江苏省土地利用变化及其驱动机理研究

基于土地利用系统综合研究,采用解析方法将土地利用系统分解为自然子系统、经济子系统和社会子系统,对江苏省土地利用变化过程与格局进行分析。研究表明,耕地资源总量呈递减趋势,但粮食生产能力呈递增趋势,并表现出明显的地区分异规律;虽然经济总量也呈递增趋势,但信息熵指数表明区域分异明显;最后提出区域土地利用变化的“多层推—拉驱动”模型。     

近10年来长江下游土地利用变化及其生态环境效应

基于TM卫星遥感数据,对长江下游地区1988~1998年10年来土地利用类型的数量和时空变化特征进行了研究。为表征长江下游土地利用及其变化的时空分异特征,以县级行政区为基本空间分析单元,利用土地利用程度变化模型以及土地利用类型变化强度指数分析了长江下游近10年来的土地利用程度及其变化的区域分异特征、各土地利用类型变化强度的区域分异特征;通过计算土地利用变化类型的重要值,分析了区域土地利用变化的空间趋向性。研究中还对农田的数量变化特征、耕地流失强度的区域分异,特别是土地利用变化的区域生态环境效应等问题进行了分析和探讨。     

20世纪90年代中国土地利用变化时空特征及其成因分析

在土地利用变化时空信息平台的支持下,本文对我国20世纪80年代末到90年代末的土地利用变化过程进行了全面分析,揭示了我国10年来土地利用变化的时空规律,分析了这些规律形成的主要政策、经济和自然成因。研究表明,20世纪90年代,全国耕地总面积呈北增南减、总量增加的趋势,增量主要来自对北方草地和林地的开垦。林业用地面积呈现总体减少的趋势,减少的林地主要分布于传统林区,南方水热充沛区造林效果明显。中国城乡建设用地整体上表现为持续扩张的态势。90年代后5年总体增速减缓,西部增速加快。20世纪90年代我国的土地利用变化表现出明显的时空差异,政策调控和经济驱动是导致土地利用变化及其时空差异的主要原因。据此,本文提出在今后的全国土地利用规划中,应充分考虑我国现代土地利用变化的区域分异规律。同时,在生态环境恢复与建设规划中也应强调自然地理地带的针对性,同时要改变传统的资源规划与管理思路,在基础设施日益完备的条件下,最大程度地发挥跨区域土地资源优化配置的综合优势     

中国土地覆盖动态变化幅度的区域分异规律

利用1983~1992年逐月的8 km空间分辨率NOAA/AVHRR归一化植被指数(NDVI)数字影象,建立中国土地覆盖动态变化幅度指数(D),研究了中国土地覆盖动态变化的区域分异规律。结果表明:西北内陆及青藏高原变化幅度较小,广大的东南部地区(东南、西南季风区)变化幅度较大。从东南到西北变化幅度呈递减趋势,且有明显地带状分布规律。对中国土地覆盖动态变化进行分区,分出9个一级区域,15个二级区域,表明中国土地覆盖动态变化的区域差异。     

地理加权回归在区域土地利用格局模拟中的应用——以常州市孟河镇为例

以江苏省常州市新北区孟河镇为研究区,在土地利用格局模拟的回归建模中考虑驱动因子对土地利用格局影响的空间不稳定性,实现基于地理加权的回归分析模型,并与基于全局最小二乘法(OLS)的Logistic回归模型进行比较。研究结果表明,运用地理加权回归(GWR)的建模方法,不但可以获得更好的拟合优度和更高的拟合准确率,而且可以获得各驱动因子对土地利用格局影响的空间分异特征。同时,研究结果也可以为孟河镇及其类似地区的土地利用规划决策提供科学依据。     

城市土地集约利用与生态利用灰色关联分析

采用灰色关联分析的方法分析我国内陆31个省会城市的土地集约利用与土地生态利用之间的关系,为城市土地集约与生态协同利用提供依据和支撑。结果表明:综合容积率,单位土地面积职工数,路网密度,人均城市建设用地,地均二、三产值,地均固定资产投入等,均与土地生态利用综合水平之间存在着密切关系,但密切程度不同;与31个省会城市相比,东中西部3个区域的城市土地集约与生态利用关联程度呈现出不同的特点。     

阿拉善地区土壤盐渍化的遥感反演及分布特征

土壤盐渍化是威胁干旱区土地的重要环境问题。利用遥感技术对土壤盐渍化进行动态监测,分析土壤盐度水平与空间分布,有利于掌握土壤盐渍化现状,为土地资源可持续利用提供理论依据。现有研究多在田间尺度,随着土壤环境问题涉及的范围越来越大,区域斑块信息的提取已无法满足宏观地模拟和展示整体土壤环境的空间分布。以阿拉善地区为例,结合遥感光谱指数与实测土壤盐分数据,运用偏最小二乘回归（PLSR）方法,构建区域尺度范围的土壤盐渍化反演模型,实现大面积地区土壤盐度的精准模拟和定量监测。结果表明,构建的模型验证精度达到0.8788,达到极显著水平,预测结果与实际情况相符,可以较准确地模拟研究区土壤盐渍化状况。受地形、气候、景观类型、农业活动以及土地管理等因素的综合影响,阿拉善地区约20%的区域土壤呈现出不同程度的盐渍化,其中黑河下游河岸带、雅布赖山西侧及贺兰山西侧冲积扇土壤盐渍化程度最为严重。本研究可为大面积区域土壤盐分状况的快速监测及遥感定量反演提供可行的方法,同时为该区域不同程度盐渍化土壤的治理和土地利用管理提供依据。     

重庆市耕地集约利用评价及空间分异研究

土地集约利用是国家确定的土地利用新要求,耕地集约利用是国家实现粮食和建设保障的条件。利用规范分析法、层次分析法和GIS空间分析法,构建了包括评价指标、评价方法的耕地集约利用评价体系,并运用该评价体系分析了重庆市耕地集约利用水平空间分布规律。结果显示,耕地集约利用受人均耕地面积、经济发展水平、劳动力投入等因素直接影响,在区域分异上表现为渝西片区低于渝东南片区、渝东北片区低于渝东南片区。针对重庆市耕地集约利用空间分异及变化规律,从树立耕地集约利用综合评判观念、认清耕地集约利用短板、优化耕地集约利用空间、挖掘耕地农业利用价值等方面提出对策,为农用地和其他地区耕地集约利用研究与管理提供科学依据和借鉴。     

区域分异理论刍议

在对区域分异理论的认识史及其现状进行简要分析的基础上,提出应重新重视对区域分异理论的基础性研究;通过对区域分异及区域分异规律概念的解析,提出了区域分异规律只指地带性分异的观点;进一步阐述了地带性规律的内涵,认为垂直带谱和水平带谱具有统一的水热基础和类型可比性,并将地带性带谱统一划分为水分型、热量型、水热型3种类型.     

基于CLUE_S模型的矿区土地利用变化情景模拟——以徐州市贾汪矿区为例

以徐州市贾汪矿区1986、1996、2006和2016年4期遥感影像为数据源,基于CLUE-S模型,在传统Logistics回归模型的基础上引入空间自相关因子形成Autologistic回归模型,选取政策、自然环境、社会经济和空间约束等因素,对贾汪矿区2016年土地利用空间分布格局进行模拟以检验精度。在此基础上对研究区2026年趋势发展、经济发展和生态保护3种情景下的土地利用空间分布格局进行了模拟。结果表明：1）Autologistic回归模型在土地利用情景模拟过程中能够更好地反映真实的土地利用格局;2）研究区2016－2026年不同情景下,建设用地在3种情景下均呈现明显的增加趋势,未利用地面积持续减少,其中经济发展情景下建设用的增幅最大,生态保护用地情景下建设用地增幅最小,在生态保护情景下,林地、耕地等生态用地受到保护,建设用地的扩展速度被抑制。 关键词：土地利用变化;CLUE-S模型;Autologistic回归模型;情景模拟;贾汪矿区     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book Reviewed in this article: Development and Environment in Peninsular Malaysia . S. Robert Aiken, Colin H. Leigh, Thomas R. Leinbach, Michael R. Moss. The Rural-Urban Fringe: Canadian Perspectives . Ken B. Beesley and Lorne H. Russwurm, eds. Women and Development . Lourdes Benería, ed. The Border that Joins: Mexican Migrants and U.S. Responsibility . Peter G. Brown and Henry Shue, eds. Cities of the World: World Regional Urban Development . Stanley D. Brunn and Jack L. Williams, eds. Time Resources, Society, and Ecology: On the Capacity for Human Interaction in Space and Time (Vol. I, Preindustrial Societies). Tommy Carlstein. Urban Geography . David Clark. Spanish City Planning in North America . Dora P. Crouch, Daniel J. Garr, and Axel I. Mundigo. Not On Our Street: Community Attitudes to Mental Health Care . M. J. Dear and S. M. Taylor Unequal growth: Urban and Regional Employment Change in the U.K. Stephen Fothergill and Graham Gudgin. Agricultural Land in an Urban Society . Owen J. Furuseth and John T. Pierce. The Petroleum Industry in Oil-Importing Developing Countries . Fariborz Ghadar. Historical Understanding in Geography, An Idealist Approach . Leonard Guelke. Regional Planning in Europe . R. Hudson and J. R. Lewis, eds. Remote Sensing for Resource Management . Chris J. Johannsen and James L. Sanders, eds. Geography and The State . R. J. Johnston. Texas Graveyards: a Cultural Legacy . Tlrry G. Jordan. The Politics of Location: An Introduction . Andrew Kirby. A Social Geography of the City . David Ley. Energy and the Future . Douglas MacLean and Peter Brown, eds. The Natural Environment of Newfoundland Past and Present . A. G. Macpherson and J. B. Macpherson, eds. Tourism: Economic, Physical and Social Impacts . Alister Mathieson and Geoffrey Wall. Railroads and Land Grant Policy: A Study in Government Intervention . Lloyd J. Mercer. Progress in Rural Geography . Michael Pacione, ed. Progress in Urban Geography . Michael Pacione, ed. Models of Spatial Inequality: Settlement Patterns in Historical Archaeology . Robert Paynter. Natural Hazard Risk Assessment and Public Policy, Anticipating the Unexpected . William J. Petak and Arthur A. Atkisson. The Nature of Geomorphology . Alistair F. Pitty. Regional Conflict and National Policy . Kent A. Price Women and Spatial Change: Learning Resources for Social Science Courses . Arlene C. Rengert and Janice J. Monk, eds. Urban and Regional Analysis for Development Planning . Richard Rhoda. Rivers: Form and Process in Alluvial Channels . Keith Richards. This Remarkable Continent: An Atlas of United States and Canadian Society and Culture . John F. Rooney, Jr., Wilbur Zelinsky, and Dean R. Louder, gen. eds. The Origins of Open-Field Agriculture . Trevor Rowley, ed. Residential Location Determinants of the Older Population . Gundars Rudzitis. Borderland Sourcebook: A Guide to the Literature on Northern Mexico and the American Southwest . Ellwyn R. Stoddard, Richard L. Nostrand, and Jonathan P. West, eds. Arctic and Antarctic . David Sugden. Tall Timbers Ecology and Management Conference, February 22–24, 1979, Proceedings No. 16 . Graphic Communication and Design in Contemporary Cartography (Progress in Contemporary Cartography , Vol. II). D. R. Fraser Taylor, ed. Living with Energy Shortfall: A Future for American Towns and Cities . Jon Van Til. The United States: Habitation of Hope . J. Wreford Watson. Air Photo Interpretation for Archaeologists . D. R. Wilson. Urban and Rural Change in West Germany . Trevor Wild, ed. Population and Resources . Harry Robinson.     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book Reviewed in this article: Geography and the Third World. International Seminar, 14–18 May 1980, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia . Ishmail Ahmad and Jamaluddin Md Jahi, eds. The Growth Dilemma: Residents' Views and Local Population Change in the United States . Mark Baldassare. Sport and Place: A Geography of Sport in England, Scotland & Wales . John Bale. The Deindustrialization of America: Plant Closings, Community Abandonment, and the Dismantling of Basic Industry . Barry Bluestone and Bennett Harrison. Selected Essays 1963–1975: Carl O. Sauer . Bob Callahen, ed. Housing and Planning in the Countryside . G. Clark. Conflict, Politics and the Urban Scene . Kevin R. Cox and R. J. Johnston, eds. Thematic Maps: Their Design and Production . David J. Cuff and Mark T. Mattson. Wine: A Geographic Appreciation . Harm Jan de Blij. USSR in Maps . J. C. Dewdney. Political Geography: A Contemporary Perspective . Ramesh D. Dikshit. Rethinking Human Adaptation . Rada Dyson-Hudson and Michael A. Little, eds. Sacred Sands: The Struggle for Community in the indiana Dunes . J. Ronald Engel. Geography of the Biosphere . A. Furley and Walter W. Newey. Disaster and Reconstruction . Robert Geipel. Glasgow: The Making of a City . Andrew Gibb. Design for Arid Regions . Giden S. Golany, ed. Urbanization and Cancer Mortality: The United States Experience, 1950–1975 . Michael R. Greenberg. Geology in the Nineteenth Century: Changing Views of a Changing World . Mott T. Greene. Colonización y Destrucción de Bosques en Panamá . Stanley Heckadon Moreno and Alberto McKay, eds. Urban Geography: A First Approach . David T. Herbert and Colin J. Thomas. The Visual and Spatial Structure of Landscapes . Tadahiko Higuchi. Climate from Tree Rings . M. K. Hughes, P. M. Kelly, J. R. Pilcher, and V. C. LaMarche, Jr., eds. The structure of Nineteenth Century Cities . James H. Johnson and Colin G. Pooley, eds. The American Planner: Biographies and Recollections . Donald A. Krueckeberg, ed. Urban Land Policy For the 1980s, the Message for State and Local Government . George Lefcoe, ed. Regional Planning: Evolution, Crisis and Prospects . Gill C. Lim, ed. Relevance and Ethics In Geography . Bruce Mitchell and Dianne Draper. China: The Geography of Development and Modernization . Clifton W. Pannell and Laurence J. C. MA. The Urban Retailing System . Robert B. Potter. Hants. Nonconventional Energy Resources . Philip R. Pryde. Caribbean Migrants: Environment and Human Survival on St. Kitts and Nevis . Bonham C. Richardson. Population and Resources . Harry Robinson. East Los Angeles: History of A Barrio . Ricardo Romo. Integrated Impact Assessment . Frederick A. Rossini and Alan L. Porter, eds. Environmental Aesthetics: Essays in Interpretation . Barry Sadler and Allen Carlson, eds. Earthwatch . Charles Sheffield. Field Techniques and Research Methods in Geography . Robert H. Stoddard. Haiti: Land of Poverty . Robert J. Tata. Weathering and Erosion: Sources and Methods in Geography . Stephen T. Trudgill. Once Beneath the Forest. Prehistoric Terracing in the Río Bec Region of the Maya Lowlands . B. L. Turner, II. The Historical Geography of Scotland since 1707 . David Turnock.     

PRODUCTIVITY OF AMERICAN PH.D.-GRANTING DEPARTMENTS OF GEOGRAPHY

Reviews of geographic software in this article:

DEMO-GRAPHICS: WORLD POPULATIONS AND PROJECTIONS.

ESP

GAUSS.

CEMODEL S. Damus

LIMDEP. William H. Greene

MICROSTAT 4.1

OTIS

PCIPS. (Personal Computer Image Processing System). H.J. Meyers and R. Bernstein.

REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF TIME SERIES (RATS)

SPSS/PC+

URBAN DATA MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE (UDMS)     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book Reviewed in this article: Rabat: Urban Apartheid in Morocco . Janet Abu -Lughod . Marketplaces in a Developing Country: The Case of Western Nigeria . Isaac Ayinde Adalemo . Farming Development and Space: A World Agricultural Geography . Bernd Andreae . Section and Party: A Political Geography of American Presidential Elections, from Andrew Jackson to Ronald Reagan . J. Clark Archer and Peter J. Taylor . Women and Space: Ground Rules and Social Maps . Shirley Ardener , ed. European Progress in Spatial Analysis . R. J. Bennett , ed. The Origins of Academic Geography in the United States . Brian W. Blouet Geographic Perspectives on Global Problems . Ronald Reed Boyce . Seasonal Dimensions to Rural Poverty . Robert Chambers , Richard Longhurst and Arnold Pacey eds. The New Nationalism and the Use of Common Spaces: Issues in Marine Pollution and the Exploitation of Antarctica . Jonathan I. Charney , ed. Communications Tomorrow: The Coming of the Information Society . Edward Cornish , ed. The Design of Suburbia . Arthur Edwards . Explorer on the Northern Plains: Lieutenant Gouverneur K. Warren's Preliminary Report of Explorations in Nebraska and Dakota in the Years 1855–56–57. With an Introduction by Frank N. Schubert . The Changing Climate: Responses of the Natural Flora and Fauna . Michael J. Ford . Essentials of Physical Geography . Robert E. Gabler , Robert J. Sager , Sheila Brazier , and Daniel L. Wise. The Road to Jaramillo . William Glen . Valued Environments . John R. Gold and Jacquelin Burgess , eds. Proximity and Preference: Problems in the Multidimensional Analysis of Large Data Sets . Reginald G. Golledge and John N. Rayner , eds. A Search for Common Ground . Peter Gould and Gunnar Olsson , eds. Geography: Its History and Concepts . Arild Holt -Jensen . A Population Geography . Huw R. Jones . The Human Mosaic: A Thematic Introduction to Cultural Geography, 3rd ed. Terry G. Jordan and Lester Rowntree . Urban Social Geography: An Introduction . Paul Knox . The Anatomy of Job Loss: The How, Why and Where of Employment Decline . Doreen Massey and Richard Meegan . The Information Society as Post-Industial Society . Yoneji Masuda . Map Librarianship, 2nd ed. Harold Nichols . India: Cultural Patterns and Processes . Allen G. Noble and Ashok K. Dutt , eds. The God that Limps: Science and Technology in the Eighties . Colin Norman . Geography: An Introductory Perspective . Robert E. Norris , Keith D. Harries and John D. Vitek . The Politics of Technology Assessment . David M. O'Brien and Donald A. Marchand . Ethnic Segregation in Cities . Ceri Peach , Vaughan Robinson and Susan Smith , eds. Churches and Church Membership in the United States, 1980 . Bernard Quinn , Herman Anderson , Martin Bradley , Paul Goetting and Peggy Shriver . Energy in Australia: Politics and Economics . Hugh Saddler . Development from Above or Below? The Dialectics of Regional Planning in Developing Countries . Walter B. Stóuhr and D. R. Fraser Taylor , eds. Human Impact on the Ecosystem . Joy Tivy and Greg O'Hare . Plants and People: Vegetation Change in North America . Thomas R. Vale . The Mapmakers: The Story of the Great Pioneers in Cartography from Antiquity to the Space Age . John Noble Wilford .     

Deserts and Aeolian Desertification in China: Book review and some thoughts

Desertification is a global phenomenon that affects about two billion people. It occurs in arid zones where the annual precipitation is below 400 mm, partic- ularly in the marginal areas of the world＇s largest deserts. It is a result of water and wind erosion, over- grazing, global warm-ing, improper soil cultivation, and increased pressure ot population growth, and it causes degradation of soil and natural and agricultural vegetation. The direct result is less food for people and livestock, which influences pop- ulation and animal husbandry fluctuations. Despite ef- forts to combat and reduce desertification, the affected areas are annually increasing.     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book Reviewed in this article: The Rice Economy of Asia . Randolph Barker and Robert W. Herdt with Beth Rose. Using Microcomputers: A Guidebook for Writers, Teachers, and Researchers in the Social Sciences . Blaine A. Erie—the Lake that Survived . Noel M. Burns. Geology and Society . Donald R. Coates. Caves and Karst of Kentucky . Percy H. Dougherty, ed. Altered Harvest: Agriculture, Genetics, and the Fate of the World's Food Supply . Jack Doyle. The Middle East and North Africa, A Political Geography . Alasdair Drysdale and Gerald H. Blake. Clamor at the Gates. The New American Immigration . Nathan Glazer, ed. Development and the Landowner: An analysis of the British experience . Robin Goodchild and Richard Munton. Discovering Landscape in England and Wales . Andrew Goudie and Rita Gardner. The Modern Plantation in the Third World . Edgar Graham and Ingrid Floering. Social Relations and Spatial Structures . Derek Gregory and John Urry, eds. The World Food Problem 1950–1980 . David Grigg. Costa Rica: A Geographical Interpretation in Historical Perspective . Carolyn Hall. The Urbanization of Capital: Studies in the History and Theory of Capitalist Urbanization . David Harvey Consciousness and the Urban Experience: Studies in the History and Theory of Capitalist Urbanization . David Harvey. Reviving Main Street . Deryck Holdsworth, ed. Rural Roads and Poverty Alleviation . John Howe and Peter Richards, eds. Uneven Development in Southern Europe: Studies of Accumulation, Class, Migration and the State . Ray Hudson and Jim Lewis, eds. Karst Geomorphology . J. N. Jennings. The Geomorphology of North-west England . R. H. Johnson, ed. Climate Impact Assessment: Studies of the Interaction of Climate and Society . Robert Kates, Jesse Ausubel, Mimi Berberian, eds. Public Service Provision and Urban Development . Andrew Kirby, Paul Knox, and Steven Pinch, ed. State and Market: The Politics of the Public and the Private . Jan-Erik Lane, ed. Living Cities . Twentieth Century Fund Task Force on Urban Preservation Policies. World Climatic Systems . John G. Lockwood. Urban Ethnicity in the United States. New Immigrants and Old Minorities . Lionel Maldonaldo and Joan Moore, eds. Culture and Conservation: The Human Dimension in Environmental Planning . Jeffrey A. McNeely and David Pitt, eds. The Andean Past. Land, Societies, and Conflicts . Magnus Mörner. Gaia: An Atlas of Planet Management . Norman Myers, ed. Progress in Industrial Geography . Michael Pacione, ed. Progress in Political Geography . Michael Pacione, ed. Rivers and Landscape . Geoff Petts and Ian Foster. Urbanization and Planning in the 3rd World: Spatial Perceptions and Public Participation . Robert B. Potter. One Island, Two Nations? A Political Geographical Analysis of the National Conflict in Ireland . D. G. Pringle. Circulation in Third World Countries . R. Mansell Prothero and Murray Chapman. The Ozarks Outdoors: A Guide for Fishermen, Hunters, and Tourists . Milton D. Rafferty. Suburban Burglary: A Time and a Place for Everything . George Rengert and John Wasilchick. Geomorphology and Soils . K.S. Richards, R.R. Arnett, and S. Ellis, eds. The Homes and Homeless of Post-War Britain . Frederick Shaw. Indochinese Refugees in America . Paul J. Strand and Woodrow Jones, Jr. Wild Horses and Sacred Cows . Richard Symanski. Forever Wild: Environmental Aesthetics and the Adirondack Forest Preserve . Philip G. Terrie. The Regional Economic Impact of Technological Change . A.T. Thwaites and R.P. Oakey, eds. The Good Life . Yi-Fu Tuan.     

REVIEWS OF GEOGRAPHIC SOFTWARE

Reviews of geographic software in this article: DEMO-GRAPHICS: WORLD POPULATIONS AND PROJECTIONS. ESP GAUSS. CEMODEL S. Damus LIMDEP. William H. Greene MICROSTAT 4.1 OTIS PCIPS. (Personal Computer Image Processing System) . H.J. Meyers and R. Bernstein. REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF TIME SERIES (RATS) SPSS/PC+ URBAN DATA MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE (UDMS)     

Guidelines to Authors

1. Aims and scope
Sciences in Cold and Arid Regions （SCAR） is a bimonthly journal that publishes in English the latest research achievements in processes and the pattems of the Earth surface system in cold and arid regions. Researches in cold regions emphasize particularly on the cold-region-characterized physical,