Early Estimation of Seismic Hazard for Strong Earthquakes in Taiwan

A shakemap system providing rapid estimates of strong ground shaking could be useful for emergency response providers in a damaging earthquake. A hybrid procedure, which combines site-dependent ground motion prediction models and the limited observations of the Real-Time Digital stream output system (RTD system operated by Central Weather Bureau, CWB), was set up to provide a high-resolution shakemap in a near-real-time manner after damaging earthquakes in Taiwan. One of the main factors that affect the result of ground motion prediction analysis is the existence of site effects. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the local site effects and their influence in the ground shaking and then establish an early estimation procedure of potential hazard for damaging earthquakes. Based on the attenuation law, the site effects of each TSMIP station are discussed in terms of a bias function that is site and intensity-level dependent function. The standard deviation of the site-dependent ground motion prediction model can be significantly reduced. The nonlinear behavior of ground soil is automatically taken into account in the intensity-level dependent bias function. Both the PGA and the spectral acceleration are studied in this study. Based on the RTD data, event correctors are calculated and applied to precisely estimate the shakemap of damaging earthquakes for emergency response.     

巨厚沉积土夹火山岩场地非线性地震反应特性

地震基岩深度和土体动力本构模型的选取对核岛场地地震效应评价结果的合理性具有重要影响。以拟建某沿海核电厂深度470 m沉积土夹火山岩层场地的3个钻孔剖面为研究对象,采用一维等效线性波传分析（ELA）法、基于Matasovic本构模型和Davidenkov-Chen-Zhao（DCZ）本构模型的一维非线性分析（NLA）法,选取不同剪切波速的5个岩土层作为地震基岩,研究了输入地震动特性、地震基岩深度和土体动力本构模型的选取对巨厚沉积土夹火山岩层场地非线性地震反应特性的影响。结果表明：（1）以浅层硬岩夹层或深部土层作为地震基岩,NLA法计算的5%阻尼比的地表谱加速度SA的短周期部分较之ELA法的计算值大,但两者计算的地表SA谱的长周期部分几乎一致;（2）基于Matasovic模型和DCZ模型的NLA法计算的地表SA谱谱形和峰值加速度随深度的变化趋势基本一致;（3）从NLA法计算的地表峰值加速度和累积绝对速度而言,以剪切波速约2 500 m/s的浅层硬岩夹层作为地震基岩是适宜的。     

Seismic response analysis of the deep saturated soil deposits in Shanghai

The quaternary deposits in Shanghai are horizontal soil layers of thickness up to about 280 m in the urban area with an annual groundwater table between 0.5 and 0.7 m from the surface. The characteristics of deep saturated deposits may have important influences upon seismic response of the ground in Shanghai. Based on the Biot theory for porous media, the water-saturated soil deposits are modeled as a two-phase porous system consisting of solid and fluid phases, in this paper. A nonlinear constitutive model for predicting the seismic response of the ground is developed to describe the dynamic characters of the deep-saturated soil deposits in Shanghai. Subsequently, the seismic response of a typical site with 280 m deep soil layers, which is subjected to four base excitations (El Centro, Taft, Sunan, and Tangshan earthquakes), is analyzed in terms of an effective stress-based finite element method with the proposed constitutive model. Special emphasis is given to the computed results of accelerations, excess pore-water pressures, and settlements during the seismic excitations. It has been found that the analysis can capture fundamental aspects of the ground response and produce preliminary results for seismic assessment.     

Development of an inverse analysis framework for extracting dynamic soil behavior and pore pressure response from downhole array measurements

Observations from earthquakes over the past several decades have highlighted the importance of local site conditions on propagated ground motions. Downhole arrays are deployed to measure motions at the ground surface and within the soil profile, and also to record the pore pressure response within the soft soil profiles during excitation. The degradation of soil stiffness as excess pore pressures are generated during earthquake events has also been observed. An inverse analysis framework is developed and demonstrated to directly extract soil material behavior including pore water pressure (PWP) generation from downhole array measurements that can then be readily used in 1D nonlinear site response analysis. The self‐learning simulations (SelfSim) inverse analysis framework, previously developed for total stress site response analysis, is extended to extract PWP generation behavior of the soil in addition to cyclic response during ground shaking. A Neural Network based constitutive model is introduced to represent PWP generation during cyclic loading. A new analysis scheme is introduced that can use data from co‐located piezometer and accelerometer sensors. The successful performance of the proposed framework is demonstrated using four synthetic vertical array recordings. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Applications of Engineering Seismology for Site Characterization

We determined the seismic model of the soil column within a residential project site in Istanbul, Turkey. Specifically, we conducted a refraction seismic survey at 20 locations using a receiver spread with 484.5-Hz vertical geophones at 2-m intervals. We applied nonlinear tomography to first-arrival times to estimate the P-wave velocity-depth profiles and performed Rayleigh-wave inversion to estimate the S-wave velocity-depth profiles down to a depth of 30 m at each of the locations. We then combined the seismic velocities with the geotechnical borehole information regarding the lithology of the soil column and determined the site-specific geotechnical earthquake engineering parameters for the site. Specifically, we computed the maximum soil amplification ratio, maximum surface-bedrock acceleration ratio, depth interval of significant acceleration, maximum soil-rock response ratio, and design spectrum periods TA-TB. We conducted reflection seismic surveys along five line traverses with lengths between 150 and 300 m and delineated landslide failure surfaces within the site. We recorded shot gathers at 2-m intervals along each of the seismic line traverses using a receiver spread with 4 840-Hz vertical geophones at 2-m intervals. We applied nonlinear tomograpby to first-arrival times to estimate a P-wave velocity-depth model and analyzed the reflected waves to obtain a seismic image of the deep near-surface along each of the line traverses.     

Reliability updating in geotechnical engineering including spatial variability of soil

At geotechnical sites, deformation measurements are routinely performed during the construction process. In this paper, it is shown how information from such measurements can be utilized to update the reliability estimate of the geotechnical site at future construction stages. A recently proposed method for Bayesian updating of the reliability is successfully applied in conjunction with a stochastic nonlinear geotechnical finite element model. Therein, uncertainty in the soil material properties is modelled by non-Gaussian random fields. The structural reliability evaluations required for the Bayesian updating are carried out by means of subset simulation, an efficient adaptive Monte Carlo method. The approach is demonstrated through an application to a sheet pile wall at a deformation-sensitive geotechnical construction site.     

Equivalent-linear seismic analyses of MSW landfills using DEEPSOIL

Responses of municipal solid waste (MSW) landfills during earthquakes are gaining worldwide importance due to the devastating nature of earthquake on landfills. Apart from the post-earthquake safety and serviceability issues which pose environmental and public health problems, other important concerns are related to the behavior of closed landfills during and after earthquake. In present study, one dimensional (1-D) equivalent-linear analysis was carried out to model the behaviour of MSW landfills subjected to seismic base accelerations using the DEEPSOIL software. Influence of foundation types, height and stiffness of MSW landfills and seismic base accelerations on the seismic responses in terms of surface accelerations, normalized stresses (i.e., shear stress/effective vertical stress) and spectral amplification are evaluated. The results showed that height and stiffness of landfills, type of foundation and amount of seismic base acceleration and period play important role in evaluating the seismic responses of MSW landfills. Assumption of constant unit weight and shear wave velocity for landfills underestimates maximum horizontal acceleration (MHA), normalized shear stresses and spectral amplification at the top of landfills. Landfill models with smaller heights (up to 40 m high) showed higher amplification ratio for low seismic base accelerations with mean period near to that of soil and landfill resonance for all sites. A complex behavior was observed at higher seismic base accelerations due to non-linear behavior of landfill materials.     

Seismic Ground Motion Expected for the Eastern District of Naples

The seismic ground motion of a test area in the eastern district of Naples is computed with a hybrid technique based on the mode summation and the finite difference methods. This technique allows us the realistic modelling of source and propagation effects, including local soil conditions. In the modelling, we consider the 1980 Irpinia earthquake, a good example of strong shaking for the area of Naples, which is located about 90 km from the epicenter.The detailed geological setting is reconstructed from a large number of drillings. The sub-soil is mainly formed by alluvial (ash, stratified sand and peat) and pyroclastic materials overlying a pyroclastic rock (yellow neapolitan tuff), representing the neapolitan bedrock. The detailed information available on mechanical properties of the sub-soil and its geometry warrants the application of the sophisticated hybrid technique.As expected, the sedimentary cover causes an increase of the signal's amplitudes and duration. If thin peat layers are present, the amplification effects are reduced, and the peak ground accelerations are similar to those observed for the bedrock model. This can be explained by the backscattering of wave energy at such layers, that tend to seismically decouple the upper from the lower part of the structure.For SH-waves, the influence of the variations of the S-wave velocities on the spectral amplification is studied, by considering locally measured velocities and values determined from near-by down-hole measurements. The comparison between the computed spectral amplifications confirms the key role of an accurate determination of the seismic velocities of the different layers.The comparison performed between a realistic 2-D seismic response and a standard 1-D response, based on the vertical propagation of waves in a plane layered structure, shows considerable difference, from which it is evident that serious caution must be taken in the modelling of expected ground motion at a specific site.     

Evaluating the effects of ground motion parameters on response spectra in Uttarakhand Himalayas,India

Uttarakhand, a state of India, is located in seismically active Himalayan region and in the proximity of plate boundaries. The effects of important ground motion parameters like magnitude, distance, and local geology and site conditions on acceleration response spectra are examined in Uttarakhand Himalayas in this work. A total of 447 strong ground motion histories (horizontal and vertical) from 42 earthquakes were selected. The results show that the shape of the acceleration response spectra is influenced by the local site conditions and regional geology. The studies are carried out for two categories of sites, i.e., rock sites and soft soil sites. The maximum average horizontal spectral amplification for rock sites is 2.7 at 0.1 s, while for soft soil sites, it is found to be 3.2 at 0.2 s. In the same way, the maximum average vertical spectral amplification for rock is found to be 2.7 at 0.1 s, while for soft soil, it is found to be 2.95 at 0.1 s. The average spectral amplification in vertical component also shifts from low period (rock) to high period (soft soil). The level of spectra increases with decrease in distance for rock sites as well as soft soil sites. When comparing different magnitude earthquakes in different geological conditions, the response spectra are found to follow each other up to 0.04 s, while for period greater than 0.04 s, the spectra of higher magnitude earthquake is observed on the higher side. For soft soil sites, spectra from different magnitude earthquakes are observed to follow each other up to 0.1 s, beyond which they get separated.     

An effective procedure for seismic hazard analysis including nonlinear soil response

This paper presents probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) of Tehran, Iran, accounting the effect of nonlinear soil response. It is well-known that soil nonlinearity and its accurate prediction could play important role in seismic hazard study. For this purpose, two different approaches have been carried out for predicting the hazard curves by (1) applying site modifications to the ground motion prediction equation based on generic site classes and use of constant coefficients (2) using a close-form solution that modifies the hazard results at the rock level. Also, efficiency of the Monte Carlo method in modeling of amplification function for the six selected sites in the study area was examined. Results showed important effect of nonlinear soil response mainly for frequencies lower than 8?Hz, which should be considered properly in hazard estimation. As an interesting subject, influence of soil plasticity index (PI) on hazard estimation of clayey sites including the nonlinear soil response was evaluated.     

边坡失效概率估计的高斯过程动态响应面法

针对传统响应面法在求解具有高度非线性隐式功能函数边坡可靠性问题上的局限性,采用适用于处理高维度、小样本、非线性回归问题的高斯过程回归模型构建隐式功能函数的响应面,将高斯过程响应面与蒙特卡罗模拟法相结合,通过构造合理的迭代方式,在利用高斯过程回归模型的不确定性评价功能获取最优采样点的基础上,实现了高斯过程响应面动态更新,由此提出了边坡失效概率快速估计的高斯过程动态响应面法。利用数值算例验证了该方法的有效性,在此基础上对3个边坡算例进行了可靠性分析。结果表明,与传统响应面法相比较,该方法计算精度与计算效率明显较高,易于与既有的边坡分析软件相结合,且实现容易,适用于边坡可靠性的快速分析。     

A comparative study on linear and nonlinear site response analysis

Site response analysis is usually the first step of any seismic soil-structure study. Geotechnical earthquake engineers and engineering geologist have been trying to find both practical and most appropriate solution techniques for ground response analysis under earthquake loadings. The paper attempts to give a critical overview of the field of site response analysis. In this paper, the influences of nonlinearity on the site response analysis summarized and were evaluated with a numerical example. Site response of a two layered soil deposit with the assumption of linear and rigid base bedrock (or viscoelastic half-space) was analyzed by using linear and nonlinear approaches. The amplification spectrum of the soil column is computed between the top and the bottom of this soil deposit. Nonlinear analysis was compared with the linear method of analysis. Steps involved in ground response analyses to develop site-specific response spectra at a soil site are briefly summarized. Some of the well-known site response analysis methods are summarized and similarities and differences between linear and nonlinear methods are compared by a numerical example.     

基于连续小波变换的斜坡动力响应特征分析

川西北地区深切峡谷发育,地震扰动频繁。峡谷内高陡岩质斜坡在强震扰动下,通常会发生震裂松弛,进而导致失稳,因此研究其强震响应意义重大。2019年四川长宁M_s6.0级地震触发了布置在石棉县城南桠河两岸的3台强震监测仪器,通过对捕捉到的强震数据进行连续小波变换之后,获取了其时频信息。分析结果表明:（1）S波在频域上分为两种成分,其主频值分别为3.5 Hz和1.1 Hz附近;（2）山脊处的地震动放大效应主要体现为S波相对高频成分上能量的增加而低频部分则无显著变化;（3）覆盖层场地自振频率与S波低频成分主频相近,二者产生共振,导致S波低频放大与高频衰减效应;（4）地震动响应具有极强的方向性,水平向地震动放大效应比垂直向更为显著。     

指数函数剪切模量土层的地震随机反应

基于改进的一维剪切梁模型[1],对剪切模量为其深度的某一指数函数的成层非均质土层,推导了确定自振频率、振型函数、参与系数及稳态动力响应的封闭型解析表达式。首次证明了这种土层振型函数的正交性,利用随机振动理论,并基于基岩输入地震加速度的功率谱密度函数：白噪声谱和过滤白噪声谱,研究了该土层对地震的随机动力响应问题。计算表明：(1)在基岩输入地震加速度的功率谱为白噪声谱的情况下,土层的最大期望反应,均有别于过滤白噪声谱时的相应值。(2)平稳输入与输出过高地估计了土层的随机响应。     

Soil height randomness influence on seismic response: Case of an Algiers site

The paper deals with the effect of the depth to bedrock randomness on the seismic response of an Algiers site in time and frequency domains. Stochastic soil profile seismic analysis is carried out via Monte Carlo simulations coupled to the stiffness matrix method. The soil height is assumed to be a random variable with a log-normal distribution. The stochastic behavior of extreme ground acceleration and its response spectrum, transfer function, fundamental frequency, maximum amplitude, short- and mid-period amplification factors are derived from 1000 samples, as a parametric study is performed accounting for the influence of the coefficient of variation of the depth to bedrock. As the study herein considers a SH wave propagation pattern (SH stands for shear horizontal), the accelerations under study correspond to the E–W and N–S horizontal directions. The seismic acceleration corresponds to the Boumerdes earthquake (Algeria, May 21, 2003, M_w = 6.5). The probability density functions of the output parameters are derived using the maximum entropy principle, and compared to the log-normal distribution.The soil height heterogeneity causes an increase in the fundamental frequency of the soil profile, as well as a wider frequency content, in such a way that a larger number of structures are concerned by the resonance phenomenon.     

Equivalent-Linear Seismic Ground Response Analysis of Some Typical Sites in Mumbai

Any earthquake event is associated with a rupture mechanism at the source, propagation of seismic waves through underlying rock and finally these waves travel through the soil layers to the particular site of interest. The bedrock motion is significantly modified at the ground surface due to the presence of local soil layers above the bedrock beneath the site of interest. The estimation of the amplifications in ground response due to the local soil sites is a complex problem to the designers and the problem is more important for mega cities like Mumbai in India, where huge population may get affected due to devastations of earthquake. In the present study, the effect of local soil sites in modifying ground response is studied by performing one dimensional equivalent-linear ground response analysis for some of the typical Mumbai soil sites. Field borelog data of some typical sites in Mumbai city viz. Mangalwadi site, Walkeswar site, BJ Marg near Pandhari Chawl site are considered in this study. The ground responses are observed for range of input motions and the results are presented in terms of surface acceleration time history, ratio of shear stress to vertical effective stress versus time, acceleration response spectrum, Fourier amplitude ratio versus frequency etc. The typical amplifications of ground accelerations considering four strong ground motions with wide variation of low to high MHA, frequency contents and durations are obtained. Results show that MHA, bracketed duration, frequency content have significant effects on the amplification of seismic accelerations for typical 2001 Bhuj motion. The peak ground acceleration amplification factors are found to be about 2.50 for Mangalwadi site, 2.60 for Walkeswar site and 3.45 for BJ Marg site using 2001 Bhuj input motion. The response spectrum along various soil layers are obtained which will be useful for designers for earthquake resistant design of geotechnical structures in Mumbai for similar sites in the absence of site specific data.     

Site-specific earthquake response study for hazard assessment in Kolkata city,India

The assessment of local site effects on seismic ground motions is of great importance in earthquake engineering practice. Several destructive earthquakes in the past have demonstrated that the amplification of ground motion and associated damage to structures due to local site conditions is a significant consideration in earthquake hazard analysis. A recent paper published in this journal highlights the hazard posed by earthquakes in the megacity of Kolkata in India due to its seismic and geological settings. The seismic hazard assessment study speculates that the deep alluvial deposit in the city may increase the seismic hazard probably due to the amplification of the seismic energies. This paper focuses on the seismic response studies of the various soil strata (i.e. for local subsurface conditions) obtained from various construction sites in the city for predicted earthquake. It is very well recognized that site response studies (a part of seismic microhazard zonation for urban areas) are the first step towards performance-based foundation design or seismic risk analysis and mitigation strategy. One of the problems for carrying out site-specific study in Kolkata is the lack of recorded strong motion data in the city. Hence, this paper outlines a methodology to carry out site-specific study, where no strong motion data or seismic data are available. The methodology uses wavelet-based spectrum compatibility approach to generate synthetic earthquake motions and equivalent linear method for seismic site response analysis. The Mega City of Kolkata has been considered to explain the methodology. Seismic hazard zonation map by the Bureau of Indian Standards classifies the City of Kolkata as moderate seismic zone (Zone III) with a zone factor 0.16. On the other hand, GSHAP(Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program) map which is based on 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years specifies a maximum peak ground acceleration (PGA) of 1.6 m/s² (0.163 g) for this region. In the present study, the seismic response has been carried out based on GSHAP. The results of the analysis indicate the amplification of ground motion in the range of 4.46–4.82 with the fundamental period ranging from 0.81 to 1.17 s. Furthermore, the maximum spectral accelerations vary in the range of 0.78–0.95 g.     

Site response zones and short-period earthquake ground motion projections for the Las Vegas Basin

A deterministic seismic hazard analysis was conducted to address the effect of local soil conditions on earthquake-induced strong ground motion in the Las Vegas Basin, Nevada (US). Using a large geological and geotechnical database, two response units were defined: a fine-grained unit, predominantly clay; and a coarse-grained unit, predominantly gravel. A moderate number of high-quality shallow shear wave velocity measurements were collected from which characteristic shear wave velocity profiles were developed for each response unit. An equivalent-linear one-dimensional site response model was used. The model was calibrated using a basin-wide, small-strain ground motion database. Calibration tests showed that ground motion projections become increasingly conservative with increasing ground-motion amplitude. Projections were overconservative for the coarse-grained response unit, likely due to the sparseness of the velocity database. For the earthquake response analyses, historical ground motions were used to model characteristic ‘bedrock’ motion for earthquakes on 10 faults judged to be critical. Response spectral envelopes were generated for each unit through Monte-Carlo simulations. For the fine-grained response unit, 95th percentile peak ground acceleration, peak spectral acceleration and predominant period were 310 cm/s², 1100 cm/s², and 0.29 s, respectively. With respect to codified design spectra, projections are lower at short periods and higher at long periods. Projections of peak spectral accelerations for the coarse-grained response unit, were more than double that of codified spectra; however, they are believed to be overconservative. Near-fault effects and basin-edge effects, though potentially important, were not considered in these analyses.     

基于修正阻尼的土体非线性模型及其在Abaqus中的实现

地震等随机循环荷载作用时,常需定义较为复杂的加卸载准则(如扩展Masing准则)来描述土体应力-应变滞回曲线,导致求解过程中需预留大量的状态变量,不便于编程实现;同时,现有Masing模型及其改进模型大多仅对动剪切模量曲线进行拟合,还鲜有考虑对阻尼比曲线的拟合。针对以上两个问题,构建了基于修正阻尼的不规则加卸载准则。该准则克服了上大圈准则需要记忆所有转向点的问题,只需要记忆当前转向点和历史最值,记忆量大大减小;同时该准则能同时考虑动剪切模量和阻尼比曲线,达到了修正阻尼比的目的。基于Matasovic骨架曲线,结合提出的加卸载准则,提出了土体非线性模型并将其开发于Abaqus软件中,通过求解Mississippi湾场地地震反应,并与Deepsoil软件和Davidenkov-Chen-Zhao(DCZ)模型计算得到的场地地震反应结果进行对比分析,验证了所提不规则加卸载准则的正确性。同时,对日本KiK-net强震台网的KSRH10场地进行了地震反应分析,并与加速度时程记录及其谱加速度进行比较,验证了所提模型的适用性。     

基于随机响应面法的边坡系统可靠度分析

提出了一套基于随机响应面法的边坡系统可靠度分析方法。该方法首先从大量潜在滑动面中筛选出代表性滑动面。针对每条代表性滑动面,采用Hermite多项式展开建立其安全系数与土体参数间的非线性显式函数关系（即随机响应面）。然后,采用直接蒙特卡洛模拟计算边坡系统失效概率。在蒙特卡罗模拟中,采用所有代表性滑动面的随机响应面计算每一组样本所对应的边坡最小安全系数。最后,以两个典型多层边坡系统可靠度问题为例验证了该方法的有效性。结果表明：文中提出的边坡系统可靠度分析方法能够有效地识别边坡代表性滑动面,具有较高的计算精度和效率,并且确定代表性滑动面时无需计算滑动面间的相关系数。同时该方法可以有效地计算低失效概率水平的边坡系统可靠度,为含相关非正态参数的边坡系统可靠度问题提供了一条有效的分析途径。此外,多层边坡可能同时存在多条潜在滑动面,基于单一滑动面（如临界确定性滑动面）或者部分代表性滑动面进行边坡系统可靠度分析均会低估边坡失效概率。