山东夏季两次切变线暴雨过程对比分析

利用常规观测资料、卫星云图、多普勒天气雷达和NCEP1°×1°再分析资料,对2012年7月30日和2013年7月9日山东出现的两次区域性暴雨进行了对比分析,结果表明：两次850 hPa切变线造成的暴雨,线状MCS(Mesoscale Convective System)组织化程度高,地面辐合线触发了暴雨的发生。不同的是:①“7〖DK〗·30”暴雨500 hPa影响系统为阶梯槽,副高位于朝鲜半岛以东;“7〖DK〗·9”暴雨为典型的东高西低形势,副高控制华东沿海;②“7〖DK〗·30”暴雨受一股较强的东南气流作用,将东海及西太平洋水汽输送到暴雨区,925 hPa水汽通量散度和最强上升速度较“7〖DK〗·9”暴雨分别大-10 g〖DK〗·hPa-1〖DK〗·cm-2〖DK〗·s-1和-0.2 Pa〖DK〗·s-1,“7〖DK〗·9”暴雨由低空西南急流将南海的水汽输送到暴雨区,925 hPa水汽通量和比湿较“7〖DK〗·30”暴雨分别大2~4 g〖DK〗·cm-1〖DK〗·hPa-1〖DK〗·s-1和2 g〖DK〗·kg-1;③两次暴雨过程MCS发生发展过程、形成方式和成熟期组织结构存在显著差异,“7〖DK〗·30”暴雨是对流单体独立发展逐渐合并成β中尺度,最终形成α中尺度对流系统,“7〖DK〗·9”暴雨为多个对流单体合并为β中尺度系统。通过分析得出,切变线暴雨触发机制应着眼于地面辐合线的形成和加强以及冷空气侵入引起的锋生。     

1961—2020年青海高原气候变化特征

选取1961—2020年青海高原50个地面气象观测站逐月气温（平均、最高、最低）、降水和风速资料,利用气候变化趋势转折判别模型（Piecewise Linear Fitting Model,PLFIM）、气候倾向率等方法,分析青海高原气候变化的时空分布和年代际趋势转折变化等特征。结果表明：〖JP2〗①近60年来青海高原年平均气温呈显著上升趋势,其中平均最低气温的升温速率尤为明显,为0.62 ℃〖DK〗·（10a）-1;年降水量呈波动上升趋势,进入21世纪后呈显著增加趋势,速率为39.9 mm〖DK〗·（10a）-1;年平均风速整体呈减小趋势,其中以茫崖站最为明显,风速减小速率为-0.56 m〖DK〗·s-1〖DK〗·（10a）-1。〖JP〗②年平均气温和平均最高气温在1972年和1983年发生了年代际趋势转折,平均最高气温第3次转折发生在2009年,平均最低气温没有发生明显的年代际趋势转折。年降水在1972年、1983年和2000年发生年代际趋势转折;年平均风速发生在1998年和2009年。③与旧气候态（1961—1990年）相比,新气候态下（1991—2020年）青海高原年平均气温、平均最高气温和平均最低气温的均值分别上升了1.16 ℃、1.22 ℃和1.81 ℃,向高温方向漂移,且概率密度分布形状更加偏平,气候趋于不稳定;④在全球变暖背景下,青海高原年平均气温和年降水量均呈增加趋势,其中年平均气温的增温速率远超中国、同纬度地区及全球平均水平;降水量年际波动较大,但整体呈增加趋势。     

2006-2017年成都地区酸雨变化特征及趋势分析

利用成都地区温江、简阳两个酸雨观测站2006—2017年的历史酸雨观测资料，结合主要大气污染物浓度数据以及降水量、风等地面气象要素，分析成都地区的酸雨变化特征及趋势。研究结果表明：温江站多年平均pH值为4.74，酸雨频率为51.6%，简阳站多年平均pH值为5.64，酸雨频率为27.2%，酸雨频率在地理区域上分布呈现不均一性；降水pH值和电导率(K)季节变化特征显著，降水pH值夏季最高，冬季最低，而降水K值则相反，夏季最小，冬季最大；近年来酸雨年变化有年平均pH值上升、酸雨频率下降和强度减弱趋势特征，年平均K值减小规律明显：温江K值以每年约3.5 μS〖DK〗·cm-1〖DK〗·a-1的速率下降，简阳以每年约3.7 μS〖DK〗·cm-1〖DK〗·a-1的速率下降；降水pH值与大气污染物SO2、NO2的负相关较为明显，相关系数为-0.488，硫氧化物对酸雨污染贡献逐渐减小；降水K值和大气主要污染物有较强的正相关，相关系数为0.657，与PM10、PM2.5相关性好于与SO2、NO2，近地层大气污染颗粒物浓度对降水K值影响较大；降水pH值与降水量级的变化不明显,但降水量越大其K值越小，且随平均风速的增大降水pH值相对偏大而K值偏小。     

基于梯度提升树算法的广州市紫外辐射拟合模型构建与相关因子分析

利用2019—2021年广州市紫外辐射数据、常规气象观测数据以及环境空气质量观测数据,对广州市紫外线辐射强度变化特征及与气象、环境因子的相关性进行分析,选择与广州市紫外辐射显著相关的7种特征因子,采用梯度提升树（Gradient Boosting Decision Tree,GBDT）算法建立广州市紫外辐射拟合模型。〖JP2〗结果表明：①广州市紫外线辐射强度具有明显的季节变化和日变化特征,季节变化表现为夏秋季高、冬春季低的特征。2020、2021年紫外辐射强度的最大值出现在7月,2019年出现在9月。3年紫外线辐射最小值都出现在3月,2020年最小为15.9 W〖DK〗·m-2。〖JP〗日变化呈现出早晚小中午大的特征,于12：00左右达到日最大值;②与紫外线辐射强度显著相关的因子为气温、能见度、总云量、相对湿度、太阳高度角、臭氧(O3)浓度、二氧化氮(NO2)浓度;③紫外线辐射模型拟合效果较好,训练集和测试集的决定〖JP2〗系数R2分别为0．93、0．80,对应的均方根误差RMSE为2.7 W〖DK〗·m－2、4.9 W〖DK〗·m－2。〖JP〗模型拟合估算等级正确的为75%,相差1级的占21%,相差2级的比例为4%。     

4次大暴雨过程雷达径向速度和超低空西南急流特征分析

利用多普勒天气雷达VWP资料,结合探空资料和降水实况,对4次大暴雨降水过程雷达径向速度和超低空西南急流特征进行了分析。4次强降水过程有3次属于低槽冷锋类,1次属于切变线类,K值较大,850 hPa与500 hPa温差较小,较弱的垂直风切变,中低层具有充沛水汽。低层具有相似的流场结构,径向速度上零速度线表现为“S”型,即暖平流结构。上游超低空风速≥10 m〖DK〗·s-1,上下游雷达之间出现≥5 m〖DK〗·s-1的风速差之后,两部雷达之间出现小时雨量30 mm以上的强降水;上游超低空急流达到12 m〖DK〗·s-1以上,并且上下游超低空风速差超过15 m〖DK〗·s-1,降水强度进一步加强并维持。超低空急流的建立与维持,同时上下游雷达之间的超低空强辐合,为降水风暴的发展与维持提供了能量、水汽与动力条件,对强降水的形成与持续具有重要作用。     

2020年春末夏初浙江省三次暖区暴雨过程诊断分析

利用常规观测资料、FNL再分析资料、FY 2H静止卫星以及双偏振雷达数据，对发生在2020年5月25—26日、29—30日及6月2—3日浙江省的3次暴雨过程（简称“5〖DK〗·25”、“5〖DK〗·29”和“6〖DK〗·2”过程）进行了诊断分析，比较了3次暴雨的落区、强度、成因及云团等差异。结果表明：①3次暴雨均发生在高空槽前的低空切变线上，高空槽深浅、中尺度切变线位置、南部急流脉动强弱等因素是造成3次暴雨落区和强度差异的主要原因。②暴雨落区位于湿辐合带西侧，700 hPa湿〖WTHX〗Q〖WTBZ〗矢量散度场负值区对暴雨落区有较好的示踪作用。③3次暴雨过程均存在锋生作用和冷暖中心对，“5〖DK〗·25”过程中层锋生先于低层，有弱温度平流，为短历时强降雨，其降水效率低，“5〖DK〗·29”和“6〖DK〗·2”过程则有强冷暖平流，为长历时强降雨，降水效率高。④“5〖DK〗·25”过程暴雨云团尺度相对较小且生命史较短，降水稳定；“5〖DK〗·29”过程云体密实、云顶亮温低、回波质心高度高且偏向于混合性降水；“6〖DK〗·2”过程主要为α中尺度对流云团，冷云盖尺度大、存在柱状对流回波、回波质心高度高且偏向于对流性降水。     

“16·7”石家庄特大暴雨多源观测信息特征分析

利用风廓线雷达、地基GPS水汽、微波辐射计、多普勒天气雷达、卫星云图、闪电定位仪、地面加密自动站等多源观测资料,对“16〖DK〗·7”石家庄特大暴雨的演变特征进行分析,结果表明：①GPS水汽总量和微波辐射计水汽总量的高值阶段对应强降水阶段,水汽总量与降水强度成正相关。降水开始前水汽总量明显上升,突升到高值时间比降水开始时间提前5 h,水汽总量突增对降水开始时间有提示作用。②低层偏东风的厚度和强度与强降水呈正相关,低层风向转西北风预示强降水结束。低空急流出现时间比降水开始时间提前5 h,低空急流消散时间比降水结束时间偏早3 h,超过20 m〖DK〗·s-1的东风急流对强降水有一定指示作用。强降雨对应低空急流最低高度的下降和低层最大风速的增加,也就是对应低空急流指数和0～3 km垂直风切变的峰值区。③此过程以稳定性降水为主,仅在19日伴有弱闪电和雷暴出现。雷达回波和卫星云图表现为大范围层状云和积状云混合降水回波,回波质心低,列车效应明显,属于热带降水类型。〖JP2〗云顶亮温最低值-55 ℃,雷达反射率因子、垂直累积液态水含量和回波顶高最大值分别为55 dBz、15 kg〖DK〗·m-2和11 km,与降水量有明显相关;低层径向速度场对应明显的速度大值区或速度模糊。〖JP〗     

1990—2019年新疆不同等级风灾变化特征

风灾对新疆农牧业生产造成极大危害。本研究以风灾造成的倒塌房屋数、倒塌棚圈数、死亡人数、农作物受灾面积、损坏大棚数、牲畜死亡数作为6大灾情要素,运用比值权重和无量纲化线性求和方法构建表达风灾事件强弱的灾损指数,并采用百分位数法将风灾事件的强度划分为一般（1级）、较重（2级）、严重（3级）、特重（4级）4个等级。根据灾损指数和灾害等级,研究新疆风灾的时空变化特征。结果表明：新疆风灾集中于4—5月,南疆多于北疆,吐鲁番盆地和塔里木盆地北部是风灾的多发区和重发区;近30年风灾年出现次数呈显著的线性增加趋势,年灾损指数没有表现出线性增加或减少的变化趋势,其中1～4级风灾的年际变化具有明显的差异性;引发1～4级风灾的极大风速阈值分别为12.9、13.7、14.1、15.0 m〖DK〗·s-1;超过12.9 m〖DK〗·s-1极大风速出现日数逐年增多,加之农牧业生产快速发展,导致风灾年出现次数不断增加。     

黄河断流与El Ni(～n)o事件的遥相关

黄河断流事件的发生是人为因素与自然因素——人类生产活动用水量急增与天然径流量骤减共同作用的结果。自然因素作为天然背景具有不可低估的作用,在引起黄河断流的所有气候因子中,降水减少的贡献最显著,其次是蒸发增加的影响。当代黄河断流事件的发生和持续加重似与El Nin〖DD(Y-1.5mm〗~〖DD)〗o事件的频繁发生及其持续强劲有某种关联,本文即通过对黄河径流及其流域内的降水、蒸发、气温等方面气候因素与El Nin〖DD(Y-1.5mm〗~〖DD)〗o事件的遥相关作用进行分析,寻求导致黄河径流减少的可能原因,从而揭示黄河断流与El Nin〖DD(Y-1.5mm〗~〖DD)〗o事件的联系。结果表明,通常情况下,El Nin〖DD(Y-1.5mm〗~〖DD)〗o事件发生时,黄河流域年平均降水量减少10.35%,可造成黄河年径流减少12.95% (含有来自蒸发增加所造成的影响),约相当于减少73.45×108 m3的水量。随El Nin〖DD(Y-1.5mm〗~〖DD)〗o事件强度的加深,降水量与径流量均迅速递减,强El Nin〖DD(Y-1.5mm〗~〖DD)〗o事件黄河流域年平均降水量减少20.43%,黄河径流量减少25.59%（147.17×108m3）;1997年断流最严重时降水减少30.62%,径流骤减40.27%（229.96×108 m3 ）。可见El Nin〖DD(Y-1.5mm〗~〖DD)〗o事件对黄河断流所造成的影响是相当深刻的。     

夏季两次低槽冷锋型暴雨成因对比分析

利用常规观测资料和NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料,对对流层低层无低涡、无低空急流配置的低槽和冷锋影响下2004年7月29—30日后倾槽和2004年8月3—4日前倾槽两次暴雨过程的成因进行了对比分析,结果表明: 虽然两次过程对流层中低层形势非常相近,但在空间结构上却存在显著差异。后倾槽锋区向冷空气倾斜且成3段锋,其中,第1段锋在850 hPa以下,冷空气虽较弱,但对整个降水过程起抬升触发作用,暴雨区出现在该段锋移动方向的前沿,即地面辐合线呈气旋性弯曲的流线密集处;前倾槽锋区完整,湿斜压锋区向暖区倾斜,暴雨区出现在锋前1～2个纬距处,即地面辐合线右侧偏南气流密集带中。两次过程低层均有强的水汽输送,存在高温高湿区,925 hPa比湿均达15 g〖DK〗·kg-1以上,所不同的是,后倾槽暴雨区位于水汽通量大值区、等〖WTBX〗θe〖WTBZ〗密集线前沿及风场辐合明显的水汽辐合区内,而前倾槽暴雨区则位于水汽通量等值线密集带中的水汽辐合区、〖WTBX〗θe〖WTBZ〗暖舌的舌尖和风场辐合处,但更偏向暖空气一侧。此外,暴雨易发生在山区或海岸线等特殊地形抬升的区域。     

未来气候变化对东北玉米品种布局的影响

为探求未来气候变化对我国东北玉米品种布局的影响,基于玉米生产潜力和气候资源利用率,结合区域气候模式输出的2011—2099年RCP_4.5,RCP_8.5两种气候背景气象资料和1961—2010年我国东北地区91个气象站的观测数据,分析了未来气候变化情况下,东北玉米品种布局、生产潜力、气候资源利用率的时空变化。结果表明:未来东北地区玉米可种植边界北移东扩,南部为晚熟品种,新扩展区域以早熟品种为主,不能种植区域减少。未来玉米生产潜力为南高北低,增加速率均高于历史情景,水分适宜度最低,而历史情景下温度是胁迫玉米生产的关键因子。未来东北玉米对气候资源利用率整体下降,其中RCP8.5情景利用率最低。     

欧亚北部冬季增雪“影响”我国夏季气候异常的机理研究:欧洲冬季增雪的重要作用

在作者前期研究(穆松宁和周广庆, 2012)的基础之上, 本文主要利用了EOF分析和相关分析, 对欧亚北部冬季新增雪盖面积(Total Fresh Snow Extent, 记为T_FSE)与我国夏季气候异常之间"隔季相关"的机理进行了更进一步的探讨, 主要目的在于寻找T_FSE气候效应的冬季增雪面积关键区。结果表明, 虽然欧洲中纬冬季增雪面积(文中均以T_FSE-1表示)与我国夏季气候异常的关系不很显著, 但其变化维系了上述"隔季相关"的物理途径, 其变化对T_FSE的气候效应而言起关键作用, 但是, 亚洲中纬冬季增雪面积(文中均以T_FSE-2表示)的贡献尚不清楚;另外, 对T_FSE的气候效应而言, 起作用的实际上是欧亚中纬冬季增雪面积(文中均以T_FSE-1-2表示), 其不但与我国夏季气候异常具有更显著的"隔季相关", 而且这种"隔季相关"还具有和T_FSE非常相似的、但更为清晰的物理途径, 因此, 在气候预测的意义上, T_FSE-1-2可替代T_FSE。     

Attribution of Maize Yield Increase in China to Climate Change and Technological Advancement Between 1980 and 2010

Crop yields are affected by climate change and technological advancement. Objectively and quantitatively evaluating the attribution of crop yield change to climate change and technological advancement will ensure sustainable development of agriculture under climate change. In this study, daily climate variables obtained from 553 meteorological stations in China for the period 1961-2010, detailed observations of maize from 653 agricultural meteorological stations for the period 1981-2010, and results using an Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZ) model, are used to explore the attribution of maize (Zea mays L.) yield change to climate change and technological advancement. In the AEZ model, the climatic potential productivity is examined through three step-by-step levels: photosynthetic potential productivity, photosynthetic thermal potential productivity, and climatic potential productivity. The relative impacts of different climate variables on climatic potential productivity of maize from 1961 to 2010 in China are then evaluated. Combined with the observations of maize, the contributions of climate change and technological advancement to maize yield from 1981 to 2010 in China are separated. The results show that, from 1961 to 2010, climate change had a significant adverse impact on the climatic potential productivity of maize in China. Decreased radiation and increased temperature were the main factors leading to the decrease of climatic potential productivity. However, changes in precipitation had only a small effect. The maize yields of the 14 main planting provinces in China increased obviously over the past 30 years, which was opposite to the decreasing trends of climatic potential productivity. This suggests that technological advancement has offset the negative effects of climate change on maize yield. Technological advancement contributed to maize yield increases by 99.6%-141.6%, while climate change contribution was from-41.4% to 0.4%. In particular, the actual maize yields in Shandong, Henan, Jilin, and Inner Mongolia increased by 98.4, 90.4, 98.7, and 121.5 kg hm^-2 yr^-1 over the past 30 years, respectively. Correspondingly, the maize yields affected by technological advancement increased by 113.7, 97.9, 111.5, and 124.8 kg hm^-2 yr^-1, respectively. On the contrary, maize yields reduced markedly under climate change, with an average reduction of-9.0 kg hm^-2 yr^-1. Our findings highlight that agronomic technological advancement has contributed dominantly to maize yield increases in China in the past three decades.     

Temporal variation in summer monsoon intensity since 1873 and its influence on runoff in the drainage area between Hekouzhen and Longmen,Yellow River basin,China

Controlled by continental monsoon climate, runoff of the Yellow River shows large temporal variability. How runoff responds to the changing summer monsoon intensity is important both in theory and in water resources management. The earliest hydrological observations on the Yellow River started in 1919, and thus, runoff data are available only for the past 90 years. Using data of the summer monsoon intensity (SMI), the temporal variation of SMI since 1873 and the resultant variation in runoff are dealt with for the drainage area between Hekouzhen and Longmen, Yellow River basin. At the 128-year scale, the variation of SMI can be generalized as a trend of decreasing first, then increasing and then decreasing again. At the time scale of 50 years for which concurrent data are available, the temporal variations in both SMI and precipitation show some decreasing trend. At the time scale of 80 years for which concurrent data were available, the temporal variations in SMI and natural runoff also show a decreasing trend. For 5-year moving averages of these variables, the synchronous trend of variation is more obvious. This fact indicates that the variation in SMI results in the variations in precipitation and runoff in the study area. Based on data of SMI and natural runoff for the period from 1920 to 2000, a regression equation between the 5-year moving averages of SMI (SMI_5m) and natural runoff (Q _wn,5m) was established, which shows that 72% of the variation in Q _wn,5m can be explained by the variation in SMI_5m. Using this regression equation, Q _wn,5m for the period from 1873 to 1919 was reconstructed. At the 128-year scale, the natural runoff from the study area shows a trend of decreasing first, then increasing and then decreasing again, in response to the similar variation in the summer monsoon intensity.     

Evaluation of Haney-Type Surface ThermalBoundary Conditions Using a CoupledAtmosphere and Ocean Model

A coupled atmosphere-ocean model developed at the Institute for Space Studies at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (Russell et al., 1995) was used to verify the validity of Haney-type surface thermal boundary condition, which linearly connects net downward surface heat flux Q to air / sea temperature difference △T by a relaxation coefficient k. The model was initiated from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) atmospheric observations for 1 December 1977, and from the National Ocean Data Center (NODC) global climatological mean December temperature and salinity fields at 1° ×1° resolution. The time step is 7.5 minutes. We integrated the model for 450 days and obtained a complete model-generated global data set of daily mean downward net surface flux Q, surface air temperature TA,and sea surface temperature To. Then, we calculated the cross-correlation coefficients (CCC) between Q and △T. The ensemble mean CCC fields show (a) no correlation between Q and △T in the equatorial regions, and (b) evident correlation (CCC≥ 0.7) between Q and △T in the middle and high latitudes.Additionally, we did the variance analysis and found that when k= 120 W m-2K-1, the two standard deviations, σQ and σk△T, are quite close in the middle and high latitudes. These results agree quite well with a previous research (Chu et al., 1998) on analyzing the NCEP re-analyzed surface data, except that a smaller value of k (80 W m-2K-1) was found in the previous study.     

A new method for estimation of near surface specific humidity over global oceans

Summary A new methodology for deriving daily averages of near surface specific humidity (Q _a ) is developed. Remotely sensed parameters, total water vapor (W), boundary-layer water vapor (W _b ), and sea-surface temperature (SST) are used to derive Q _a . Genetic algorithm (GA) is used to find the empirical function relating the input (W, W _b , and SST) and output (Q _a ) parameters. The input data consist of 2 years (1999–2000) of daily W, W _b , from SSM/I (Special Sensor Microwave Imager), and SST data from AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer). COADS (Comprehensive Ocean Atmospheric Data Set) observations of Q _a are used to develop and evaluate the new methodology. The performance of the algorithm is measured with COADS observations, which are not used in the development phase. The global mean rms error for daily averages Q _a is 1.5 ± 0.40 g/kg. Slightly higher discrepancies between Q _a derived from the new method and COADS observations are found over the Northwestern Pacific, North Atlantic oceans and Arabian Sea. This method improves upon the humidity retrieval of Liu (1986), Schulz et al (1993), and Chou et al (1997).     

Measurements and estimations of photosynthetically active radiation in Beijing

The measurements of the photosynthetic photon flux density (Q_p) and other solar components have been in Beijing for 2-year period. The Q_p, broadband solar radiation (R_s) and the PAR fraction (Q_p / R_s) showed similar seasonal features that peaked in value during the Summer and reached their lowest value during the Winter. The PAR fraction ranged from 1.68 E M J^− 1 (Winter) to 1.98 E M J^− 1 (Summer) with an annual mean value of 1.83 E M J^− 1. The analysis of the hourly values also revealed a diurnal pattern, with higher values of Q_p and R_s being observed around noon. The PAR fraction increased from 1.78 to 1.89 μE J^− 1 (hourly values), as the sky conditions changed from clear to cloudy. The monthly mean hourly PAR fraction also revealed a diurnal variation, however, with lower values being observed around noon during most months. In November, the diurnal variations showed an opposite feature in comparison with other months. This is mainly attributed to the diurnal variations in the water vapor concentration.Two models were developed to estimate Q_p from R_s. The models consisted of atmospheric parameters that were found to cause substantial changes to the PAR fraction, such as sky clearness, brightness and path length. The estimated Q_p obtained via different equations was much closer to the observed values, with relative errors below 20% in Beijing. The Q_p and R_s data collected at three stations with featuring different climate types from within Beijing were used for verifying the transferability of the models. The correlation coefficients between the measured and estimated Q_p values decreased at these stations, and the relative error increased. This indicates that the estimation models need to be modified accordingly for the local climatic conditions.     

Sensitivity of evapotranspiration of cotton and sorghum in west Texas to changes in climate and CO2

Summary In regions such as west Texas where water is scarce, changes in the water balance may have a significant impact on agricultural production and management of water resources. We used the mechanistic soil-plant-atmosphere simulation model ENWATBAL to evaluate changes in soil water evaporation (E) and transpiration (T) in cotton and grain sorghum that may occur due to climate change and elevated CO₂ in west Texas. Climatic and plant factors were varied individually, and in combination, to determine their impact onE andT. Of the climatic factors,E was most sensitive to changes in vapor pressure, andT to changes in irradiance. Simulations suggest that if warming is accompanied by higher humidity, the impact of climate change may be minimal. However, if the climate becomes warmer and less humid,ET may increase substantially. Simulations also suggest that enhanced growth due to elevated CO₂ may have a greater impact onET than climatic change.With 9 Figures     

Measurement and investigation of chamber radical sources in the European Photoreactor (EUPHORE)

It is essential to quantify the background reactivity of smog-chambers, since this might be the major limitation of experiments carried out at low pollutant concentrations typical of the polluted atmosphere. Detailed investigation of three chamber experiments at zero-NO _x in the European Photoreactor (EUPHORE) were carried out by means of rate-of-production analysis and two uncertainty analysis tools: local uncertainty analysis and Monte Carlo simulations with Latin hypercube sampling. The chemical mechanism employed was that for methane plus the inorganic subset of the Master Chemical Mechanism (MCMv3.1). Newly installed instruments in EUPHORE allowed the measurement of nitrous acid and formaldehyde at sub-ppb concentrations with high sensitivity. The presence of HONO and HCHO during the experiments could be explained only by processes taking place on the FEP Teflon walls. The HONO production rate can be described by the empirical equation W(HONO)_EUPHORE ^dry = a × j _{NO 2}× exp (− T ₀/T) in the low relative humidity region (RH < 2%, a = 7.3×10²¹ cm⁻³, T ₀ = 8945K), and by the equation W(HONO)_EUPHORE ^humid = W(HONO)_EUPHORE ^dry+ j _{NO 2}× b × RH ^q in the higher relative humidity region (2% < RH < 15%, b = 5.8×10⁸ cm⁻³ and q = 0.36, and RH is the relative humidity in percentages). For HCHO the expression W(HCHO)_EUPHORE = c × j _{NO 2}exp (− T′₀/T) is applicable (c = 3.1×10¹⁷ cm⁻³ and T′₀ = 5686 K). In the 0–15% relative humidity range OH production from HONO generated at the wall is about a factor of two higher than that from the photolysis of 100 ppb ozone. Effect of added NO₂ was found to be consistent with the dark HONO formation rate coefficient of MCMv3.1.     

Evaluation of Agricultural Climatic Resource Utilization During Spring Maize Cultivation in Northeast China Under Climate Change

Agricultural climatic resources （such as light,temperature,and water） are environmental factors that affect crop productivity.Predicting the effects of climate change on agricultural climatic resource utilization can provide a theoretical basis for adapting agricultural practices and distributions of agricultural production.This study investigates these effects under the IPCC （Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change） scenario A1B using daily data from the high-resolution RegCM3 （0.25° ×0.25°） during 1951-2100.Model outputs are adjusted using corrections derived from daily observational data taken at 101 meteorological stations in Northeast China between 1971 and 2000.Agricultural climatic suitability theory is used to assess demand for agricultural climatic resources in Northeast China during the cultivation of spring maize.Three indices,i.e.,an average resource suitability index （Isr）,an average efficacy suitability index （Ise）,and an average resource utilization index （K）,are defined to quantitatively evaluate the effects of climate change on climatic resource utilization between 1951 and 2100.These indices change significantly in both temporal and spatial dimensions in Northeast China under global warming.All three indices are projected to decrease in Liaoning Province from 1951 to 2100,with particularly sharp declines in Isr,Ise,and K after 2030,2021,and 2011,respectively.In Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces,Isr is projected to increase slightly after 2011,while Ise increases slightly and K decreases slightly after 2030.The spatial maxima of all three indices are projected to shift northeastward.Overall,warming of the climate in Northeast China is expected to negatively impact spring maize production,especially in Liaoning Province.Spring maize cultivation will likely need to shift northward and expand eastward to make efficient use of future agricultural climatic resources.