A comparison of stochastic and deterministic downscaling methods for modelling potential groundwater recharge under climate change in East Anglia, UK: implications for groundwater resource management

Groundwater resource estimates require the calculation of recharge using a daily time step. Within climate-change impact studies, this inevitably necessitates temporal downscaling of global or regional climate model outputs. This paper compares future estimates of potential groundwater recharge calculated using a daily soil-water balance model and climate-change weather time series derived using change factor (deterministic) and weather generator (stochastic) methods for Coltishall, UK. The uncertainty in the results for a given climate-change scenario arising from the choice of downscaling method is greater than the uncertainty due to the emissions scenario within a 30-year time slice. Robust estimates of the impact of climate change on groundwater resources require stochastic modelling of potential recharge, but this has implications for groundwater model runtimes. It is recommended that stochastic modelling of potential recharge is used in vulnerable or sensitive groundwater systems, and that the multiple recharge time series are sampled according to the distribution of contextually important time series variables, e.g. recharge drought severity and persistence (for water resource management) or high recharge years (for groundwater flooding). Such an approach will underpin an improved understanding of climate change impacts on sustainable groundwater resource management based on adaptive management and risk-based frameworks.     

Impact of water demand on hydrological regime under climate and LULC change scenarios

The present study focuses on an assessment of the impact of future water demand on the hydrological regime under land use/land cover (LULC) and climate change scenarios. The impact has been quantified in terms of streamflow and groundwater recharge in the Gandherswari River basin, West Bengal, India. dynamic conversion of land use and its effects (Dyna-CLUE) and statistical downscaling model (SDSM) are used for quantifying the future LULC and climate change scenarios, respectively. Physical-based semi-distributed model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used for estimating future streamflow and spatiotemporally distributed groundwater recharge. Model calibration and validation have been performed using discharge data (1990–2016). The impacts of LULC and climate change on hydrological variables are evaluated with three scenarios (for the years 2030, 2050 and 2080). Temperature Vegetation Dyrness Index (TVDI) and evapotranspiration (ET) are considered for estimation of water-deficit conditions in the river basin. Exceedance probability and recurrence interval representation are considered for uncertainty analysis. The results show increased discharge in case of monsoon season and decreased discharge in case of the non-monsoon season for the years 2030 and 2050. However, a reverse trend is obtained for the year 2080. The overall increase in groundwater recharge is visible for all the years. This analysis provides valuable information for the irrigation water management framework.     

The influence of model structure on groundwater recharge rates in climate-change impact studies

Numerous modeling approaches are available to provide insight into the relationship between climate change and groundwater recharge. However, several aspects of how hydrological model choice and structure affect recharge predictions have not been fully explored, unlike the well-established variability of climate model chains—combination of global climate models (GCM) and regional climate models (RCM). Furthermore, the influence on predictions related to subsoil parameterization and the variability of observation data employed during calibration remain unclear. This paper compares and quantifies these different sources of uncertainty in a systematic way. The described numerical experiment is based on a heterogeneous two-dimensional reference model. Four simpler models were calibrated against the output of the reference model, and recharge predictions of both reference and simpler models were compared to evaluate the effect of model structure on climate-change impact studies. The results highlight that model simplification leads to different recharge rates under climate change, especially under extreme conditions, although the different models performed similarly under historical climate conditions. Extreme weather conditions lead to model bias in the predictions and therefore must be considered. Consequently, the chosen calibration strategy is important and, if possible, the calibration data set should include climatic extremes in order to minimise model bias introduced by the calibration. The results strongly suggest that ensembles of climate projections should be coupled with ensembles of hydrogeological models to produce credible predictions of future recharge and with the associated uncertainties.     

Estimating impacts of changed land use on recharge: review of modelling and other approaches appropriate for management of dryland salinity

To manage dryland salinity, one needs to know how changed land use affects groundwater recharge. Few techniques are available for comparing 'deep drainage' under different land uses. Soil-tracer methods, although good for replication and remote field sites, are subject to spatial variability. Lysimeters are good for comparisons but are difficult for drier areas and sloping land. Agronomic water-balance studies, where appropriate soil-water measurements exist, may be used with a soil-vegetation model to estimate long-term deep drainage. Complex models are required to analyze specific land-use differences, such as perenniality and root and leaf area dynamics, but models require intensive and extensive data for calibration. This approach is time-consuming, labour-intensive, and difficult in remote locations. Because of the one-dimensionality of most soil-vegetation models and the small fraction of the total water balance that is deep drainage, little success has occurred in extrapolating beyond the research plot, or to spatially heterogeneous systems such as alley farming. Some 'top-down' modelling and landscape disaggregation approaches have been partially successful in making catchment or regional-scale predictions. The direction for further work depends on the level of recharge reduction that is required for most groundwater systems and difficulties that it imposes. Electronic Publication     

Assessing the influence of climate change and inter-basin water diversion on Haihe River basin,eastern China: a coupled model approach

The modeling of changes in surface water and groundwater in the areas of inter-basin water diversion projects is quite difficult because surface water and groundwater models are run separately most of the time and the lack of sufficient data limits the application of complex surface-water/groundwater coupling models based on physical laws, especially for developing countries. In this study, a distributed surface-water and groundwater coupling model, named the distributed time variant gain model–groundwater model (DTVGM-GWM), was used to assess the influence of climate change and inter-basin water diversion on a watershed hydrological cycle. The DTVGM-GWM model can reflect the interaction processes of surface water and groundwater at basin scale. The model was applied to the Haihe River Basin (HRB) in eastern China. The possible influences of climate change and the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) on surface water and groundwater in the HRB were analyzed under various scenarios. The results showed that the newly constructed model DTVGM-GWM can reasonably simulate the surface and river runoff, and describe the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of groundwater level, groundwater storage and phreatic recharge. The prediction results under different scenarios showed a decline in annual groundwater exploitation and also runoff in the HRB, while an increase of groundwater storage and groundwater level after the SNWDP’s operation. Additionally, as the project also addresses future scenarios, a slight increase is predicted in the actual evapotranspiration, soil water content and phreatic recharge. This study provides valuable insights for developing sustainable groundwater management options for the HRB.     

Functioning and precipitation-displacement modelling of rainfall-induced deep-seated landslides subject to creep deformation

We propose an approach to study the hydro-mechanical behaviour and evolution of rainfall-induced deep-seated landslides subjected to creep deformation by combining signal processing and modelling. The method is applied to the Séchilienne landslide in the French Alps, where precipitation and displacement have been monitored for 20 years. Wavelet analysis is first applied on precipitation and recharge as inputs and then on displacement time-series decomposed into trend and detrended signals as outputs. Results show that the detrended displacement is better linked to the recharge signal than to the total precipitation signal. The infra-annual detrended displacement is generated by high precipitation events, whereas annual and multi-annual variations are rather linked to recharge variations and thus to groundwater processes. This leads to conceptualise the system into a two-layer aquifer constituted of a perched aquifer (reactive aquifer responsible of high-frequency displacements) and a deep aquifer (inertial aquifer responsible of low-frequency displacements). In a second step, a new lumped model (GLIDE) coupling groundwater and a creep deformation model is applied to simulate displacement on three extensometer stations. The application of the GLIDE model gives good performance, validating most of the preliminary functioning hypotheses. Our results show that groundwater fluctuations can explain the displacement periodic variations as well as the long-term creep exponential trend. In the case of deep-seated landslides, this displacement trend is interpreted as the consequence of the weakening of the rock mechanical properties due to repeated actions of the groundwater pressure.     

Development and parameterisation of a complex hydrogeological model based on high-resolution direct-push data

Ongoing developments in geological and hydrogeological investigation techniques, especially direct-push methods, have led to an increase in the quality, density and spatial resolution of data available from such investigations. This has created new challenges in the development of numerical models in terms of accurately and efficiently translating detailed and complex conceptual models into effective numerical models. Suitable geometrical and numerical modelling tools are essential in order to meet these challenges. This paper describes the development of a three-dimensional hydrogeological flow model for a contaminated site near Berlin, Germany, based on high-resolution geological data obtained principally using direct-push methods. The available data were first interpreted to construct a detailed GIS-based geological model, which formed the basis of the conceptual site model. The conceptual model was then translated into a geometrical model, which was used to create a finite element numerical model. An innovative geometry object-based approach enabled the complex structural details of the conceptual model to be accurately reproduced in the numerical model domain. The resulting three-dimensional steady-state unconfined flow model was successfully calibrated using external automated calibration software, whereby parameter values for groundwater recharge and hydraulic conductivity were determined.     

Application of WetSpass model to estimate groundwater recharge variability in the Nile Delta aquifer

Long-term groundwater recharge from rainfall in the Nile Delta is needed as an input for integrated groundwater modelling in the Nile Delta aquifer for more accurate simulation. The main objective is to estimate the spatial and temporal variation of groundwater recharge from rainfall in the Nile Delta aquifer. Water and Energy Transfer between Soil, Plants and Atmosphere under quasi-Steady State (WetSpass) model parameters were identified for the Nile Delta based on the available meteorological data for the area collected in 1991 and 2000. The collected data were rainfall, temperature, wind speed and evapotranspiration. Geomorphological characteristics, such as soil type, topography, groundwater depth and slope, were also collected as input data for the WetSpass model. ENVI software was used to come up with land use classification based on available land cover images of the Nile Delta for 1972, 1984, 1990, 2000 and 2009. The WetSpass model was calibrated by comparing the simulated groundwater recharge with the calculated one by using the water balance equation model. The results indicated close agreement in groundwater recharge between the two model outputs with R ² of 0.99 and 0.94, while the root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) were 4.86 and 9.39 mm for 1991 and 2000, respectively. The WetSpass model was then applied in respect of 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2010 for the purpose of validation. The overall RMSE and R ² for the 6 years were 8.83 mm and 0.88, respectively. The results of the WetSpass calibrated model provide information to support integrated groundwater modelling. The results reveal that WetSpass works well in simulating the components of the hydrological balance in the Nile Delta.     

Isotope hydrogeochemical models for assessing the hydrological processes in a part of the largest continental flood basalts province of India

Continental Flood Basalts (CFB) occupy one fourth of the world’s land area. Hence, it is important to discern the hydrological processes in this complex hydrogeological setup for the sustainable water resources development. A model assisted isotope, geochemical, geospatial and geophysical study was conducted to understand the monsoonal characteristics, recharge processes, renewability and geochemical evolution in one of the largest continental flood basalt provinces of India. HYSPLIT modelling and stable isotopes were used to assess the monsoonal characteristics. Rayleigh distillation model were used to understand the climatic conditions at the time of groundwater recharge. Lumped parameter models (LPM) were employed to quantify the mean transit time (MTT) of groundwater. Statistical and geochemical models were adopted to understand the geochemical evolution along the groundwater flow path. A geophysical model was used to understand the geometry of the aquifer. The back trajectory analysis confirms the isotopic finding that precipitation in this region is caused by orographic uplifting of air masses originating from the Arabian Sea. Stable isotopic data of groundwater showed its meteoric origin and two recharge processes were discerned; (i) quick and direct recharge by precipitation through fractured and weathered basalt, (ii) low infiltration through the clayey black cotton soil and subjected to evaporation prior to the recharge. Tritium data showed that the groundwater is a renewable source and have shorter transit times (from present day to <30 years). The hydrogeochemical study indicated multiple sources/processes such as: the minerals dissolution, silicate weathering, ion exchange, anthropogenic influences etc. control the chemistry of the groundwater. Based on the geo-electrical resistivity survey, the potential zones (weathered and fractured) were delineated for the groundwater development. Thus, the study highlights the usefulness of model assisted isotopic hydrogeochemical techniques for understanding the recharge and geochemical processes in a basaltic aquifer system.     

黑河中游盆地南部山区地下水对平原区侧向径流补给量的估算

山区地下水对平原区的侧向径流补给量是一个长期争议且悬而未决的难题,这个量在西北内陆干旱盆地,被估算得或很小或很大。在总结前人研究的基础上,采用地质水文地质调查、物探、钻探、抽水试验、地下水动态观测、水化学测试、盆地地下水水位统测和综合研究等技术方法,查明了黑河中游盆地南部山盆交接带的地质构造接触关系、地层岩性接触关系及梨园河口白垩系风化壳含水层结构和水文地质参数。通过山区不同流域等级的地表水与地下水转化关系分析,将山区地下水对平原区侧向径流补给带划分为大中型河流河谷补给段和小微型河流或冲沟群流域构成的浅山带补给段。河谷补给段勘探资料较为丰富,多用达西断面流方法计算;针对浅山带补给段极为缺乏勘探资料的实际,以梨园河口断面径流量为参照,构建了浅山带岩性、汇水区面积、降水量等3 个变量的山区地下水对平原区侧向径流补给量的估算方法。估算出黑河中游盆地南部山区浅山带地下水对平原的侧向径流补给量为0.40×108 m3/a,河谷段基岩侧向补给量为0.07×108 m3/a;推算出河谷段第四系地下水补给量为0.30×108 m3/a;3 项补给量之和为0.77×108 m3/a,占盆地地下水资源量的3.0%。该研究为西北内陆干旱盆地山区地下水对平原区侧向径流补给量的估算提供了一个可供借鉴的实例。     

Identifying and quantifying urban recharge: a review

The sources of and pathways for groundwater recharge in urban areas are more numerous and complex than in rural environments. Buildings, roads, and other surface infrastructure combine with man-made drainage networks to change the pathways for precipitation. Some direct recharge is lost, but additional recharge can occur from storm drainage systems. Large amounts of water are imported into most cities for supply, distributed through underground pipes, and collected again in sewers or septic tanks. The leaks from these pipe networks often provide substantial recharge. Sources of recharge in urban areas are identified through piezometry, chemical signatures, and water balances. All three approaches have problems. Recharge is quantified either by individual components (direct recharge, water-mains leakage, septic tanks, etc.) or holistically. Working with individual components requires large amounts of data, much of which is uncertain and is likely to lead to large uncertainties in the final result. Recommended holistic approaches include the use of groundwater modelling and solute balances, where various types of data are integrated. Urban recharge remains an under-researched topic, with few high-quality case studies reported in the literature. Electronic Publication     

Sustainable groundwater development in the coastal Tra Vinh province in Vietnam under saltwater intrusion and climate change

Three-dimensional transient groundwater flow and saltwater transport models were constructed to assess the impacts of groundwater abstraction and climate change on the coastal aquifer of Tra Vinh province (Vietnam). The groundwater flow model was calibrated with groundwater levels (2007–2016) measured in 13 observation wells. The saltwater transport model was compared with the spatial distribution of total dissolved solids. Model performance was evaluated by comparing observed and simulated groundwater levels. The projected rainfalls from two climate models (MIROC5 and CRISO Mk3.6) were subsequently used to simulate possible effects of climate changes. The simulation revealed that groundwater is currently depleted due to overabstraction. Towards the future, groundwater storage will continue to be depleted with the current abstraction regime, further worsening in the north due to saltwater intrusion from inland trapped saltwater and on the coast due to seawater intrusion. Notwithstanding, the impact from climate change may be limited, with the computed groundwater recharge from the two climate models revealing no significant change from 2017 to 2066. Three feasible mitigation scenarios were analyzed: (1) reduced groundwater abstraction by 25, 35 and 50%, (2) increased groundwater recharge by 1.5 and 2 times in the sand dunes through managed aquifer recharge (reduced abstraction will stop groundwater-level decline, while increased recharge will restore depleted storage), and (3) combining 50% abstraction reduction and 1.5 times recharge increase in sand dune areas. The results show that combined interventions of reducing abstraction and increasing recharge are necessary for sustainable groundwater resources development in Tra Vinh province.

     

Load-displacement uncertainty of vertically loaded shallow footings on sands and effects on probabilistic settlement estimation

This article focuses on the statistical characterisation and stochastic modelling of the load-displacement behaviour of shallow footings on cohesionless soils and on the probabilistic estimation of settlement for serviceability limit state design (LSD). The study relies on a field database of 30 full-scale footings subjected to vertical loading with cone penetration testing data available for each site. The performance of three load-displacement models in replicating field data is assessed comparatively through statistical analysis. Load-displacement uncertainty is subsequently modelled probabilistically to perform Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS)-based estimation of footing settlement using the best-performing power law model. The dependence among load-displacement model parameters is investigated and replicated using copula theory. Samples are generated to account for parametric uncertainties in model inputs. The simulation output samples of settlement are examined statistically in order to assess the relevance of parametric and load-displacement uncertainties in settlement estimation, as well as the importance of accounting for correlation between power law model parameters. A simple analytical model for the estimation of settlement at any target reliability level is obtained on the basis of the outputs of MCS. The model can be practically implemented in geotechnical LSD at serviceability limit states.     

Modelling climate-change impacts on groundwater recharge in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia

A methodology is presented for assessing the average changes in groundwater recharge under a future climate. The method is applied to the 1,060,000 km² Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) in Australia. Climate sequences were developed based upon three scenarios for a 2030 climate relative to a 1990 climate from the outputs of 15 global climate models. Dryland diffuse groundwater recharge was modelled in WAVES using these 45 climate scenarios and fitted to a Pearson Type III probability distribution to condense the 45 scenarios down to three: a wet future, a median future and a dry future. The use of a probability distribution allowed the significance of any change in recharge to be assessed. This study found that for the median future, climate recharge is projected to increase on average by 5% across the MDB but this is not spatially uniform. In the wet and dry future scenarios the recharge is projected to increase by 32% and decrease by 12% on average across the MDB, respectively. The differences between the climate sequences generated by the 15 different global climate models makes it difficult to project the direction of the change in recharge for a 2030 climate, let alone the magnitude.     

Impact of climate change on groundwater recharge in a small catchment in the Black Forest, Germany

Temporal and spatial changes of the hydrological cycle are the consequences of climate variations. In addition to changes in surface runoff with possible floods and droughts, climate variations may affect groundwater through alteration of groundwater recharge with consequences for future water management. This study investigates the impact of climate change, according to the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B, A2 and B1, on groundwater recharge in the catchment area of a fissured aquifer in the Black Forest, Germany, which has sparse groundwater data. The study uses a water-balance model considering a conceptual approach for groundwater-surface water exchange. River discharge data are used for model calibration and validation. The results show temporal and spatial changes in groundwater recharge. Groundwater recharge is progressively reduced for summer during the twenty-first century. The annual sum of groundwater recharge is affected negatively for scenarios A1B and A2. On average, groundwater recharge during the twenty-first century is reduced mainly for the lower parts of the valley and increased for the upper parts of the valley and the crests. The reduced storage of water as snow during winter due to projected higher air temperatures causes an important relative increase in rainfall and, therefore, higher groundwater recharge and river discharge.     

Modeling water resources of a highly irrigated alluvial plain (Italy): calibrating soil and groundwater models

Modern and effective water management in large alluvial plains that have intensive agricultural activity requires the integrated modeling of soil and groundwater. The models should be complex enough to properly simulate several, often non-linear, processes, but simple enough to be effectively calibrated with the available data. An operative, practical approach to calibration is proposed, based on three main aspects. First, the coupling of two models built on well-validated algorithms, to simulate (1) the irrigation system and the soil water balance in the unsaturated zone and (2) the groundwater flow. Second, the solution of the inverse problem of groundwater hydrology with the comparison model method to calibrate the model. Third, the use of appropriate criteria and cross-checks (comparison of the calibration results and of the model outputs with hydraulic and hydrogeological data) to choose the final parameter sets that warrant the physical coherence of the model. The approach has been tested by application to a large and intensively irrigated alluvial basin in northern Italy.     

Groundwater Recharge and Mixing in Arid and Semiarid Regions: Heihe River Basin, Northwest China

A sound understanding of groundwater recharged from various sources occurring at different time scales is crucial for water management in arid and semi-arid river basins. Groundwater recharge sources and their geochemical evolution are investigated for the Heihe River Basin(HRB) in northwest China on the basis of a comprehensive compilation of geochemical and isotopic data. Geochemical massbalance modeling indicates that mountain-block recharge accounts for a small fraction(generally less than 5%) of the shallow and deep groundwater sustaining the oasis, whereas infiltration of rivers and irrigation water contribute most of the groundwater recharge. Dedolomitization is the primary process responsible for the changes in groundwater chemical and carbon isotope compositions from the piedmont to the groundwater discharge zone, where the dedolomitization is very likely enhanced by modern agricultural activities affecting the shallow groundwater quality. Analysis of radioactive isotopes suggests that these primary recharge sources occur at two different time scales. Radiocarbon-derived groundwater age profiles indicate a recharge rate of approximately 12 mm/year, which probably occurred during 2000–7000 years B.P., corresponding to the mid-Holocene humid period. The recharge of young groundwater on the tritium-dated time scale is much higher, about 360 mm/year in the oasis region. Infiltration from irrigation canals and irrigation return flow are the primary contributors to the increased young groundwater recharge. This study suggests that groundwater chemistry in the HRB has been influenced by the complex interaction between natural and human-induced geochemical processes and that anthropogenic effects have played a more significant role in terms of both groundwater quantity and quality.     

Groundwater recharge rates for regional groundwater modelling: a case study using GROWA in the Lower Rhine lignite mining area, Germany

Groundwater recharge rates calculated with the GROWA model have been applied as the recharge boundary condition for the regional groundwater model Rurscholle. This model simulates groundwater dynamics in the Pleistocene aquifers of the Lower Rhine lignite mining area (Germany). GROWA uses an area-differentiated approach to calculate recharge rates depending on runoff-relevant site characteristics, which are represented by a set of baseflow indices. The regional accuracy of the coupled groundwater and GROWA models has been checked using groundwater hydrographs as validation criteria. The results suggest that the current (unadjusted) version of GROWA underestimates the regional groundwater recharge rate by 10–20 mm/yr. The comparative analysis identified areas where recharge calculations could be improved by adjusting the baseflow indices for areas where runoff is dominated by slope, low water-logging and a low degree of sealing. Using the adjusted set of baseflow indices, the mean groundwater recharge rate of the Rurscholle region was modelled as approx. 170 mm/yr. This study highlights the benefit of using a coupled approach and being able to independently calibrate and validate groundwater recharge boundary conditions in regional groundwater models.     

潮白河再生水补给河道对周边浅层地下水影响的数值模拟研究

再生水在北京被广泛用于补给河道,2007年底至2017年共有2.3×108 m3再生水补给至潮白河顺义段。其污染物本底值较高（Cl?浓度约62~122 mg/L）,通过河床入渗补给到周边的含水层中,对周边地下水产生一定影响,尤其是浅层地下水。为了定量评价再生水补给河道对周边浅层地下水的影响,基于10年（2007—2017）的地下水监测数据,建立了再生水补给河道周边的地下水水流和溶质运移模型,模拟了受水区浅层地下水的水位和Cl?浓度的变化,分析了浅层地下水水量、Cl?负荷和NO₃-N负荷的变化。结果表明,再生水补给河道后的前2年（2007—2009）,河道周边浅层地下水水位迅速抬升了3~4 m,之后在再生水的持续补给下保持稳定。但受深层地下水开采影响,2007—2014年研究区整体浅层地下水的水量仍在下降。2014年底实施地下水压采措施后,浅层地下水水量从2014年底的3.76×108 m3恢复到了2017年底的3.85×108 m3。周边浅层地下水中的Cl?浓度从再生水补给前的5~75 mg/L变化到了补给后的50~130 mg/L,之后保持稳定。浅层地下水水质受再生水影响的范围从2008年底的11.7 km2扩大到2017年的26.7 km2,影响区内的Cl?负荷从2008年底的1.8×103 t增加到2017年底的3.8×103 t,NO₃-N负荷从2008年的29.8 t下降到2017年的11.9 t。尽管研究显示影响范围外的浅层地下水质受再生水影响不明显,但潜在的咸化和污染的隐患不容忽视,需要在后续研究中进一步明确。     

Residence times of shallow groundwater in West Africa: implications for hydrogeology and resilience to future changes in climate

Although shallow groundwater (<50 mbgl) sustains the vast majority of improved drinking-water supplies in rural Africa, there is little information on how resilient this resource may be to future changes in climate. This study presents results of a groundwater survey using stable isotopes, CFCs, SF₆, and ³H across different climatic zones (annual rainfall 400–2,000 mm/year) in West Africa. The purpose was to quantify the residence times of shallow groundwaters in sedimentary and basement aquifers, and investigate the relationship between groundwater resources and climate. Stable-isotope results indicate that most shallow groundwaters are recharged rapidly following rainfall, showing little evidence of evaporation prior to recharge. Chloride mass-balance results indicate that within the arid areas (<400 mm annual rainfall) there is recharge of up to 20 mm/year. Age tracers show that most groundwaters have mean residence times (MRTs) of 32–65 years, with comparable MRTs in the different climate zones. Similar MRTs measured in both the sedimentary and basement aquifers suggest similar hydraulic diffusivity and significant groundwater storage within the shallow basement. This suggests there is considerable resilience to short-term inter-annual variation in rainfall and recharge, and rural groundwater resources are likely to sustain diffuse, low volume abstraction.