Late Quaternary rapid climate change in northern Chile

Analyses of terrigenous sediments from the Chilean continental slope off the southern border of the Atacama desert (27.5°S), focusing on illite crystallinity and the Fe:Al ratio of the sediments, reveal a high-frequency variability of the position of the Southern Westerlies, which is very similar to the coeval short-term climatic events known from Greenland ice cores and from North Atlantic sediments. Besides showing dominantly precession-driven variability in precipitation over the Andes, these analyses also reveal rapid changes in weathering intensity along the Chilean Coastal Range during the last 80,000 years. These rapid changes occur at much shorter timescales than the 19–100 kyr orbital forcing of the Milankovitch cycles.     

Paleowetlands and regional climate change in the central Atacama Desert, northern Chile

Widespread, organic-rich diatomaceous deposits are evidence for formerly wetter times along the margins of the central Atacama Desert, one of the driest places on Earth today. We mapped and dated these paleowetland deposits at three presently waterless locations near Salar de Punta Negra (24.5°S) on the western slope of the Andes. Elevated groundwater levels supported phreatic discharge into wetlands during two periods: 15,900 to ~ 13,800 and 12,700 to ~ 9700 cal yr BP. Dense concentrations of lithic artifacts testify to the presence of paleoindians around the wetlands late in the second wet phase (11,000?-9700 cal yr BP). Water tables dropped below the surface before 15,900 and since 8100 cal yr BP, and briefly between ~ 13,800 and 12,700 cal yr BP. This temporal pattern is repeated, with some slight differences, in rodent middens from the study area, in both paleowetland and rodent midden deposits north and south of the study area, and in lake level fluctuations on the adjacent Bolivian Altiplano. The regional synchroneity of these changes points to a strengthening of the South American Monsoon — which we term the “Central Andean Pluvial Event” — in two distinct intervals (15,900-13,800 and 12,700-9700 cal yr BP), probably induced by steepened SST gradients across the tropical Pacific (i.e., La Niña-like conditions).     

Numerical simulation of land subsidence induced by groundwater overexploitation in Su-Xi-Chang area,China

Su-Xi-Chang area is one of the typical regions in China which suffers from severe land subsidence. Various field monitoring records were integrated to study the characteristics and mechanisms of land subsidence in this region. The development of the land subsidence in this region shows a tight spatial and temporal correlation with the groundwater pumping. Based on the analysis of the field data, it is found that the deformation patterns of the hydrogeologic units are greatly related to the hydrogeologic properties and groundwater level variations. Some have an elastic behavior, others may have an elastic–plastic rheology. Hence, a 3D finite element numerical model considering the rheological properties of the soil was developed to simulate the groundwater level and land subsidence. Both hydraulic conductivity and specific storage were expected to vary with the porosity during the process of consolidation. Multiscale finite element method (MsFEM) was applied to solve the model during the period from 1996 to 2004. After calibrating the model with the observed groundwater level and subsidence data, the parameters of the multi-layers system were estimated. The calibrated model outputs fit reasonably well with the observed data. Consequently the model can be applied to predict groundwater level and land subsidence in future pumping scenarios. The model predictive results show that land subsidence rate can be controlled and even rebound may occur after the implementation of the groundwater exploitation prohibition. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Analysis of subsurface temperature data to quantify groundwater recharge rates in a closed Altiplano basin,northern Chile

Quantifying groundwater recharge is a fundamental part of groundwater resource assessment and management, and is requisite to determining the safe yield of an aquifer. Natural groundwater recharge in arid and semi-arid regions comprises several mechanisms: in-place, mountain-front, and mountain-block recharge. A field study was undertaken in a high-plain basin in the Altiplano region of northern Chile to quantify the magnitude of in-place and mountain-front recharge. Water fluxes corresponding to both recharge mechanisms were calculated using heat as a natural tracer. To quantify in-place recharge, time-series temperature data in cased boreholes were collected, and the annual fluctuation at multiple depths analyzed to infer the water flux through the unsaturated zone. To quantify mountain-front recharge, time-series temperature data were collected in perennial and ephemeral stream channels. Streambed thermographs were analyzed to determine the onset and duration of flow in ephemeral channels, and the vertical water fluxes into both perennial and ephemeral channels. The point flux estimates in streambeds and the unsaturated zone were upscaled to channel and basin-floor areas to provide comparative estimates of the range of volumetric recharge rates corresponding to each recharge mechanism. The results of this study show that mountain-front recharge is substantially more important than in-place recharge in this basin. The results further demonstrate the worth of time-series subsurface temperature data to characterize both in-place and mountain-front recharge processes.     

中国北方气候变化特征及其对岩溶水的影响

在气候变化的大背景下,近数十年来随着北方岩溶区降水量的趋势性下降和气温的不断升高,岩溶水补给资源量大幅度衰减,气候变化成为引发一系列岩溶水文地质环境问题的原因之一。针对这一问题,以岩溶水系统为单元,采用大量气象系列资料研究北方岩溶区降水变化与分布特征,分析了气候变化发展趋势及成因,从区域角度出发,估算了气候变化对岩溶水资源的影响。     

Pumping dry: an increasing groundwater budget deficit induced by urbanization,industrialization, and climate change in an over-exploited volcanic aquifer

A methodology is proposed to improve the groundwater budget model by determining the past, present, and future recharge and discharge rates. The model is applied to an increasingly urbanized and industrialized region with drying tendencies: the Toluca Valley, Mexico. This study includes spatially variable recharge determined from the historical climate data, the climate change predictions, and the multiple parameters used in the Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP3) model. Using HELP3 a spatial discretization for the average recharge is obtained and estimated at 376 million cubic meters per year (Mm³/year). When considering climate change predictions, by 2050 the average scenario projects recharge to decrease by 15 Mm³/year (from 376 to 361 Mm³/year), and in a worst case scenario up to a maximum decrease of 88 Mm³/year (from 376 to 288 Mm³/year). Groundwater pumping has increased steadily since 1970 and is estimated at 495 Mm³/year for 2010. The current average deficit estimated for 2010 is 172 Mm³/year with average projections increasing to over 292 Mm³/year by 2050. This study of two of the most important components of the water cycle (recharge and discharge) clearly shows that the decreasing water availability in the Toluca basin is due mainly to groundwater pumping and that the current pumping rates are not sustainable. The current deficit can be considered problematic and projections based on expected water consumption and climate change reinforce the need for management of the water resources to be addressed.     

GIS and SBF for estimating groundwater recharge of a mountainous basin in the Wu River watershed,Taiwan

The temporal and spatial distributions of precipitation are extremely uneven; so, careful management of water resources in Taiwan is crucial. The long-term overexploitation of groundwater resources poses a challenge to water resource management in Taiwan. However, assessing groundwater resources in mountainous basins is challenging due to limited information. In this study, a geographic information system (GIS) and stable base-flow (SBF) techniques were used to assess the characteristics of groundwater recharge considering the Wu River watershed in central Taiwan as a study area. First, a GIS approach was used to integrate five contributing factors: lithology, land cover/land use, lineaments, drainage, and slope. The weights of factors contributing to the groundwater recharge were obtained from aerial photos, geological maps, a land use database, and field verification. Second, the SBF was used to estimate the groundwater recharge in a mountainous basin scale. The concept of the SBF technique was to separate the base-flow from the total streamflow discharge in order to obtain a measure of groundwater recharge. The SBF technique has the advantage of integrating groundwater recharge across an entire basin without complex hydro-geologic modelling and detailed knowledge of the soil characteristics. In this study, our approach for estimating recharge provides not only an estimate of how much water becomes groundwater, but also explains the characteristics of a potential groundwater recharge zone.     

气候与土地利用变化对流域水资源的影响——以美国北卡罗莱纳州Trent流域为例

分布式水文模型PRMS可为气候与土地利用变化对流域水资源影响的研究提供技术和理论支撑.对Trent流域产流过程采用PRMS模型进行模拟检验,结果表明,Nash模型确定性系数达到0.8以上.水文响应单元(HRU)划分尺度减小,可以有效地提高PRMS模拟精度达7%左右,划分尺度缩小到71个HRU时,模拟精度不再提高.流域蒸...     

Drinking-water treatment,climate change,and childhood gastrointestinal illness projections for northern Wisconsin (USA) communities drinking untreated groundwater

This study examined the relative importance of climate change and drinking-water treatment for gastrointestinal illness incidence in children (age <5 years) from period 2046–2065 compared to 1991–2010. The northern Wisconsin (USA) study focused on municipalities distributing untreated groundwater. A time-series analysis first quantified the observed (1991–2010) precipitation and gastrointestinal illness associations after controlling for seasonality and temporal trends. Precipitation likely transported pathogens into drinking-water sources or into leaking water-distribution networks. Building on observed relationships, the second analysis projected how climate change and drinking-water treatment installation may alter gastrointestinal illness incidence. Future precipitation values were modeled by 13 global climate models and three greenhouse-gas emissions levels. The second analysis was rerun using three pathways: (1) only climate change, (2) climate change and the same slow pace of treatment installation observed over 1991–2010, and (3) climate change and the rapid rate of installation observed over 2011–2016. The results illustrate the risks that climate change presents to small rural groundwater municipalities without drinking water treatment. Climate-change-related seasonal precipitation changes will marginally increase the gastrointestinal illness incidence rate (mean: ～1.5%, range: ?3.6–4.3%). A slow pace of treatment installation somewhat decreased precipitation-associated gastrointestinal illness incidence (mean: ～3.0%, range: 0.2–7.8%) in spite of climate change. The rapid treatment installation rate largely decreases the gastrointestinal illness incidence (mean: ～82.0%, range: 82.0–83.0%).     

Hydrological impact of forest fires and climate change in a Mediterranean basin

Forest fire can modify and accelerate the hydrological response of Mediterranean basins submitted to intense rainfall: during the years following a fire, the effects on the hydrological response may be similar to those produced by the growth of impervious areas. Moreover, climate change and global warming in Mediterranean areas can imply consequences on both flash flood and fire hazards, by amplifying these phenomena. Based on historical events and post-fire experience, a methodology to interpret the impacts of forest fire in terms of rainfall-runoff model parameters has been proposed. It allows to estimate the consequences of forest fire at the watershed scale depending on the considered burned area. In a second stage, the combined effect of forest fire and climate change has been analysed to map the future risk of forest fire and their consequence on flood occurrence. This study has been conducted on the Llobregat river basin (Spain), a catchment of approximately 5,000 km² frequently affected by flash floods and forest fires. The results show that forest fire can modify the hydrological response at the watershed scale when the burned area is significant. Moreover, it has been shown that climate change may increase the occurrence of both hazards, and hence, more frequent severe flash floods may appear.     

中国西北内陆干旱盆地地下水形成演化模式及其意义

随着系统理论分析方法的引入和同位素、遥感、计算机技术和先进物探手段等的应用,内陆干旱区的地下水勘查与研究得到迅速发展。本文以作者在中国西北地区近十几年的地下水勘查与研究成果为主要基础,将内陆干旱盆地平原区地下水划分为四级地下水流系统,即山前局部地下水流系统（Ｉ）、区域地下水流系统（Ⅱ）、滞流地下水流系统（Ⅲ）和细土平原区易变的局部地下水流系统（Ⅳ）。盆地地下水的形成演化和盐分迁移主要发生在Ｉ、Ⅱ和     

Climate change impacts on groundwater resources: modelled deficits in a chalky aquifer,Geer basin,Belgium

An integrated hydrological model (MOHISE) was developed in order to study the impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle in representative water basins in Belgium. This model considers most hydrological processes in a physically consistent way, more particularly groundwater flows which are modelled using a spatially distributed, finite-element approach. Thanks to this accurate numerical tool, after detailed calibration and validation, quantitative interpretations can be drawn from the groundwater model results. Considering IPCC climate change scenarios, the integrated approach was applied to evaluate the impact of climate change on the water cycle in the Geer basin in Belgium. The groundwater model is described in detail, and results are discussed in terms of climate change impact on the evolution of groundwater levels and groundwater reserves. From the modelling application on the Geer basin, it appears that, on a pluri-annual basis, most tested scenarios predict a decrease in groundwater levels and reserves in relation to variations in climatic conditions. However, for this aquifer, the tested scenarios show no enhancement of the seasonal changes in groundwater levels.

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Resumen Se ha desarrollado un modelo hidrológico integrado (MOHISE) para estudiar el impacto del cambio climático en el ciclo hidrológico de cuencas representativas en Bélgica. Este modelo considera todos los procesos hidrológicos de forma coherente, especialmente en relación con los flujos de aguas subterráneas, que son modelados por medio de un enfoque de elementos finitos espacialmente distribuidos. Gracias a esta herramienta numérica precisa, y tras una calibración y validación detalladas, se puede obtener interpretaciones cuantitativas de los resultados del modelo del acuífero. Considerando escenarios de cambio climático IPCC, se ha aplicado el enfoque integrado a la evaluación del impacto de dicho cambio climático en el ciclo hidrológico de la cuenca del Geer. Se describe los detalles y resultados del modelo de las aguas subterráneas en términos del impacto del cambio climático en la evolución de las reservas de los acuíferos. Los resultados preliminares indican que es posible esperar déficits de aguas subterráneas en un futuro en Bélgica.

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Résumé Un modèle hydrologique intégré (MOHISE) a été développé afin détudier limpact du changement climatique sur le cycle hydrologique de bassins versants représentatifs de Belgique. Ce modèle prend en compte tous les processus hydrologiques dune manière physiquement consistante, plus particulièrement les écoulements souterrains qui sont modélisés par une approche spatialement distribuée aux éléments finis. Grâce à cet outil numérique précis, après une calibration et une validation détaillées, des interprétations quantitatives peuvent être réalisées à partir des résultats du modèle de nappe. Considérant des scénarios de changements climatiques de lIPCC, lapproche intégrée a été appliquée pour évaluer limpact du changement climatique sur le cycle de leau du bassin du Geer en Belgique. Le modèle de nappe est décrit en détail et les résultats sont discutés en terme dimpact du changement climatique sur lévolution des réserves souterraines. Les premiers résultats indiquent que des déficits deau souterraine peuvent apparaître dans le futur en Belgique.

     

Impact of climate change on groundwater recharge in a small catchment in the Black Forest, Germany

Temporal and spatial changes of the hydrological cycle are the consequences of climate variations. In addition to changes in surface runoff with possible floods and droughts, climate variations may affect groundwater through alteration of groundwater recharge with consequences for future water management. This study investigates the impact of climate change, according to the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B, A2 and B1, on groundwater recharge in the catchment area of a fissured aquifer in the Black Forest, Germany, which has sparse groundwater data. The study uses a water-balance model considering a conceptual approach for groundwater-surface water exchange. River discharge data are used for model calibration and validation. The results show temporal and spatial changes in groundwater recharge. Groundwater recharge is progressively reduced for summer during the twenty-first century. The annual sum of groundwater recharge is affected negatively for scenarios A1B and A2. On average, groundwater recharge during the twenty-first century is reduced mainly for the lower parts of the valley and increased for the upper parts of the valley and the crests. The reduced storage of water as snow during winter due to projected higher air temperatures causes an important relative increase in rainfall and, therefore, higher groundwater recharge and river discharge.     

中国西北内陆干旱盆地地下水资源评估与开发

以多年的地下水勘查经验、成果为基础，总结西北内陆干旱盆地地下水资源评估与开发中的主要问题，分析了产生这些问题的客观和主观原因；认为地下水动态监测和水运行测量统计是实现逐步逼近地下水资源量的最有效方法；提出了开发地下水库，实施地表水、地下水联合调度，稳定供水，是西北内陆干旱盆地水资源开发的最佳模式。