Snowpack and runoff response to climate change in Owens Valley and Mono Lake watersheds

Precipitation from the Eastern Sierra Nevada watersheds of Owens Lake and Mono Lake is one of the main water sources for Los Angeles’ over 4 million people, and plays a major role in the ecology of Mono Lake and of these watersheds. We use the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model at daily time scale, forced by climate projections from 16 global climate models under greenhouse gas emissions scenarios B1 and A2, to evaluate likely hydrologic responses in these watersheds for 1950–2099. Comparing climate in the latter half of the 20th Century to projections for 2070–2099, we find that all projections indicate continued temperature increases, by 2–5 °C, but differ on precipitation changes, ranging from ?24 % to +56 %. As a result, the fraction of precipitation falling as rain is projected to increase, from a historical 0.19 to a range of 0.26–0.52 (depending on the GCM and emission scenario), leading to earlier timing of the annual hydrograph’s center, by a range of 9–37 days. Snowpack accumulation depends on temperature and even more strongly on precipitation due to the high elevation of these watersheds (reaching 4,000 m), and projected changes for April 1 snow water equivalent range from ?67 % to +9 %. We characterize the watershed’s hydrologic response using variables integrated in space over the entire simulated area and aggregated in time over 30-year periods. We show that from the complex dynamics acting at fine time scales (seasonal and sub-seasonal) simple dynamics emerge at this multi-year time scale. Of particular interest are the dynamic effects of temperature. Warming anticipates hydrograph timing, by raising the fraction of precipitation falling as rain, reducing the volume of snowmelt, and initiating snowmelt earlier. This timing shift results in the depletion of soil moisture in summer, when potential evapotranspiration is highest. Summer evapotranspiration losses are limited by soil moisture availability, and as a result the watershed’s water balance at the annual and longer scales is insensitive to warming. Mean annual runoff changes at base-of-mountain stations are thus strongly determined by precipitation changes.     

陆面模式中土壤湿度影响蒸散参数化方案的评估

本文将四个常见陆面模式CLM3.5（Community Land Model Version 3.5）、Noah_LSM（The Noah Land Surface Model）、VIC（Variable Infiltration Capacity）以及SSiB（The Simplified Simple Biosphere Model）中土壤湿度影响蒸散的参数化方案进行简化,并利用实验观测资料对不同参数化方案进行评估,探究不同陆面模式对土壤湿度与蒸散关系的模拟差异,从而为提高模式的模拟能力提供依据。结果表明,（1）CLM与SSiB中计算土壤湿度影响裸土蒸发的参数化方案较Noah_LSM和VIC更接近真实的物理过程,同时CLM与SSiB模式中土壤湿度对蒸发的影响程度较Noah_LSM和VIC大;而对于下垫面有植被条件下的蒸散而言,CLM中包含了植被光合作用、呼吸作用等生物物理学过程,与实际情况更为接近,并且CLM与SSiB中土壤湿度对植被蒸散的影响程度大于VIC,Noah_LSM最低;（2）根据干旱区、半干旱区、半湿润区以及湿润区各站点的分析可知,CLM、SSiB与Noah_LSM中土壤湿度影响蒸散的参数化方案的拟合效果较VIC好,同时在部分站点CLM与SSiB的参数化方案稍优于Noah_LSM。区域之间比较说明,四个模式对干旱半干旱区的模拟效果明显较半湿润区和湿润区好。     

Reconstructing snowmelt in Idaho’s watershed using historic streamflow records

In recent decades, a warming climate likely has accelerated the timing of spring snowmelt in the western United States; however, records of the timing of snowmelt typically only extend to the 1980s. Stream gage data can lengthen records of the timing of snowmelt back to the early 1900s, enhancing understanding of past, current, and future climate change on snowmelt-dominated watersheds and associated ecosystems. We used snowpack telemetry data and historic streamflow records to test reconstructions of final snowmelt dates using Short Time Fourier Transform (STFT) wavelet analysis of hydrographs. STFT reconstructions tested against known final snowmelt dates over the last ~25 years indicate final snowmelt can be determined within ±4 days ~95% of the time and within ±7 days 100% of the time. Comparison of the STFT method with the center of timing method indicates that in addition to reconstructing actual snowmelt dates (as opposed to dates associated with the center of timing of streamflow), the STFT method may limit interpretation errors associated with changes in discharge not related to snowmelt. Reconstructions of final snowmelt dates in the Idaho, U.S. study area show intervals of early snowmelt (1920s–1930s), later and less variable snowmelt (1940s–1970s), and both variable and early snowmelt (~1985–2007). Early and variable snowmelt during the last ~20 years is associated with large wildfires.     

Comparison of the streamflow sensitivity to aridity index between the Danjiangkou Reservoir basin and Miyun Reservoir basin, China

The central route of China’s South-to-North Water Diversion Project would divert water from the Danjiangkou Reservoir basin (DRB) to Beijing beginning in the year 2014. The current main surface water source for Beijing is the Miyun Reservoir basin (MRB). The observed streamflows into the DRB and the MRB decreased significantly due to climatic variation and human activities from 1960 to 2005. The climate elasticity method is widely used to quantitatively separate the impacts of climatic variation and human activities on streamflow. One of the uncertainties of the method is that the impacts of changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration on streamflow are separated with the assumption that they are independent. However, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration are not totally independent. Aridity index, as the ratio between potential evapotranspiration and precipitation, could be considered as the representative indicator of climatic variation. In this study, the sensitivity of streamflow to aridity index is evaluated to assess the impact of climatic variation on streamflow in the DRB and the MRB. The result shows that streamflow in the MRB is more sensitive to climatic variation than that in the DRB. However, the effective impact of aridity index on streamflow is the product of the sensitivity and the change rate of aridity index. The attribution results show that change in aridity index contributed 68.8 % of the decrease in streamflow in the DRB while it contributed 31.5 % of the decrease in streamflow in the MRB. This indicated that the impact of climatic variation was the main reason of decrease in streamflow in the DRB while human activities such as increasing water consumption and land use change were the main reasons of decreasing streamflow in the MRB.     

Understanding the impacts of climate change and human activities on streamflow: a case study of the Soan River basin,Pakistan

Urmia Lake, as one of the most valuable saline ecosystems in the world, has faced a sharp drop in the water level in recent years. The trend studies of climatic parameters can be effective in identifying the responsible factors and managing this crisis. This research investigated the frequency trend of daily precipitation in the ranges of less than 5 mm, 5–10 mm, 10–15 mm, 15–20 mm, and more than 20 mm in the Urmia Lake basin. The trend was assessed using Mann-Kendall, Spearman Rho and linear regression tests on 60 stations during a period of 30 years (1981 to 2011). The results showed that in all the three tests, the frequency of daily precipitation of less than 5 mm had a significant increase at 1% level. The 5–10 mm range displayed no significant trend, while the 10–15 mm range showed a significantly decreasing trend. The frequency in the 15–20 mm and above 20 mm ranges showed an insignificant falling trend. The analysis also indicated jumps in 1996 and 1999 (almost coinciding with the sharp drop in the lake’s water level). In other words, the frequency trends of daily precipitation with small amounts (as a result, high evapotranspiration loss) were increasing and with large amounts were decreasing. This can be a contributor to reduced run-off and, hence, decreased water entering the lake. The results emphasize the need for changes in the management and consumption of water resources in the basin, in order to adapt to the climatic change.     

Separation of the impact of climate change and human activity on streamflow in the upper and middle reaches of the Taoer River,northeastern China

The Taoer River, a representative ecologically sensitive area in Northeast China, has undergone great climate changes and rapid social developments since 1961. Subsequently, a substantial alteration of the streamflow regime was observed and severe eco-environmental problems were becoming prominent. To provide decision makers the scientific basis for effective resource management and sound future planning, it is crucial to understand and assess the impacts of the climate variability and human activities on streamflow in this region. In this study, we combined an observation-based statistical analysis and physical modeling experiments to address this broad question. The Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope were used to examine the trends and the moving t test was used to identify change points for the streamflow, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration datasets. A statistically significant upward trend (α?=?5 %) was found for annual streamflow. An abrupt change point was identified in 1985 for the basin outlet station at Taonan. Accordingly, the streamflow was divided into baseline and changed period for attribution analysis. To investigate the impacts of climate change and human activities on annual streamflow, we applied a distributed hydrological model and six Budyko-type functions during the two periods. The results indicated that climate change and human activities accounted for about 45 and 55 % of the changes in streamflow, respectively.     

The impact of climate change on the Niger River Basin hydroclimatology, West Africa

Climate change has the potential to reduce water availability in West Africa. This study aims to quantify the expected impact of increased greenhouse gases (GHGs) on hydroclimatology of Niger River Basin (NRB). Boundary data from a general circulation model are used to force a regional climate model, to produce dynamically downscaled hydroclimatic variables of NRB under present-day (PRS) and future climate scenarios. The data were further analyzed to detect changes in atmospheric and surface water balance components and moisture recycling ratio (β). The results show that elevated GHGs (under A1B scenario) would produce a drier climate during the rainy season and a wetter climate during the dry season. A warmer climate over NRB in all months was projected. Highest temperature increase of 3 °C occurs about 14°N in May and June, and the smallest increase of 0.5 °C occurs below 8°N in wet-dry transition period. Evaporation reduces during wet season and increases during the dry periods. Humidity increases by 2 % in the dry season, but decreases by 2–4 % in the wet season. Maximum change in moisture influx of 20.7 % and outflux of 20.6 % occur in June and July, respectively. β is projected to decrease in 75 % of the months with biggest relative change of ?18.4 % in June. The projected decrease in precipitation efficiency (ρ) during the wet season reaches ?20.3 % in June. For PRS run, about 66 % of the available atmospheric moisture in NRB precipitates between June and September, of which around 21 % originates from local evaporation. The result suggests that under enhanced GHGs, local evaporation will contribute less to atmospheric moisture and precipitation over the basin. Projected changes in rainfall and streamflow for Upper Niger and Benue sub-basin are significantly different during the wet season.     

Effects of projected climate change on the hydrology in the Mono Lake Basin, California

The Californian Mono Lake Basin (MLB) is a fragile ecosystem, for which a 1983 ruling carefully balanced water diversions with ecological needs without the consideration of global climate change. The hydroclimatologic response to the impact of projected climatic changes in the MLB has not been comprehensively assessed and is the focus of this study. Downscaled temperature and precipitation projections from 16 Global Climate Models (GCMs), using two emission scenarios (B1 and A2), were used to drive a calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model to assess the effects on streamflow on the two significant inflows to the MLB, Lee Vining and Rush Creeks. For the MLB, the GCM ensemble output suggests significant increases in annual temperature, averaging 2.5 and 4.1 °C for the B1 and A2 emission scenarios, respectively, with concurrent small (1–3 %) decreases in annual precipitation by the end of the century. Annual total evapotranspiration is projected to increase by 10 mm by the end of the century for both emission scenarios. SWAT modeling results suggest a significant hydrologic response in the MLB by the end of the century that includes a) decreases in annual streamflow by 15 % compared to historical conditions b) an advance of the peak snowmelt runoff to 1 month earlier (June to May), c) a decreased (10–15 %) occurrence of ‘wet’ hydrologic years, and d) and more frequent (7–22 %) drought conditions. Ecosystem health and water diversions may be affected by reduced water availability in the MLB by the end of the century.     

Coupling climate change with hydrological dynamic in Qinling Mountains, China

This study intends to disclose orographic effects on climate and climatic impacts on hydrological regimes in Qinling Mountains under global change background. We integrate a meteorological model (MM5 model, PSU/NCAR, 2005) and a hydrological model (SWAT model, 2005) to couple hydrological dynamic with climate change in Qinling Mountains. Models are calibrated and validated based on the simulation of different combined schemes. Following findings were achieved. Firstly, Qinling Mountains dominantly influence climate, and hydrological process in Weihe River and upper Hanjiang River. Results show that Qinling Mountains lead to a strong north–south gradient precipitation distribution over Qinling Mountains due to orographic effects, and it reduces precipitation from 10–25 mm (December) to 55–80 mm (August) in Weihe River basin, and adds 25–50 mm (December) or 65–112 mm (August) in upper Hanjiang River basin; evapotranspiration (ET) decrease of 21% in Weihe River (August) and increase 10.5% in upper Hanjiang River (July). The Qinling Mountains reduce water yields of 23.5% in Weihe River, and decrease of 11.3% in upper Hanjiang River. Secondly, climate change is responsible for the changes of coupling effects of rainfall, land use and cover, river flow and water resources. It shows that average temperature significantly increased, and precipitation substantially reduced which leads to hydrological process changed greatly from 1950 to 2005: temperature increased and precipitation decreased, climate became drier in the past two decades (1980–2005), high levels of precipitation exists in mid-1950, mid-1970, while other studied periods are in low level states. The inter-annual variation in water yield correlates with surface runoff with an R ² value of 0.63 (Weihe River) and 0.87 (upper Hanjiang River). It shows that variation of annual precipitation was smaller than that of seasonal precipitation.     

Impacts of climate variability and human activities on decrease in streamflow in the Qinhe River,China

Under the impacts of climate variability and human activities, there are statistically significant decreasing trends for streamflow in the Yellow River basin, China. Therefore, it is crucial to separate the impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow decrease for better water resources planning and management. In this study, the Qinhe River basin (QRB), a typical sub-basin in the middle reach of the Yellow River, was chosen as the study area to assess the impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow decrease. The trend and breakpoint of observed annual streamflow from 1956 to 2010 were identified by the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test. The results showed that the observed annual streamflow decreased significantly (P?<?0.05) and a breakpoint around 1973 was detected. Therefore, the time series was divided into two periods: “natural period” (before the breakpoint) and “impacted period” (after the breakpoint). The observed annual streamflow decreased by 68.1 mm from 102.3 to 34.2 mm in the two periods. The climate elasticity method and hydrological model were employed to separate the impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow decrease. The results indicated that climate variability was responsible for 54.1 % of the streamflow decrease estimated by the climate elasticity method and 59.3 % estimated by the hydrological modeling method. Therefore, the climate variability was the main driving factor for streamflow decrease in the QRB. Among these driving factors of natural and anthropogenic, decrease in precipitation and increase in water diversion were the two major contributions of streamflow reduction. The finding in this study can serve as a reference for regional water resources management and planning.     

Climate change impacts on the hydrology of a snowmelt driven basin in semiarid Chile

In this paper we present an analysis of the direct impacts of climate change on the hydrology of the upper watersheds (range in elevation from 1,000 to 5,500 m above sea level) of the snowmelt-driven Limarí river basin, located in north-central Chile (30° S, 70° W). A climate-driven hydrology and water resources model was calibrated using meteorological and streamflow observations and later forced by a baseline and two climate change projections (A2, B2) that show an increase in temperature of about 3?C4°C and a reduction in precipitation of 10?C30% with respect to baseline. The results show that annual mean streamflow decreases more than the projected rainfall decrease because a warmer climate also enhances water losses to evapotranspiration. Also in future climate, the seasonal maximum streamflow tends to occur earlier than in current conditions, because of the increase in temperature during spring/summer and the lower snow accumulation in winter.     

Modelling spatially distributed snowmelt and meltwater runoff in a small Arctic catchment with a hydrology land‐surface scheme (WATCLASS)

Abstract

The fully distributed hydrology land‐surface scheme WATCLASS is used to simulate spring snowmelt runoff in a small Arctic basin, Trail Valley Creek, dominated by open tundra and shrub tundra vegetation. The model calculates snowmelt rates from a full surface energy balance, and a three‐layer soil model is used to simulate the infiltration into and the exchange of heat and moisture within the ground. The generated meltwater is delivered to the stream channel network by overland flow, interflow, and baseflow and subsequently routed out of the catchment. Subgrid spatial variability is handled by the model through the use of grouped response units (GRUs). The GRUs in WATCLASS are chosen according to vegetation land cover.

Five spring snowmelt periods with a variety of initial end‐of‐winter snow cover and melt conditions were simulated and compared with observed runoff data. In a second step, the model's ability to simulate spatially variable snow covered area (SCA) within the basin was tested by comparing model predictions to remotely sensed SCA. WATCLASS was able to predict runoff volumes (on average within 15% over five years of modelling) as well as timing of snowmelt and meltwater runoff for open tundra fairly accurately. However, the model underestimated melt in the energetically more complex shrub tundra areas of the basin. Furthermore, the observed high spatial variability of the SCA at a 1‐km resolution was not captured well by the model.

Several recommendations are made to improve model performance in Arctic basins, including a more realistic implementation of the gradual deepening of the thawed layer during the spring, and the use of topographic information in the definition of land cover classes for the GRU approach.     

Impact of projected climate change on hydrologic regime of the Upper Paraguay River basin

We present an assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrologic regime of the 600,000 km² Upper Paraguay River basin, located in central South America based on predictions of 20 Atmospheric/Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). We considered two climate change scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and two 30-years time intervals centered at 2030 and 2070. Projected temperature and precipitation anomalies estimated by the AOGCMs for the study site are spatially downscaled. Time series of projected temperature and precipitation were estimated using the delta change approach. These time series were used as input to a detailed coupled hydrologic-hydraulic model aiming to estimate projected streamflow in climate change scenarios at several control points in the basin. Results show that impacts on streamflow are highly dependent on the AOGCM used to obtain the climate predictions. Patterns of temperature increase persist over the entire year for almost all AOGCMs resulting in an increase in the evapotranspiration rate of the hydrological model. The precipitation anomalies show large dispersion, being projected as either an increase or decrease in precipitation rates. Based on these inputs, results from the coupled hydrologic-hydraulic model show nearly one half of projections as increasing river discharge, and other half as decreasing river discharge. If the mean or median of the predictions is considered, no discernible change in river discharge should be expected, despite the dispersion among results of the AOGCMs that reached +/?10 % in the short horizon and +/? 20 % in the long horizon, at several control points.     

Climate-induced primary productivity change and fishing impacts on the Central North Pacific ecosystem and Hawaii-based pelagic longline fishery

An existing Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) model for the Central North Pacific was updated and modified to focus on the area used by the Hawaii-based pelagic longline fishery. The EwE model was combined with output from a coupled NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory climate and biogeochemical model to investigate the likely ecosystem impacts of fishing and climate-induced primary productivity changes. Four simulations were conducted based on 2 fishing effort and climate scenarios from 2010 to 2100. Modeled small and large phytoplankton biomass decreased by 10 % and 20 % respectively, resulting in a 10 % decline in the total biomass of all higher trophic level groups combined. Climate impacts also affected the Hawaii longline fishery, with a 25–29 % reduction in modeled target species yield. Climate impacts on the ecosystem and the fishery were partially mitigated by a drop in fishing effort. Scenarios with a 50 % reduction in fishing effort partially restored longline target species yield to current levels, and decreased longline non-target species yield. These model results suggest that a further reduction in fishery landings mortality over time than the 2010 level may be necessary to mitigate climate impacts and help sustain yields of commercially preferred fish species targeted by the Hawaii longline fishery through the 21st century.     

作物生长对流域水文过程与区域气候的影响

利用区域气候模式RegCM3以及考虑作物生长过程的耦合模式RegCM3_CERES对东亚区域进行20年模拟,研究作物生长对流域水文过程与区域气候的影响。结果表明：考虑作物生长过程的耦合模式模拟海河流域、松花江流域、珠江流域多年平均降水效果明显改进,在除黑河流域外的各流域模拟的温度负偏差有所减小,其中在海河流域、淮河流域的夏季改进尤为明显。各流域夏季（6、7、8月）月蒸散量最高,其中长江流域、海河流域、淮河流域、珠江流域的夏季月蒸散量基本上在100 mm左右,并且七大流域蒸散发的季节变化趋势跟总降水基本一致。多数流域考虑作物生长过程的耦合模式模拟得出蒸散发减少且进入的水汽增加,导致局地水循环率减小;黑河流域与黄河流域降水有所增加,其他流域均有不同程度的减小。针对长江流域,比较耦合模式RegCM3_CERES与模式RegCM3模拟结果显示,叶面积指数减少1.20 m²/m²,根区土壤湿度增加0.01 m³/m³,进而导致潜热通量下降1.34 W/m²（其中在四川盆地地区减少16.00 W/m²左右）,感热通量增加2.04 W/m²,从而影响到降水和气温。     

Moisture source for the Amazon Basin: a study of contrasting years

The regions where the divergence of vertically integrated water vapor flux, averaged over a season or a year, is positive (negative) are sources (sinks) of moisture for the atmosphere. An aerial river is defined as a stream of strong water vapor flux connecting a source and a sink. Moisture flux, its divergence, and sources and sinks over the tropics of South and Central America and the adjoining Atlantic Ocean are obtained for dry years and for wet years in the Amazon Basin. Results show that the Amazon Basin is a sink region for atmospheric moisture in all seasons and that there are two source regions for the moisture in the basin, one situated in the South Atlantic and the other in the North Atlantic, both located equator-ward of the respective subtropical high-pressure centers. The convergence of moisture increases over the Amazon Basin in austral summer, and at the same time it decreases in the Pacific and Atlantic ITCZs. Box model calculations reveal that the wet years, on the average, present about 55 % more moisture convergence than the dry years in the Amazon Basin. A reduction in the moisture inflow across the eastern and northern boundaries of the basin (at 45°W and at the Equator, respectively) and an increase in the outflow across the southern boundary (at 15°S) lead to dry conditions. The annual mean contribution of moisture convergence to the precipitation over the Amazon Basin is estimated to be 70 %. In the dry years, it lowers to around 50 %. The net convergence of water vapor flux over the basin is a good indicator of the wet or dry condition.     

Systematic Hydrological Evaluation of the Noah-MP Land Surface Model over China

We evaluate water budget components—namely, soil moisture, runoff, evapotranspiration, and terrestrial water storage (TWS)—simulated by the Noah land surface model with multi-parameterization options (Noah-MP) in China, a large geographic domain challenging for hydrological modeling due to poor observational data and a lack of one single parameterization that can fit for complex hydrological processes. By comparing the model simulations with multi-source reference data, we show that Noah-MP can generally reproduce the overall spatiotemporal patterns of runoff and evapotranspiration over six major river basins, with the annual correlation coefficients generally greater than 0.8 and the Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient exceeding 0.5. Among the six basins evaluated, the best model performance is seen over the Huaihe River basin. The temporal trend of the modeled TWS anomalies agrees well with GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) observations, capturing major flood and drought events in different basins. Experiments with 12 selected physical parameterization options show that the runoff parameterization has a stronger impact on the simulated soil moisture–runoff–evapotranspiration relationships than the soil moisture factor for stomatal resistance schemes, a result consistent with previous studies. Overall, Noah-MP driven by GLDAS forcing simulates the hydrological variables well, except for the Songliao basin in northeastern China, likely because this is a transitional region with extensive freeze–thaw activity, while representations of human activities may also help improve the model performance.     

Trend of monthly temperature and daily extreme temperature during 1951–2012 in New Zealand

A new method for calculating evaporation is proposed, using the Penman–Monteith (P-M) model with remote sensing. This paper achieved the effective estimation to daily evapotranspiration in the Ziya river catchment by using the P-M model based on MODIS remote sensing leaf area index and respectively estimated plant transpiration and soil evaporation by using coefficient of soil evaporation. This model divided catchment into seven different sub-regions which are prairie, meadow, grass, shrub, broad-leaved forest, cultivated vegetation, and coniferous forest through thoroughly considering the vegetation diversity. Furthermore, optimizing and calibrating parameters based on each sub-region and analyzing spatio-temporal variation rules of the model main parameters which are coefficient of soil evaporation f and maximum stomatal conductance g _sx . The results indicate that f and g _sx calibrated by model are basically consistent with measured data and have obvious spatio-temporal distribution characteristics. The monthly average evapotranspiration value of simulation is 37.96 mm/mon which is close to the measured value with 33.66 mm/mon and the relative error of simulation results in each subregion are within 11 %, which illustrates that simulated values and measured values fit well and the precision of model is high. In addition, plant transpiration and soil evaporation account for about 84.64 and 15.36 % respectively in total evapotranspiration, which means the difference between values of them is large. What is more, this model can effectively estimate the green water resources in basin and provide effective technological support for water resources estimation.     

Closing the Mackenzie basin water budget,water years 1994/95 to 1996/97

Abstract

A particularly elusive science objective for the Mackenzie Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Study (MAGS) has been to close the atmospheric moisture budget and rationalize it against the surface water budget at annual or even monthly timescales. The task, while not difficult in principle, is complicated by two factors. First is the importance of basin snow‐cover, soil and water‐body storage in the surface water budget. Month‐to‐month changes in these components are frequently greater than the atmospheric flux terms, for example, during spring snowmelt. Furthermore, there is approximately a six‐week lag before local changes are evident in the discharge at the mouth of the basin. Second, the coarse resolution of all of the supporting data may add significant systematic errors. For example, the two radiosonde soundings per day available to the project are unlikely to account adequately for all the moisture generated locally through evapotranspiration during the summer convective season.

This analysis will directly address these two main issues by applying hydrologic and atmospheric computations to assess the storage question, and by using additional soundings at a single site to sample the diurnal signature in atmospheric moisture caused by evapotranspiration. Resulting modifications to the atmospheric moisture and surface water budgets then allow near closure of the MAGS monthly water budget within acceptable error limits.