Tsunamis in and near Greece and their relation to the earthquake focal mechanisms

The major earthquake-induced tsunamis reliable known to have occurred in and near Greece since antiquity are considered in the light of the recently obtained reliable data on the mechanisms and focal depths of the earthquakes occurring here. (The earthquake data concern the major shocks of the period 1962–1986.) First, concise information is given on the most devastating tsunamis. Then the relation between the (estimated) maximum tsunami intensity and the earthquake parameters (mechanism and focal depth) is examined. It is revealed that the most devastating tsunamis took place in areas (such as the western part of the Corinthiakos Gulf, the Maliakos Gulf, and the southern Aegean Sea) where earthquakes are due to shallow normal faulting. Other major tsunamis were nucleated along the convex side of the Hellenic arc, characterized by shallow thrust earthquakes. It is probably somewhere there (most likely south of Crete) that the region's largest known tsunami occurred in AD 365, claiming many lives and causing extensive devastation in the entire eastern Mediterranean. Such big tsunamis seem to have a return period of well over 1000 years and can be generated by large shallow earthquakes associated with thrust faulting beneath the Hellenic trench, where the African plate subduces under the Euroasian plate. Lesser tsunamis are known in the northernmost part of the Aegean Sea and in the Sea of Marmara, where strike-slip faulting is observed. Finally, an attempt is made to combine the tsunami and earthquake data into a map of the region's main tsunamigenic zones (areas of the sea bed believed responsible for past tsunamis and expected to nucleate tsunamis in the future).     

The Role of Earthquake-Related Effects in Urban Complexes

A number of cases where earthquake-induced damage was massive or presented interesting distribution patterns in recent earthquakes are presented.The highly serious damage along reactivated seismic faults and fractures is discussedfor the earthquakes of Pyrgos (Greece), Egio (Greece) and Kobe (Japan). Additionally, we describe characteristic types of building failure in the earthquake of Egio,caused by the coexistence of surficial faulting and liquefaction. Of particularinterest is the damage pattern in the Kobe and Dinar earthquakes, attributed to seismicwave directivity, caused by migration of the earthquake source. Finally, a specialcase of building damage is described for the case of the Adana, Turkey earthquake,which is connected to the shape and the azimuthal location of buildings in respectto the epicentre. All the above cases are valuable sources of information and can be utilizedin the reduction of seismic risk in constructions and urban complexes.     

Comparison of debris-flow volume and activity under different formation conditions

Debris flows frequently occurred in Wenchuan earthquake region from 2008 to 2010, resulting in great damage to localities and being a prolonged threat to reconstruction. Forty three events' data including debris-flow volume, sediment volume and watershed area are analyzed and compared with other debris-flow events in Eastern Italian Alps, burned areas in USA and in Taiwan. The analysis reveals that there is a strong empirical relationship between debris-flow volume and loose materials volume in the earthquake region. In addition, the relationship between debris-flow volume and watershed area in the earthquake region has a wider variation range than that in other three regions while the debris volume also appears to be larger than that in the other three regions, which implies the volume of debris flows with strong influence of earthquakes is larger than that with no such influence and it is hard to predict the post-quake volume only by the watershed area. The comparison of the maximal debris-flow erosion modulus in the Wenchuan region and in Taiwan indicates that debris flows will be very active in a short time after strong earthquake.     

Tidal triggering of reservoir-associated earthquakes

If the effect of a reservoir is to bring a fault zone gradually to failure and trigger an earthquake, then it is reasonable that rapidly fluctuating tidal stresses may influence the time of the induced earthquakes. An examination of earthquakes from eight reservoirs shows that earthquakes at six sites occur at preferred times in the semidiurnal tidal cycle. Tidal-stress orientations and the phase within the semidiurnal tidal cycle were calculated for only the largest earthquakes occurring at each site. This insures the elimination of aftershocks and selects earthquakes which are independent of each other. Sites of a significant earthquake/tide correlation with less than a 3% chance of occurring randomly include Hebgen Lake, Mont., U.S.A.; Kariba, Rhodesia; Kerr Dam, Mont., U.S.A.; Kremasta, Greece; Lake Mead, Nev., U.S.A.; and Monteynard, France. Each data set includes from about ten to twenty earthquakes. In most of the above cases earthquake triggering seems to occur when tidal stress enhances slip, i.e., when tidal stresses are oriented to enhance the tectonic stress.     

Three-dimensional earthquake locations and upper crustal structure of the Sannio-Matese region (southern Italy)

The Sannio-Matese region is one of the most seismically active regions of Italy and has been struck by large historical earthquakes. At present, the area is characterized by low magnitude background seismicity and small seismic sequences following M4 main events. In this paper, we show Vp and Vp/Vs models and 3D locations for a complete set of earthquakes occurring in the period 1991–2001. We observe a significant crustal heterogeneity, with large scale east-verging high Vp fault-related-folds, stacked by the Pliocene compression. The relocated earthquakes cluster along a 70° east-dipping, NW-striking plane located at the border of the high Vp thrust units. Normal fault earthquakes related to the young and active extension occur within these high Vp zones, interpreted as high strength material. We expect large future earthquakes to occur within these high Vp zones actually characterized by low magnitude seismicity at their borders.     

Location of the pilot borehole for investigations of reservoir triggered seismicity at Koyna,India

Artificial water reservoir triggered earthquakes are now known to have occurred at over 120 sites globally. The part played by the reservoirs in triggering is not exactly known due to lack of near field observations of triggered earthquakes. Koyna, located near the west coast of India, where triggered earthquakes have been occurring since 1962 provides an excellent site for near field observations of the target M ≥ 2 earthquakes. A 6 borehole seismic network has been deployed recently in the Koyna region at depths of 981–1522 m to improve the hypocenter locations. During May–December 2015, a total of 1039 earthquakes of M_L ≥ 0.5 were located using the borehole seismic network. The region is also monitored through a dense network of 23 surface broad-band stations. Our analysis indicates a significant improvement in the estimation of absolute locations of earthquakes with errors of the order of ± 300 m, combining both the networks. Based on seismicity, and logistics, a block of 2 × 2 km² area has been chosen for drilling the first pilot borehole of ~ 3 km depth, where M ≥ 2 earthquakes have been occurring frequently since 2005.     

The tsunami of 426 BC in the Maliakos gulf,eastern Greece

In 427 BC, a major earthquake occurred in ancient Greece. In particular, Attica, Boeotia, and the island of Euboea were the areas where seismic activity was most frequent. The fact that these events happened in conjuction with the Peloponnesian war provides us with an account made by historians of the war. Such an account is the one made by Thucydides. During the spring and summer of 426 BC shocks continued to take place. This time, the sea area between the island of Euboea and the mainland (Maliakos gulf) was also affected and as a result, a seismic sea-wave of considerable size formed. The tsunami, as it is better known, swept the surrounding coastal area. Major topographic alteration of the area occurred, resulting in a huge loss of life and the destruction of cities. In this paper, the author attempts to describe this event and to explain scientifically how it happened, and how this affected the shape of the area and human life. All the evidence used in this paper has been cross-referenced with at least one other historic or scientific source. Although it was extremely difficult to uncover hidden detail about an event so far in the past, any facts that could not be verified have not been included.     

The tsunami of 426 BC in the Maliakos gulf, eastern Greece

In 427 BC, a major earthquake occurred in ancient Greece. In particular, Attica, Boeotia, and the island of Euboea were the areas where seismic activity was most frequent. The fact that these events happened in conjuction with the Peloponnesian war provides us with an account made by historians of the war. Such an account is the one made by Thucydides.During the spring and summer of 426 BC shocks continued to take place. This time, the sea area between the island of Euboea and the mainland (Maliakos gulf) was also affected and as a result, a seismic sea-wave of considerable size formed. The tsunami, as it is better known, swept the surrounding coastal area. Major topographic alteration of the area occurred, resulting in a huge loss of life and the destruction of cities.In this paper, the author attempts to describe this event and to explain scientifically how it happened, and how this affected the shape of the area and human life.All the evidence used in this paper has been cross-referenced with at least one other historic or scientific source. Although it was extremely difficult to uncover hidden detail about an event so far in the past, any facts that could not be verified have not been included.     

Deformation and displacement fields of the Himalayan arc,seismicity and large earthquake hazards in its eastern segment and vicinity

The Himalayan arc is a type of plate margin similar to an island arc and is a world-famous region of tectonic and seismic activities, where a series of large earthquakes have occurred in historical time. In this paper, the vertical deformation and horizontal displacement fields of the Himalayan arc are theoretically derived from the viewpoint of the collision between the Indian and Eurasian plates. In the light of the observed data, the seismicity, earthquake focal mechanism, seismotectonic and geomorphological features of the arc and its vicinity are reasonably explained. The characteristics of seismicity and the possibility of earthquakes with magnitude above 8 occurring in this region in the future are studied.     

Earthquakes in the Eastern Great Lakes Basin from a regional perspective

This paper presents a summary of the seismicity and its relation to stress and geologic structures in the Eastern Great Lakes Basin (EGLB) and compares it with that of other regions in the central and eastern North America (CENA). The earthquakes scattered throughout the EGLB are occurring at a rate somewhat less than that of the Appalachians and along the Atlantic Seaboard. Paleoseismology studies suggest that the lower seismicity rate may be characteristic of the EGLB since the Late Wisconsin. North of the EGLB, earthquakes have primarily thrust mechanisms, while to the south of the EGLB, most earthquakes are strike-slip. Throughout the region, including the EGLB, the average P axes of the earthquakes are oriented NE–SW and are aligned with the direction of the current plate driving stress. On a regional basis, earthquakes are centered primarily in the Precambrian basement beneath the Paleozoic cover. Many of the earthquakes in the EGLB have occurred in areas of preexisting faults, at least some of which may have been active during past episodes of continental rifting. For individual faults that have been studied in some detail, however, it is not clear whether earthquakes represent reactivations of local preexisting structures or nucleation of new ruptures in or near the old fault zones.     

On the possibility of reservoir-induced seismicity in the Garhwal Himalaya

Chander, R., 1991. On the possibility of reservoir-induced seismicity in the Garhwal Himalaya. Eng. Geol., 30: 393–399.

It is argued from a brief review of available evidence that the possibility of reservoir-induced seismicity (RIS) in the Himalaya as a whole cannot be ruled out at the present time. On the other hand, a review of recent local investigations of small earthquakes ( m_b less than 5) and teleseismic investigations of moderate earthquakes (m_b between 5 and 6, mainly) occurring in the Garhwal segment of the Alpide-Himalayan seismic belt provides evidence that RIS in the region can be anticipated. While their epicentral belts coincide geographically, the estimated focal depths of small and moderate earthquakes of the Garhwal Himalaya are in the ranges of 0–14 and 10–20 km, respectively. Small earthquakes occur by reactivation of strike-slip and reverse faults and moderate earthquakes occur on thrust faults. Elsewhere in the world, RIS has been observed most often in the crust at the depths where small earthquakes have been observed in the Garhwal Himalaya. In addition, RIS has been experienced during the impoundment of reservoirs in strike-slip and reverse fault environments, while theoretical analyses indicate that, if suitably located in relation to the reservoir, even a thrust fault may be destabilised by impoundment.     

Magnitude–distance relations for earthquake-induced landslides in Greece

A data set of 47 earthquake-induced landslides occurring in Greece from AD 1650 to 1995 has been compiled, and the landslide distribution has been examined. The spatial distribution indicates landslides occurrence almost everywhere in Greece with the exception of the north Greek mainland, which is likely due to the low occurrence frequency of large earthquakes. The earthquake magnitude, M_s, ranges between 5.3 and 7.9, while the main bulk of events falls within the range 7.5≥M_s≥5.3 with peaks at M_s=6.4 and 6.7. The upper bound of the maximum epicentral distance, R_e, from a reported landslide has been approximated by the line log(R_e)=−2.98+0.75M_s for M_s≥5.3, which is compatible with curves proposed world-wide and constitutes a realistic solution at least for hazard assessment purposes. We discuss the importance of the results for assessing hazards from earthquake-induced landslides and for calculating focal parameters of historical earthquakes.     

Extreme Earthquake and Earthquake Perceptibility Study in Greece and its Surrounding Area

The sample interval for the selection of extreme magnitudes plays an important part in the quality of Gumbel model fitting. A short sample interval can produce many observations, which is helpful in obtaining a reliably fitting model. However a short sample interval can bring many dummy ``observations', a condition which adversely biases the fitting. The short sample interval also increases the chance to introduce non-independent observations as well, which violates a basic requirement of the Gumbel model. On the other hand, a large time interval not only reduces the number of observations, but also enlarges the observation error. Thus, for Greece, the most suitable parameters of the third Gumbel extreme model are obtained by using a sample interval which produces minimum error. In consideration of the reliability of the seismic data, earthquakes with magnitude M 5.5 in Greece and its surrounding region after 1900 are used mainly in the present paper. In order to obtain well resolved contour maps with smooth changes a 2°× 2° cell with half-degree overlap strategy was used to scan the region. The most expected largest earthquake for the next fifty, one hundred and two hundred years are estimated for each cell. Likewise, the events with magnitude at a probability of 90\% of non-exceedance over the next fifty, one hundred and two hundred years are estimated for each cell. In parallel to this procedure we also analyze the 67 shallow seismic zones outlined by Papazachos and his colleagues and detail individual zone results where these are obtained. The most perceptible earthquake magnitude for the range of intensities I = {VI}, VII and VIII are also calculated. All results show that the areas around the Hellenic Arc and the Cephalonia Transform Fault for Greece have comparatively high frequency of destructive earthquakes accompanied by a high occurrence probability of moderate earthquakes (M 5.5).     

The spatial correlation between earthquakes and landslides in Hokkaido (Japan), a GIS-based analysis of the past and the future

Although earthquakes are thought to be one of the factors responsible for the occurrence of landslides in Hokkaido, there exist no enough records which can allow correlating many of the old slope failures in the island with earthquakes. In the absence of these records, an attempt was done in this study to use the abundance, frequency, magnitude, depth, and distribution of historical earthquakes to deduce that many of the slope failures in the region were triggered by strong and continuous seismicity. The determination of the zones of influences of selected earthquakes using an existing empirical function has also supported this conclusion. Moreover, the use of a 10% probability of exceedance of earthquake intensity in 50 years, and the geological and slope maps has allowed preparing a landslide hazard map which explains the role of future earthquakes in the formation of slope failures. The result indicates a high probability of occurrences of landslides in the hilly regions of the southeastern part of Hokkaido due to expected strong seismicity and earthquake intensities in these areas. On the other hand, the low level of intensity in the north has given rise to low probability of landslide hazard. There are also places in the center of the island and high intensity regions in the east where the probability of landslide hazard was influenced by the contribution of the geological and slope maps.     

Specific variations of air temperature and relative humidity around the time of Michoacan earthquake M8.1 Sept. 19, 1985 as a possible indicator of interaction between tectonic plates

The recent development of the Lithosphere–Atmosphere–Ionosphere (LAI) coupling model and experimental data of remote sensing satellites on thermal anomalies before major strong earthquakes have demonstrated that radon emanations in the area of earthquake preparation can produce variations of the air temperature and relative humidity. Specific repeating pattern of humidity and air temperature variations was revealed as a result of analysis of the meteorological data for several tens of strong earthquakes all over the world. The main physical process responsible for the observed variations is the latent heat release due to water vapor condensation on ions produced as a result of air ionization by energetic α-particles emitted by ²²²Rn. The high effectiveness of this process was proved by the laboratory and field experiments; hence the specific variations of air humidity and temperature can be used as indicator of radon variations before earthquakes.We analyzed the historical meteorological data all over the Mexico around the time of one of the most destructive earthquakes (Michoacan earthquake M8.1) that affected the Mexico City on September 19, 1985. Several distinct zones of specific variations of the air temperature and relative humidity were revealed that may indicate the different character of radon variations in different parts of Mexico before the Michoacan earthquake. The most interesting result on the specific variations of atmosphere parameters was obtained at Baja California region close to the border of Cocos and Rivera tectonic plates. This result demonstrates the possibility of the increased radon variations not only in the vicinity of the earthquake source but also at the border of interacting tectonic plates. Recent results on Thermal InfraRed (TIR) anomalies registered by Meteosat 5 before the Gujarat earthquake M7.9 on 26 of January 2001 supports the idea on the possibility of thermal effects at the border of interacting tectonic plates.     

Pliocene and Quaternary regional uplift in western Turkey: the Gediz River terrace staircase and the volcanism at Kula

Along the upper reaches of the Gediz River in western Turkey, in the eastern part of the Aegean extensional province, the land surface has uplifted by 400 m since the Middle Pliocene. This uplift is revealed by progressive gorge incision, and its rate can be established because river terraces are capped by basalt flows that have been K–Ar and Ar–Ar dated. At present, the local uplift rate is 0.2 mm a⁻¹. Uplift at this rate began around the start of the Middle Pleistocene, following a span of time when the uplift was much slower. This was itself preceded by an earlier uplift phase, apparently in the late Late Pliocene and early Early Pleistocene, when the uplift rate was comparable to the present. The resulting regional uplift history resembles what is observed in other regions and is analogously interpreted as the isostatic response to changing rates of surface processes linked to global environmental change. We suggest that this present phase of surface uplift, amounting so far to 150 m, is being caused by the nonsteady-state thermal and isostatic response of the crust to erosion, following an increase in erosion rates in the late Early Pleistocene, most likely as a result of the first large northern-hemisphere glaciation during oxygen isotope stage 22 at 870 ka. We suggest that the earlier uplift phase, responsible for the initial 250 m of uplift, resulted from a similar increase in erosion rates caused by the deterioration in local climate at 3.1 Ma. This uplift thus has no direct relationship to the crustal extension occurring in western Turkey, the rate and sense of which are thought not to have changed significantly on this time scale. Our results thus suggest that the present, often deeply incised, landscape of western Turkey has largely developed from the Middle Pleistocene onwards, for reasons not directly related to the active normal faulting that is also occurring. The local isostatic consequences of this active faulting are instead superimposed onto this “background” of regional surface uplift. Modelling of this surface uplift indicates that the effective viscosity of the lower continental crust beneath this part of Turkey is of the order of 10¹⁹ Pa s, similar to a recent estimate for beneath central Greece. The lower uplift rates observed in western Turkey, compared with central Greece, result from the longer typical distances of fluvial sediment transport, which cause weaker coupling by lower-crustal flow between offshore depocentres and eroding onshore regions that provide the sediment source.     

Implementation of Sugeno: ANFIS for forecasting the seismic moment of large earthquakes over Indo-Himalayan region

The earthquake is known to be an unpredictable geophysical phenomenon. Only few seismic indicators and assumptions of earthquakes can be predicted with probable certainty. This study attempts to analyze the earthquakes over the Indo-Himalayan Border region including Bhutan, Bangladesh, Nepal, China and India during the period from 1995 to 2015. Bangladesh, Bhutan and China borders experience fewer earthquakes than Nepal and India border regions. However, Indo-China rim has inconsistency and vast range in its magnitude. Bangladesh though is a small country with respect to others, but it experiences earthquakes comparable to Bhutan. Nepal experiences highest number of earthquakes. In the last 20 years around 800 records have been observed with moment magnitude > 4.0 Richter scale, while very few records (around 10–12) have been observed for large earthquakes having moment magnitude > 6.0 Richter scale over the region. In this study adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system has been implemented to assess the predictability of seismic moment associated with large earthquakes having the moment magnitude between 6.0 and 8.0 Richter scales using different combination of epochs, technique and membership functions. The Gaussian membership function with hybrid technique and 40 epochs is observed to be the reasonable model on the basis of the selected spatial and temporal scale. The forecast error in terms of root-mean-square error with the stopping criterion 0.001 has been observed to be 0.006 in case of large earthquakes (> 6.5 Richter scale), that is, forecast accuracy of 99.4%. The model bias of 0.6% may be due to inadequate number of large earthquakes having moment magnitude > 6.5 Richter scale over the region.     

Monitoring tectonic movements in the Simitli Graben, SW Bulgaria

Long-term in situ monitoring of slow tectonic movements has been applied to a seismoactive region of SW Bulgaria, within the epicentral zone of one of the strongest earthquakes in Europe (4 April 1904, M=7.8). The region has been found the most seismoactive in Bulgaria being of interest to many scientists. Three spatial extensometers were installed here in carefully selected sites to reflect fault movements on fissures. The extensometer TM-71 used here, enables three-dimensional detecting of even very slow movements with the accuracy of 0.01 mm and high stability over time. After 17 years of measuring, the rates of tectonic movements were established at all three monitoring points. Movements recorded at point B6 located in the seismoactive Kroupnik fault zone are of a relatively high rate. Locally, they show left-lateral strike–slips at rates of ca. 2.7 mm year⁻¹, as well as thrusting with a mean rate of 1.9 mm year⁻¹. Monitoring point K7 located in a fissure of the same zone on a steep slope affected by recent earthquakes has shown an uplift tendency of the block W of the Strouma Fault, with a result of gradual slope subsidence occurring from time to time. Monitoring point K5 located in a fissure of Strouma Fault zone became increasingly active during the last 2 years after 8 years of relative quiescence. Before that, only low left-lateral movements could be observed. Long-term fissure monitoring has shown quite a number of details interpretable to the dynamics of a broad region. Permanent shear displacements were found to develop after earthquakes. It was established that only a certain distinct part of local earthquakes provide such a displacement reaction at the monitoring points showing particular seismic connections.     

2015年尼泊尔8.1级大地震前后喜马拉雅带地震活动图像演变

针对2015年4月25日尼泊尔M8.1地震后喜马拉雅造山带的未来地震危险性问题,通过对喜马拉雅带历史大地震应变能释放和在尼泊尔地震发震前后的区域地震活动图像进行了分析研究。结果发现喜马拉雅带很可能已进入新-轮的地震活跃期。此次尼泊尔大地震不足以将喜马拉雅带中段的地壳应变能全部释放,喜马拉雅带中段的地震活动和藏南裂谷带地震活动具有密切的关联,在喜马拉雅带中段和藏南裂谷带还将有大地震活动。同时研究结果还显示现今在喜马拉雅带的东段存在阿萨姆围空区和不丹围空区,在喜马拉雅的西段出现噶尔围空区,喜马拉雅西段新德里和西藏接壤地区以及喀喇昆仑断裂上噶尔县地区地震危险性很高,喜马拉雅东段林芝山南地区以南的阿萨姆和不丹地区危险性很高,应引起重视。     

Disaster Mitigation vis-á-vis Time of Occurrence and Magnitude of Earthquakes in India

Earthquakes occurring during the night or early morning hours cause a heavy loss of life. Also, an earthquake occurring in the late evening hours poses serious handicap for disaster mitigation efforts due to failure of electricity and blocking of roads due to fall of debris. The larger aftershocks may cause further damage depending upon the magnitude of the main earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 and more in the Indian region. Out of 7 great earthquakes (M >7.8) in the Indian region during the last 200 years, five (1819, 1897, 1905, 1941 and 1950) have occurred during the evening or early morning hours. About 67% of all the earthquakes of magnitude >7.0 show similar result. It is found that in general, the percentage of earthquakes occurring during evening/early morning is larger than that during the daytime. However, the difference in time of occurrence is not significant at 95% level of confidence using ² test. Keeping in view that most of the earthquakes in India of magnitude more than 6 have caused significant damage in the last decade (Uttarkashi, 1991; Latur, 1993; Jabalpur, 1997; Chamoli, 1999) and have occurred in the night/ early morning, disaster management plans need to be designed for awareness and education separately for the night and day times.The limitations of the seismic zoning map with reference to the earthquakes in Koyna (1967) and Latur (1993) have suggested to safeguard the life and property of the Indian population from the effects of future damaging earthquakes which should be failsafe instead of following the code and then introduce further changes in the code. It is suggested that residential houses (including tall structures) should be built for a design earthquake of magnitude 6.0 in all the three seismic zones namely I, II and III demarcated by the Bureau of Indian Standards giving proper weight age to site response. However, for Zones IV and V usual code recommendations may be followed through micro zoning of important, densely populated or most vulnerable areas.