Preliminary Analysis of the Temporal Patterns of Heavy Rainfall across the Southeastern United States

This paper examines trends in heavy rainfall events across the southeastern United States over the past century. Time series of the number of annual storm events over a 76.2 mm threshold were used for analysis. Significant trends that had some spatial coherence were identified. Increasing trends were detected in a region extending from northeastern Texas to the Appalachians, with a weaker signal of decreasing events along the East Coast. These patterns may be linked to fluctuations in the strength and migration of the Bermuda High.     

Spatial trends of dustfall over northern China in the spring and their influencing factors

The spatial trends of dustfall of different sizes over northern China during April and May 2001,and March 2002,and their influencing factors,were analyzed.We divided the dustfall into seven grades based on particle size.Total dustfall and dustfall for each grade were highest in desert regions then in regions undergoing desertification,and the total dustfall,dustfall 100 μm and dustfall 250 μm were higher in western agricultural regions closer to desert areas than in eastern agricultural regions.The spatial trends in dustfall 300 μm in diameter were most strongly correlated with dust events,and the content of coarse particles increased with increasing severity of dust events.Because the spatial trend for dust events appears to be controlled by geomorphic conditions,vegetation coverage,soil moisture,and the distance from dust source,dustfall 300 μm in diameter appears to have the same controlling factors as dust events,but the control decreases with increasing particle size.Wind,the driving force for dust emissions,also influenced the spatial trends in dustfall 200 μm in diameter,and especially for dustfall 50 to 100 μm in diameter.Although dustfall 300 μm in diameter and precipitation were not strongly spatially correlated,there is some evidence that high precipitation decreased deposition by restraining blowing sand.The coarser the dustfall,the weaker the correlation with wind speed;however,transport of larger particles still occurs,and further research will be required to test the possibility that this dust is entrained mainly by the small-scale dust devils that are commonly observed in the study area.     

Trends in the near-zero range of the minimum air-temperature distribution

This study estimated the trends in the number of days that fall within the near-zero (0?°C) range of the temperature continuum. This narrow range has importance for potential transportation hazards and freeze-thaw cycles. While the tails of the air-temperature distribution and their trends often are closely examined under the climate change context, the frequency and trend of other portions of the air-temperature distribution can be equally important, as many societal impacts are caused by events in the non-tail region, such as near-zero °C temperatures (NZT). Examining the trend of the number of NZT days over the conterminous USA for the period of 1948–1949 through 2010–2011, we found three distinct spatial clusters. The most distinctive spatial clusters are found along the West Coast (positive temperature trends leading to a decrease in NZT days), the High Plains and Northern Rockies (positive temperature trends leading to an increase in NZT days), and the southeastern USA (negative temperature trends leading to an increase in NZT days). While trends in the number of NZT days are linked to changes in mean minimum air temperature, increasing minimum temperature leads to a positive trend at NZT days only at some locations.     

基于日SPEI的近55 a西南地区极端干旱事件时空演变特征

利用1960~2014年中国西南地区141个气象台站的逐日气象资料,引入一个新的干旱指数——逐日标准化降水蒸散指数（日SPEI）,对极端干旱事件的年代际、年际、季节内变化及持续性特征进行了分析,结果表明：空间上,近55 a西南春季和年极端干旱程度呈一致的减弱趋势,重庆、四川与贵州的交界处及四川西北部极端干旱程度明显缓解,而夏、秋两季极端干旱表现出增强的趋势并有一定的区域性特征。时间上,春季和全年极端干旱频率、强度和持续天数逐渐减少,春季极端干旱的减弱程度较全年明显;夏、秋两季极端干旱频率、强度和持续天数呈增加趋势,夏季极端干旱的加重趋势比秋季明显。从极端干旱事件的持续性来看,20世纪60年代和21世纪初（2000~2014年）西南遭受的极端干旱最严重,持续期达60 d以上的站点分别占到站点总数的60%和73%。     

A rain on snow climatology and temporal analysis for the eastern United States

ABSTRACT

Rain-on-snow (ROS) has the potential to produce devastating floods by enhancing runoff from snowmelt. Although a common phenomenon across the eastern United States, little research has focused on ROS in this region. This study used a gridded observational snow dataset from 1960–2009 to establish a comprehensive seasonal climatology of ROS for this region. Additionally, different rain and snow thresholds were compared while considering temporal trends in ROS occurrence at four grid cells representing individual locations. Results show most ROS events occur in MAM (March-April-May). ROS events identified with rainfall >1 cm are more frequent near the east coast and events identified with >1 cm snow loss are more common in higher latitudes and/or elevations. Decreasing trends in DJF (December-January-February) ROS events were identified near the coastal areas, with increasing trends in the northern portion of the domain. Significant decreasing trends in MAM ROS are likewise present on a regional scale. Factors playing a role in snowpack depth and rainfall, such as movement of storm tracks in this region, should be considered with future work to discern mechanisms causing the changes in ROS frequency.     

过去50年内蒙古极端气候事件时空格局特征

为了掌握内蒙古极端气候事件的发生趋势与时空格局,本文运用内蒙古自治区境内46个国家级气象站点的日值记录数据,计算与植被生长的水热条件及寒旱灾害直接相关的极端气候事件指数,分析过去50年内蒙古温度和降水气候事件的时空演变特征。研究结果表明,研究区极端温度事件的发生频率与持续时间迅速变化发生于20世纪90年代以来,60年代至80年代末呈平稳态势。表征低温事件的霜日日数（FD0）、冷昼日数（TX10p）、冷夜日数（TN10p）、冷持续指数（CSDI）等指数均呈现下降趋势,同时表征高温事件的夏日指数（SU25）、作物生长期（GSL）、暖昼日数（TX90p）、暖夜日数（TN90p）、热持续指数（WSDI）则均呈上升趋势。与极端高温事件发生频率的加剧在90年代初开始凸显不同,表征强降水事件发生频率和强度的极端降水指标的显著变化发生在近10年。研究区极端温度指数过去50年的变化过程几乎没有明显的空间分异特征,但是在位于农牧交错区的部分站点的强降水事件呈现出与大多数站点不同的特征,最近10年的强降水事件高于前一时段,而其他多数站点最近10年的极端降水指数均低于前一时段。     

向极跨越70°N气旋的主要特征分析

北极地区以南生成并向北移动进入极区的气旋,在移动发展过程中常伴随大风、降水和升温等过程,对中低纬度地区物质和热量向极地输送起着重要作用,并对极区大气、海洋和海冰的变化产生一定影响。基于欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)发布的1979—2015年的海平面气压再分析数据产品,利用气旋自动识别和追踪算法,开展气旋的识别和追踪,获得向极跨越70°N气旋的数量、强度、活动轨迹及北向运动纬距等主要特征如下:该类气旋在数量上,春、冬季多于夏、秋季,年总数量和春、秋、冬季均呈减少趋势;强气旋易发于冬季,弱气旋多发于夏季;该类气旋活动轨迹,冬季集中分布在海上,夏季在陆地上;该类气旋北向运动纬距整体平均为9.2°,冬季平均最大,为10.2°,夏季平均最小,为7.3°;在年际变化上,年平均和春、冬季平均呈增长趋势,夏、秋季平均呈减少趋势;在年代际变化上,年平均和夏、冬季平均从1979—1988年到1989—1998年阶段都是减小的,到1999—2008年阶段是增大的,其后再减小,春、秋季则无明显趋势变化。     

过去50年内蒙古极端气候事件时空格局特征简

为了掌握内蒙古极端气候事件的发生趋势与时空格局,本文运用内蒙古自治区境内46个国家级气象站点的日值记录数据,计算与植被生长的水热条件及寒旱灾害直接相关的极端气候事件指数,分析过去50年内蒙古温度和降水气候事件的时空演变特征。研究结果表明,研究区极端温度事件的发生频率与持续时间迅速变化发生于20世纪90年代以来,60年代至80年代末呈平稳态势。表征低温事件的霜日日数（FD0）、冷昼日数（TX10p）、冷夜日数（TN10p）、冷持续指数（CSDI）等指数均呈现下降趋势,同时表征高温事件的夏日指数（SU25）、作物生长期（GSL）、暖昼日数（TX90p）、暖夜日数（TN90p）、热持续指数（WSDI）则均呈上升趋势。与极端高温事件发生频率的加剧在90年代初开始凸显不同,表征强降水事件发生频率和强度的极端降水指标的显著变化发生在近10年。研究区极端温度指数过去50年的变化过程几乎没有明显的空间分异特征,但是在位于农牧交错区的部分站点的强降水事件呈现出与大多数站点不同的特征,最近10年的强降水事件高于前一时段,而其他多数站点最近10年的极端降水指数均低于前一时段。     

Policy-relevant indicators for mapping the vulnerability of urban populations to extreme heat events: A case study of Philadelphia

The recent global increase in extreme heat events linked to climate change is projected to continue. The additive effect of urban heat islands from impervious surfaces and urban heat emissions (e.g., from transportation and building cooling) exacerbates extreme heat events in urban areas, exposing dense populations to extreme heat with implications for human health. Ground- and satellite-based data on urban and suburban temperatures and vegetation over a historical period can help identify temporal and geospatial trends in heat exposure. A set of indicators has been developed to map the exposure, social sensitivity, and vulnerability of urban populations to heat wave health impacts. Guided by an Advisory Group of local planners in the pilot city of Philadelphia, localized trends of increasing urban extreme heat events using MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) data, confirmed with urban and non-urban temperature monitor data were identified. For the Philadelphia study area, the number of heat-event days in the urban setting has increased from approximately 4 days in 1980 to almost 12 days in 2013, while the non-urban setting has consistently experienced 5 days of heat events per year across the time period. Warmer micro-climates with limited vegetative cooling and elevated LSTs were also identified. The exposure indicator was combined with areas of high social sensitivity (e.g., low-income and elderly) to create a vulnerability indicator, showing significant overlap between highly exposed and highly sensitive populations. As a measure of the adaptive capacity of local governments to reduce the urban heat island, evidence of targeted vegetation increases or reduced localized temperatures linked to urban greening and cooling programs were sought, though none were of a scale to be identified by the 1 km satellite data utilized. The indicators have helped local decision makers to understand patterns of vulnerability, and may be used in the future to target adaptation actions and measure results (LST reduction or vegetation increase) from existing adaptation actions.     

1961—2010年北疆地区极端气候事件变化

本文利用1961—2010年北疆地区20个气象台站的逐日降水量、最高气温、最低气温及平均气温资料,采用国际气候诊断与指数小组(ETCDDMI)所提供极端降水和气温事件的各种指标,对极端气候事件时空变化规律进行分析。结果表明:近50年,北疆地区极端降水和气温事件有显著的增加趋势;在北疆不同气候区极端降水指标变化趋势表现不同,其中准噶尔盆地地区增长趋势最慢;冷夜(日) 指数呈现下降趋势,为-4.05 d/10a(-1.51 d/10a),暖夜(日)指数呈现增加趋势,为4.36 d/10a (1.64 d/10a)。线性趋势分析发现,在20世纪80年代后极端降水事件有明显的增加趋势;应用M-K检测年最高气温和年最低气温,发现大多数站点在20世纪80年代后年最高气温和年最低气温也呈现显著增加。这表明在20世纪80年代后,北疆地区的极端气候事件增加趋势更加显著。     

1960-2007年红河流域强降水事件频次和强度变化及其影响

利用中国境内红河流域23个气象站点1960-2007年的逐日降水数据,分析流域强降水事件频次和强度的变化特征及其相关影响。结果表明:①强降水频次和强度在空间上表现出由东南向西北逐渐递减的趋势,流域下游的河口-金平-绿春-江城一带为高值区,上游的巍山-南涧-弥渡一带则为低值区。②强降水频次和强度的变化趋势存在空间差异,趋势增加的站点大多分布在李仙江上游、元江中上游和藤条江流域,趋势减少的站点大多分布在李仙江下游、元江下游和盘龙河流域。③从流域整体来看,在α=0.05的显著性水平下,近48年来强降水频次和强度没有明显的上升趋势,频次和强度的趋势变化幅度分别为0.26 days/10a和0.18 mm·day^-1/10a;研究时段内频次和强度在时间变化上没有显著突变点。④基于相关统计数据分析强降水变化的影响,表明近20年间强降水频次和强度的增加,增大了局部地区滑坡泥石流、洪涝灾害的风险,河流泥沙含量也随之增加。     

西北干旱区极端气候水文事件特征分析

中国西北干旱区是对全球变化响应最敏感地区之一。气候变化导致气候水文系统的不稳定性加剧,极端气候水文事件的频度和强度增大、重现期缩短,灾害程度加重。借助资料分析和文献阅读,对过去50 a中国西北干旱区极端气候/水文事件的发生规律、影响机制及未来趋势进行了梳理总结,主要结论如下：（1）西北干旱区的极端气候/水文事件呈逐年增加趋势,特别是20世纪70年代以来增加显著;气温和降水极值都表现为一致的增强趋势。降水量的增多是降雨频率和强度共同增加的结果。（2）中国西北干旱区低温、降水极值在1986年左右发生了明显的突变,高温极值在1996年左右发生突变。突变后,气温和降水极值均发生了显著增强变化。（3）北半球极涡面积指数和青藏高原指数对西北干旱区气候极值变化具有重要影响,冬季极值还受冬季北极涛动和北大西洋涛动等影响。（4）新疆地区有变暖湿趋势,而河西走廊东部则为变干趋势。强大的西伯利亚高压和增强的贝加尔湖气流造成新疆地区降水增加,而河西走廊干旱增加是由东亚夏季风减弱引起的。     

Spatial patterns of seasonal scale trends in extreme hourly precipitation in South Africa

Hourly precipitation data from 1998 to 2007 spread across 102 stations in South Africa were analyzed for trends in extreme hourly precipitation events. The analyses were conducted at the seasonal scale for summer and winter for nine different variables. The results of our analysis showed predominantly positive trends during summer, with the strongest trends concentrated in the coastal areas in the southeast. The spatial variations in the trends were reversed during the winter season, with negative trends observed in the coastal areas and positive trends occurring in the interior. The summer patterns also overlap with areas experiencing overall increasing trends in annual extreme precipitation as well as a stronger diurnal cycle identified in recently published literature.     

Meteorological and Streamflow Droughts: Characteristics,Trends, and Propagation in the Milwaukee River Basin

This study examined meteorological and streamflow droughts for the period from 1951 to 2006 using the Milwaukee River basin in Wisconsin as the study area in an effort to improve the understanding of drought propagation. Specifically, this study aimed to answer the following research questions: (1) What are the temporal trends of meteorological and streamflow droughts identified by drought indicators? (2) How do the drought indicators manifest drought propagation? Meteorological droughts were identified using the Effective Drought Index (EDI), and streamflow droughts were identified using a threshold-level approach. The intensity and duration of both types of drought were found to have decreased over time, most likely due to increasing precipitation. Therefore, in the study area, and likely in the larger region, drought has become of less concern. The propagation of meteorological drought into streamflow drought was detected generally after moderate and severe sequences of negative EDI that eventually led to extreme meteorological drought events. The study finds that both EDI and the threshold-level approach are effective in diagnosing meteorological and streamflow drought events of all durations.     

中国近46年来冬半年日降水变化特征分析

中国总体冬半年降水总量、日降水强度以及强降水日数都有不同程度的增加趋势。西北地区的变化相对显著,其平均降水量、降水日数及日降水强度都呈增加趋势,特别是20世纪80年代后期发生跃变。华北和中部地区降水总量趋于减少。南方3区多为增加趋势,其中东南和华南与冬季风及欧亚遥相关型有显著的负相关关系,而西南地区日降水参数则与温度和北极涛动指数显著相关。东北地区降水指标没有明显的一致趋势。     

1960—2017年中国北方气候干湿变化及其与ENSO的关系

基于中国北方424个气象站实测数据,应用FAO Penman-Monteith模型计算潜在蒸散（Potential evapotranspiration,ET₀）,使用降水和潜在蒸散数据计算得到标准化降水蒸散发指数（SPEI）,以此研究了1960—2017年中国北方干湿时空变化特征,分析了ENSO对北方气候干湿变化的影响。结果表明：中国北方干湿变化的线性趋势总体不显著,四季中春季和冬季变湿趋势明显。空间上,西北西部存在明显的变湿趋势,干旱化趋势主要发生在黄土高原、内蒙古东部和东北东部地区。全区各级干旱事件呈减少趋势,各级湿润事件呈增加趋势,其中以中等干旱的减少最为显著。西北西部中等干旱和极端干旱明显减少,东北北部和新疆部分地区极端湿润明显增加。全区四季3类干旱事件均表现为减少的趋势,3类湿润事件均表现为增加的趋势,西北西部四季3类干旱事件均呈减少趋势。ENSO对北方干湿的影响存在一定程度的滞后性。El Ni?o翌年气候湿润,La Nina翌年气候干旱。在年际和春季2个尺度上,SSTA与翌年SPEI存在显著的正相关关系。     

中国极端降水事件时空特征及其对夏季温度响应

基于中国1951-2014年728个气象站点日降水数据,利用POT抽样、变异点分析、趋势分析、分段回归等方法全面分析中国极端降水事件（量级、频率与发生时间）非平稳性特征及其对夏季温度响应。研究结果发现中国极端降水量级有明显变异特征,但无显著趋势变化,中国极端降水频率则相反。并且中国极端降水次数在全国大部分区域有显著增加趋势。另外,研究还表明变异点对中国极端降水量级和频率趋势特征有明显的改变,对极端降水发生时间趋势特征改变较弱;中国极端降水发生时间在中南部呈显著上升趋势,其他区域趋势性不显著。中国大部分区域夏季温度呈上升或显著上升趋势,且变异特征显著。在转折点前,中国大部分区域如西部干旱区东南部、东部干旱区西南部、华北区、华中区和西南区北部夏季温度呈下降或显著下降趋势;在转折点后,上述区域夏季温度转为上升或显著上升趋势。     

The response of key ecosystem services to land use and climate change in Chongqing: Time,space, and altitude

Mountainous landscapes are particularly vulnerable and sensitive to climate change and human activities,and a clear understanding of how ecosystem services (ES) and their relationships continuously change over time,across space,and along altitude is therefore essential for ecosystem management.Chongqing,a typical mountainous region,was se-lected to assess the long-term changes in its key ES and their relationships.From 1992 to 2018,the temporal variation in water yield (WY) revealed that the maximum and minimum WYs occurred in 1998 and 2006,which coincided with El Ni(n)o-Southern Oscillation and se-vere drought events,respectively.Soil export (SE) and WY were consistent with precipitation,which reached their highest values in 1998.During this period,carbon storage (CS) and habitat quality (HQ) both decreased significantly.ES in Chongqing showed large variations in altitude.Generally,WY and SE decreased with increasing altitude,while CS and HQ in-creased.For spatial distribution,WY and SE showed positive trends in the west and negative trends in the east.In regard to CS and HQ,negative trends dominated the area.Persistent tradeoffs between WY and soil conservation (SC) were found at all altitude gradients.The strong synergies between CS and HQ were maintained over time.     

1947-2006年东半球陆地干旱化特征——基于SPEI数据的分析

 利用1947—2006年逐月全球陆地高分辨率(0.5°×0.5°)标准化降水蒸散指数SPEI(Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index)资料,分析了过去60 a东半球(40°S—80°N,20°W—180°E)陆地的干旱化趋势和变率、干旱面积变化、干旱事件的持续性和周期性以及可能的变化成因等。结果显示,东半球80%的陆地上目前处于干旱化进程中,其中北非及中蒙边界等地干旱化趋势最为显著。干旱变率最大地区出现在非洲北部、中国青藏高原、中国西北东部及中蒙边界一带、俄罗斯中北部以及东北部。北非、中蒙边界中段及中国青藏高原地区也是持续性异常干旱事件出现频次最高的地区。基于功率谱的周期分析则显示,东半球大部分地区第一显著周期为1.5～3 a左右,中亚部分地区存在准4 a周期振荡,而北非地区存在准12 a周期的年代际变化。SPEI距平场的经验正交函数(EOF)分析第一模态反映了东半球陆地大部分地区干旱化总体上具有一致性,对应的时间函数与全球陆地气温距平相关系数高达0.81,表明全球变暖与东半球干旱化趋势有着紧密联系;第二模态对应的时间函数与超前8个月的南方涛动指数(SOI)的相关系数为0.60,因而大尺度的干旱周期性振荡受ENSO活动影响显著。