The Hoover Index of Population Concentration: A Correction and Update

Geographers have made extensive use of the Hoover index to measure the evenness with which population is distributed across territorial units. This paper corrects an error in the original county-based series for the United States, presented by Duncan et al. In Statistical Geography (1961) and often reproduced. We extend the series backward and forward in time to show population deconcentration at the county level from at least 1890 until 1910 (as low-density areas grew rapidly), a second round of deconcentration corresponding to the nonmetropolitan turnaround of the 1970s, and a third, much weaker round beginning around 1990 along with a modest resurgence of nonmetropolitan population growth. When states are used as the basis for computing the index, deconcentration has been a consistent pattern, except for 1940 to 1970, and for this exception we offer an explanation. We attempt to put these findings in the context of long- and short-term patterns of metropolitanization.     

Regional Comparisons of Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Migration in the 1970s and 1980s: Age and Place Implications*

Over the last thirty years, nonmetropolitan regions across the United States have experienced volatile population shifts ranging from rapid growth to persistent decline. Several authors have suggested that the age structure of the population may contribute to these population trends. In the 1970s, the older baby boomers were entering labor and housing markets, while the younger boomers were enrolling in nonmetropolitan colleges and universities. By the 1980s, this large cohort was aging into a different stage in the life course. This article examines metropolitan and nonmetropolitan population shifts during the 1970s and 1980s within an age‐cohort framework. Using Public Use Microsample data from 1980 and 1990, the analysis explores relationships between housing market, labor market, place characteristics, and the migration flows of different age cohorts. The analysis focuses on cohort‐specific in‐migration to two regions: New England and the Four Corners states of Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico. The results are consistent with a life‐course understanding of migration behavior, especially during the late 1970s, with older cohort shifts directed towards nonmetropolitan destinations and younger cohort shifts more influenced by labor and housing‐market variables. The results further demonstrate a large potential for future nonmetropolitan population growth, yet these growth experiences are likely to be regionally differentiated. These results have important policy implications for nonmetropolitan regions.     

SUBURBANIZATION IN THE CLEVELAND SMSA, 1950–1970

Suburban growth is a complex process attributable partly to decentralization and partly to deconcentration. Data on source of migrants and population density are used to operationalize these concepts in an empirical study of the Cleveland, Ohio SMSA for the period 1950 to 1970. Statistical analysis of census tract data for the suburban ring reveals a piling up of densities at the inner edge and suggests a complex pattern with respect to sources of the migrants contributing to suburban growth.     

Regional population redistribution in the USSR: 1979-84

"The primary purpose of this paper is to assess very broadly the regional growth and redistribution of the total, urban and rural populations of the USSR, as well as aggregate, regional and city size patterns of urbanization for the 1979-84 period. In order to investigate the continuity or reversal of trends, comparisons with preceding intercensal periods will also be undertaken, particularly with the 1970-79 period." It is found that "regional rates of population change between 1979 and 1984 were generally lower than those of 1970-79, primarily due to a general decline in natural increase rates. In addition, regional variations in rates of population change for the 1979-84 period were similar to those of the 1970-79 period.... The USSR has apparently reversed its long-term trend of deconcentration in the sense that the population as a whole is becoming more concentrated again, but this time in a new area of concentration, Central Asia, which is now the most populous economic region."     

EXPLANATIONS FOR THE INTENSIFICATION OF COUNTERURBANIZATION IN THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY *

Evaluating yearly net migration for the Federal Republic of Germany establishes the importance of demographic restructuring and government policies as explanations for the counterurbanization phenomenon. Counterurbanization, the spatial demographic deconcentration of regional population, is measured as an inverse relationship between the net migration rate and population sizes of functional urban regions. A counterurbanization pattern filtered-down from older to younger age-groups of the population, and appears related to an increasing preference for small-sized regions with natural amenities. For foreigners, a counterurbanization direction of movement can be explained by changes in immigration laws. While counterurbanization may be slowing down during the 1980s in certain developed countries, such as the United States, in the Federal Republic the phenomenon intensifies throughout the 1970–84 time period. Based on broad national demographic changes in combination with agespecific patterns of movement, this strong counterurbanization trend should continue well into the future.     

Migration,Sources of Income,and Community Change in the Nonmetropolitan Northwest

During the late 1980s and the first half of the 1990s, the nonmetropolitan Northwest grew quite rapidly, narrowing the gap between the growth rates of the metropolitan Northwest, and oupacing national rates. This growth was largely the result of in-migration from regional and national metropolitan areas. Traditional economic base theory does not explain the recent growth, as employment levels in in the region's basic industries continue to stagnate and decline, and the sources of income for these in-migrants remain a mystery. This paper utilizes data from the 1990 Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) to determine the extent to which metropolitan-origin migrants are measurably different from oldtime nonmetropolitan residents on certain socioeconomic variables, in an attempt to understand the ways in which the newcomers survive financially. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) shows that newcomers are younger, earn less in wages and salary, receive more nonearnings income, and reside in more valuable housing compared with the resident population. Discriminant analysis shows that differences in the earned income measures are largely explained by age differences, while the nonearnings income and value of residence remainsignificantly higher for the metropolitan origin migrants even when age and earned income are controlled. While the analysis indicates that measurable socioeconomic differences do exist between the two populations, it appears that the current wave of growth and change in the nonmetropolitan Northwest is much more complicated than a simple newcomer-oldtimer dichotomy.     

INTERACTIONS BETWEEN SPREAD-AND-BACKWASH,POPULATION TURNAROUND AND CORRIDOR EFFECTS IN THE INTER-METROPOLITAN PERIPHERY: A CASE STUDY

Three recurrent concepts in urban geography are examined in a single area within a portion of the inter-metropolitan periphery, primarily for the 1960-1980 period. This local-scale study attempts to replicate several findings of studies involving larger units dispersed over wider regions. In this portion of the inter-metropolitan periphery, spread-and-backwash was evident in the 1960s, followed by the population turnaround in the 1970s but only within the context of an urban corridor defined with respect to combined metropolitan and nonmetropolitan commuting areas as linked by major highways. The end of the turnaround was also corroborated in the area but there was not clear evidence of a return to an urban-linked growth pattern. This study suggests the existence of a complex rural-area pattern evolving around corridors and hierarchical sets of nonmetropolitan cities, rather than either a simple, uninterrupted march of metropolitanization across a rural landscape or the emergence of a high-tech society freed from such constraints as distance and rural/urban distinctions.     

THE DEMOGRAPHIC CONSEQUENCES OF METROPOLITAN POPULATION DECONCENTRATION IN THE U.S.

Although the recent growth in the nonmetropolitan population of the U.S. is now well documented, little attention has been given to the consequences these trends will have on the future composition and growth of metropolitan and nonmetropolitan regions. This paper discusses the feedback effects of migration on the future age structure and population growth of both regions during the period 1975–2000.     

Migration,Sources of Income,and Community Change in the Nonmetropolitan Northwest

During the late 1980s and the first half of the 1990s, the nonmetropolitan Northwest grew quite rapidly, narrowing the gap between the growth rates of the metropolitan Northwest, and oupacing national rates. This growth was largely the result of in-migration from regional and national metropolitan areas. Traditional economic base theory does not explain the recent growth, as employment levels in in the region's basic industries continue to stagnate and decline, and the sources of income for these in-migrants remain a mystery. This paper utilizes data from the 1990 Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) to determine the extent to which metropolitan-origin migrants are measurably different from oldtime nonmetropolitan residents on certain socioeconomic variables, in an attempt to understand the ways in which the newcomers survive financially. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) shows that newcomers are younger, earn less in wages and salary, receive more nonearnings income, and reside in more valuable housing compared with the resident population. Discriminant analysis shows that differences in the earned income measures are largely explained by age differences, while the nonearnings income and value of residence remainsignificantly higher for the metropolitan origin migrants even when age and earned income are controlled. While the analysis indicates that measurable socioeconomic differences do exist between the two populations, it appears that the current wave of growth and change in the nonmetropolitan Northwest is much more complicated than a simple newcomer-oldtimer dichotomy.     

基于GIS的山区人口压力测算模型——以四川省凉山州为例

从人口压力构成要素和山区实际情况出发,构建了山区人口压力测算模型.该模型包括城镇人口压力指数、农村人口压力指数和人口自然增长率3 个构成要素,综合反映了山区人口数量压力特征.应用该模型对四川省凉山州的人口压力指数进行了测算,结果表明：①凉山州人口压力指数的平均值为4.95,属“一般”水平.人口压力“小”、“较小”、“一般”、“大”、“极大”的县市分别占的23.53%、11.76%、29.41%、29.41%和5.88%;②人口压力指数具有明显的空间集聚性,并受到地形条件的制约,凉山州东部、东北部的大、小凉山地区人口压力大,安宁河谷、凉山州南部低山、中山区和盐源盆地人口压力小;③人口压力指数与贫困发生率、生态脆弱度之间具有较高的相关性,说明人口压力大和生态环境脆弱性高是导致山区贫困的一个因素,应加强贫困山区社会经济与生态环境的协调性研究.     

Immigrant Concentration and Domestic Migrant Dispersal: Is Movement to Nonometropolitan Areas “White flight”?

This article examines linkages between recent domestic out-migration from immigrant gateway metropolitan areas and nonmetropolitan migration gains, based on data of the 1990 census, 1996 Current Population Survey, and population estimates for the 1990–1996 period from the Bureau of Census. Our analysis of these data suggests that there is a mirror image of migration patterns between high immigration metropolitan area losses and nonmetropolitan area gains. This is especially evident in the West with the relationship between Los Angeles and San Francisco areas' losses on the one hand, and the region's nonmetropolitan gains on the other. While pre-elderly and elderly retirees have contributed to these nonmetropolitan gains, much of it is attributable to the destination choices of suburban-like populations—Whites with children, not college educated, and with lower incomes—that have been leaving high immigration metropolitan areas. This new, more dispersed form of “White flight” holds the potential for reinvigorating smaller, nonmetropolitan communities, but creating, as well, new demographic divisions across space.     

THE GEOGRAPHY PLACEMENT SEMINAR: A COURSE SYLLABUS

This article examines linkages between recent domestic out-migration from immigrant gateway metropolitan areas and nonmetropolitan migration gains, based on data of the 1990 census, 1996 Current Population Survey, and population estimates for the 1990–1996 period from the Bureau of Census. Our analysis of these data suggests that there is a mirror image of migration patterns between high immigration metropolitan area losses and nonmetropolitan area gains. This is especially evident in the West with the relationship between Los Angeles and San Francisco areas' losses on the one hand, and the region's nonmetropolitan gains on the other. While pre-elderly and elderly retirees have contributed to these nonmetropolitan gains, much of it is attributable to the destination choices of suburban-like populations—Whites with children, not college educated, and with lower incomes—that have been leaving high immigration metropolitan areas. This new, more dispersed form of “White flight” holds the potential for reinvigorating smaller, nonmetropolitan communities, but creating, as well, new demographic divisions across space.     

Byerhvervene. Lokaliseringstendenser 1970–83

Matthiessen. Christian Wichmann: Byerhvervene. Lokaliseringstendenser 1970–83. Geografisk Tidsskrift 87:22–26. København, juni 1987.

The Danish pattern of urban employment changed little 1970–83 although dynamic structural changes occurred, and although the total increased 23% to 2,353,366 urban jobs. The manufacturing deconcentration was more than counteracted by growth in no. of tertiary jobs in the large urban places.     

1982~2010年广州市人口增长与空间分布演变研究

基于第三、四、五和六次人口普查资料,利用数学模型对1982~2010年广州市近30 a来的人口增长与空间分布规律深入探讨。得出以下结论：① 近30 a来广州市人口保持稳定增长,人口分布总体上趋于分散,人口变化趋于缓和,尤其是近10 a来广州中心城区人口密度缓慢降低,近郊区人口密度较快增长,远郊区人口密度逐步增加的特征更加明显;② 人口空间分布由“峰值单中心+外围小中心”结构演变为“扁平化多中心+外围小中心”;③ 广州市人口发展已进入成熟晚期阶段向老年阶段的过渡时期,但中心城区人口缺口尚未出现;④ 广州市人口郊区化始于20世纪90年代末,2000年以来郊区化明显加快,属于市中心发展型郊区化。     

基于分县尺度的中国人口分布适宜度研究

以人口空间分布及其与资源环境和社会经济协调性评价为核心,提出了一整套人口与资源环境和经济社会发展协调水平评价的指标体系与模型方法;以分县为基本单元,定量评价了2010 年中国人口与资源环境和社会经济发展的协调性和协调程度;根据人口分布适宜度高低和限制性差别,划分了中国分县人口分布适宜等级和限制类型,定量揭示了中国不同地区人口与资源环境和社会经济协调发展的时空格局和地域特征。研究表明：① 2010 年中国有3/5 以上的县（市、区） 人口分布与人居环境基本适宜,中国分县人口分布与人居环境自然适宜性保持了高度一致性;② 2010 年中国有1/2 以上的县（市、区） 人口发展基本不受水土资源约束,分县人口分布与水土资源适宜性处于中等水平;③ 2010 年中国有超3/5 的县（市、区） 人口与社会经济发展基本协调,人口分布的社会经济协调性良好;④ 2010 年中国近3/5 的县（市、区） 人口分布适宜度在60 以上,人口资源环境与发展处于基本协调或相对协调状态;⑤2010 年中国分县人口资源环境与发展的协调程度东部优于中部、中部优于西部;⑥ 2010 年中国分县人口分布适宜度可划分为人口资源环境与发展基本协调、相对协调、有待协调和亟待协调4个适宜等级与10 个限制类型。     

新疆人口变动对生态环境的未来影响趋势与协调发展对策——以塔里木河流域为例

通过对一个典型干旱区内陆河流域——新疆塔里木河流域的人口与生态环境演变之间互动机制的分析, 用系统动力学方法建立了该流域的动态仿真模型。通过模型的多方案运行, 观察未来该流域各种人口变动条件下生态环境的可能演变后果, 从而提出有利于流域生态环境的合理人口变动条件与政策, 为有关部门提供决策参考。     

高温影响下西安市人口脆弱性评估及其空间分异

高温给城市人口健康和社会发展带来的脆弱性后果愈发严重,如何科学量化与评估城市高温人口脆弱性,为制定更具针对性的高温适应对策提供科学依据成为当前国际研究热点.在城市高温人口脆弱性分析框架基础上,以西安市为例,整合遥感影像、手机信令、POI、社会经济等多源数据,从高温暴露、敏感性、适应能力3个维度构建高温影响下人口脆弱性评...     

Population trends of Soviet cities, 1970-84

This article contains a time series for the population of cities of the Soviet Union for the period 1970-1984. The data are from the Soviet censuses of 1970 and 1979 and from official estimates for 1974 and 1984. The article is designed as a continuation of an earlier time series developed by Chauncy D. Harris for the period 1897-1967. "The updated material consists of a series of tables following the patterns of the earlier material, a methodological explanation, and a discussion of significant trends in the population size of Soviet cities."     

基于GRID的坡耕地退耕压力模型研究

坡耕地退耕还林还草作为保护生态环境的重要措施,已于2000年在长江上游及黄河中上游等地区进行大面积试点。然而,坡耕地退耕还林还草也引发一系列局域性和阶段性的复杂问题,如粮食安全保障、生态移民安置等。这些问题产生的重要根源是坡耕地空间分布差异导致的人口压力状况的空间差异。文章设计了4个基于GRID的坡耕地退耕人口压力指数模型,并以三峡库区的奉节县为例进行了模拟。     

METROPOLITAN,URBAN, AND RURAL COMMUTING AREAS: TOWARD A BETTER DEPICTION OF THE UNITED STATES SETTLEMENT SYSTEM

Discontent with the current definition of metropolitan areas and the lack of differentiation within nonmetropolitan territory provided the incentive for the research presented here. Census tracts rather than counties were used as the building blocks for assignment of tracts, not just to metropolitan areas, but also to larger towns (10,000 to 49,999) and to smaller urban places (2,500 to 9,999). The analysis used 1990 census-defined urbanized areas and tract-to-tract commuter flows. Results include a modest shift of population from metropolitan to nonmetropolitan, as well as a significant reduction in the areal size of metropolitan areas, disaggregation of many areas, and frequent reconfiguration to a more realistic settlement form. [Key words: metropolitan, urban-rural, commuting.]