CLM4.5冠层截留方案的敏感性试验与改进

为探究陆气系统对于冠层截留过程敏的感性,研究基于NCAR CAM-CLM陆气耦合模式探讨了截留参数对于全球陆地蒸发、降水、径流及气温的可能影响,揭示了冠层截留与植被光合作用之间的潜在联系。通过GLEAMv3.0a陆面蒸散发数据评估了CLM4.5冠层截留方案,并指出该方案高估了低茎叶面积指数植被的冠层蒸发,而低估了高茎叶面积指数植被的冠层蒸发。在CLM4.5中引入冠层截留偏差校正方案则可在一定程度上提高了全球林区冠层蒸发和陆面蒸散发的模拟能力。     

How Does the Partitioning of Evapotranspiration and Runoff between Different Processes Affect the Variability and Predictability of Soil Moisture and Precipitation？

Water stored as part of the land surface is lost to evapotranspiration and runoff on different time scales,and the partitioning between these time scales is important for modeling soil water in a climate model.Different time scales are imposed on evapotranspiration primarily because it is derived from different reservoirs with different storage capacities, from the very rapid evaporation of canopy stores to the slow removal by transpiration of rooting zone soil moisture. Runoff likewise ranges in time scale from rapid surface terms to the slower base-flow. The longest time scale losses of water determine the slow variation of soil moisture and hence the longer time scale effects of soil moisture on precipitation. This paper shows with a simple analysis how shifting the partitioning of evapotranspiration between the different reservoirs affects the variability of soil moisture and precipitation. In particular, it is concluded that a shift to shorter time scale reservoirs shifts the variance of precipitation from that which is potentially predictable to unpredictable.     

Global and regional coupled climate sensitivity to the parameterization of rainfall interception

A coupled land?Catmosphere model is used to explore the impact of seven commonly used canopy rainfall interception schemes on the simulated climate. Multiple 30-year simulations are conducted for each of the seven methods and results are analyzed in terms of the mean climatology and the probability density functions (PDFs) of key variables based on daily data. Results show that the method used for canopy interception strongly affects how rainfall is partitioned between canopy evaporation and throughfall. However, the impact on total evaporation is much smaller, and the impact on rainfall and air temperature is negligible. Similarly, the PDFs of canopy evaporation and transpiration for six selected regions are strongly affected by the method used for canopy interception, but the impact on total evaporation, temperature and precipitation is negligible. Our results show that the parameterization of rainfall interception is important to the surface hydrometeorology, but the seven interception parameterizations examined here do not cause a statistically significant impact on the climate of the coupled model. We suggest that broad scale climatological differences between coupled climate models are not likely the result of how interception is parameterized. This conclusion is inconsistent with inferences derived from earlier uncoupled simulations, or simulations using very simplified climate models.     

An annual cycle of vegetation in a GCM. Part II: global impacts on climate and hydrology

The Met Office Hadley Centre Unified Model (HadAM3) with the tiled version of the Met Office Surface Exchange Scheme (MOSES2) land surface scheme is used to assess the impact of a comprehensive imposed vegetation annual cycle on global climate and hydrology. Two 25-year numerical experiments are completed: the first with structural vegetation characteristics (Leaf Area Index, LAI, canopy height, canopy water capacity, canopy heat capacity, albedo) held at annual mean values, the second with realistic seasonally varying vegetation characteristics. It is found that the seasonalities of latent heat flux and surface temperature are widely affected. The difference in latent heat flux between experiments is proportional to the difference in LAI. Summer growing season surface temperatures are between 1 and 4 K lower in the phenology experiment over a majority of grid points with a significant vegetation annual cycle. During winter, midlatitude surface temperatures are also cooler due to brighter surface albedo over low LAI surfaces whereas during the dry season in the tropics, characterized by dormant vegetation, surface temperatures are slightly warmer due to reduced transpiration. Precipitation is not as systematically affected as surface temperature by a vegetation annual cycle, but enhanced growing season precipitation rates are seen in regions where the latent heat flux (evaporation) difference is large. Differences between experiments in evapotranspiration, soil moisture storage, the timing of soil thaw, and canopy interception generate regional perturbations to surface and sub-surface runoff annual cycles in the model.     

气候与植被覆盖变化对中国西南亚高山区流域碳水循环的影响模拟

正确认识气候变化对流域森林植被和水文的影响对于林业经营管理与流域生态修复具有重要意义。为了揭示气候与植被覆盖变化对西南亚高山区流域碳水循环过程的影响,用生物物理/动态植被模型SSiB4/TRIFFID（Simplified Simple Biosphere model version 4, coupled with the Top-down Representation of Interactive Foliage and Flora Including Dynamics model）与流域地形指数水文模型TOPMODEL（Topographic Index Model）的耦合模型（以下记为SSiB4T/TRIFFID）模拟了不同气候情景下西南亚高山区的梭磨河流域植被演替和碳水循环过程。结果表明,所有试验流域植被经历了从C3到苔原灌木最后到森林的变化;控制试验流域蒸散在流域植被主要为苔原灌木时达到最大而径流深最小;增温5 ℃并且增雨40%试验[记为T+5, (1+40%) P试验]流域蒸散在流域为森林覆盖时达到最大而径流深最小。随着温度增加,森林蒸腾、冠层截留蒸发和蒸散的增加幅度明显大于草和苔原灌木,导致森林从控制试验的增加径流量变为减小径流量。从控制试验到T+5, (1+40%) P试验,温度增加使森林净初级生产力有所增加,但对草和苔原灌木的净初级生产力影响很小;植被水分利用效率随温度增加明显减小。西南山区随着海拔高度降低（温度升高）,森林从增加径流量转变为减少径流量,植被水分利用效率也相应明显减小。西南山区气候的垂直地带性对森林—径流关系和水分利用效率的空间变化有着重要的影响。     

Long-term water budget estimation with the modified distributed model – LISFLOOD-WB over the Lushi basin, China

Summary In a modification of the distributed hydrological model, LISFLOOD-WB, a two-source canopy scheme is used to predict both the canopy transpiration and soil evaporation. A revised soil storage capacity curve from the Xinanjiang model is applied to take into account the sub-grid heterogeneity. The modified model is used to estimate the long-term (1980–1997) water budget of the Lushi basin (4423 km²), China. All the input data fields are integrated in a four-dimensional GIS data structure with a raster grid spacing of 1-km. The basin channel network is determined from digital elevation data, and the spatial pattern of canopy leaf area index (LAI) is retrieved from NOAA/AVHRR NDVI images. Generally, the model efficiency for discharge prediction is acceptable, but the discharges are overestimated in the driest years and underestimated in the wettest years. The results indicated that the influence of inter-annual variation of spatial patterns of LAI detected by NOAA/AVHRR NDVI on the estimates of annual evapotranspiration is negligible. Annually averaged ratios of overland flow, infiltration and canopy interception to precipitation are 24±7%, 56±10% and 20±2%, respectively. The inter-annual variations of precipitation and predicted evapotranspiration are relatively high with standard deviations of 5.1 mm day⁻¹ and 2.4 mm day⁻¹, respectively, whereas the inter-annual variation of the net radiation is much less. Monthly temporal patterns of soil moisture follow precipitation strongly. Spatially precipitation and LAI are both significantly correlated with evapotranspiration, although precipitation has a slightly more dominant control. The linear relationship between water yield and LAI is weak on a grid by grid basis.     

The Impacts of the Interannual Variability of Vegetation on the Interannual Variability of Global Evapotranspiration: A Modeling Study

The impact of the interannual variability (IAV) of vegetation on the IAV of evapotranspiration is investigated with the Community Land Model (CLM3.0) and modified Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM). Two sets of 50-year off-line simulations are used in this study. The simulations begin with the same initial surface-water and heat states and are driven by the same atmospheric forcing data. The vegetation exhibits interannual variability in one simulation but not in the other simulation. However, the climatological means for the vegetation are the same. The IAV of the 50-year annual total evapotranspiration and its three partitions (ground evaporation, canopy evaporation, and transpiration) are analyzed. The global distribution of the evapotranspiration IAV and the statistics of evapotranspiration and its components in different ecosystems show that the IAV of ground evaporation is generally large in areas dominated by grass and deciduous trees, whereas the IAV of canopy evaporation and transpiration is large in areas dominated by bare soil and shrubs. For ground evaporation, canopy evaporation, and transpiration, the changes in IAV are larger than the mean state over most grasslands and shrublands. The study of two sites with the same IAV in the leaf area index (LAI) shows that the component with the smaller contribution to the total evapotranspiration is more sensitive to the IAV of vegetation. The IAV of the three components of evapotranspiration increases with the IAV of the fractional coverage (FC) and the LAI. The ground evaporation IAV shows the greatest increase, whereas the canopy evaporation shows the smallest increase.     

Is Potential Evapotranspiration and Its Relationship with Actual Evapotranspiration Sensitive to Elevated Atmospheric CO2 Levels?

The possibility is examined that potential evapotranspiration values may be sensitive to changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide content. Enhanced levels of atmospheric CO2 increase water use efficiency of vegetation by improving growth rates and suppressing transpiration per unit leaf area. Highly cultivated crops without water or nutrient constraints are able to show the greatest growth improvements. In many natural or semi-natural ecosystems, under enhanced atmospheric CO2 concentrations, limits on the availability of soil nutrients severely constrains the possibility of improvements in growth and significant increases in leaf area index that could compensate for a decrease in transpiration per unit leaf area. Thus, in many natural or semi-natural ecosystems, which often form water gathering grounds in river basins, enhanced levels of CO2 will suppress transpiration and perhaps increase the proporation of precipitation that forms runoff or ground water. In low vegetation covers, such as grassland, the rates of transpiration and also evaporation from canopies that are wet after rainfall (interception loss) are very similar. In these canopies, evapotranspiration is unlikely to be significantly increased by small increases in leaf area index. It is suggested that the suppression of potential evapotranspiration by enhanced CO2 levels will be small, but that actual transpiration from tall, slow growing vegetation covers may be significantly suppressed. Thus for some vegetation covers the relationship between actual and potential evapotranspiration may be sensitive to CO2 levels. If this is so, it could be of importance to many water balance calculations. The suppression of evapotranspiration by enhanced CO2 levels will be most noticeable in dry climates where interception loss is insignificant and largely masked in very wet climates where a large proportion of evapotranspiration consists of interception loss.     

植被冠层截留对地表水分和能量平衡影响的数值模拟

利用NCAR_CLM4.0模式,通过有无植被冠层截留的试验对比分析,讨论了植被冠层截留对全球陆面水分和能量平衡产生的潜在影响.结果表明:就全球水分平衡而言,不考虑植被冠层截留时,全球平均土壤总含水量、表面径流和次表面径流增加,蒸散发减少.空间分布特征表明,低纬地区各水分平衡分量全年维持较高的差值分布,并随季节变化沿赤道南北振荡;北半球中高纬高值区有春季扩张、夏季极盛、秋冬季撤退的趋势.冠层截留消失后冠层蒸发的消失是蒸散发减弱的主要原因.对于能量平衡而言,不考虑冠层截留时,全球感热通量增加,冠层感热的增加明显大于地面感热的减少;潜热减少.此外,不同植被类型对不考虑冠层截留后产生的响应存在明显差异.     

A GCM-based assessment of the global moisture budget and the role of land-surface moisture reservoirs in processing precipitation

The performance of the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) when coupled to the CCCma third generation general circulation model is evaluated in an AMIP II simulation. Our primary aim is to understand how CLASS processes moisture and to compare model estimates of moisture budget components with observations. The modelled mean annual precipitation and runoff, and their latitudinal structures, compare well with observations although some discrepancies remain in the simulation of regional values of these quantities. The amplitude and phase of the first harmonic of the precipitation annual cycle also compares well with observations although less well over regions of sparse precipitation and/or high topography. In the model, the canopy plays a major role in processing moisture at the land surface indicating the importance of vegetation in climate. The canopy intercepts a large fraction of the precipitation and provides the medium for returning much moisture back to the atmosphere as evapotranspiration. Though important locally, the snow moisture reservoir plays a relatively minor role in the global moisture budget. It acts primarily as a storage and delay mechanism with winter precipitation released to the ground reservoir on melting. The ground moisture reservoir also plays a major role and processes a similar amount of moisture as the canopy, although in a different manner. The globally averaged model runoff compares well with observation-based estimates, although the model partitioning into surface runoff and drainage does not agree particularly well with the single available observation-based estimate. How moisture is processed at the land surface serves as a basis for model intercomparison and for understanding the modelled moisture budget and its variation and changes with climate change. Only the most basic quantities (precipitation, runoff, and partitioning of runoff into surface runoff and drainage) may be compared with observation-based estimates, however, and the establishment of more complete moisture budget remains an important need.     

气候系统对CO2强迫和太阳辐射强迫在不同时间尺度的响应

使用HadCM3L气候模式,针对突然增加的4倍CO₂浓度和增加4%的太阳辐射强迫进行一系列理想化模拟试验,分析并比较了CO₂强迫和太阳辐射强迫对气候系统的影响机制和异同。模拟结果表明,突然增加的4倍CO₂浓度和增加4%的太阳辐射造成的长期全球表面平均温度变化基本相同,但二者造成降水的变化差异很大。气候系统对CO₂和太阳辐射的响应可以分为快响应和慢响应两个部分,而降水的差异主要体现在大约1个月时间尺度内的快响应阶段,在这一时间段,陆地区域CO₂的气孔效应减少了植被的蒸腾作用,导致降水受到抑制;海洋区域CO₂的辐射效应会首先导致大气长波吸收增强,而海洋的比热较大,所以海表温度变化落后于低层大气,低层大气的垂直稳定度增加,海表向上蒸发受到抑制。此外,比较不同时间尺度上CO₂对气候系统的影响,可以发现在1个月的短时间尺度上,对陆地而言,CO₂的气孔效应对气候系统的影响占主导地位,但在数年以上更长的时间尺度上,CO₂的辐射效应是导致地气系统温度升高的主要原因。     

Downscaling of South America present climate driven by 4-member HadCM3 runs

The objective of this work is to evaluate climate simulations over South America using the regional Eta Model driven by four members of an ensemble of the UK Met Office Hadley Centre HadCM3 global model. The Eta Model has been modified with the purpose of performing long-term decadal integrations and has shown to reproduce “present climate”—the period 1961–1990—reasonably well when forced by HadCM3. The global model lateral conditions with a resolution of 2.5° latitude?×?3.75° longitude were provided at a frequency of 6?h. Each member of the global model ensemble has a different climate sensitivity, and the four members were selected to span the range of uncertainty encompassed by the ensemble. The Eta Model nested in the HadCM3 global model was configured with 40-km horizontal resolution and 38 layers in the vertical. No large-scale internal nudging was applied. Results are shown for austral summer and winter at present climate defined as 1961–90. The upper and low-level circulation patterns produced by the Eta-CPTEC/HadCM3 experiment set-up show good agreement with reanalysis data and the mean precipitation and temperature with CRU observation data. The spread in the downscaled mean precipitation and temperature is small when compared against model errors. On the other hand, the benefits in using an ensemble is clear in the improved representation of the seasonal cycle by the ensemble mean over any one realization. El Ni?o and La Ni?a years were identified in the HadCM3 member runs based on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center criterion of sea surface temperature anomalies in the Ni?o 3.4 area. The frequency of the El Ni?o and La Ni?a events in the studied period is underestimated by HadCM3. The precipitation and temperature anomalies typical of these events are reproduced by most of the Eta-CPTEC/HadCM3 ensemble, although small displacements of the positions of the anomalies occur. This experiment configuration is the first step on the implementation of Eta-CPTEC/HadCM3 upcoming experiments on climate change studies that are discussed in a companion paper.     

Freshwater transports in HadCM3

The hydrological cycle can influence climate through a great variety of processes. A good representation of the hydrological cycle in climate models is therefore crucial. Attempts to analyse the global hydrological cycle are hampered by a deficiency of suitable observations, particularly over the oceans. Fully coupled general circulation models are potentially powerful tools in interpreting the limited observational data in the context of large-scale freshwater exchanges. We have looked at large-scale aspects of the global freshwater budget in a simulation, of over 1000 years, by the Hadley Centre coupled climate model (HadCM3). Many aspects of the global hydrological cycle are well represented, but the model hydrological cycle appears to be too strong, with overly large precipitation and evaporation components in comparison with the observational datasets we have used. We show that the ocean basin-scale meridional transports of freshwater come into near balance with the surface freshwater fluxes on a time scale of about 400 years, with the major change being a relative increase of freshwater transport from the Southern Ocean into the Atlantic Ocean. Comparison with observations, supported by sensitivity tests, suggests that the major cause of a drift to more saline condition in the model Atlantic is an overestimate of evaporation, although other freshwater budget components may also play a role. The increase in ocean freshwater transport into the Atlantic during the simulation, primarily coming from the overturning circulation component, which changes from divergent to convergent, acts to balance this freshwater budget deficit. The stability of the thermohaline circulation in HadCM3 may be affected by these freshwater transport changes and this question is examined in the context of an existing conceptual model.     

Improving the vegetation dynamic simulation in a land surface model by using a statistical-dynamic canopy interception scheme

Canopy interception of incident precipitation, as a critical component of a forest＇s water budget, can affect the amount of water available to the soil, and ultimately vegetation distribution and function. In this paper, a statistical-dynamic approach based on leaf area index and statistical canopy interception is used to parameterize the canopy interception process. The statistical-dynamic canopy interception scheme is implemented into the Community Land Model with dynamic global vegetation model （CLM-DGVM） to improve its dynamic vegetation simulation. The simulation for continental China by the land surface model with the new canopy interception scheme shows that the new one reasonably represents the precipitation intercepted by the canopy. Moreover, the new scheme enhances the water availability in the root zone for vegetation growth, especially in the densely vegetated and semi-arid areas, and improves the model＇s performance of potential vegetation simulation.     

A regional and global analysis of carbon dioxide physiological forcing and its impact on climate

An increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration has both a radiative (greenhouse) effect and a physiological effect on climate. The physiological effect forces climate as plant stomata do not open as wide under enhanced CO₂ levels and this alters the surface energy balance by reducing the evapotranspiration flux to the atmosphere, a process referred to as ‘carbon dioxide physiological forcing’. Here the climate impact of the carbon dioxide physiological forcing is isolated using an ensemble of twelve 5-year experiments with the Met Office Hadley Centre HadCM3LC fully coupled atmosphere–ocean model where atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are instantaneously quadrupled and thereafter held constant. Fast responses (within a few months) to carbon dioxide physiological forcing are analyzed at a global and regional scale. Results show a strong influence of the physiological forcing on the land surface energy budget, hydrological cycle and near surface climate. For example, global precipitation rate reduces by ~3% with significant decreases over most land-regions, mainly from reductions to convective rainfall. This fast hydrological response is still evident after 5 years of model integration. Decreased evapotranspiration over land also leads to land surface warming and a drying of near surface air, both of which lead to significant reductions in near surface relative humidity (~6%) and cloud fraction (~3%). Patterns of fast responses consistently show that results are largest in the Amazon and central African forest, and to a lesser extent in the boreal and temperate forest. Carbon dioxide physiological forcing could be a source of uncertainty in many model predicted quantities, such as climate sensitivity, transient climate response and the hydrological sensitivity. These results highlight the importance of including biological components of the Earth system in climate change studies.     

Climate change and river flooding: Part 2 sensitivity characterisation for british catchments and example vulnerability assessments

This paper is the second of a series describing a scenario-neutral methodology to assess the sensitivity and vulnerability of British catchments to changes in flooding due to climate change. In paper one, nine flood sensitivity types were identified from response surfaces generated for 154 catchments. The response surfaces describe changes in 20-year return period flood peaks (RP20) in response to a large set of changes in precipitation, temperature and potential evapotranspiration. In this paper, a recursive partitioning algorithm is used to link families of sensitivity types to catchment properties, via a decision tree. The tree shows 85 % success characterising the four sensitivity families, using five properties and nine paths. Catchment annual average rainfall is the primary partitioning factor, with drier catchments having a more variable response to climate (precipitation) change than wetter catchments and higher catchment losses and permeability being aggravating factors. The full sensitivity-exposure-vulnerability methodology is illustrated for two catchments: sensitivity is estimated by using the decision tree to identify the sensitivity family (and its associated average response surface); exposure is defined from a set of climate model projections and combined with the response surface to estimate the resulting impacts (changes in RP20); vulnerability under a range of adaptive capacity thresholds is estimated from the set of impacts. Even though they are geographically close, the two catchments show differing vulnerability to climate change, due to their differing properties. This demonstrates that generalised response surfaces characterised by catchment properties are useful screening tools to quantify the vulnerability of catchments to climate change without the need to undertake a full climate change impact study.     

Effects of Amazonian deforestation on climate: a numerical experiment with a coupled biosphere-atmosphere model with soil hydrology

Summary A coupled biosphere-atmosphere statistical-dynamical model (SDM) is used to study the climatic effects of Amazonian deforestation. A soil moisture model based on BATS has been incorporated into the SDM in order to study the biogeophysical feedback of change in surface characteristics to regional climate due to the deforestation. In the control experiment, the mean annual and mean seasonal climate is well simulated by the model when compared with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. In the deforestation experiment, the evergreen broadleaf trees in the Amazonian region are substituted by short grass. The effects of Amazonian deforestation on regional climate are analysed taking into account the model simulations for the land portion of the latitude belts comprising the tropical region. Amazonian deforestation results in regional climate changes such as a decrease in evaporation, precipitation, available surface net radiation and soil moisture content, and an increase in temperatures and sensible heat flux. The reduction in transpiration was responsible for the most part of the decrease in total evapotranspiration. The reduction in precipitation was larger than the decrease in evapotranspiration so that runoff was reduced. The simulation of the diurnal cycle of the surface temperature shows an increase in temperature during the day and a decrease at night, which is in agreement with observations, whereas earlier GCM experiments showed an increase both during the day and night. In general, the changes in temperature and energy fluxes are in good agreement with GCM experiments, showing that the SDM is able to simulate the characteristics of the tropical climate that are associated with the substitution of forest by pasture areas.     

Comparison of the Influence of Interannual Vegetation Variability between Offline and Online Simulations

This study investigates the influence of interannual vegetation variability. Two sets of offline and online simulations were performed using the Community Earth System Model. The interannual Global LAnd Surface Satellite （GLASS） leaf area index （LAI） dataset from 1985 to 2000 and its associated climatological LAI were used to replace the default climatological LAI data in version 4 of the Community Land Model （CLM4）. The re- sults showed that on a global scale, canopy transpiration and evaporation, as well as total evapotranspiration in offline simulations were significantly positively corre- lated with LAI, whereas ground evaporation and ground temperature showed significant negative correlation with LAI. However, the correlations in online simulations were reduced markedly because of interactive feedbacks between albedo, changed climatic factors and atmospheric variability. In the offline simulations, the fluctuations of differences in interannual variability of evapotranspiration and ground temperature focused on vegetation growing regions and the magnitudes were smaller. Those in online simulations spread over more regions and the magnitudes were larger. These results highlight the influence of interannual vegetation variability, particularly in online simulations, an effect that deserves consideration and attention when investigating the uncertainty of climate change.     

Statistical downscaling of daily mean temperature, pan evaporation and precipitation for climate change scenarios in Haihe River, China

A statistical downscaling method (SDSM) was evaluated by simultaneously downscaling air temperature, evaporation, and precipitation in Haihe River basin, China. The data used for evaluation were large-scale atmospheric data encompassing daily NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the daily mean climate model results for scenarios A2 and B2 of the HadCM3 model. Selected as climate variables for downscaling were measured daily mean air temperature, pan evaporation, and precipitation data (1961–2000) from 11 weather stations in the Haihe River basin. The results obtained from SDSM showed that: (1) the pattern of change in and numerical values of the climate variables can be reasonably simulated, with the coefficients of determination between observed and downscaled mean temperature, pan evaporation, and precipitation being 99%, 93%, and 73%, respectively; (2) systematic errors existed in simulating extreme events, but the results were acceptable for practical applications; and (3) the mean air temperature would increase by about 0.7°C during 2011~2040; the total annual precipitation would decrease by about 7% in A2 scenario but increase by about 4% in B2 scenario; and there were no apparent changes in pan evaporation. It was concluded that in the next 30 years, climate would be warmer and drier, extreme events could be more intense, and autumn might be the most distinct season among all the changes.