未来甲烷排放增加对平流层水汽和全球臭氧的影响

利用一个耦合的大气化学-气候模式(WACCM3)研究了地表甲烷排放增加对平流层水汽和全球臭氧变化的影响.结果表明,如果地表甲烷的排放量在2000年的基础上增加50%(达到政府间气候变化专门委员会A1B排放情景中2050年的值),平流层水汽体积分数将平均增加约0.8×10^-6.南半球平流层甲烷转化为水汽的效率比北半球高.在北半球平流层中,1mol甲烷分子可以转化为约1.63mol的水汽分子,而在南半球1mol甲烷分子大概可以转化为约1.82mol的水汽分子.甲烷排放增加50%将使全球中低纬度地区以及北半球高纬度地区的臭氧柱总量增加1%-3%,使南半球高纬度地区臭氧柱总量增加近8%,而秋季(南半球春季)南极地区臭氧柱总量增加幅度可高达20%,南极臭氧的这种显着增加主要是由于甲烷增加造成的化学反馈所致.在北半球中高纬度地区,甲烷增加引起的臭氧变化主要与甲烷氧化导致的水汽增加有关.研究还表明,未来甲烷排放增加对臭氧的恢复作用其实与溴化物排放的减少一样重要.     

青藏高原气温变化趋势与同纬度带其他地区的差异以及臭氧的可能作用

利用台站探空观测资料和卫星观测资料,分析了1979—2002年青藏高原上空温度的变化趋势。结果表明：高原地区上空平流层低层和对流层上层的温度与对流层中低层具有反相变化趋势。平流层低层和对流层上层降温,温度出现降低趋势,降温幅度无论是年平均还是季节平均都比全球平均降温幅度更大。高原上空对流层中低层增温,温度显示出增加的趋势,并且比同纬度中国东部非高原地区有更强的增温趋势。对1979—2002年卫星臭氧资料的分析表明,青藏高原上空臭氧总量在每个季节都呈现出明显的下降趋势,并且比同纬度带其他地区下降得更快。由于青藏高原上空臭氧有更大幅度的减少,造成高原平流层对太阳紫外辐射吸收比其他地区更少,使进入对流层的辐射更多,从而导致高原上空平流层低层和对流层上层降温比其他地区更强,而对流层中低层增温更大。因此,高原上空比其他地区更大幅度的臭氧总量减少可能是造成青藏高原上空与同纬度其他地区温度变化趋势差异的一个重要原因。     

Trends of Lower-to Mid-Stratospheric Water Vapor Simulated in Chemistry-Climate Models

Using the outputs from 16 chemistry-climate models(CCMs), the trends of lower- to mid-stratospheric water vapor(WV) during the period 1980–2005 were studied. Comparisons were made between the CCM results and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) Interim Reanalysis(ERA-Interim).The results of most of the CCMs, and those based on ERA-Interim, showed the trends of lower- to mid-stratospheric WV during the period 1980–2005 to be positive, with the extent of the trend increasing with altitude. The trend of lower- to mid-stratospheric WV in the ensemble mean of the CCMs was 0.03 ppmv per decade,which was about twice as large as that based on ERA-Interim. The authors also used a state-of-the-art general circulation model to evaluate the impacts of greenhouse gas(GHG) concentration increases and ozone depletion on stratospheric WV. The simulation results showed that the increases of lower- to mid-stratospheric WV affected by the combined effects of GHG and ozone changes happened mainly via warming of the tropopause and enhancement of the Brewer-Dobson circulation(BDC), with the former being the greater contributor.GHG increase led to a higher and warmer tropopause with stronger BDC, which in turn led to more WV entering the stratosphere; while ozone depletion led to a higher and cooler tropopause, which caused the decreases of lowerto mid-stratospheric WV, despite also causing stronger BDC.     

The Effect of Super Volcanic Eruptions on Ozone Depletion in a Chemistry–Climate Model

With the gradual yet unequivocal phasing out of ozone depleting substances(ODSs), the environmental crisis caused by the discovery of an ozone hole over the Antarctic has lessened in severity and a promising recovery of the ozone layer is predicted in this century. However, strong volcanic activity can also cause ozone depletion that might be severe enough to threaten the existence of life on Earth. In this study, a transport model and a coupled chemistry–climate model were used to simulate the impacts of super volcanoes on ozone depletion. The volcanic eruptions in the experiments were the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption and a 100 × Pinatubo size eruption. The results show that the percentage of global mean total column ozone depletion in the 2050 RCP8.5 100 × Pinatubo scenario is approximately 6% compared to two years before the eruption and 6.4% in tropics. An identical simulation, 100 × Pinatubo eruption only with natural source ODSs, produces an ozone depletion of 2.5% compared to two years before the eruption, and with 4.4% loss in the tropics. Based on the model results,the reduced ODSs and stratospheric cooling lighten the ozone depletion after super volcanic eruption.     

Extremely low temperatures in the stratosphore and very low total ozone amount above northern and central Europe during winter 1989

On 1 February 1989, -83.5°C was recorded in 27.8 hPa over Hohenpeißenberg, the lowest temperature in the 22-year series. This was measured together with a very low total ozone amount of 266 DU. This may be compared with nearly twice this amount on 27 February 1989. The situation was very unusual: following an extremely cold winter in the Arctic stratosphere, the stratospheric cold pole was located over southern Scandinavia on 1 February in a very southerly position. The analyzed temperatures of -92 °C in 30 hPa were also unusual. Even though the low ozone amounts over Hohenpeißenberg were probably dynamically caused, an additional very small ozone decrease due to heterogeneous reactions in altitudes from 23–28 km, where the temperatures lie below -80 °C, cannot be ruled out. Extinction measurements by the orbitting SAGE II instrument indeed show polar stratospheric clouds over Europe near 50° N during the period 31 January–2 February. Also, polar stratospheric clouds were previously observed over Kiruna at similarly low temperatures and signs of a corresponding small ozone decrease were noted there.     

1997年和2011年春季北极臭氧损耗事件的对比分析

采用SLIMCAT化学传输模式以及再分析资料,对比分析了1997和2011年北极地区平流层臭氧异常偏低事件及其成因。结果表明,1997和2011年3月北极地区大气臭氧柱总量（TCO）异常值都达到了约-80 DU,并且在30-200 hPa（中下平流层）区域的大气臭氧柱总量异常约占整层大气臭氧柱总量异常的80%。分析表明发生在这两年的极端臭氧偏低事件均可能是由于上一年冬季的拉尼娜事件导致上传的行星波减少,使得北极极涡加强,平流层温度异常偏低,生成了更多极地云,引起更强的臭氧化学损耗导致的。对比这两年的大气臭氧柱总量变化发现,2011年的柱总量减少得更快。2011年北极地区上对流层下平流层（UTLS）区域臭氧下降要明显强于1997年,其主要原因应该是2010-2011冬季的拉尼娜活动更强,北太平洋海温更高,进一步减弱阿留申低压和平流层波活动。这导致2011年极涡温度异常偏低更强烈,形成了更多的极地平流层云甚至出现了第二类极地平流层云,最终加速该年春季的臭氧化学损耗引起的。     

Effects of meridional sea surface temperature changes on stratospheric temperature and circulation

Using a state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model,we analyzed the atmospheric responses to increases in sea surface temperature （SST）.The results showed that increases in SST and the SST meridional gradient could intensify the subtropical westerly jets and significantly weaken the northern polar vortex.In the model runs,global uniform SST increases produced a more significant impact on the southern stratosphere than the northern stratosphere,while SST gradient increases produced a more significant impact on the northern stratosphere.The asymmetric responses of the northern and southern polar stratosphere to SST meridional gradient changes were found to be mainly due to different wave properties and transmissions in the northern and southern atmosphere.Although SST increases may give rise to stronger waves,the results showed that the effect of SST increases on the vertical propagation of tropospheric waves into the stratosphere will vary with height and latitude and be sensitive to SST meridional gradient changes.Both uniform and non-uniform SST increases accelerated the large-scale Brewer-Dobson circulation （BDC）,but the gradient increases of SST between 60°S and 60°N resulted in younger mean age-of-air in the stratosphere and a larger increase in tropical upwelling,with a much higher tropopause than from a global uniform 1.0 K SST increase.     

北半球冬季平流层温度和Brewer-Dobson环流对11 a太阳循环的响应

采用北京气候中心大气辐射模式(BCC-RAD)、日本气象厅JRA-55月平均再分析资料,研究了北半球冬季低纬度平流层上、下两个温度异常区对太阳周期的响应及其机制。结果表明,太阳活动偏强年,低纬度的上平流层温度暖异常是由臭氧短波加热异常引起的,它在中纬度的上平流层激发出异常强西风,阻碍行星波正常上传,由波破碎驱动的Brewer-Dobson环流也减弱,该环流上升支减弱的动力加热作用导致了低纬度的下平流层暖异常。     

两个模式对平流层温度模拟的比较与分析

利用第5代欧洲中心—汉堡大气环流模式ECHAM5全球大气环流谱模式和中国气象局自主研发的GRAPES全球同化与预报模式分别对2010年1月1—6日全球平流层温度进行了模拟分析,结合相应时段的全球最终分析资料FNL,对比评估了两个模式对平流层温度的模拟效果,并对较为显著的误差现象进行了分析与探讨。结果表明:对于50 h Pa高度上的温度,ECHAM5模式模拟的温度与FNL资料的结果在研究时段内随时间的变化很小,而GRAPES模式模拟的结果在南半球随时间变化显著偏暖。进一步将ECHAM5和GRAPES模式所用的温度初始场进行对比研究表明,两者的分布形态非常形似,尤其是在南半球地区,大部分差值接近于零。将ECHAM5采用的全球臭氧廓线应用于GRAPES模式中,对比发现南半球平流层异常增温的现象仍然存在。因此,温度初始场和臭氧廓线的选取不是造成GRAPES模式模拟出现南半球平流层异常增温的主要原因,需要对GRAPES模式中其他动力及物理过程或参数选取做进一步的深入分析,以弄清其在平流层温度模拟中出现较大偏差的原因。     

一个诊断极区平流层温度变化的近似方程的检验及应用

根据一个诊断极区平流层温度变化的近似方程及其滑动累加计算方案,采用1980—2000年的MERRA-2再分析日资料计算了北半球极区低平流层100 hPa逐月的温度增量项、动力加热项和非绝热加热项,以及各项的线性趋势。结果表明,各月温度增量项与累积的动力和非绝热加热之和在气候平均的年循环意义上接近平衡,而且它们的趋势也近似平衡。进一步通过多元回归,得到了动力和非绝热加热作用对当前月温度趋势的分别贡献,动力作用是北极低平流层冬季温度趋势的主导因素并且在冬季内不一致,而非绝热作用在其他季节是主导因素。     

深对流云向平流层的水汽垂直输送问题研究进展

水汽是一种比CO₂温室效应更强的温室气体,在平流层中为光化学反应提供氢氧自由基,凝结成冰晶后还能为臭氧的消耗提供非均相化学反应界面,从而加速臭氧的消耗,因而对气候有重要影响.深对流云对水汽的垂直输送是平流层水汽的重要来源之一,因此研究深对流云向平流层的水汽输送可以为研究气候变化提供参考.回顾了近年来关于深对流云向平流层的水汽垂直输送问题的研究进展,包括水汽垂直输送到平流层的证据、穿透性深对流云的识别方法、水汽被深对流云垂直输送到平流层的机理以及穿透性深对流云对平流层湿度作用的影响因子4个方面,并进行了小结和展望.     

Intercomparison of stratospheric water vapor profiles obtained during the Balloon Intercomparison Campaign

The Balloon Intercomparison Campaign (BIC) was set up to intercompare remote sensing measurements of a number of compounds other than water vapor; however, water vapor has strong absorption features throughout the infrared and mm wave regions of the spectrum. Therefore many of the investigators involved in BIC have absorption or emission features due to water vapor in the data they obtained during the balloon flights made under the campaign. These features have been used by the investigators to determine the stratospheric water vapor profiles which are compared in this paper. The profiles allow comparison of a wide range of remote sensing techniques involving both emission and absorption in the mid-infrared and emission techniques in the far infrared.     

超级单体向平流层输送水汽机制的数值模拟

为了揭示深对流云直接向平流层输送水汽的物理机制,利用WRF中尺度模式的理想个例运行方式对CCOPE(Cooperative Convective Precipitation Experiment)试验期间的一次超级单体进行了数值模拟。选用Thompson云微物理过程方案设置一系列初始云滴数浓度(N_c)进行模拟试验后发现,N_c=175 cm~(-3)情形下模拟云的最大垂直风速与实测结果最为接近,并且模拟出了超级单体。因此,本文利用该模拟结果分析了超级单体向平流层输送水汽的机制。1 min一次的输出结果表明:冻干脱水机制与本次所模拟出的平流层加湿没有直接的关系,超级单体向平流层输送水汽的主要机制可能为湍流输送机制,而升华加湿机制的作用很小。这是由于超级单体云上部的冰晶大部分被消耗而形成雪,因此被输送到平流层的主要是雪这种落速较大粒子,这种粒子不易被向上输送但又容易降落,因此升华所形成的水汽量相比湍流输送的水汽量小很多。湍流造成的水汽输送通量密度的量级约为10~(-9)kg·m~2·s~(-1)。     

Simulation of the Effect of Water-vapor Increase on Temperature in the Stratosphere

To analyze the mechanism by which water vapor increase leads to cooling in the stratosphere, the effects of water-vapor increases on temperature in the stratosphere were simulated using the two-dimensional, interactive chemical dynamical radiative model (SOCRATES) of NCAR. The results indicate that increases in stratospheric water vapor lead to stratospheric cooling, with the extent of cooling increasing with height, and that cooling in the middle stratosphere is stronger in Arctic regions. Analysis of the radiation process showed that infrared radiative cooling by water vapor is a pivotal factor in middle-lower stratospheric cooling. However, in the upper stratosphere (above 45 km), infrared radiation is not a factor in cooling; there, cooling is caused by the decreased solar radiative heating rate resulting from ozone decrease due to increased stratospheric water vapor. Dynamical cooling is important in the middle-upper stratosphere, and dynamical feedback to temperature change is more distinct in the Northern Hemisphere middle-high latitudes than in other regions and signiffcantly affects temperature and ozone in winter over Arctic regions. Increasing stratospheric water vapor will strengthen ozone depletion through the chemical process. However, ozone will increase in the middle stratosphere. The change in ozone due to increasing water vapor has an important effect on the stratospheric temperature change.     

Simulation and causes of eastern Antarctica surface cooling related to ozone depletion during austral summer in FGOALS-s2

Two parallel sets of numerical experiments （an ozone-hole simulation and a non-ozone-hole simulation） were performed to investigate the effect of ozone depletion on surface temperature change using the second spectral version of the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model （FGOALS-s2）, focusing on the eastern Antarctica （EA） continent in austral summer. First, we evaluated the ability of the model to simulate the EA surface cooling, and found the model can successfully reproduce the cooling trend of the EA surface, as well as the circulation change circling the South Pole in the past 30 years. Second, we compared the two experiments and discovered that the ozone depletion causes the cooling trend and strengthens the circumpolar westerly flow. We further investigated the causes of the EA surface cooling associated with the ozone hole and found two major contributors. The first is the ozone-hole direct radiation effect （DRE） upon the surface that happens because the decrease of the downward longwave （LW） radiation overcomes the increase of the downward shortwave （SW） radiation under clear sky. The second is the cloud radiation effect （CRE） induced by ozone depletion, which happens because the decreased downward SW radiation overcomes the increased downward LW radiation in the case of increased cloud. Although the CRE is theoretically opposite to the DRE, their final net effect makes comparable contributions to the EA surface cooling. Compared with the surface radiation budget, the surface heat flux budgets have a much smaller contribution. We additionally note that the CRE is basically ascribed to the circulation change.     

2019-2020冬季北半球超强极涡事件

2019-2020冬季北极平流层极涡异常并且持续的偏强,偏冷.利用NCEP再数据和OMI臭氧数据,本文分析了此次强极涡事件中平流层极涡的动力场演变及其对地面暖冬天气和臭氧低值的影响.此次强极涡的形成是由于上传行星波不活跃.持续的强极涡使得2020年春季的最后增温出现时间偏晚.平流层正NAM指数向下传播到地面,与地面AO...     

基于HYSPLIT模式的济南机场一次暴雨过程的水汽输送特征分析

利用NCEP再分析资料,结合HYSPLIT轨迹模式对 2018年6月25日发生在济南遥墙国际机场的一次大暴雨过程的水汽条件及输送过程进行分析。结果表明：此次大暴雨的水汽输送通道主要有3支,一支是源自对流层中层的西北气流输送,另一支是西太平洋上副热带高压边缘东南气流输送,第三支是南海上空向北的气流输送,三支通道中,西太平洋通道和南海通道对暴雨的水汽贡献最大,分别为46%和42%,来自西北通道的水汽输送相对较少,它对暴雨的水汽贡献仅为12%;进一步的分析表明,在850 hPa以下的对流层底部,来自西太平洋通道的水汽输送占据主导地位,而在700 hPa以上的对流层中层,则是来自南海通道的水汽输送占据主导地位。     

GPS定位与水汽反演中对流层干延迟的订正研究

根据美国Shreveport地区及中国徐州地区2006年的气象探空资料计算了GPS测量中的大气干延迟,将其作为真值与目前常用的普适模型计算的延迟值进行对比,结果表明,目前常用的几种普适模型在美国Shreveport地区的改正效果要明显好于中国徐州地区,直接反映出普适模型更适合北美地区.利用徐州地区2000-2006年的探空数据计算了大气干延迟值,在此基础上,根据地面气象要素建立了徐州地区大气干延迟的局地订正模型.分析表明,局地订正模型的改正效果好于普适模型.     

基于再分析资料的西南区域近50 a空中水资源的气候特征

利用1961—2012 年NCEP/ NCAR 的再分析月平均资料,分析了中国西南区域(四川、重庆、云南、贵州、广西大部分地区、西藏东部)水汽总量和水汽输送的气候特征。结果表明：西南区域水汽总量近50 a 来呈整体减少趋势;水汽含量在850—700 hPa 之间最为丰富;西南区域东湿西干,重庆、贵州、广西、四川东部水汽总量相对丰富;影响西南区域全年水汽量的有四个输送通道,春季水汽主要来源于孟加拉湾和偏西气流,夏季主要受到孟加拉湾和印度洋季风影响,秋季水汽主要来源于西太平洋,冬季则主要来源于偏西风和西太平洋;西南区域全年主要为水汽汇合区（除云南大部分地区以外）,常年有两个水汽辐合中心,一个在西藏与四川交接处（青藏高原东南侧）,一个在贵州及其附近地区;而云南上空主要为水汽辐散,仅夏季部分地区为水汽汇合区。