基于GIS技术的全国地面塌陷灾害危险性评价

本文运用GIS的缓冲区、叠加、空间分析等功能,从地貌类型、碳酸盐岩类型、水文地质条件、人类活动及土地利用因素方面,对以岩溶塌陷和采空塌陷为代表的中国地面塌陷灾害危险性进行评价.其中模型中各影响因素的权重值主要是通过层次分析法来确定;而影响因素中的分类值则是地面塌陷点的分布概率.评估结果表明,地面塌陷极高危险区主要分布在中国的广西、贵州、云南,其次是湖北、湖南、重庆、四川、陕西.     

地震恢复重建规划区地质灾害特征及危险性评价

通过收集有关资料和实地勘察,描述并总结了四川省青川县板桥乡城建设用地地质灾害的发育特征。根据地质灾害点目前的稳定状态和潜在危害程度,定性评价了区内各地质灾害点的危险性。并基于各地质灾害点的危险程度,综合区内的地形地貌、地质条件和人为因素、气象水文条件,对青）ll县板桥乡地质灾害危险性进行了分区,为建设用地的规划设计提供了依据：     

Geochemical Atlas of Slovakia and examples of its applications to environmental problems

Results of comprehensive geochemical mapping and thematic studies of the Slovak territory (rocks, soils, stream sediments, groundwaters, biomass, and radioactivity) in the first half of the 1990s led to several new research programmes in Slovakia, within the frame of which new methodologies for geochemical data evaluation and map visualization were elaborated. This study describes the application and elaboration of data from the Geochemical Atlas of the Slovak Republic at national and regional levels. Based on the index of environmental risk (I_ER = ΣPEC/PNEC), the level of contamination for the geological component of the environment in Slovakia was evaluated. Approximately 10.5% of Slovakia’s territory was characterized as being environmentally disturbed to highly disturbed. In the areas where environmental loadings have accumulated, 14 regions where environmental risks existed due to high element concentrations were defined. The model calculations of health risk estimates based on the databases of the Geochemical Atlas for groundwater and soils indicate that the possible risk occurrence of carcinogenic diseases from groundwater arsenic contents is high in more than 10% of Slovakia, whereas the chronic risk is negligible. To determinate the background and threshold levels a combined statistical–geochemical approach was developed and applied as an example for groundwater at the national level as well as for single groundwater bodies. The results of statistical method application for the whole groundwater body (GBW) were compared with the background values for anthropogenically non-influenced areas in GBW. Final background value took into account time variations and spatial distribution of the element in GBW. Furthermore, based on the database from the Geochemical Atlas for groundwater, groundwater bodies potentially at qualitative risk were delineated for the whole of Slovakia. From a total of 101 groundwater bodies 17 were characterized as being at risk and 22 as being at possible risk.     

应用逼近理想解法综合评价区域水资源承载能力

在多目标决策中,基于传统的逼近于理想解的技术,根据区域水资源承载能力的强与弱和待评价的对象(评价方案)的不理想(负理想)与理想(劣与优)这些典型的模糊概念,提出了基于模糊集合的逼近理想解法(TOPSISFS),并应用于区域水资源承载能力的综合评价中。TOPSISFS与投影寻踪模型法(PP法)、理想区间法(MODMIIM)相比,简单、有效。TOPSISFS可广泛应用于多目标决策中。     

Risk Assessment,Emergency Preparedness and Response to Hazards: The Case of the 1997 Red River Valley Flood,Canada

The prevention and/or mitigation offlood disasters requires continual research, numerouscapital investment decisions, and high-qualitymaintenance and modifications of flood-controlstructures. In addition, institutional and privatepreparedness is needed. The experience offlood-control in North America has shown mixedoutcomes: while flood frequency has declined duringthe last few decades, the economic losses havecontinued to rise. Recent catastrophic floods havealso been linked to major structural interventions inthe region. The flood diversions may cause harmfuleffects upon the floodplain inhabitants by influencingflood levels in areas which are not normallyflood-prone. The increasing vulnerability of thefloodplain inhabitants poses new challenges and raisesquestions concerning the existing risk assessmentmethods, institutional preparedness and responses todisaster-related public emergencies, and local-levelpublic involvement in flood mitigation efforts.In the context of the catastrophic 1997 floods of theRed River Valley, Manitoba, Canada, this researchfocuses on two aspects of flood-related emergencygovernance and management: (i) the functions andeffectiveness of control structures, and (ii) theroles, responsibilities and effectiveness oflegislative and other operational measures. The studyconcludes that the flood-loss mitigation measures,both in terms of effects of control structures andinstitutional interventions for emergency evacuation,were not fully effective for ensuring the well-beingand satisfaction of floodplain inhabitants. Althoughorganizational preparedness and mobilization to copewith the 1997 flood emergency was considerable, theirsuccess during the onset of the flood event waslimited. Lack of communication and understandingbetween institutions, a reluctance to implementup-to-date regulations, and minimal publicparticipation in the emergency decision-making processall contributed to the difficulties experienced byfloodplain inhabitants.     

Typology of Natural Hazards and Assessment of Associated Risks in the Mount Bambouto Caldera (Cameroon Line,West Cameroon)

Abstract: Mount Bambouto is a polygenic stratovolcano of the Cameroon Volcanic Line, built between 21?Ma and 4.5?Ma. It is situated approximately 200?km NE of Mount Cameroon, between 09°55′ and 10°15′ longitude east and, 05°25′ and 05°50′ latitude north. The volcano covers an area of 500?km2 and culminates at 2740?m at Mélétan dome and bears a collapsed caldera at the summit (13?×?8?km). Mount Bambouto is characterized by several natural hazards of different origins: meteorological, such as landslides and rock falls; anthropogenic, such as bushfires, tribal wars and deforestation; and volcanological, such as volcanic eruption. The thematic map shows that 55–60% of the caldera has high probability of occurrence of mass movement. The caldera has a high population density (3000 inhabitants), which increases the level of risk, evaluated at approximately $US3.8 million for patrimony, 3000 civilian deaths and destruction of biodiversity.     

基于AHP的模糊综合评判在公路地质灾害的危险性评价

以自贡市省道S305线一级公路地质灾害为研究对象,分析了公路复杂的地质环境条件—地质构造特征、地形地貌特征、水文气象特征地层岩性、断裂与地震等因素。采用改进的层次分析法,建构省道S305线一级公路的各类地质灾害评判模型,再结合经济损失,运用模糊综合评价数学模型,得出其地质灾害的危险性分区结论,为公路地质灾害的防治提供了科学的参考依据。     

甘肃临夏积石山县6.2级地震地质灾害发育特征及危险性评价

2023年12月18日23时59分,甘肃省临夏州积石山县发生Ms6.2级地震,诱发了大量崩滑地质灾害,严重威胁人民生命财产安全。基于震区现场实地调查成果,开展地震诱发加剧地质灾害的发育特征、危险性评价研究,提出防灾减灾措施建议。根据实地调查统计,此次地震后新增地质灾害隐患点64处,加剧的地质灾害隐患点有63处。新增和变形加剧的隐患点以崩塌为主,滑坡次之;规模等级以小型为主,中型次之。崩滑地质灾害主要集中在黄土丘陵区,以黄土陡坎地带切坡建房、切坡修路为主。利用GIS技术的加权信息量法评价积石山县域地质灾害易发性。结果显示,高易发区、中易发区、低易发区、非易发区占比分别为5.45%、9.83%、32.70%和52.02%,其中高易发区主要分布在积石山东部黄土丘陵区的山梁地带。基于区域地质灾害易发性评价,开展地震活动断裂、地震动分布以及不同降雨工况条件（10年、20年、50年、100年一遇）下积石山县域地质灾害危险性评价。结果显示：100年一遇极高危险区较10年一遇极高危险区的增幅最大为18.26%,说明未来区内遭遇极端降雨会显著提高区内地质灾害危险程度。研究认为,积石山地震地质灾害后效应将增强,未来崩塌、滑坡发生频次升高,地质灾害易在降水、冻融条件下形成,需针对性地采取防控措施,有效降低其威胁程度。     

论工业建设项目的环境风险及其评价

主要讨论和揭示了工业建设项目所产生环境风险的内涵与特征，阐述了环境风险如何表征以及它的评价标准－可接受水平的确定，最后 在此基础上，指出了开展工业建设项目环境风险评价的方法与步骤。     

北京地区建设用地地面沉降危险性评估方法及标准

地面沉降危险性评估是北京地区建设用地地质灾害危险性评估工作的一个重要组成部分。本文对地面沉降危险性评估方法及标准进行了全面梳理,以期为北京地区的地质灾害评估提供参考。     

综合指数法和AHP法在地质灾害危险性综合评估中的应用

针对地质灾害危险性综合评估存在的模糊性,介绍了综合指数法及AHP法在地质灾害危险性综合评估中的计算方法及步骤。并通过工程实例,阐述了其应用。     

地质灾害危险性评估在某工程建设中的应用

本文通过对工程建设项目的实例分析，研究其在建设和运营过程中遭受地质灾害的危险性，以及工程建设诱发或加剧地质灾害的可能性，进而提出相宜的地质灾害防治对策，以确保工程建设的质量和安全，减少经济损失，保护环境。     

新疆喀纳斯国家地质公园旅游资源及评价

新疆喀纳斯国家地质公园是以第四纪冰川遗迹为主要特色的综合性国家地质公园。本文对公园内的旅游资源进行了概要介绍，并对其作了定性评价，认为园区内旅游资源类型多样，功能齐全，极具科考、旅游观光和科普教育价值。     

四川雅江县城地质灾害发育特征与稳定性评价

采用遥感解译与工程地质测量相结合的方法,开展了雅江县城地质灾害发育特征调查以及单体地质灾害稳定性和发展趋势预测,提出了防治对策建议。研究表明:雅江县城共发育7处地质灾害隐患点,威胁83户城镇居民的生命财产安全以及G318国道、雅江中学的安全运行;地质灾害体稳定性均处于差和较差级别,滑坡和危岩崩塌为雅江县城最主要危险源;雅江县城地质灾害防治应遵循“工程治理为主,专业监测与群测群防相结合”的原则,系统开展应急排危工程、综合治理工程和专业监测工程,最大限度消除地质灾害隐患,为雅江县城建设和发展提供地质安全保障。     

Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment for Tulbagh,South Africa: Part II – Assessment of Seismic Risk

This is the second part of our study on the assessment of seismic hazard and seismic risk for Tulbagh, the settlement, located about 90 km N-E from Cape Town, where the strongest and most damaging earthquake known in the existing earthquake history of South Africa took place. This part of our study, which can be read independently from Part I, concentrates on the probabilistic seismic risk analysis (PSRA) forTulbagh. The work begins with an introduction and a historical perspective on the estimation of seismic damage to buildings. The methodology for the estimation of expected damage from a probabilistic point of view is then presented. The work closes with an application of the described methodology to a site in the vicinity of Tulbagh.     

Contribution of Geographical Information Systems to the Management of Volcanic Crises

The incorporation of a set ofcomputer-based tools, such as Geographical InformationSystems and physical models, to the field of riskassessment, introduces a new perspective in thevolcanic risk maps production, increasing the analysisand modelling capabilities available through theapplication of conventional methodologies. Amethodology adapted to the requirements andcharacteristics of the new operating environment hasbeen applied at Tenerife island (Canary Islands,Spain) to carry out a study devoted to analyse thesuitability of these tools for near real-timemanagement of volcanic crises. With this in mind, aseries of potential eruption scenarios have beenselected to identify and characterise which elementsat risk would prove most vulnerable against a specificvolcanic phenomenon, depending on the socio-economiccharacteristics of the area affected and the resultingdistribution of the volcanic products. This kind ofinformation is fundamental to update, adapt or produceeffective risk management and emergency plans orprotocols, where the measures to mitigate or fightagainst a specific volcanic disaster have to be taken,incorporating the existing knowledge of the phenomenonbehaviour and taking into account their potentialeffects on the area of interest.     

Typology of Natural Hazards and Assessment of Associated Risks in the Mount Bambouto Caldera(Cameroon Line,West Cameroon)

Mount Bambouto is a polygenic stratovolcano of the Cameroon Volcanic Line,built between 21 Ma and 4.5 Ma.It is situated approximately 200 km NE of Mount Cameroon,between 09°55′and 10°15′longitude east and,05°25′and 05°50′latitude north.The volcano covers an area of 500 km~2 and culminates at 2740 m at Meletan dome and bears a collapsed caldera at the summit (13×8 km).Mount Bambouto is characterized by several natural hazards of different origins: meteorological,such as landslides and rock falls;anthropog...     

浅层地下水中甲烷气体调查与风险评价

目前国内尚没有关于浅层地下水中甲烷气体调查及危险性评价的技术性规范,上海及周边地区工程建设遇到此问题时,一般采用钻孔测气体压力的方法对其发育情况进行评估。本文通过安装监测井,分析土壤和多层地下水样本结合的方法,对典型研究区内的浅层甲烷气体进行分布调查;参照美国相关标准对浅层甲烷进行了风险评估,从量化角度分析影响场地甲烷再生成的各种因素,并评估场地施工及运营期间可能因甲烷气体暴露所造成的危害,提出了相应的防治措施。     

岩土爆破工程危险源辨识、风险评价和控制

简述了岩土爆破工程按《职业健康安全管理体系一规范》（GB／T28001）进行危险源辨识、风险评价和控制的方法,辨识重大危险源,对重大危险源进行控制,减少安全风险,提高安全运行绩效。