Improvement of groundwater resources potential by artificial recharge technique: A case study of Charf El Akab aquifer in the Tangier region,Morocco

In arid and semi-arid zones,water is the most vulnerable resource to climate change.In fact,various techniques such as artificial recharge are adopted to restore aquifers and to ensure aquifer sustainability in relation to the accelerated pace of exploitation.Morocco is a Mediterranean country highly vulnerable to climate change,many of its main aquifers are subjected to excessive drawdowns.This technique is practiced to increase potentiality of these aquifers.In the Northwestern area of Morocco,the significant development experienced by Tangier City in the industrial,tourism,and commercial sectors will lead to increased water requirements-up to 5 067 L/s(159.8 mm^3)by 2030.However,the Charf El Akab aquifer system,subject to artificial recharge,is the only groundwater resource of Tangier region;hence,a rational management context is needed to ensure aquifer sustainability,and optimized exploitation under the background of differing constraints,such as increased water requirements,and climate change impacts.This work aims to respond,for the first time,to the Charf El Akab aquifer overexploitation problem,and to evaluate the future scenarios of its exploitation in the event of failure of one of the superficial resources.This work also presents a synthesized hydrodynamic modeling based on the results of the numerical simulations carried out using Feflow software for 2004(date of cessation of injections)and 2011(date of resumption of these facilities),making it possible to evaluate the impact of the artificial recharge on the piezometric level of the aquifer on a spatiotemporal scale.Finally,the exploitation scenarios have shown that the aquifer of Charf El Akab will not adequatly provide for the region's water requirements on the future horizon,entailing an optimal management of water resources in the region and an intentionally increased recharge rate.     

Impact of climate change on irrigation requirements in terms of groundwater resources

Climate change affects not only water resources but also water demand for irrigation. A large proportion of the world’s agriculture depends on groundwater, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. In several regions, aquifer resources face depletion. Groundwater recharge has been viewed as a by-product of irrigation return flow, and with climate change, aquifer storage of such flow will be vital. A general review, for a broad-based audience, is given of work on global warming and groundwater resources, summarizing the methods used to analyze the climate change scenarios and the influence of these predicted changes on groundwater resources around the world (especially the impact on regional groundwater resources and irrigation requirements). Future challenges of adapting to climate change are also discussed. Such challenges include water-resources depletion, increasing irrigation demand, reduced crop yield, and groundwater salinization. The adaptation to and mitigation of these effects is also reported, including useful information for water-resources managers and the development of sustainable groundwater irrigation methods. Rescheduling irrigation according to the season, coordinating the groundwater resources and irrigation demand, developing more accurate and complete modeling prediction methods, and managing the irrigation facilities in different ways would all be considered, based on the particular cases.     

Improvement of groundwater resources potential by artificial recharge technique: A case study of Charf El Akab aquifer in the Tangier region,Morocco

In arid and semi-arid zones, water is the most vulnerable resource to climate change. In fact, various techniques such as artificial recharge are adopted to restore aquifers and to ensure aquifer sustainability in relation to the accelerated pace of exploitation. Morocco is a Mediterranean country highly vulnerable to climate change, many of its main aquifers are subjected to excessive drawdowns. This technique is practiced to increase potentiality of these aquifers. In the Northwestern area of Morocco, the significant development experienced by Tangier City in the industrial, tourism, and commercial sectors will lead to increased water requirements-up to 5 067 L/s (159.8 mm3) by 2030. However, the Charf El Akab aquifer system, subject to artificial recharge, is the only groundwater resource of Tangier region; hence, a rational management context is needed to ensure aquifer sustainability, and optimized exploitation under the background of differing constraints, such as increased water requirements, and climate change impacts. This work aims to respond, for the first time, to the Charf El Akab aquifer overexploitation problem, and to evaluate the future scenarios of its exploitation in the event of failure of one of the superficial resources. This work also presents a synthesized hydrodynamic modeling based on the results of the numerical simulations carried out using Feflow software for 2004 (date of cessation of injections) and 2011 (date of resumption of these facilities), making it possible to evaluate the impact of the artificial recharge on the piezometric level of the aquifer on a spatiotemporal scale. Finally, the exploitation scenarios have shown that the aquifer of Charf El Akab will not adequatly provide for the region's water requirements on the future horizon, entailing an optimal management of water resources in the region and an intentionally increased recharge rate.     

Impact of climate change on groundwater recharge in a small catchment in the Black Forest, Germany

Temporal and spatial changes of the hydrological cycle are the consequences of climate variations. In addition to changes in surface runoff with possible floods and droughts, climate variations may affect groundwater through alteration of groundwater recharge with consequences for future water management. This study investigates the impact of climate change, according to the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B, A2 and B1, on groundwater recharge in the catchment area of a fissured aquifer in the Black Forest, Germany, which has sparse groundwater data. The study uses a water-balance model considering a conceptual approach for groundwater-surface water exchange. River discharge data are used for model calibration and validation. The results show temporal and spatial changes in groundwater recharge. Groundwater recharge is progressively reduced for summer during the twenty-first century. The annual sum of groundwater recharge is affected negatively for scenarios A1B and A2. On average, groundwater recharge during the twenty-first century is reduced mainly for the lower parts of the valley and increased for the upper parts of the valley and the crests. The reduced storage of water as snow during winter due to projected higher air temperatures causes an important relative increase in rainfall and, therefore, higher groundwater recharge and river discharge.     

Sustainable groundwater development in the coastal Tra Vinh province in Vietnam under saltwater intrusion and climate change

Three-dimensional transient groundwater flow and saltwater transport models were constructed to assess the impacts of groundwater abstraction and climate change on the coastal aquifer of Tra Vinh province (Vietnam). The groundwater flow model was calibrated with groundwater levels (2007–2016) measured in 13 observation wells. The saltwater transport model was compared with the spatial distribution of total dissolved solids. Model performance was evaluated by comparing observed and simulated groundwater levels. The projected rainfalls from two climate models (MIROC5 and CRISO Mk3.6) were subsequently used to simulate possible effects of climate changes. The simulation revealed that groundwater is currently depleted due to overabstraction. Towards the future, groundwater storage will continue to be depleted with the current abstraction regime, further worsening in the north due to saltwater intrusion from inland trapped saltwater and on the coast due to seawater intrusion. Notwithstanding, the impact from climate change may be limited, with the computed groundwater recharge from the two climate models revealing no significant change from 2017 to 2066. Three feasible mitigation scenarios were analyzed: (1) reduced groundwater abstraction by 25, 35 and 50%, (2) increased groundwater recharge by 1.5 and 2 times in the sand dunes through managed aquifer recharge (reduced abstraction will stop groundwater-level decline, while increased recharge will restore depleted storage), and (3) combining 50% abstraction reduction and 1.5 times recharge increase in sand dune areas. The results show that combined interventions of reducing abstraction and increasing recharge are necessary for sustainable groundwater resources development in Tra Vinh province.

     

Response of the groundwater system in the Guanzhong Basin (central China) to climate change and human activities

The Guanzhong Basin in central China features a booming economy and has suffered severe drought, resulting in serious groundwater depletion in the last 30 years. As a major water resource, groundwater plays a significant role in water supply. The combined impact of climate change and intensive human activities has caused a substantial decline in groundwater recharge and groundwater levels, as well as degradation of groundwater quality and associated changes in the ecosystems. Based on observational data, an integrated approach was used to assess the impact of climate change and human activities on the groundwater system and the base flow of the river basin. Methods included: river runoff records and a multivariate statistical analysis of data including historical groundwater levels and climate; hydro-chemical investigation and trend analysis of the historical hydro-chemical data; wavelet analysis of climate data; and the base flow index. The analyses indicate a clear warming trend and a decreasing trend in rainfall since the 1960s, in addition to increased human activities since the 1970s. The reduction of groundwater recharge in the past 30 years has led to a continuous depletion of groundwater levels, complex changes of the hydro-chemical environment, localized salinization, and a strong decline of the base flow to the river. It is expected that the results will contribute to a more comprehensive management plan for groundwater and the related eco-environment in the face of growing pressures from intensive human activities superimposed on climate change in this region.     

Evaluation of climate change effects in a coastal aquifer in Morocco using a density-dependent numerical model

A density-dependent numerical groundwater model was applied to study the climate change impact in a shallow aquifer in the Mediterranean coast of Morocco, the Saïdia aquifer. The stresses imposed to the model were derived from the IPCC emission scenarios and included recharge variation and sea level rise. The main effect of the climate change in the Saïdia aquifer will be a decrease in renewable resources, which in the worst-case scenario may decrease to 50–60% of present-day values, due to the decline in recharge and to a reduced inflow from the adjacent Triffa aquifer. The water quality will be affected mostly in the area immediately adjacent to the seashore, where salinity may increase up to 30 g/l. Localised areas may see a decrease in salinity due to the induced freshwater recharge from Oued Moulouya River and diminished inflow from high-salinity springs.     

Evaluation of the water resources potential at Dahaban region, western Saudi Arabia

Shallow renewable groundwater sources have been used to satisfy the domestic needs and the irrigation in many parts of Saudi Arabia. Increased demand for water resulting from accelerated development activities has placed excess stress on the renewable sources especially in coastal aquifers of the western region of Saudi Arabia. It is expected that the current and future development activities will increase the rate of groundwater mining of the coastal aquifer near the major city Jeddah and surrounding communities unless management measures are implemented. The current groundwater development of Dahaban coastal aquifer located at alluvial fan at the confluence of three major Wadis is depleting the shallow renewable groundwater sources and causes deterioration of its quality. Numerical models are known tools to evaluate groundwater management scenarios under a variety of development options under different hydrogeological regimes. In this study, two models are applied—the MODFLOW for evaluating the hydrodynamic behaviors of the aquifer and MT3D salinity distribution to the costal aquifer near Dahaban town. The models’ simulation evaluates two development scenarios—the impact of excessive abstraction and the water salinity variation keeping abstraction at its current or increases in levels with or without groundwater recharge taking place. The simulation evaluated two scenarios covering a 25-year period—keeping the current abstraction at its current and the other scenario is increasing the well abstraction by 50% for dry condition (no recharge) and wet condition (with recharge). The analysis reveals that, under the first scenario, the continuation of the current pumping rates will result in depletion of the aquifer resulting in drying of many wells and quality deterioration at the level of 2,500 ppm. The results are associated with the corresponding salinity distribution in the region. Simulation of salinity in the region is a density-independent problem as salt concentration does not exceed 2,000 ppm, which is little value compared with sea salinity that amounts to 40,000 ppm. It is not recommended to increase the pumping rate than the current values. However, for the purpose of increasing water resources in the region, it is recommended to install new wells in virgin zones west of Dahaban main road. Maps of high/low potential groundwater and maps of salinity zones (more or less than 1,000 ppm) are provided and could be used to identify zones of high groundwater potential for the four studied scenarios. The implemented numerical simulation of Dahaban aquifer was undertaken to assess the water resources potential in order to reduce the depletion of sources in the future.     

Comparison of the AVI,modified SINTACS and GALDIT vulnerability methods under future climate-change scenarios for a shallow low-lying coastal aquifer in southern Finland

A shallow unconfined low-lying coastal aquifer in southern Finland surrounded by the Baltic Sea is vulnerable to changes in groundwater recharge, sea-level rise and human activities. Assessment of the intrinsic vulnerability of groundwater under climate scenarios was performed for the aquifer area by utilising the results of a published study on the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge and sea-level rise on groundwater–seawater interaction. Three intrinsic vulnerability mapping methods, the aquifer vulnerability index (AVI), a modified SINTACS and GALDIT, were applied and compared. According to the results, the degree of groundwater vulnerability is greatly impacted by seasonal variations in groundwater recharge during the year, and also varies depending on the climate-change variability in the long term. The groundwater is potentially highly vulnerable to contamination from sources on the ground surface during high groundwater recharge rates after snowmelt, while a high vulnerability to seawater intrusion could exist when there is a low groundwater recharge rate in dry season. The AVI results suggest that a change in the sea level will have an insignificant impact on groundwater vulnerability compared with the results from the modified SINTACS and GALDIT. The modified SINTACS method could be used as a guideline for the groundwater vulnerability assessment of glacial and deglacial deposits in inland aquifers, and in combination with GALDIT, it could provide a useful tool for assessing groundwater vulnerability to both contamination from sources on the ground surface and to seawater intrusion for shallow unconfined low-lying coastal aquifers under future climate-change conditions.     

吉林省西部潜水资源与生态环境风险分析

吉林省西部是我国主要粮食产区,但区内农业水利规划管理同时面临潜水资源与生态环境双重风险。近20年来,区内曾尝试多种水资源利用模式,但缺少不同模式应用效果的定量化对比。文章建立了不同水资源利用模式,对比分析各模式的水资源与次生盐碱化风险。以洮儿河流域为例,采用循环神经网络预测2019—2023年该地区大气降水和地表水对地下水补给量;通过随机数值模拟预测现状开采、连续干旱、无序开采、地下水库建设、节水灌溉、旱田改水田6种情形下,区内潜水水位空间分布特征。以防止次生盐碱化为目标,定义水位埋深上限为1 m;以含水介质厚度为参考,定义水位埋深下限为12 m。遴选适合吉林省西部地区地下水资源可持续利用模式。结果显示:无序开采是导致区内水资源枯竭的主要诱因;地下水库建设和旱改水工程有助于潜水资源维护,但长期运行可加剧生态环境风险。节水灌溉（净采强度为2.0×108～3.0×108 m3/a）是降低区内水资源风险和生态环境风险的最佳方式。文章采用的神经网络—随机模拟分析方法成功预测了地下水位变化驱动因子和地下水位中长期变化趋势,为我国干旱半干旱地区潜水资源利用方案制定提供了新方法。     

Regional groundwater flow model for Abu Dhabi Emirate: scenario-based investigation

Despite the continuous increase in water supply from desalination plants in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, groundwater remains the major source of fresh water satisfying domestic and agricultural demands. Groundwater has always been considered as a strategic water source towards groundwater security in the Emirate. Understanding the groundwater flow system, including identification of recharge and discharge areas, is a crucial step towards proper management of this precious source. One main tool to achieve such goal is a groundwater model development. As such, the main aim of this paper is to develop a regional groundwater flow model for the surficial aquifer in Abu Dhabi Emirate using MODFLOW. Up to our knowledge, this is the first regional numerical groundwater flow model for Abu Dhabi Emirate. After steady state and transient model calibration, several future scenarios of recharge and pumping are simulated. Results indicate that groundwater pumping remains several times higher than aquifer recharge from rainfall, which provides between 2 and 5% of total aquifer recharge. The largest contribution of recharge is due to subsurface inflow from the eastern Oman Mountains. While rainfall induced groundwater level fluctuation is absent in the western coastal region, it reaches a maximum of 0.5 m in the eastern part of the Emirate. In contrast, over the past decades, groundwater levels have declined annually by 0.5 m on average with local extremes spanning from 93 m of decline to 60 m of increase. Results also indicate that a further decrease in groundwater levels is expected in most of Emirate. At other few locations, upwelling of groundwater is expected due to a combination of reduced pumping and increased infiltration of water from nonconventional sources. Beyond results presented here, this regional groundwater model is expected to provide an effective tool to water resources managers in Abu Dhabi. It will help to accurately estimate sustainable extraction rates, assess groundwater availability, and identify pathways and velocity of groundwater flow as crucial information for identifying the best locations for artificial recharge.     

Artificial groundwater recharge to a semi-arid basin: case study of Mujib aquifer,Jordan

Mujib watershed is an important groundwater basin which is considered a major source for drinking and irrigation water in Jordan. Increased dependence on groundwater needs improved aquifer management with respect to understanding deeply recharge and discharge issues, planning rates withdrawal, and facing water quality problems arising from industrial and agricultural contamination. The efficient management of this source depends on reliable estimates of the recharge to groundwater and is needed in order to protect Mujib basin from depletion. Artificial groundwater recharge was investigated in this study as one of the important options to face water scarcity and to improve groundwater storage in the aquifer. A groundwater model based on the MODFLOW program, calibrated under both steady- and unsteady-state conditions, was used to investigate different groundwater management scenarios that aim at protecting the Mujib basin. The scenarios include variations of abstraction levels combined with different artificial groundwater recharge quantities. The possibilities of artificial groundwater recharge from existing and proposed dams as well as reclaimed municipal wastewater were investigated. Artificial recharge options considered in this study are mainly through injecting water directly to the aquifer and through infiltration from reservoir. Three scenarios were performed to predict the aquifer system response under different artificial recharge options (low, moderate, and high) which then compared with no action (recharge) scenario. The best scenario that provides a good recovery for the groundwater table and that can be feasible is founded to be by reducing current abstraction rates by 20% and implementing the moderate artificial recharge rates of 26 million(M)m³/year. The model constructed in this study helps decision makers and planners in selecting optimum management schemes suitable for such arid and semi-arid regions.     

Groundwater sustainability assessment in coastal aquifers

The present work investigates the response of shallow, coastal unconfined aquifers to anticipated overdraft conditions and climate change effect using numerical simulation. The groundwater flow model MODFLOW and variable density groundwater model SEAWAT are used for this investigation. The transmissivity and specific yield estimated from the existing database range from 10 to 810 m ²/day and 0.08% to 10.92% respectively. After successful calibration with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency greater than 0.80, the values of horizontal hydraulic conductivity and specific yield of the unconfined aquifer were set in the range 1.85–61.90 m/day and 0.006–0.24 respectively. After validating the model, it is applied for forecasting the aquifer’s response to anticipated future scenarios of groundwater draft, recharge rate and sea level rise. The findings of the study illustrate that saltwater intrusion is intensified in the area adjoining the tidal rivers, rather than that due to the sea alone. Of all the scenarios simulated, the immense negative impact on groundwater quality emerges due to overdraft conditions and reduced recharge with the areal extent of seawater intrusion exceeding about 67% (TDS >1 kg/m ³). The study also arrives at the conclusion that, regional sea level rise of 1 mm/year has no impact on the groundwater dynamics of the aquifer.     

Climate change and groundwater resources in Thailand

The average temperature of Thailand is projected to increase by 2-3 °C, and the annual rainfall is projected to increase by 25% and up to 50% in certain areas. The climate change in future is expected to provide changes in hydrological cycle and therefore impacts the groundwater resources too. In this study, we analyzed the general climate change trends and reviewed the groundwater conditions of Thailand. The climate changes, hydrologic variability and the impact of climate change on groundwater sustainability are also discussed based on a national groundwater monitoring program. Currently, there are 864 groundwater monitoring stations and 1 524 monitoring wells installed in Thailand. Moreover, the impact of climate change on groundwater-dependent systems and sectors is also discussed according to certain case studies, such as saline water intrusion in coastal and inland areas. Managing aquifer recharge and other projects are examples of groundwater adaptation project for the future.     

Modelling climate-change impacts on groundwater recharge in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia

A methodology is presented for assessing the average changes in groundwater recharge under a future climate. The method is applied to the 1,060,000 km² Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) in Australia. Climate sequences were developed based upon three scenarios for a 2030 climate relative to a 1990 climate from the outputs of 15 global climate models. Dryland diffuse groundwater recharge was modelled in WAVES using these 45 climate scenarios and fitted to a Pearson Type III probability distribution to condense the 45 scenarios down to three: a wet future, a median future and a dry future. The use of a probability distribution allowed the significance of any change in recharge to be assessed. This study found that for the median future, climate recharge is projected to increase on average by 5% across the MDB but this is not spatially uniform. In the wet and dry future scenarios the recharge is projected to increase by 32% and decrease by 12% on average across the MDB, respectively. The differences between the climate sequences generated by the 15 different global climate models makes it difficult to project the direction of the change in recharge for a 2030 climate, let alone the magnitude.     

Groundwater resources assessment using numerical model: A case study in low-lying coastal area

The impacts of climate change and human pressure in groundwater have been greatest threats facing small islands. This paper represents a case study of groundwater responses towards the climate change and human pressures in Manukan Island Malaysia. SEAWAT-2000 was used for the simulations of groundwater response in study area. Simulations of six scenarios representing climate change and human pressures showed changes in hydraulic heads and chloride concentrations. Reduction in pumping rate and an increase in recharge rate can alter the bad effects of overdrafts in Manukan Island. In general, reduction in pumping rate and an increase in recharge rate are capable to restore and protect the groundwater resources in Manukan Island. Thus, for groundwater management options in Manukan Island, scenario 2 is capable to lessen the seawater intrusion into the aquifer and sustain water resources on a long-term basis. The selection of scenario 6 is the preeminent option during wet season. The output of this study provides a foundation which can be used in other small islands of similar hydrogeological condition for the purpose of groundwater resources protection.     

Impact of water demand on hydrological regime under climate and LULC change scenarios

The present study focuses on an assessment of the impact of future water demand on the hydrological regime under land use/land cover (LULC) and climate change scenarios. The impact has been quantified in terms of streamflow and groundwater recharge in the Gandherswari River basin, West Bengal, India. dynamic conversion of land use and its effects (Dyna-CLUE) and statistical downscaling model (SDSM) are used for quantifying the future LULC and climate change scenarios, respectively. Physical-based semi-distributed model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used for estimating future streamflow and spatiotemporally distributed groundwater recharge. Model calibration and validation have been performed using discharge data (1990–2016). The impacts of LULC and climate change on hydrological variables are evaluated with three scenarios (for the years 2030, 2050 and 2080). Temperature Vegetation Dyrness Index (TVDI) and evapotranspiration (ET) are considered for estimation of water-deficit conditions in the river basin. Exceedance probability and recurrence interval representation are considered for uncertainty analysis. The results show increased discharge in case of monsoon season and decreased discharge in case of the non-monsoon season for the years 2030 and 2050. However, a reverse trend is obtained for the year 2080. The overall increase in groundwater recharge is visible for all the years. This analysis provides valuable information for the irrigation water management framework.     

地下水对气候变化的敏感性研究进展

地下水是人类生活、生产、生态用水的重要水源。地下水含水层的补给及其开发利用是水资源可持续开发利用与管理的重要组成部分。浅层地下水的补给主要受制于气候变异与变化。气候变化影响研究从地表水扩展至地下水不仅有利于正确地评估可利用的淡水资源,而且对于改进气候模型,更完整的描写水文循环有重要的科学意义。自21世纪以来,欧美等国开始研究不同时空尺度的地下水补给的定量估算方法,并在气候变化对水资源影响的研究中,考虑了气候变化与人类活动对地下水补给的影响。目前在我国,无论对地下水观测资料的诊断分析,或对地下水补给模型的研制都尚属空白或起步阶段。本文对当前国际上研究地下水补给以及地下水对气候变化敏感性的研究现状予以综述,目的是为了推动我国关于气候变化对水资源影响的深入研究。     

Determination of water balance equation components in irrigated agricultural watersheds using SWAT and MODFLOW models : A case study of Samalqan plain in Iran

Increasing water demands,especially in arid and semi-arid regions,continuously exacerbate groundwater as the only reliable water resources in these regions.Samalqan watershed,Iran,is a groundwater-based irrigation watershed,so that increased aquifer extraction,has caused serious groundwater depletion.So that the catchment consists of surface water,the management of these resources is essential in order to increase the groundwater recharge.Due to the existence of rivers,the low thickness of the alluvial sediments,groundwater level fluctuations and high uncertainty in the calculation of hydrodynamic coefficients in the watershed,the SWAT and MODFLOW models were used to assess the impact of irrigation return flow on groundwater recharge and the hydrological components of the basin.For this purpose,the irrigation operation tool in the SWAT model was utilized to determine the fixed amounts and time of irrigation for each HRU(Hydrological Response Unit)on the specified day.Since the study area has pressing challenges related to water deficit and sparsely gauged,therefore,this investigation looks actual for regional scale analysis.Model evaluation criteria,RMSE and NRMSE for the simulated groundwater level were 1.8 m and 1.1%respectively.Also,the simulation of surface water flow at the basin outlet,provided satisfactory prediction(R²=0.92,NSE=0.85).Results showed that,the irrigation has affected the surface and groundwater interactions in the watershed,where agriculture heavily depends on irrigation.Annually 11.64 Mm3 water entered to the aquifer by surface recharge(precipitation,irrigation),transmission loss from river and recharge wells 5.8 Mm3 and ground water boundary flow(annually 20.5 Mm³).Water output in the watershed included ground water extraction and groundwater return flow(annually 46.4 Mm³)and ground water boundary flow(annually 0.68 Mm³).Overally,the groundwater storage has decreased by 9.14 Mm3 annually in Samalqan aquifer.This method can be applied to simulate the effects of surface water fluxes to groundwater recharge and river-aquifer interaction for areas with stressed aquifers where interaction between surface and groundwater cannot be easily assessed.     

The effect of possible climate change on natural groundwater recharge based on a simple model: a study of four karstic aquifers in SE Spain

The study presented in this paper constitutes an initial approach to the problematic task of evaluating the effects of possible climate change on natural water recharge to aquifers. To estimate such effects, a purpose-designed mathematical model termed Estimation of Recharge in Over-exploited Aquifers (ERAS) has been used. It enables to simulate the monthly water recharge to an aquifer, provided that prior knowledge of the exploitation to which it is subjected and the variation caused by these two actions on the piezometric level of the aquifer is available. The basic data required for its application are: precipitation, temperature, groundwater extraction, stored groundwater surface and storage coefficient. The main advantage presented by this model is its independence of the mechanism by which water is displaced through the ground and within the unsaturated zone. The ERAS code was applied to four over-exploited karstic aquifers in Alto Vinalopó (Alicante, Spain) with the goal of generating a synthesized series of values for natural groundwater recharge in each of the aquifers for the 100 years of the twentieth century. Each series thus obtained after being grouped into decades was subjected to statistical processing, which revealed that in every case a logarithmically decreasing trend was present.