南极冰盖GLIMMER模式移动边界试验研究

利用欧洲冰盖比较计划(EISMINT)的移动边界条件EISMINT-1测试集,通过三维有限差分南极冰盖GLIMMER模式,采用浅冰近似计算了一个定义在方形冰盖积分区域的流场特征量,研究了冰盖在大尺度长时间序列条件下对气候变化的反馈,考察了稳定态下冰盖演化的周期性行为.试验表明:GLIMMER模式在EISMINT-1移动边界条件下可以模拟出气候强迫下的冰盖演化趋势,在长时间尺度上可以刻画出气候变化的反馈机制.同时,对南极冰盖数值模拟面临的问题、GLIMMER模式以及EISMINT冰盖比较计划的内容和框架做了说明,对EISMINT比较计划目前的发展状况和遇到的问题做了分析,并且对GLIMMER模式下一步的研究方向做了一些探讨.     

Capabilities and limitations of numerical ice sheet models: a discussion for Earth-scientists and modelers

The simulation of dynamically coupled ice sheet, ice stream, and ice shelf-systems poses a challenge to most numerical ice sheet models. Here we review present ice sheet model limitations targeting a broader audience within Earth Sciences, also those with no specific background in numerical modeling, in order to facilitate cross-disciplinary communication between especially paleoglaciologists, marine and terrestrial geologists, and numerical modelers. The ‘zero order’ (Shallow Ice Approximation, SIA)-, ‘higher order’-, and ‘full Stokes’ ice sheet models are described conceptually and complemented by an outline of their derivations. We demonstrate that higher order models are required to simulate coupled ice sheet-ice shelf and ice sheet-ice stream systems, in particular if the results are aimed to complement spatial ice flow reconstructions based on higher resolution geological and geophysical data. The zero order SIA model limitations in capturing ice stream behavior are here illustrated by conceptual simulations of a glaciation on Svalbard. The limitations are obvious from the equations comprising a zero order model. However, under certain circumstances, simulation results may falsely give the impression that ice streams indeed are simulated with a zero order SIA model.     

中国极地冰盖数值模拟研究进展北大核心CSCD

冰盖数值模拟是一种基于多源观测数据,通过构建并求解冰流动力学方程组,理解冰流运动物理机制以及诊断和预估其演化过程的方法,目前已被广泛应用于冰盖变化研究。本文简要介绍了极地冰盖数值模拟方法,归纳综述了近十余年我国学者在极地冰盖数值模拟方面的研究进展,厘清我国在冰盖数值模拟领域遇到的瓶颈和关键问题。阐述了如何与我国的极地冰盖科考优势区域深度结合,协同多源强化观测和数值模拟,研发和改进冰盖模式,提高冰盖模拟能力,对定量估算极地冰盖的物质平衡及其对未来海平面上升的影响做出实质贡献。通过逐步发展冰盖模式的研究能力,有望将来在冰盖关键动力过程和机制的科学认识上有所突破。     

Evidence for a large surface ablation zone in central East Antarctica during the last Ice Age

Internal isochronous ice sheet layers, recorded by airborne ice-penetrating radar, were measured along an ice flowline across a large (>1 km high) subglacial hill in the foreground of the Transantarctic Mountains. The layers, dated through an existing stratigraphic link with the Vostok ice core, converge with the ice surface as ice flows over the hill without noticeable change to their separation with each other or the ice base. A two-dimensional ice flow model that calculates isochrons and particle flowpaths and accounts for ice flow over the hill under steady-state conditions requires net ablation (via sublimation) over the stoss face for the predicted isochrons to match the measured internal layers. Satellite remote sensing data show no sign of exposed ancient ice at this site, however. Given the lack of exposed glacial ice, surface balance conditions must have changed recently from the net ablation that is predicted at this site for the last 85,000 years to accumulation.     

Reconstructing the Last Glacial Maximum ice sheet in the Weddell Sea embayment,Antarctica, using numerical modelling constrained by field evidence

The Weddell Sea Embayment (WSE) sector of the Antarctic ice sheet has been suggested as a potential source for a period of rapid sea-level rise – Meltwater Pulse 1a, a 20 m rise in ～500 years. Previous modelling attempts have predicted an extensive grounding line advance in the WSE, to the continental shelf break, leading to a large equivalent sea-level contribution for the sector. A range of recent field evidence suggests that the ice sheet elevation change in the WSE at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is less than previously thought. This paper describes and discusses an ice flow modelling derived reconstruction of the LGM ice sheet in the WSE, constrained by the recent field evidence. The ice flow model reconstructions suggest that an ice sheet consistent with the field evidence does not support grounding line advance to the continental shelf break. A range of modelled ice sheet surfaces are instead produced, with different grounding line locations derived from a novel grounding line advance scheme. The ice sheet reconstructions which best fit the field constraints lead to a range of equivalent eustatic sea-level estimates between approximately 1.4 and 3 m for this sector. This paper describes the modelling procedure in detail, considers the assumptions and limitations associated with the modelling approach, and how the uncertainty may impact on the eustatic sea-level equivalent results for the WSE.     

冰湖溃决洪水的二维水动力学数值模拟

为分析冰湖溃决洪水过程,建立了一个二维非恒定流数值模型,可以定量的开展冰湖溃决洪水预测.数值模型的基本控制方程采用二维浅水水流方程,数值方法采用可以捕捉激波的WAF TVD二阶精度格式,并用非界面追踪的方法处理干湿边界.通过理想情况下一维解析解的验证和二维复杂地形情况的数值试验,证明数值模型具有较好的精度和可靠性,并且可以适应复杂地形.将数值模型应用于一个典型的冰湖溃决事件,定量地预估了该冰湖溃决洪水过程,结果表明:水流流速很高,床面剪切应力很大,可能诱发活跃的泥沙运动,形成泥石流灾害.     

Analytical estimate of the critical global-warming level for the Antarctic ice sheet mass gain-to-loss transition

We suggested a relatively simple model describing changes in the total balance of the ice sheet mass due to global climate change. Taking into account the basic mechanisms behind change in the ice sheet mass and their relations with temperature, we obtained a nonlinear analytical dependence of the ice sheet thickness on the global near-surface temperature. The behavior of the ice sheet can be split into six regimes. Implementation of some regime or another depends essentially on the initial (present-day) value of the mass balance and the sensitivity parameters of precipitation and ice melt to the temperature. Based on this model, we obtained an analytical estimate of the critical level in global warming, in excess of which the regime of the Antarctic ice sheet gain due to snow accumulation changes to sheet degradation due to more intense growth in ice melting.     

Growth rate of the Laurentide Ice Sheet and sea level lowering (with emphasis on the 115,000 BP sea level low)

A physically plausible three-dimensional numerical ice flow model is used to examine the rate at which the Laurentide Ice Sheet could spread and thicken using as input likely values for the rate of fall of snowline and the amount of net mass balance over the growing ice sheet. This provides then both a test of the hypothesis of “instantaneous glacierization” and of the suggested rapid fall of world sea level to between ?20 and ?70 m below present at 115,000 BP. Two experiments are described: The first terminated after 10,050 years of model run with ice sheets centered over Labrador-Ungava and Baffin Island with a total volume of 3.0 × 10⁶ km³ of ice, whereas the second was completed after 10,000 years and resulted in a significantly larger ice sheet (still with two main centers) with a volume of 7.78 × 10⁶ km³ of ice. This latter figure is equivalent to the mass required to lower world sea level by 19.4 m. Our results indicate that large ice sheets can develop in about 10,000 years under optimum conditions.     

Response of a marine ice sheet to changes at the grounding line

A numerical model was designed to study the stability of a marine ice sheet, and used to do some basic experiments. The ice-shelf/ice-sheet interaction enters through the flow law in which the longitudinal stress is also taken into account. Instead of applying the model to some (measured) profile and showing that this is unstable (as is common practice in other studies), an attempt is made to simulate a whole cycle of growth and retreat of a marine ice sheet, although none of the model sheets is particularly sensitive to changes in environmental conditions. The question as to what might happen to the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in the near future when a climatic warming can be expecied as a result of the CO₂ effect, seems to be open for discussion again. From the results presented in this paper one can infer that a collapse, caused by increased melting on the ice shelves, is not very likely.     

Reconstructing the last Irish Ice Sheet 1: changing flow geometries and ice flow dynamics deciphered from the glacial landform record

The glacial geomorphological record provides an effective means to reconstruct former ice sheets at ice sheet scale. In this paper we document our approach and methods for synthesising and interpreting a glacial landform record for its palaeo-ice flow information, applied to landforms of Ireland. New, countrywide glacial geomorphological maps of Ireland comprising >39,000 glacial landforms are interpreted for the spatial, glaciodynamic and relative chronological information they reveal. Seventy one ‘flowsets’ comprising glacial lineations, and 19 ribbed moraine flowsets are identified based on the spatial properties of these landforms, yielding information on palaeo-ice flow geometry. Flowset cross-cutting is prevalent and reveals a highly complex flow geometry; major ice divide migrations are interpreted with commensurate changes in the flow configuration of the ice sheet. Landform superimposition is the key to deciphering the chronology of such changes, and documenting superimposition relationships yields a relative ‘age-stack’ of all Irish flowsets. We use and develop existing templates for interpreting the glaciodynamic context of each flowset – its palaeo-glaciology. Landform patterns consistent with interior ice sheet flow, ice stream flow, and with time-transgressive bedform generation behind a retreating margin, under a thinning ice sheet, and under migrating palaeo-flowlines are each identified. Fast ice flow is found to have evacuated ice from central and northern Ireland into Donegal Bay, and across County Clare towards the south-west. Ice-marginal landform assemblages form a coherent system across southern Ireland marking stages of ice sheet retreat. Time-transgressive, ‘smudged’ landform imprints are particularly abundant; in several ice sheet sectors ice flow geometry was rapidly varying at timescales close to the timescale of bedform generation. The methods and approach we document herein could be useful for interpreting other ice sheet histories. The flowsets and their palaeo-glaciological significance that we derive for Ireland provide a regional framework and context for interpreting results from local scale fieldwork, provide major flow events for testing numerical ice sheet models, and underpin a data-driven reconstruction of the Irish Ice Sheet that we present in an accompanying paper – Part 2.     

Interaction of multiple ice streams on the Malin Shelf during deglaciation of the last British–Irish Ice Sheet

The Malin Shelf, off north-west Ireland, was an important zone of confluence for marine-based ice streams of the former British–Irish Ice Sheet (BIIS). Legacy geophysical datasets are used to construct models of the seismic character, relative age and distribution of shelf sediments and landforms. Buried and surface landform assemblages provide evidence that during deglaciation of the Late Devensian BIIS, the region was occupied not by a single Hebrides Ice Stream as previously proposed, but by four discrete ice streams, here referred to as the Sea of the Hebrides (SHIS), Inner Hebrides, North Channel and Tory Island ice streams. Our observations of stratigraphic relationships between the deposits of these ice streams indicate physical interactions between them during shelf deglaciation. We interpret an initial dominant cross-shelf flow along the SHIS impeding cross-shelf ice flow from other ice sheet sectors. Following withdrawal of the SHIS grounding line from the shelf edge to mid-shelf bathymetric highs during deglaciation, a reconfiguration of ice sheet flow paths allowed the expansion of smaller cross-shelf ice streams draining central Scotland and north-western Ireland. This internal dynamic behaviour provides a possible physical analogue for time-transgressive flow patterns reported for outlets draining the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.     

Influence of glacier hydrology on the dynamics of a large Quaternary ice sheet

The influence of glacier hydrology on the time-dependent morphology and flow behaviour of the late Weichselian Scandinavian ice sheet is explored using a simple one-dimensional ice sheet model. The model is driven by orbitally induced radiation variations, ice-albedo feedback and eustatic sea-level change. The influence of hydrology is most marked during deglaciation and on the southern side of the ice sheet, where a marginal zone of rapid sliding, thin ice and low surface slopes develops. Such a zone is absent when hydrology is omitted from the model, and its formation results in earlier and more rapid deglaciation than occurs in the no-hydrology model. The final advance to the glacial maximum position results from an increase in the rate of basal sliding as climate warms after 23000 yr BP. Channelised subglacial drainage develops only episodically, and is associated with relatively low meltwater discharges and high hydraulic gradients. The predominance of iceberg calving as an ablation mechanism on the northern side of the ice sheet restricts the occurrence of surface melting. Lack of meltwater penetration to the glacier bed in this area means that ice flow is predominantly by internal deformation and the ice sheet adopts a classical parabolic surface profile.     

Constraints on the Late Weichselian ice sheet over the Barents Sea from observations of raised shorelines

Direct evidence for Late Weichselian grounded glacier ice over extensive areas of the Barents Sea is based largely on indirect observations, including elevations of old shorelines on Svalbard and arguments of isostatic rebound. Such isostatic models are discussed here for two cases representing maximum and minimum ice-sheet reconstructions. In the former model the ice extends over the Kara Sea, whereas in the latter the ice is limited to the Barents Sea and island archipelagos. Comparisons of predictions with observations from a number of areas, including Spitsbergen, Nordaustlandet, Edgeøya, Kong Karls Land, Franz Josef Land, Novaya Zemlya and Finnmark, support arguments for the existence of a large ice sheet over the region at the time of the last glacial maximum. This ice sheet is likely to have had the following characteristics, conclusions that are independent of assumptions made about the Earth's rheological parameters. (i) The maximum thickness of this ice was about 1500–2000 m with the centre of the load occurring to the south and east of Kong Karls Land. (ii) The ice sheet extended out to the western edge of the continental shelf and its maximum thickness over western Spitsbergen was about 800 m. (iii) To the north of Svalberg and Frans Josef Land the ice sheet extended out to the northern shelf edge. (iv) Retreat of the grounded ice across the southern Barents Sea occurred relatively early such that this region was largely ice free by about 15,000 BP. (v) By 12,000 BP the grounded ice had retreated to the northern archipelagos and was largely gone by 10,000 BP. (vi) The ice sheet may have extended to the Kara Sea but ice thicknesses were only a fraction of those proposed in those reconstructions where the maximum ice thickness is centered on Novaya Zemlya. Models for the palaeobathymetry for the Barents Sea at the time of the last glacial maximum indicate that large parts of the Barents Sea were either very shallow or above sea level, providing the opportunity for ice growth on the emerged plateaux, as well as on the islands, but only towards the end of the period of Fennoscandian ice sheet build-up.     

Reconstructing the last Irish Ice Sheet 2: a geomorphologically-driven model of ice sheet growth,retreat and dynamics

The ice sheet that once covered Ireland has a long history of investigation. Much prior work focussed on localised evidence-based reconstructions and ice-marginal dynamics and chronologies, with less attention paid to an ice sheet wide view of the first order properties of the ice sheet: centres of mass, ice divide structure, ice flow geometry and behaviour and changes thereof. In this paper we focus on the latter aspect and use our new, countrywide glacial geomorphological mapping of the Irish landscape (>39 000 landforms), and our analysis of the palaeo-glaciological significance of observed landform assemblages (article Part 1), to build an ice sheet reconstruction yielding these fundamental ice sheet properties. We present a seven stage model of ice sheet evolution, from initiation to demise, in the form of palaeo-geographic maps. An early incursion of ice from Scotland likely coalesced with local ice caps and spread in a south-westerly direction 200 km across Ireland. A semi-independent Irish Ice Sheet was then established during ice sheet growth, with a branching ice divide structure whose main axis migrated up to 140 km from the west coast towards the east. Ice stream systems converging on Donegal Bay in the west and funnelling through the North Channel and Irish Sea Basin in the east emerge as major flow components of the maximum stages of glaciation. Ice cover is reconstructed as extending to the continental shelf break. The Irish Ice Sheet became autonomous (i.e. separate from the British Ice Sheet) during deglaciation and fragmented into multiple ice masses, each decaying towards the west. Final sites of demise were likely over the mountains of Donegal, Leitrim and Connemara. Patterns of growth and decay of the ice sheet are shown to be radically different: asynchronous and asymmetric in both spatial and temporal domains. We implicate collapse of the ice stream system in the North Channel – Irish Sea Basin in driving such asymmetry, since rapid collapse would sever the ties between the British and Irish Ice Sheets and drive flow configuration changes in response. Enhanced calving and flow acceleration in response to rising relative sea level is speculated to have undermined the integrity of the ice stream system, precipitating its collapse and driving the reconstructed pattern of ice sheet evolution.     

Numerical approximation of water–air two-phase flow by the mixed finite element method

A new model for two-phase flow of water and air in soil is presented. This leads to a system of two mass balance equations and two equations representing conservation of momentum of fluid and gas, respectively. This paper is concerned with the verification of this model for the special case of a rigid soil skeleton by computational experiments. Its numerical treatment is based on the Raviart–Thomas mixed finite element method combined with an implicit Euler time discretization. The feasibility of the method is illustrated for some test examples of one- and two-dimensional two-phase flow problems.     

弯道取水口河冰运动特性及导冰筏优化设置

采用DynaRICE二维河冰模型模拟弯道及其取水口附近的水面冰运动和堆积过程,探讨弯道取水口导冰筏的优化设计。该模型耦合了水动力方程和冰动力方程,分别采用有限元法和光滑粒子流体动力学法对水动力方程和冰动力方程进行求解。模拟得到弯道取水口处水流水力特性、不同角度导冰筏下河冰运动规律及其受力情况。结果表明河冰靠弯道凹岸一侧运动,并在取水口附近及其下游堆积,横向环流对河冰运动影响可忽略,取水口上游设置角度和长度合理的导冰筏可有效阻止河冰进入引水渠。但是,下游也需设置导冰筏来防止河冰在取水口下游堆积及向上游延伸到取水口。     

Debris structures in basal ice exposed at the margin of the Greenland ice sheet

The basal ice of many glaciers contains debris structures that reflect subglacial processes. Presented here is an unusually clear photograph of ice and debris in the lowest 2 m of the basal layer at the margin of the Greenland ice sheet. The photograph shows ice-debris relationships and deformation structures that reflect entrainment processes and flow history.     

Analytical study of freezing behavior of a cavity in thermo-poro-elastic medium

The goal of this paper is to present an analytical solution to have a first insight of the impact of ice formation on the surrounding porous rock on underground cavities like reservoir, pipes, tunnels or wellbores. Among the other analytical solutions found in the literature on this topic, the originality of this work resides in the rigorous theoretical framework of poromechanics, which considers the coupling between liquid water and ice crystal under thermodynamic equilibrium. Liquid water transport, thermal conduction, and elastic properties of the phases are also considered. Two analytical solutions are presented, based on a linearization of the system of governing equations. The first one deals with a spherical cavity within an infinite porous medium leading to an exact analytical solution. It allows validating the Stehfest’s algorithm on the numerical inversion of Laplace Transform, used in the second analytical solution, which considers a cylindrical excavation. The validity of this solution is assessed by comparing its results to that issued from a numerical resolution of the nonlinear system of equations. The analytical solution is then ultimately used to identify the influence of key parameters like the thermal/hydraulic conductivities, the amount of ice formed and the thermal dilatation coefficients on the mechanical response of a cylindrical cavity submitted to an internal frost.     

Relative sea‐level changes,glacial isostatic modelling and ice‐sheet reconstructions from the British Isles since the Last Glacial Maximum

While contributing <1 m equivalent eustatic sea‐level rise the British Isles ice sheet produced glacio‐isostatic rebound in northern Britain of similar magnitude to eustatic sea‐level change, or global meltwater influx, over the last 18 000 years. The resulting spatially variable relative sea‐level changes combine with observations from far‐field locations to produce a rigorous test for quantitative models of glacial isostatic adjustment, local ice‐sheet history and global meltwater influx. After a review of the attributes of relative sea‐level observations significant for constraining large‐scale models of the isostatic adjustment process we summarise long records of relative sea‐level change from the British Isles and far‐field locations. We give an overview of different global theoretical models of the isostatic adjustment process before presenting intercomparisons of observed and predicted relative sea levels at sites in the British Isles and far‐field for a range of Earth and ice model parameters in order to demonstrate model sensitivity and the resolving power available from using evidence from the British Isles. For the first time we show a good degree of fit between relative sea‐level observations and predictions that are based upon global Earth and ice model parameters, independently derived from analysis of far‐field data, with a terrain‐corrected model of the British Isles ice sheet that includes extensive glaciation of the North Sea and western continental shelf, that does not assume isostatic equilibrium at the Last Glacial Maximum and keeps to trimline constraints of ice surface elevation. We do not attempt to identify a unique solution for the model lithosphere thickness parameter or the local‐scale detail of the ice model in order to provide a fit for all sites, but argue that the next stage should be to incorporate an ice‐sheet model that is based on quantitative, glaciological model simulations. We hope that this paper will stimulate this debate and help to integrate research in glacial geomorphology, glaciology, sea‐level change, Earth rheology and quantitative modelling. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.