On the Bayesian analysis of the earthquake hazard in the North-East Indian peninsula

The Bayesian extreme-value distribution of earthquake occurrences has been used to estimate the seismic hazard in 12 seismogenic zones of the North-East Indian peninsula. The Bayesian approach has been used very efficiently to combine the prior information on seismicity obtained from geological data with historical observations in many seismogenic zones of the world. The basic parameters to obtain the prior estimate of seismicity are the seismic moment, slip rate, earthquake recurrence rate and magnitude. These estimates are then updated in terms of Bayes’ theorem and historical evaluations of seismicity associated with each zone. From the Bayesian analysis of extreme earthquake occurrences for North-East Indian peninsula, it is found that for T = 5 years, the probability of occurrences of magnitude (M _w = 5.0–5.5) is greater than 0.9 for all zones. For M _w = 6.0, four zones namely Z1 (Central Himalayas), Z5 (Indo-Burma border), Z7 (Burmese arc) and Z8 (Burma region) exhibit high probabilities. Lower probability is shown by some zones namely␣Z4, Z12, and rest of the zones Z2, Z3, Z6, Z9, Z10 and Z11 show moderate probabilities.     

The 20 March 1992 South Aegean,Greece, earthquake (Ms= 5.3): possible anomalous effects

The earthquake (M_s= 5.3) of 20 March 1992 and its aftershocks, which occurred near the volcanic island complex of Milos, South Aegean, Greece, are studied on the basis of filed observations and instrumental data. The mainshock caused some building damage, the maximum intensity of VI+ (MM) being assigned to Triovasalos, Milos. Ground cracks, liquefaction in soil, landslides and rockfalls were observed in Milos. Liquefaction took place at an apparently anomalously long epicentral distance (D= 12 km) and is associated with unusually small earthquake magnitude. Abnormal animal behaviour was reported no longer than twelve hours before the mainshock. The b-value (= 1.02) of the G–R relation for the aftershock sequence, the exponentially decreasing number of aftershocks with time, and the difference (= 0.5) in magnitude between the mainshock and its largest aftershock imply that the origin of these earthquakes is tectonic and not associated with the volcanic field of Milos.     

3-D seismic structure of the source area of the 1993 Latur, India, earthquake and its implications for rupture nucleations

The Latur earthquake (M_w 6.1) of 29 September 1993 is a rare stable continental region (SCR) earthquake that occurred on a previously unknown blind fault. In this study, we determined detailed three-dimensional (3-D) P- and S-wave velocity (V_p, V_s) and Poisson's ratio (σ) structures by inverting the first P- and S-wave high-quality arrival time data from 142 aftershocks that were recorded by a network of temporary seismic stations. The source zone of the Latur earthquake shows strong lateral heterogeneities in V_p, V_s and σ structures, extending in a volume of about 90 × 90 × 15 km³. The mainshock occurred within, but near the boundary, of a low-V_p, high-V_s and low-σ zone. This suggests that the structural asperities at the mainshock hypocenter are associated with a partially fluid-saturated fractured rock in a previously unknown source zone with intersecting fault surfaces. This might have triggered the 1993 Latur mainshock and its aftershock sequence. Our results are in good agreement with other geophysical studies that suggest high conductivity and high concentration of radiogenic helium gas beneath the source zone of the Latur earthquake. Our study provides an additional evidence for the presence of fluid related anomaly at the hidden source zone of the Latur earthquake in the SCR and helps us understand the genesis of damaging earthquakes in the SCR of the world.     

Simultaneous inversion of the aftershock data of the 1993 Killari earthquake in Peninsular India and its seismotectonic implications

The aftershock sequence of the September 30th, 1993 Killari earthquake in the Latur district of Maharashtra state, India, recorded by 41 temporary seismograph stations are used for estimating 3-D velocity structure in the epicentral area. The local earthquake tomography (LET) method of Thurber (1983) is used. About 1500P and 1200S wave travel-times are inverted. TheP andS wave velocities as well asV _P/V_Sratio vary more rapidly in the vertical as well as in the horizontal directions in the source region compared to the adjacent areas. The main shock hypocentre is located at the junction of a high velocity and a low velocity zone, representing a fault zone at 6–7 km depth. The estimated average errors ofP velocity andV _P/V_Sratio are ±0.07 km/s and ±0.016, respectively. The best resolution ofP and S-wave velocities is obtained in the aftershock zone. The 3-D velocity structure and precise locations of the aftershocks suggest a ‘stationary concept’ of the Killari earthquake sequence.     

Preliminary Results of In‐situ Stress Measurements along the Longmenshan Fault Zone after the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake

Abstract: Four months after the Wenchuan Ms 8 earthquake in western Sichuan, China, in situ stress measurements were carried out along the Longmenshan fault zone with the purpose of obtaining stress parameters for earthquake hazard assessment. In-situ stresses were measured in three new boreholes by using overcoring with the piezomagnetic stress gauges for shallow depths and hydraulic fracturing for lower depths. The maximum horizontal stress in shallow depths (~20 m) is about 4.3 MPa, oriented N19°E, in the epicenter area at Yingxiu Town, about 9.7 MPa, oriented N51°W, at Baoxing County in the southwestern Longmenshan range, and about 2.6 MPa, oriented N39°E, near Kangding in the southernmost zone of the Longmenshan range. Hydraulic fracturing at borehole depths from 100 to 400 m shows a tendency towards increasing stress with depth. A comparison with the results measured before the Wenchuan earthquake along the Longmenshan zone and in the Tibetan Plateau demonstrates that the stress level remains relatively high in the southwestern segment of the Longmenshan range, and is still moderate in the epicenter zone. These results provide a key appraisal for future assessment of earthquake hazards of the Longmenshan fault zone and the aftershock occurrences of the Wenchuan earthquake.     

The Source Mechanism of the Athens Earthquake,September 7, 1999, Estimated from P Seismograms Recorded at Long Range

On 7 September, 1999, an earthquake (5.8 m_b ^USGS)took place about 20 km from the centre of Athens, until then a seismically quiet region ofeastern Greece. Considerable damage ranging from rock falls to the collapse of reinforcedconcrete structures was reported in the city and surrounding area. No surface break which couldbe directly attributed to rupture on the fault plane was mapped. We use the relativeamplitude method and forward modelling of broadband P seismogramsrecorded at long range to produce a two-dimensional model of the source. We conclude that the earthquake tookplace on a south-west dipping normal fault at a depth of 10 km. This implies that the depthof the seismogenic zone in the area is comparable to other more active regions of Greece.The rupture speed (2.1 km/s) and stress drop (0.54 MPa) are low and are typical of earthquakesin a tectonic environment dominated by high rates of extension. The estimated seismicmoment is 6.014 × 10¹⁷ N m. We have investigated reported rupture directivity and thepossibility of a circular rupture is also examined. Extrapolation of the fault plane to the freesurface suggests that the earthquake took place on a structure associated with the Fili fault.     

Estimation of causative fault parameters of the Rudbar earthquake of June 20, 1990 from near field SH-wave data

We analyze the strong motion accelerograms recorded for the large (M_S=7.7, M_W=7.3, m_b=6.4) Rudbar earthquake of June 20, 1990. The earthquake had a complex source process. We have identified the imprints of rupture of three localized asperities on the major causative fault on the accelerograms. These asperities are interpreted to correspond to (i) the main shock that initiated the rupture process and was located in the domino block between the Kabateh and Zard Goli faults, (ii) a foreshock that occurred about 10 s earlier in the Kabateh fault and (iii) a later shock, on the western end of the Baklor fault, which terminated the bilateral rupture process at the western end. We estimate the strike, dip and slip of these causative sub-event rupture planes using the SH spectral amplitudes, based on a point source representation of sub-events and a non-linear least square formulation for inversion of the amplitude data. The results of our inversion of the near field data are comparable to other studies based on teleseismic data.     

Seismotectonics of the 26 November 2005 Jiujiang-Ruichang, Jiangxi, Ms?5.7 Earthquake

The 26 November 2005 Jiujiang-Ruichang, Jiangxi, Ms?5.7 earthquake occurred in a seismotectonic setting of moderate earthquake. The northwest-trending Xiangfan-Guangji fault (XFG) does not enter into the epicenter vicinity, but the northeast-trending Ruichang-Wuning fault (RWF) as a regional fault extends to the epicenter nearby, appearing as the Ruichang basin and its marginal faults. Tilting of the Ruichang Basin (RCB) in the Quaternary was controlled by the RCB southeast-marginal, buried fault (RSMBF). Shallow geophysical survey reveals that the RSMBF caused an offset of the reflection layers. Drill hole columnar section demonstrates that there are about 10–12?m displacement in the lower section of the middle-Pleistocene Series along the RSMBF, but no disruption is found in the upper section of the middle-Pleistocene Series. The RSMBF not only has activity in the Quaternary, but also coincides with the nodal plane I from the focal mechanism of the Jiujiang-Ruichang Ms?5.7 earthquake. This evidence, including aftershock distribution and isoseismic lines, strongly suggests that the RSMBF might be the seismogenic tectonics. The RWF is discontinuous at the surface, and consists of three en echelon Quaternary basins, which are the Ruichang, Fanzhen and Wuning basins. Three moderate earthquakes, the Fanzhen ML?4.9 earthquake, the Yejiapu ML?4.1 earthquake and the Jiujiang-Ruichang Ms?5.7 earthquake, have happened in the basins since 1995. The seismogenic tectonics of the Jiujiang-Ruichang Ms?5.7 earthquake is not isolated, but may be controlled by the RWF at depth, the slip of which causes the accumulation of energy for earthquake occurrence.     

Observations from the 12 October 1992 Dahshour earthquake in Egypt

An earthquake of local magnitude 5.3 (duration magnitudeM _d ) on the Richter Scale occurred at Dahshour, 18 km south of Cairo, Egypt, on Monday, 12 October 1992 at 3:09 pm (local time). Numerous aftershocks followed the main event during the following weeks with magnitude up to 4.3. The earthquake occurred in an area that has had no recent seismic activity, and affected many cities in Egypt. Many buildings and monuments were severely damaged or collapsed. Modern concrete skeletal structures suffered minor nonstructural damage. Earthquake physical damage was estimated at about one billion U.S. Dollars. The severity of the damage was mainly due to poor construction materials and detailing, aging, inferior workmanship, and inadequate maintenance. Egypt was generally considered to be an area of moderate seismic activity. In 1989, earthquake provisions were first introduced in the Egyptian Code of Practice for Reinforced Concrete Structures only. The earthquake clearly showed the urgent need for an assessment and rehabilitation program to mitigate seismic risk hazard in existing structures. In addition, future development planning, and earthquake preparedness strategies should implement lessons learned from the event. In this paper, an overview discussion about the observations from the 12 October earthquake is presented.     

Magnetic fingerprint of tsunami-induced deposits in the Ixtapa–Zihuatanejo Area,Western Mexico

The Pacific coast of Mexico has repeatedly been exposed to destructive tsunamis. Recent studies have shown that rock magnetic methods can be a promising approach for identification of tsunami- or storm-induced deposits. We present new rock magnetic and anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) results in order to distinguish tsunami deposits in the Ixtapa–Zihuatanejo area. The sampled, 80 cm-deep sequence is characterized by the presence of two anomalous sand beds within fine-grained coastal deposits. The lower bed is probably associated with the 14 March 1979 Petatlán earthquake (M _W = 7.6), whereas the second one formed during the 21 September 1985 Mexico earthquake (M _W = 8.1). Rock magnetic experiments discovered significant variations within the analysed sequence. Thermomagnetic curves reveal two types of behaviour: one in the upper part of the sequence, after the occurrence of the first tsunami, and the other in the lower part of the sequence, during that event and below. Analysis of hysteresis parameter ratios in a Day plot also allows us to distinguish two kinds of behaviour. The samples associated with the second tsunami plot in the pseudo-single-domain area. In contrast, specimens associated with the first tsunami and the time between both tsunamis display a very different trend, which can be ascribed to the production of a considerable amount of superparamagnetic grains, which might be due to pedogenic processes after the first tsunami. The studied profile is characterized by a sedimentary fabric with almost vertical minimum principal susceptibilities. The maximum susceptibility axis shows a declination angle D = 27°, suggesting a NNE flow direction which is the same for both tsunamis and normal currents. Standard AMS parameters display a significant enhancement within the transitional zone between both tsunamis. The study of rock magnetic parameters may represent a useful tool for the identification and understanding of tsunami deposits.     

基于分裂节点法的地震同震和震后形变数值模拟及其在汶川大地震中的应用

大地震导致的同震及震后效应,对于分析不同地震之间的相互影响及区域地震危险性等有着重要的作用.文中开发了模拟地震同震及震后效应的三维黏弹性有限元程序,通过计算走滑断层震例(概念性模型)引起的同震及震后效应,并与解析/半解析解进行对比,验证了程序的可靠性.同时基于概念性模型,分析了不同介质参数对同震及震后的地表变形的影响....     

The January 6, 2006, Balei earthquake as a reflection of the present tectonic activity of the east Trans-Baikal Region

The results of detailed studies of the January 6, 2006, Balei earthquake (K _p = 13.1, M _b = 4.7 [7]), which occurred in an almost aseismic area of the east Trans-Baikal Region, are presented. The focal mechanism and dynamical characteristics of the focus are considered, and the structural-tectonic position of the focus is analyzed. It is supposed that the focus of this seismic event coincides with an activated segment of the northwest-striking Balei-Darasun fault. The maximal observed macroseismic intensity was 5–6 points by the MSK-64 scale (in the town of Baleis). The origination of foci for the earthquake with such intensity and magnitude takes place substantially owing to subhorizontal northeastern compression, the varied-rank block structure of the medium, and low rate values of tectonic motions; on aggregate, all these factors promote the accumulation of stresses in the Earth’s crust. The obtained data can be useful for the purpose of assessment in seismic danger of the region.     

The Seismogenic Structure and Deformation Mechanism of the Lushan (Mw 6.6) Earthquake,Sichuan, China

On April 20 th, 2013, an earthquake of magnitude MW 6.6 occurred at Lushan of Sichuan on the southern segment of the Longmenshan fault zone, with no typical coseismic surface rupture. This work plotted an isoseismal map of the earthquake after repositioning over 400 post–earthquake macro–damage survey points from peak ground acceleration(PGA) data recorded by the Sichuan Digital Strong Earthquake Network. This map indicates that the Lushan earthquake has a damage intensity of IX on the Liedu scale, and that the meizoseismal area displays an oblate ellipsoid shape, with its longitudinal axis in the NE direction. No obvious directivity was detected. Furthermore, the repositioning results of 3323 early aftershocks, seismic reflection profiles and focal mechanism solutions suggests that the major seismogenic structure of the earthquake was the Dayi Fault, which partly defines the eastern Mengshan Mountain. This earthquake resulted from the thrusting of the Dayi Fault, and caused shortening of the southern segment of the Longmenshan in the NW–SE direction. Coseismal rupture was also produced in the deep of the Xinkaidian Fault. Based on the above seismogenic model and the presentation of coseismic surface deformation, it is speculated that there is a risk of more major earthquakes occurring in this region.     

云南盈江2014年5·30M_s6.1地震的主要震害特征

通过实地考察,对2014年5月30日9时20分云南省德宏傣族景颇族自治州发生的6.1级地震中的房屋震害特点及主要次生地质灾害特征进行了全面分析,并初步总结了各类房屋建筑及主要地质灾害的震害特征及其成因。研究结果表明,对于西南山区类似盈江的地震多发区带,城镇建设过程中在尽量选择高强度建筑材料且保证建筑材料合格的同时,还要充分重视科学选址,应尽量避开滑坡、崩塌、泥石流等地震地质灾害易发地带;对稳定性较差的场地应通过必要的地基处理工程进行加固,以尽可能减小地震造成的破坏;在易发生地质灾害的道路周边还应采取适当的加固措施以避免地震来临时造成交通瘫痪,进而引发更大的生命财产损失。     

The earthquake in the Swabian Jura of 16 November 1911 and present concepts of seismotectonics

Beginning with the Swabian Jura earthquake in 1911 the seismic activity in Central Europe is concentrated to this area. A comparison with other events of the same epicentral region shows that the largest earthquake in Germany has the character of a left-lateral horizontal strike slip striking N — NNE. The focal parameters can be assumed within the following intervalls: Seismic moment M_o = 1…8·10¹⁷ Nm; focal area F_o = 18…53 km²; average dislocation d_o = 20…53 cm and stress drop Δp_o = 13…19 bar.     

Abnormal Phenomena Recorded by Several Earthquake Precursor Observation Instruments Before the Ms 8.0 Wenchuan,Sichuan Earthquake

Abstract: The paper introduces the anomalies observed by digital tiltmeter, cross-fault deformation meter, 4-component borehole strainmeter and geothermometer before May 12, 2008, Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, Sichuan. The digital tiltmeter installed in the epicentral region in Shifang County recorded the tilt anomalies 15 days before the earthquake with variation amplitude of 3.7 times larger than the annual deviation of 2007. The cross-fault deformation meter installed at Zimakua station on the Xianshuihe-Anninghe fault zone detected displacement anomaly occurring since 2006 with the variation amplitude exceeding the cumulative value of the last ten years. Five borehole strainmeter stations in the Chongqing section of Three Gorges Reservoir area observed unconventional strain changes occurring in the period from May 1 through 12, 2008. Among them, the strainmeter at Wanzhou station recorded the great compression strain rate on the EW component at 14:00 o'clock of May 10, and the anomaly amplitude was so large that the instrument output exceeded its dynamic range, corresponding to a level of ~104 nanostrains. The geothermometers installed in Xi’an, Chongqing and Xichang recorded the sudden temperature changes from November 2007 to January 2008 with the variation amplitudes several times larger than the ordinary deviation. The above phenomena and the criteria for distinguishing the anomalies from background fluctuations are discussed in this paper.     

Aftershock activity of Bhuj earthquake of january 26th, 2001

Following a large-sized Bhuj earthquake (M _s = 7.6) of January 26th, 2001, a small aperture 4-station temporary local network was deployed, in the epicentral area, for a period of about three weeks and resulted in the recording of more than 1800 aftershocks (-0.07 ≤M _L <5.0). Preliminary locations of epicenters of 297 aftershocks (2.0 ≤M _L <5.0) have brought out a dense cluster of aftershock activity, the center of which falls 20 km NW of Bhachau. Epicentral locations of after-shocks encompass a surface area of about 50 × 40 km² that seems to indicate the surface projection of the rupture area associated with the earthquake. The distribution of aftershock activity above magnitude 3, shows that aftershocks are nonuniformly distributed and are aligned in the north, northwest and northeast directions. The epicenter of the mainshock falls on the southern edge of the delineated zone of aftershock activity and the maximum clustering of activity occurs in close proximity of the mainshock. Well-constrained focal depths of 122 aftershocks show that 89% of the aftershocks occurred at depths ranging between 6 and 25 km and only 7% and 4% aftershocks occur at depths less than 5 and more than 25 km respectively. The Gutenberg-Richter (GR) relationship, logN = 4.52 - 0.89M_L, is fitted to the aftershock data (1.0<-M _L<5.0) and theb-value of 0.89 has been estimated for the aftershock activity.     

Comparison of the pseudo-static and dynamic behaviour of gravity retaining walls

Summary Pseudo-static and dynamic non-linear finite element analyses have been performed to assess the dynamic behaviour of gravity retaining walls subjected to horizontal earthquake loading. In the pseudo-static analysis, the peak ground acceleration is converted into a pseudo-static inertia force and applied as a horizontal incremental gravity load. In the dynamic analysis, an actual measured earthquake acceleration time history has been scaled to provide peak ground acceleration values of 0.1 g and 0.3 g. Good agreement is obtained between the pseudo-static analysis and analytical methods for the calculation of the active coefficient of earth pressure. However, the results from the dynamic analysis require careful interpretation. In the pseudo-static analysis, the increase in the point of application of the resultant active force with the horizontal earthquake coefficient k _h from the one-third point to the mid-height of the wall is clearly observed. In the dynamic analysis, the variation in the point of application is shown to be a function of the type of wall deformation. Both finite element analyses indicate the importance of determining the magnitude of the predicted displacements when assessing the behaviour of the wall to seismic loading.     

Spatial characteristics of landslides triggered by the 2015 M<Subscript>w</Subscript> 7.8 (Gorkha) and M<Subscript>w</Subscript> 7.3 (Dolakha) earthquakes in Nepal

High magnitude earthquakes trigger numerous landslides and their occurrences are mainly controlled by terrain parameters. We created an inventory of 15,551 landslides with a total area of 90.2 km² triggered by the 2015 M_w 7.8 (Gorkha) and M_w 7.3 (Dolakha) earthquakes in Nepal, through interpretation of very high resolution satellite images (e.g. WorldView, Pleiades, Cartosat-1 and 2, Resourcesat-2). Our spatial analysis of landslide occurrences with ground acceleration, slope, lithology and surface defomation indicated ubiquitous control of steep slope on landslides with ground acceleration as the trigger. Spatial distribution of landslides shows increasing frequency away from the Gorkha earthquake epicentre up to 130 km towards east, dropping sharply thereafter, which is an abnormal phenomenon of coseismic landslides. Landslides are laterally concentrated in three zones which matches well with the seismic rupture evolution of Gorkha earthquake, as reported through teleseismic measurements.     

四川九寨沟Ms7.0级地震滑坡应急快速评估

基于地震滑坡危险性评估的Newmark累积位移模型,利用震前获取的震区地形数据、区域地质资料,结合地震动近实时获取技术,开展了四川九寨沟M_s7.0级地震诱发滑坡的应急快速评估。地震滑坡位移分析结果表明,同震滑坡活动的中—高强度区分布在断层两侧宽约4 km的带状区域内,整体沿北西方向延伸。其中,极震区的丰雪塘、日则和干海子等城镇驻地及附近道路的滑坡强度相对较高;震前、震后影像对比表明九寨沟地震诱发的滑坡类型以浅表型碎屑流及小规模崩塌为主,且同震碎屑流多是在震前已有碎屑流的基础上进一步活动扩展而来,震后汛期泥石流隐患也不容忽视;通过典型地区滑坡位移分析结果与震前、震后影像对比,表明滑坡位移分析结果能够较好的反映同震滑坡的宏观分布特征,但在场地尺度上吻合程度欠佳,后续将通过提升岩性和地形等数据质量进行改进。研究结果可为灾情研判提供宝贵信息,对提高灾害应急救援效率具有重要意义。