基于文献记录的黑河流域历史时期旱涝特征分析

流域的旱涝灾害特征及其变化规律是流域水资源演变研究的重要内容。利用历史文献资料重建了西北内陆河黑河流域公元0-1949年的旱涝灾害等级序列,结合滑动平均、小波变换处理等方法,探讨了流域历史时期旱涝等级的频数特征、旱涝变化的周期特征及其与气候冷暖和人类活动之间的关系。对公元1000年以后的旱涝灾害规律进行分析,结果表明：流域存在5个旱灾高发阶段（1230-1270年、1430-1530年、1640-1760年、1860-1890年、1900-1940年）,3个涝灾高发期（1650-1690年、1730-1790年、1830-1910年）,并呈现出旱涝灾害频发的态势;1000-1949年期间,流域旱涝灾害存在4个准周期变化,对比发现这与太阳黑子活动等环境变化周期有紧密的联系;1580年以前,气候冷暖是影响旱涝灾害发生的主要因子,但16世纪以后,旱涝灾害交替频发,很可能是人类活动加剧了该现象。所以,定量辨析自然因素和人类活动对流域旱涝灾害的影响将是未来研究的重点方向。     

An analysis on disasters management system in China

This paper introduced the principle, institutional framework, and legal construction of Chinese disaster management system, and operating mechanisms of disaster management departments in pre-disaster, response and post-disaster phases were also demonstrated. Although China has basically built the disaster management system, formed national emergency plan system, and gained achievements in some aspects, the disasters management system is still a segmental model and is not an integrated management system. This article analyzes problems of Chinese disaster management system, and puts forward some suggestions for improving and optimizing this system. This can make Chinese disaster management system better respond and handle to disasters risk, and reduce the social and economic losses of disasters caused.     

The construction and development of SHRIMP I: An historical outline

In 1973 Bill Compston advocated the building of an ion microprobe at the Research School of Earth Sciences (RSES) at the Australian National University (ANU). The commercial ion probes available at this time were too small to have sufficient sensitivity for trace element analysis and too low in mass resolution to avoid molecular interferences. The project commenced in 1974 with the appointment of a former ANU PhD student Steve Clement who had expertise in beam transport theory. To achieve high sensitivity and high mass resolution, beam transport theory indicated that a much larger magnet than in any commercially available mass spectrometer would be required. Clement chose an ion optical design, by Professor Matsuda of Osaka University in 1974, which had the required combination of high mass resolution and high transmission. Clement's job was to produce the detailed scientific designs and machine drawings for the new instrument as well as testing the completed instrument. Clement coined the term SHRIMP-Sensitive High Resolution Ion MicroProbe. By the end of 1977 nearly all the components had been manufactured and the big electromagnet had been successfully tested. In the following year the secondary mass analyzer was assembled and tested using a thermal ionization source and showed great promise with flat-topped peaks at 5000 resolution and 50% transmission with 50 V energy spread. At this stage the machine had far exceeded the specifications for the available commercial ion probes. Continued development during 1981 to the point where the original design specifications were fully realized was time consuming since learning how to use the entirely novel instrument was no simple task; no one else had an instrument like SHRIMP. The application of the instrument to zircon U–Pb geochronology established the necessary operating conditions for measuring Pb isotopic compositions and the elemental ratios Pb/U and U/Zr from 20 μm diameter spots on single zircon grains. Application of this in the early 1980s started a revolution in Precambrian geology by the ability to produce rapidly accurate and precise age determinations on structurally complex zircon samples.     

Canadian precise gravity networks for crustal movement studies: An instrument evaluation

Precise gravity networks and profiles have been established in three locations in Canada for the purpose of measuring possible gravity changes associated with seismic events. All measurements were made using two LaCoste and Romberg model D gravimeters. The standard deviation of a single observed gravity difference ranges from 50 to 120 nm/sec². The precision of the measurements appears to depend mainly on the amount of exposure to vibration during transportation. A preliminary comparison between results of different instruments reveals unexplained discrepancies, and calibration tests show that the D meter scale factor varies significantly with either dial reading or reset screw position or both.     

On the driving forces of historical changes in the fatalities of tropical cyclone disasters in China from 1951 to 2014

Tropical cyclone (TC) disasters have frequently caused casualties in the coastal areas of China. According to the statistics of dead and missing people due to TCs from 1951 to 2014, the number of fatalities has been significantly decreasing over time. However, deadly TC events have still caused great losses of life in recent years, which are characterized as significant abrupt fluctuations superimposed along the downward trend of the long-term fatality time series. The numbers of fatalities caused by TC disasters are influenced by variables such as the intensity of TC hazards, the population exposed to TCs and the vulnerability of people to TC hazards. It is thus of great significance to analyze their temporal characteristics and understand the forces driving these changes. First, the time series of the TC wind, precipitation, spatial distribution of population, fatality and disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures of China from 1951 to 2014 are reconstructed. Second, the improved power dissipation index, total precipitation, integrated intensity and index of exposed population are calculated, and the population vulnerability indices, including mean and relative fatality rates, are derived. Third, the change trend of each index is detected using the Mann–Kendall test. Finally, the main driving factors of the long-term change trend and fluctuations of the TC fatalities are analyzed by a negative binomial regression model and standard deviation statistics. It is found that the decrease in vulnerability based on the improvement in structural and non-structural measures is the main driving force of the decreases in fatalities over the past six decades. Although the total population and exposure have increased dramatically in the coastal areas of China, their contributions to the increase in the fatality risk were counteracted by the decrease in vulnerability. Abrupt and catastrophic disasters were mostly caused by TCs with hazards of high intensity that surpassed the capacity of structural measures; the lack of forecasting or early warning, as well as improper emergency response actions, may also have triggered the great loss of lives. To reduce the fatalities of future TCs, especially those that may exceed the capacity of structural measures, the enhancement of non-structural measures and the adaptation of resilience strategies should be priorities for future people-centered disaster management.

     

Distribution and abundance of submerged aquatic vegetation in Chesapeake Bay: An historical perspective

An historical summary of the distribution and abundance of submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) in the Chesapeake Bay is presented. Evidence suggests that SAV has generally been common throughout the bay over the last several hundred years with several fluctuations in abundance. The decline ofZostera marina (eelgrass) in the 1930’s and the rapid expansion ofMyriophyllum spicatum (watermilfoil) in the late 1950’s and early 1960’s were two significant events involving a single species. Since 1965, however, there has been a significant reduction of all species in most sections of the bay. Declines were first observed in the Patuxent, Potomac and sections of other rivers in the Maryland portion of the Bay between 1965 and 1970. Dramatic reductions were observed over the entire length of the bay from 1970 to 1975. Particularly severe losses were observed at the head of the bay around Susquehanna Flats as well as in numerous rivers along Maryland’s eastern and western shores. Changes in the lower, Virginia portion of the bay occurred primarily in the western tributaries. Greatest losses of vegetation occurred in the years following Tropical Storm Agnes in 1972. Since 1975 little regrowth has been observed in the Chesapeake Bay. Other areas along the Atlantic Coast of the U.S. during the same period have experienced no similar widespread decline. It thus appears that the factors affecting the recent changes in distribution and abundance of submerged vegetation in the bay are regional in nature. Causes for this decline may be related to changes in water quality, primarily increased eutrophication and turbidity.     

An unusual non-fluorescing algal kerogen from the Canadian Arctic

Bituminous cobbles collected from the Fossil Forest site (Geodetic Hills, Axel Heiberg Island, Canadian Arctic) have been subjected to petrographic and geochemical characterization. Transmitted light microscopy and pyrolytic analyses indicate that these samples are derived from algal biomass and are in most ways, generally comparable with other boghead coals and torbanites. However, fluorescence microscopy results in the surprising observation that these samples do not fluoresce under normal blue-light excitation conditions. Strong fluorescence is generally considered to be characteristic of alginites and Type I (and II) kerogens, and the absence of this property in these samples suggests that even petrographic analyses with blue-light excitation (fluorescence) may underestimate the occurrence of algal-derived materials in some samples.     

An abundance model resource appraisal for some Canadian commodities

An abundance model resource appraisal has been undertaken for 10 mineral commodities in Canada: nickel, copper, zinc, lead, molybdenum, uranium, silver, gold, chromium, and tin. The purpose of the appraisal was to investigate the applicability of the model to the Canadian situation. Resource appraisals for the first 6 of the commodities studied have been published following deposit modeling studies. For many other commodities studied have been published following deposit modeling appraisals. The demonstration of the relevance of the abundance model to Canada would allow its application in such cases. The data presented in this paper indicate that the approximate relation, resource (short tons)=abundance (%)×10¹⁰. holds true for all commodities studied except chromium and tin. As the resources versus abundances relationship observed on a global scale is observable in Canada, it is concluded that Canada is a sufficiently large fraction (∼7%) of the earth's continental crust to represent a valid sample of that crust. Canada appears to be relatively well endowed with resources of copper, molybdenum, lead, and zinc, and poorly endowed with chromium and tin. It is proposed that the intersection of national boundaries with the boundaries of the world's metallogenic provinces is of greater importance than the intensity of past search, a feature that has been suggested in other studies. If these areas overlap, a nation may be self sufficient in a commodity: if they do not, the nation must import, or find a nationally available substitute. The sources of information used in the appraisal are outlined together with an analysis of the problems encounterea and the time requirements. This paper was presented at the International Geological Correlation Program (IGCP) Project 98: “Standards for Computer Applications in Resource Studies” held at Taita Hills Kenya, November 8–15, 1977.     

LiDAR技术在活动构造研究中的应用

沿断裂带的大比例尺地貌填图是活动构造研究的重要基础。传统方法一般通过遥感、航片解译以及典型地点的实地测量进行详细填图。因此传统方法一般只能获得二维变形特征,或者局部的三维变形。激光雷达测量(Light Detection And Ranging-LiDAR)技术优势为对地貌的高精度、全方位、三维直接测量,可以为活动构造研究提供沿整条断裂带的高精度地貌高程基础数据。基于LiDAR数据的量化分析是未来活动构造研究的趋势。目前,美国、欧洲、日本以及我国台湾地区等均已经开展沿主要活动断裂带的大规模机载LiDAR测量。与传统方法相比,LiDAR技术在森林覆盖区和城区的活动断裂填图中具有巨大的优势,在沿断裂位错测量上也更精准,更有效。并且震前与震后LiDAR数据对比也是研究同震变形特征、探索断裂发震模式的重要手段。本文综述LiDAR技术在活动构造研究中的主要应用,介绍LiDAR技术在活动构造研究中的优势与前景。分析表明,激光雷达技术在活动构造研究中的应用势在必行,沿国内主要活动断裂带的机载LiDAR测量将成为未来国内活动断裂研究基础数据获取的重要手段。     

An early Holocene narwhal tusk from the Canadian high Arctic

A narwhal (Monodon monoceros) tusk from 34 m above sea level and located at 82°N on the northwest coast of Ellesmere Island has been radiocarbon dated at 6,830 ± 50 B.P. It was collected from a narrow coastal strip which is isolated from the adjacent Arctic Ocean by glacier ice, ice shelf and multiyear pack ice. The specimen represents an early Holocene range extension of 400–700 km over the present. Because the narwhal requires abundant open water to survive, the Holocene tusk is an important independent item of proxy data on palaeoclimatic change. Contemporary migration routes are directly related to seasonal sea ice in the inter-island channels of the central Canadian Arctic archipelago. The presence of a narwhal on the northwest Ellesmere Island coast at 6,830 ± 50 B. P. suggests that sea ice and ice-shelf conditions were more favourable at that time. A comprehensive chronological framework for late Quaternary and Holocene geomorphic/climatic events from northern Ellesmere Island records a warm early Holocene characterized by abundant driftwood entry into the high Arctic. This was followed by a mid-Holocene climatic deterioration during which the ice shelves of the Ellesmere coast formed. Therefore, the narwhal tusk is further evidence that a period of maximum postglacial warmth occurred during the early Holocene in the Canadian high Arctic.     

Regional survey for He anomalies in Canadian shield lakes: sources of variation and implications for nuclear fuel waste management

Bottom-water He concentration (=[He]) was measured in the late summers of 1989, 1990 and 1991 in the waters of lake basins at the Experimental Lakes Area in northwestern Ontario, Canada. A total of 32 basins were sampled every year. Helium concentrations were relatively stable from year to year, exhibiting a mean coefficient of variation of 34%. Total [He] ranged from values below the atmospheric equilibrium concentration of 47 nl He/l H₂O to a maximum of 5364 nl/l measured in Lake 625 in 1991. Total [He] exhibited a two-phase distribution, with a large subpopulation of basins having only modest He enrichment (geometric mean G.M.= 77nl/l, geometric standard deviation G.S.D.= 1.65, n = 39), and a small subpopulation of basins, including Lakes 625, 634 and 615, with large He anomalies (G.M.= 692nl/l,G.S.D.= 3.08, n = 6). Using hydrological, morphometric and physical data for each lake, bottom-water [He] was predicted. A model including lake order and lake width accounted for 22% of the total variance in [He]. These results support the hypothesis that excess He in lake-bottom-water originates with deep groundwater discharge via fractures in the underlying granite.     

长白山火山活动发展阶段及火山灾害评价

长白山地区火山活动划分二个发展阶段：以点一线形式喷发形成的广阔玄武岩台地阶段一焊缝构造发展阶段;中心式大规模喷发形成的锥状火山机构一焊点构造发展阶段,长白山地区乃至吉林东部地区中一新生代以来抬升平均速率81m／Ma及白头山一泉阳一露水河一带中生代以来存在一个火山坳陷盆地。     

Conceptual models in exploration geochemistry: The Canadian Cordillera and Canadian Shield

This volume summarizes the exploration geochemical conditions in the secondary environment, in the Canadian Cordillera and the Canadian Shield. This is achieved by a number of conceptual models which describe the principles and mechanisms of formation of anomalies, which govern the use of exploration geochemistry. These models have been constructed by drawing together information already existing in the literature plus 38 individual case histories contained in this volume.The formation of anomalies is described for: (1) residual overburden, (2) overburden of local origin (e.g. till), and (3) transported overburden of remote origin (e.g. stratified glacial drift and alluvium). Within each of these categories the effect of element mobility, seepage zones, bogs, variation in overburden thickness, rock type change and soil type change are also described.An attempt has been made, not only to summarize both these conditions where geochemistry can be used as a reliable exploration tool, but also to identify areas where the use of geochemistry is unreliable.A summary is also given of the length of anomalous dispersion and contrast in both soil and sediments for all the case histories quoted, both in this volume and in the literature. This summary is divided according to the type of deposit, i.e. porphyry copper, massive sulphide, etc., and provides a guide for planning the optimum sampling interval.     

Children in disasters: the role of household preparedness

To increase children’s resilience to disasters, it is important to expand our understanding of what increases their vulnerability. One household factor that has been tied to disaster resilience in general is the extent to which households have prepared themselves. In the context of wildfire preparedness, the current study examined whether households with very young, young, or teenage children differ in the extent to which they prepare their household compared to childless households. A two-wave survey study amongst Australian residents of wildfire-prone areas (N _wave1 = 998, N _wave2 = 514) found that households with young (under twelve years old) and very young (under six years old) children had prepared their properties less for wildfires compared to childless households at the start of the wildfire season, but they had caught up in property preparedness by the end of it. However, households with younger children also performed fewer disaster-planning actions than childless households. This difference remained significant throughout the season. The former group also reported lower motivation to prepare, greater perceived difficulty in preparing, and greater lack of time to prepare than childless households. The majority of these findings were explained by the younger age of the adult parents rather than the presence of younger children per se. An exception was that those with young and very young children reported a greater lack of time to prepare than childless adults of a similar age. We discuss practice and public policy implications that follow from this research.     

Megacities and natural disasters: a comparative analysis*

Natural disasters are a worsening problem in many of the world's largest cities. Since an increasing majority of the world's population will soon live in cities, and mostly in large cities, the trend towards increasing urban hazard poses serious societal challenges for the future. Beginning in the mid-1990s, the International Geographical Union's Study Group on the Disaster Vulnerability of Megacities undertook a series of case studies of megacities that have been – and are – exposed to major natural disasters. These include: Tokyo, Seoul, Sydney, Lima, Mexico City, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Miami, London and Dhaka. Case studies focused on reviewing the historic record of major disasters in each city and on documenting recent changes in different components of hazard including, risk, exposure, vulnerability and response. It was found that exposure and vulnerability are the components of hazard that are changing fastest and with the gravest implications for urban populations. Because hazards are only one part of the typical urban management agenda, hazards management in large cities should be pursued with careful regard to the context of general urban policy manking and management. Sustainability has become a guiding principle of urban management but the relationship between hazard and sustainability is little understood and little explored. The way lies open for hazard researchers to develop alternative contextualized approaches to the analysis and resolution of urban hazard issues. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.