Spatial vent opening probability map of Etna volcano (Sicily, Italy)

We produce a spatial probability map of vent opening (susceptibility map) at Etna, using a statistical analysis of structural features of flank eruptions of the last 2?ky. We exploit a detailed knowledge of the volcano structures, including the modalities of shallow magma transfer deriving from dike and dike-fed fissure eruptions analysis on historical eruptions. Assuming the location of future vents will have the same causal factors as the past eruptions, we converted the geological and structural data in distinct and weighted probability density functions, which were included in a non-homogeneous Poisson process to obtain the susceptibility map. The highest probability of new eruptive vents opening falls within a N-S aligned area passing through the Summit Craters down to about 2,000?m?a.s.l. on the southern flank. Other zones of high probability follow the North-East, East-North-East, West, and South Rifts, the latter reaching low altitudes (～400?m). Less susceptible areas are found around the faults cutting the upper portions of Etna, including the western portion of the Pernicana fault and the northern extent of the Ragalna fault. This structural-based susceptibility map is a crucial step in forecasting lava flow hazards at Etna, providing a support tool for decision makers.     

Probability hazard map for future vent opening at the Campi Flegrei caldera,Italy

The Campi Flegrei caldera is a restless structure affected by general subsidence and ongoing resurgence of its central part. The persistent activity of the system and the explosive character of the volcanism lead to a very high volcanic hazard that, combined with intense urbanization, corresponds to a very high volcanic risk. One of the largest sources of uncertainty in volcanic hazard/risk assessment for Campi Flegrei is the spatial location of the future volcanic activity. This paper presents and discusses a long-term probability hazard map for vent opening in case of renewal of volcanism at the Campi Flegrei caldera, which shows the spatial conditional probability for the next vent opening, given that an eruption occurs. The map has been constructed by building a Bayesian inference scheme merging prior information and past data. The method allows both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties to be evaluated. The probability map of vent opening shows that two areas of relatively high probability are present within the active portion of the caldera, with a probability approximately doubled with respect to the rest of the caldera. The map has an immediate use in evaluating the areas of the caldera prone to the highest volcanic hazard. Furthermore, it represents an important ingredient in addressing the more general problem of quantitative volcanic hazards assessment at the Campi Flegrei caldera.     

Injection and arrest of dykes: implications for volcanic hazards

Dykes are the principal channels through which magma reaches the surface in volcanic eruptions. For this reason dykes observed in the field are commonly assumed to be feeders to lava flows. The actual proportion of dykes reaching the surface is, however, poorly known. In order to develop models for the purpose of estimating volcanic hazard, this proportion must be known. This follows because such models should not only consider the probability of dykes being injected from magma chambers during periods of unrest in the associated volcanoes, but also the probability of the injected dykes being arrested. This paper presents field data on several thousand dykes from Iceland and Tenerife (Canary Islands) indicating that many, and probably most, dykes become arrested at various crustal levels and never reach the surface to feed eruptions. Using the results of analytical and numerical models, it is shown that, for common loading conditions, the stress field in the vicinity of a magma chamber may favour the injection and propagation of dykes while the stress field at a certain distance from the chamber favours dyke arrest. This means that many dykes that are injected from the chamber propagate only for a very limited distance from the chamber to the point where they become arrested. The implication is that during periods of unrest in volcanoes, the probability of volcanic eruption is only a small fraction of the probability of dyke injection from the source magma chamber.     

Magma supply,magma ascent and the style of volcanic eruptions

We propose a new way of looking at the sequence of events leading to different styles of silicic, volcanic eruptions. Small-to-medium sized eruptions, either explosive or effusive, are explained by the ascent of isolated magma batches from mid-crustal magma chambers. We separate magma ascent into four different zones: the Supply System, the Intermediate Storage System, the Transport System and the Eruptive System. Of primary importance is the concept that ascent from the Intermediate Storage System through the Transport System to the Eruptive System first requires the development of a fracture network. Initially, this fracture network allows the ascent of individual magma batches by opening and then closing after their passage. An increase in the complexity of the fracture network with time increases the connectivity of the fractures and hence the ease of upward magma movement. In this model, the dynamics of the ensuing eruptions are controlled entirely by the time spent in the Transport System. Large explosive eruptions require a full interconnectivity of the Transport System from the Intermediate Storage System to the Eruptive System. Moreover, we suggest that a fully connected conduit is rare, develops only under particular conditions, and typically generates catastrophic eruptions during formation. Here we examine two case histories that illustrate the interplay of these processes: Mt St. Helens, USA, between 1980 and 2004, and Mt. Pinatubo, Philippines, in 1991.     

Hazard map for volcanic ballistic impacts at Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico)

During volcanic explosions, volcanic ballistic projectiles (VBP) are frequently ejected. These projectiles represent a threat to people, infrastructure, vegetation, and aircraft due to their high temperatures and impact velocities. In order to protect people adequately, it is necessary to delimit the projectiles’ maximum range within well-defined explosion scenarios likely to occur in a particular volcano. In this study, a general methodology to delimit the hazard zones for VBP during volcanic eruptions is applied to Popocatépetl volcano. Three explosion scenarios with different intensities have been defined based on the past activity of the volcano and parameterized by considering the maximum kinetic energy associated with VBP ejected during previous eruptions. A ballistic model is used to reconstruct the “launching” kinetic energy of VBP observed in the field. In the case of Vulcanian eruptions, the most common type of activity at Popocatépetl, the ballistic model was used in concert with an eruptive model to correlate ballistic range with initial pressure and gas content, parameters that can be estimated by monitoring techniques. The results are validated with field data and video observations of different Vulcanian eruptions at Popocatépetl. For each scenario, the ballistic model is used to calculate the maximum range of VBP under optimum “launching” conditions: ballistic diameter, ejection angle, topography, and wind velocity. Our results are presented in the form of a VBP hazard map with topographic profiles that depict the likely maximum ranges of VBP under explosion scenarios defined specifically for Popocatépetl volcano. The hazard zones shown on the map allow the responsible authorities to plan the definition and mitigation of restricted areas during volcanic crises.     

Seismicity and magma supply rate of the 1998 failed eruption at Iwate volcano,Japan

Iwate volcano, Japan, showed significant volcanic activity including earthquake swarms and volcano inflation from the beginning of 1998. A large earthquake of magnitude 6.1 hit the south-west of the volcano on September 3. Although a 1 km² fumarole field formed, blighting plants on the ridge in the western part of the volcano in the spring of 1999, no magmatic eruptions occurred. We reconcile the spatio-temporal distributions of volcanic pressure sources determined by previously reported studies in which GPS, strain and tilt data from dense geodetic station networks are analyzed (Miura et al. Earth Planet Space 52:1003–1008, 2000; Sato and Hamaguchi J Volcanol Geotherm Res 155:244–262, 2006). We calculate the magma supply rates from their results and compare them with the occurrence rates of volcanic earthquakes. The results show that the magma supply rates are almost constant or even decrease with time while the earthquake occurrence rate increases with time. This contrast in their temporal changes is interpreted to result from stress accumulation in the volcanic edifice caused by constant magma supply without effusion of magma to the surface. We further show that data showing slight acceleration in strain can be best explained by magma ascent at a constant velocity, and that there is no evidence for increased magma buoyancy resulting from gas bubble growth. This consideration supports the interpretation that the magma stayed at 2 km depth and horizontally migrated. These findings relating magma supply rate and seismicity to magma ascent process are clues to understanding why no magmatic eruption occurred at Iwate volcano in 1998.     

Hazard and risk assessment in a complex multi-source volcanic area: the example of the Campania Region, Italy

In order to zone the territory of Campania Region (southern Italy) with regard to the hazard related to future explosive activity of Somma-Vesuvio, Campi Flegrei, and Ischia Island, we drew a multi-source hazard map for tephra and pyroclastic flows. This map, which merges the areas possibly endangered by the three volcanic sources, takes into account a large set of tephra fall and pyroclastic flow events that have occurred in the last 10 ka. In detail, for fall products at Campi Flegrei and Somma-Vesuvio we used the dispersal of past eruption products as deduced by field surveys and their recurrence over the whole area. For pyroclastic flows, the field data were integrated with VEI = 4 simulated events; about 100 simulations sourcing from different points of the area were performed, considering the different probability of vent opening. The spatial recurrence of products of both past eruptions and simulated events was used to assign a weight to the area endangered by the single volcanic sources. The sum of these weights in the areas exposed to the activity of two sources and/or to different kinds of products was used to draw a hazard map, which highlights the spatial trend and the extent of the single equivalent classes at a regional scale. A multi-source risk map was developed for the same areas as the graphic result of the product of volcanic hazard and exposure, assessed in detail from a dasymetric map. The resulting multi-source hazard and risk maps are essential tools for communication among scientists, local authorities, and the public, and may prove highly practical for long-term regional-scale mitigation planning.     

Volcanic history, geologic analysis and map of the Prometheus Patera region on Io

Data from Jupiter's moon Io returned by the Galileo spacecraft have been used to create a geologic map of Prometheus Patera, its associated flow field, and nearby features. We have identified the location of the vent that fed the Prometheus flow field during the Galileo epoch in the north-eastern portion of the main Prometheus flow field. This vent is the probable source of a small sulphur-rich plume. Previous studies suggested that the vent may be atop a tectonic fault but we find that the vent is offset from the putative fault. It is plausible that, in the past, magma exploited the fault to reach the surface at Prometheus Patera, but subsequent magma cooling in the conduit could have caused an obstruction preventing further eruptions from providing significant contributions to the Prometheus flow field. We also speculate on how a new Prometheus plumbing system may be fed by mafic magmas after melt stalls in magma reservoirs during its ascent through the lithosphere from the mantle.     

On the eruptions, deformation, and seismicity of Klyuchevskoy Volcano, Kamchatka in 1986–2005 and the mechanisms of its activity

The eruptions, seismicity, and deformations, the properties of the magma feeding, and the mechanism of the activity of Klyuchevskoy, a giant basaltic volcano in Kamchatka, are considered. Twenty-eight author’s papers on the above subjects, published from 1985 to 2006, are reviewed. The activity of Klyuchevskoy the adventive and summit eruptions of Klyuchevskoy from 1986 to 2005 is described. The seismicity of Klyuchevskoy from 1986 to 2005 and its relation to eruptions are considered. It was inferred from geodetic measurements that the center of the magmatic pressure beneath the volcano moved in the depth range from 3 to 25 km during the period from 1979 to 2005. Based on previously developed models and observations from 1986 to 2005, the main properties of the Klyuchevskoy magma feeding system and the magma ascent in five major parts of the system are described and characterized: near the top of the plunging Pacific plate (with a depth of approximately 160 km), in the asthenosphere (160 to 40 km), in the region of the intermediate magma chamber where the magmas coming from below are accumulated (40 to 20 km), in the crust (20 to 5 km), and in the upper part of the system (from a depth of 5 km under the volcanic edifice to the crater at an altitude of 4.75 km). A comparison between the outputs from the summit and adventive eruptions on Klyuchevskoy as functions of time for the period from 1978 to 2005 shows that the probability of adventive eruptions should increase in the future.     

Role of carbon dioxide in the dynamics of magma ascent in explosive eruptions

 The role of carbon dioxide in the dynamics of magma ascent in explosive eruptions is investigated by means of numerical modeling. The model is steady, one-dimensional, and isothermal; it calculates the separated flow of gas and a homogeneous mixture of liquid magma and crystals. The magma properties are calculated on the basis of magma composition and crystal content and are allowed to change along the conduit due to pressure decrease and gas exsolution. The effect of the presence of a two-component (water + carbon dioxide) exsolving gas phase is investigated by performing a parametric study on the CO₂/(H₂O+CO₂) ratio, which is allowed to vary from 0 to 0.5 at either constant total volatile or constant water content. The relatively insoluble carbon dioxide component plays an important role in the location of the volatile-saturation and magma-fragmentation levels and in the distribution of the flow variables in the volcanic conduit. In detail, the results show that an increase of the proportion of carbon dioxide produces a decrease of the mass flow rate, pressure, and exit mixture density, and an increase of the exit gas volume fraction and depth of the fragmentation level. A relevant result is the different role played by water and carbon dioxide in the eruption dynamics; an increasing amount of water produces an increase of the mass flow rate, and an increasing amount of carbon dioxide produces a decrease. Even small amounts of carbon dioxide have major consequences on the eruption dynamics, implying that the multicomponent nature of the volcanic gas must be taken into account in the prediction of the eruption scenario and the forecasting of volcanic hazard. Received: 6 March 1998 / Accepted: 28 October 1998     

Origin and ascent history of unusually crystal-rich alkaline basaltic magmas from the western Pannonian Basin

The last eruptions of the monogenetic Bakony-Balaton Highland Volcanic Field (western Pannonian Basin, Hungary) produced unusually crystal- and xenolith-rich alkaline basalts which are unique among the alkaline basalts of the Carpathian–Pannonian Region. Similar alkaline basalts are only rarely known in other volcanic fields of the world. These special basaltic magmas fed the eruptions of two closely located volcanic centres: the Bondoró-hegy and the Füzes-tó scoria cone. Their uncommon enrichment in diverse crystals produced unique rock textures and modified original magma compositions (13.1–14.2 wt.% MgO, 459–657 ppm Cr, and 455–564 ppm Ni contents). Detailed mineral-scale textural and chemical analyses revealed that the Bondoró-hegy and Füzes-tó alkaline basaltic magmas have a complex ascent history, and that most of their minerals (～30 vol.% of the rocks) represent foreign crystals derived from different levels of the underlying lithosphere. The most abundant xenocrysts, olivine, orthopyroxene, clinopyroxene, and spinel, were incorporated from different regions and rock types of the subcontinental lithospheric mantle. Megacrysts of clinopyroxene and spinel could have originated from pegmatitic veins/sills which probably represent magmas crystallized near the crust–mantle boundary. Green clinopyroxene xenocrysts could have been derived from lower crustal mafic granulites. Minerals that crystallized in situ from the alkaline basaltic melts (olivine with Cr-spinel inclusions, clinopyroxene, plagioclase, and Fe–Ti oxides) are only represented by microphenocrysts and overgrowths on the foreign crystals. The vast amount of peridotitic (most common) and mafic granulitic materials indicates a highly effective interaction between the ascending magmas and wall rocks at lithospheric mantle and lower crustal levels. However, fragments from the middle and upper crust are absent from the studied basalts, suggesting a change in the style (and possibly rate) of magma ascent in the crust. These xenocryst- and xenolith-rich basalts yield divers tools for estimating magma ascent rate that is important for hazard forecasting in monogenetic volcanic fields. According to the estimated ascent rates, the Bondoró-hegy and Füzes-tó alkaline basaltic magmas could have reached the surface within hours to few days, similarly to the estimates for other eruptive centres in the Pannonian Basin which were fed by “normal” (crystal and xenoliths poor) alkaline basalts.     

A methodology for the evaluation of long-term volcanic risk from pyroclastic flows in Campi Flegrei (Italy)

The volcanological history of Campi Flegrei suggests that the most frequent eruptions are characterized by the emplacement of pyroclastic flow and surge deposits erupted from different vents scattered over a 150-km² caldera. The evaluation of volcanic risk in volcanic fields is complex because of the lack of a central vent. To approach this problem, we subdivided the entire area of Campi Flegrei into a regular grid and evaluated the relative spatial probability of opening of vents based on geological, geophysical and geochemical data. We evaluated the volcanic risk caused by pyroclastic flows based on the formula proposed by UNESCO (1972), R=H×V×Va, where H is the hazard, V is the vulnerability and Va is the value of the elements at risk. The product H×V was obtained by performing simulations of type eruptions centered in each cell of the grid. The simulation is based on the energy cone scheme proposed by Sheridan and Malin [J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 17 (1983) 187–202], hypothesizing a column collapse height of 100 m for eruptions of VEI=3 and 300 m for eruptions of VEI=4 with a slope angle of 6°. Each simulation has been given the relative probability value associated with the corresponding cell. We made use of the GIS software ArcView 3.2 to evaluate the intersection between the energy cone and the topography. The superposition of the areas invaded by pyroclastic flows (124 simulations for VEI=3 and 37 for VEI=4) was used to obtain the relative hazard map of the area. The relative volcanic risk map is obtained by superimposing the urbanization maps.     

Persistent activity and violent strombolian eruptions at Vesuvius between 1631 and 1944

During the period 1631–1944, Vesuvius was in persistent activity with alternating mild strombolian explosions, quiet effusive eruptions, and violent strombolian eruptions. The major difference between the predominant style of activity and the violent strombolian stages is the effusion rate. The lava effusion rate during major eruptions was in the range 20–100 m³/s, higher than during mild activity and quiet effusion (0.1–1 m³/s). The products erupted during the mild activity and major paroxysms have different degree of crystallization. Highly porphyritic lava flows are slowly erupted during years-long period of mild activity. This activity is fed by a magma accumulating at shallow depth within the volcanic edifice. Conversely, during the major paroxysms, a fast lava flow precedes the eruption of a volatile-rich, crystal-poor magma. We show that the more energetic eruptions are fed by episodic, multiple arrival of discrete batches of magma rising faster and not degassing during the ascent. The rapidly ascending magma pushes up the liquid residing in the shallow reservoir and eventually reaches the surface with its full complement of volatiles, producing kilometer-high lava fountains. Rapid drainage of the shallow reservoir occasionally caused small caldera collapses. The major eruptions act to unplug the upper part of the feeding system, erupting the cooling and crystallizing magma. This pattern of activity lasted for 313 y, but with a progressive decrease in the number of more energetic eruptions. As a consequence, a cooling plug blocked the volcano until it eventually prevented the eruption of new magma. The yearly probability of having at least one violent strombolian eruption has decreased from 0.12 to 0.10 from 1944 to 2007, but episodic seismic crises since 1979 may be indicative of new episodic intrusions of magma batches.     

Scoria cone formation through a violent Strombolian eruption: Irao Volcano, SW Japan

Scoria cones are common volcanic features and are thought to most commonly develop through the deposition of ballistics produced by gentle Strombolian eruptions and the outward sliding of talus. However, some historic scoria cones have been observed to form with phases of more energetic violent Strombolian eruptions (e.g., the 1943–1952 eruption of Parícutin, central Mexico; the 1975 eruption of Tolbachik, Kamchatka), maintaining volcanic plumes several kilometers in height, sometimes simultaneous with active effusive lava flows. Geologic evidence shows that violent Strombolian eruptions during cone formation may be more common than is generally perceived, and therefore it is important to obtain additional insights about such eruptions to better assess volcanic hazards. We studied Irao Volcano, the largest basaltic monogenetic volcano in the Abu Monogenetic Volcano Group, SW Japan. The geologic features of this volcano are consistent with a violent Strombolian eruption, including voluminous ash and fine lapilli beds (on order of 10^?1 km³ DRE) with simultaneous scoria cone formation and lava effusion from the base of the cone. The characteristics of the volcanic products suggest that the rate of magma ascent decreased gradually throughout the eruption and that less explosive Strombolian eruptions increased in frequency during the later stages of activity. During the eruption sequence, the chemical composition of the magma became more differentiated. A new K–Ar age determination for phlogopite crystallized within basalt dates the formation of Irao Volcano at 0.4?±?0.05 Ma.     

A statistical method linking geological and historical eruption time series for volcanic hazard estimations: Applications to active polygenetic volcanoes

The probabilistic analysis of volcanic eruption time series is an essential step for the assessment of volcanic hazard and risk. Such series describe complex processes involving different types of eruptions over different time scales. A statistical method linking geological and historical eruption time series is proposed for calculating the probabilities of future eruptions. The first step of the analysis is to characterize the eruptions by their magnitudes. As is the case in most natural phenomena, lower magnitude events are more frequent, and the behavior of the eruption series may be biased by such events. On the other hand, eruptive series are commonly studied using conventional statistics and treated as homogeneous Poisson processes. However, time-dependent series, or sequences including rare or extreme events, represented by very few data of large eruptions require special methods of analysis, such as the extreme-value theory applied to non-homogeneous Poisson processes. Here we propose a general methodology for analyzing such processes attempting to obtain better estimates of the volcanic hazard. This is done in three steps: Firstly, the historical eruptive series is complemented with the available geological eruption data. The linking of these series is done assuming an inverse relationship between the eruption magnitudes and the occurrence rate of each magnitude class. Secondly, we perform a Weibull analysis of the distribution of repose time between successive eruptions. Thirdly, the linked eruption series are analyzed as a non-homogeneous Poisson process with a generalized Pareto distribution as intensity function. As an application, the method is tested on the eruption series of five active polygenetic Mexican volcanoes: Colima, Citlaltépetl, Nevado de Toluca, Popocatépetl and El Chichón, to obtain hazard estimates.     

Volcanic conduit failure as a trigger to magma fragmentation

In the assessment of volcanic risk, it is often assumed that magma ascending at a slow rate will erupt effusively, whereas magma ascending at fast rate will lead to an explosive eruption. Mechanistically viewed, this assessment is supported by the notion that the viscoelastic nature of magma (i.e., the ability of magma to relax at an applied strain rate), linked via the gradient of flow pressure (related to discharge rate), controls the eruption style. In such an analysis, the physical interactions between the magma and the conduit wall are commonly, to a first order, neglected. Yet, during ascent, magma must force its way through the volcanic edifice/structure, whose presence and form may greatly affect the stress field through which the magma is trying to ascend. Here, we demonstrate that fracturing of the conduit wall via flow pressure releases an elastic shock resulting in fracturing of the viscous magma itself. We find that magma fragmentation occurred at strain rates seven orders of magnitude slower than theoretically anticipated from the applied axial strain rate. Our conclusion, that the discharge rate cannot provide a reliable indication of ascending magma rheology without knowledge of conduit wall stability, has important ramifications for volcanic hazard assessment. New numerical simulations are now needed in order to integrate magma/conduit interaction into eruption models.     

BET_VH: a probabilistic tool for long-term volcanic hazard assessment

In this paper, we illustrate a Bayesian Event Tree to estimate Volcanic Hazard (BET_VH). The procedure enables us to calculate the probability of any kind of long-term hazardous event for which we are interested, accounting for the intrinsic stochastic nature of volcanic eruptions and our limited knowledge regarding related processes. For the input, the code incorporates results from numerical models simulating the impact of hazardous volcanic phenomena on an area and data from the eruptive history. For the output, the code provides a wide and exhaustive set of spatiotemporal probabilities of different events; these probabilities are estimated by means of a Bayesian approach that allows all uncertainties to be properly accounted for. The code is able to deal with many eruptive settings simultaneously, weighting each with its own probability of occurrence. In a companion paper, we give a detailed example of application of this tool to the Campi Flegrei caldera, in order to estimate the hazard from tephra fall.     

Vent conditions for expected eruptions at Vesuvius

Determining consistent sets of vent conditions for next expected eruptions at Vesuvius is crucial for the simulation of the sub-aerial processes originating the volcanic hazard and the eruption impact. Here we refer to the expected eruptive scales and conditions defined in the frame of the EC Exploris project, and simulate the dynamics of magma ascent along the volcanic conduit for sub-steady phases of next eruptions characterized by intensities of the Violent Strombolian (VS), Sub-Plinian 2 (SP2), and Sub-Plinian 1 (SP1) scale. Sets of conditions for the simulations are determined on the basis of the bulk of knowledge on the past history of Vesuvius [Cioni, R., Bertagnini, A., Santacroce, R., Andronico, D., Explosive activity and eruption scenarios at Somma–Vesuvius (Italy): towards a new classification scheme. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, this issue.]. Volatile contents (H₂O and CO₂) are parameterized in order to account for the uncertainty in their expected amounts for a next eruption. In all cases the flow in the conduit is found to be choked, with velocities at the conduit exit or vent corresponding to the sonic velocity in the two-phase non-equilibrium magmatic mixture. Conduit diameters and vent mixture densities are found to display minimum overlapping between the different eruptive scales, while exit gas and particle velocities, as well as vent pressures, largely overlap. Vent diameters vary from as low as about 5 m for VS eruptions, to 35–55 m for the most violent SP1 eruption scale. Vent pressures can be as low as less than 1 MPa for the lowest volatile content employed of 2 wt.% H₂O and no CO₂, to 7–8 MPa for highest volatile contents of 5 wt.% H₂O and 2 wt.% CO₂ and large eruptive scales. Gas and particle velocities at the vent range from 100–250 m/s, with a tendency to decrease, and to increase the mechanical decoupling between the phases, with increasing eruptive scale. Except for velocities, all relevant vent quantities are more sensitive to the volatile content of the discharged magma for the highest eruptive scales considered.     

Long-term multi-hazard assessment for El Misti volcano (Peru)

We propose a long-term probabilistic multi-hazard assessment for El Misti Volcano, a composite cone located <20 km from Arequipa. The second largest Peruvian city is a rapidly expanding economic centre and is classified by UNESCO as World Heritage. We apply the Bayesian Event Tree code for Volcanic Hazard (BET_VH) to produce probabilistic hazard maps for the predominant volcanic phenomena that may affect c.900,000 people living around the volcano. The methodology accounts for the natural variability displayed by volcanoes in their eruptive behaviour, such as different types/sizes of eruptions and possible vent locations. For this purpose, we treat probabilistically several model runs for some of the main hazardous phenomena (lahars, pyroclastic density currents (PDCs), tephra fall and ballistic ejecta) and data from past eruptions at El Misti (tephra fall, PDCs and lahars) and at other volcanoes (PDCs). The hazard maps, although neglecting possible interactions among phenomena or cascade effects, have been produced with a homogeneous method and refer to a common time window of 1 year. The probability maps reveal that only the north and east suburbs of Arequipa are exposed to all volcanic threats except for ballistic ejecta, which are limited to the uninhabited but touristic summit cone. The probability for pyroclastic density currents reaching recently expanding urban areas and the city along ravines is around 0.05 %/year, similar to the probability obtained for roof-critical tephra loading during the rainy season. Lahars represent by far the most probable threat (around 10 %/year) because at least four radial drainage channels can convey them approximately 20 km away from the volcano across the entire city area in heavy rain episodes, even without eruption. The Río Chili Valley represents the major concern to city safety owing to the probable cascading effect of combined threats: PDCs and rockslides, dammed lake break-outs and subsequent lahars or floods. Although this study does not intend to replace the current El Misti hazard map, the quantitative results of this probabilistic multi-hazard assessment can be incorporated into a multi-risk analysis, to support decision makers in any future improvement of the current hazard evaluation, such as further land-use planning and possible emergency management.