水库洪水调度系统的模糊循环迭代模型及应用

多目标水库洪水调度目标的权重确定一直是实际防洪调度中的难点,针对过去单一考虑主观权重或客观权重的多目标决策模式的缺陷,通过引入权重折衷系数的概念,提出了兼顾主观决策与客观决策统一的模糊循环迭代模型,可以同时得到方案优属度和目标权重。由于模型同时考虑了决策者意图和方案本身属性,使方案排序结果更为合理适用,将其应用于水库洪水调度方案的评价中,实例表明,该模型科学、实用。     

基于熵权的属性识别模型在地下水源地水质评价中的应用

为克服在一般水质综合评价过程中确定评价指标权重系数带有专家打分法的主观偏向性,利用Shannon熵理论客观地确定出水质评价指标的熵权系数,并结合程乾生提出的属性识别理论建立了基于熵权的地下水源地水质属性识别模型。首先,建立属性空间矩阵并确定权重,然后计算属性测度,最后利用置信度准则和评分准则对模型做出评价并给出了应用实例。该模型和作者应用SPA模型的评价结果具有很好的一致性。      

基于博弈论综合权重模糊优选模型在地下水环境风险评价中的应用

地下水环境风险评价是地下水可持续利用的前提.目前,评价方法比较单一,主要为突变理论和单因素模糊理论,它们的控制变量数有限,不适用于多目标决策,同时也没有综合考虑主客观权重,评价结果不科学.本文针对以往评价方法的不足,应用基于主客观综合权重的多层多目标模糊可变优选模型评价.模型采用熵权法计算客观权重,二元对比法确定主观权重,并利用博弈论集结模型推导计算了综合权重,并以海河流域地下水环境为例进行了风险评价.计算实例表明,该模型能较好地考虑评价指标的主客观权重,适用于多层多目标评价系统.     

模糊数学在岩质边坡稳定性分析中的应用

模糊评判法作为一种评价边坡稳定性方法,其关键在于能否准确地建立评价模型,是否能准确建立模型的重点在于隶属度与各评价因子权重的确定。在实际工程中,几乎所有研究者都是采用专家打分法来定权重。虽然这一方法应用广泛,但是主观性太强,不够客观合理。采用判断矩阵分析法来确定评价因子的权重,用二级模糊评判对某工程实例进行计算分析,结果表明用该法确定权重简便,亦能较好反映边坡所处状态。     

基于不确定型层次分析法的边坡稳定模糊评判方法

针对边坡稳定性影响因素众多复杂,且存在模糊不确定性和层次性的特点,首先引入锚固边坡稳定性分析二级模糊综合评判模型,并基于模糊数学理论建立评价指标隶属度确定方法和模糊运算规则,从而建立出锚固边坡稳定性分析的二级模糊综合评判方法;然后,考虑评价指标重要程度取值的不确定性、专家判断的模糊性以及群组决策的优势,建立基于群组决策的不确定型层次分析（AHP）方法确定权重,进而建立出基于AHP的锚固边坡稳定模糊评判方法,最后通过工程实例分析和计算,表明文中方法的可行性与合理性。     

基于模糊神经网络的义县萤石成矿预测

成矿预测的模糊综合评判方法中评价因素权重确定时具有较强的人为因素,模糊神经网络方法可以建立在无模型基础上,自动获取输入与输出的关系,在专家确定权重初始值的情况下,通过网络训练确定出最优权重值,这在一定程度上减少了人为因素的影响.应用该方法对义县萤石成矿远景区进行了评价,其评价结果与实际一致.表明该方法可推广到其他区域、其他矿种的预测,但应根据预测对象的实际情况建立控矿因素集和相应的隶属度函数.     

路基下岩溶稳定性评价的模糊多层次多属性决策方法研究

影响高速公路路基下岩溶稳定性的因素很多,影响程度各不相同且包含各种模糊信息。基于实际工程资料,综合运用层次分析方法和模糊多属性决策方法,建立路基下岩溶顶板稳定性评价的模糊多层次多属性决策模型;采用Laagoven和Buckley关于层次分析方法中权重比矩阵元素模糊化的建议,推导出权重比矩阵元素为三角模糊数的模糊权值向量计算公式,再按照模糊平均加权方法（F-SAW）得到每个评语的模糊效应值;最后以此结果进行模糊集排序,得到岩溶顶板稳定性的评语。实际工程的应用结果表明了方法的可行性和有效性,为岩溶区路基稳定性评价提供了新的思路和方法。     

四川卡拉水电站坝址方案优选研究

针对卡拉水电站坝址比选问题,本文基于滑坡风险评价和模糊多属性决策两个方面,分别对坝址比选进行了分析和评价。在滑坡危险性分析、易损性分析和破坏性评价的基础上,通过对滑坡体造成的破坏损失评价,得出基于风险评价的坝址比选结果。同时因坝址方案比选影响因素繁多,建立了坝址方案指标评价体系,对指标进行量化,采用两两比较赋权法确定指标权重,基于模糊多属性决策进行分析得出判断结果。两种方法的比选结果均表明在三个坝址方案中以上坝址方案为最优。     

基于粗糙集条件信息熵的山岭隧道坍塌风险评价

坍塌是山岭隧道施工过程中主要灾害之一。由于影响坍塌的因素众多,且各因素所占的权重差异较大,甚至有些因素是不必要或冗余的。目前常用的评价方法不但未对这些不必要或冗余的因素进行筛选,而且权重的确定过于依赖专家经验和主观赋值,导致风险评价结果精度低、可靠性差。基于此,应用粗糙集理论在数据挖掘、指标筛选和重要性计算方面的优势,将山岭隧道坍塌风险评价构建为粗糙集的决策信息表。但工程试验发现,基于传统依赖度的属性约简及权重计算不能满足要求,存在计算权重为0或约简结果过多,无法取舍的问题。针对以上问题,提出了一种基于条件信息熵的计算方法,该方法将条件信息熵引入到属性重要度和权重的定义中,同时以最重要的条件属性为起点,逐步增添属性,实现属性约简。所建立的方法既能从大量影响因素中,提取出主要影响因素,剔除相对冗余或不重要的因素;同时又能计算得到各因素的客观权重。最后结合模糊综合评价法,建立了基于粗糙集条件信息熵的山岭隧道坍塌风险评价模型,并成功应用于秀村隧道中,表明该模型可靠、实用,为山岭隧道坍塌风险评价提供一条新的研究思路。     

基于模糊相关度的模糊聚类有效性检验方法

本文在模糊聚类算法基础上,提出了对聚类效果进行有效性检验的方法。在考虑不同指标权重、相对隶属度和距离函数的共同作用下,引入模糊划分的类间模糊相关度公式,并定义了聚类有效性函数来优选最佳聚类数,引用划分的平均模糊熵对有效性检验方法确定的最佳聚类数进行验证。通过实例应用,结合成因分析与二元对比法确定各指标权重,对聚类有效性函数的性能进行了检验,分析聚类效果,说明了本文提出的模糊聚类有效性检验方法具有较好的判断功能。     

Unity of the national and the international in the socio-cultural development of the peoples of the USSR

International unity is becoming ever stronger in this country owing to an increasing similarity in the development of the cultural environment. This comprises the provision of all the country's republics with a sufficient number of schools, theatres, and other institutions and cultural information media in accordance with the needs of the population. An important part is played by the rise in ‘the general educational level, as well as the level of professional qualifications and skills. Among all the Soviet nations and nationalities, this rise being more rapid among formerly backward peoples. Prominent among the factors of internationalization is the progressive development of the nationalities’ cultural resources, while professional culture is being increasingly brought within the reach of the masses.The implementation of the nationalities policy promotes the all-round development of all Soviet nations and nationalities, their drawing together, the upsurge of the individual capabilities of every Soviet citizen.     

Deviation of the major axis of the inertia ellipsoid of the Moon from the direction toward the Earth

It is known from observations that the center of mass of the Moon does not coincide with the geometric center of its figure, and the line connecting these two centers is not aligned with the direction toward the center of the Earth, instead deviating toward the Southeast. This stationary deviation of the axis of the inertia ellipsoid of the Moon to the South of the direction toward the Earth is analyzed. A system of five linear differential equations describing the physical libration of the Moon in latitude is considered, and these equations are derived using a new vector method taking into account perturbations from the Earth and partly from the Sun. The characteristic equation of this system is obtained, and all five oscillation frequencies are found. Special attention is paid to the fifth (zero) frequency, for which the solution of the latitude libration equations are stationary and represents a previously unknown additional motion of the rotational axis of theMoon in a cone with a small opening angle. In contrast to the astronomical precession of the Earth, the rotation of the angular-velocity vector is in the positive direction (counter-clockwise), with the period T ₃ = 27.32 days. On this basis, this phenomenon has been named “quasi-precession.” This quasi-precession leads to a stationary inclination of the major axis of the inertia ellipsoid of theMoon to the South (for an observer on Earth), making it possible to explain one component of the observed deviation of the center of mass of the Moon from the direction toward the Earth. The opening angle of the quasiprecession cone is approximately 0.834″.     

Global repeating events in the history of the Earth and the motion of the Sun in the Galaxy

Chronological analyses of correlations between certain global repeating events (mass extinctions of marine organisms, meteorite impacts, and flashes in the frequency of geomagnetic reversals) during the Phanerozoic Eon and the motion of the solar system in the Galaxy are presented for five rotationally symmetrical models for the regular Galactic gravitational field. Thirteen of sixteen mass-extinction events can be described by a repetition interval of 183±3 million years. This is in agreement with the anomalistic period (interval between two subsequent passages of the Sun through the apocenter of its Galactic orbit) in the model of Allen and Martos. The positions of the minima and maxima in Gaussian functions approximating the frequency distribution for geomagnetic reversals also agree with the times of passage of the Sun through the apocenter and pericenter, respectively, of its Galactic orbit in this model. The maximum in the distribution of the deviations of the dates of mass extinctions from the nearest dates of impacts of large, crater-forming bodies is close to zero, providing evidence that many such events are correlated. As a rule, extinctions follow impact events. The impacts of large bodies have occurred most often when the solar system passes through the Galactic plane, while mass extinctions occur more often at some distance from the Galactic plane (about 40 pc). As a rule, intervals of increases in the frequency of geomagnetic reversals coincide with dates of impacts of large bodies. At the same time, these intervals do not show a clear correlation with the dates of mass extinctions. The intensity of mass extinctions, like the energy released by impacts, is consistently higher in periods when the Sun is moving from the apocenter toward the pericenter of its orbit, than when it is moving from the pericenter toward the apocenter. Thus, there is evidence for a variety of relationships between repeating global events in the Phanerozoic and the motion of the Sun in the Galaxy. Long-period variations in the frequency of geomagnetic reversals are correlated with the orbital motion of the Sun, and increases in the frequency of geomagnetic reversals are correlated with impacts. Mass extinctions are correlated with the impacts of large bodies, whose motions may have been perturbed by clouds of interstellar material concentrated toward the Galactic plane and by the shock front associated with the Perseus spiral arm, through which the solar system passes. The velocity of the Sun relative to the spiral pattern is estimated.     

摩擦桩基桩土间极限摩阻力取值问题探讨

通过对广珠东线高速公路横沥大桥的试桩及土体的工程地质条件分析,总结出影响摩擦桩基桩土间极限摩阻力取值的一般问题以及解决问题的方法和措施。     

从榴辉岩与围岩的关系论苏鲁榴辉岩的形成与折返

位于华北和扬子两板块碰撞带中的苏鲁榴辉岩形成的温压条件不但是超高压，而且是高温。榴辉岩的PTt轨迹表明其为陆-陆磁撞俯冲带的产物。榴辉岩的区域性围岩花岗质片麻岩为新元古代同碰撞期花岗岩，榴辉岩及其他直接围岩皆呈包体存在于其中，并见新元古代花岗岩呈脉状侵入榴辉岩包体中。区域性围岩新元古代花岗岩的锆石中发现有柯石英、绿辉石等包裹体，表明新元古代花岗岩的组成物质也经受过超高压变质作用，且榴辉岩与围岩新元古代花岗岩的锆石U-Pb体系同位素年龄基本相同。但新元古代花岗岩所记录的变质作用和变形作用期次（或阶段）却少于榴辉岩。椐上述可得如下推断：超高压榴辉岩与新元古代花岗岩岩浆是同时在碰撞带底部（俯冲板块前部）形成的；榴辉岩的第一折返阶段是由新元古代花岗岩岩浆携带上升的，其第二折返阶段是和新元古代花岗岩一起由逆冲及区域性隆起而上升，遭受剥蚀。     

某高速公路下伏煤矿采空区稳定性分析

在论述某高速公路下伏砦脖煤矿采空区地质、采矿和工程地质特征的基础上, 进行了稳定性数值模拟分析, 定性与定量地分析与评价了该煤矿采空区的地表变形特征及稳定性。研究结果表明: 该煤矿采空区的变形尚未完成, 对拟建的高速公路将产生很大的危害, 必须采取相应的工程治理措施。      

On the consistency of proposed models for the Pyrenees with the structure of the eastern parts of the belt

The structure of the eastern Pyrenees consists mainly of south-directed thrusts involving basement and cover rocks. An antiformal stack developed by the piling up of basement thrust sheets which outcrop in the Axial zone. These structures account for a thin-skinned thrust model rather than a vertical fault model in which the Axial zone would be essentially autochthonous, and the North-Pyrenean fault the axial plane of a fan thrust system. New data from the Eastern Pyrenees and the thin-skinned model suggest that(1) the structure east of the Pedraforca nappe is similar to that of the Central Pyrenees; (2) the cover rocks of the South-Pyrenean units and of the Axial zone-after restoration—built up a northwards-thickening prism consistent with the existence of a unique Pyrenean sedimentary basin during Mesozoic time; (3) the Axial zone is only a complex antiformal stack developed as a part of South-Pyrenean system related to the Paleogene thrusting-tectonics. The Axial zone palaeogeographic area had no special meaning during Mesozoic time.     

Paleomagnetic implications on the evolution of the tethys belt from the atlantic ocean to the pamirs since the triassic

We first re-examined the apparent polar wander curves for stable Eurasia and Africa since the Triassic. These curves were then combined together with curves of North and South America according to the kinematics of the Atlantic ocean and a synthetic polar wander curve was given. Then, most of the paleomagnetic results from the Tethys mobile belt, from the Atlantic to the Pamirs, were analysed.Several groups of plates, microplates and blocks can be seen. First, relatively stable regions like Maghreb and Sicily, which have not moved much. Then we have a group formed by Iberia, Sardinia, Italy and, to a lesser extent, Corsica and the Western and Central Alps. For these blocks, movements are anticlockwise rotations chiefly driven by the anticlockwise rotation of Africa, but they are sometimes stronger.To the east, a major change takes place. The north of the Aegean Sea and the Ionian zone are clockwise rotated and these rotations are recent: Oligocene-Miocene for the first part, Pliocene to the present for the second part.A major problem arises in Turkey, Caucasus and Iran. Paleomagnetic results indicate a position far to the south of Eurasia, and, at the same time, geological evidence is in favour of a position close to Eurasia. We discuss these discrepancies.