occurrence time of a slope failure. In general, if a slope failure is to happen on a slope covered with low permeability soil, failure tends to happen after the occurrence of the maximum rainfall intensity. In contrast, slope failure tends to occur prior to the occurrence of maximum rainfall intensity if a slope is covered with high-permeability soil. To predict the potential and timing of a landslide, a method is proposed here based on the normalized rainfall intensity (NRI) and normalized accumulated rainfall (NAR). If the actual NAR is higher than the NAR calculated by the proposed method, slope failure is very likely to happen. Otherwise, the slope is unlikely to fail. The applicability of the proposed model to occurrence time and the NAR–NRI relationship is evaluated using landslide cases obtained from the literature. The results of the proposed method are close to that of the selected cases. It verifies the applicability of the proposed method to slopes in different areas of the world. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Calibration of the parameters for a hardening–softening constitutive model using genetic algorithms

The present paper introduces a genetic algorithm-based optimization technique to calibrate a nonlinear strain hardening–softening constitutive model for soils using five material parameters. The efficiency of the proposed technique is analyzed through the use of different GA techniques. The effects of elitism, crossover, and mutation, as well as population size, on the performance of the conventional GAs for this problem are investigated. Micro-genetic algorithms (mGAs) are chosen and tested for different population sizes. The mGAs with a population size of five yields the optimal parameter values after fewer function evaluations and capture the overall simulated or experimental behavior at every point in stress–strain and strain paths in triaxial compression. The proposed calibration technique is validated through comparison with the traditional calibration technique.     

Computational simulation of time-dependent behavior of soil–structure interaction by using a novel creep model: Application to a geosynthetic-reinforced soil physical model

In this paper, a model geosynthetic-reinforced soil retaining walls (GRS-RW) is tested by vertically loading it through a rough footing on the top near the retaining wall and the results are simulated by a sophisticated nonlinear Finite Element Method (FEM) having a novel rate dependent constitutive model for both the backfill material and the geosynthetic reinforcement. Usually, polymer geosynthetic reinforcement is known to exhibit more-or-less rate-dependent stress–strain or load–strain behavior due to their viscous properties. The geomaterials (i.e., clay, sand, gravel and soft rock) also exhibit viscous properties. The viscous behavior of geometrials are quite different from that of the polymer based geosynthetic-reinforcements. It has been revealed recently that viscous behavior of sand is a kind of temporary effect, which vanishes with time. So the rate-dependent deformation of backfill reinforced with polymer geosynthetic reinforcement becomes highly complicated due to interactions between the elasto-viscoplastic properties of backfill and reinforcement. In the present study, a scaled model geosynthetic-reinforced soil retaining wall is tested with a vertically loaded rough rigid footing. The results of the model test are simulated by using an appropriate elasto-viscoplastic constitutive model of both sand and geogrid embedded in a nonlinear plane strain FEM.     

Consistent modeling of a catastrophic flowslide at the Shenzhen landfill using a hydro-elasto-plastic model with solid–fluid transition

Flow-type landslides are an important hazard that can cause great destruction due to the rapid flow velocity and large disaster area. This paper presents a catastrophic flowslide that recently occurred at a landfill in Shenzhen, China. This disaster involved an area about 1100 m in length and 630 m in maximum width, and caused the death of 77 people and the destruction of 33 buildings. The precise reason for the landfill’s failure is still unknown, and therefore we try to contribute an increased understanding of the event for future prevention. In this study, the failure mechanism of the studied slope was analyzed and described under partially saturated condition. The solid–fluid transition during the flowslide occurrence was described using a unified constitutive model. The model was used to perform the hydro-elasto-plastic modeling in the pre-failure stage, the viscous modeling in the post-failure stage, and the second-order work criterion was introduced in between to model the solid–fluid transition. The consistent evolution of the flowslide, including initiation, propagation, and deposit stages, was simulated and analyzed using the finite element method with Lagrangian integration points after careful calibration of the viscous parameters. The numerical results were compared with the real case and used to explain the failure mechanism.     

Predicting bimodal soil–water characteristic curves and permeability functions using physically based parameters

Experimental evidence shows that a gap-graded soil or a widely-graded granular material may have a bimodal soil–water characteristic curve (SWCC) and a bimodal permeability function. A bimodal SWCC or a bimodal permeability function originates from a dual-porosity structure. To date, the prediction of bimodal SWCCs for gap-graded soils is still a difficult task. In this paper, a bimodal SWCC model is proposed to describe the drying process of granular soils considering a dual-porosity structure. The new SWCC model shows powerful capability in fitting the SWCCs for soils varying from gravel to silt. Regression analysis is conducted to establish empirical relations between the model parameters and the indexes of soil grain-size distribution (GSD). Based on these relations, the new model predicts well both the bimodal SWCCs for gap-graded soils and the unimodal SWCCs for well-graded soils and uniform soils. A bimodal permeability function is also proposed and linked to the new SWCC model. In the absence of experimental SWCCs and permeability functions, the new model can be used to obtain preliminary SWCCs and permeability functions for granular soils. It should be mentioned that the prediction of the SWCC from the GSD is still empirical and does not address the cyclic wetting/drying process. Measurement of the SWCC should be performed wherever an accurate SWCC is required.     

Soil discrimination using diffuse reflectance Vis–NIR spectroscopy in a local toposequence

Vis–NIR spectroscopy is nowadays presented as a possible routine method for soil sample analysis. However, there is still no consensus on which is the best multivariate statistical method to use. We propose to use principal component analysis to complete the spectral data treatment. The soil samples came from a pedological cover made up of red–yellow Latosols: 88 samples of 11 soil profiles on four toposequences were collected; clay, organic matter, silica, iron, aluminum and titanium total contents were determined; the contents of goethite, hematite, gibbsite, and kaolinite were calculated. Diffuse reflectance Vis–NIR spectroscopy at wavelengths from 400 to 2400 nm combined with principal component analysis (PCA) was sufficiently sensitive to discriminate different Latosols. Wavelengths of 700 nm and 2200 to 2300 nm were influenced by content ratios of organic matter and iron oxides (700 nm), and kaolinite and gibbsite absorption (2200 and 2300 nm). The spectral responses were affected not only by the content of these constituents, but also by the composition of the minerals, so that the same class of Latosol may have different or similar spectral responses. The role of microaggregation is discussed.     

Analysis of subdiffusion in disordered and fractured media using a Grünwald-Letnikov fractional calculus model

The increasing applications of fractional calculus in simulating the anomalous transport behavior in disordered and fractured heterogeneous porous media has grown rapidly over the past decade. In the present study, a temporal fractional flux relationship is employed as a constitutive equation to relate the volumetric flow rate to the gradient of the pore pressure. The novelty of this paper entails interpreting the time fractional derivative operator in the flux relationship by the Grünwald-Letnikov (G-L) definition as opposed to the Caputo interpretation which has been widely considered. Subsequently, a numerical scheme based on the block-centered finite-difference discretization is formulated to handle the resulting non-linear fractional diffusion model. In addition, a linear stability analysis is successfully performed to establish the stability criterion of the developed numerical scheme. An expression for the modified incremental material balance index was derived to assess the effectiveness of the numerical discretization process. Finally, numerical experiments were performed to provide qualitative insights into the nature of pressure evolution in a hydrocarbon reservoir under the influence subdiffusion. In summary, the results establish that subdiffusion regime results in the development of higher pressure drop in the reservoir. This paper will provide a strong foundation for researchers interested in investigating anomalous diffusion phenomena in porous media.     

Linking gold mineralization to regional-scale drivers of mineral systems using in situ U–Pb geochronology and pyrite LA-ICP-MS element mapping

Proterozoic orogens commonly host a range of hydrothermal ores that form in diverse tectonic settings at different times. However, the link between mineralization and the regional-scale tectonothermal evolution of orogens is usually not well understood, especially in areas subject to multiple hydrothermal events.Regional-scale drivers for mineral systems vary between the different classes of hydrothermal ore, but all involve an energy source and a fluid pathway to focus mineralizing fluids into the upper crust. The Mount Olympus gold deposit in the Proterozoic Capricorn Orogen of Western Australia, was regarded as an orogenic gold deposit that formed at ca. 1738 Ma during the assembly of Proterozoic Australia. However,the trace element chemistry of the pyrite crystals closely resembles those of the Carlin deposits of Nevada,with rims that display solid solution gold accompanied by elevated As, Cu, Sb, Hg, and Tl, surrounding gold-poor cores. New SHRIMP UeP b dating of xenotime intergrown with auriferous pyrite and ore-stage alteration minerals provided a weighted mean~(207) Pb*/~(206) Pb* date of 1769 ± 5 Ma, interpreted as the age of gold mineralization. This was followed by two discrete episodes of hydrothermal alteration at 1727 ± 7 Ma and 1673 ± 8 Ma. The three ages are linked to multiple reactivation of the crustal-scale Nanjilgardy Fault during repeated episodes of intracratonic reworking. The regional-scale drivers for Carlin-like gold mineralization at Mount Olympus are related to a change in tectonic regime during the final stages of the intracratonic 1820 -1770 Ma Capricorn Orogeny. Our results suggest that substantial sized Carlin-like gold deposits can form in an intracratonic setting during regional-scale crustal reworking.     

Wave Method for multiple wave suppression without knowledge of a depth—velocity medium model

A wave method for suppression of multiple waves that does not require knowledge of a depth— velocity medium model is developed. The method is constructed so as to completely suppress multiple waves in the case of a layer in a half-space. The efficiency of the method for arbitrary 3D plane-layered media is demonstrated both theoretically and numerically. Examples of the method application for real media showing a substantial decrease in the multiple wave amplitudes without distortion of the dynamics of useful reflections are given.     

Modeling watershed rainfall–runoff relations using impervious surface-area data with high spatial resolution

A distributed object-based rainfall–runoff simulation (DORS) model with incorporation of detailed impervious surface-area (ISA) data, derived from digital true-color orthophotography data with high spatial resolution, was developed. This physically based model simulates hydrologic processes of precipitation interception, infiltration, runoff, evapotranspiration, change of soil moisture, change of water-table depth, runoff routing, groundwater routing, and channel-flow routing. The modeling processes take objects based on land-cover types as fundamental spatial units in order to reduce data volume, increase computational efficiency, strengthen representation of watersheds, and utilize the data in variable scales. US Geological Survey stream-gaging data were used to validate the temporal variation of simulated discharge within two watersheds in Rhode Island State. The ratio of absolute error to the mean and the Nash coefficient in the validation period are 7.2% and 0.90 for the first watershed, and 8.0% and 0.77 for the second watershed, respectively. The results indicate that the DORS model is able to capture the relationship between rainfall and runoff in the study area, and that it is applicable in the further study of ISA impacts on the water cycle and associated pollution problems. The results also demonstrate that the performance of the hydrologic simulation is improved with ISA data with high spatial resolution.     

Assessment of advective–dispersive contaminant transport in heterogeneous aquifers using a meshless method

Groundwater solute transport phenomena typically occur in water-bearing zones with heterogeneous solute dispersive characteristics and/or media hydraulic properties. A radial basis function collocation method (RBFCM)-based numerical method was developed in order to investigate the ability of RBFCM to accurately portray solute transport phenomena under heterogeneous conditions. Simulations were performed for 1-D and 2-D transport scenarios in which scale-dependent dispersivity fields were taken into consideration and compared with available analytical solutions. Different radial basis functions (RBFs) were employed for assessing the sensitivity of the present method on the selected RBFs. The simulation results were also compared with the results of MT3DMS which is a modular three-dimensional transport model with alternative solution schemes including the method of characteristics, the implicit central finite difference and the third order total variation diminishing finite volume. The proposed model was also used to simulate a real case condition where solute transport through a two-layer soil medium had been investigated experimentally. The results showed that RBFCM represented a powerful tool for predicting the solute transport occurrence under heterogeneous conditions with high accuracy.     

Exploring the extent to which fluctuations in ice-rafted debris reflect mass changes in the source ice sheet: a model–observation comparison using the last British–Irish Ice Sheet

The British and Irish Ice Sheet (BIIS) was highly dynamic during the Late Quaternary, with considerable regional differences in the timing and extent of its change. This was reflected in equally variable offshore ice-rafted debris (IRD) records. Here we reconcile these two records using the FRUGAL intermediate complexity iceberg–climate model, with varying BIIS catchment-level iceberg fluxes, to simulate change in IRD origin and magnitude along the western European margin at 1000-year time steps during the height of the last BIIS glaciation (31–6 ka bp ). This modelled IRD variability is compared with existing IRD records from the deep ocean at five cores along this margin. There is general agreement of the temporal and spatial IRD variability between observations and model through this period. The Porcupine Bank off northwestern Ireland was confirmed by the modelling as a major dividing line between sites possessing exclusively northern or southern source regions for offshore IRD. During Heinrich events 1 and 2, the cores show evidence of a proportion of North American IRD, more particularly to the south of the British Isles. Modelling supports this southern bias for likely Heinrich impact, but also suggests North American IRD will only reach the British margin in unusual circumstances.     

Ternary Ca–Fe–Mg carbonates: subsolidus phase relations at 3.5 GPa and a thermodynamic solid solution model including order/disorder

Subduction carries atmospheric and crustal carbon hosted in the altered oceanic crystalline basement and in pelagic sediments back into the mantle. Reactions involving complex carbonate solid solutions(s) lead to the transfer of carbon into the mantle, where it may be stored as graphite/diamond, in fluids or melts, or in carbonates. To constrain the thermodynamics and thus reactions of the ternary Ca–Mg–Fe carbonate solid solution, piston cylinder experiments have been performed in the system CaCO₃–MgCO₃–FeCO₃ at a pressure of 3.5 GPa and temperatures of 900–1,100°C. At 900°C, the system has two miscibility gaps: the solvus dolomite–calcite, which closes at X _MgCO3 ~0.7, and the solvus dolomite–magnesite, which ranges from the Mg to the Fe side of the ternary. With increasing temperature, the two miscibility gaps become narrower until complete solid solutions between CaCO₃–Ca_0.5Mg_0.5CO₃ is reached at 1,100°C and between CaCO₃–FeCO₃ at 1,000°C. The solvi are characterized by strong compositional asymmetry and by an order–disorder mechanism. To deal with these features, a solid solution model based on the van Laar macroscopic formalism has been calculated for ternary carbonates. This thermodynamic solid solution model is able to reproduce the experimentally constrained phase relations in the system CaCO₃–MgCO₃–FeCO₃ in a broad P–T range. To test our model, calculated phase equilibria were compared with experiments performed in carbonated mafic protolithes, demonstrating the reliability of our solid solution model at pressures up to 6 GPa in complex systems.     

Landslide susceptibility analysis using probabilistic likelihood ratio model—a geospatial-based study

The crucial and difficult task in landslide susceptibility analysis is estimating the probability of occurrence of future landslides in a study area under a specific set of geomorphic and topographic conditions. This task is addressed with a data-driven probabilistic model using likelihood ratio or frequency ratio and is applied to assess the occurrence of landslides in the Tevankarai Ar sub-watershed, Kodaikkanal, South India. The landslides in the study area are triggered by heavy rainfall. Landslide-related factors—relief, slope, aspect, plan curvature, profile curvature, land use, soil, and topographic wetness index proximity to roads and proximity to lineaments—are considered for the study. A geospatial database of the related landslide factors is constructed using Arcmap in GIS environment. Landslide inventory of the area is produced by detailed field investigation and analysis of the topographical maps. The results are validated using temporal data of known landslide locations. The area under the curve shows that the accuracy of the model is 85.83%. In the reclassified final landslide susceptibility map, 14.48% of the area is critical in nature, falling under the very high hazard zone, and 67.86% of the total validation dataset landslides fall in this zone. This landslide susceptibility map is a vital tool for town planning, land use, and land cover planning and to reduce risks caused by landslides.