Sunspot-like and ENSO/NAO-like periodicities in lacustrinelaminated sediments of the Pliocene Villarroya Basin (La Rioja,Spain)

This is a study of an extremely good outcrop of 1745 varves inthe Villarroya Pliocene Basin (Spain). The thicknesses of the light and darklayers, which were obtained from enlarged photograph negatives, are dealt withseparately, and three time series, of light, dark, and the sum of both layers,are performed. Periodicities of about 12, 6–7 and 2–3 years havebeen obtained. The origin of the recurrent behaviour of the sediments withthese periods could be related to natural phenomena like sunspot cycles, ElNiño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) andQuasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO), as these phenomena are capable of modulatingthe climate in this frequency band. From our point of view, there could be aclose relationship between sedimentation in the Villarroya Basin and thesenatural phenomena, which is moved through climate. The light layers record therun-off of gastropods, ostracods and charophytes from a seasonal productivitycycle, and are generated during late summer and autumn. It seems clear that theclimatic information provided by these cycles corresponds mainly to summertime, which would be translated into a variation of the light layer thicknessdue to a more or less intense development of the flora and fauna, being thickerin years of higher temperatures and thinner in years of lower temperatures.Considering the results, we would suggest that the sedimentation of thesematerials in the Pliocene was driven by solar activity or/and ENSO, NAO, andQBO phenomena. Nowadays these phenomena produce rainfall and temperaturechanges with the cyclicities shown in this study and we think they could haveoperated in the same way in Pliocene times.     

The influence of ENSO and PDO on tropical Andean glaciers and their impact on the hydrology of the Amazon Basin

Recent decades, particularly since the late 1970s, have witnessed a rapid retreat of glaciers in the tropical Andes. We compiled the changes in glacier surfaces along the eastern cordilleras of the tropical Andes of Peru and Bolivia since the early 1980s from the literature. Water levels from two Brazilian river basins in the Amazon basin (one (Madeira River) glacially fed by meltwater from the Andes and the other (Envira River) non‐glacially fed), were analysed for a 30‐year period between 1985?2014. Furthermore, precipitation data near these two basins were also analysed in order to understand the differential contributions of glacier melting and rainfall. Variations in the water levels from the glacially fed Madeira River showed that some years were associated with higher water levels even when the precipitation remained low during the corresponding season (May‐October). This observation was common when El Niño events occurred during the positive phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Water levels in glacier‐fed Madeira River were slightly higher during the periods where El Niño and warm PDO co‐occurred. On the other hand, water levels in the Envira River were precipitation dependent; water levels were higher when the rainfall was high.     

基于SSA和MGF的海面变化长期预测及对比

海面变化预测受到建模思路、方法选择、数据长度及数据质量等因素的影响,导致了海面变化预测的不确定性。本文以国内6个验潮站自20世纪50年代以来的月平均潮位序列为基础,采用奇异谱分析(SSA)与均值生成函数(MGF)模型相结合的方案,以各站位最初20余年数据为基础建立预测模型,以后续年份的实测数据进行了多方案对比验证及检验。预测试验显示MGF模型具有较高的预测精度,并表现出较好的长期预测的稳定性特点。以SSA去噪序列为基础,应用MGF模型预测了各站位至2050年的月尺度海面值,年均值计算结果表明至2050年海面波动上升的幅度不超过20cm,海面变化速率同样表现出阶段性和波动性。与前人相关研究成果对比表明,本文所采用的SSA与MGF相结合的预测结果具有可比性,在方法原理和验证结果上看具有较好的长期预测潜力。     

厄尔尼诺和南方涛动对中国水稻产量的影响(英文)

This paper aims to demonstrate the relationships between ENSO and rice production of Jiangxi province in order to identify the reason that ENSO might have little effect on Chinese rice production. Using a data set with measures of Jiangxi's climate and rice production,we find the reason that during 1985 and 2004 ENSO's well correlated with rainfall did not promote Chinese rice production. First,the largest effects of ENSO mostly occur in the months when there is no rice in the field. Second,there is almost ...     

Impacts of El Nino-Southern Oscillation events on China’s rice production

This paper aims to demonstrate the relationships between ENSO and rice production of Jiangxi province in order to identify the reason that ENSO might have little effect on Chinese rice production. Using a data set with measures of Jiangxi’s climate and rice production, we find the reason that during 1985 and 2004 ENSO’s well correlated with rainfall did not promote Chinese rice production. First, the largest effects of ENSO mostly occur in the months when there is no rice in the field. Second, there is almost no temperature effect. Finally, the monthly distribution of rainfall is almost the same in ENSO and neutral years because the largest effects are during months when there is the least rain. In addition, due to the high irrigation share and reliable and effective irrigation facilities of cultivated land, China’s rice production is less climate-sensitive.     

Climate oscillations evidenced by spectral analysis of Southern Chilean lacustrine sediments: the assessment of ENSO over the last 600 years

The Chilean Lake District (38–42°S) is strongly influenced by Southern westerlies-driven precipitations. At 40°S Lago Puyehue provides high resolution sedimentation rates (∼1–2 mm/yr) suitable for annual climate reconstruction. Several short and long sediment cores were collected in this lake. Their analysis aim at a better understanding of climate mechanisms related to ENSO in this part of the world. The recognition of ENSO related periodicities and their stability is studied through the analysis of two short varved cores collected from underflow and interflow key sites. According to varve chronology controlled by ¹³⁷Cs and ²¹⁰Pb profiles and chronostratigraphical markers, the short core from underflow site (PU-I) spans 294 ± 18 years and the core in the interflow site (PU-II) covers 592 ± 9 years. Several methods of spectral analysis were applied on the total varve thickness to identify potential periodicities in the signal. Blackman–Tuckey, Maximum Entropy, Multi-Taper Methods (MTM) and singular spectrum analysis were applied on the whole record. In addition, evolutive MTM and wavelet analyses allow to identify temporal influence of some periodicities. In the PU-I studied interval (AD 1700–2000), a period at ∼3.0 years appears in a large part of the interval, mostly in the recent part. Periods at ∼5.2 and ∼23 years also show up. PU-II record (AD 1400–2000) displays the most robust periodicities at around 15, 9, 4.4, 3.2 and 2.4 years. These periodicities are in good agreement with the sub-decadal periods identified by Dean and Kemp (2004) and linked to the El Nino Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Differences in the recorded periodicities between PU-I and PU-II sites are consistent with different sedimentation processes in the lake. According to climate instrumental data for the last 20 years, varves in PU-I site are mostly related to fluvial dynamics and regional climate factors, i.e., precipitation, temperature and wind. In PU-II site, varves increment is related to both regional and global climate forcing factors, i.e., El Nino Southern Oscillation. The evolutive MTM analysis and the wavelet analysis suggest a striking break in the periodicities at around AD 1820. Finally relationships between El Nino and longer term climate phase like the Little Ice Age (LIA) are also assessed. This is the seventh in a series of eight papers published in this special issue dedicated to the 17,900 year multi-proxy lacustrine record of Lago Puyehue, Chilean Lake District. The papers in this special issue were collected by M. De Batist, N. Fagel, M.-F. Loutre and E. Chapron.     

两种形态ENSO对南半球热带外气候变化特征的影响

本研究利用1979—2012年欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)的ORAP5(Ocean Reanalysis Pilot 5)海洋/海冰再分析资料和ERA-Interim气象再分析资料,采用回归分析方法,分1979—1998年和1999—2012年两个时间段探讨了南半球热带外地区气候变化对两种不同形态ENSO的响应特征。结果表明,南半球热带外区域气候在1999年前后两个时段对ENSO的响应表现出了较大的年代际变化特征。1979—1998年南半球热带外气候变量对Nio3指数在时间上的相关性和空间上的响应强度都普遍大于Nio4指数,说明这一时段东部型ENSO对南半球热带外区域气候变化的影响要更强一些。在1999—2012年,不同形态ENSO与气候变量的相关性大小并无明显的规律,而且空间响应场的差异性并不大。海平面气压、风场和气温对ENSO变化的响应在南半球冬季表现最为强烈,在夏季最弱。三者在1999—2012年秋季对Nio3指数和Nio4指数的响应场中出现了纬向三波数结构。1999—2012年冬季,有异于海平面气压和风场,在罗斯海和阿蒙森海海域海表气温对Nio4变化的正响应明显强于对Nio3的响应,该特征在混合层温度中也有体现,表明海表气温随ENSO的变化受海洋特征变化影响较大。混合层深度和混合层温度的响应场之间存在很大的相关性,混合层温度响应在秋季表现最强,春季最弱,混合层深度响应与之相反。在1979—1998年,海冰密集度对不同Nio指数变化的响应差异主要出现在海冰结冰季节,而海冰厚度对不同Nio指数变化的响应差异在夏季表现较强。海冰密集度和厚度对Nio3变化响应的年代际差异在秋冬季节更加明显,对Nio4变化响应的年代际差异在秋、冬、春季都较明显。     

新疆洪旱灾害与大尺度气候强迫因子的联系

通过对新疆洪灾灾害历史资料和太阳黑子、ENSO事件年数据以及北大西洋涛动指数的分析,表明在太阳黑子极低值年或不活跃年,新疆易发生重大洪灾,而在太阳黑子低值年或相对不活跃年,新疆也易发生重大旱灾。近200a来,新疆重大洪旱灾害绝大部分都发生在太阳黑子的低谷时期。ENSO事件对新疆夏季降水的影响效应明显。因而该事件对新疆的洪旱灾害也产生了影响。对近50年来灾害统计资料分析显示,与拉尼娜年相比,在厄尔尼诺年新疆更易发生洪旱灾害。20世纪后半段新疆洪旱灾害指数与北大西洋涛动指数进行对比可以发现．夏季NAO指数与新疆洪水灾害之间存在大致上的反相关系。而冬季NAO指数与新疆干旱灾害之间存在比较明显的反相关系。     

Mesquite (Prosopis glandulosa) germination and survival in black-grama (Bouteloua eriopoda) grassland: relations between microsite and heteromyid rodent (Dipodomys spp.) impact

Prosopis pallida H.B.K. is one of the most economically and ecologically important tree species in the arid and semi-arid lands of the American continent. Sections of P. pallida were used to describe its wood anatomy and to determine whether annual rings were visible or not. Results showed that P. pallida has well-differentiated annual growth rings and is therefore suitable for dendrochronological studies. Tree ring chronologies correlate well with precipitation events related to El Niño Southern Oscillation phases. A master chronology for the northern area of Peru was built with these data, and some physiological derivations from the anatomy of P. pallida wood are discussed.     

ENSO对韶关市1951~2013年降雨侵蚀力影响研究

选取1951~2013年韶关市分月降雨量数据,采用月降雨侵蚀力模型计算降雨侵蚀力,分析ENSO（厄尔尼诺-南方涛动）对韶关市降雨侵蚀力的影响。研究表明：① 韶关市降雨侵蚀力年际变化和年内变化较大,总体呈现波动上升趋势;② 降雨侵蚀力与赤道太平洋SST距平值呈现极显著相关,降雨侵蚀力随SST距平值增加呈现先增加后递减的趋势。ENSO冷暖事件发生时降雨侵蚀力较小,在其它土壤侵蚀因素不变的条件下,此时期的土壤侵蚀相对较轻;③ 降雨侵蚀力与SOI存在显著相关,降雨侵蚀力随着SOI增加而减小;④ 降雨侵蚀力与MEI呈现极显著的正相关关系。     

2000-2014年秦巴山区植被覆盖时空变化特征及其归因

利用MODIS-NDVI数据,辅以趋势分析、Hurst指数及偏相关分析等方法,本文探讨了2000-2014年秦巴山区植被覆盖时空变化特征及未来趋势,并对其驱动因素进行分析。研究发现:1近15年秦巴山区植被覆盖呈显著增加趋势,增速为2.8%/10a,其中2010年之前植被覆盖呈持续增加趋势,增速为4.32%/10a,而2010年之后呈连续下降态势,降速为-6.59%/10a;2空间上,植被覆盖格局呈现"中间高、四周低"的分布特征,高值区主要分布在陕西境内的秦岭山地和大巴山山地;3秦巴山区植被覆盖呈增加和减少趋势的面积分别占81.32%和18.68%;然而,分段结果表明,2010-2014年有71.61%的区域植被覆盖呈下降趋势;4秦巴山区植被覆盖变化的反向特征强于同向特征,其中46.89%的区域将由改善转为退化,而持续改善地区仅占34.44%;5植被覆盖变化主要归因于降水的减少,同时拉尼娜年的植被覆盖整体好于厄尔尼诺年;6人类活动对植被覆盖造成双重影响,是植被覆盖变化的另一重要影响因素。     

Vegetation dynamics in Qinling-Daba Mountains in relation to climate factors between 2000 and 2014

Using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer-normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) dataset, we investigated the patterns of spatiotemporal variation in vegetation coverage and its associated driving forces in the Qinling-Daba (Qinba) Mountains in 2000–2014. The Sen and Mann–Kendall models and partial correlation analysis were used to analyze the data, followed by calculation of the Hurst index to analyze future trends in vegetation coverage. The results of the study showed that (1) NDVI of the study area exhibited a significant increase in 2000–2014 (linear tendency, 2.8%/10a). During this period, a stable increase was detected before 2010 (linear tendency, 4.32%/10a), followed by a sharp decline after 2010 (linear tendency,–6.59%/10a). (2) Spatially, vegetation cover showed a “high in the middle and a low in the surroundings” pattern. High values of vegetation coverage were mainly found in the Qinba Mountains of Shaanxi Province. (3) The area with improved vegetation coverage was larger than the degraded area, being 81.32% and 18.68%, respectively, during the study period. Piecewise analysis revealed that 71.61% of the total study area showed a decreasing trend in vegetation coverage in 2010–2014. (4) Reverse characteristics of vegetation coverage change were stronger than the same characteristics on the Qinba Mountains. About 46.89% of the entire study area is predicted to decrease in the future, while 34.44% of the total area will follow a continuously increasing trend. (5) The change of vegetation coverage was mainly attributed to the deficit in precipitation. Moreover, vegetation coverage during La Nina years was higher than that during El Nino years. (6) Human activities can induce ambiguous effects on vegetation coverage: both positive effects (through implementation of ecological restoration projects) and negative effects (through urbanization) were observed.     

灰色GM(1,1)残差修正模型在滑坡预测中的对比应用

在传统GM(1,1)模型的基础上,经过不同方式的残差修正,分别建立了一阶残差修正GM(1,1)模型和二阶残差修正GM(1,1)模型。根据滑坡的监测资料,对变形曲线为光滑型滑坡(如黄龙西村滑坡、某滑坡)和阶跃型滑坡(如新滩滑坡、洒勒山新滑坡)分别建立了传统GM(1,1)模型和一阶、二阶残差修正模型,并对不同滑坡各模型的预测精度进行了分析比较。结果表明,残差修正GM(1,1)模型的预测精度明显高于传统GM(1,1)模型的预测精度。对变形曲线为光滑型的滑坡,二阶残差修正GM(1,1)模型的预测精度一般高于一阶残差修正GM(1,1)模型的预测精度;对变形曲线为阶跃型的滑坡,一阶残差修正GM(1,1)模型的预测精度高于二阶残差修正GM(1,1)模型的预测精度。     

华南前汛期起讫日期的年际变化及与前汛期降水的关系

根据国家气候中心最新颁布的华南前汛期业务监测标准,采用小波分析、合成分析、相关分析等统计方法研究了1961~2014年华南前汛期入汛日期、出汛日期、持续时间及前汛期累计降水量异常的变异特征。结果表明：华南前汛期入汛日期的年际变化特征主要表现为7~8 a及准2 a周期,年代际变化特征主要表现为20世纪60至70年代入汛偏晚,80年代入汛偏早;华南前汛期出汛日期的年际变化特征主要表现为6~7 a周期,年代际变化特征表现为20世纪60年代中期前出汛偏早,70年代中期以来出汛偏早。华南前汛期入汛早晚对其持续时间及累计降水量有很好的指示意义,表现为入汛越早,华南前汛期持续时间偏长的可能性越大,对应前汛期累计降水量偏多。     

东亚土地覆盖动态与季风气侯年际变化的关系

以东亚地区 １９８２～１９８９年时间序列降水资料及 ＡＶＨＲＲ ８ ｋｍ ＮＤＶＩ数据为基本数据源，应用地理信息系统技术，分别研究了东亚地区夏季（５－９月）降水及土地覆盖的年际变化，并揭示了研究时间段内各自的变化规律。进一步用奇异值分解（ＳＶＤ）模型方法分析了以降水变化为表征的东亚地区气候年际变化与土地覆盖年际变化之间的关系。     

西北太平洋边缘海区海面变化多尺度解析及空间分异

利用MODWT对西北太平洋边缘海区8站位1965~2005年验潮序列进行多尺度分解,讨论了该区域海面变化多尺度波动特征及空间分异。结果显示年周期组分振幅随纬度增大而逐渐增大,半年周期组分振幅以中国沿岸最大,其余站位相对较小。年际尺度的波动中ENSO信号与1~2年尺度的准周期波动存在模态混叠现象,表现为对序列构形和不同时段的相关关系的影响。利用ICA方法从小波分解的年际尺度和信号中分离出的ENSO信号,表明不同纬度海面对ENSO事件的响应整体上呈现向高纬衰减的变化特征。基于小波相似性的分析结果显示,低纬各站海面对ENSO在各尺度上均呈现出显著的负相关,而中高纬地区则呈现出正相关。1980年之前和之后中高纬地区的海面对ENSO的响应出现了显著的差异,这可能与ENSO自身频率的调整有关。     

Long-term fluvial archives in NW France: response of the Seine and Somme rivers to tectonic movements, climatic variations and sea-level changes

The Seine and the Somme are the two main rivers flowing from northwestern France into the Channel. During the Pleistocene cold stages both rivers were tributaries of the River Manche which was exporting sediments into the central deeps of the Channel. The River Seine has a very well developed terrace system recording incision that began at around 1 Ma. The same age is proposed for the beginning of the main incision in the Somme Valley on the basis of morphostratigraphy, pedostratigraphy, palaeontology, palaeomagnetism and ESR datings. The uplift rate deduced from analysis of the Seine and Somme terrace systems is of 55 to 60 m/Ma since the end of the Lower Pleistocene. The response of the two rivers to climatic variations, uplift and sea-level changes is complex and variable in the different parts of the river courses. For example, the evolution of the lower Seine system is influenced by uplift and climate changes but dominated by sea-level changes. In the middle Seine the system is beyond the impact of sea-level variations and shows a very detailed response to climatic variations during the Middle and Upper Pleistocene in a context of uplift. The Somme Valley response appears to be more homogeneous, especially in the middle valley, where the terrace system shows a regular pattern in which incision occurs at the beginning of each glacial period against a general background of uplift. Nevertheless, the lower Somme Valley and the Palaeo-Somme in the Channel area indicate some strong differences compared with the middle valley: influence of sea-level variations and probably differences in rates of tectonic uplift between the Channel and the present continent. The differences in the responses of the two river valleys during the Pleistocene are related to differences in the size of the fluvial basins, to the local tectonic characteristics, to the geometry of the platform connected to the lower parts of the valleys and to the hydrodynamic characteristics of each river. Finally, it is shown from these examples that the multidisciplinary study of Pleistocene rivers is a very efficient tool for the investigation of neotectonic activity.