Prediction of natural processes by the method of adaptive balance of causes

The problem of estimation of the future values of processes is studied as a problem of their adaptation to the known data of observations in the past. The method of adaptive balance of causes (ABC-method) is used for the construction of a dynamic model of the coefficients of influence. This model enables one to compute the current values of these coefficients according to the current correlation matrix determined as a result of reanalysis of the observed processes. We propose an ABC-model with variable coefficients of influence guaranteeing the optimal (from the viewpoint of accuracy) prediction of natural processes and present an example of its application.Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 5, pp. 53–63, September–October, 2004.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to cover date.     

Body size–abundance distributions of nano- and micro-phytoplankton guilds in coastal marine ecosystems

This study focuses on body size–abundance distributions of nano- and micro-phytoplankton guilds in coastal marine areas of the Southern Adriatic–Ionian region. The aim of the study was to evaluate the occurrence of common patterns of body size–abundance distributions in relation to physical, chemical and biological environmental forcing factors and to taxonomic composition of phytoplankton guilds. This paper is based on data collected during four oceanographic cruises carried out seasonally along the Southern Apulian coast (Adriatic and Ionian Seas, SE Italy) as a part of the INTERREG II Italy–Greece Program. The study was performed at 21 stations located on 7 transects perpendicular to the coastline, with 3 stations per transect at a distance of 3, 9 and 15 NM from the coastline. At each station, profiles of the major physical features of the water were determined and water samples were collected for phytoplankton and nutrient analysis. Overall, 320 nano- and micro-phytoplankton taxa were identified, 76% of which at species level, with phytoplankton cells ranging in size from 0.008 to 4697.54 ng. Body size–abundance distributions showed some common features: they were relatively invariant (average similarity 65%) with respect to taxonomic composition (average similarity 32%), right skewed (90%), leptokurtic (77%) and log normal (76%). Moreover, abiotic, biotic and spatial ecosystem components accounted for up to 75% of body size–abundance distribution variation. The results of this study suggest that body size–abundance distributions are an intrinsic property of marine phytoplankton communities, emphasising functional dependence on ecological constraints related to trophic factors and intra-guild coexistence relationships.     

Governance characteristics of large marine ecosystems

The Large Marine Ecosystem (LME) concept is widely established as a large-scale approach to coastal and marine management. LME-oriented activities have focused mainly on natural sciences. Socioeconomic and governance aspects have only recently been receiving increased attention. The 64 LMEs that have been defined appeared to exhibit considerable diversity in characteristics that would be expected to affect governability. This paper explores two questions: (1) Do the LMEs vary widely enough in geopolitical complexity that different approaches to governance may be required for different LMEs? (2) Are there groups of LMEs within which one might take similar approaches to governance? The analysis demonstrates that there is considerable heterogeneity among LMEs with regard to characteristics that would be expected to affect governability. It concludes that a diversity of governance approaches will be required to cope with this heterogeneity. It also appears that LMEs can be grouped according to these characteristics. This suggests that different approaches could be considered for clusters rather than for individual LMEs and that there can be sharing of experience and learning within clusters. The types of relationships between features of LMEs and the ‘best’ approaches to marine governance are discussed in the context of emerging governance ideas.     

Comparative analysis of the experiments aimed at modeling marine ecosystems by using the object-oriented approach

We describe the results of comparative analysis of the numerical experiments carried out by using two different approaches to modeling the biological components of marine ecosystems: “ordinary” and object-oriented. These results demonstrate that the character of the space distribution (patchiness) of the food resource on the lowest level of the trophic chain strongly affects the growth rate of the density of population on the next level and forms specific features of its space distribution which, in fact, affect the productivity of all levels of the trophic chain. The representation of phytoplankton (lowest level) in the model in the form a continuous field of passive admixtures creates more favorable conditions for the nutrition of the organisms consuming this resource. Therefore, in our calculations based on the “ordinary” procedure of modeling of marine ecosystems, the productivity of all its living components is higher than in the case of application of the object-oriented method. The indicated distinctions are especially well visible on the scales of about ten kilometers. Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 1, pp. 26–35, January–February, 2009.     

面向海域管理的海洋资源资产负债表编制框架研究

编制海洋资源资产负债表是海洋生态文明建设的重要举措,然而目前对海洋资源资产负债表的研究相对薄弱,存在关键概念缺乏科学定义、核算方法可行性不足、报表体系设计不完善等问题。本文基于"生态管海、生态用海"的理念,针对现有问题探讨了海洋资源资产负债表编制框架:首先,根据自然资源资产负债表编制的目的和要求,界定了海洋资源资产负债表编制过程中的关键概念,并基于此,进一步考虑海洋资源属性、开发利用特点和当前海域管理重点任务确定了海洋资源资产的核算范围,包括海洋生物资源资产、海洋空间资源资产与海洋矿产资源资产;其次,针对不同海洋资源的特性,提出了具有较高可行性的海洋资源资产实物量和价值量核算方法;再次,根据不同海洋资源的价值特点,确认了资源过度耗减、环境破坏与生态损害三种负债形式并提出了相应的核算方法;最后,基于以上研究,形成了较为完善的海洋资源资产负债表报表体系,以期为海洋资源精细化管理和科学配置提供技术支撑。     

Grain-size parameters of marine sediments

In their average grain-size parameters (K _d , K _dl), recent sediments of the northern Caspian Sea and the Barents Sea shelf are similar, while the sediments of the Norwegian Sea are closer to their counterparts of the World Ocean. Seaward, the content of the subcolloidal fraction increases against the background of the decreasing proportions of coarse-and medium-grained pelite matter.     

A systematic approach towards the identification and protection of vulnerable marine ecosystems

The United Nations General Assembly in 2006 and 2009 adopted resolutions that call for the identification and protection of vulnerable marine ecosystems (VMEs) from significant adverse impacts of bottom fishing. While general criteria have been produced, there are no guidelines or protocols that elaborate on the process from initial identification through to the protection of VMEs. Here, based upon an expert review of existing practices, a 10-step framework is proposed: (1) Comparatively assess potential VME indicator taxa and habitats in a region; (2) determine VME thresholds; (3) consider areas already known for their ecological importance; (4) compile information on the distributions of likely VME taxa and habitats, as well as related environmental data; (5) develop predictive distribution models for VME indicator taxa and habitats; (6) compile known or likely fishing impacts; (7) produce a predicted VME naturalness distribution (areas of low cumulative impacts); (8) identify areas of higher value to user groups; (9) conduct management strategy evaluations to produce trade-off scenarios; (10) review and re-iterate, until spatial management scenarios are developed that fulfil international obligations and regional conservation and management objectives. To date, regional progress has been piecemeal and incremental. The proposed 10-step framework combines these various experiences into a systematic approach.     

Uncertainty and the active adaptive management of marine reserves

Unpredictable environmental fluctuations are a major problem in fisheries. To mitigate these uncertainties, reserves are advocated to help ensure population persistence, reduce population and harvest variance, provide a ‘hedge’ against management failures and increase resilience. Using recent insights from the modelling of marine reserves, we propose a six-step process for establishing and adaptively managing reserves for fishery purposes.     

Aggregate performance in managing marine ecosystems of 53 maritime countries

Fourteen indicators of marine living resource management performance by country, reflecting both their intention to sustainably use the resource within their Exclusive Economic Zones and the effectiveness of their policies, were developed and the performances of 53 maritime countries were assessed. Four rankings of the countries, which jointly account for over 95 percent of the world's marine fisheries landings, are presented here as aggregated scores of the fourteen indicators, using different schemes for weighting the indicators, each reflective of the management preferences identified by the Global Environment Outlook 4 (GEO4) future development scenarios: Market First; Policy First; Security First; and Sustainability First. The resulting rankings differed substantially between the weighting schemes for the top performing countries but less so for the countries performing poorly.     

Optical flow-based method to estimate internal wave parameters from X-band marine radar images

The velocity and direction of internal waves (IWs) are important parameters of the ocean, however, traditional observation methods can only obtain the average parameters of IWs for a single location or large area. Herein, a new method based on optical flow is proposed to derive the phase velocity vectors of IWs from X-band marine radar images. First, the X-band marine radar image sequence is averaged, and ramp correction is used to reduce the attenuation of gray values with increasing radial range. Second, the average propagation direction of the IWs is determined using the two-dimensional Fourier transform of the radar images; two radial profiles along this direction are selected from two adjacent radar images; and then, the average phase velocity of the IWs is estimated from these radial profiles. Third, the averaged radar images are processed via histogram equalization and binarization to reduce the influence of noise on the radar images. Fourth, a weighting factor is determined using the average phase velocity of a reference point; the phase velocities on the wave crest of the IWs are subsequently estimated via the optical flow method. Finally, the proposed method is validated using X-band marine radar image sequences observed on an oil platform in the South China Sea, and the error of the phase velocity is calculated to be 0.000 3–0.073 8 m/s. The application conditions of the proposed method are also discussed using two different types of IW packets.     

Controls on the ratio of mesozooplankton production to primary production in marine ecosystems

An ecosystem model was used to (1) determine the extent to which global trends in the ratio of mesozooplankton production to primary production (referred to herein as the “z-ratio”) can be explained by nutrient enrichment, temperature, and euphotic zone depth, and (2) quantitatively diagnose the mechanisms driving these trends. Equilibrium model solutions were calibrated to observed and empirically derived patterns in phytoplankton biomass and growth rates, mesozooplankton biomass and growth rates, and the fraction of phytoplankton that are large (>5 μm ESD). This constrained several otherwise highly uncertain model parameters. Most notably, half-saturation constants for zooplankton feeding were constrained by the biomass and growth rates of their prey populations, and low zooplankton basal metabolic rates were required to match observations from oligotrophic ecosystems. Calibrated model solutions had no major biases and produced median z-ratios and ranges consistent with estimates. However, much of the variability around the median values in the calibration dataset (72 points) could not be explained. Model results were then compared with an extended global compilation of z-ratio estimates (>10 000 points). This revealed a modest yet significant (r=0.40) increasing trend in z-ratios from values ～0.01–0.04 to ～0.1–0.2 with increasing primary productivity, with the transition from low to high z-ratios occurring at lower primary productivity in cold-water ecosystems. Two mechanisms, both linked to increasing phytoplankton biomass, were responsible: (1) zooplankton gross growth efficiencies increased as their ingestion rates became much greater than basal metabolic rates and (2) the trophic distance between primary producers and mesozooplankton shortened as primary production shifted toward large phytoplankton. Mechanism (1) was most important during the transition from low to moderate productivity ecosystems and mechanism (2) was responsible for a relatively abrupt transition to values >0.1 in high productivity ecosystems. Substantial z-ratio variations overlying these mean trends remained unexplained by these mechanisms. Potential sources of this variability include zooplankton patchiness, unresolved effects of advection and unsteady dynamics, unresolved shifts in mesozooplankton sizes and species, and unresolved aspects of zooplankton bioenergetics. Comparison of the modeled z-ratio patterns and mechanisms diagnosed herein with those obtained using models with expanded biological dynamics embedded in global circulation models will help further elucidate the causes of this variation.     

Implementing the WSSD decision of restoring marine ecosystems by 2015—scientific information support in the public domain

Among the relatively few decisions taken by heads of States and government at the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) in September 2002 in Johannesburg, South Africa, was the time-bound objective to restore degraded stocks to productive levels in its Plan of Implementation. The paper examines the evidence leading to this decision and the broadening of cognitive maps it implies. In particular, it documents how public archiving of research results and other knowledge sources particularly those accessible through the FishBase (www.fishbase.org) and Sea Around Us (www.seaaroundus.org) websites has been effective in enabling citizens in addition to specialist publics to counteract shifting baselines and monitor progress against the WSSD plan. The increased targeting and cost-effectiveness of research efforts and the social benefits of public research spending this implies militates for the extension of such approaches to other groups as an enabling mechanism for WSSD decisions on restoring marine ecosystems by 2015.     

Towards end-to-end models for investigating the effects of climate and fishing in marine ecosystems

End-to-end models that represent ecosystem components from primary producers to top predators, linked through trophic interactions and affected by the abiotic environment, are expected to provide valuable tools for assessing the effects of climate change and fishing on ecosystem dynamics. Here, we review the main process-based approaches used for marine ecosystem modelling, focusing on the extent of the food web modelled, the forcing factors considered, the trophic processes represented, as well as the potential use and further development of the models. We consider models of a subset of the food web, models which represent the first attempts to couple low and high trophic levels, integrated models of the whole ecosystem, and size spectrum models. Comparisons within and among these groups of models highlight the preferential use of functional groups at low trophic levels and species at higher trophic levels and the different ways in which the models account for abiotic processes. The model comparisons also highlight the importance of choosing an appropriate spatial dimension for representing organism dynamics. Many of the reviewed models could be extended by adding components and by ensuring that the full life cycles of species components are represented, but end-to-end models should provide full coverage of ecosystem components, the integration of physical and biological processes at different scales and two-way interactions between ecosystem components. We suggest that this is best achieved by coupling models, but there are very few existing cases where the coupling supports true two-way interaction. The advantages of coupling models are that the extent of discretization and representation can be targeted to the part of the food web being considered, making their development time- and cost-effective. Processes such as predation can be coupled to allow the propagation of forcing factors effects up and down the food web. However, there needs to be a stronger focus on enabling two-way interaction, carefully selecting the key functional groups and species, reconciling different time and space scales and the methods of converting between energy, nutrients and mass.     

Ten recommendations for advancing the assessment and management of non-indigenous species in marine ecosystems

The main objective of recent international legislative measures and policies concerning marine ecosystems is to ensure sustainable environmental management to maintain a good status for marine waters, habitats and resources, with the ultimate target of achieving an integrated ecosystem-based approach to management. Because bioinvasions pose significant threats to marine ecosystems and the goods and services these provide, non-indigenous species (NIS) are included in the more recent legislative documents. A major challenge for the scientific community is to translate the principles of the legislative directives into a realistic, integrated ecosystem-based approach and at the same time provide stakeholders with best practices for managing NIS. The aim of this paper, prepared by members of the Working Group on Introductions and Transfers of Marine Organisms (WGITMO) of the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES), is to provide guidance for the application of NIS related management in the European Union Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD). Ten recommendations, including NIS identification, standardization of sampling and data, indicators, propagule pressure and management issues are considered in this paper. While most of these suggestions were developed to improve the implementation of the MSFD, several may be more widely applicable.     

江苏近岸海域水文气象要素的时空分布特征

2006～2007年在江苏近岸海域进行水文气象要素(气温、湿度、风速风向、波浪、透明度、水色和海水温盐度等)大面观测。数据分析表明,各水文气象要素具有较大的空间分异,四季变化显著。秋季气温明显高于春季,冬季气温较历史数据偏高。整个海域风速较大,风向受季风控制,有效波高与风速之间显著相关。如东附近海域波浪较大,废黄河口波浪较小;春、夏季有效波高较小,而夏、秋季近岸海域波高较小,离岸波高增大。夏季海水透明度最大,平均为2.3m;冬季透明度最小,平均只有0.6m;水色与透明度呈负指数相关。春、秋季水温分布与气温分布基本一致,冬季大致沿等深线分布。射阳河口与长江口为低盐区,辐射沙脊群外缘为高盐区。与20世纪80年代的调查结果相比,出现了一些新特点。这些新的调查成果可为江苏近岸海域的海洋环境保护和可持续发展提供科学依据。