PERCEPTIONS OF CRIME AND SAFETY IN THREE MIDWESTERN PARKS*

While recent research provides a general model of the causes and consequences of fear of crime, little is known about how the relationships among these model components may vary from one setting to another. Garofalo's fear of crime model is used to explore the extent and impact of fear of crime in recreational settings. Two hundred sixty-eight visitors to three Midwestern district level parks were interviewed on-site using a structured questionnaire. Results generally support the model and demonstrate a link between perception and behavior related to fear of crime. Respondents who felt unsafe in the park alone also tended to report avoidance behavior. Females were more likely than males to report both fear and avoidance. Direct experience with park crime and incivility, perceptions of other park visitors, and familiarity with the park were not strongly associated with either feelings of safety or reported avoidance.     

Investigating the Spatiotemporal Links Between Disorder,Crime, and the Fear of Crime

While links between social and physical disorder, crime, and the fear of crime have long been areas of research interest, few studies have looked at these links from a spatiotemporal viewpoint. This is somewhat surprising, as many of the factors associated with disorder, crime, and fear are known to vary over time and space. This paper uses GISystems to investigate potential spatiotemporal links between these areas in Wollongong, New South Wales, with specific focus on links between graffiti and the fear of crime. The results reveal that the distribution of fear of crime varies considerably over time and is often spatially coincident with concentrations of disorder. Graffiti was found to be one of the most prevalent types of physical disorder. The results are discussed in the context of the “broken windows” thesis and strategic intervention at the community level.     

Fear,crime, and space: The case of Viçosa,Brazil

Crime is both a factual and perceptual component of the urban landscape, seemingly both a societal pathology and the consequence of economic disparity between social groups. Crime has a spatial structure that can be revealed by mapping. Urban crime has a spatial multiplier effect that changes the values and perceptions of how people see urban space, and which jeopardizes the quality of life of a city's inhabitants. In this research we examine the question of whether the geography of actual criminal acts is echoed by peoples' perceptions of crime, what might be termed their “spaces of fear”. We ask how the fear of crime is associated with reported urban crime. Urban crime incidents have been increasing in Viçosa, Minas Gerais, Brazil. We assembled crime information about Viçosa from two sources: first, crime as reported to the police and second, crime as perceived by city residents and measured by surveys and interviews. Reported criminal acts reveal a clustered geography, focusing particularly on the Downtown area, where there is a concentration of urban wealth and potential victims are more numerous. Offenses against property were focused on Downtown, while offenses against the person were located mostly in peripheral areas. The widespread feeling of insecurity in the city's neighborhoods, reflecting the fear of becoming a victim of violence and crime, was common throughout the city. Results confirmed the conclusion of past studies showing that the fear of violence and crime are not directly related to increasing numbers of criminal reports. Sites with higher incidence of crimes are not places with higher levels of fear. Rather than being geographically explainable “spaces of fear”, the spatial distribution of the fear of violence and crime appears to be unrelated in Viçosa, and neither is clustered or dispersed in any measurable way.     

Examining the neighbourhood‐level predictors of fear of crime in Christchurch,New Zealand

The fear of crime can significantly reduce the quality of life of individuals, yet little is known about what neighbourhood‐level factors drive feelings of vulnerability in New Zealand. Even less is known about the impact that recorded crime has on individuals' fear in the country. In this study, we examined the neighbourhood‐level factors related to fear of crime in Christchurch, focusing specifically on whether recorded crime in neighbourhoods influences fear. The fear of crime in Christchurch was found to be the greatest in more affluent, ethnically homogenous and residentially stable neighbourhoods, while recorded crime levels were found to be relatively lower in these neighbourhoods.     

The geography of crime fear: A pilot study exploring event-based perceptions of risk using mobile technology

The current pilot study explores whether mobile technology can be leveraged in survey research to gather meaningful context-dependent data on fear of crime and risk perception formation. A series of Ecological Momentary Assessments (EMAs) were administered to students enrolled at an Australian University (N = 20), using a smartphone application. Analysis of data collected from participants in their everyday activity spaces a) show strong internal consistency among multiple measures of crime fear; b) indicate that perceptual measures of social cohesion are significant predictors of victimisation worry; and c) support most hypothesised associations between concepts contained in contemporary models of crime fear. Unfortunately, some aspects of the pilot study design could not be implemented as planned, which have implications for future research. Specifically, we found that triggering participant's surveys based on their location (rather than time), produced data that was not conducive to robust place-based analysis. In spite of this limitation, we offer alternative means of measuring the effects of place on fear of crime using mobile devices.     

Fear of crime, cultural threat and the countryside

Summary This paper argues that the study of crime and the fear of crime in rural areas reveals much about the geography of crime, policing and rural society. Drawing upon a crime and safety survey conducted with residents of a rural parish in Worcestershire it establishes a link between fear of crime and 'cultural threats' to residents' dominant constructions of rurality. It concludes by considering the 1998 Crime and Disorder Act and its implications for rural policing and society.     

犯罪恐惧感与犯罪活动空间分布的匹配关系及其影响因素

利用北京社会调查、法律文书、兴趣点、路网、定位数据,发现盗窃及暴力犯罪密度对犯罪恐惧感并无显著关联或影响偏弱,犯罪活动与犯罪恐惧感存在“匹配且具高安全性”“匹配且具高危险性”“不匹配且比主观感知更危险”“不匹配且比主观感知更安全”等类型。脆弱人群更易高估安全风险;防卫空间及街道眼理论分别适用于解释客观犯罪和主观感知,高密度、混合型、密路网的可渗透环境容易产生比主观感知更危险的情形;物理与社会失序、居住不稳定性会产生比主观感知更安全的情形;高人员流动性及高地位社区的居民则易低估安全风险;出入管控和环境维护能起到减犯罪、降恐惧的双重作用。     

Beyond anecdotal evidence: Do subsidized housing developments increase neighborhood crime?

While planners and policymakers have advocated the need for project-based subsidized housing, they often face the challenge of strong community opposition due to the negative perceptions of subsidized housing and subsidized households, and the fear that these developments and residents would bring increased crime. This paper aims to extend beyond anecdotal evidence by examining the impact of a popular U.S. affordable housing program, the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) program, on neighborhood crime rates. We estimate the levels and trends in neighborhood crime before and after LIHTC developments, based on crime incidents data from 2000 to 2009 in Austin, Texas, using the Adjusted Interrupted Time Series–Difference in Differences (AITS–DID) approach to clarify the causal direction of impacts of LIHTC developments. Results show that LIHTC subsidized housing tended to be developed in neighborhoods where crime was already prevalent, and contrary to popular perception, LIHTC developments have a mitigating impact on neighborhood crime. These results suggest that LIHTC developments may be an effective tool for revitalizing distressed neighborhoods by ameliorating the “broken windows” problem and reducing neighborhood crime.     

Fortress Australia? (In)security and private governance in a gated residential estate

Part of a broader trend towards all-inclusive master planned developments, gated residential estates are an intensely private form of residential development with a degree of securitisation. Gated residential estates have been the topic of intense debate in urban planning and policy circles and the target of fierce criticism for potential exclusionary outcomes as fearful residents lock themselves away from the ills of wider urban society. Crime, a fear of crime and the need for security dominate discussions and understandings of gated residential developments in Australia without much empirical validation. This paper poses two key research questions: does fear of crime and need for increased security drive residents towards gated estates; and what are the lived experiences of security, gates and crime once residing within a gated estate? Based on in-depth research in Macquarie Links (one of Sydney's largest gated estates) this paper offers insights into the lived dimensions of gated estates. The paper explores the attractions and realities of security services and infrastructure, private control over the residential environment and the importance placed by the residents on the ability to protect the nature of their neighbourhood and to protect themselves from any ‘unwanted’ activities or groups. The discussion in this paper demonstrates that for the residents in the study, residing in a secure residential neighbourhood is less about the role and place of physical security and security services, and more to do with protection afforded by the private governance structure of the neighbourhood.     

The Spatial Isolation of Elderly Single-Room-Occupancy Hotel Tenants*

This paper documents the spatial activity of elderly SRO hotel tenants in the service-dependent ghetto. Exploratory fieldwork was conducted in a neighborhood of Chicago during 1985 and 1986. At four of the identified hotels, 53 activity spaces were recorded by first-hand involvement in the geographical activity of the participants. The fear of both street crime and social-service agencies imposes isolation upon this population.     

不同主体特征的犯罪人空间出行行为分析

犯罪人的空间出行行为对描述和理解犯罪人的犯罪过程具有重要作用。目前已有的研究大多集中于犯罪人空间出行距离的一般性统计分析,缺少从犯罪人不同主体特征下的空间出行行为的精细化与个性化研究。论文以北京市盗窃电动自行车案件为例,对不同主体特征要素下的犯罪人空间出行距离分布差异性进行了实证研究,结果表明：具有不同性别、年龄、籍贯和犯罪经验属性的犯罪人空间出行距离分布存在明显差异,其中男性犯罪人的犯罪出行距离略高于女性犯罪人,但其空间缓冲距离却较女性犯罪人略小;中年犯罪人较青少年和老年犯罪人具有更大的犯罪出行距离和空间缓冲半径;外来犯罪人群体较本地犯罪人群体的犯罪出行距离和空间缓冲区更远;多次作案的犯罪人在出行距离和空间缓冲距离上要高于作案次数较少的犯罪人。随后,基于最小努力原则和理性抉择理论,从犯罪人主体的出行成本、邻里监护风险感知、犯罪收益等角度构建了犯罪人空间出行的决策模型,并对不同主体特征要素作用下的犯罪人空间出行行为的差异性进行了解释。研究结论可为犯罪预测及警务实践提供有效支撑。     

街头抢劫者前犯罪经历对其后作案地选择的影响

作案地选择是犯罪地理学的研究主题。已有的重复作案地选择的研究表明,犯罪者“前案件”作案地选择对他们“后案件”作案地选择具有影响,但以往研究关注的是先前的犯罪时间和地点对其后续作案地选择的影响,仍未检验犯罪者在“前案件”中犯罪经历的具体作用。因此,论文以中国东南沿海ZG市为例,利用街头抢劫者的抓捕数据和混合Logit模型,聚焦探析街头抢劫者先前的个体犯罪经历对他们随后的作案地选择的影响。研究发现：街头抢劫者在“前案件”中的犯罪间隔、犯罪出行和当场被捕等个体犯罪经历对其“后案件”作案地选择具有强烈的影响,即“前后案件”的犯罪间隔越临近、“前案件”犯罪出行距离越短,以及“前案件”未当场被捕,则大大增加了街头抢劫者返回到先前抢劫区域再次犯罪的可能性。并通过警察访谈和结合理论分析,发现“前案件”未当场被捕是由犯罪者当场被捕的恐惧感、警察特殊的干预方式,以及社会凝聚力和犯罪防控的相互作用而形成。研究结论可为警务部门的“事前防控”与“主动处置”提供一定的参考。     

警用视频监控的犯罪防控效果及空间差异 ——以苏州市姑苏区为例

采用双重差分法,对苏州市姑苏区2014~2016年的警情数据进行分析,评估警用治安视频监控的犯罪防控效果。结果表明,视频监控对犯罪具有明显的抑制性作用。在案件类型上,视频监控对盗窃类案件的防控效果较好,但对盗窃电动自行车、盗窃电动车电瓶的防控效果较小。在时间维度上,与节假日相比,对工作日犯罪的抑制效果更好;与晚上相比,对白天犯罪的抑制效果更好。针对通过局部空间自相关分析所获取的重点区域,与警务人员访谈和实地调研后发现,视频监控的犯罪防控效果与周边地理环境、人流密集程度、警务情况等密切相关。     

Crime concentrations and similarities in spatial crime patterns in a Brazilian context

Research within the geography of crime and spatial criminology literature most often show that crime is highly concentrated in particular places. Moreover, a subset of this literature has shown that the spatial patterns of these concentrations are different across crime types. This raises questions regarding the appropriateness of aggregating crime types (property and violent crime, for example) when the underlying spatial pattern is of interest. In this paper, using crime data from Campinas, Brazil, we investigate the crime concentrations and the similarities among different crime types across space. Similar to some recent research in another context, we find that crime is highly concentrated in Campinas but the ability to aggregate similar crime types at the street segment level is not generalizability when compared to a North American context.     

Contingent Urban Geographies of Violent Crime: Racial Segregation and the Impact of Public Housing in Atlanta

Neighborhood variations in crime incidence rates are most commonly interpreted through the lens of social disorganization theory, or a "communities and crime" perspective. This approach typically articulates explanation for crime by focusing on the characteristics of communities—a unitary scale most commonly equated with neighborhoods. We argue that this perspective fails to recognize the importance of broader urban geographic contexts, and offer an extension that sees geographically contingent processes functioning at multiple scales simultaneously. We develop this perspective applied to the "spread effects" of public housing on violent crime in surrounding neighborhoods: these spread effects are conditioned by the nature of the urban contexts through which they operate. Specifically, deeply divided and racialized patterns of residential segregation at least partially define the contexts that condition public housing's effect on crime. We examine our perspective using early 1990s block group data for the City of Atlanta and find substantial evidence in support of our perspective. In particular, we find that Techwood Homes, the nation's first federally constructed public housing project, exerted different geographic spread effects in predominantly White than in predominantly Black portions of the city. By failing to recognize the complexity and contingency of public housing's geographic effect on crime in surrounding neighborhoods, previous approaches substantially overestimate crime in White areas, and underestimate crime in Black areas.     

An Evaluation of Information Meetings as a Tool for Addressing Fear of Large Carnivores

Managing authorities in Scandinavia arrange public information meetings when members of the public express fear because wolves or brown bears approach human settlements. This study aimed to increase the understanding of the potential effect of information meetings on self-reported fear of wolves and brown bears. In total, 198 participants completed questionnaires before and after the information meetings. Nine follow-up interviews were held 1 year later. The quantitative analyses revealed that participants who found the information credible reported a significant increase in social trust and a decrease in vulnerability and fear. The qualitative analyses pointed to the importance of information content and meta-communication, for example, nonverbal cues. It is proposed that, among participants who find the information credible, information meetings may change the appraisal of wolves and brown bears, and therefore they might prove useful as an intervention to address fear of these animals.     

A spatio-temporal method for crime prediction using historical crime data and transitional zones identified from nightlight imagery

ABSTRACT

Accurate crime prediction can help allocate police resources for crime reduction and prevention. There are two popular approaches to predict criminal activities: one is based on historical crime, and the other is based on environmental variables correlated with criminal patterns. Previous research on geo-statistical modeling mainly considered one type of data in space-time domain, and few sought to blend multi-source data. In this research, we proposed a spatio-temporal Cokriging algorithm to integrate historical crime data and urban transitional zones for more accurate crime prediction. Time-series historical crime data were used as the primary variable, while urban transitional zones identified from the VIIRS nightlight imagery were used as the secondary co-variable. The algorithm has been applied to predict weekly-based street crime and hotspots in Cincinnati, Ohio. Statistical tests and Predictive Accuracy Index (PAI) and Predictive Efficiency Index (PEI) tests were used to validate predictions in comparison with those of the control group without using the co-variable. The validation results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm with historical crime data and urban transitional zones increased the correlation coefficient by 5.4% for weekdays and by 12.3% for weekends in statistical tests, and gained higher hit rates measured by PAI/PEI in the hotspots test.     

Geography of crime in a Brazilian context: an application of social disorganization theory

Geography of crime research dates back to the early 1800s, most of which in English and in the context of the United States and Europe, but with a growing and significant literature studying the developing world. We contribute to this literature through an application of social disorganization theory in a Latin American context: Campinas, Brazil. We consider a number of property and violent crime types using census tracts as the spatial unit of analysis. Implementing a spatial regression method, we find support for social disorganization theory, but not as strong as similar studies in Europe and North America. However, because of the context of Campinas, Brazil, a different understanding of the local conditions proves to be important for understanding the geography of crime in this context. The implications of these results are discussed in the context of theoretical developments as well as crime prevention initiatives.     

Crime seasonality and its variations across space

Investigations into the seasonal patterns of crime date back 180 years to the beginnings of spatial criminology. This original research by Adolphe Quetelet, and much subsequent work, has shown that various crimes have a seasonal component, but the strength and timing of the respective seasonalities vary by crime type. In this paper, we first investigate the existence of seasonality for a number of different crime types, but also the variations of seasonality across space. We find that not only do the various crime types exhibit seasonal patterns, but those seasonal patterns have relatively distinct spatial patterns. This has implications for theory and policy.     

盗窃者犯罪出行距离的特征及其影响因素——基于居住社区、作案社区及出行物理障碍的综合考虑

从犯罪出行距离的角度研究犯罪行为,有助于更好地理解犯罪发生的机理。已有研究主要探讨作案社区的特征对犯罪者出行距离的影响,尚未综合考虑作案地、居住社区与作案社区差异及出行物理障碍(physical barrier)影响。论文以中国南方某特大城市为例,构建考虑个体层与作案社区层特征的多层线性回归模型,探究盗窃者犯罪出行距离的影响因素。研究发现：① 相比作案社区层,个体层的变量对犯罪出行距离的影响更大;② 出行物理障碍变量会提高模型的解释力,犯罪出行跨越的物理障碍越多,则出行距离越远,且它会影响作案社区中地铁、超市、银行对犯罪出行距离的作用;③ 居住社区与作案社区之间的环境差异对犯罪出行距离有影响,居住社区中的公交站、学校、超市越多,地铁站越少,犯罪者的出行距离越近。研究结论可以为犯罪者的地理画像与警务防控提供理论支撑。