6月暴雨数据预报客观释用分具预报系统

以日本降水数值预报为指导产品，结合本州天气实际，通过寻找因子，建立６月暴雨客观自动分县预报系统，该系统在１９９６年业务试运行中，已显示出较强的预报能力。     

湘西自治州5—7月暴雨客观自动预报系统

湘西自治州5～7月暴雨客观自动预报系统（以下简称系统）,用Turbo Basic语言编写,DOS下运行,在网络工作站上实现从原始资料到预报结论全过程。该系统客观、自动化程度较高。从实时资料、物理量诊断等信息中自行采集预报参数,对数值预报产品、卫星云图等少量资料采用人机对话方式。并具有自动识别天气系统、判别错情等功能。同时该系统还拥有较为丰富的预报知识,选用高度浓缩的预报因子和因子群,并对逐项知识进行严格和系统的检验及优化。使其具有较高的概括率和准确率。通过1995年5～7月投入业务使用。该系统运行速度快而可靠,得出的预报结论客观、准确。     

江苏省暴雪预报系统

暴雪预报系统是在普查１９７０－１９９２年资料，对暴雪的天气形势分型的基础上建立的，通过计算预报场与各型平均场的相似离度判别有无暴雪产生，进而通过寻求与历史样本的最佳相似预报暴雪落区。该系统业务应用效果令人满意。     

布尔方程组解集在天气预报中的应用

通过对而尔方程组同天气预报系统对应关系的分析,指出布尔方程组是预报系统逻辑结构的具体表征。据此,预报系统在微机上运行时,可将是否符合预报系统的预报规则,转换为是否满足布尔方程的解集,从而提高预报系统在微机上的运行效率。同时,在分析布尔方程组解集布尔积因子取值规律的基础上,揭示了它同预报因在整个预报系统中作用主次的关联,为预报因子作用主次的诊断,提供了可行的方法,并进一步提高预报系统的运行效率。     

四川盆地中期寒潮预报概念模型及自动预报系统研究

从影响气温变化的物理过程入手，针对中期寒潮天气的预报对象，分析与其物理过程有关的天气学因子的变化规律，建立四川盆地中期寒潮预报的概念模型，利用数值预报产品，建立冬半年寒潮自动预报系统，该系统不仅能准确预报寒潮或强冷空气侵袭盆地的开始时间，还能较准确地提供过程降温幅度预报。     

上海地区强对流天气短时预报系统

以强对流天气的发生、发展规律为依据,从中尺度数值预报模式输出结果、Ｄｏｐｐｌｅｒ天气雷达、静止气象卫星、ＭＩＣＡＰＳ系统和自动雨量站网等获取大气运动的各种尺度动力条件、水汽条件、大气稳定度和触发机制,各种天气实况等动态变化资料,结合预报员经验,建立了“上海地区强对流天气短时预报系统”（以下简称“预报系统”）,预报系统产品包括强对流天气的形势分析、０～１２ｈ展望预报、０～３ｈ滚动预报及警报。预报系统     

汕头气象台预报业务工作站简介

1前言基于预报业务的应用目的，把一些较好的预报工具或科研成果进行优化完善，并由总控菜单程序把各预报系统集成起来，在同一中文平台上运行，通过计算机网络调用各预报系统所需资料，从而形成一套较完整的业务系统，供日常预报值班使用，这对于促进科研成果业务化，提高预报水平起着积极作用。2几种预报业务系统简介及简单集成方法2．且潮汕地区4～6月逐日降水分片预报系统该系统在收集预报员经验的基础上，应用数值预告产品、天气形势分型、物理量场特征及有关实时气象资料，根据专家系统理论和方法，采用逐步判别法作出潮汕地区4～6月…     

6—7月江苏区域5天暴雨趋势中期预报系统

本文介绍了江苏省气象台研制的区域暴雨中期预报系统．该系统选用距离系数相似法、指数相似法等统计方法将欧洲中心预报的500hPa高度场与历史上500hPa高度场找相似，及中期暴雨天气过程概念模式制作预报．从天气学意义出发，用ECMWF预报的500hPa高度场、850kPa风场、温度场建立了一系列的中期时效的暴雨预报指标。该系统从ECMWF的格点资料处理到预报结果的给出，全部是由计算机自动连续进行的，在日常业务工作中使用有迅速、及时、准确的优点。     

东营市冰雹预报自动化系统

利用1989～1998年6月东营市冰雹个例和08时的实时资料进行相关分析,筛选出相关显著性的因子组成典型场,经过消空处理,利用逐步判别方法,建立了东营市6月冰雹预报自动化系统。系统直接从“9210”卫星网自动调用资料,操作简便,经1999,2000年6月使用,冰雹预报效果较好。     

华南登陆台风特大暴雨诊断预报业务系统

保护造成华南登陆台风特大暴雨增幅的物理成因及天气学等因子，采用人工智能和计算机技术处理，建立一套客观、定量的预报业务系统。     

淮河流域水文极值预测模型研究

为探索气候变化影响下水文极值的非平稳性和预测方法,建立了水文极值非平稳广义极值（GEV）分布的统计预测模型。利用1952-2010年淮河上游流域累计面雨量和流量年最大值资料、同期500 hPa环流特征量资料以及17个CMIP5模式对环流特征量的模拟结果,筛选出对水文极值影响显著的年平均北半球极涡强度指数作为GEV分布参数的预测因子。分析了在RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下2006-2050年淮河上游流域水文极值对气候变化的响应。结果表明,10年以下与10年以上重现期的水文极值在非平稳过程中呈现前者下降而后者上升的相反变化趋势;多模型预测的集合平均在未来情景中均呈现上升趋势,情景排放量越大增幅越大,重现期越长增幅也越大。与极值的常态相比,极值的极端态更易受气候变化影响。     

CBDR&RC in a regime applicable to all

The principle of common, but differentiated, responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDR&RC) is fundamental to the UNFCCC. Some options for a nuanced model of differentiation that addresses both responsibility and capability in a changing world are explored, such as new categories of countries, and some of the political issues that such a model might face are considered. The strengths and limitations of options for graduation based on ‘objective’ criteria such that countries could move between categories or ‘graduate’ – an option provided by the UNFCCC – are discussed. Countries could also choose to join another club (e.g. the G20), self-elect into categories or differentiate among themselves implicitly by accepting different commitments and actions. CBDR&RC will form part of the overall legally binding agreement, and must apply symmetry in some respects and differentiation in others to the commitments and actions contained therein. Some possible characteristics of CBDR&RC of relevance in a regime ‘applicable to all’ are outlined. These include promoting climate action and using mechanisms available in the UNFCCC to instil dynamism. Differentiation on mitigation must consider the distinctions between absolute and relative reductions, as well as commitments to outcomes and implementation. CBDR&RC should be applied to mitigation, adaptation, and the means of implementation.

Policy relevance

In Durban, Parties agreed to negotiate a regime ‘applicable to all’, which sent a political signal that there should be greater symmetry between nations. The world has changed since the UNFCCC was negotiated in 1992. It is now less helpful to think only in terms of two groups of countries (e.g. Annex I and non-Annex I), and evident that there are significant differences between member states. This requires a more nuanced interpretation of the principles of equity and CBDR&RC, which is an integral part of the UNFCCC. The options for the different approaches outlined in this article might help in the construction of a more nuanced model. All must do more, while some must do more still than others. To achieve this, some defining characteristics of CBDR&RC in a regime applicable to all are suggested.     

Ethnic conflict as a risk amplifier for resurgent P. vivax malaria in temperate zones: A case study from the Caucasus region

One of the most protracted post-Soviet conflicts of the 1990s was a territorial dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the contested Karabakh region. Years of ethnic violence led to the displacement of nearly a million refugees, as well as a public health crisis that included epidemics of malaria, diphtheria and other preventable diseases. Malaria is not usually considered a health risk in temperate climates, but seasonal epidemics were widespread throughout the Caucasus in the early decades of the twentieth century. This paper combines qualitative historical research with geospatial analysis to explore how endemic malaria was controlled during the Soviet era, and how ethnic conflict reconfigured local ecologies to facilitate the re-emergence of P. vivax after the Soviet collapse in the 1990s. This research reveals that ethnic conflicts have specific qualities that increase risks of infectious and vector borne disease outbreaks, even in places that have successfully achieved a modern health and mortality profile. The risk amplifiers of ethnic conflicts include 1) the creation of contested spaces controlled by separatists that are outside of any national public health surveillance system; 2) mass population movements and refugee outflows due to ethnic violence; and 3) changes in land use that expand potential mosquito breeding sites throughout the conflict zone. Continued hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan, combined with the repopulation of key vector species (specifically An. sacharovi) lead us to conclude that populations in the Caucasus remain vulnerable to resurgent outbreaks of ethno-nationalist violence as well as the return of seasonal malaria, even after decades of successful control.     

A political ecology of maladaptation: Insights from a Gramscian theory of the State

This article analyzes a political process in the aftermath of a disaster and explains why and how it led to maladaptation. Grounding Gramsci’s theory of the State on a case of post-disaster response to a fatal mudslide in the city of Sarno in Italy, this research argues that, under certain conditions, civil society and the ruling classes may coalesce to produce policies that are maladaptive. We unpack the mechanisms through which consent was reproduced in Sarno, and show how the claims of civil society were articulated and fused with the hegemonic goals of capital circulation and economic growth, reaffirming a view of government as only a provider of safety. A Gramscian treatment of the State as a process, and not as a thing, highlights that the main barrier to adaptation is not the lack of techno-managerial solutions. It is the lack of political struggle around the social reconfiguration of the logic and functions of the State.     

Light-absorbing particles in snow and ice: Measurement and modeling of climatic and hydrological impact

Light absorbing particles(LAP, e.g., black carbon, brown carbon, and dust) influence water and energy budgets of the atmosphere and snowpack in multiple ways. In addition to their effects associated with atmospheric heating by absorption of solar radiation and interactions with clouds, LAP in snow on land and ice can reduce the surface reflectance(a.k.a., surface darkening), which is likely to accelerate the snow aging process and further reduces snow albedo and increases the speed of snowpack melt. LAP in snow and ice(LAPSI) has been identified as one of major forcings affecting climate change, e.g.in the fourth and fifth assessment reports of IPCC. However, the uncertainty level in quantifying this effect remains very high. In this review paper, we document various technical methods of measuring LAPSI and review the progress made in measuring the LAPSI in Arctic, Tibetan Plateau and other mid-latitude regions. We also report the progress in modeling the mass concentrations, albedo reduction, radiative forcing, and climatic and hydrological impact of LAPSI at global and regional scales. Finally we identify some research needs for reducing the uncertainties in the impact of LAPSI on global and regional climate and the hydrological cycle.     

China’s changing economy and emissions trajectory: following global trends

A key climate policy issue and debate is the future trajectory of emissions of carbon dioxide of countries, their peaking dates, and rates of decline after peaking. This article analyses China’s emissions trajectory in terms of global historical trends distinguishing between industry, infrastructure, and urbanization. Growth of emissions from industrialization and infrastructure development has stabilized in 2014 with saturation levels being reached, while the process of urbanization continues with the shift of the economy to the services sector, with reduced energy use, and this is a global trend. The future trajectory of emissions will be shaped largely by growth of transport and building-related services which directly impact on and are shaped by middle-class levels of well-being. These are areas where convergence with levels of services in other urbanized countries is an important element of national policy. This global trend has not been adequately taken into account in modelling and macroeconomic analysis which ignore social processes. The article concludes that China’s 13th Five Year Plan (2016–2020) seeks to achieve a ‘moderately well-off society’ while putting a cap on total energy demand by modifying the drivers of consumption emissions compared with countries that urbanized earlier. The adoption of a public policy priority of dense mixed-use urban form, public transport, energy efficiency to enable energy system reform, and digital economy could be a model for others.

Policy relevance

The article redefines climate change in terms of social processes as urban form and notions of well-being lock-in increasing levels of future emissions of carbon dioxide. There are implications for research in assessing how best drivers of emissions can be modified without affecting well-being, including renewable and digital technologies and human behaviours that drive patterns of natural resource use as well as the identification of leverage points. There are also broader implications for replacing the development cooperation model of global climate governance to focus on new values recognizing interdependencies for sharing responsibility as well as prosperity.     

化学融雪剂对小麦和玉米种子发芽的影响

研究了不同化学融雪剂浓度对小麦和玉米种子发芽的影响。结果表明:随着融雪剂处理浓度的增加,其对农作物种子发芽的抑制效应呈显著上升趋势,且不同融雪剂品种对同种农作物品种发芽的影响呈现较为明显的差异,不同农作物种子对同种融雪剂的反应差异也较大。在融雪剂胁迫下,小麦种子均表现出比玉米种子较强的发芽能力,且辽春9号比龙麦26号发芽能力更强。1#融雪剂对玉米种子发芽的影响无明显差别,但在2#融雪剂处理中,明玉2号较耐寒豫玉发芽能力强。与1#融雪剂相比,2#融雪剂处理种子的发芽率、发芽指数和活力指数相对较高。     

Legume dreams: The contested futures of sustainable plant-based food systems in Europe

With the intensification of agriculture, the simplification of crop rotations, and the rise in demand for meat, dairy and cereal products, legume production and consumption are at an historic low in Europe. But as the environmental consequences of agriculture (biodiversity loss, high greenhouse gas emissions, water pollution) and the health outcomes of modern diets (heart disease, cancer, diabetes, obesity) become better known, so great and varied hopes are being expressed about the future role of legumes in the food system. This paper catalogues and scrutinises these hopes, mapping the promissory narratives now orbiting around legumes. It identifies six food futures, each of which is made possible through the greater use of legumes in various production, processing, marketing and consumption contexts. These promissory narratives are theorised as contrasting responses to three major areas of contestation in the food systems literature. Namely i) the sustainability of livestock management, ii) the role of technology in different visions of the ‘good diet’, and iii) the merits of different models for how to make agricultural management more sustainable. It identifies the promiscuity of legumes – in terms of the range of food futures they permit – before distilling three points of consensus amongst advocates of the potential of legumes. These points of consensus relate to their nitrogen fixing capacity, their high protein content, and their long-standing historical role in the context of European food and farming. This map of legume dreams serves to guide deliberations amongst researchers, policymakers and industry stakeholders about the futures of plant-based food in Europe.     

Impacts of multiple stressors on mountain communities: Insights from an agent-based model of a Nepalese village

Mountain communities in developing and transitioning countries are experiencing a period of rapid social, economic, and environmental change. While change has long been a feature of mountain life, the rate, magnitude, nature, and number of the transformations now taking place is unprecedented, with profound implications for the sustainability and welfare of mountain communities in the coming years. It is therefore vital that their potential impacts be understood. Considering stressors in isolation can give a false picture as each stressor alters the context within which the other stressors are operating. Holistic approaches are needed. In this paper, a variety of stressors are concurrently simulated within an empirically informed agent-based model of a rural Nepalese mountain community so that their combined impact can be studied. The potential effect of changing fertility rates, increasing crop yield variability, and earthquakes on household finances is considered for the period 2015–2030. Results show that higher fertility rates, increased crop yield variability, and earthquakes all have negative long-term effects on household finances, and that each of these stressors compounds the effect of the other stressors in an additive fashion. Results further highlight heterogeneity in the capacity of households to cope with stressors and demonstrate the important role that happenstance can play in exacerbating the effect of stressors. Our findings suggest that development practitioners should explicitly take multiple stressors into account when considering interventions. They should also contemplate improved microtargeting of households to increase aid effectiveness over the longer term, while recognising that household vulnerability is often dynamic.     

ECMWF极端天气指数在华东台风 降水预报中的应用和检验

选取2015—2018年影响华东地区的13个台风个例,分析降水极端天气指数EFI (Extreme Forecast Index)和SOT (Shift of Tails)与台风降水之间的统计关系。结果表明:EFI和SOT与降水气候百分位之间存在明显的正相关关系。EFI和SOT越大,强降水发生概率越高。随着预报时效的增加,EFI和SOT指数对暴雨和大暴雨的预报效果逐渐变差。对于短期(72 h以内的时效),EFI预报技巧优于SOT,而随着预报时效的延长,SOT的预报技巧逐渐接近并超过EFI。以TS评分最大为标准兼顾合理的预报偏差,得到两种极端天气指数不同预报时效、不同等级暴雨的预报阈值。总体而言,事件越极端,EFI和SOT的预报阈值越大,对于暴雨和大暴雨,EFI指数的预报阈值随着预报时效的延长有减小趋势,而SOT的预报阈值基本保持不变。在台风极端降水预报中,EFI和SOT可以作为EC定量降水预报的补充,有助于减少强降水的漏报,并提早发出预警信息。