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1.
Some previous global and regional studies have indicated teleconnection between the extreme phases of the Southern Oscillation (SO) and Turkish climate and hydrologic variables; however, they failed to suggest a strong correlation structure. In this study, categorised Southern Oscillation index (SOI) and Multivariate ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) index (MEI) series were used to examine the far‐reaching effects of the SO on temperature, precipitation and streamflow patterns in Turkey. These SO indicators were categorised into five subgroups according to their empirical distributions. Correlations between the categorised SO indicators and three analysis variables were computed using the Spearman's rho from lag‐0 to lag‐4. Significance of calculated correlations was tested at the 0·01 level for station‐based analysis and at the 0·05 level for regional analysis. Temperature records demonstrated significant correlations with the categorised SOI and MEI in nearly half of the entire stations. For some categories, precipitation and streamflow were found to be correlated with the SO indicators in some stations mainly in western Turkey. Regional analyses of temperature and precipitation revealed a clear and strong correlation structure with the categorised SO indicators on a large portion of Turkey. This was not concluded by the earlier pertinent studies. Besides, this study showed that significant correlations were obtained not only for the SO extreme phases (namely, El Nino and La Nina) but also for neutral and moderate phases of the SO. Plausible explanations for the observed teleconnection are presented. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.

利用我国气象台站观测资料和再分析格点数据,诊断研究了前期春季(4-5月份)北大西洋涛动(North Atlantic Oscillation,NAO)和南半球环状模(Southern Annular Mode,SAM)在不同位相配置下对我国南方夏季降水异常变化的协同影响作用.分析结果表明,在剔除ENSO最强信号影响后,我国南方夏季降水异常分布显著地依赖于前期春季两个较为独立的年际变率主模态(NAO和SAM)位相的不同配置,即降水异常型主要表现为两个因子单独作用的叠加效果.当前春SAM正位相偏强而NAO负位相偏强时,二者的影响呈现协同正效应,我国南方夏季(6-7月份)降水表现为全区正异常,特别在长江中下游及其以南附近地区最为显著;反之,当前春SAM呈偏强的负位相而NAO偏强的正位相配置时,二者的影响呈现协同负效应,对应我国夏季长江中下游地区降水表现为显著负异常.对其可能的影响机理研究表明,在SAM与NAO位相相反情况下,二者均会通过海气相互作用过程影响到热带大西洋北部海温的异常变化,进而形成协同作用,增强北大西洋海温三极子模态异常信号,从而通过欧亚大陆的遥相关波列对东亚夏季风和我国南方降水产生显著影响.相比之下,当SAM与NAO同位相时,可能表现为抵消效应,不利于北大西洋海温三极子发展,从而削弱对我国南方夏季降水的影响,此方面还有待进一步研究.

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3.
The Middle East region, where arid and semi‐arid regions occupy most of the land, is extremely vulnerable to any natural or anthropogenic reductions in available water resources. Much of the observed interannual‐decadal variability in Middle Eastern streamflow is physically linked to a large‐scale atmospheric circulation patterns such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In this work, the relationship between the NAO index and the seasonal and annual streamflows in the west of Iran was statistically examined during the last four decades. The correlations were constructed for two scenarios (with and without time lag). The associations between the annual and seasonal streamflows and the simultaneous NAO index were found to be poor and insignificant. The possibility of streamflow forecasting was also explored, and the results of lag correlations revealed that streamflow responses at the NAO signal with two and three seasons delays. The highest Spearman correlation coefficient of 0.379 was found between the spring NAO index and the autumn streamflow series at Taghsimab station, indicating that roughly 14% of the variance in the streamflow series is associated with NAO forcing. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
Monitoring of the fluctuations of groundwater storage is particularly important in arid and semi-arid regions where water scarcity brings about various challenges. Remote sensing data and techniques play a preponderant role in developing solutions to environmental problems. The launch of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites has eased the remote monitoring and evaluation of groundwater resources with an unprecedented precision over large scales. Within the scope of the current study, the latest release (RL06) of GRACE mass concentrations (Mascons) from Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) dataset as well as Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) models of Noah and Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) were used to provide Groundwater Storage Anomalies (GWSA) over Turkey. The temporal interactions of the estimated GWSA with the climatic variables of precipitation and temperature (derived from the reanalysis datasets of CHELSA [Climatologies at High resolution for the Earth's Land Surface Areas] and FLDAS [the Famine Early Warning Systems Network Land Data Assimilation System], respectively) were investigated statistically. The results suggest that there is a descending trend (from 2003 to 2016) for Terrestrial Water Storage Anomalies (TWSA) and GWSA over Turkey with a total loss of 11 and 6 cm of water, respectively. The statistical analysis results also indicate that the monthly variations of GWSA over Turkey are highly correlated with precipitation and temperature at 2-month lag. The analysis of the climatology (long-term) values of monthly GWSA, precipitation and temperature also revealed high agreement between the variables.  相似文献   

5.
Abstract

There is increasing concern that flood risk will be exacerbated in Antalya, Turkey as a result of global-warming-induced, more frequent and intensive, heavy rainfalls. In this paper, first, trends in extreme rainfall indices in the Antalya region were analysed using daily rainfall data. All stations in the study area showed statistically significant increasing trends for at least one extreme rainfall index. Extreme rainfall datasets for current (1970–1989) and future periods (2080–2099) were then constructed for frequency analysis using the peaks-over-threshold method. Frequency analysis of extreme rainfall data was performed using generalized Pareto distribution for current and future periods in order to estimate rainfall intensities for various return periods. Rainfall intensities for the future period were found to increase by up to 23% more than the current period. This study contributed to better understanding of climate change effects on extreme rainfalls in Antalya, Turkey.  相似文献   

6.
Stream bank erosion rates measured over a two-year period on a moorland and a forested stream in the Institute of Hydrology's Balquhidder Paired Catchments in central Scotland were compared. Bank erosion rates are generally higher on the mainstream of the moorland catchment and highest in wintger on both streams. Bank erosion is correlated with the incidence of frost: minimum temperatures measured on stream banks of the forested stream were an average of 3·7°C higher than on stream banks both outside the forest and on the moorland stream. This makes the incidence of frost on forested stream banks half as frequent. Volumes of material eroded from the mainstreams were combined with bulk density measurements and it is estimated that erosion of the mainstream banks is contributing 1·5 and 7·3 per cent of the sediment yield of the forested and moorland catchments, respectively. Analysis of the vertical distribution of erosion on the banks of both streams suggests an undercutting mechanism which is more pronounced in the moorland stream. The influence of trees on bank erosion and possible implications for the management of forest streams are discussed. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
This study investigated the influence of climatic variables on the spatio-temporal variation of vegetation growth using normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data and climate data from 2000 to 2013 in the Northeast China Transect. Partial correlation and linear regression methods were applied to quantify the response of the growing season NDVI to climatic variables. Gradient analysis was used to investigate how the response changes across the precipitation gradient over the transect. The results show that, at the spatial scale, NDVI increases with precipitation in grassland, and the spatial sensitivity is 0.001/mm. At the temporal scale, grassland NDVI is less correlated with precipitation in wet areas where precipitation exceeds a threshold of 250 mm. The temporal sensitivity of grassland NDVI to precipitation is 0.0003–0.0006/mm. Positive correlations between NDVI and temperature dominate in forest areas, and forest NDVI is sensitive to temperature by 0.06–0.12/°C.  相似文献   

8.
The homogeneity of newly compiled 212 precipitation records in Turkey for the period 1973‐2002 was checked by the Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT) and Pettitt Test. Stations were considered inhomogeneous if at least one of the tests rejects the homogeneity. As a result, 43 out of 212 stations were found to be inhomogeneous. In addition, the previously detected Southern Oscillation (SO)‐related precipitation anomalies by the authors were quantified at each station using the gamma distribution. The observed SO‐related shifts in the median precipitation amounts expressed as gamma percentiles may be considered as a typical SO response of that station. The results of this study confirm the wet responses of Turkish precipitations to El Nino events, whereas those for La Nina events seem to be masked by sampling variations within the study period. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

9.
The Kula volcanic field in Western Turkey comprises about 80 cinder cones and associated basaltic lava flows of Quaternary age. Based on geomorphological criteria and K-Ar dating, three eruption phases, β2–β4, were distinguished in previous studies. Human footprints in ash deposits document that the early inhabitants of Anatolia were affected by the volcanic eruptions, but the age of the footprints has been poorly constrained. Here we use 3He and 10Be exposure dating of olivine phenocrysts and quartz-bearing xenoliths to determine the age of the youngest lava flows and cinder cones. In the western part of the volcanic field, two basalt samples from a 15-km-long block lava flow yielded 3He ages of 1.5 ± 0.3 ka and 2.5 ± 0.4 ka, respectively, with the latter being in good agreement with a 10Be age of 2.4 ± 0.3 ka for an augen gneiss xenolith from the same flow. A few kilometers farther north, a metasedimentary xenolith from the top of the cinder cone Çakallar Tepe gave a 10Be age of 11.2 ± 1.1 ka, which dates the last eruption of this cone and also the human footprints in the related ash deposits. In the center of the volcanic field, a basalt sample and a metasedimentary xenolith from another cinder cone gave consistent 3He and 10Be ages of 2.6 ± 0.4 ka and 2.6 ± 0.3 ka, respectively. Two β4 lava flows in the central and eastern part of the volcanic province yielded 3He ages of 3.3 ± 0.4 ka and 0.9 ± 0.2 ka, respectively. Finally, a relatively well-preserved β3 flow gave a 3He age of ∼13 ka. Taken together, our results demonstrate that the penultimate eruption phase β3 in the Kula volcanic field continued until ∼11 ka, whereas the youngest phase β4 started less than four thousand years ago and may continue in the future.  相似文献   

10.
The west watershed of Mirror Lake in the White Mountains of New Hampshire contains several terraces that are at different altitudes and have different geologic compositions. The lowest terrace (FSE) has 5 m of sand overlying 9 m of till. The two next successively higher terraces (FS2 and FS1) consist entirely of sand and have maximum thicknesses of about 7 m. A fourth, and highest, terrace (FS3) lies in the north‐west watershed directly adjacent to the west watershed. This highest terrace has 2 m of sand overlying 8 m of till. All terraces overlie fractured crystalline bedrock. Numerical models of hypothetical settings simulating ground‐water flow in a mountainside indicated that the presence of a terrace can cause local ground‐water flow cells to develop, and that the flow patterns differ based on the geologic composition of the terrace. For example, more ground water moves from the bedrock to the glacial deposits beneath terraces consisting completely of sand than beneath terraces that have sand underlain by till. Field data from Mirror Lake watersheds corroborate the numerical experiments. The geology of the terraces also affects how the stream draining the west watershed interacts with ground water. The stream turns part way down the mountainside and passes between the two sand terraces, essentially transecting the movement of ground water down the valley side. Transects of water‐table wells were installed across the stream's riparian zone above, between, and below the sand terraces. Head data from these wells indicated that the stream gains ground water on both sides above and below the sand terraces. However, where it flows between the sand terraces the stream gains ground water on its uphill side and loses water on its downhill side. Biogeochemical processes in the riparian zone of the flow‐through reach have resulted in anoxic ground water beneath the lower sand terrace. Results of this study indicate that it is useful to understand patterns of ground‐water flow in order to fully understand the flow and chemical characteristics of both ground water and surface water in mountainous terrain. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
The Three Gorges Dam is the world's largest capacity hydropower station located in the Hubei province along the Yangtze River in China, which began operations in 2003. The dam also functions to store and regulate the downstream releases of water in order to provide flood control and navigational support in addition to hydropower generation. Flow regulation is particularly important for alleviating the impacts of low- and high-flow events during the summer rainy season (June, July, and August). The impact of dam operations on summer flows is the focus of this work. Naturalized flows are modelled using a canonical correlation analysis and covariates of subbasin-scale precipitation resulting in good model skill with an average correlation of 0.92. The model is then used to estimate natural flows in the period after dam operation. A comparison between modelled and gauged streamflow post 2003 is made and the impact of the dam on downstream flow is assessed. Streamflow variability is found to be strongly related to rainfall variability. An analysis of regional streamflow variability across the Yangtze River Basin showed a mode of spatially negatively correlated variability between the upper and lower basin areas. The Three Gorges Dam likely mitigated the occurrence of high-flow events at Yichang station located near the dam. However, the high flow at the remaining stations in the lower reach is not noticeably alleviated due to the diminishing influence of the dam on distant downstream flows and the impact of the lakes downstream of the dam that act to attenuate flows. Three types of flow regime changes between naturalized and observed flows were defined and used to assess the changes in the occurrence of high- and low-flow events resulting from dam operations.  相似文献   

12.
The recent destructive earthquake(MS 7.4) of 17 August 1999 in the Gulf of Izmitin north-west Turkey was not a surprise, neither forits location, large magnitude or for the damage itcaused. Other, equally large magnitude earthquakeshave occurred in the past in the region but we havechosen to present in this paper the earthquake of 10July 1894 because it is one of the two large events tostrike the Gulf of Izmit in the last 105 years, and inmany respects similar to the recent earthquake of 17August 1999 in size, location, and effects.  相似文献   

13.
The North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) exhibited a marked eastward shift in the mid-1970 s. Observations show that the extreme weather events in Europe have emerged frequently in the past decades. In this paper, based upon the daily NAO index, we have calculated the frequency of in-situ NAO events in winter during 1950-2011 by defining the Eastern-type NAO(ENAO) and Western-type NAO(WNAO) events according to its position at the east(west) of 10°W. Then, the composites of the blocking frequency, temperature and precipitation anomalies for different types of NAO events are performed. Results show that the frequency of Euro-Atlantic blocking events is distributed along the northwest-southeast(southwest-northeast) direction for the negative(positive) phase. Two blocking action centers in Greenland and European continent are observed during the negative phase while one blocking action center over south Europe is seen for the positive phase. The action center of blocking events tends to shift eastward as the NAO is shifted toward the European continent. Moreover, the eastern-type negative phase(ENAO) events are followed by a sharp decline of surface air temperature over Europe(especially in central, east, and south Europe), which have a wider and stronger impact on the weather over European continent than the western-type negative phase(WNAO) events do. A double- branched structure of positive precipitation anomalies is seen for the negative phase event, besides strong positive precipitation anomalies over south Europe for ENAO event. The eastern-type and western-type positive phase(ENAO+ and WNAO+) can lead to warming over Europe. A single-branched positive precipitation anomaly dominant in central and north Europe is seen for positive phase events.  相似文献   

14.
Catchments in the Loess Plateau have been under the influence of human activities for centuries. In the last four decades, soil conservation measures have accelerated and intensified. These measures were designed to reduce soil erosion, improve agricultural productivity, and enhance environmental quality. It is important to evaluate the effects of these measures on hydrology in order to develop sustainable catchment management plans in the region. This study evaluated changes in stream flow data for four selected catchments in the Loess Plateau following large‐scale soil conservation measures. The non‐parametric Mann–Kendall test was used to identify trends in annual stream flow and the results showed significant downward trends in three of the four catchments. The Pettitt test indicated that a change point occurred in 1978 in these three catchments. Annual precipitation in all the catchments showed no significant trend during the period of record. Comparison of daily flow duration curves for two 20‐year periods (1957–1978) and (1979–2003) showed significant changes in stream flow regime. Reduction in most percentile flows varied between 20 and 45%, and the reduction in low flows was greatest. Overall, the reductions in daily flow were increasing with time, with significant changes occurring in the 1990s. However, it is not clear whether these catchments have seen the full effects of the soil conservation measures, so the results of this study might underestimate the final impact of soil conservation on stream flow regime. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
Little is known about the spatial and temporal variability of the stable isotopic composition of precipitation in the North Atlantic and its relationship to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and anthropogenic climate change. The islands of the Azores archipelago are uniquely positioned in the middle of the North Atlantic Ocean to address this knowledge gap. A survey of spatial and temporal variability of the stable isotope composition of precipitation in Azores is discussed using newly presented analyses along with Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation data. The collected precipitation samples yield a new local meteoric water line (δ2H = 7.1 * δ18O + 8.46) for the Azores region and the North Atlantic Ocean. The annual isotopic mean of precipitation shows a small range for the unweighted and precipitation mass‐weighted δ18O‐H2O values. Results show an inverse relation between the monthly δ18O‐H2O and the amount of precipitation, which increases in elevation and into the interior of the island. Higher amounts of precipitation (from convective storm systems) do not correspond to the most depleted values of stable isotopes in precipitation. Precipitation shows an orographic effect with depleted δ18O‐H2O values related to the Rayleigh effect. Monthly δ18O‐H2O values for individual precipitation sampling stations show little relationship to air temperature. Results show a local source of moisture during the summer with the characteristics of the first vapour condensate. The stable isotope composition of precipitation is strongly correlated to the NAO index, and δ18O‐H2O values show a statistically significantly trend towards enrichment since 1962 coincident with the increased air temperature and relative humidity due to climate change. Results are in line with observations of increasing sea surface temperature and relative humidity.  相似文献   

16.
Stream ecosystems can be dramatically altered by dam-building activities of North American beaver (Castor canadensis). The extent to which beavers’ ecosystem engineering alters riverscapes is driven by the density, longevity, and size (i.e. height and length) of the dams constructed. In comparison to the relative ubiquity of beaver dams on the landscape, there is a scarcity of data describing dam heights. We collected data describing dam height and dam condition (i.e. damaged or intact) of 500 beaver dams via rapid field survey, differentiating between primary and secondary dams and associating each dam with a beaver dam complex. With these data, we examined the influence of beaver dam type (primary/secondary), drainage area, streamflow, stream power, valley bottom width, and HUC12 watershed on beaver dam height with linear regression and the probability that a beaver dam was damaged with logistic regression. On average, primary dams were 0.46 m taller than secondary dams; 15% of observed dams were primary and 85% secondary. Dam type accounted for 21% of dam height variation (p <0.0001). Slope (p = 0.0107), discharge (p = 0.0029), and drainage area (p = 0.0399) also affected dam height, but each accounted for less than 3% of dam height variation. The average number of dams in a dam complex was 6.1 (SD ± 4.5) and ranged from 1 to 21. The watershed a beaver dam was located in accounted for the most variability (17.8%) in the probability that a beaver dam was damaged, which was greater than the variability explained by any multiple logistic regression model. These results indicate that temporally dynamic variables are important influencers of dam longevity and that beaver dam ecology is a primary factor influencing beaver dam height. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

17.
The M w=9.3 megathrust earthquake of December 26, 2004 off the coast of Sumatra in the Indian Ocean generated a catastrophic tsunami that caused widespread damage in coastal areas and left more than 226,000 people dead or missing. The Sumatra tsunami was accurately recorded by a large number of tide gauges throughout the world's oceans. This paper examines the amplitudes, frequencies and wave train structure of tsunami waves recorded by tide gauges located more than 20,000 km from the source area along the Pacific and Atlantic coasts of North America.  相似文献   

18.
This paper draws on recent optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating to evaluate the long‐held assumption that dust accumulation rates in the Loess Plateau and the extent of active aeolian sand in the dunefields to the north have varied together over time, because both are controlled by the strength of the Asian monsoons and also possibly because the dunefields are proximal loess sources. The results show there is little evidence that high rates of loess accumulation coincided with well‐dated episodes of extensive dune activity in the Mu Us, Otindag, and Horqin dunefields, at 11–8 ka and 1–0 ka. Explanations for the apparent lack of coupling include local variation in the trapping of dust and post‐depositional preservation of the loess and dune sediments, in response to varying local environmental conditions. In addition, a substantial portion of the loess may be transported directly from source areas where dust emission has somewhat different climatic and geomorphic controls than aeolian sand activity within the dunefields. The results of this study cast doubt on the use of loess accumulation rate as a palaeoclimatic proxy at millennial timescale. The dunefield and loess stratigraphic records are interpreted as primarily recording changes in effective moisture at a local scale, but the timing of late Quaternary dune activity, along with a variety of other evidence, indicates that moisture changes in many of the drylands of northern China may not be in phase with precipitation in core regions of the Asian monsoons. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
The relationship between stream discharge and the concentration of different solutes reflects the hydrological processes occurring in a catchment, but is also strongly affected by antecedent moisture conditions. In this study, the effects of antecedent conditions were examined for a small forested watershed near Montréal (Québec) by comparing data from sequences of fall events for two years of contrasting antecedent moisture conditions. The relationship between discharge and stream water chemistry was also quantified using cross‐correlation analysis. Results show that concentrations of dissolved organic carbon, nitrate and calcium increased during storm events with dry antecedent conditions but that the relationships were weaker under wet conditions. For both years, concentrations of sulfate, silicon and sodium and the pH were negatively correlated with discharge (cross‐correlations from −0·20 to −0·53). With dry antecedent conditions, there was a general decrease in the concentration of all solutes with time, whereas concentrations remained at about the same level under wet conditions. The concentration–discharge relationships for sulfate shifted frequently from higher concentrations during the rising limb to higher concentrations during the falling limb from one event to another as a result of changing antecedent conditions. Although the contrast in antecedent moisture conditions between the two years was moderate in comparison with that reported in other studies (25% dryer than average in 1995 and 12% wetter than average in 1996), the hydrochemistry of the stream was markedly different. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
The results of a high-resolution mineral magnetic study combined with major element geochemistry analysis, oxygen isotopes and 14C AMS stratigraphy are reported for deep-sea gravity cores MD77-169 and MD77-180 located in the Andaman Sea and the Bay of Bengal, respectively. Core MD77-169 covers the last 280 kyr and core MD77-180 covers the last 160 kyr. In both cores, rock magnetic parameters indicate that the magnetic assemblage is dominated by pseudo-single domain titanomagnetite grains, with grain-size variations following a strong 23 kyr periodicity. Smaller magnetic grain sizes are observed during periods characterized by a strong summer monsoon. In addition, in core MD77-180, we observe a correlation between magnetic grain size and a chemical index of alteration. This suggests that these magnetic grain-size changes are related to chemical weathering driven by summer monsoon rainfall. A comparison of the GISP2 ice core isotopic record and the magnetic grain-size record of the Bay of Bengal shows that rapid temperature variations documented in the ice core (Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles and Heinrich events), during the last glacial period are also present in the magnetic grain-size record. Heinrich events and cold stadial events are characterized by relatively large magnetic grain sizes. Furthermore, Heinrich events are characterized by lower values of the chemical index of alteration implying a lower degree of chemical weathering related to significantly drier conditions on the continent. We suggest that rapid cold events of the North Atlantic (Heinrich events) during the last glacial stages are characterized by a weaker summer monsoon rainfall over the Himalaya via an atmospheric teleconnection.  相似文献   

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