Variability of planetary waves as a signature of possible climatic changes

The long-term variability of stationary and traveling planetary waves in the lower stratosphere has been investigated using the data of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. The results obtained show that during the last decades winter-mean amplitude of the stationary planetary wave with zonal wave number 1 (SPW1) increases at the higher middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. It has been suggested that the observed increase in the SPW1 amplitude should be accompanied by the growth in the magnitude of the stratospheric vacillations. The analysis of the SPW1 behavior in the NCEP/NCAR data set supports this suggestion and shows a noticeable increase with time in the SPW1 intra-seasonal variability. The amplitudes of the long-period normal atmospheric modes, the so-called 5-, 10- and 16-day waves, diminish. It is supposed that one of the possible reasons for this decrease can be a growth of radiative damping rate caused, for instance, by the increase of CO₂. To investigate a possible climatic change of the middle atmosphere dynamics caused by observed changes in the tropospheric temperature, two sets of runs (using zonally averaged temperature distributions in the troposphere typical for January 1960 and 2000) with the middle and upper atmosphere model (MUAM) have been performed. The results obtained show that on average the calculated amplitude of the SPW1 in the stratosphere increased in 2000 and there is also an increase of its intra-seasonal variability conditioned by nonlinear interaction with the mean flow. This increase in the amplitudes of stratospheric vacillations during the last four decades allows us to suggest that stratospheric dynamics becomes more stochastic.     

Simultaneous observations of the 2-day wave at London (43°N, 81°W) and Saskatoon (52°N, 107°W) near 91 km altitude during the two years of 1993 and 1994

Simultaneous observations are valuable in providing further insights into the character of the quasi 2-day wave. In this study we investigate the period and amplitude for the quasi 2-day wave near 91 km using MF radars at London and Saskatoon, Canada, and in addition look at possible values of the zonal wave number. The results of the present study bring out certain new aspects of the quasi 2-day wave at mid-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. In particular we show that the period of the quasi 2-day wave determined from our study (specially at large amplitudes) is smaller (46-47 h) than the 51-52 h period often suggested by other Northern Hemisphere results, and that the periods also showed variability as a function of time. We also draw attention to the annual variability, and especially highlight the occurrence of the wave in non-summer months. Our observations show significant wave correlation between the London and Saskatoon sites during time intervals of strong 2-day wave activity. These results suggest that the 2-day waves of 1993/4 are westward propagating waves of zonal wave number 3, although sometimes the zonal wave number 5 is also indicated (specially at large amplitudes). Our study also contributes additional mid-latitude geographical data which should aid in developing a better picture of the quasi 2-day wave.     

Variations in zonal mean and planetary wave properties of the stratosphere and links with the troposphere

Zonal mean data and amplitudes and phases of planetary zonal waves were derived from daily hemispheric maps for tropospheric and stratospheric levels, for the four winters 1975–76 to 1978–79. Important year-to-year fluctuation in zonal means and wave activity are described, most notable of which are the changes from 1975–76 to 1976–77. Comparison of the relative strengths of the stratospheric and tropospheric jet streams shows a strong negative correlation (–0.8) between monthly mean zonal stratospheric winds (at 10 mb, 65°N) and zonal tropospheric winds (at 200 mb, 32.5°N, in the jet core) and a positive correlation (+0.7) between the stratospheric 10 mb winds and the tropospheric 200 mb winds at 65°N. Parameters correlated were the departures from the climatological mean zonal winds. The structure of correlation between wave amplitudes in the same wave number (1, 2) at different altitudes and between wave numbers 1 and 2 is investigated. We find a high correlation (+0.93) between wave 1 in the stratosphere (10 mb height) and wave 2 (height) in the troposphere at 65°N; but only a weak correlation (+0.2) between wave 1 amplitudes in the stratosphere and troposphere. These results suggest the possible importance of wave-wave interactions in processes linking the stratosphere and troposphere. The wave correlations presented here are based on comparisons of monthly means of daily amplitudes; the correlation structure in individual wave developments may differ, in view of the likelihood of altitudinal lags in wave amplification.     

Evidence for nonlinear coupling of planetary waves and tides in the lower thermosphere over Bulgaria

Analyses of hourly values of zonal and meridional wind near 95 km observed by meteor radar at Yambol (42.5°N, 26.6°E) during January 1991–June 1992 indicate the presence of planetary waves with prevailing periods of 1.5–2.5, 4–6, 9–10 and 16–18 days. About 20% of the whole power of atmospheric motions is connected with these waves, so they play an important role in the dynamics of the mesosphere-lower thermosphere (MLT) region. By dynamic spectral analysis applied to the hourly neutral wind and to the calculated hourly values of tidal amplitudes it has been demonstrated that there is considerable modulation of tidal amplitudes by planetary waves in the neutral wind, as this process is better expressed in the semidiurnal tides. The nonlinear interaction between tides and planetary waves is studied by bispectral analysis. The results of these analyses indicate again that the nonlinear interactions between semidiurnal tides and planetary waves with periods 2–20 days are stronger than those of the diurnal tides and planetary waves. A peculiar feature of dynamics in the MLT region above Bulgaria is the presence of strong oscillations with periods of 20 and 30 h, which indicate significant nonlinear coupling between them.     

The 16-day planetary wave in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere

A meteor radar located at Sheffield in the UK has been used to measure wind oscillations with periods in the range 10–28 days in the mesosphere/lower-thermosphere region at 53.5°N, 3.9°W from January 1990 to August 1994. The data reveal a motion field in which wave activity occurs over a range of frequencies and in episodes generally lasting for less than two months. A seasonal cycle is apparent in which the largest observed amplitudes are as high as 14 ms⁻¹ and are observed from January to mid-April. A minimum in activity occurs in late June to early July. A second, smaller, maximum follows in late summer/autumn where amplitudes reach up to 7–10 ms⁻¹. Considerable interannual variability is apparent but wave activity is observed in the summers of all the years examined, albeit at very small amplitudes near mid summer. This behaviour suggests that the equatorial winds in the mesopause region do not completely prevent inter-hemispheric ducting of the wave from the winter hemisphere, or that it is generated in situ.     

Intradiurnal wind variations observed in the lower thermosphere over the South Pole

The first meteor radar measurements of meridional winds in the lower thermosphere (about 95 ± 5 km), along four azimuth directions: 0°, 90°E, 180° and 90°W; approximately 2° from the geographic South Pole were made during two observational campaigns: January 19, 1995-January 26, 1996, and November 21, 1996-January 27, 1997. Herein we report analyses of the measurement results, obtained during the first campaign, which cover the whole one-year period, with particular emphasis on the transient nature and seasonal behavior of the main parameters of the intradiurnal wind oscillations. To analyze the data, two complementary methods are used: the well-known periodogram (FFT) technique and the S-transform technique. The most characteristic periods of the intradiurnal oscillations are found to be rather uniformly spread between about 7 h and 12 h. All of these oscillations are westward-propagating with zonal wave number s = 1 and their usual duration is confined to several periods. During the austral winter season the oscillations with periods less than 12 h are the most intensive, while during summer season the 12-h oscillations dominate. Lamb waves and internal-gravity wave propagation, non-linear interaction of the short-period tides, excitation in situ of the short period waves may be considered as possible processes which are responsible for intradiurnal wind oscillations in the lower thermosphere over South Pole.     

Hemispheric simulation of the Asian summer monsoon

A three-level, -plane, filtered model is used to simulate the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon. A time-averaged initial state, devoid of sub-planetary scale waves, is integrated through 30 days on a 5° latitude-longitude grid. Day 25 through day 30 integrations are then repeated on a 2.5° grid. The planetary-scale waves are forced by time-independent, spatially varying diabatic heating. Energy is extracted via internal and surface frictional processes. Orography is excluded to simplify synoptic-scale energy sources.During integration the model energy first increases, but stabilizes near day 10. Subsequent flow patterns closely resemble the hemisphere summer monsoon. Climatological features remain quasi-stationary. At 200 mb high pressure dominates the land area, large-scale troughs are found over the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, the easterly jet forms south of Asia, and subtropical jets develop in the westerlies. At 800 mb subtropical highs dominate the oceans and the monsoon trough develops over the Asian land mass. The planetary scales at all levels develop a realistic cellular structure from the passage of transient synoptic-scale features, e.g., a baroclinic cyclone track develops near 55°N and westward propagating waves form in the easterlies.Barotropic redistribution of kinetic energy is examined over a low-latitude zonal strip using a Fourier wave-space. In contrast to higher latitudes where the zonal flow and both longer and shorter waves are fed by barotropic energy redistribution from the baroclinically unstable wavelengths, the low-latitude waves have a planetary-scale kinetic energy source. Wave numbers 1 and 2 maintain both the zonal flow and all shorter scales via barotropic transfers. Transient and standing wave processes are examined individually and in combination.Wave energy accumulates at wave numbers 7 and 8 at 200 mb and at wave number 11 in the lower troposphere. The 800-mb waves are thermally indirect and in the mean they give energy to the zonal flow. These characteristics agree with atmospheric observation. The energy source for these waves is the three wave barotropic transfer. The implications of examining barotropic processes in a Fourier wave-space, vice the more common approach of separating the flow into a mean plus a deviation are discussed.     

Evidence of global-scale waves with zonal wave number zero in the stratosphere

Coherency spectra derived from time series of stratospheric quantities indicate oscillations in the frequency range below 0.5 d^–1 which are correlated on a global scale. Satellite observations of total ozone and stratospheric radiance (BUV and SIRS, Nimbus4, April–November 1970) have been used to derive phase relationships of such oscillations. As an example, an oscillation of total ozone with a period of 7.5 d and zonal wave number zero is analyzed in detail. The basic assumption is made and tested, that the oscillation reflects stratospheric planetary waves as obtained from Laplace's tidal equations. The observed latitudinal phase shifts for the total ozone oscillation are in good agreement with theoretical predictions. It is concluded from the observations of ozone and radiance that mainly divergence effects related to global-scale waves are responsible for the 7.5 d oscillations of total ozone at high and middle latitudes and at the equator whereas in the latitude range 10°S–20°S predominantly temperature effects are important. Meridional wind amplitudes of some 10 cm/s are sufficient to explain the high and mid-latitude ozone oscillations. At low latitudes vertical wind amplitudes of about 0.2 mm/s corresponding to height changes of the ozone layer of roughly ±20 m are obtained.     

Observations of 7-d planetary waves with MLT radars and the UARS-HRDI instrument

Long period variations in the mesosphere wind have been observed for some time by ground-based radars. These planetary scale disturbances have reoccurring periods at or near 5–7, 10, and 16 days and at times dominate the wind field at mesospheric heights. Recently, due to the continuous operation of several of the MLT radars and the availability of measurements from the UARS satellite, it has been possible to compare observations during periods of large planetary wave activity. Wind measurements from four MLT radars; the meteor radars at Durham, NH (43°N,71°W) and Sheffield, UK (53°N,2°W) and MF radars at Urbana, IL (40°N,88°W) and Saskatoon, Canada (52°N,107°W) were compared with the HRDI measurements during intervals when 7-d planetary waves were present. Wind data from the HRDI instrument on UARS has been processed to show the latitudinal structure and the seasonal variation of the planetary scale wind variation. The phases and amplitudes of the waves as determined by both the satellite and the radars are in good agreement. The ground-based measurements show large modulation of tides by these long period components, and also show comparable responses of these low frequency components over thousands of kilometers. The satellite and the ground-based results both indicate a preponderance of wave occurrence during the equinoxes and at preferred latitudes.     

Observation of 6.5-day waves in the MLT region over Wuhan

In this paper, the 6.5-day planetary waves over Wuhan (30.5°N, 114.3°E) were investigated on the basis of the meteor radar measurements within 78–98 km height region during February 2002–December 2005. The observations show that 6.5-day waves have a prominent seasonal variability and have larger amplitudes at equinoxes than at solstices. We also found that intensive waves occur mostly between 84 and 98 km, and the zonal components of 6.5-day waves are a little larger than its meridional components on average. The main periods of 6.5-day waves are near 6–7 days in spring/winter season and 5–7 days (even extend to 8 days) in autumn months. However, these waves exhibit a downward progression when the amplitude is large. Robust wave events occur basically in eastward background winds. During the 4-year interval, the strongest waves were found in Apri–-May of 2003 and 2004.     

Vertical velocities associated with gravity waves measured in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere with the EISCAT VHF radar

The EISCAT VHF radar (69.4°N, 19.1°E) has been used to record vertical winds at mesopause heights on a total of 31 days between June 1990 and January 1993. The data reveal a motion field dominated by quasi-monochromatic gravity waves with representative apparent periods of 30–40 min, amplitudes of up to 2.5 m s^–1 and large vertical wavelength. In some instances waves appear to be ducted. Vertical profiles of the vertical-velocity variance display a variety of forms, with little indication of systematic wave growth with height. Daily mean variance profiles evaluated for consecutive days of recording show that the general shape of the variance profiles persists over several days. The mean variance evaluated over a 10 km height range has values from 1.2 m²s^–2 to 6.5 m²s^–2 and suggests a semi-annual seasonal cycle with equinoctial minima and solsticial maxima. The mean vertical wavenumber spectrum evaluated at heights up to 86 km has a slope (spectral index) of -1.36 ± 0.2, consistent with observations at lower heights but disagreeing with the predictions of a number of saturation theories advanced to explain gravity-wave spectra. The spectral slopes evaluated for individual days have a range of values, and steeper slopes are observed in summer than in winter. The spectra also appear to be generally steeper on days with lower mean vertical-velocity variance.     

Seasonal variabilities of low-latitude mesospheric winds

Observations of mesospheric winds over a period of four years with the partial reflection radar at Tirunelveli (8.7°N, 77.8°E), India, are presented in this study. The emphasis is on describing seasonal variabilities in mean zonal and meridional winds in the altitude region 70–98 km. The meridional winds exhibit overall transequatorial flow associated with differential heating in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. At lower altitudes (70–80 km) the mean zonal winds reveal easterly flow during summer and westerly flow during winter, as expected from a circulation driven by solar forcing. In the higher altitude regime (80–98 km) and at all altitudes during equinox periods, the mean zonal flow is subjected to the semi-annual oscillation (SAO). The interannual variability detected in the occurrence of SAO over Tirunelveli has also been observed in the data sets obtained from the recent UARS satellite mission. Harmonic analysis results over a period of two years indicate the presence of long-period oscillations in the mean zonal wind at specific harmonic periods near 240, 150 and 120 days. Results presented in this study are discussed in the context of current understanding of equatorial wave propagation.     

Wavelet analysis on transient behaviour of tidal amplitude fluctuations observed by meteor radar in the lower thermosphere above Bulgaria

On the basis of bispectral analysis applied to the hourly data set of neutral wind measured by meteor radar in the MLT region above Bulgaria it was demonstrated that nonlinear processes are frequently and regularly acting in the mesopause region. They contribute significantly to the short-term tidal variability and are apparently responsible for the observed complicated behavior of the tidal characteristics. A Morlet wavelet transform is proposed as a technique for studying nonstationary signals. By simulated data it was revealed that the Morlet wavelet transform is especially convenient for analyzing signals with: (1) a wide range of dominant frequencies which are localized in different time intervals; (2) amplitude and frequency modulated spectral components, and (3) singular, wave-like events, observed in the neutral wind of the MLT region and connected mainly with large-scale disturbances propagated from below. By applying a Morlet wavelet transform to the hourly values of the amplitudes of diurnal and semidiurnal tides the basic oscillations with periods of planetary waves (1.5/20 days), as well as their development in time, are obtained. A cross-wavelet analysis is used to clarify the relation between the tidal and mean neutral wind variability. The results of bispectral analysis indicate which planetary waves participated in the nonlinear coupling with the atmospheric tides, while the results of cross-wavelet analysis outline their time intervals if these interactions are local.     

Instability of planetary waves in a high vertical resolution model

Abstract

A high vertical resolution model is used to examine the instability of a baroclinic zonal flow and a finite amplitude topographically forced wave. Two families of unstable modes are found, consisting of zonally propagating most unstable modes, and stationary unstable modes. The former have time scale and spatial structure similar to baroclinic synoptic disturbances, but are localized in space due to interaction with the zonally asymmetric forcing. These modes transport heat efficiently in both the zonal and meridional directions. The second family of stationary unstable modes has characteristics of modes of low frequency variability of the atmosphere. They have time scales of 10 days and longer, and are of planetary scale with an equivalent barotropic vertical structure. The horizontal structure resembles blocking flows. They are maintained by available potential energy of the basic wave, and have large zonal heat fluxes. The results for both families of modes are interpreted in terms of an interaction between forcing and baroclinic instability to create favoured regions for eddy development. Applications to baroclinic planetary waves are also considered.     

Inertia-gravity waves in the troposphere and lower stratosphere associated with a jet stream exit region

Radar measurements at Aberystwyth (52.4°N, 4.1°W) of winds at tropospheric and lower stratospheric heights are shown for 12–13 March 1994 in a region of highly curved flow, downstream of the jet maximum. The perturbations of horizontal velocity have comparable amplitudes in the troposphere and lower stratosphere with downward and upward phase propagation, respectively, in these two height regions. The sense of rotation with increasing height in hodographs of horizontal perturbation velocity derived for hourly intervals show downwards propagation of energy in the troposphere and upward propagation in the lower stratosphere with vertical wavelengths of 1.7 to 2.3 km. The results indicate inertia-gravity waves propagating in a direction similar to that of the jet stream but at smaller velocities. Some of the features observed contrast with those of previous observations of inertia-gravity waves propagating transverse to the jet stream. The interpretation of the hodographs to derive wave parameters has taken account of the vertical shear of the background wind transverse to the direction of wave propagation.     

The 11-year solar cycle, the Sun's rotation, and the middle stratosphere in winter. Part II: Response of planetary waves

The effect of the 11-year solar cycle on the response of planetary wavenumbers 1 and 2 at 10 and 30 hPa in winter to solar activity oscillations on the time scale of the Sun's rotation (27.2 day) is discussed in terms of statistical spectral analysis. The three oscillations studied are the 27.2 d (period of the Sun's rotation), 25.3 d (periodicity caused by modulation of the 27.2 d stratospheric response by annual atmospheric variation), and 54.4 d (doubled period of the solar rotation). A significant effect of the 11-year solar cycle is found for the 54.4 d periodicity in planetary wavenumber 1, and for the 27.2 and 25.3 d periodicities in planetary wavenumber 2. The effect of the 11-year solar cycle is expressed in the evident differences between the amplitudes of responses of planetary waves at maximum and minimum of the solar cycle: the amplitudes are much larger at high than at low solar activity. The 11-year modulation of planetary wave activity is most pronounced at mid-latitudes, mainly at 40–60°N, where the observed variability of planetary waves is large. The results obtained are in good agreement with results of the recent modeling study by Shindell et al. (Science 284 (1999) 305).     

The summertime 12-h wind oscillation with zonal wavenumber s = 1 in the lower thermosphere over the South Pole

Meteor radar measurements of winds near 95 km in four azimuth directions from the geographic South Pole are analyzed to reveal characteristics of the 12-h oscillation with zonal wavenumber one (s = 1). The wind measurements are confined to the periods from 19 January 1995 through 26 January 1996 and from 21 November 1996 through 27 January 1997. The 12-h s = 1 oscillation is found to be a predominantly summertime phenomenon, and is replaced in winter by a spectrum of oscillations with periods between 6 and 11.5 h. Both summers are characterized by minimum amplitudes (5–10 ms^–1) during early January and maxima (15–20 ms^–1) in November and late January. For 10-day means of the 12-h oscillation, smooth evolutions of phase of order 4–6 h occur during the course of the summer. In addition, there is considerable day-to-day variability (±5–10 ms^–1 in amplitude) with distinct periods (i.e., 5 days and 8 days) which suggests modulation by planetary-scale disturbances. A comparison of climatological data from Scott Base, Molodezhnaya, and Mawson stations suggests that the 12-h oscillation near 78°S is s = 1, but that at 68°S there is probably a mixture between s = 1 and other zonal wavenumber oscillations (most probably s = 2). The mechanism responsible for the existence of the 12-h s = 1 oscillation has not yet been identified. Possible origins discussed herein include in situ excitation, nonlinear interaction between the migrating semidiurnal tide and a stationary s = 1 feature, and thermal excitation in the troposphere.     

Signature of atmospheric oscillations in GPS-measured tropospheric delay

Ground-based GPS finds potential applications in many atmospheric studies such as spatial distribution of columnar water vapor as well as the tidal oscillations in the atmosphere. The zenith tropospheric delay (ZTD) derived from GPS data at two Indian IGS stations are used to establish its potential for studying the atmospheric tidal, intra-seasonal and planetary oscillations. The major tidal oscillations observed in ZTD data are diurnal, semi-diurnal and their harmonics. Prominent intra-seasonal oscillations observed in ZTD are reported for the first time in this context. These intra-seasonal oscillations are Madden–Julian Oscillation (30–70 days, 60–90 days, 100–120 days) and planetary waves (like 27, 16 and 5–10 days periodicities). Quantification of these periodicities will provide a useful handle to improve the empirical models employed in the estimation of tropospheric delay.     

Possible solar forcing of interannual and decadal stratospheric planetary wave variability in the northern hemisphere: An observational study

The variability of stratospheric planetary waves and their possible connection with the 11-year solar cycle forcing have been investigated using annual-mean temperatures for the period of 1958–2001 derived from two reanalysis data sets. The significant planetary waves (wavenumbers 1–3) can be identified in the northern mid-high latitudes (55–75°N) in the stratosphere using this data. Comparisons with satellite-retrieved products from the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) confirm the significant planetary wave variability seen in the reanalyses. A planetary wave amplitude index (PWAI) is defined to indicate the strength of the stratospheric planetary waves. The PWAI is derived from Fourier analysis of the temperature field for wavenumbers 1–3 and averaged over 55–75°N latitude and the 70–20 hPa layers. The results include two meaningful inter-annual oscillations (2- and 8-year) and one decadal trend (16-year) that was derived from wavelet analysis. The stratospheric temperature structure of the wave amplitudes appear associated with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) which explicitly changed with the PWAI. The temperature gradients between the polar and mid-high latitudes show opposite tendencies between the top-10 strong and weak wave regimes.The variation of the planetary wave amplitude appears closely related to the solar forcing during the recent four solar cycles (20–23). The peak of the 2-year oscillation occurs synchronously with solar minimum, and is consistent with the negative correlation between the PWAI and the observed solar UV irradiance. The UV changes between the maxima and minima of the 11-year solar cycle impact the temperature structure in the middle-lower stratosphere in the mid-high latitudes and hence influence the planetary waves. During solar maximum, the dominant influence appears to be exerted through changes in static stability, leading to a reduction in planetary wave amplitude. During solar minimum, the dominant influence appears to be exerted through changes in the meridional temperature gradient and vertical wind shear, leading to an enhancement of planetary wave amplitude.     

Propagation of Stationary Planetary Waves in the Upper Atmosphere under Different Solar Activity

Numerical modeling of changes in the zonal circulation and amplitudes of stationary planetary waves are performed with an accounting for the impact of solar activity variations on the thermosphere. A thermospheric version of the Middle/Upper Atmosphere Model (MUAM) is used to calculate the circulation in the middle and upper atmosphere at altitudes up to 300 km from the Earth’s surface. Different values of the solar radio emission flux in the thermosphere are specified at a wavelength of 10.7 cm to take into account the solar activity variations. The ionospheric conductivities and their variations in latitude, longitude, and time are taken into account. The calculations are done for the January–February period and the conditions of low, medium, and high solar activity. It was shown that, during high-activity periods, the zonal wind velocities increases at altitudes exceeding 150 km and decreases in the lower layers. The amplitudes of planetary waves at high solar activity with respect to the altitude above 120 km or below 100 km, respectively, are smaller or larger than those at low activity. These differences correspond to the calculated changes in the refractive index of the atmosphere for stationary planetary waves and the Eliassen–Palm flux. Changes in the conditions for the propagation and reflection of stationary planetary waves in the thermosphere may influence the variations in their amplitudes and the atmospheric circulation, including the lower altitudes of the middle atmosphere.