The influence of continental ice,atmospheric CO2, and land albedo on the climate of the last glacial maximum

The contributions of expanded continental ice, reduced atmospheric CO₂, and changes in land albedo to the maintenance of the climate of the last glacial maximum (LGM) are examined. A series of experiments is performed using an atmosphere-mixed layer ocean model in which these changes in boundary conditions are incorporated either singly or in combination. The model used has been shown to produce a reasonably realistic simulation of the reduced temperature of the LGM (Manabe and Broccoli 1985b). By comparing the results from pairs of experiments, the effects of each of these environmental changes can be determined.Expanded continental ice and reduced atmospheric CO₂ are found to have a substantial impact on global mean temperature. The ice sheet effect is confined almost exclusively to the Northern Hemisphere, while lowered CO₂ cools both hemispheres. Changes in land albedo over ice-free areas have only a minor thermal effect on a global basis. The reduction of CO₂ content in the atmosphere is the primary contributor to the cooling of the Southern Hemisphere. The model sensitivity to both the ice sheet and CO₂ effects is characterized by a high latitude amplification and a late autumn and early winter maximum.Substantial changes in Northern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation are found in response to LGM boundary conditions during winter. An amplified flow pattern and enhanced westerlies occur in the vicinity of the North American and Eurasian ice sheets. These alterations of the tropospheric circulation are primarily the result of the ice sheet effect, with reduced CO₂ contributing only a slight amplification of the ice sheet-induced pattern.     

The effect of atmospheric CO2 and ice sheet topography on LGM climate

The role of reduced atmospheric CO₂ concentration and ice sheet topography plus its associated land albedo on the LGM climate is investigated using a coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice climate system model. The surface cooling induced by the reduced CO₂ concentration is larger than that by the ice sheet topography plus other factors by about 30% for the surface air temperature and by about 100% for the sea surface temperature. A large inter-hemispheric asymmetry in surface cooling with a larger cooling in the Northern Hemisphere is found for both cases. This asymmetric inter-hemispheric temperature response is consistent in the ice sheet topography case with earlier studies using an atmospheric model coupled with a mixed-layer ocean representation, but contrasts with these results in the reduced CO₂ case. The incorporation of ocean dynamics presumably leads to a larger snow and sea ice feedback as a result of the reduction in northward ocean heat transport, mainly as a consequence of the decrease in the North Atlantic overturning circulation by the substantial freshening of the North Atlantic convection regions. A reversed case is found in the Southern Ocean. Overall, the reduction in atmospheric CO₂ concentration accounts for about 60% of the total LGM climate change.     

Relative contribution of feedback processes to Arctic amplification of temperature change in MIROC GCM

The finding that surface warming over the Arctic exceeds that over the rest of the world under global warming is a robust feature among general circulation models (GCMs). While various mechanisms have been proposed, quantifying their relative contributions is an important task in order to understand model behavior. Here we apply a recently proposed feedback analysis technique to an atmosphere–ocean GCM under two and four times CO₂ concentrations which approximately lead to seasonally and annually sea ice-free climates. The contribution of feedbacks to Arctic temperature change is investigated. The surface warming in the Arctic is contributed by albedo, water vapour and large-scale condensation feedbacks and reduced by the evaporative cooling feedback. The surface warming contrast between the Arctic and the global averages (AA) is maintained by albedo and evaporative cooling feedbacks. The latter contributes to AA predominantly by cooling the low latitudes more than the Arctic. Latent heat transport into the Arctic increases and hence evaporative cooling plus large-scale condensation feedback contributes positively to AA. On the other hand, dry-static energy transport into the Arctic decreases and hence dynamical heating feedback contributes negatively to AA. An important contribution is thus made via changes in hydrological cycle and not via the ‘dry’ heat transport process. A larger response near the surface than aloft in the Arctic is maintained by the albedo, water vapour, and dynamical heating feedbacks, in which the albedo and water vapour feedbacks contribute through warming the surface more than aloft, and the dynamical heating feedback contributes by cooling aloft more than the surface. In our experiments, ocean and sea ice dynamics play a secondary role. It is shown that a different level of CO₂ increase introduces a latitudinal and seasonal difference into the feedbacks.     

Parallel climate model (PCM) control and transient simulations

The Department of Energy (DOE) supported Parallel Climate Model (PCM) makes use of the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM3) and Land Surface Model (LSM) for the atmospheric and land surface components, respectively, the DOE Los Alamos National Laboratory Parallel Ocean Program (POP) for the ocean component, and the Naval Postgraduate School sea-ice model. The PCM executes on several distributed and shared memory computer systems. The coupling method is similar to that used in the NCAR Climate System Model (CSM) in that a flux coupler ties the components together, with interpolations between the different grids of the component models. Flux adjustments are not used in the PCM. The ocean component has 2/3° average horizontal grid spacing with 32 vertical levels and a free surface that allows calculation of sea level changes. Near the equator, the grid spacing is approximately 1/2° in latitude to better capture the ocean equatorial dynamics. The North Pole is rotated over northern North America thus producing resolution smaller than 2/3° in the North Atlantic where the sinking part of the world conveyor circulation largely takes place. Because this ocean model component does not have a computational point at the North Pole, the Arctic Ocean circulation systems are more realistic and similar to the observed. The elastic viscous plastic sea ice model has a grid spacing of 27?km to represent small-scale features such as ice transport through the Canadian Archipelago and the East Greenland current region. Results from a 300?year present-day coupled climate control simulation are presented, as well as for a transient 1% per year compound CO₂ increase experiment which shows a global warming of 1.27?°C for a 10?year average at the doubling point of CO₂ and 2.89?°C at the quadrupling point. There is a gradual warming beyond the doubling and quadrupling points with CO₂ held constant. Globally averaged sea level rise at the time of CO₂ doubling is approximately 7?cm and at the time of quadrupling it is 23?cm. Some of the regional sea level changes are larger and reflect the adjustments in the temperature, salinity, internal ocean dynamics, surface heat flux, and wind stress on the ocean. A 0.5% per year CO₂ increase experiment also was performed showing a global warming of 1.5?°C around the time of CO₂ doubling and a similar warming pattern to the 1% CO₂ per year increase experiment. El Niño and La Niña events in the tropical Pacific show approximately the observed frequency distribution and amplitude, which leads to near observed levels of variability on interannual time scales.     

Ice and climate modeling: An editorial essay

The growth and decay of ice sheets are driven by forces affecting the seasonal cycles of snowfall and snowmelt. The external forces are likely to be variations in the earth's orbit which cause differences in the solar radiation received. Radiational control of snowmelt is modulated by the seasonal cycles of snow albedo and cloud cover. The effects of orbital changes can be magnified by feedbacks involving atmospheric CO₂ content, ocean temperatures and desert areas. Climate modeling of the causes of the Pleistocene ice ages involves modeling the interactions of all components of the climate system; snow, sea ice, glacier ice, the ocean, the atmosphere, and the solid earth. Such modeling is also necessary for interpreting oxygen isotope records from ice and ocean as paleoclimatic evidence.     

Sensitivity of the Humboldt Current system to global warming: a downscaling experiment of the IPSL-CM4 model

The impact of climate warming on the seasonal variability of the Humboldt Current system ocean dynamics is investigated. The IPSL-CM4 large scale ocean circulation resulting from two contrasted climate scenarios, the so-called Preindustrial and quadrupling CO₂, are downscaled using an eddy-resolving regional ocean circulation model. The intense surface heating by the atmosphere in the quadrupling CO₂ scenario leads to a strong increase of the surface density stratification, a thinner coastal jet, an enhanced Peru–Chile undercurrent, and an intensification of nearshore turbulence. Upwelling rates respond quasi-linearly to the change in wind stress associated with anthropogenic forcing, and show a moderate decrease in summer off Peru and a strong increase off Chile. Results from sensitivity experiments show that a 50% wind stress increase does not compensate for the surface warming resulting from heat flux forcing and that the associated mesoscale turbulence increase is a robust feature.     

On the Arctic Ocean ice thickness response to changes in the external forcing

Submarine and satellite observations show that the Arctic Ocean ice cover has undergone a large thickness reduction and a decrease in the areal extent during the last decades. Here the response of the Arctic Ocean ice cover to changes in the poleward atmospheric energy transport, F _wall, is investigated using coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean column models. Two models with highly different complexity are used in order to illustrate the importance of different internal processes and the results highlight the dramatic effects of the negative ice thickness—ice volume export feedback and the positive surface albedo feedback. The steady state ice thickness as a function of F _wall is determined for various model setups and defines what we call ice thickness response curves. When a variable surface albedo and snow precipitation is included, a complex response curve appears with two distinct regimes: a perennial ice cover regime with a fairly linear response and a less responsive seasonal ice cover regime. The two regimes are separated by a steep transition associated with surface albedo feedback. The associated hysteresis is however small, indicating that the Arctic climate system does not have an irreversible tipping point behaviour related to the surface albedo feedback. The results are discussed in the context of the recent reduction of the Arctic sea ice cover. A new mechanism related to regional and temporal variations of the ice divergence within the Arctic Ocean is presented as an explanation for the observed regional variation of the ice thickness reduction. Our results further suggest that the recent reduction in areal ice extent and loss of multiyear ice is related to the albedo dependent transition between seasonal and perennial ice i.e. large areas of the Arctic Ocean that has previously been dominated by multiyear ice might have been pushed below a critical mean ice thickness, corresponding to the above mentioned transition, and into a state dominated by seasonal ice.     

Global warming and the growth of ice sheets

Recent research has suggested that warmer conditions, that may result from increased levels of CO₂ in the atmosphere, may induce the growth of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets (Miller and de Vernal 1992) through the impact of warmer temperature on the water carrying capacity of the atmosphere and thus on precipitation. In this study we examine this possibility by using a coupled energy balance climate-thermo-dynamic sea ice model. Results indicate that if summer ice albedo is high enough, and there is some mechanism for initially maintaining ice through the summer season, then it may be possible to have ice sheet growth under the conditions of CO₂ induced warming.This paper was presented at the Second International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Variability, held in Hamburg 7–11 September 1992 under the auspices of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is L. Dümenil     

The Impact of Sediment-Laden Snow and Sea Ice in the Arctic on Climate

Sea ice formed over shallow Arctic shelves often entrains sediments resuspended from the sea floor. Some of this sediment-laden ice advects offshore into the Transpolar Drift Stream and the Beaufort Gyre of the Arctic Basin. Through the processes of seasonal melting at the top surface, and the freezing of clean ice on the bottom surface, these sediments tend, over time, to concentrate at the top of the ice where they can affect the surface albedo, and thus the absorbed solar radiation, when the ice is snow free. Similarly, wind-blown dust can reduce the albedo of snow. The question that is posed by this study is what is the impact of these sediments on the seasonal variation of sea ice, and how does it then affect climate? Experiments were conducted with a coupled energy balance climate-thermodynamic sea ice model to examine the impact of including sediments in the sea ice alone and in the sea ice and overlying snow. The focus of these experiments was the impact of the radiative and not the thermal properties of the sediments. The results suggest that if sea ice contains a significant amount of sediments which are covered by clean snow, there is only a small impact on the climate system. However, if the snow also contains significant sediments the impact on sea ice thickness and surface air temperature is much more significant.     

Snow cover validation and sensitivity to CO2 in the UVic ESCM

Abstract

The University of Victoria's (UVic) Earth System Climate model is used to conduct equilibrium atmospheric CO₂ sensitivity experiments over the range 200–1600 ppm in order to explore changes in northern hemisphere snow cover and feedbacks on terrestrial surface air temperature (SAT). Simulations of warmer climates predict a retreat of snow cover over northern continents, in a northeasterly direction. The decline in northern hemisphere global snow mass is estimated to reach 33% at 600 ppm and 54% at 1200 ppm. In the most northerly regions, annual mean snow depth increases for simulations with CO₂ levels higher than present day. The shift in the latitude of maximum snowfall is estimated to be inversely proportional to the CO₂ concentration. The northern hemisphere net shortwave radiation changes are found to be greater over land than over the ocean, suggesting a stronger albedo feedback from changes in terrestrial snow cover than from changes in sea ice. Results also reveal high sensitivity of the snow mass balance under low CO₂ conditions. The amplification feedback (defined as the zonal SAT anomaly caused by doubling CO₂ divided by the equatorial anomaly) is greatest for scenarios with less than 300 ppm, reaching 1.9 at the pole for 250 ppm. The stronger feedback is attributed to the significant albedo changes over land areas. The simulation with 200 ppm triggers continuous accumulation of snow ('glaciation') in regions which, according to paleo‐reconstructions, were covered by ice during the last glacial cycle (the Canadian Arctic, Scandinavia, and the Taymir Peninsula).     

Late Pleistocene variations in Antarctic sea ice II: effect of interhemispheric deep-ocean heat exchange

Variations in production rates of warm North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) have been proposed as a mechanism for linking climate fluctuations in the northern and southern hemispheres during the Pleistocene. We have tested this hypothesis by examining the sensitivity of a thermodynamic/dynamic model for Antarctic sea ice to changes in vertical ocean heat flux and comparing the simulations with modified CLIMAP sea-ice maps for 18 000 B.P. Results suggest that changes in NADW production rates, and the consequent changes in the vertical ocean heat flux in the Antarctic, can only account for about 20%–30% of the overall variance in Antarctic sea-ice extent. This conclusion has been validated against an independent geological data set involving a time series of sea-surface temperatures from the subantarctic. The latter comparison suggests that, although the overall influence of NADW is relatively minor, the linkage may be much more significant at the 41 000-year obliquity period. Despite some limitations in the models and geological data, we conclude that NADW variations may have played only a modest role in causing late Pleistocene climate change in the high latitudes of the southern hemisphere. Our conclusion is consistent with calculations by Manabe and Broccoli (1985) suggesting that atmospheric CO₂ changes may be more important for linking the two hemispheres.     

Effects of a melted greenland ice sheet on climate, vegetation, and the cryosphere

This paper investigates the possible implications for the earth-system of a melting of the Greenland ice-sheet. Such a melting is a possible result of increased high latitude temperatures due to increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Using an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM), we investigate the effects of the removal of the ice sheet on atmospheric temperatures, circulation, and precipitation. We find that locally over Greenland, there is a warming associated directly with the altitude change in winter, and the altitude and albedo change in summer. Outside of Greenland, the largest signal is a cooling over the Barents sea in winter. We attribute this cooling to a decrease in poleward heat transport in the region due to changes to the time mean circulation and eddies, and interaction with sea-ice. The simulated climate is used to force a vegetation model and an ice-sheet model. We find that the Greenland climate in the absence of an ice sheet supports the growth of trees in southern Greenland, and grass in central Greenland. We find that the ice sheet is likely to regrow following a melting of the Greenland ice sheet, the subsequent rebound of its bedrock, and a return to present day atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. This regrowth is due to the high altitude bedrock in eastern Greenland which allows the growth of glaciers which develop into an ice sheet.     

On the role of high latitude ice,snow, and vegetation feedbacks in the climatic response to external forcing changes

A seasonal energy balance climate model containing a detailed treatment of surface and planetary albedo, and in which seasonally varying land snow and sea ice amounts are simulated in terms of a number of explicit physical processes, is used to investigate the role of high latitude ice, snow, and vegetation feedback processes. Feedback processes are quantified by computing changes in radiative forcing and feedback factors associated with individual processes. Global sea ice albedo feedback is 5–8 times stronger than global land snowcover albedo feedback for a 2% solar constant increase or decrease, with Southern Hemisphere cryosphere feedback being 2–5 times stronger than Northern Hemisphere cryosphere feedback.In the absence of changes in ice extent, changes in ice thickness in response to an increase in solar constant are associated with an increase in summer surface melting which is exactly balanced by increased basal winter freezing, and a reduction in the upward ocean-air flux in summer which is exactly balanced by an increased flux in winter, with no change in the annual mean ocean-air flux. Changes in the mean annual ocean-air heat flux require changes in mean annual ice extent, and are constrained to equal the change in meridional oceanic heat flux convergence in equilibrium. Feedback between ice extent and the meridional oceanic heat flux obtained by scaling the oceanic heat diffusion coefficient by the ice-free fraction regulates the feedback between ice extent and mean annual air-sea heat fluxes in polar regions, and has a modest effect on model-simulated high latitude temperature change.Accounting for the partial masking effect of vegetation on snow-covered land reduces the Northern Hemisphere mean temperature response to a 2% solar constant decrease or increase by 20% and 10%, respectively, even though the radiative forcing change caused by land snowcover changes is about 3 times larger in the absence of vegetational masking. Two parameterizations of the tundra fraction are tested: one based on mean annual land air temperature, and the other based on July land air temperature. The enhancement of the mean Northern Hemisphere temperature response to solar constant changes when the forest-tundra ecotone is allowed to shift with climate is only 1/3 to 1/2 that obtained by Otterman et al. (1984) when the mean annual parameterization is used here, and only 1/4 to 1/3 as large using the July parameterization.The parameterized temperature dependence of ice and snow albedo is found to enhance the global mean temperature response to a 2% solar constant increase by only 0.04 °C, in sharp contrast to the results of Washington and Meehl (1986) obtained with a mean annual model. However, there are significant differences in the method used here and in Washington and Meehl to estimate the importance of this feedback process. When their approach is used in a mean annual version of the present model, closer agreement to their results is obtained.     

An Unprecedented Record Low Antarctic Sea-ice Extent during Austral Summer 2022

Seasonal minimum Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) in 2022 hit a new record low since recordkeeping began in 1978 of 1.9 million km² on 25 February, 0.17 million km² lower than the previous record low set in 2017. Significant negative anomalies in the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas, the Weddell Sea, and the western Indian Ocean sector led to the new record minimum. The sea ice budget analysis presented here shows that thermodynamic processes dominate sea ice loss in summer through enhanced poleward heat transport and albedo–temperature feedback. In spring, both dynamic and thermodynamic processes contribute to negative sea ice anomalies. Specifically, dynamic ice loss dominates in the Amundsen Sea as evidenced by sea ice thickness (SIT) change, while positive surface heat fluxes contribute most to sea ice melt in the Weddell Sea.     

Sea‐ice dynamics and CO2 sensitivity in a global climate model

Abstract

Present‐day results and CO₂ sensitivity are described for two versions of a global climate model (genesis) with and without sea‐ice dynamics. Sea‐ice dynamics is modelled using the cavitating‐fluid method of Flato and Hibler (1990, 1992). The atmospheric general circulation model originated from the NCAR Community Climate Model version 1, but is heavily modified to include new treatments of clouds, penetrative convection, planetary boundary‐layer mixing, solar radiation, the diurnal cycle and the semi‐Lagrangian transport of water vapour. The surface models include an explicit model of vegetation (similar to BATS and SiB), multilayer models of soil, snow and sea ice, and a slab ocean mixed layer.

When sea‐ice dynamics is turned off, the CO₂‐induced warming increases drastically around ～60–80°S in winter and spring. This is due to the much greater (and unrealistic) compactness of the Antarctic ice cover without dynamics, which is reduced considerably when CO₂ is doubled and exposes more open ocean to the atmosphere. With dynamics, the winter ice is already quite dispersed for 1 × CO₂ so that its compactness does not decrease as much when CO₂ is doubled.     

Climatic variability within an equilibrium greenhouse simulation

A simulation of the possible consequences of a doubling of the CO₂ content of the atmosphere has been performed with a low resolution global climatic model. The model included the diurnal and seasonal cycles, computed sea ice amount and cloud cover, and used implied oceanic heat fluxes to represent transport processes in the oceans. A highly responsive 2-layer soil moisture formulation was also incorporated. Twenty year equilibrated simulations for control (1 × CO₂) and greenhouse (2 × CO₂) conditions were generated. The major emphasis of the analysis presented here is on the intra-annual and interannual variability of the greenhouse run with respect to the control run. This revealed considerable differences from the time-averaged results with occasions of marked positive and negative temperature deviations. Of particular interest were the periods of negative temperature departures compared to the control run which were identified, especially over the Northern Hemisphere continents. Temporal and spatial precipitation and soil moisture anomalies also occurred, some of which were related to the surface temperature changes. Substantial sea surface temperature anomalies were apparent in the greenhouse run, indicating that a source of climatic forcing existed in addition to that due to doubling of the CO₂. Comparison of the intra-annual and interannual variability of the control run with that of the greenhouse run suggests that, in many situations, it will be difficult to identify a greenhouse signal against the intrinsic natural variability of the climatic system.     

Ice Age mystery: a proposed theory for the cause of long term climate change

Summary ?Analysis of available data shows that the duration of the glacial/interglacial cycle is determined by the time for the ocean to go through one major temperature cycle. At the start of an interglacial period, clear skies with consequent release of CO₂ from the ocean, warms the atmosphere, which in turn eventually warms the ocean to its maximum. Cloudy skies then cause the climate (land and air temperature) to cool and the CO₂ to be reabsorbed to start glaciation preliminaries. The albedo feedback effect of the glacial ice, a relatively warm ocean, which produces enhanced cloud cover, and the increased solubility of CO₂ in cold seawater ensure a long period of glaciation. Glacial periods end when pack ice spreads out on the ocean cooling it until reduced cloud cover once again allows the Sun’s heat, unreflected by cloud cover, to melt the ice and release CO₂ back into the atmosphere. Received May 22, 2002; accepted June 20, 2002     

Polar amplification: is atmospheric heat transport important?

Surface albedo feedback is widely believed to be the principle contributor to polar amplification. However, a number of studies have shown that coupled ocean-atmosphere models without ice albedo feedbacks still produce significant polar amplification in 2 × CO₂ runs due to atmospheric heat transports and their interaction with surface conditions. In this article, the relative importance of atmospheric heat transport and surface albedo is assessed using a conceptual 2-box energy balance model in a variety of different model climates. While both processes are shown to independently contribute to the polar amplified response of the model, formal feedback analysis indicates that a strong surface albedo response will tend to reduce the effect of atmospheric heat transport in the full model. We identify several scenarios near the present day climate in which, according to this formal feedback analysis, atmospheric heat transport plays no role in shaping the equilibrium warming response to uniform forcing. However, a closer analysis shows that even in these scenarios the presence of atmospheric heat transport feedback does play a significant role in shaping the trajectory by which the climate adjusts to its new equilibrium.     

Albedo of coastal landfast sea ice in Prydz Bay,Antarctica: Observations and parameterization

The snow/sea-ice albedo was measured over coastal landfast sea ice in Prydz Bay, East Antarctica(off Zhongshan Station)during the austral spring and summer of 2010 and 2011. The variation of the observed albedo was a combination of a gradual seasonal transition from spring to summer and abrupt changes resulting from synoptic events, including snowfall, blowing snow, and overcast skies. The measured albedo ranged from 0.94 over thick fresh snow to 0.36 over melting sea ice. It was found that snow thickness was the most important factor influencing the albedo variation, while synoptic events and overcast skies could increase the albedo by about 0.18 and 0.06, respectively. The in-situ measured albedo and related physical parameters(e.g., snow thickness, ice thickness, surface temperature, and air temperature) were then used to evaluate four different snow/ice albedo parameterizations used in a variety of climate models. The parameterized albedos showed substantial discrepancies compared to the observed albedo, particularly during the summer melt period, even though more complex parameterizations yielded more realistic variations than simple ones. A modified parameterization was developed,which further considered synoptic events, cloud cover, and the local landfast sea-ice surface characteristics. The resulting parameterized albedo showed very good agreement with the observed albedo.     

Ice cover as a link in the ocean-atmosphere system

The paper is a contribution to present knowledge of the system: atmosphere-ice-ocean. A theoretical model for investigation of the dynamics and thermodynamics of an ice-cover regime is suggested.Based on this physical model, a series of numerical experiments has been performed to define the influence of changing external conditions on the ice cover regime (variations of albedo and heat flux from water to the lower ice surface).