Slope hybrid reliability analysis considering the uncertainty of probability-interval using three-parameter Weibull distribution

A reliability model is proposed to solve the problem of hybrid uncertainty with both random and interval variables in slope engineering. A hybrid uncertainty model based on the dimension reduction method and Taylor expansion is constructed to approximate the limit state function. Using the polynomial theorem and variable transformation method, the origin and center moments’ interval of the limit state function are calculated. Moment information is applied to the expansion of a three-parameter Weibull distribution, and the cumulative distribution function and probability density function of limit state function are determined. As a result, the failure probability interval of the slope is calculated. The interval uncertainty problem is transformed into an interval certainty problem using Taylor expansion without solving for the statistical moment of limit state function using multiple integrals and iteratively searching for the most probable failure points. The numerical results from two slopes show that the proposed method is effective and feasible.

     

Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for performance assessment modeling

Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses methods for computer models are being applied in performance assessment modeling in the geologic high-level radioactive-waste repository program. The models used in performance assessment tend to be complex physical/chemical models with large numbers of input variables. There are two basic approaches to sensitivity and uncertainty analyses: deterministic and statistical. The deterministic approach to sensitivity analysis involves numerical calculation or employs the adjoint form of a partial differential equation to compute partial derivatives; the uncertainty analysis is based on Taylor series expansions of the input variables propagated through the model to compute means and variances of the output variable. The statistical approach to sensitivity analysis involves a response surface approximation to the model with the sensitivity coefficients calculated from the response surface parameters; the uncertainty analysis is based on simulation. The methods each have strengths and weaknesses.     

岩土工程可靠度分析的神经网络四阶矩法

针对岩土工程的功能函数强非线性且难以显式表达的特点,提出了基于人工神经网络的四阶矩法,充分利用了基本随机变量的统计信息。首先利用神经网络对结构的隐式功能函数进行拟合,求得基本随机变量在均值点处的功能函数值及其偏导数,然后利用泰勒级数展开的方法由基本随机变量的前四阶矩求得功能函数的前四阶矩,并借助于Pearson系统获得功能函数的更高阶矩。在此基础上,通过最大熵原理确定以功能函数各阶矩为约束的功能函数的概率密度函数,最后由一次积分得到结构的失效概率。通过数值算例和工程实例不同方法的对比分析,表明基于神经网络的结构可靠度分析四阶矩方法是可行的,有效的,能够满足岩土工程可靠度分析的要求。     

应用计算机“推导”位场水平导数公式的方法及程序

根据台劳级数展开式，将窗口内网格结点位场数据在计算点展开，且对应点两两相减，由最小二乘法求得窗口内网格结点的水平导数算子，将此算子与观测的位场数据褶积，就可求得位场的水平导数。     

应用计算机“推导”位场圆滑滤波及二次导数公式的方法

根据台劳级数展开式,将窗口内网格结点位场数据在计算点展开,且对应点两两相加,由最小二乘法求得窗口内网格结点的圆滑滤波算子和二次导数算子,将此算子与观测的位场数据褶积,就可得到位场圆滑后的数据及水平、垂直二次导数。     

基于常Q模型的分数阶粘弹介质数值模拟方法

基于常Q模型的解耦分数阶拉普拉斯算子粘滞波动方程,可以分开模拟振幅衰减和相位错动。但该方程拉普拉斯算子的阶数是随空间变化的,因此数值求解存在一定困难。这里基于截断的泰勒展开,经过一系列近似,推导出拉普拉斯算子的阶数与空间无关的解耦分数阶粘滞弹性波动方程。采用中心差分计算时间导数,使用交错网格伪谱法计算空间导数。数值算例表明,新的方程在处理非均匀介质时具有精度高,计算简便的优点。     

节理岩体关键块体稳定的概率分析

基于地下岩体受节理面的控制,节理面的几何和力学参数随机分布,从而导致岩体系统具有高度不确定性,提出以关键块体理论为基础,考虑节理几何和力学参数随机性的岩体开挖可靠度分析方法,并给出了块体稳定的总失效概率评价模型。以澳大利亚阿德莱德地区一铜矿地质条件为例,以节理面倾角、倾向、摩擦系数和黏聚力为随机变量,通过Monte Carlo模拟和概率图方法,进行了岩体可靠度和失效概率的计算。最后,采用条件概率的分析方法,计算了单面滑动块体的总失效概率。计算结果表明,块体沿单面滑动并且出现的概率为11.0%,总的失效概率为3.85%,超过一般岩体工程可允许的风险水平,认为该方法可以作为评价块体可靠性的依据。     

LHS方法在边坡可靠度分析中的应用

Monte Carlo（MC）法在目前边坡可靠度分析中是一种相对精确的方法,应用广泛,受问题限制的影响较小,适应性很强,其误差仅与标准差和样本容量有关。但其精度受随机抽样的可靠性和模拟次数制约,收敛速度慢,影响了实际使用。在极限平衡方法的基础上,用拉丁超立方抽样（Latin hypercube sampling,LHS）方法代替MC法的随机抽样,考虑边坡参数的变异性和相关性进行边坡可靠度分析。讨论了LHS法、MC法中可靠指标的各种计算方法,建议以破坏概率、安全系数均值和标准差作为评价指标。算例显示LHS法较MC法效率上有很大改善：较少的抽样样本就能反映参数的概率分布,可靠度分析收敛快,不需要大量的模拟,因此,值得在边坡可靠度分析中推广应用。也将工程上常用的均匀设计和正交设计用于边坡可靠度分析,结果表明,正交设计结果和中心点法比较接近,而均匀设计得到的结果则是不可靠的。     

二维视电阻率断面的快速最小二乘反演

快速最小二乘反演是以平滑限定的最小二乘方法为基础,是对二维视电阻率断面进行反演的一种方法。反演过程不需要提供初始模型,在首次迭代时使用一均匀介质地下模型作为初始模型,该模型的视电阻率偏导数值可以用解析法得到。在后面的迭代中,使用了拟牛顿法去修改每一次迭代的偏导数矩阵,避免了偏导数矩阵的直接计算,从而减少了计算时间和存储空间。同时运用牛顿矩阵校正技术解最小二乘方程组也减少了大量的计算时间。总之,该方     

岩土力学数值模拟结果的概率评估方法研究

提出了一种用于评估多参数随机变异情况下岩土力学非线性数值模拟结果可靠性的多维高效直接积分型随机分析方法.它首先根据多维积分理论和可靠性分析的直接积分法确定多维随机输入参数的计值点;然后利用非线性数值模拟方法,比如有限元法或有限差分法等,完成所有计值点上的计算任务,据此就可以利用多维高效积分程序计算待评估响应量的前几阶矩(一般包括1～6阶矩);最后利用多种方法,包括曲线拟合法、加权余量法及最大熵法计算响应量的概率分布,并据此算出响应量的概率置信区间,用于定量评估响应量的可靠性.数值算例表明,此法具有精度和计算效率较高的优点.     

青藏铁路冻土路基温度场随机有限元分析

从一阶Taylor展开式入手,结合冻土温度场计算有限元法,推导了冻土路基温度场随机有限元方程及有关计算公式,并对青藏铁路北麓河试验段冻土路基温度场进行了随机有限元分析,结果表明温度标准差与温度场的分布趋势大致相同,在垂直方向上,最大值都出现在路基上部,向下逐渐减小,但两者分布范围略有不同,路基内部标准差的分布范围明显较大,在一定深度处达到均化。     

用改进的JC方法分析三维Hoek-Brown准则的可靠度

选用工程中广泛应用的Ｈｏｅｋ－Ｂｒｏｗｎ强度准则作为极限状态函数,将方程中的六个变量：即主应力分量σ１、σ２、σ３;岩块单轴抗中度σＣ和岩石参数ｍ,ｓ作为其随机变量,采用改进的ＪＣ方法三岩体经度准则的可靠度指标β。由于三维Ｈｏｅｋ－Ｂｒｏｎ准则方程所表现出来的高次非线性和复杂性,文中利用复合函数求导法则直接针对随机变量求解可靠度指标和相应的验算应值,并进行了参数相关及不同概型情况下三维Ｈｏｅｋ－Ｂ     

估计迹长概率分布函数的新方法及其应用

本文提出一种估计迹长概率分布函数的新方法。该方法的优点是不需要有节理在测窗上出露长度的数据, 有效的减少了野外工作量。     

估计迹长概率分布函数的新方法及其应用

本文提出一种估计迹长概率分布函数的新方法。该方法的优点是不需要有节理在测窗上出露长度的数据，有效的减少了野外工作量     

Finite element modelling for evaluation of apparent resistivity over complex structures

The paper presents a computational algorithm designed for efficient modelling of apparent resistivity over complex geological structures, using finite element method. The algorithm can be used to study variations of apparent resistivities using any electrode configuration at any point on the earth’s surface, not necessarily regular. A Schlumberger apparent resistivity sounding curve over a buried anticline, is presented here as an example and compared with the corresponding analytical curve, to demonstrate the correctness of the FEM algorithm. The various potential derivatives required for the computation of apparent resistivities evaluated through different electrode configurations have been obtained by calculating the ‘influence coefficients’ using reciprocal theorems, an approach successfully applied in structural engineering. In essence, a set of self balancing nodal currents, obtained from the appropriate derivative(s) of the shape functions of the elements contributing to the point of observation, is applied as the load vector. The resulting quantities corresponding to the potential distribution in traditional finite element method, then, turn out to be the potential derivatives at the point of observation for different positions of the current electrodes. These are known as influence coefficients. The continuum nature of the domain beyond the region of interest has been modelled by using ‘infinite elements’ across which the potential is assumed to decay exponentially.     

Probabilistic analysis of borehole closure for through-salt well design

Probability levels, in the form of marginal cumulative distribution functions, are determined for the time it takes salt to contact a casing, which penetrates a salt canopy, and the time it takes the casing to yield once salt has contacted the casing, in support of through-salt well design activities required for deep-water, sub-salt environments. The finite-element method coupled with an advanced reliability method is used to perform the analyses. Randomness caused by uncertainties in salt properties, lithostatic stress, drilling-mud pressure, production temperature, and borehole ellipticity is handled by including statistics and probability distributions for each of these random variables. The advanced reliability method takes full account of the random variables and processes without Monte Carlo simulation, by using a method for assessing reliability statistics that computes response probabilities in a direct and efficient manner. This advanced reliability method falls under the general category of fast probability integration schemes.     

Genetic Programming Approach for Predicting Surface Subsidence Induced by Mining

INTRODUCTIONThe study of surface subsidence resulting fromunderground mining holds significance in view ofbeneficial effects on national economy and people’sliving conditions.As is known,a large quantity ofminerals need to be exploited for modernization con-struction.Mining leads to surface subsidence,someunderground engineering and production facilities aredestroyed accordingly,which blocks the developmentof production and retards people’s living standard.To solve this contradiction,su…     

A fully coupled element‐free Galerkin model for hydro‐mechanical analysis of advancement of fluid‐driven fractures in porous media

Hydraulic fracturing (HF) of underground formations has widely been used in different fields of engineering. Despite the technological advances in techniques of in situ HF, the industry uses semi‐analytical tools to design HF treatment. This is due to the complex interaction among various mechanisms involved in this process, so that for thorough simulations of HF operations a fully coupled numerical model is required. In this study, using element‐free Galerkin (EFG) mesh‐less method, a new formulation for numerical modeling of hydraulic fracture propagation in porous media is developed. This numerical approach, which is based on the simultaneous solution of equilibrium and continuity equations, considers the hydro‐mechanical coupling between the crack and its surrounding porous medium. Therefore, the developed EFG model is capable of simulating fluid leak‐off and fluid lag phenomena. To create the discrete equation system, the Galerkin technique is applied, and the essential boundary conditions are imposed via penalty method. Then, the resultant constrained integral equations are discretized in space using EFG shape functions. For temporal discretization, a fully implicit scheme is employed. The final set of algebraic equations that forms a non‐linear equation system is solved using the direct iterative procedure. Modeling of cracks is performed on the basis of linear elastic fracture mechanics, and for this purpose, the so‐called diffraction method is employed. For verification of the model, a number of problems are solved. According to the obtained results, the developed EFG computer program can successfully be applied for simulating the complex process of hydraulic fracture propagation in porous media. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

地下洞穴在孔间电磁波法CT上的反映特征及洞径计算公式

电磁波法CT技术是利用大量的电磁波能量信息,进行专门的反演计算,得到测区内岩土体吸收系数分布规律。与其它方法相比,使用这种方法探查地下洞穴的分布、形态及连通性,分辨率较好、效率较高、空间位置准确。在岩溶发育地区进行工程勘察,采用常规钻探与电磁波法CT成像相结合的方法,可消除工程隐患。目前,对异常的认识和定量解释还停留在看图识字阶段,准确地进行解释是非常困难的。通过模拟计算,得出了地下空洞和充填洞穴在电磁波CT图像上的反映特征及洞径计算公式,经过多个工程的应用和钻探检验,效果较好,对实践具有指导意义。     

Neural network prediction of the reliability of heterogeneous cohesive slopes

The reliability of heterogeneous slopes can be evaluated using a wide range of available probabilistic methods. One of these methods is the random finite element method (RFEM), which combines random field theory with the non‐linear elasto‐plastic finite element slope stability analysis method. The RFEM computes the probability of failure of a slope using the Monte Carlo simulation process. The major drawback of this approach is the intensive computational time required, mainly due to the finite element analysis and the Monte Carlo simulation process. Therefore, a simplified model or solution, which can bypass the computationally intensive and time‐consuming numerical analyses, is desirable. The present study investigates the feasibility of using artificial neural networks (ANNs) to develop such a simplified model. ANNs are well known for their strong capability in mapping the input and output relationship of complex non‐linear systems. The RFEM is used to generate possible solutions and to establish a large database that is used to develop and verify the ANN model. In this paper, multi‐layer perceptrons, which are trained with the back‐propagation algorithm, are used. The results of various performance measures indicate that the developed ANN model has a high degree of accuracy in predicting the reliability of heterogeneous slopes. The developed ANN model is then transformed into relatively simple formulae for direct application in practice. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.