Surface rupture and mechanism of the Bob-Tangol (southeastern Iran) earthquake of 19 December 1977

The Bob-Tangol earthquake of magnitude 5.8 (M_S), occurred in southeastern Iran on 19 December 1977, not far from the region where the 1896 and 1933 earthquakes caused considerable damage and destruction. The shock was associated with a 19.5-km fault break at the surface with a maximum 20 cm right-lateral strike-slip movement along an Early Quaternary geological fault. Results of the field investigation together with the fault plane solution and epicentre location of the main shock are presented here in order to give a seismotectonic view of the event.Surface rupture and fault plane solution of this medium-magnitude earthquake demonstrate a considerable amount of right-lateral movement along a major Early Quaternary high-angle reverse fault. This change in fault behaviour and slip vector may indicate that evidence of Early Quaternary movement cannot always provide a good clue to present-day crustal deformation.     

Characterization of the Heterogeneous Source Model of Intraslab Earthquakes Toward Strong Ground Motion Prediction

We characterize the heterogeneous source slip model of intraslab earthquakes to compare source scaling properties with those of inland crustal and subduction-zone plate-boundary earthquakes. We extracted rupture area (S), total area of asperity (S _a), average slip (D) and average slip on asperity (D _a) of eleven intraslab earthquakes following the procedure proposed by Somerville et al. (Seism Res Lett 70:59?C80, 1999) and proposed the empirical scaling relationship formula of S, S _a, and D for intraslab earthquakes. Under the same seismic moment, an intraslab earthquake has a smaller rupture area and total area of asperity, and smaller average slip than an inland crustal earthquake. The area ratio of asperity area and total rupture area of intraslab earthquakes are similar to those of inland crustal earthquakes. The strong motion generation area (SMGA) scaling of intraslab earthquakes appears self-similar, and those results support the idea the characterized source model of intraslab earthquakes can be modeled in a manner similar to that of inland crustal earthquakes.     

由宽频带辐射能量目录和地震矩目录给出的视应力及其地震学意义

对NEIC宽频带地震辐射能量目录和哈佛矩心矩张量（CMT）目录的比较，给出了关于视应力的一些可能是有意义的结果，尽管目前的结果误差仍很大，可靠性也是有限的，但这种比较所提供的线索却颇值得注意，视应力的计算给出关于地震断层面上非线性动摩擦函数的线索，能量／地震矩之比随地震大小的变化表明，在BK模型框架下，对于走滑型地城,依赖于滑动速度的摩擦似乎占主要地位，而对于非走滑型地震，依赖于位移的摩擦似乎占主要地位，主震和余震的能量／地震矩之比的比较表明，对于走滑型地震，余震的视应力平均地说来低于主震的视应力，而对于非直滑型地震，余震的视应力即有高于主震的也有低于主震的，这对于障碍体和凹凸模式的讨论及模型中地震破裂停止条件的设置可能具有一定的参考意义。     

Aftershock Sequences Modeled with 3-D Stress Heterogeneity and Rate-State Seismicity Equations: Implications for Crustal Stress Estimation

In this paper, we present a model for studying aftershock sequences that integrates Coulomb static stress change analysis, seismicity equations based on rate-state friction nucleation of earthquakes, slip of geometrically complex faults, and fractal-like, spatially heterogeneous models of crustal stress. In addition to modeling instantaneous aftershock seismicity rate patterns with initial clustering on the Coulomb stress increase areas and an approximately 1/t diffusion back to the pre-mainshock background seismicity, the simulations capture previously unmodeled effects. These include production of a significant number of aftershocks in the traditional Coulomb stress shadow zones and temporal changes in aftershock focal mechanism statistics. The occurrence of aftershock stress shadow zones arises from two sources. The first source is spatially heterogeneous initial crustal stress, and the second is slip on geometrically rough faults, which produces localized positive Coulomb stress changes within the traditional stress shadow zones. Temporal changes in simulated aftershock focal mechanisms result in inferred stress rotations that greatly exceed the true stress rotations due to the main shock, even for a moderately strong crust (mean stress 50 MPa) when stress is spatially heterogeneous. This arises from biased sampling of the crustal stress by the synthetic aftershocks due to the non-linear dependence of seismicity rates on stress changes. The model indicates that one cannot use focal mechanism inversion rotations to conclusively demonstrate low crustal strength (≤10 MPa); therefore, studies of crustal strength following a stress perturbation may significantly underestimate the mean crustal stress state for regions with spatially heterogeneous stress.     

2013年芦山MS7.0地震序列断层结构及震源区应力场特征

使用芦山地震序列2013年4月20日至5月20日一个月的地震震相数据和M_S4.0以上地震的波形数据, 通过双差定位方法得到了3398个地震的精定位结果, 利用时间域全波形反演方法得到17个地震的矩张量解。 综合分析地震双差定位结果和芦山地震序列中强地震震源机制解, 发现芦山地震发震构造由主震断层和次级反冲断层组成, 主震断层为一走向北东、 倾向北西、 倾角约为45°的高角度逆冲断层, 次级反冲断层与主震断层走向相同, 倾向相反, 两条断层均未出露地表。 主震和余震震源机制解均为逆冲型, 几乎没有走滑分量。 震源区主压应力方位为北西向, 与发震断层走向近乎垂直。     

张家口-渤海地震构造带的地壳形变研究

华北北部地区的张家口-渤海断裂带是控制现代强震的一条地震构造带。新近纪以来,在区域NEE向主压应力的作用下,新发育了一系列的NE向构造活动带,与张家口-渤海断裂带组成1组共轭的剪切破裂系统,控制了近代强震的发生。文中主要探讨了这条断裂带的地壳形变特征。长趋势GPS地壳形变图像反映了这条活动断裂带相对完整的左旋走滑活动。分期的地壳形变图像揭示了在中强地震前,沿该断裂带出现一系列的NE向梯度异常带,分别指示了唐山-河间、三河-涞水以及延怀-山西地震构造活动带的活动,表明了沿张家口-渤海断裂带出现了中强地震的中期前兆。研究认为,强震前地壳形变揭示的是深部蕴震层的应变活动信息,而强震之后比较杂乱的图像特征体现了盖层的调整运动     

从地质构造探讨地震预测

在地震和地质构造关系上,作者对以下几个问题阐述了自己的看法:（1）地震发生的动力;（2）断层和地震的关系;（3）浅源地震和深源地震;（4）稳定区与活动区;（5）平静期与活动期;（6）垂直地形变与水平地形变.作者认为地壳的水平移动可能是发震的主要动力,因此认为在常发震区经常进行大地测量,观察各地的水平地形变,对中、长期地震预报可能起到有效的作用.     

汶川余震震源机制变化的原因

2008年5月12日,汶川M8.0主震是一个主压应力轴NW-SE的逆倾滑型的地震,而之后的余震震源机制解有的与主震震源机制解一致,有的发生了明显变化,由南至北逐步变成走滑型地震.主震和同主震震源机制解一致的部分余震,在构造应力场直接作用下,龙门山推复体向四川地块逆冲,致使在逆断层的上下盘之间的断层面上产生粘滑而发生逆倾...     

Comprehensive Approaches to Earthquake Prediction

There may be various anomalies from fields of multi-discipline before large earthquakes, including seismological anomalies and the anomalous changes in crustal deformation, underground fluids, geochemistry, geomagnetic fields, ground resistivity, etc. Precursors of a single discipline only reflect the process of earthquake preparation from one aspect. Only when various precursors from multi-disciplined fields are put into a unified process of earthquake preparation can the process be understood and identified comprehensively. The comprehensive methods used in earthquake prediction are outlined in this paper. The relationship that the forthcoming main shock bears with the precursory features such as the time-space distribution, the order of the precursors, etc. is analyzed. Research shows that a few of the main shocks can be predicted with the comprehensive methods to some extent.     

Searching for an Earthquake Precursor—A Case Study of Precursory Swarm as a Real Seismic Pattern Before Major Shocks

A long-range correlation between earthquakes is indicated by some phenomena precursory to strong earthquakes. Most of the major earthquakes show prior seismic activity that in hindsight seems anomalous. The features include changes in regional activity rate and changes in the pattern of small earthquakes, including alignments on unmapped linear features near the (future) main shock. It has long been suggested that large earthquakes are preceded by observable variations in regional seismicity. Studies on seismic precursors preceding large to great earthquakes with M ≥ 7.5 were carried out in the northeast India region bounded by the area 20°–32°N and 88°–100°E using the earthquake database from 1853 to 1988. It is observed that all earthquakes of M ≥ 7.5, including the two great earthquakes of 1897 and 1950, were preceded by abnormally low anomalous seismicity phases some 11–27 years prior to their occurrence. On the other hand, precursory time periods ranged from 440 to 1,768 days for main shocks with M 5.6–6.5 for the period from 1963 to 1988. Furthermore, the 6 August, 1988 main shock of M 7.5 in the Arakan Yoma fold belt was preceded by well-defined patterns of anomalous seismicity that occurred during 1963–1964, about 25.2 years prior to its occurrence. The pattern of anomalous seismicity in the form of earthquake swarms preceding major earthquakes in the northeast India region can be regarded as one of the potential seismic precursors. Database constraints have been the main barrier to searching for this precursor preceding smaller earthquakes, which otherwise might have provided additional information on its existence. The entire exercise indicates that anomalous seismicity preceding major shocks is a common seismic pattern for the northeast India region, and can be employed for long-range earthquake prediction when better quality seismological data sets covering a wide range of magnitudes are available. Anomalous seismic activity is distinguished by a much higher annual frequency of earthquake occurrence than in the preceding normal and the following gap episodes.     

Characterization of Stress Drops on Asperities Estimated from the Heterogeneous Kinematic Slip Model for Strong Motion Prediction for Inland Crustal Earthquakes in Japan

Dense strong motion observation networks provided us with valuable data for studying strong motion generation from large earthquakes. From kinematic waveform inversion of seismic data, the slip distribution on the fault surface of large earthquakes is known to be spatially heterogeneous. Because heterogeneities in the slip and stress drop distributions control the generation of near-source ground motion, it is important to characterize these heterogeneities for past earthquakes in constructing a source model for reliable prediction of strong ground motion. The stress changes during large earthquakes on the faults recently occurring in Japan are estimated from the detailed slip models obtained by the kinematic waveform inversion. The stress drops on and off asperities are summarized on the basis of the stress change distributions obtained here. In this paper, we define the asperity to be a rectangular area whose slip is 1.5 or more times larger than the average slip over the fault according to the previous study for inland crustal earthquakes. The average static stress drops on the asperities of the earthquakes studied here are in the range 6?C23?MPa, whereas those off the asperities are below 3?MPa. We compiled the stress drop on the asperities together with a data set from previous studies of other inland earthquakes in Japan and elsewhere. The static stress drop on the asperity depends on its depth, and we obtained an empirical relationship between the static stress drop and the asperity??s depth. Moreover, surface-breaking asperities seemed to have smaller stress drops than buried asperities. Simple ground motion simulations using the characterized asperity source models reveal that deep asperities generate larger ground motion than shallow asperities, because of the different stress drops of the asperities. These characteristics can be used for advanced source modeling in strong ground motion prediction for inland crustal earthquakes.     

对大灰厂台形变异常的再认识

按照文献[1]的思路和方法,利用历史观测数据,通过建立大灰厂台形变资料动态预估方程,对唐山地震前后两次形变异常重新作了分析。结果表明,1975年前后和1980年前后的两次形变异常情况类似,且具有较好的预估关系,其它年份的资料也有重复的特点。其特点与地震孕育引起的地壳形变关系不大。因此把1975年形变异常作为唐山地震的前兆信息依据不足,两次异常都是由于干扰因素影响所致。     

研究现今地壳运动和强震机理的一种方法

本文阐述了地壳形变与密度变化耦合运动的基本理论,分析了地壳形变与密度变化耦合运动引起的重力时间变化.断层位错运动是地壳形变与密度变化耦合运动的特殊形式.利用重复重力观测数据,选用稳健算法反演研究了1985-2002年滇西地震实验场主要断裂运动的时间分布和强震响应特征,获得了不同类型强震孕育过程图像.     

2010年玉树MS7.1地震同震破裂、余震分布特征及其与构造的关系

针对2010年4月14日玉树发生M_S7.1地震,本文利用InSAR数据给出同震视线向位移确定出的发震断层空间展布,并以该同震位移为约束反演得到主震和最大余震的同震位错分布.结果表明,主震同震位错发生在东玉树断裂,最大余震同震位错发生在西玉树断裂东端;基于位错分布计算了同震库仑应力变化与西部余震集中区地震活动之间的关系,结果反映玉树主震后最为活跃的余震活动可能受控于近东西向的次级断层(走向约为85°),而非玉树主干断裂;玉树断裂带整体呈现为左旋走滑运动,但其具体断层运动形式表现出主干断裂典型走滑运动、走滑断裂间的拉张和逆冲性质的次级运动、次级断裂与主干断裂相互作用下更为复杂的多方向次级断层活动等等不同变形特征,而主震同震破裂与余震空间分布均与这些不同断层变形方式有着密切关系.     

地壳形变前兆及其应变量转换

归纳了自1975年以后华北地区13次中强以上地震的地壳形变短临前兆异常60例。统计地壳形变短临异常与地震的定性关系，发现距震中较远的台站异常出现较早，较近的台站异常出现较晚，地震的震级与异常的空间展布范围成正比，异常往往倾向震中或背向震中。跨断层的位移型形变异常形态有两大类：一类是趋势性异常变化，另一类是高频波动。本文提出了将连续型形变转化为应变的方法。从1989年10月16日大同－阳高61级地　震和1991年3月26日大同－阳高5．8缓地震的实例可见，地震往往发生在高应变区或其附　近，异常量级可达10－6。     

Revealing the deformational anomalies based on GNSS data in relation to the preparation and stress release of large earthquakes

The results of Global Navigational Satellite System (GNSS) observations in the regions of large earthquakes are analyzed. The characteristics of the Earth’s surface deformations before, during, and after the earthquakes are considered. The obtained results demonstrate the presence of anomalous deformations close to the epicenters of the events. Statistical estimates of the anomalous strains and their relationship with measurement errors are obtained. Conclusions are drawn about the probable use of local GNSS networks to assess the risk of the occurrence of strong seismic events.     

1979年3月2日固镇5.0级地震

本文对1979年3月2日固镇5.0级地震的主震参数、震前的地震活动以及地震序列的特征进行了一些研究。结果表明:震前在震中附近区域存在小震活动的空区。空区形成后,小震的频度、b值、应变释放等参量出现了异常变化。一定区域的波速比在震前也有异常显示。同时,临震前于空区的边缘发生了一组具有某些临震信息的地震。文中也对余震序列的概况作了介绍,指出该序列具有机制稳定、b值较低等与一般余震序列不同的特征。     

Hydrologic precursors to earthquakes: A review

This review summarizes reports of anomalous flow rates or pressures of groundwater, oil, or gas that have been interpreted as earthquake precursors. Both increases and decreases of pressure and flow rate have been observed, at distances up to several hundred kilometers from the earthquake epicenter, with precursor times ranging from less than one day to more than one year. Although information that might rule out nontectonic causes does not appear in many published accounts of hydrologic anomalies, several recent studies have critically evaluated the possible influences of barometric pressure, rainfall, and groundwater or oil exploitation. Anomalies preceding the 1976 Tangshan, China, and the 1978 Izu-Oshima-Kinkai, Japan, earthquakes are especially well-documented and worthy of further examination.Among hydrologic precursors, pressure head changes in confined subsurface reservoirs are those most amenable to quantitative interpretation in terms of crustal strain. The response of pressure head to earth tides determines coefficients of proportionality between pressure head and crustal strain. The same coefficients of proportionality should govern the fluid pressure response to any crustal strain field in which fluid flow in the reservoir is unimportant. Water level changes in response to independently recorded tectonic events, such as earthquakes and aseismic fault creep, provide evidence that a calibration based on response to earth tides may be applied to crustal strains of tectonic origin.Several models of earthquake generation predict accelerating stable slip on part of the future rupture plane. If precursory slip has moment less than or equal to that of the impending earthquake, then the coseismic volume strain is an upper bound for precursory volume strain. Although crustal strain can be only crudely estimated from most reported pressure head anomalies, the sizes of many anomalies within 150 kilometers of earthquake epicenters appear consistent with this upper bound. In contrast, water level anomalies at greater epicentral distances appear to be larger than this bound by several orders of magnitude.It is clear that water level monitoring can yield information about the earthquake generation process, but progress higes on better documentation of the data.     

Study on distribution characteristics of strong earthquakes in Sichuan-Yunnan area and their geological tectonic background

Introduction Both Sichuan and Yunnan are provinces with more earthquakes. Based on catalogue of strong earthquakes in China compiled by the Prediction Department of China Earthquake Administration, there are 639 M5.0 earthquakes during 26 B.C.~A.D. 2001. Among them, 475 are M=5.0~5.9 events, 124 are M=6.0~6.9 events, 39 are M=7.0~7.9 events, and one is M=8 event occurred in Sichuan and Yunnan area. Here is one of the areas where seismic activities are most active in China. Sichuan-Yun…     

地壳深部稳定性——震源体破裂机制和摩擦滑动机制的综合研究

本文通过地壳应力测量结果和地震资料的综合分析,对深部应力状态与断层运动的关系作了讨论:进而应用库仑准则,推导了三维应力作用下完整岩体和已有的任意空间方向断层面的失稳条件及其滑动方式的解析表达式.通过建立描述岩体和已有断层稳定性的两个函数————破裂函数 Fm 和摩擦函数 Ff,给出了应用破裂机制和摩擦滑动机制综合分析地壳稳定性和失稳性态的方法:根据这种分析方法并结合华北平原区的水压致裂应力测量资料,以及孔隙压力、大地热流等观测结果,定量研究了本区地壳的稳定问题,计算并图示了地壳内破裂函数沿深度的分布,以及各种走向和倾向断层面上的摩擦函数和剪应力分布;计算中以 Byerlee 定律作为断层运动的约束条件,并考虑了地壳密度纵向非均匀性导致的垂直应力沿深度的非线性增长以及深部超静水压力的异常孔隙压力作用.结果表明,华北平原区地壳失稳性态主要表现为已有断层的滑动;伴有高剪应力降的断层运动的深度范围在8至2.0多公里之间:陡断层稳定性低于缓断层,其运动方式以走滑为主;本区 NNE-NE 走向的陡断层是一组易震断层,其震时错动为右旋走滑;孔隙压力的增长对地壳稳定性有显著的影响;华北平原区深部高异常孔隙压力是地震活动的一种重要背景.