Impacts of land use on the hydrological response of tropical Andean catchments

Changes in land use and land cover are major drivers of hydrological alteration in the tropical Andes. However, quantifying their impacts is fraught with difficulties because of the extreme diversity in meteorological boundary conditions, which contrasts strongly with the lack of knowledge about local hydrological processes. Although local studies have reduced data scarcity in certain regions, the complexity of the tropical Andes poses a big challenge to regional hydrological prediction. This study analyses data generated from a participatory monitoring network of 25 headwater catchments covering three of the major Andean biomes (páramo, jalca and puna) and links their hydrological responses to main types of human interventions (cultivation, afforestation and grazing). A paired catchment setup was implemented to evaluate the impacts of change using a ‘trading space‐for‐time’ approach. Catchments were selected based on regional representativeness and contrasting land use types. Precipitation and discharge have been monitored and analysed at high temporal resolution for a time period between 1 and 5 years. The observed catchment responses clearly reflect the extraordinarily wide spectrum of hydrological processes of the tropical Andes. They range from perennially humid páramos in Ecuador and northern Peru with extremely large specific discharge and baseflows, to highly seasonal, flashy catchments in the drier punas of southern Peru and Bolivia. The impacts of land use are similarly diverse and their magnitudes are a function of catchment properties, original and replacement vegetation and management type. Cultivation and afforestation consistently affect the entire range of discharges, particularly low flows. The impacts of grazing are more variable but have the largest effect on the catchment hydrological regulation. Overall, anthropogenic interventions result in increased streamflow variability and significant reductions in catchment regulation capacity and water yield, irrespective of the hydrological properties of the original biome. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Hydrological Processes. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Effects of land‐use changes on hydrological processes in the middle basin of the Heihe River,northwest China

The effects of land‐use changes on the runoff process in the midstream plain of this arid inland river basin are a key factor in the rational allocation of water resources to the middle and lower reaches. The question is whether and by how much increasingly heavy land use impacts the hydrological processes in such an arid inland river basin. The catchment of the Heihe River, one of the largest inland rivers in the arid region of northwest China, was chosen to investigate the hydrological responses to land‐use change. Flow duration curves were used to detect trends and variations in runoff between the upper and lower reaches. Relationships among precipitation, upstream runoff, and hydrological variables were identified to distinguish the effects of climatic changes and upstream runoff changes on middle and downstream runoff processes. The quantitative relation between midstream cultivated land use and various parameters of downstream runoff processes were analysed using the four periods of land‐use data since 1956. The Volterra numerical function relation of the hydrological non‐linear system response was utilized to develop a multifactor hydrological response simulation model based on the three factors of precipitation, upstream runoff, and cultivated land area. The results showed that, since 1967, the medium‐ and high‐coverage natural grassland area in the midstream region has decreased by 80·1%, and the downstream runoff has declined by 27·32% due to the continuous expansion of the cultivated land area. The contribution of cultivated land expansion to the impact on the annual total runoff is 14–31%, on the annual, spring and winter base flow it is 44–75%, and on spring and winter discharge it is 23–64%. Once the water conservation plan dominated by land‐use structural adjustments is implemented over the next 5 years, the mean annual discharge in the lower reach could increase by 8·98% and the spring discharge by 26·28%. This will significantly alleviate the imbalance between water supply and demand in both its quantity and temporal distribution in the middle and lower reaches. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

SWAT‐simulated hydrological impact of land‐use change in the Zanjanrood basin,Northwest Iran

Understanding the impacts of land‐use changes on hydrology at the watershed scale can facilitate development of sustainable water resource strategies. This paper investigates the hydrological effects of land‐use change in Zanjanrood basin, Iran. The water balance was simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (AVSWAT2000). Model calibration and uncertainty analysis were performed with sequential uncertainty fitting (SUFI‐2). Simulation results from January 1998 to December 2002 were used for parameter calibration, and then the model was validated for the period of January 2003 to December 2004. The predicted monthly streamflow matched the observed values: during calibration the correlation coefficient was 0·86 and the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient 0·79, compared with 0·80 and 0·79, respectively, during validation. The model was used to simulate the main components of the hydrological cycle, in order to study the effects of land‐use changes in 1967, 1994 and 2007. The study reveals that during 1967 a 34·5% decrease of grassland with concurrent increases of shrubland (13·9%), rain‐fed agriculture (12·1%), bare ground (5·5%) irrigated agriculture (2·2%), and urban area (0·7%) led to a 33% increase in the amount of surface runoff and a 22% decrease in the groundwater recharge. Furthermore, the area of sub‐basins that was influenced by high runoff (14–28 mm) increased. The results indicate that the hydrological response to overgrazing and the replacing of rangelands (grassland and shrubland) with rain‐fed agriculture and bare ground (badlands) is nonlinear and exhibits a threshold effect. The runoff rises dramatically when more than 60% of the rangeland is removed. For groundwater this threshold lies at an 80% decrease in rangeland. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling hydrological response to different land‐use and climate change scenarios in the Zamu River basin of northwest China

Changes in climate and land use can significantly influence the hydrological cycle and hence affect water resources. Understanding the impacts of climate and land‐use changes on streamflow can facilitate development of sustainable water resources strategies. This study investigates the flow variation of the Zamu River, an inland river in the arid area of northwest China, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool distributed hydrological model. Three different land‐use and climate‐change scenarios were considered on the basis of measured climate data and land‐use cover, and then these data were input into the hydrological model. Based on the sensitivity analysis, model calibration and verification, the hydrological response to different land‐use and climate‐change scenarios was simulated. The results indicate that the runoff varied with different land‐use type, and the runoff of the mountain reaches of the catchment increased when grassland area increased and forestland decreased. The simulated runoff increased with increased precipitation, but the mean temperature increase decreased the runoff under the same precipitation condition. Application of grey correlation analysis showed that precipitation and temperature play a critical role in the runoff of the Zamu River basin. Sensitivity analysis of runoff to precipitation and temperature by considering the 1990s land use and climate conditions was also undertaken. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effect of land‐use changes on nonpoint source pollution in the Xizhi River watershed,Guangdong, China

The Annualized Agricultural Non‐point Source (AnnAGNPS) pollution model has been widely used to assess and predict runoff, soil erosion, sediment and nutrient loading with a geographic information system. This article presents a case study of the effect of land‐use changes on nonpoint source (NPS) pollution using the AnnAGNPS model in the Xizhi River watershed, eastern Pearl River Delta of Guangdong province, China. The land‐use changes in the Xizhi River watershed between 1998 and 2003 were examined using the multitemporal remote sensing data. The runoff, soil erosion, sediment transport and nutrient loading 1998 and 2003 were assessed using AnnAGNPS. The effects of land‐use changes on NPS were studied by comparing the simulation results of each year. Our results showed that (i) the NPS loadings increased when forest and grass land converted into paddy, orchard and farmland land, and population size and gross domestic product size as well as the usage amounts of fertilizer and pesticide in the entire watershed were firmly correlated with the NPS loadings; (ii) the land‐use change during fast urbanization in particular when other land types were converted into the development land and buildup land led to increasing of NPS pollution; and (iii) urban land expansion showed more important effects on total organic carbon (TOC) loading compared with nitrogen and phosphorus loadings. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Continuous versus event‐based sampling: how many samples are required for deriving general hydrological understanding on Ecuador's páramo region?

As a consequence of the remote location of the Andean páramo, knowledge on their hydrologic functioning is limited; notwithstanding, these alpine tundra ecosystems act as water towers for a large fraction of the society. Given the harsh environmental conditions in this region, year‐round monitoring is cumbersome, and it would be beneficial if the monitoring needed for the understanding of the rainfall–runoff response could be limited in time. To identify the hydrological response and the effect of temporal monitoring, a nested (n = 7) hydrological monitoring network was set up in the Zhurucay catchment (7.53 km²), south Ecuador. The research questions were as follows: (1) Can event sampling provide similar information in comparison with continuous monitoring, and (2) if so, how many events are needed to achieve a similar degree of information? A subset of 34 rainfall–runoff events was compared with monthly values derived from a continuous monitoring scheme from December 2010 to November 2013. Land cover and physiographic characteristics were correlated with 11 hydrological indices. Results show that despite some distinct differences between event and continuous sampling, both data sets reveal similar information; more in particular, the monitoring of a single event in the rainy season provides the same information as continuous monitoring, while during the dry season, ten events ought to be monitored. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The responses of hydrological processes and sediment yield to land‐use and climate change in the Be River Catchment,Vietnam

In this study, we investigated the responses of hydrology and sediment yield with impacts of land‐use and climate change scenarios in the Be River Catchment, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The calibration and validation results indicated that the SWAT model is a powerful tool for simulating the impact of environmental change on hydrology and sediment yield in this catchment. The hydrologic and sediment yield responses to land‐use and climate changes were simulated based on the calibrated model. The results indicated that a 16.3% decrease in forest land is likely to increase streamflow (0.2 to 0.4%), sediment load (1.8 to 3.0%), and surface runoff (SURQ) (4.8 to 10.7%) and to decrease groundwater discharge (GW_Q) (3.5 to 7.9%). Climate change in the catchment leads to decreases in streamflow (0.7 to 6.9%) and GW_Q (3.0 to 8.4%), increase in evapotranspiration (0.5 to 2.9%), and changes in SURQ (?5.3 to 2.3%) and sediment load (?5.3 to 4.4%). The combined impacts of land‐use and climate changes decrease streamflow (2.0 to 3.9%) and GW_Q (12.3 to 14.0%), increase evapotranspiration (0.7 to 2.8%), SURQ (8.2 to 12.4%), and sediment load (2.0 to 7.9%). In general, the separate impacts of climate and land‐use changes on streamflow, sediment load, and water balance components are offset each other. However, SURQ and some component of subsurface flow are more sensitive to land‐use change than to climate change. Furthermore, the results emphasized water scarcity during the dry season and increased soil erosion during the wet season. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Combined use of isotopic and hydrometric data to conceptualize ecohydrological processes in a high‐elevation tropical ecosystem

Few high‐elevation tropical catchments worldwide are gauged, and even fewer are studied using combined hydrometric and isotopic data. Consequently, we lack information needed to understand processes governing rainfall–runoff dynamics and to predict their influence on downstream ecosystem functioning. To address this need, we present a combination of hydrometric and water stable isotopic observations in the wet Andean páramo ecosystem of the Zhurucay Ecohydrological Observatory (7.53 km²). The catchment is located in the Andes of south Ecuador between 3400 and 3900 m a.s.l. Water samples for stable isotopic analysis were collected during 2 years (May 2011–May 2013), while rainfall and runoff measurements were continuously recorded since late 2010. The isotopic data reveal that andosol soils predominantly situated on hillslopes drain laterally to histosols (Andean páramo wetlands) mainly located at the valley bottom. Histosols, in turn, feed water to creeks and small rivers throughout the year, establishing hydrologic connectivity between wetlands and the drainage network. Runoff is primarily composed of pre‐event water stored in the histosols, which is replenished by rainfall that infiltrates through the andosols. Contributions from the mineral horizon and the top of the fractured bedrock are small and only seem to influence discharge in small catchments during low flow generation (non‐exceedance flows < Q₃₅). Variations in source contributions are controlled by antecedent soil moisture, rainfall intensity, and duration of rainy periods. Saturated hydraulic conductivity of the soils, higher than the year‐round low precipitation intensity, indicates that Hortonian overland flow rarely occurs during high‐intensity precipitation events. Deep groundwater contributions to discharge seem to be minimal. These results suggest that, in this high‐elevation tropical ecosystem, (1) subsurface flow is a dominant hydrological process and (2) (histosols) wetlands are the major source of stream runoff. Our study highlights that detailed isotopic characterization during short time periods provides valuable information about ecohydrological processes in regions where very few basins are gauged. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling the hydrologic effects of dynamic land‐use change using a distributed hydrologic model and a spatial land‐use allocation model

This study develops a novel approach for modelling and examining the impacts of time–space land‐use changes on hydrological components. The approach uses an empirical land‐use change allocation model (CLUE‐s) and a distributed hydrological model (DHSVM) to examine various land‐use change scenarios in the Wu‐Tu watershed in northern Taiwan. The study also uses a generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation approach to quantify the parameter uncertainty of the distributed hydrological model. The results indicate that various land‐use policies—such as no change, dynamic change and simultaneous change—have different levels of impact on simulating the spatial distributions of hydrological components in the watershed study. Peak flow rates under simultaneous and dynamic land‐use changes are 5·71% and 2·77%, respectively, greater than the rate under the no land‐use change scenario. Using dynamic land‐use changes to assess the effect of land‐use changes on hydrological components is more practical and feasible than using simultaneous land‐use change and no land‐use change scenarios. Furthermore, land‐use change is a spatial dynamic process that can lead to significant changes in the distributions of ground water and soil moisture. The spatial distributions of land‐use changes influence hydrological processes, such as the ground water level of whole areas, particularly in the downstream watershed. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Response of hydrological processes to land‐cover and climate changes in Kejie watershed,south‐west China

Land‐cover/climate changes and their impacts on hydrological processes are of widespread concern and a great challenge to researchers and policy makers. Kejie Watershed in the Salween River Basin in Yunnan, south‐west China, has been reforested extensively during the past two decades. In terms of climate change, there has been a marked increase in temperature. The impact of these changes on hydrological processes required investigation: hence, this paper assesses aspects of changes in land cover and climate. The response of hydrological processes to land‐cover/climate changes was examined using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and impacts of single factor, land‐use/climate change on hydrological processes were differentiated. Land‐cover maps revealed extensive reforestation at the expense of grassland, cropland, and barren land. A significant monotonic trend and noticeable changes had occurred in annual temperature over the long term. Long‐term changes in annual rainfall and streamflow were weak; and changes in monthly rainfall (May, June, July, and September) were apparent. Hydrological simulations showed that the impact of climate change on surface water, baseflow, and streamflow was offset by the impact of land‐cover change. Seasonal variation in streamflow was influenced by seasonal variation in rainfall. The earlier onset of monsoon and the variability of rainfall resulted in extreme monthly streamflow. Land‐cover change played a dominant role in mean annual values; seasonal variation in surface water and streamflow was influenced mainly by seasonal variation in rainfall; and land‐cover change played a regulating role in this. Surface water is more sensitive to land‐cover change and climate change: an increase in surface water in September and May due to increased rainfall was offset by a decrease in surface water due to land‐cover change. A decrease in baseflow caused by changes in rainfall and temperature was offset by an increase in baseflow due to land‐cover change. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling artificial channel and land‐use changes and their impact on floods and sediment yield to the Ishikari basin

The potential for flooding and sediment transport is greatly affected by river channel form and changes in land use. Therefore the modelling of channel morphology prior to canalization and of land‐use change is important with respect to the prediction of floods and sediment yield and their consequences. A combination of land‐use transformation maps and soil properties shows certain decision rules for the conversion of forest into arable or vice versa. The model proposed, from this study, was used to simulate possible past and/or future channel and land‐use patterns. Subsequently, the outcome of this simulation was used to assess the risk of flooding, sediment transport and soil‐erosion under different conditions. In this study, channel morphology prior to canalization and land‐use change in the Ishikari basin, Hokkaido, Japan, were analysed by comparing three scenarios using a physical based channel and slope model. The results indicate that pre‐canalization channel morphology has a significant impact on flood peak, but no significant effect on sediment yield. In contrast, land‐use change has a significant effect on soil eroded from hillslopes, but no significant effect on flooding for Ishikari basin. This study also illustrates the challenges that a simple model, such as a physical based channel and slope model, can simulate large‐scale river basin processes using fewer hydrological data resources. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using a pore‐scale model to quantify the effect of particle re‐arrangement on pore structure and hydraulic properties

A pore‐scale model based on measured particle size distributions has been used to quantify the changes in pore space geometry of packed soil columns resulting from a dilution in electrolyte concentration from 500 to 1 mmol l^?1 NaCl during leaching. This was applied to examine the effects of particle release and re‐deposition on pore structure and hydraulic properties. Two different soils, an agricultural soil and a mining residue, were investigated with respect to the change in hydraulic properties. The mining residue was much more affected by this process with the water saturated hydraulic conductivity decreasing to 0·4% of the initial value and the air‐entry value changing from 20 to 50 cm. For agricultural soil, there was little detectable shift in the water retention curve but the saturated hydraulic conductivity decreased to 8·5% of the initial value. This was attributed to localized pore clogging (similar to a surface seal) affecting hydraulic conductivity, but not the microscopically measured pore‐size distribution or water retention. We modelled the soil structure at the pore scale to explain the different responses of the two soils to the experimental conditions. The size of the pores was determined as a function of deposited clay particles. The modal pore size of the agricultural soil as indicated by the constant water retention curve was 45 µm and was not affected by the leaching process. In the case of the mining residue, the mode changed from 75 to 45 µm. This reduction of pore size corresponds to an increase of capillary forces that is related to the measured shift of the water retention curve. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of land‐cover changes on the hydrological response of interior Columbia River basin forested catchments

The topographically explicit distributed hydrology–soil–vegetation model (DHSVM) is used to simulate hydrological effects of changes in land cover for four catchments, ranging from 27 to 1033 km², within the Columbia River basin. Surface fluxes (stream flow and evapotranspiration) and state variables (soil moisture and snow water equivalent) corresponding to historical (1900) and current (1990) vegetation are compared. In addition a sensitivity analysis, where the catchments are covered entirely by conifers at different maturity stages, was conducted. In general, lower leaf‐area index (LAI) resulted in higher snow water equivalent, more stream flow and less evapotranspiration. Comparisons with the macroscale variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model, which parameterizes, rather than explicitly represents, topographic effects, show that runoff predicted by DHSVM is more sensitive to land‐cover changes than is runoff predicted by VIC. This is explained by model differences in soil parameters and evapotranspiration calculations, and by the more explicit representation of saturation excess in DHSVM and its higher sensitivity to LAI changes in the calculation of evapotranspiration. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effect of land cover and hydro‐meteorological controls on soil water DOC concentrations in a high‐elevation tropical environment

Páramo soils store high amounts of organic carbon. However, the effects of climate change and changes in land cover and use (LC/LU) in this high‐elevation tropical ecosystem may cause a decrease in their carbon storage capacity. Therefore, better understanding of the factors influencing the Páramo soils' carbon storage and export is urgently needed. To fill this knowledge gap, we investigated the differences in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) content in the soil water of four LC/LU types (tussock grass, natural forest, pine plantations, and pasture) and the factors controlling its variability in the Quinuas Ecohydrological Observatory in south Ecuador. Weekly measurements of soil water DOC concentrations, meteorological variables, soil water content, and temperature from various depths and slope positions were monitored within the soils' organic and mineral horizons between October 2014 and January 2017. These data were used to generate regression trees and random forest statistical models to identify the factors controlling soil water DOC concentrations. From high to low concentrations, natural forest depict the highest DOC concentrations followed by pasture, tussock grass, and pine forest. For all LC/LU types, DOC concentrations increase with decreasing soil moisture. Our results also show that LC/LU is the most important predictor of soil water DOC concentrations, followed by sampling depth and soil moisture. Interestingly, atmospheric variables and antecedent evapotranspiration and precipitation conditions show only little influence on DOC concentrations during the monitoring period. Our findings provide unique information that can help improve the management of soil and water resources in the Páramo and other peat dominated ecosystems elsewhere.     

Modelling the effects of land‐use change on water and salt delivery from a catchment affected by dryland salinity in south‐east Australia

A comprehensive framework for the assessment of water and salt balance for large catchments affected by dryland salinity is applied to the Boorowa River catchment (1550 km²), located in south‐eastern Australia. The framework comprised two models, each focusing on a different aspect and operating on a different scale. A quasi‐physical semi‐distributed model CATSALT was used to estimate runoff and salt fluxes from different source areas within the catchment. The effects of land use, climate, topography, soils and geology are included. A groundwater model FLOWTUBE was used to estimate the long‐term effects of land‐use change on groundwater discharge. Unlike conventional salinity studies that focus on groundwater alone, this study makes use of a new approach to explore surface and groundwater interactions with salt stores and the stream. Land‐use change scenarios based on increased perennial pasture and tree‐cover content of the vegetation, aimed at high leakage and saline discharge areas, are investigated. Likely downstream impacts of the reduction in flow and salt export are estimated. The water balance model was able to simulate both the daily observed stream flow and salt load at the catchment outlet for high and low flow conditions satisfactorily. Mean leakage rate of about 23·2 mm year^?1 under current land use for the Boorowa catchment was estimated. The corresponding mean runoff and salt export from the catchment were 89 382 ML year^?1 and 38 938 t year^?1, respectively. Investigation of various land‐use change scenarios indicates that changing annual pastures and cropping areas to perennial pastures is not likely to result in substantial improvement of water quality in the Boorowa River. A land‐use change of about 20% tree‐cover, specifically targeting high recharge and the saline discharge areas, would be needed to decrease stream salinity by 150 µS cm^?1 from its current level. Stream salinity reductions of about 20 µS cm^?1 in the main Lachlan River downstream of the confluence of the Boorowa River is predicted. The FLOWTUBE modelling within the Boorowa River catchment indicated that discharge areas under increased recharge conditions could re‐equilibrate in around 20 years for the catchment, and around 15 years for individual hillslopes. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparing Beerkan infiltration tests with rainfall simulation experiments for hydraulic characterization of a sandy‐loam soil

Saturated soil hydraulic conductivity, K _s , data collected by ponding infiltrometer methods and usual experimental procedures could be unusable for interpreting field hydrological processes and particularly rainfall infiltration. The K _s values determined by an infiltrometer experiment carried out by applying water at a relatively large distance from the soil surface could however be more appropriate to explain surface runoff generation phenomena during intense rainfall events. In this study, a link between rainfall simulation and ponding infiltrometer experiments was established for a sandy‐loam soil. The height of water pouring for the infiltrometer run was chosen, establishing a similarity between the gravitational potential energy of the applied water, E _p , and the rainfall kinetic energy, E _k . To test the soundness of this procedure, the soil was sampled with the Beerkan estimation of soil transfer parameters procedure of soil hydraulic characterization and two heights of water pouring (0.03 m, i.e., usual procedure, and 0.34 m, yielding E _p  = E _k ). Then, a comparison between experimental steady‐state infiltration rates, i _sR , measured with rainfall simulation experiments determining runoff production and K _s values for the two water pouring heights was carried out in order to discriminate between theoretically possible (i _sR  ≥ K _s ) and impossible (i _sR  < K _s ) situations. Physically possible K _s values were only obtained by applying water at a relatively large distance from the soil surface, because i _sR was equal to 20.0 mm h^?1 and K _s values were 146.2–163.9 and 15.2–18.7 mm h^?1 for a height of water pouring of 0.03 and 0.34 m, respectively. This result suggested the consistency between Beerkan runs with a high height of water pouring and rainfall simulator experiments. Soil compaction and mechanical aggregate breakdown were the most plausible physical mechanisms determining reduction of K _s with height. This study demonstrated that the height from which water is poured onto the soil surface is a key parameter in infiltrometer experiments and can be adapted to mimic the effect of high intensity rain on soil hydraulic properties.     

Validity and extension of the SCS‐CN method for computing infiltration and rainfall‐excess rates

A criterion is developed for determining the validity of the Soil Conservation Service curve number (SCS‐CN) method. According to this criterion, the existing SCS‐CN method is found to be applicable when the potential maximum retention, S, is less than or equal to twice the total rainfall amount. The criterion is tested using published data of two watersheds. Separating the steady infiltration from capillary infiltration, the method is extended for predicting infiltration and rainfall‐excess rates. The extended SCS‐CN method is tested using 55 sets of laboratory infiltration data on soils varying from Plainfield sand to Yolo light clay, and the computed and observed infiltration and rainfall‐excess rates are found to be in good agreement. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.