冷暖事件对大气能量循环和纬向平均环流影响的模拟研究

利用中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学与地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室新发展的GOALS 5全球海 陆 气耦合模式研究了暖事件 (ElNi no)和冷事件 (LaNina)对大气能量循环和纬向平均环流的影响 ,并用观测资料进行了对比分析。结果表明 :对于纬向平均资料来说 ,冷、暖事件在热带和副热带地区的大气环流相关量的反相变化特征非常清晰 ,中高纬度地区并不明显。此外 ,还发现 ,暖事件时定常涡动的经向热通量的变化是北半球对流层热带外地区温度异常的主要原因 ,而瞬变波的影响则起抵消作用。冷事件时定常波和瞬变波相互抵消的局地特征也依然存在 ,但瞬变波的影响有所增强。     

Leading patterns of the tropical Atlantic variability in a coupled general circulation model

This paper examines the mean annual cycle, interannual variability, and leading patterns of the tropical Atlantic Ocean simulated in a long-term integration of the climate forecast system (CFS), a state-of-the-art coupled general circulation model presently used for operational climate prediction at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. By comparing the CFS simulation with corresponding observation-based analyses or reanalyses, it is shown that the CFS captures the seasonal mean climate, including the zonal gradients of sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean, even though the CFS produces warm mean biases and underestimates the variability over the southeastern ocean. The seasonal transition from warm to cold phase along the equator is delayed 1 month in the CFS compared with the observations. This delay might be related to the failure of the model to simulate the cross-equatorial meridional wind associated with the African monsoon. The CFS also realistically simulates both the spatial structure and spectral distributions of the three major leading patterns of the SST anomalies in the tropical Atlantic Ocean: the south tropical Atlantic pattern (STA), the North tropical Atlantic pattern (NTA), and the southern subtropical Atlantic pattern (SSA). The CFS simulates the seasonal dependence of these patterns and partially reproduces their association with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The dynamical and thermodynamical processes associated with these patterns in the simulation and the observations are similar. The air-sea interaction processes associated with the STA pattern are well simulated in the CFS. The primary feature of the anomalous circulation in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) associated with the NTA pattern resembles that in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) linked with the SSA pattern, implying a similarity of the mechanisms in the evolution of these patterns and their connection with the tropical and extratropical anomalies in their respective hemispheres. The anomalies associated with both the SSA and NTA patterns are dominated by atmospheric fluctuations of equivalent-barotropic structure in the extratropics including zonally symmetric and asymmetric components. The zonally symmetric variability is associated with the annular modes, the Arctic Oscillation in the NH and the Antarctic Oscillation in the SH. The zonally asymmetric part of the anomalies in the Atlantic is teleconnected with the anomalies over the tropical Pacific. The misplaced teleconnection center over the southern subtropical ocean may be one of the reasons for the deformation of the SSA pattern in the CFS.     

与北极涛动或北半球环状模相关的纬向对称的正规模态

作为一个全球气候变率的重要模态,北极涛动或北半球环状模态(AO/NAM)一般由北半球海平面气压变率的EOF1来表示。但是通常认为EOF1仅有统计学意义而并不能够表明它是否是一种实际的物理模态。另一方面,现有的波-流相互作用理论也仅能给出纬向风的纬向平均状况,而不能够保证沿着某一纬圈的变化,所以它并不意味着一个具有半球尺度的纬向对称的相干结构能够组织起来。因此AO/NAM的形成机制仍然是一个具有争议的问题。文章提出纬向对称的或环状的正规模态与基本气候态附近的线性(进而非线性)动力学之间有着最直接的联系,因而可能在AO/NAM动力学的理解中扮演重要角色。为了深入探讨AO/NAM的动力学本质,使用p-坐标球面原始方程计算了冬季北半球及全球气候基本态附近的线性动力系统纬向对称的正规模态,发现在半球尺度上的纬向对称正规模态具有AO/NAM的经向偶极子及垂直方向近似正压的空间结构特征。而这些纬向对称正规模的时间变化尺度取决于与其他非纬向对称正规模间的相互作用。从而说明了AO/NAM可能是半球尺度上纬向对称正规模态的动力学行为的反映。     

Synoptic-scale perturbations in AGCM simulations of the present and Last Glacial Maximum climates

 The conditions of development of mid-latitude depressions (synoptic eddies) in the winter Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 000 years ago) are very different from the present ones: this period is characterised by a general cooling of the extra-tropics, with massive ice sheets over the Northern Hemisphere continents and sea-ice extending very far south over the North Atlantic. The present work uses regression analysis to study the characteristics of the synoptic eddies in present-day and LGM climate simulations by the Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) of the UK Universities' Global Atmospheric Programme (UGAMP). In the LGM experiment, the structure of the Pacific eddies is similar to the present-day (PD) situation, but they are weaker. On the other hand, the Atlantic eddies show an increased zonal wavelength and a much shallower structure in the temperature and vertical wind perturbations. To understand the changes of these characteristics from present-day to LGM, we compare them to those computed for the most unstable modes of the corresponding mean flows, determined using a dry primitive equation model. A normal-mode stability analysis is carried both on zonally symmetric and asymmetric flows for each of the Northern Hemisphere storm-tracks. The changes in the most unstable normal modes found by both these analyses give a good account of changes in the structure of the perturbations as retrieved from the AGCM, suggesting that changes in the mean state (especially the temperature gradient) is the main driver of these changes. However in the case of the present-day Atlantic storm-track, the growth rate of these modes is found to be very low compared to the other cases. A complementary analysis evaluates the importance of non-modal growth, in the form of downstream development of perturbations, for each of the storm-tracks. This type of growth is found to be especially important in the case of the present-day Atlantic storm-track. Received: 29 September 1999 / Accepted: 17 November 1999     

The extratropical sensitivity to the meridional extent of tropical ENSO forcing

The extratropical response to tropical remote forcing has been examined with so-called tropical ocean-global atmosphere experiments, which use prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific and a slab mixed-layer ocean model elsewhere. In this study we have revisited this experimental design and found that the extratropical response is quite sensitive to the meridional extent of tropical prescribed SST domain. Even in the case of a prescribed annual cycle only (i.e., no ENSO), the differences in the prescribed SST regions lead to different atmospheric motions in the adjacent extratropics. When the tropical forcing includes ENSO, the sensitivity to the meridional domain is more prominent, especially during La Niña events. In La Niña, the prescribed SST is warmer than the simulated SST in the northern subtropics, and the warmer SST differences continue to 30°N. This broad SST differences accompany enhanced atmospheric meridional circulation that directly connects the tropics and extratropics within the Pacific basin. Moreover, the Rossby wave excitation also increases, so the effect of prescribed region difference is felt beyond the Pacific basin. On the other hand, the effect of ENSO sea surface temperature anomalie (i.e., ENSO experiment composite minus control experiment annual cycle, both of which have the same prescribed SST domain) is stronger in the broad tropical forcing experiment. However, the ENSO anomaly composite from own annual cycle is similar regardless of the meridional extent of forcing region, and commonly mimics the Northern Hemisphere El Niño composite of nature in the boreal winter season.     

Planetary stationary waves in the atmosphere Part I: Orographic stationary waves

It is proposed that the orographic stationary waves are required by long-term balance of momentum in the at-mosphere with zonally asymmetric orographic forcing, This hypothesis may be confirmed successfully with the theo-retical model of geostrophic waves. In the Part I, we will explain the observed phase distributions of orographic sta-tionary waves at middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, according to the long-term balance of zonal momentum over the stationary orographic forcing. It is revealed that the geographic distribution of stationary waves depends not only on local topgraphy but also on mean circulation fields and angular momentum flux in the atmos-phere. So these waves cannot be simulated by the models in a restricted area.     

纬向平均有效位能和平均动能变化的机制

当非绝热经向不均匀加热作用制造平均有效位能多,而平均有效位能向扰动有效位能输送少时,平均有效位能就增加,反之就减少,这是平均有效位能变化的指数循环振动的主要机制。平均有效位能变化的短期振动主要决定于平均有效位能与扰动有效位能的相互作用。 平均动能变化的振动的主要机制是平均动能与扰动动能的相互作用。     

NUMERICAL STUDY OF TROPICS-EXTRATROPICS INTERACTION

A nonlinear steady-state baroclinic primitive-equation numerical model of atmospheric forced stationarywaves is used to investigate the tropics-extratropics interactions.Newtonian cooling,Rayleigh friction andbiharmonic horizontal diffusion are included in the model.The Eliassen-Palm (EP) cross-section and three-dimensional wave activity flux,which was derived by Plumb (1985) for linear quasi-geostrophic stationarywaves on a zonal flow,are used as diagnostics for the vertical and horizontal propagation of the waves.Results of the numerical experiments and diagnostics analyses suggest that the extratropical influenceon the tropical large-scale motion is important.The mid-latitude orographic forcing,especially of the Qing-hai-Xizang Plateau,and the extratropical thermal forcing make substantial contribution to the main-tenance of the cyclonic circulation over the eastern tropical and subtropical Pacific as well as the inversecirculation over the western Pacific in the upper troposphere.In addition,the longitudinal variation ofdiabatic heating in tropics has a significant influence on the wintertime stationary waves at higher latitudes.     

Some dynamical properties of idealized thermally-forced meridional circulations in the tropics

Summary Through the use of a zonal balance model we investigate the properties of the tropical meridional circulation to a range of specified diabatic forcing fields for climatologically observed zonal winds. As in earlier studies, the solutions show that latent heat release away from the equator forces an asymmetric meridional circulation in response the anisotropy in the inertial stability parameter with respect to the meridional location of the forcing. The presence of strong zonal flows appears to play a relatively minor role in determining the magnitude and asymmetry of the meridional circulation, whereas the structure of the diabatic heating, particularly the meridional breadth, proves to be of much greater importance.A dynamic efficiency factor, which provides an analytic measure of the efficacy of diabatic heating at generating zonal kinetic energy, generally exhibits a meridionally symmetric structure except during Northern Hemisphere summer. This asymmetry gives rise to a pronounced sensitivity of zonal kinetic energy generation to the meridional location of ITCZ convection. Further examination of the flow pattern suggests that for zonal flows representative of those over the Indian Ocean during the Northern Hemisphere summer months, meridional displacements of the heating of less than 20° latitude can result in as much as an order of magnitude difference in the rate of kinetic energy generation. Solution of the balance system also implies the existence of a feedback mechanism, between zonally-organized convection and the energetics properties of the large-scale flow, that is highly sensitive to the meridional location of the convection.With 11 FiguresThe National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

Objective comparison of patterns of CO2 induced climate change in coupled GCM experiments

 Four transient GCM experiments simulating the climatic response to gradually increasing CO₂, and two equilibrium doubled CO₂ experiments are compared. The zonally symmetric and asymmetric features of climate are both examined. Surface air temperature, sea level pressure, the 500 mb height and the relative topography between 500 and 1000 mb are analyzed. In the control simulations, the broad aspects of the present climate are in most cases well reproduced, although the stationary eddies tend to be less reliably simulated than the zonal means. However, the agreement between the four transient experiments on the geographical patterns of climate change is less impressive. While some zonally symmetric features, in particular the meridional distribution of surface air warming in the boreal winter, are rather similar in all models, the intermodel cross correlations for the zonally asymmetric changes are low. The agreement is largely restricted to some very general features such as more warming over the continents than over the oceans. The largest discrepancies between the two equilibrium-doubled CO₂ experiments and the transient experiments are found at the high southern latitudes, in particular in the austral winter. To identify the most robust geographical patterns of change in the transient experiments, the standard t test is used to determine if the four-model mean change is significantly above or below the global mean. Received: 18 January 1996 / Accepted: 5 July 1996     

Blunt ocean dynamical thermostat in response of tropical eastern Pacific SST to global warming

Using an intermediate ocean–atmosphere coupled model (ICM) for the tropical Pacific, we investigated the role of the ocean dynamical thermostat (ODT) in regulating the tropical eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) under global warming conditions. The external, uniformly distributed surface heating results in the cooling of the tropical eastern Pacific “cold tongue,” and the amplitude of the cooling increases as more heat is added but not simply linearly. Furthermore, an upper bound for the influence of the equatorially symmetric surface heating on the cold tongue cooling exists. The additional heating beyond the upper bound does not cool the cold tongue in a systematic manner. The heat budget analysis suggests that the zonal advection is the primary factor that contributes to such nonlinear SST response. The radiative heating due to the greenhouse effect (hereafter, RHG) that is obtained from the multi-model ensemble of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase III (CMIP3) was externally given to ICM. The RHG obtained from the twentieth century simulation intensified the cold tongue cooling and the subtropical warming, which were further intensified by the RHG from the doubled CO₂ concentration simulation. However, the cold tongue cooling was significantly reduced and the negative SST response region was shrunken toward the equator by the RHG from the quadrupled CO₂ concentration simulation, while the subtropical warming increased further. A systematic RHG forced experiment having the same spatial pattern of RHG from doubled CO₂ concentration simulation with different amplitude of forcing revealed that the ocean dynamical response to global warming tended to enhance the cooling in the tropical eastern Pacific by virtue of meridional advection and upwelling; however, these cooling effects could not fully compensate a given RHG warming as the external forcing becomes larger. Moreover, the feedback by the zonal thermal advection actually exerted the warming over the equatorial region. Therefore, as the global warming is intensified, the cooling over the eastern tropical Pacific by ODT and the negative SST response area are reduced.     

The climatological mean atmospheric transport under weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation climate scenario

Global atmospheric transport in a climate subject to a substantial weakening of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) is studied by using climatological Green’s functions of the mass conservation equation for a conserved, passive tracer. Two sets of Green’s functions for the perturbed climate and for the present climate are evaluated from 11-year atmospheric trajectory calculations, based on 3-D winds simulated by GFDL’s newly developed global coupled ocean–atmosphere model (CM2.1). The Green’s function analysis reveals pronounced effects of the climate change on the atmospheric transport, including seasonally modified Hadley circulation with a stronger Northern Hemisphere cell in DJF and a weaker Southern Hemisphere cell in JJA. A weakened THC is also found to enhance mass exchange rates through mixing barriers between the tropics and the two extratropical zones. The response in the tropics is not zonally symmetric. The 3-D Green’s function analysis of the effect of THC weakening on transport in the tropical Pacific shows a modified Hadley cell in the eastern Pacific, confirming the results of our previous studies, and a weakening (strengthening) of the upward and eastward motion to the south (north) of the Equator in the western Pacific in the perturbed climate as compared to the present climate.     

On the ratio between shifts in the eddy-driven jet and the Hadley cell edge

This study explores the relationship between latitudinal shifts in the eddy-driven jet and in the Hadley cell edge as depicted in models and reanalyses. We calculate an interannual shift ratio of approximately 1.5:1 between the eddy-driven jet and the Hadley cell edge over the Southern Hemisphere during austral summer in model data. We further find that the ratio varies from season to season, with similarities between corresponding seasons over each hemisphere. Ratios are broadly consistent between models in this study, and appear to be realistic when compared to those from reanalyses. Mean tropical SSTs and the strength of zonal winds in the tropics appear to be critical to determining the ratio, while sea surface temperature variability is not. We argue that conditions in the tropics act to modulate the effect of midlatitude eddies on the Hadley cell, and the action of eddies in turn explains most of the correlated shifts from year to year. In contrast, the mean state of the tropics is a poor predictor of both the ratio of observed trends in reanalyses and the ratio of modeled externally forced shifts. We show that the ratios of modeled shifts are dependent on the type of external forcing.     

Tropical precipitation regimes and mechanisms of regime transitions: contrasting two aquaplanet general circulation models

The atmospheric general circulation models ARPEGE-climate and LMDz are used in an aquaplanet configuration to study the response of a zonally symmetric atmosphere to a range of sea surface temperature (SST) forcing. We impose zonally-symmetric SST distributions that are also symmetric about the equator, with varying off-equatorial SST gradients. In both models, we obtain the characteristic inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) splitting that separates two regimes of equilibrium (in terms of precipitations): one with one ITCZ over the equator for large SST gradients in the tropics, and one with a double ITCZ for small tropical SST gradients. Transition between these regimes is mainly driven by changes in the low-level convergence that are forced by the SST gradients. Model-dependent, dry and moist feedbacks intervene to reinforce or weaken the effect of the SST forcing. In ARPEGE, dry advective processes reinforce the SST forcing, while a competition between sensible heat flux and convective cooling provides a complex feedback on the SST forcing in the LMDz. It is suggested that these feedbacks influence the location of the transition in the parameter range.     

The influence of tropical Pacific forcing on the Arctic Oscillation

The potential role of tropical Pacific forcing in driving the seasonal variability of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is explored using both observational data and a simple general circulation model (SGCM). A lead–lag regression technique is first applied to the monthly averaged sea surface temperature (SST) and the AO index. The AO maximum is found to be related to a negative SST anomaly over the tropical Pacific three months earlier. A singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis is then performed on the tropical Pacific SST and the sea level pressure (SLP) over the Northern Hemisphere. An AO-like atmospheric pattern and its associated SST appear as the second pair of SVD modes. Ensemble integrations are carried out with the SGCM to test the atmospheric response to different tropical Pacific forcings. The atmospheric response to the linear fit of the model’s empirical forcing associated with the SST variability in the second SVD modes strongly projects onto the AO. Idealized thermal forcings are then designed based on the regression of the seasonally averaged tropical Pacific precipitation against the AO index. Results indicate that forcing anomalies over the western tropical Pacific are more effective in generating an AO-like response while those over the eastern tropical Pacific tend to produce a Pacific-North American (PNA)-like response. The physical mechanisms responsible for the energy transport from the tropical Pacific to the extratropical North Atlantic are investigated using wave activity flux and vorticity forcing formalisms. The energy from the western tropical Pacific forcing tends to propagate zonally to the North Atlantic because of the jet stream waveguide effect while the transport of the energy from the eastern tropical Pacific forcing mostly concentrates over the PNA area. The linearized SGCM results show that nonlinear processes are involved in the generation of the forced AO-like pattern.     

The role of diabatic heating, torques and stabilities in forcing the radial-vertical circulation within cyclones part ii: case study of extratropical and tropical cyclones

Utilizing Eliassen’s concepts, the forcing of the isentropic azimuthally-averaged mass-weighted radial-vertical circulation by diabatic heating and torques within an extratropical cyclone and a typhoon was studied through nu-merical simulations based on the linear diagnostic equation derived previously. The structure of the forcing associated with diabatic heating and torques was determined from quasi-Lagrangian diagnostic analyses of actual case studies. The two cyclones studied were the Ohio extratropical cyclone of 25-27 January 1978 and typhoon Nancy of 18-23 September 1979. The Ohio cyclone, which formed over the Gulf Coast and moved through Ohio and eastern Michigan, was one of the most intense storms with blizzard conditions to ever occur in this region. Typhoon Nancy which occurred over the South China Sea during the FGGE year was selected since relatively high quality assimilated data were available. Within the Ohio cyclone, the dominant internal processes forcing the mean circulation with em-bedded relatively strong hydrodynamic stability were the pressure torque associated with baroclinic (asymmetric) structure and the horizontal eddy angular momentum transport associated with the typical S-shaped thermal and wind structures of self-development. Within typhoon Nancy, the dominant internal process forcing the mean circula-tion with embedded weak hydrodynamic stability was the latent heat release. This analysis shows that the simulated azimuthally-averaged mass-weighted radial motions within these two cy?clones agree quite well with the “observed” azimuthally-averaged mass-weighted radial motions. This isentropic nu?merical study also provides insight into the relatively important internal forcing processes and the trade off between forcing and stability within both extratropical and tropical cyclones.     

Equivalent forcing depth in tropical oceans

The forcing efficiency for the first and the second baroclinic modes by the wind stress in tropical oceans has been discussed by calculating equivalent forcing depth from annual mean, seasonal, and pentadal density profiles of the observational data. In the annual mean field, the first mode is forced preferentially in the western Pacific and the Indian Ocean, whereas the second mode is more strongly excited in the Atlantic and the eastern Pacific. This difference is mostly due to the pycnocline depth; the second mode is more dominantly forced where the pycnocline depth is shallower. We also revealed large seasonal variations of the second mode's equivalent forcing depth in the western Indian Ocean. The first mode is more dominantly forced during boreal spring and fall in the western Indian Ocean, while the second mode becomes more dominantly forced during boreal summer and winter. Those are due to seasonal variations of both the zonal wind and the pycnocline depth. Moreover, we show that the excitation of the second mode in the western Pacific increases after the late 1970s, which is associated with the decreasing trend of the zonal pycnocline gradient. Revealing the variation of the equivalent forcing depth will be useful for understanding the oceanic response to winds in tropical oceans and the improvement in the predictability of air-sea coupled climate variability in the tropics.     

热带大气对单一型赤道非对称热源的响应

本文采用Gill模式得到了热带大气对单一型赤道非对称热源响应的理论解析通解,从理论上完善了单一型赤道非对称热源激发的赤道非对称的大气响应结果。同时在单一型赤道非对称热源的位置、强度及范围变化对大气响应的影响方面做了详细的研究。当热源中心位置北移,北半球气旋强度增加、位置北移,同时赤道辐合气流减弱而越赤道气流增强;当热源强度增强(减弱),热源激发的大气响应整体增强(减弱),但大气分布型不发生变化;当热源范围不断增大(减小)时,北半球气旋强度增强(减弱)、位置西移(东移)、范围增大(减小),同时越赤道气流增强(减弱)。将上述结论应用于分析孟加拉湾地区海温对夏季风爆发影响的研究,指出当孟加拉湾地区经向最大暖海温位于赤道附近时,其两侧表现为Rossby波响应的Gill型气旋环流,而海温暖轴北移后,其南侧激发出有利于季风爆发的越赤道气流,这是Rossby重力混合波对热源响应的结果。这是上述理论结果的一个很好例证,同时也为孟加拉湾夏季风的爆发给出一种动力学解释。     

The relative importance of tropical variability forced from the North Pacific through ocean pathways

To what extent is tropical variability forced from the North Pacific through ocean pathways relative to locally generated variability and variability forced through the atmosphere? To address this question, in this study we use an anomaly-coupled model, consisting of a global, atmospheric general circulation model and a 4½-layer, reduced-gravity, Pacific-Ocean model. Three solutions are obtained; with coupling over the entire basin (CNT), with coupling confined to the tropics and wind stress and heat fluxes in the North and South Pacific specified by climatology (TP), and with coupling confined to the Tropics and wind stress and heat fluxes in the North Pacific specified by output from CNT (NPF). It is found that there are two distinct signals forced in the North Pacific that can impact the tropics through ocean pathways. These two signals are forced by wind stress and surface heat flux anomalies in the subtropical North Pacific. The first signal is relatively fast, impacts tropical variability less than a year after forcing, is triggered from November to March, and propagates as a first-mode baroclinic Rossby wave. The second signal is only triggered during springtime when buoyancy forcing can effectively generate higher-order baroclinic modes through subduction anomalies into the permanent thermocline, and it reaches the equator 4–5 years after forcing. The slow signal is found to initiate tropical variability more efficiently than the fast signal with one standard deviation in subtropical zonal wind stress forcing tropical SST anomalies centered on the equator at 135°W of approximately 0.5°C. Allowing extratropically forced tropical variability is found to shift primarily 2-year ENSO variability in a tropics-alone simulation to a more realistic range of 2–6 years.