动水压力型滑坡对库水位升降作用的响应以三峡库区树坪滑坡为例

三峡库区涉水型滑坡众多,库水位周期性涨落引起库岸滑坡岩土体物理性质的改变,还使得滑体内渗流场发生变化,进而影响滑坡体稳定性。为研究库水位升降作用对涉水边坡稳定性的影响,基于三峡库区重大涉水滑坡分类,对动水压力型滑坡进行分析。以三峡库区秭归县树坪滑坡为例,利用Geo-Studio软件的SEEP模块及SLOPE分别对滑坡渗流场与稳定性进行计算,分析不同滑体渗透系数及不同库水位升降速率对动水压力型滑坡的影响规律。结果表明:对于动水压力型滑坡,库水位上升过程中,地下水位线有下凹趋势,稳定性系数有所增大; 库水位下降过程中,地下水位线有上凸现象,且稳定性系数明显减小; 库水位升降速率越大,滑体渗透系数越小,库水位变动对滑坡渗流及稳定性影响越明显。     

大型滑坡地下水系统的概念模型以长江三峡库区宝塔滑坡为例

本文以中国长江三峡工程库区大型滑坡宝塔滑坡为例 ,在地质结构研究的基础上 ,尝试通过地下水动力场、水化学场、水温度场和水的环境同位素的调查研究 ,查清地下水补给、径流、排泄条件和地下水随外界因素 (降雨、水库蓄水和人为入渗、排水等 )变化的规律 ,从而建立滑坡地下水系统的概念模型。这既是滑坡的地下水预测和变形预测的必要基础 ,也为滑坡的治理指明了方向。     

库水位涨落条件下不同结构边坡的变形破坏机制分析——以千将坪滑坡和树坪滑坡为例

三峡水库自2003年蓄水后,在长江干流和支流发生了不同程度的边坡变形和破坏.有些变形缓慢并对房屋和道路造成损坏,有些产生高速运动并引发涌浪,造成惨重人员伤亡.本文从库岸边坡的结构着眼,以千将坪滑坡和树坪滑坡为例,通过现场调查、现场长期观测、室内简易模型试验,分析库水位涨落条件下不同结构边坡的变形破坏机制,为库区运营过程...     

储层结构控制下的开发响应特征初探--以双河油田为例

储层结构体现在层次性和拼合性2个方面.双河油田含油层段在地质层次上划分为10级:地层段、油层组、小层、单层、单砂体、成因砂体、成因增量、层系组、层系和纹层,体现了各级次的地质作用.拼合性体现为储层由不同的要素相互镶嵌叠置而成,其中较重要的是结构要素的规模及其空间匹配.基于储层的这种层次性和拼合性,形成了相应的储层剖面和平面预测模型,在区内划分出4类剖面模型样式和6类平面模型样式.不同的模型样式体现了不同的内部结构特征,而这种结构特征影响注水开发过程中的流体流动,进而形成不同的剩余油气分布样式.     

西南岩溶山区复合水动力场滑坡影响模式——以关岭县大寨滑坡为例

岩溶地下水对我国西南岩溶石山地区特大型滑坡频发具有重要影响,因此,岩溶地下水的赋存规律及在其影响下的滑坡成灾模式成为一个亟待研究的科学问题。文章以贵州省关岭县岗乌镇大寨村大寨滑坡为例,基于野外调查,结合水动力场、水化学数据、暴雨数据等进行综合分析,取得以下成果和认识:（1）划分出大寨滑坡区地下分水岭,圈定了影响大寨滑坡的灰岩区和碎屑岩区,面积分别为0.93,0.30 km2;（2）滑坡当日暴雨集中在6—12时,后缘区域岩溶管道水对大寨滑坡滞后暴雨2 h启动起到主要控制作用;（3）滑坡区碎屑岩以及后缘灰岩接受了百年一遇的强降水的入渗补给后,在各自内部形成高压水动力场;在基岩裂隙水、岩溶管道水两种水动力场及岩层自身重力的共同作用下,潜在软弱结构面上的岩层失稳进而发生滑坡。由此建立了基岩裂隙水和岩溶管道水复合水动力场对滑坡的影响模式,并提出一种复合水动力场耦合方法。     

融雪诱发型黄土滑坡活动特征与应急响应模式——以新疆伊犁则克台滑坡为例

2019年4月30日,在新疆的伊犁地区一个高位黄土滑坡复活启动,并远距离掩埋公路和阻塞河道。大约5.04×10⁵ m³黄土体高位滑移剪出冲击铲刮沟道及两侧岸坡。滑坡不定时复活启动机理难以琢磨。本文基于实地详细调查、遥感影像判识、气象数据分析和黄土特征试验等方法,以试图确定黄土滑坡的演变历史、运动过程和复活机理。研究表明,该滑坡曾发生两次大规模滑动破坏,且伴随着坡体地裂缝发展,每年黄土坡体发生不同程度的累积变形破坏。春季温度升高导致积雪快速消融入渗是黄土滑坡变形演化的最重要影响因素,春季融水和暴雨的耦合是控制黄土滑坡发生的根本原因。基于本次灾害发生后成功灾害应急响应过程,提出一种基于早期预警多部门联动的公路灾害应急响应模式。随着区域放牧活动增加和气候变暖加剧,该黄土滑坡将具有极大潜在复活滑动风险。研究可为寒冻区滑坡形成演化和破坏机理提供了新的视野,为服务新疆一带一路区域交通建设具有重要意义。     

青藏高原多年冻土活动层土壤水分对高寒草甸覆盖变化的响应

对青藏高原高寒草甸30%、60%和93%三种覆盖度下,多年冻土活动层的土壤水分随季节变化的观测研究,结果表明:多年冻土活动层土壤水分分布对植被覆盖变化响应强烈.年内不同时期,植被覆盖度为65%和30%的土壤表层20cm深度内水分含量及分布相似,每次降水后30%覆盖度土壤水分的变率略大于65%覆盖度的;而93%覆盖度土壤水分在年内解冻开始到冻结前均小于前两种覆盖类型;植被覆盖度越小,土壤冻结和融化响应时间越早,响应历时也越短;浅层土壤冻结和融化对植被覆盖度的响应程度较强,接近深层土壤冻结和融化对植被覆盖度的响应程度降低.覆盖度为30%和65%土壤水分在整个冻结过程的减少幅度比93%覆盖度土壤大10%～26%,而融化期水分增加幅度更大为1.5%～80%;土壤冻融的相变水量对植被覆盖度变化响应明显,植被覆盖度降低,土壤冻结和融化相变水量增大.由于受植被蒸腾与地表蒸散发和土壤温度梯度的影响,融化期土壤剖面的水分重新分配,总体上呈现水分向剖面上部和底部迁移,剖面中部60～80cm深度左右的土壤出现"干层".     

预应力锚索挡墙在多层顺倾滑坡治理中的应用——以大红山铁矿1~#滑坡为例

边坡病害与坡体的地质条件密切相关,坡体的地质条件不同,决定了边坡具有不同的地质特征,边坡所具有的岩性、构造、水文特征及临空面的组合,定义为高边坡的坡体结构,不同的坡体结构会出现不同的坡体病害,其中,以软硬相间、顺倾层状结构最易产生变形破坏[1]。目前,对边(滑)坡的治理有多种成熟的方法,如抗滑挡墙、抗滑桩、预应力锚索等。预应力锚索因其主动受力的工作原理、施工造价较低、施工工期短、施工安全性好等特点,已在各类建设工程中得到广泛的应用。文章以大红山铁矿1#滑坡治理为例,从滑坡成因分析、治理方案比选、施工工程控制等多个角度对多层顺倾结构滑坡治理,进行了详细分析与介绍。结果表明预应力锚索挡墙对多层顺倾结构类型滑坡有良好的治理效果。     

关键致灾因子对滑坡稳定性的影响——以三峡库区黄莲树、曾家棚滑坡为例

以三峡库区奉节县黄莲树滑坡和曾家棚滑坡的成功临滑预报为例,以地表位移、降雨、地下水、库水位的监测为依据,综合分析研究了监测参数的变动和致灾因子相互作用对滑坡稳定性的影响关系,总结形成了初步的研究成果。本研究成果对滑坡的监测预警预报技术具有重要的理论意义,并且对其它以库水位涨落和降雨为主要致滑因子的滑坡的监测临滑预报具有重要的参考价值和指导意义。     

有限元法分析降雨条件下斜坡稳定性——以邻水县马鞍坪滑坡为例

通过对华蓥市马鞍坪滑坡现有变形监测情况表明,斜坡变形位移与降雨的关系十分密切,马鞍坪滑坡的后部强变形区,斜坡位移与50mm以上持续降雨几乎呈对应关系。研究人员采用工程地质条件分析与有限元分析法相结合,对马鞍坪滑坡进行了滑坡体在降雨条件下饱和一非饱和渗流分析与坡体稳定性分析。分析结果表明,降雨量是华蓥山地区斜坡失稳下滑的主要引发因素,不同雨量决定斜坡演化成滑坡的不同阶段,其影响作用也不近相同。计算结果表明,当日降雨量达到150mm左右且累积降雨量超过300mm的情况下,斜坡土体将出现变形,出现滑坡可能性大。该分析结果为今后华蓥山地区地质灾害监测预警示范中的地质灾害单体预警预报,提供了可靠预警参数。     

Centrifugal model test on a riverine landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir induced by rainfall and water level fluctuation

Frequent soil landslide events are recorded in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, China, making it necessary to investigate the failure mode of such riverside landslides. Geotechnical centrifugal test is considered to be the most realistic laboratory model, which can reconstruct the required geo-stress. In this study, the Liangshuijing landslide in the Three Gorgers Reservoir area is selected for a scaled centrifugal model experiment, and a water pump system is employed to retain the rainfall condition. Using the techniques of digital photography and pore water pressure transducers, water level fluctuation is controlled, and multi-physical data are thus obtained, including the pore water pressure, earth pressure, surface displacement and deep displacement. The analysis results indicate that: Three stages were set in the test (waterflooding stage, rainfall stage and drainage stage). Seven transverse cracks with wide of 1–5 mm appeared during the model test, of which 3 cracks at the toe landslide were caused by reservoir water fluctuation, and the cracks at the middle and rear part were caused by rainfall. During rainfall process, the maximum displacement of landslide model reaches 3 cm. And the maximum deformation of the model exceeds 12 cm at the drainage stage. The failure process of the slope model can be divided into four stages: microcracks appearance and propagation stage, thrust-type failure stage, retrogressive failure stage, and holistic failure stage. When the thrust-type zone caused by rainfall was connected or even overlapped with the retrogressive failure zone caused by the drainage, the landslide would start, which displayed a typical composite failure pattern. The failure mode and deformation mechanism under the coupling actions of water level fluctuation and rainfall are revealed in the model test, which could appropriately guide for the analysis and evaluation of riverside landslides.     

三峡库区浮托减重型滑坡对库水升降的响应规律

三峡大坝自2003年蓄水以来,库区形成大量涉水滑坡。长江三峡库区的浮托减重型滑坡随库水位升降,变形非协调性增加,此类滑坡变形与库水位关系的不明确性,为其监测预警预报工作带来困惑。以木鱼包滑坡为研究对象,通过全自动GPS变形监测系统获取的滑坡监测资料,结合多次的野外考察、15年专业监测和库水位升降等资料进行分析,运用有限元软件Geo-studio进行数值模拟,模拟库水位以不同速率在175~145m间升降下对滑坡稳定性的影响。研究表明:(1)库水位由145m升至175m的过程中,滑坡的稳定系数变化为先减后增再减,库水上升速率越大,前期稳定系数减小的时间段越小,随后稳定系数增加的速率也越快;(2)在库水位由175m下降到145m的过程中,整个稳定系数变化趋势为先减小后增大,呈“V”字形,存在一个最危险水面,不同的库水下降速率对应的最危险水面高度也不一样,库水位以0.4,0.6,0.8,1.0,1.6m/d的速率下降时对应的最危险水位分别在169.8,167.8,162.6,162.0,162.2m左右;(3)木鱼包滑坡作为三峡库区典型的浮托减重性滑坡,在库水位大幅度及周期性升降的影响下,一直保持着蠕滑状态,平均日位移量为0.4mm/d,目前处于基本稳定状态。所得结论对三峡库区浮托减重型滑坡预警预报工作有一定的参考与借鉴意义。     

三峡水库水位变动下的库岸滑坡稳定性评价

水库岸坡滑坡稳定性主要受库水位涨落的影响。由于库区水位变化可概化为二维非稳定流,地下水位变化可采用有限元模拟。三峡水库正常运行时的水位涨落速度在0.6～4.0m/d、高程145～175m之间变化,通过有限元法对库区的马家沟滑坡模拟表明:库水位和滑坡体内的地下水位同步升降,水力梯度很小,因此水位涨落对滑坡的影响主要是浮托力作用。在此条件下,采用Morgenstern-Price法对滑坡稳定性进行计算表明,随着水位上升,滑坡稳定性降低,水位上升到165m时,稳定性达到最小,水位再上升则稳定性增大,当滑坡完全淹没在水下时的稳定性高于未被淹没的情况,滑坡最终的稳定性按最小稳定系数评价。     

Landsliding triggered by reservoir operation: a general conceptual model with a case study at Three Gorges Reservoir

The Three Gorge Reservoir, one of the largest civil engineering projects in human history, dams the Yangtze River to form a 660-km-long and 1.13-km-wide reservoir. Today, although the project has been completed and is in normal operation, the on-going landslide initiation and movement in response to the reservoir operating is one of the main geologic hazards. The Huangtupo (meaning “yellow soil slope” in Chinese) Slope typifies such on-going landslides along the reservoir. Observations from a multi-year monitoring program conducted on this slope indicate that there are multiple slides on the reservoir banks that move episodically into the reservoir and their movements appear to be highly correlated with the initial and seasonal changes in the reservoir pool level. A hydro-mechanical numerical model is constructed to investigate the quantitative links among the episodic movements and the variations in pore water pressure, suction stress, hydrostatic reservoir water loading, and slope self-weight induced by the fluctuating water levels. Modeling results identify regions within the variably saturated slope where significant changes in stress occur during the periods of the initial impoundment that raised water levels from 68 to 135 m and that occur in response to seasonal fluctuations of the reservoir pool level between 145 and 175 m. We find that the rise or decline of reservoir pool level can either increase or decrease the stability of landslide. In general, hydrostatic reservoir water loading has positive correlation with the stability; pore water pressure and suction stress have negative correlation with the stability; and the effects of slope self-weight depend on the dip angle and mechanical properties of sliding surface.     

三峡库区水位变化与花园养鸡厂滑坡变形特征关系

2010年10月三峡库区蓄水至175m,花园养鸡厂滑坡发生了较为强烈的变形。在对新生裂缝详细调查研究、GPS观测及深部位移监测数据分析的基础上,对库水位变化所引起的滑坡变形特征及其成因进行了综合分析。研究结果表明:蓄水后,滑坡前缘因受到加载及库水侵蚀作用,在中前部产生9条NNW向横向张性裂缝,裂缝具有明显的分段性,表现为相似的发育模式。该滑坡属于典型的渐进后退式滑坡,由3个滑块组成,在裂缝SW段伴随拉张和剪切双重作用,反应滑块往SWW向滑动的同时伴随一定程度的右旋滑移,其失稳模式为有多重滑面的牵引破坏模式。在滑体的后缘及左侧变形较小。2007年以来滑坡经历了4次较大的变形,并与库区水位的变化周期相吻合,每次裂缝基本上都是在库区水位短时间内大幅度上升形成的。     

Numerical subarea of sensitive zone of monitoring variable of landslides to fluctuation of water level of Three Gorges Reservoir — a case of Xietan Landslide

In the period of impounding and running of the Three Gorges Reservoir, the sensitive degrees of change of groundwater table and displacement to the fluctuation of water level are different in different parts of landslides induced by the fluctuation of water level (as the case of Xietan Landslide). According to the relationship between different sensitive degrees of monitoring variables (underground water level and displacement) and quantity of monitoring information, the sensitive zones of groundwater table and displacement to the fluctuation of reservoir water level are divided into different degrees by the approach of fuzzy pattern recognition. The result of numerical subarea of sensitive zone of groundwater table and displacement indicates that the middle and front part of the landslide are the main places with groundwater table affected by the fluctuation of water level of reservoir; the variation of horizontal displacement of surficial part of the middle and front part of the landslide is more sensitive to water impounding and sudden fall of water level; and with the increase of elevation and depth of the landslide, the horizontal displacement changes less and less; the change of vertical displacement of surficial parts of the landslide is most sensitive to the fluctuation of water level of Three Gorges Reservoir; and with the increase of depth, the change of vertical displacement become smaller and smaller. By the means of the numerical subarea regulation of Xietan Landslide, the suggestions to the point layout for monitoring the groundwater table and displacement in the landside of Three Gorges Reservoir are put forward.     

Probabilistic forecasting of landslide displacement accounting for epistemic uncertainty: a case study in the Three Gorges Reservoir area,China

Accurate and reliable displacement forecasting plays a key role in landslide early warning. However, due to the epistemic uncertainties associated with landslide systems, errors are unavoidable and sometimes significant in traditional methods of deterministic point forecasting. Transforming traditional point forecasting into probabilistic forecasting is essential for quantifying the associated uncertainties and improving the reliability of landslide displacement forecasting. This paper proposes a hybrid approach based on bootstrap, extreme learning machine (ELM), and artificial neural network (ANN) methods to quantify the associated uncertainties via probabilistic forecasting. The hybrid approach consists of two steps. First, a bootstrap-based ELM is applied to estimate the true regression mean of landslide displacement and the corresponding variance of model uncertainties. Second, an ANN is used to estimate the variance of noise. Reliable prediction intervals (PIs) can be computed by combining the true regression mean, variance of model uncertainty, and variance of noise. The performance of the proposed hybrid approach was validated using monitoring data from the Shuping landslide, Three Gorges Reservoir area, China. The obtained results suggest that the Bootstrap-ELM-ANN approach can be used to perform probabilistic forecasting in the medium term and long term and to quantify the uncertainties associated with landslide displacement forecasting for colluvial landslides with step-like deformation in the Three Gorges Reservoir area.     

水位涨落对库岸滑坡孔隙水压力影响的非饱和渗流分析

以某水库库岸滑坡为工程背景,根据饱和-非饱和渗流控制方程,针对不同滑坡体渗透性和库水位升降速率,研究库水位变化条件下滑坡体内孔隙水压力的动态响应,得到：(1) 水位升降时,在相同的入渗条件下,饱和渗透系数对初始地下水位有明显的影响;增大饱和渗透系数能降低地下水位,使地下水位线变得平缓,滑坡体的动、静水压力减小,有利于稳定;(2) 增加库水位升降速率,地下水位响应滞后变得显著,地下水位线形态整体变陡,滑坡体的动水压力增大,不利于边坡稳定性。     

三峡水库水位波动条件下滑坡抗滑工程效果的数值研究

抗滑桩是三峡库区滑坡治理工程中常用的措施,在三峡水库长期的周期性水位波动条件下,抗滑桩工程效果如何,即是否能够保证滑坡的整体稳定,是目前迫切需要研究的重要课题。选择三峡库区巴东县新县城的谭家坪滑坡次级滑坡-白水沟滑坡为研究对象,在分析工程地质条件和设计资料的基础上,建立二维有限元计算模型,选择合理的岩土力学参数和桩计算参数;利用ANSYS 软件,依据不同的模拟方案,分别模拟分析了滑坡在仅考虑自重、自重加暴雨在水位变化条件下的变形和稳定性状况以及抗滑桩的工程效果,即滑坡在设桩条件下的变形和稳定情况。结果表明：①白水沟滑坡破坏机理为牵引式。在暴雨和水位下降条件下,滑坡稳定性降低;周期性水位变化后,滑坡稳定性逐步下降,最终失稳;②依据自重和暴雨工况,考虑175 m降至145 m水位进行的抗滑桩设计,起到了明显的抗滑效果。③周期性水位波动后,滑坡变形破坏逐步加剧,说明抗滑桩虽然起到了的抗滑作用,但阻滑效果逐步下降。因此,在滑坡抗滑工程设计时应考虑该因素的影响,适当提高安全储备。     

三峡库区千将坪滑坡失稳探讨

千将坪滑坡是三峡水库二期蓄水到139m高程水位期问发生的特大型滑坡,也是三峡库区近年来发生的规模较大的滑坡,受到了多方面的关注.滑体物质组成包括上部为残坡积粘土夹碎石和老滑坡堆积体、下部为沙镇溪组泥质粉砂岩两部分,沿基岩软层顺层下滑.根据滑动特征,可划分为顺层滑动、切层剪出以及滑覆堵江和过江反冲区三个区.本文重点研究了降雨、水库蓄水以及组合因素下滑坡稳定性变化特征.在蓄水前自然状态下,整体稳定系数K=1.18.未蓄水时暴雨状态下,稳定系数K=0.97,与蓄水前自然状态下比较,稳定系数降低20.9%;仅考虑蓄水而未降雨时,滑坡的稳定系数K=0.99,与蓄水前自然状态下比较,稳定系数降低18.3%;在蓄水到134m+强暴雨状态下,稳定系数K=0.93,与蓄水前自然状态下比较,稳定系数降低24.8%.反映了蓄水和降雨二者的组合对滑坡失稳影响是非常明显的.