STATISTICAL STUDY ON RELATIONSHIP OF EL NIO EVENTS AND THE HYDROGRAPHY ALONG 137 °E IN SUMMER

Principal component analysis (PCA) used by meteorologists and oceanographers is a powerful tool for the analysis of the spatial and temporal variability of physical fields .This study is aimed at applying " quasi-local PCA for singular factor " to make the cumulative percentage for the first principal component as great as possible , so that the many-dimension problem can be reduced to a single-dimension one , and at combining PCA with stepwise regression analysis to parameterize the relationship between El Nino events and the anomalies in hydrographic factors along 137°E in summer.The results show that the hydrography on 30-50 m levels at 7-9° N along 137° E in summer is very closely correlated with El Nino events because of the thermocline movement caused by enhanced upwelling in this area during El Nino years .     

A method combining numerical analysis and limit equilibrium theory to determine potential slip surfaces in soil slopes

This paper describes a precise method combining numerical analysis and limit equilibrium theory to determine potential slip surfaces in soil slopes. In this method, the direction of the critical slip surface at any point in a slope is determined using the Coulomb’s strength principle and the extremum principle based on the ratio of the shear strength to the shear stress at that point. The ratio, which is considered as an analysis index, can be computed once the stress field of the soil slope is obtained. The critical slip direction at any point in the slope must be the tangential direction of a potential slip surface passing through the point. Therefore, starting from a point on the top of the slope surface or on the horizontal segment outside the slope toe, the increment with a small distance into the slope is used to choose another point and the corresponding slip direction at the point is computed. Connecting all the points used in the computation forms a potential slip surface exiting at the starting point. Then the factor of safety for any potential slip surface can be computed using limit equilibrium method like Spencer method. After factors of safety for all the potential slip surfaces are obtained, the minimum one is the factor of safety for the slope and the corresponding potential slip surface is the critical slip surface of the slope. The proposed method does not need to pre-assume the shape of potential slip surfaces. Thus it is suitable for any shape of slip surfaces. Moreover the method is very simple to be applied. Examples are presented in this paper to illustrate the feasibility of the proposed method programmed in ANSYS software by macro commands.     

Watershed prioritization of Palar sub-watershed based on the morphometric and land use analysis

Morphometric analysis is an indispensable tool for hydrological investigation that involves the development and management of drainage basin. This study characterizes the micro watersheds in the Palar sub-watershed using morphometric analysis and assesses its risk by land use and land cover features in a particular micro watershed. Palar sub-watershed is divided into 6 micro watersheds for prioritization based on morphometric and land use analysis. Several morphometric parameters （linear, shape and relief） are determined from the drainage map; ranks are assigned based on their capacity to induce erodability and degradation. Final ranking is based on the composite index calculated from the sum of the ranks of each morphometric parameter. Morphometric analysis reveals micro watersheds 5 and 6 as most susceptible and 2 and 3 as low susceptible. Land use is mapped using IRS ID LISS III satellite data. The risk in terms of watershed degradation involved to each micro watershed is based on the ranks of each land use feature, obtained from a similar composite index as that of morphometric analysis. Land use analysis shows that micro watersheds 2 and 4 fall under high priority category while 5 and 6 under low priority category. Integration of the morphometric and land use analysis shows that only microwatershed 1 falls under the same category in both analyses. Control measures are suggested to contain degradation depending on its specific land use pattern and morphometric features. This study ean be used to prepare a comprehensive watershed plan for the development or for planning resource conservation strategies, by integrating land use features with the drainage characteristics of the region, in particular for a hill ecosystem as the prioritization is at micro level.     

Modelling sediment delivery using connectivity components at the experimental SPA2 basin,Sicily (Italy)

Sediment delivery ratio can be used as a measure of sediment connectivity and it can be linked to the structural connectivity(morphological unit, slope length, slope steepness, travel time) of a basin and to the functional connectivity(rainfall-runoff processes at morphological unit scale). In this paper the sediment connectivity approach was applied at basin scale both using Sediment Delivery Distributed(SEDD) model, which takes into account the hillslope sediment transport, and sediment yield measurements carried out at SPA2 experimental basin(Sicily, Italy). The expression of the sediment delivery ratio SDRi of a morphological unit was modified for highlighting two components corresponding to the structural(SDR_(L,i)) and functional(SDR_(F,i)) sediment connectivity, respectively. For SPA2 basin the frequency distribution of the travel time of each morphological unit was used to estimate the coefficient βL of the structural component of the sediment delivery ratio of each morphological unit. Then, using the sediment yield measurements carried out at the outlet of the experimental SPA2 basin in the period April 2000-March 2015, the SEDD model was calibrated at event scale for estimating the coefficient βF of the functional component of the sediment delivery ratio. At event scale the developed analysis stated that the functional connectivity is dependent on the magnitude of erosion events. Intermediate and high events, which were characterized by the lowest values of the functional coefficient, determine a more high functional connectivity and are characterized by a more efficient sediment transport along the hillslopes. Finally, at annual scale, the model was calibrated for the period 2000-2015 and relationships for estimating the coefficient βF,a of the functional component of the sediment delivery ratio taking into account the intensity of erosion events occurring in each year were determined. At annual scale, the analysis demonstrated that the functional coefficient was always greater than the landscape coefficient and the sediment connectivity was always controlled by the low values of the functional component.     

A STRATEGY FOR STUDYING SHELF CIRCULATION IN CHINA SEAS——INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY OF SHELF CIRCULATION

Circulation in China Seas has been investigated by Chinese oceanographers in some detail for many years. However, owing to data being sparse and scarce, studies were basically concerned in interseasonal (mainly summer and winter) fluctuations and almost none was in the interannual variability of the circulation in China Seas.It is pointed out that the routine (monthly or bimonthly) hydrographical section data on the continental shelf of China Seas accumulated since 1975, can be used to examine the interannual variability of the shelf circulation. An example is given to show there is interannual variability of shelf circulation in the East China Sea. And what is more, a hypothesis is proposed to describe where the interannual variability comes from and to explain why it is strongly correlated with El Nino events.It is strongly suggested that the interannual variability of the shelf circulation in China Seas be studied, as a strategy, with the routine hydrographical survey, which should be seriously conti     

Impact of regional development on carbon emission: Empirical evidence across countries

Global warming is recently an urgent issue worldwide. The increase of carbon emissions induced by human economic activi- ties has become a major driving force behind global climate change. Thus, as a matter of social responsibility, reasonable carbon con- straints should be implemented to ensure environmental security and sustainable development for every country. Based on a summary of studies that examined the relationship between carbon emissions and regional development, this paper shows that human activity-led carbon emission is caused by the combination of several influencing factors, including population size, income level, and technical pro- gress. Thus, a quantitative model derived from IPAT-ImPACT-Kaya series and STIRPAT models was established. Empirical analysis using multivariate nonlinear regression demonstrated that the origins of growing global carbon emission included the increasing influ- encing elasticity of the population size and the declining negative effect of technical progress. Meanwhile, in context of classification of country groups at different income levels, according to the comparison of fluctuating patterns of the influencing elasticity, technical progress was found as the main factor influencing carbon emission levels in high-income countries, and population size might he the controlling factor in middle-income countries. However, for low-income countries, the nonlinear relationship between carbon emission and its influencing factors was not significant, whereas population growth was identified as an important potential driving force in future carbon emissions. This study can therefore provide a reference for the formulation of policies on carbon constraints, especially to de- velop more efficient carbon mitigating policies for countries at different income levels.     

Sea ice thickness measurement in spring season in Bothnian Bay using an electromagnetic induction instrument

As an important component of the cryosphere,sea ice is very sensitive to the climate change.The study of the sea ice physics needs accurate sea ice thickness.This paper presents an electromagnetic-induction(EM) technique which can be used to measure the sea ice thickness distribution efficiently,and the successful application in Bothnian Bay.Based on the electromagnetic field theory and the electrical properties of sea ice and seawater,EM technique can detect the distance between the instrument and the ice/water interface accurately,than the sea ice thickness is obtained.Contrastive analysis of the apparent conductivity data obtained by EM and the value of drill-hole at same positions allows a construction of a transformable formula of the apparent conductivity to sea ice thickness.The verification of the sea ice thickness calculated by this formula indicates that EM technique is able to get reliable sea ice thickness with average relative error of only 12%.The statistic of all ice thickness profiles shows that the level ice distribution in Bothnian Bay was 0.4-0.6 m.     

Stability analysis unit and spatial distribution pattern of the terrain texture in the northern Shaanxi Loess Plateau

Terrain texture analysis is an important method of digital terrain analysis in quantitative geomorphological research and in the exploration of the spatial heterogeneity and autocorrelation of terrain features. However, a major issue often neglected in previous studies is the calculation unit of the terrain texture, that is, the stability analysis unit. As the test size increases, the derived terrain textures become increasingly similar so that their differences can be ignored. The test size of terrain texture is defined as the stability analysis unit. This study randomly selected 48 areas within the Loess Plateau in northern Shaanxi in China as the study sites and used the gray level co-occurrence matrix to calculate the terrain texture. The stability analysis unit of the terrain texture was then extracted, and its spatial distribution pattern in the Loess Plateau was studiedusing spatial interpolation method. Four terrain texture metrics, i.e., homogeneity, energy, correlation, and contrast, were extracted on the basis of the stability analysis unit, and the spatial variation patterns of these parameters were studied. Results showed that the spatial distribution pattern and the terrain texture metrics reflected a trend of high–low–high from north to south, which correlated with the spatial distribution of the landforms at the Loess Plateau. In addition, the terrain texture measures was significantly correlated with the terrain factors of gully density and slope, and this relationship showed that terrain texture measures based on the stability analysis unit could reflect the basic characteristics of terrain morphology. The stability analysis unit provided a reasonable analytical scale for terrain texture analysis and could be used as a measure of the regional topography to accurately describe basic terrain characteristics.     

Spatial evolution and locational determinants of high-tech industries in Beijing

Using datasets on high-tech industries in Beijing as empirical studies, this paper attempts to interpret spatial shift of high-tech manufacturing firms and to examine the main determinants that have had the greatest effect on this spatial evolution. We aimed at merging these two aspects by using firm level databases in 1996 and 2010. To explain spatial change of the high-tech firms in Beijing, the Kernel density estimation method was used for hotspot analysis and detection by comparing their locations in 1996 and 2010, through which spatial features and their temporal changes could be approximately plotted. Furthermore, to provide quantitative results, Ripley′s K-function was used as an instrument to reveal spatial shift and the dispersion distance of high-tech manufacturing firms in Beijing. By employing a negative binominal regression model, we evaluated the main determinants that have significantly affected the spatial evolution of high-tech manufacturing firms and compared differential influence of these locational factors on overall high-tech firms and each sub-sectors. The empirical analysis shows that high-tech industries in Beijing, in general, have evident agglomeration characteristics, and that the hotspot has shifted from the central city to suburban areas. In combination with the Ripley index, this study concludes that high-tech firms are now more scattered in metropolitan areas of Beijing as compared with 1996. The results of regression model indicate that the firms′ locational decisions are significantly influenced by the spatial planning and regulation policies of the municipal government. In addition, market processes involving transportation accessibility and agglomeration economy have been found to be important in explaining the dynamics of locational variation of high-tech manufacturing firms in Beijing. Research into how markets and the government interact to determine the location of high-tech manufacturing production will be helpful for policymakers to enact effective policies toward a more efficient urban spatial structure.     

New approach for rapid assessment of trophic status of Yellow Sea and East China Sea using easy-to-measure parameters

To realize potential cost savings in coastal monitoring programs and provide timely advice for marine management, there is an urgent need for efficient evaluation tools based on easily measured variables for the rapid and timely assessment of estuarine and offshore eutrophication. In this study, using parallel factor analysis(PARAFAC), principal component analysis(PCA), and discriminant function analysis(DFA) with the trophic index(TRIX) for reference, we developed an approach for rapidly assessing the eutrophication status of coastal waters using easy-to-measure parameters, including chromophoric dissolved organic matter(CDOM), fluorescence excitation–emission matrices, CDOM UV-Vis absorbance, and other water-quality parameters(turbidity, chlorophyll a, and dissolved oxygen). First, we decomposed CDOM excitation-emission matrices(EEMs) by PARAFAC to identify three components. Then, we applied PCA to simplify the complexity of the relationships between the water-quality parameters. Finally, we used the PCA score values as independent variables in DFA to develop a eutrophication assessment model. The developed model yielded classification accuracy rates of 97.1%, 80.5%, 90.3%, and 89.1% for good, moderate, and poor water qualities, and for the overall data sets, respectively. Our results suggest that these easy-to-measure parameters could be used to develop a simple approach for rapid in-situ assessment and monitoring of the eutrophication of estuarine and offshore areas.     

Sustainable Intensification of Cultivated Land Use and Its Influencing Factors at the Farming Household Scale: A Case Study of Shandong Province,China

Promoting the sustainable intensification of cultivated land use(SICL) has become crucial for ensuring a sufficient supply of grain and important agricultural products, as well as for the sustainable use of resources. Taking widely used areas of Shandong Province in China as examples, an analytical scale and level framework for SICL is constructed in this study. It measures the level of SICL through material flow analysis, constructs Tobit models to analyze the influencing factors of SICL at the farming household scale,and analyzes the transition mechanisms of SICL. The results show that the overall level of SICL in Shandong Province is low, and the spatial distribution is uneven. There are relatively more farmers participating in unsustainable intensification than in medium or low levels of SICL, with farmers working at a high level of SICL making up the smallest proportion. The factors that determine the level of SICL at which farmers work vary significantly. More male farmers operate at a low SICL level than female farmers, while females outnumber males at a high SICL level. This is mainly related to the regional distribution of age and population. Meanwhile, with larger cultivated land areas, there is a lower degree of land fragmentation, with a higher level of SICL corresponding to a smaller distance to the nearest town closer within 1–5 km from the town center. We can see the level of SICL and its processes themselves are closely related to time and space scales. Based on the above analysis, it is necessary to clarify the standard processes of SICL to adapt them to local conditions. This includes instructing managers on how to improve resource utilization, increase the sustainable development of cultivated land and establish a comprehensively efficient and functional SICL mechanism. The sustainable intensification of cultivated land use and its specific application in the new era are conducive to enriching the frontier theories and methodology of sustainable development, and are of great significance to the advancement of green agriculture and the decision-making of rural high-quality development.     

Application of wavelet packet in gravity anomaly processing

Based on the advantages of the wavelet to separate regional field and local anomalies in MATLAB environment,a high-precision regional-residual separation was finally realized. Analytical continuation and trend surface analysis are conventional methods for gravity anomaly separation. But the wavelet packet analysis in analyzing gravity data can make the gravity anomaly to be computed at a higher precision. In this paper,wavelet packet method is used to process gravity anomaly data obtained in Laos,and the separation result is good. Daubechies wavelet series has a higher precision in the wavelet packet.     

Mechanism and forecasting methods for severe droughts and floods in Songhua River Basin in China

The influence of various factors, mechanisms, and principles affecting runoff are summarized as periodic law, random law, and basin-wide law. Periodic law is restricted by astronomical factors, random law is restricted by atmospheric circulation, and basin-wide law is restricted by underlying surface. The commensurability method was used to identify the almost period law, the wave method was applied to deducing the random law, and the precursor method was applied in order to forecast runoff magnitude for the current year. These three methods can be used to assess each other and to forecast runoff. The system can also be applied to forecasting wet years, normal years and dry years for a particular year as well as forecasting years when floods with similar characteristics of previous floods, can be expected. Based on hydrological climate data of Baishan (1933-2009) and Nierji (1886-2009) in the Songhua River Basin, the forecasting results for 2010 show that it was a wet year in the Baishan Reservoir, similar to the year of 1995; it was a secondary dry year in the Nierji Reservoir, similar to the year of 1980. The actual water inflow into the Baishan Reservoir was 1.178 × 10 10 m 3 in 2010, which was markedly higher than average inflows, ranking as the second highest in history since records began. The actual water inflow at the Nierji station in 2010 was 9.96 × 10 9 m 3 , which was lower than the average over a period of many years. These results indicate a preliminary conclusion that the methods proposed in this paper have been proved to be reasonable and reliable, which will encourage the application of the chief reporter release system for each basin. This system was also used to forecast inflows for 2011, indicating a secondary wet year for the Baishan Reservoir in 2011, similar to that experienced in 1991. A secondary wet year was also forecast for the Nierji station in 2011, similar to that experienced during 1983. According to the nature of influencing factors, mechanisms and forecasting methods and the service objects, mid-to long-term hydrological forecasting can be divided into two classes:mid-to long-term runoff forecasting, and severe floods and droughts forecasting. The former can be applied to quantitative forecasting of runoff, which has important applications for water release schedules. The latter, i.e., qualitative disaster forecasting, is important for flood control and drought relief. Practical methods for forecasting severe droughts and floods are discussed in this paper.     

Seasonal change of steric sea level in the GIN seas

The Greenland Sea,Iceland Sea,and Norwegian Sea (GIN seas) form the main channel connecting the Arctic Ocean with other Oceans,where significant water and energy exchange take place,and play an important role in global climate change.In this study steric sea level,associated with temperature and salinity,in the GIN seas is examined based on analysis of the monthly temperature and salinity fields from Polar science center Hydrographic Climatology (PHC3.0).A method proposed by Tabata et al.is used to calculate steric sea level,in which,steric sea level change due to thermal expansion and haline contraction is termed as the thermosteric component (TC) and the halosteric component (SC),recpectively.Total steric sea level (TSSL) change is the sum of TC and SC.The study shows that SC is making more contributions than TC to the seasonal change of TSSL in the Greenland Sea,whereas TC contributes more in the Norwegian and the Iceland Seas.Annual variation of TSSL is larger than 50 mm over most regions of the GIN Seas,and can be larger than 200 mm at some locations such as 308 mm at 76.5 N,12.5 E and 246 mm at 77.5 N,17.5 W.     

What Depth Should Deep-Sea Water be Pumped up from in the South China Sea for Medicinal Research?

In this study, seawater was pumped up from 150, 200, 300, 500 and 1000 m in the South China Sea and analyzed to make certain what depth should deep-sea water (DSW) be pumped up for medicinal usage. The pumping depth of DSW was determined on the basis of chemical ingredients. The analyses of inorganic elements and dissolved organic matter (DOM) were performed by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) and ultra performance liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (UPLC-MS) respectively. The raw data were used for hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) and principal component analysis (PCA). The results showed that seawater pumped up from 500 m and 1000 m was similar in their chemical ingredients, and was different from the seawater pumped up from other depths. These results indicated that seawater from more than 500 m depth had relatively stable chemical ingredients and could be used as DSW in the South China Sea.     

Evaluation of Estrogenic Activity and Measurement of EDCs in Wastewater ~ll＇eatlnent Plants

Correlations between estrogenic activity and DOC/UV260 ratio in wastewater treatment processes were investigated to propose a simple, reliable and comprehensive indicator for the presence of estrogenic substances. Contrary to this, when short-term bioassays such as the E-SCREEN, receptor binding and reporter gene expression assays are used for detecting estrogenic activity in the wastewater sample, they require a long time, at least a few days. The major factors contributing to the estrogenic activity were found to be 17β-estradiol （E2） and estrone （El）. A good relationship between the DOC/ UV260 ratio and the concentration of estrogens （El and E2） in the effluent of the activated sludge process was found： the E2 concentration increased as the DOC/UV260 ratio increased while the E1 concentration decreased. The relative estrogenic activity and DOC/UV260 ratio showed a good correlation （R^2 = 0.84） for all sewage samples except the ozonized samples in the sewage treatment plants. This study shows that the estrogenic compounds are hard to be mineralized by the conventional biological processes. Advanced oxidation processes are required to further remove estrogenic substances in the secondary effluent. By analysis of DOC and UV260, the estrogenic activity in the wastewater can be rapidly estimated.     

Modeling the hook depth distribution of pelagic longlining in the equatorial area of Indian Ocean

A survey was conducted in the equatorial area of Indian Ocean for a better understanding of the dynamics of hook depth distribution of pelagic longline fishery.We determined the relationship between hook depth and vertical shear of current coefficiency,wind speed,hook position code,sine of wind angle,sine of angle of attack and weight of messenger weight.We identified the hook depth models by the analysis of covariance with a general linear model.The results showed that the wind effect on the hook depth can be ignored from October to November in the survey area;the surface current effect on the hook depth can be ignored;the equatorial undercurrent is the key factor for the hook depth in Indian Ocean;and there is a negative correlation between the hook depth and vertical shear of current and angle of attack.It was also found that the deeper the hook was set,the higher hook depth shoaling was.The proposed model improves the accuracy of the prediction of hook depth,which can be used to estimate the vertical distribution of pelagic fish in water column.     

The role of chilean mountain areas in time of drought and energy crisis: New pressures and challenges for vulnerable ecosystems

In the summer of 2010/2011 Chile suffered the third most severe energy and water supply crisis in only one decade.This may be surprising as the Andes which accompany the country along 4,200 km are a water tower and could provide more electricity and water than needed.On top of that,it has to be mentioned that Chile also counts with sunny and windy climates and with excellent geothermal energy resources and thus has a huge potential as far as renewable energies are concerned.After analyzing the existing natural conditions,the infrastructure and the present challenges of climate change,it has to be asked in which way Chile can make use of this potential in the near future,considering the legal and political situation and the technological opportunities.It seems that the resources are still hidden in the Andes,and only the key is missing to realize the country’s natural potential.This research has been based on the analysis of existing literature,media,quantitative data from government institutions and other antecedents obtained by the authors in field work done in the South of Chile in 2010.The added value of this compilation lies in the comprehensive perspective,linking the knowledge of climatologists,hydrologists,mountain researchers and energy experts in order to support a sustainable energy and water supply for the future in Chile.From this present research,it can be concluded that Chile necessarilyhas to adopt new energy-related strategies,particularly those aimed at diminishing the strong dependence on traditional sources of energy and establishing new techniques and technologies for generating electricity and utilizing the vast potential that the country is ready to offer,such as that provided by the Andes along 4,200 kilometers.     

Nodes and Field of Tourist Origins to Ancient Village——A Case Study of Huangcheng Village in Shanxi Province of China

Based on Hagget's theory of spatial structure,researches on the nodes and field of tourist origins to Huang-cheng Village in Shanxi Province of China have been explored.Nodal hierarchy structure of tourist origins is analyzed with cluster analysis and the gravity model.And field of tourist origins is analyzed with attraction radius index(R)and geography concentration index(G).In the field analysis,R and G of Huangcheng Village are compared with Xidi Village that is a world heritage located in Huangshan City of Anhui Province in China.According to comparison of loca-tions of two areas,influential factors for field area of Huangcheng Village are identified.It is concluded that:1)cluster analysis and gravity model can be complementary methods to each other for nodal hierarchy structure analysis of tour-ist origins;and 2)as far as location is concerned,the weak intensity effect of tourism resources in the tourist region is a major cause for explaining why tourist origins to Huangcheng Village are mainly its neighboring areas.Moreover,it is suggested that the regional effect of tourist resources should be regarded as a component of destination attractiveness when applying gravity model.