Back-analysis of a seismically induced highway embankment failure during the 1999 Düzce earthquake

An earthquake of magnitude 7.2 on the Richter scale occurred on 12 November 1999 in the Düzce-Bolu region of Turkey. The region was also hit approximately 3 months before during the devastating Kocaeli earthquake of 17 August 1999. Besides high casualties and damage to various engineering structures and buildings, slope and embankment failures on the highway and the country roads occurred. In this study, the authors are concerned with the back-analysis of an embankment failure that occurred on the four lanes E-5 highway connecting Ankara to Gstanbul at Bakacak in the Bolu Province during the 1999 Düzce earthquake. Both pseudo-dynamic and dynamic limiting equilibrium methods are used to back analyse the conditions for the initiation of failure and also displacement responses of the embankment during the earthquake shaking. After having given a brief summary of the investigations on the post-failure state, the geology and geotechnical characteristics of the site, and the dynamic limiting equilibrium method developed and used for analyses are described. The results of the back-analysis based on a pseudo-dynamic approach, revealed that the maximum ground acceleration to initiate the failure of the embankment was probably about 0.125 g. On the other hand, the application of a method for computing the displacement and velocity responses of the failed embankment showed that the failure was possible when the embankment was subjected to ground accelerations similar to that recorded at the Düzce station. In addition, the computations also revealed that the time history of accelerations could be very important for the failure of slopes and embankments.     

Stress modeling to determine the through-going active fault geometry of the Western North Anatolian Fault,Turkey

The North Anatolian Fault (NAF) is a 1200 km long dextral strike-slip fault which is part of an east-west trending dextral shear zone (NAF system) between the Anatolian and Eurasian plates. The North Anatolian shear zone widens to the west, complicating potential earthquake rupture paths and highlighting the importance of understanding the geometry of active fault systems. In the central portion of the NAF system, just west of the town of Bolu, the NAF bifurcates into the northern and southern strands, which converge, then diverge to border the Marmara Sea. At their convergence east of the Marmara Sea, these two faults are linked through the Mudurnu Valley. The westward continuation of these two fault traces is marked by further complexities in potential active fault geometry, particularly in the Marmara Sea for the northern strand, and towards the Biga Peninsula for the southern strand. Potential active fault geometries for both strands of the NAF are evaluated by comparing stress models of various fault geometries in these regions to a record of focal mechanisms and inferred paleostress from a lineament analysis. For the Marmara region, the best-fit active fault geometry consists of the northern and southern bounding faults of the Marmara basin, as the model representing this geometry better replicated primary stress orientations seen in focal mechanism data and stress field interpretations. In the Biga Peninsula region, the active geometry of the southern strand has the southern fault merging with the northern fault through a linking fault in a narrow topographic valley. This geometry was selected over the other two as it best replicated the maximum horizontal stresses determined from focal mechanism data and a lineament analysis.     

Late Cenozoic tectonics and stratigraphy of northwestern Anatolia: the effects of the North Anatolian Fault to the region

In northwest Anatolia, there is a mosaic of different morpho-tectonic fragments within the western part of the right-lateral strike-slip North Anatolian Fault (NAF) Zone. These were developed from compressional and extensional tectonic regimes during the paleo- and neo-tectonic periods of Turkish orogenic history. A NE-SW-trending left-lateral strike-slip fault system (Adapazari-Karasu Fault) extends through the northern part of the Sakarya River Valley and began to develop within a N–S compressional tectonic regime which involved all of northern Anatolia during Middle Eocene to early Middle Miocene times. Since the end of Middle Miocene times, this fault system forms a border between a compressional tectonic regime in the eastern area eastwards from the northern part of the Sakarya River Valley, and an extensional tectonic regime in the Marmara region to the west. The extension caused the development of basins and ridges, and the incursions of the Mediterranean Sea into the site of the future Sea of Marmara since Late Miocene times. Following the initiation in late Middle Miocene times and the eastward propagation of extension along the western part of the NAF, a block (North Anatolian Block) began to form in the northern Anatolia region since the end of Pliocene times. The Adapazari-Karasu Fault constitutes the western boundary of this block which is bounded by the NAF in the south, the Northeast Anatolian Fault in the east, and the South Black Sea Thrust Fault in the north. The northeastward movement of the North Anatolian Block caused the formation of a marine connection between the Black Sea and the Aegean/Mediterranean Sea during the Pleistocene.     

The effects of the North Anatolian Fault on the geomorphology in the Eastern Marmara Region,Northwestern Turkey

North-western Anatolia has been actively deformed since Pliocene by the right-lateral North Anatolian Fault (NAF). This transform fault, which has a transtensional character in its western end due to effects from the Aegean extensional system, is a major control on the regional geomorphologic evolution. This study applied some geomorphic analyses, such as stream longitudinal profiles, stream length-gradient index, ratio of valley floor width and valley height, mountain front sinuosity, hypsometry and asymmetry factor analyses, to an area just east of the Sea of Marmara in order to understand the tectonic effects on the area’s geomorphological evolution. The active and fastest northern branch of the NAF lies within a topographic depression connecting Sea of Marmara in the east to the Adapazar? Basin in the west. This depression filled with early Pleistocene and younger sediment after a series of pull-apart basins opened along the NAF. North of this depression lies the Kocaeli Peneplain, whose southern edge the NAF uplifted. Meandering streams on the central peneplain were incised possibly due to baselevel changes in the Black Sea. South of the depression, an E-trending mountainous area has a rugged morphology. Based on geomorphic analyses, uplifted Pliocene sediment, marine terraces, and recent earthquake activity, this area between northern and southern branches of the NAF is actively uplifting. The geomorphic indices used in this study are sensitive to vertical movements rather than lateral ones. The bedrock lithology that played an important role on the area’s geomorphologic evolution also affects the geomorphic indices used here.     

Elastic and inelastic triggering of earthquakes in the North Anatolian Fault zone

Deformation models used to explain the triggering mechanism often assume pure elastic behaviour for the crust and upper mantle. In reality however, the mantle and possibly the lower crust behave viscoelastically, particularly over longer time scales. Consequently, the stress field of an earthquake is in general time-dependent. In addition, if the elastic stress increase were enough to trigger a later earthquake, this triggered event should occur instantaneously and not many years after the triggering event. Hence, it is appropriate to include inelastic behaviour when analysing stress transfer and earthquake interaction.In this work, we analyse a sequence of 10 magnitude M_s > 6.5 events along the North Anatolian Fault between 1939 and 1999 to study the evolution of the regional Coulomb stress field. We investigate the triggering of these events by stress transfer, taking viscoelastic relaxation into account. We evaluate the contribution of elastic stress changes, of post-seismic viscoelastic relaxation in the lower crust and mantle, and of steady tectonic loading to the total Coulomb stress field. We analyse the evolution of stress in the region under study, as well as on the rupture surfaces of the considered events and their epicentres. We study the state of the Coulomb stress field before the 1999 İzmit and Düzce earthquakes, as well as in the Marmara Sea region.In general, the Coulomb stress failure criterion offers a plausible explanation for the location of these events. However, we show that using a purely elastic model disregards an important part of the actual stress increase/decrease. In several cases, post-seismic relaxation effects are important and greater in magnitude than the stress changes due to steady tectonic loading. Consequently, viscoelastic relaxation should be considered in any study dealing with Coulomb stress changes.According to our study, and assuming that an important part of the rupture surface must be stressed for an earthquake to occur, the most likely value for the viscosity of the lower crust or mantle in this region is 5 · 10¹⁷–10¹⁸ Pa · s. Our results cannot rule out the possibility of other time-dependent processes involved in the triggering of the 1999 Düzce event. However, the stress increase due to viscoelastic relaxation brought 22% of the 1999 Düzce rupture area over the threshold value of Δσ_c ≥ 0.01 MPa (0.1 bar), and took the whole surface closer to failure by an average of 0.2 MPa. Finally, we argue that the Marmara Sea region is currently being loaded with positive Coulomb stresses at a much faster rate than would arise exclusively from steady tectonic loading on the North Anatolian Fault.     

Geohazards rooted from the northern margin of the Sea of Marmara since the late Pleistocene: a review of recent results

Natural Hazards - Owing to its special geodynamic setting on the western extension of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) and oceanographic setting between Mediterranean and the Black Seas, the Sea of...     

Dynamic sub-surface characteristic and the active faults of the Genç District locating over the Bingöl Seismic Gap of the East Anatolian Fault Zone,Eastern Turkey

The Genç District is located on the Bingöl Seismic Gap (BSG) of the Eastern Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ) with its?~?34.000 residents. The Karl?ova Triple Junction, where the EAFZ, the North Anatolian Fault Zone, and the Varto Fault Zone meet, is only 80 km NE of the Genç District. To make an earthquake disaster damage prediction of the Genç District, carrying a high risk of disaster, we have (1) prepared a new geological map, and (2) conducted a single-station microtremor survey. We defined that three SW-NE trending active faults of the sinistral Genç Fault Zone are cutting through the District. We have obtained dominant period (T) as?<?0.2 s, the amplification factor (A) between 8 and 10, the average shear wave velocity for the first 30 m (Vs₃₀) as?<?300 m/s, and the seismic vulnerability index (Kg) as?>?20, in the central part of the Genç District. We have also prepared damage prediction maps for three bedrock acceleration values (0.25, 0.50, 0.75 g). Our earthquake damage prediction scenarios evidenced that as the bedrock acceleration values increase, the area of soil plastic behavior expands linearly. Here we report that if the average expected peak ground acceleration value (0.55–0.625 g) is exceeded during an earthquake, significant damage would be inevitable for the central part of the Genç District where most of the schools, mosques, public buildings, and hospitals are settled-down.

     

The AD 365 Crete earthquake and possible seismic clustering during the fourth to sixth centuries AD in the Eastern Mediterranean: a review of historical and archaeological data

Historical and archaeological data are used to test geological claims that, in the fourth to sixth centuries AD, the Eastern Mediterranean experienced an unusual clustering of destructive earthquakes (the ‘Early Byzantine Tectonic Paroxsym’). A review of historical accounts of a notable earthquake at this time, that of 21 July AD 365, indicates that this event destroyed nearly all the towns in Crete and was followed by a tsunami which devastated the Nile Delta. The AD 365 event was also probably responsible for reported or observed destruction in ancient towns of west Cyprus and Libya. This earthquake is most likely to be identified with a Hellenic Arc subduction-zone event of ‘great’ (M>8) magnitude, as testified by up to 9 m of uplift in western Crete dated by previous geological studies to around this time. Historical and archaeological data also support the hypothesis that the fourth to sixth centuries AD was a period of abnormally high seismicity in the Eastern Mediterranean. The high seismicity rates of this period may reflect a reactivation of all plate boundaries in the region (Dead Sea Transform, East Anatolian Fault, North Anatolian Fault, Hellenic Arc, Cyprus Arc Fault).     

Palaeomagnetically defined rotations of fault-bounded continental blocks in the North Anatolian Shear Zone, North Central Anatolia

The 1200 km-long North Anatolian Transform Fault connects the East Anatolian post-collisional compressional regime in the east with the Aegean back-arc extensional regime to the west. This active dextral fault system lies within a shear zone reaching up to 100 km in width, and consists of southward splining branches. These branches, which have less frequent and smaller magnitude earthquake activity compare to the major transform, cut and divide the shear zone into fault delimited blocks. Comparison of palaeomagnetic data from 46 sites in the Eocene volcanics from different blocks indicate that each fault-bounded block has been affected by vertical block rotations. Although clockwise rotations are dominant as expected from dextral fault-bounded blocks, anticlockwise rotations have also been documented. These anticlockwise rotations are interpreted as due to anticlockwise rotation of the Anatolian Block, as indicated by GPS measurements, and the effects of unmapped faults or pre-North Anatolian Fault tectonic events.     

Earthquake imprints on a lacustrine deltaic system: The Kürk Delta along the East Anatolian Fault (Turkey)

Deltas contain sedimentary records that are not only indicative of water‐level changes, but also particularly sensitive to earthquake shaking typically resulting in soft‐sediment‐deformation structures. The Kürk lacustrine delta lies at the south‐western extremity of Lake Hazar in eastern Turkey and is adjacent to the seismogenic East Anatolian Fault, which has generated earthquakes of magnitude 7. This study re‐evaluates water‐level changes and earthquake shaking that have affected the Kürk Delta, combining geophysical data (seismic‐reflection profiles and side‐scan sonar), remote sensing images, historical data, onland outcrops and offshore coring. The history of water‐level changes provides a temporal framework for the depositional record. In addition to the common soft‐sediment deformation documented previously, onland outcrops reveal a record of deformation (fracturing, tilt and clastic dykes) linked to large earthquake‐induced liquefactions and lateral spreading. The recurrent liquefaction structures can be used to obtain a palaeoseismological record. Five event horizons were identified that could be linked to historical earthquakes occurring in the last 1000 years along the East Anatolian Fault. Sedimentary cores sampling the most recent subaqueous sedimentation revealed the occurrence of another type of earthquake indicator. Based on radionuclide dating (¹³⁷Cs and ²¹⁰Pb), two major sedimentary events were attributed to the ad 1874 to 1875 East Anatolian Fault earthquake sequence. Their sedimentological characteristics were determined by X‐ray imagery, X‐ray diffraction, loss‐on‐ignition, grain‐size distribution and geophysical measurements. The events are interpreted to be hyperpycnal deposits linked to post‐seismic sediment reworking of earthquake‐triggered landslides.     

Palaeomagnetically defined rotations of fault-bounded continental blocks in the North Anatolian Shear Zone,North Central Anatolia

The 1200 km-long North Anatolian Transform Fault connects the East Anatolian post-collisional compressional regime in the east with the Aegean back-arc extensional regime to the west. This active dextral fault system lies within a shear zone reaching up to 100 km in width, and consists of southward splining branches. These branches, which have less frequent and smaller magnitude earthquake activity compare to the major transform, cut and divide the shear zone into fault delimited blocks. Comparison of palaeomagnetic data from 46 sites in the Eocene volcanics from different blocks indicate that each fault-bounded block has been affected by vertical block rotations. Although clockwise rotations are dominant as expected from dextral fault-bounded blocks, anticlockwise rotations have also been documented. These anticlockwise rotations are interpreted as due to anticlockwise rotation of the Anatolian Block, as indicated by GPS measurements, and the effects of unmapped faults or pre-North Anatolian Fault tectonic events.     

Structural interpretation of the Marmara region, NW Turkey, from aeromagnetic, seismic and gravity data

The seismically active Marmara region, located in NW Turkey, lies on the westward end of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF). The NAF is well defined on land. Previous investigations of its extension in the Marmara Sea include marine bathymetry, seismological activity and seismic profiles. In this study, faults and their configurations identified inland are extended into the Marmara Sea by means of aeromagnetic anomalies, as well as seismic and gravity profiles. The deep structure was resolved by constructing a map of the Tertiary bottom. Shallow Curie isotherm was determined by spectral analysis, indicating a thinner crust in the northern Marmara depression area with respect to the continental crust. A combination of the geophysical data allows us to propose the existence of subsidence and isostatic equilibrium in the northern Marmara Sea. A less-active zone identified in the central high zone dividing the Marmara Sea into two parts may also be deduced from the seismic data. This structural arrangement may play a key role in earthquakes that will affect the surrounding regions.     

Fission-track evidence for late Oligocene and mid-Miocene activity along the North Anatolian Fault in south-western Thrace

Apatite fission-track (FT) analyses of sandstone samples collected across the trace of the Ganos segment of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) in south-western Thrace (Turkey) indicate that a significant structural discontinuity was in existence at least by the latest Oligocene. Such discontinuity had a complex kinematic history, as exhumation south of it occurred during the latest Oligocene and north of it during the mid-Miocene. Our data imply that early Pliocene westward propagation of the NAF in the Marmara region followed a pre-existing structural discontinuity; such discontinuity could be related to the development of the Intra-Pontide Suture, marking the terminal closure of the Intra-Pontide Ocean during the Oligocene.     

Strong ground motion estimation in the Sea of Marmara region (Turkey) based on a scenario earthquake

We perform a broadband frequency bedrock strong ground motion simulation in the Marmara Sea region (Turkey), based on several fault rupture scenarios and a source asperity model. The technique combines a deterministic simulation of seismic wave propagation at low frequencies with a semi-stochastic procedure for the high frequencies. To model the high frequencies, we applied a frequency-dependent radiation pattern model, which efficiently removes the effective dependence of the pattern coefficient on the azimuth and take-off angle as the frequency increases. The earthquake scenarios considered consist of the rupture of the closest segments of the North Anatolian Fault System to the city of Istanbul. Our scenario earthquakes involve the rupture of the entire North Anatolian Fault beneath the Sea of Marmara, namely the combined rupture of the Central Marmara Fault and North Boundary Fault segments. We defined three fault rupture scenarios based on the location of the hypocenter, selecting a preferred hypocentral location near a fault bend for each case. We analysed the effect of location of the asperity, within the Central Marmara Fault, on the subsequent ground motion, as well as the influence of anelasticity on the high-frequency attenuation characteristics. The fault and asperity parameters for each scenario were determined from empirical scalings and from results of kinematic and dynamic models of fault rupture. We calculated the resulting time series and spectra for ground motion at Istanbul and evaluated the sensitivity of the predictions to choice of model parameters. The location of the hypocenter is thus shown to be a critical parameter for determining the worst scenario earthquake at Istanbul. We also found that anelasticity has a significant effect on the regional attenuation of peak ground accelerations. Our simulated ground motions result in large values of acceleration response spectra at long periods, which could be critical for building damage at Istanbul during an actual earthquake.     

Heterogeneous response of hydrogeological systems to the Izmit and Düzce (Turkey) earthquakes of 1999

At four sites in Turkey and Armenia the physico-chemical properties of thermal and mineral waters were monitored continuously during the Izmit and Düzce earthquakes that occurred along the North Anatolian fault in August and November 1999. The epicentral distances between the moment magnitude (M_w) 7.6 Izmit earthquake and the monitoring locations were 313, 488, 1,161, and 1,395 km. At the most distant site, the specific electrical conductivity of mineral water from a flowing artesian well dropped co-seismically and postseismically by 7%. No changes were observed at the other sites, although the estimated earthquake strains and peak ground accelerations are much higher. A similar pattern was observed after the Düzce earthquake, which happened three months after the Izmit event. The response of a hydrogeological system seems to depend on the site characteristics rather than on the nature of the earthquake. A hydrogeological model for the sensitive observation site farthest from the Izmit earthquake explains the observations in terms of a changed mixing ratio between two fluid components. Passing seismic waves may trigger a local pore-pressure increase according to the mechanism of advective overpressure. The preconditions for this mechanism, free gas bubbles in the aquifer in combination with a trap for rising bubbles, is probably not fulfilled by the other groundwater systems. Electronic Publication     

A study of microearthquake seismicity and focal mechanisms within the Sea of Marmara (NW Turkey) using ocean bottom seismometers (OBSs)

We have carried out seismological observations within the Sea of Marmara (NW Turkey) in order to investigate the seismicity induced after Gölcük–İzmit (Kocaeli) earthquake (M_w 7.4) of August 17, 1999, using ocean bottom seismometers (OBSs). High-resolution hypocenters and focal mechanisms of microearthquakes have been investigated during this Marmara Sea OBS project involving deployment of 10 OBSs within the Çınarcık (eastern Marmara Sea) and Central-Tekirdağ (western Marmara Sea) basins during April–July 2000. Little was known about microearthquake activity and their source mechanisms in the Marmara Sea. We have detected numerous microearthquakes within the main basins of the Sea of Marmara along the imaged strands of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF). We obtained more than 350 well-constrained hypocenters and nine composite focal mechanisms during 70 days of observation. Microseismicity mainly occurred along the Main Marmara Fault (MMF) in the Marmara Sea. There are a few events along the Southern Shelf. Seismic activity along the Main Marmara Fault is quite high, and focal depth distribution was shallower than 20 km along the western part of this fault, and shallower than 15 km along its eastern part. From high-resolution relative relocation studies of some of the microearthquake clusters, we suggest that the western Main Marmara Fault is subvertical and the eastern Main Marmara Fault dips to south at 45°. Composite focal mechanisms show a strike-slip regime on the western Main Marmara Fault and complex faulting (strike-slip and normal faulting) on the eastern Main Marmara Fault.     

The rupture process during the 1999 Düzce, Turkey, earthquake from joint inversion of teleseismic and strong-motion data

Teleseismic and strong-motion data are inverted to determine the rupture process during the November 1999 Düzce earthquake in NW Turkey. The fault geometry, rise time and rupture velocity are determined from the aftershock distribution and preliminary inversions of the teleseismic data. Joint inversion of the teleseismic and strong-motion data is then carried out for the slip distribution. We obtain the strike 264°, dip 64°, rake −172°, seismic moment 5.0×10¹⁹ N m (M_w 7.1), and average stress drop 7 MPa. This earthquake was characterized by bilateral fault rupture and asymmetric slip distribution. Two asperities (areas of large slip) are identified, the eastern one being 1.5 times larger than the western one. The derived slip distribution is consistent with the aftershock distribution, surface rupture and damage. The point of rupture initiation in this Düzce earthquake coincided with the eastern tip of the aftershock distribution of the August 1999 Izmit earthquake.     

Derivation of earthquake-induced landslide distribution using aerial photogrammetry: the January 24, 2020, Elazig (Turkey) earthquake

Landslides - On January 24, 2020, an earthquake with the Mw of 6.8 occurred on the East Anatolian Fault Zone in Elazig Province, Turkey, and triggered many landslides. Even though Turkey is in a...     

The Manyas fault zone (southern Marmara region,NW Turkey): active tectonics and paleoseismology

The Manyas fault zone (MFZ) is a splay fault of the Yenice Gönen Fault, which is located on the southern branch of the North Anatolian Fault System. The MFZ is a 38 km long, WNW–ESE-trending and normal fault zone comprised of three en-echelon segments. On 6 October 1964, an earthquake (Ms = 6.9) occurred on the Salur segment. In this study, paleoseismic trench studies were performed along the Salur segment. Based on these paleoseismic trench studies, at least three earthquakes resulting in a surface rupture within the last 4000 years, including the 1964 earthquake have been identified and dated. The penultimate event can be correlated with the AD 1323 earthquake. There is no archaeological and/or historical record that can be associated with the oldest earthquake dated between BP 3800 ± 600 and BP 2300 ± 200 years. Additionally, the trench study performed to the north of the Salur segment demonstrates paleoliquefaction structures crossing each other. The surface deformation that occurred during the 1964 earthquake is determined primarily to be the consequence of liquefaction. According to the fault plane slip data, the MFZ is a purely normal fault demonstrating a listric geometry with a dip of 64°–74° to the NNE.