甘肃张掖M5.0地震前气枪信号走时变化研究

利用祁连山主动源观测系统记录的气枪激发信号资料,通过滤波、叠加、反褶积、互相关等处理,获得了观测系统各台站P波不同震相走时变化数据,发现2019年9月16日张掖M5.0地震前震源区附近台站存在一定的P波走时变化,表明震源区地下结构在震前存在应力状态的改变。     

两次强震发生前后主动源观测走时数据的变化

利用祁连山主动源连续激发台站记录资料,通过不同时间段的多次激发数据叠加处理,可以获取各个地震台的Pg和Sg震相走时变化数据.对震相走时变化数据分析发现,在2015年11月23日祁连5.3级和2016年1月21日门源6.4级地震发生前后震源区附近台站存在明显的震相走时变化,推测导致这种异常变化的原因是震源区的速度发生了改变.这一观测结果说明主动源方法可能成为地震预测的一种新途径.     

2021年云南漾濞MS6.4地震前后主动源观测走时数据的变化

基于2021年5月21日漾濞M_S6.4地震震中附近50 km范围内15个地震观测台站记录的2020年11月1日—2021年5月30日的气枪震源信号,采用互相关时延检测技术提取这15个台站各自稳定震相(Sg震相)的走时变化时间序列,并对漾濞M_S6.4地震前后各台站的走时变化特征进行分析。结果表明:(1)漾濞M_S6.4地震前10天左右,有4个台站走时开始出现异常,其中,Ey211和Ey213台走时呈"V"型变化结构,Ey210和CHT台走时呈上升趋势。(2)漾濞M_S6.4地震后短期内,大部分台站走时出现了明显的趋势性变化,以维西—乔后—巍山断裂为界,断裂带两侧台站走时变化趋势存在明显差异,断裂以东的EYA、HDQ、YSW09台走时呈上升趋势,变化最为显著的为HDQ台,走时差变化量为0.067 s;而断裂带以西的所有台站在漾濞M_S6.4地震当天(或震后1～2天)开始出现明显趋势性下降,走时下降持续时间在4～9天间,走时差变化量在-0.053～-0.201 s间,其中走时差下降量最大为53 285台,最小为CHT台。     

利用祁连山主动源资料研究2016年门源6.4级地震前后波速变化

采用叠加、互相关、插值拟合等方法对祁连山气枪主动源台网数据进行处理,针对2016年1月21日青海门源6.4级地震前后气枪激发地震P波、S波震相的走时变化特征进行了分析,结果表明,地震前约6个月时,震中附近3个台站的相对走时出现下降变化（走时减少）,至震前约3个月时低值异常恢复正常,之后再次出现走时下降变化,地震即发生于走时变化恢复过程中。S波走时变化最大下降幅度达18ms,震后走时变化逐渐恢复正常,且3个台站变化趋势较为一致,其中,距震中最近的台站的S波走时变化最明显（ZDY38台）,较远台站的走时变化幅度较小,其变化特征与震源区位置有关。走时缩短意味着速度增加,可能与区域应力积累间存在一定的关系。     

2017年3月27日漾濞5.1级地震前后气枪震源观测走时数据的变化

以2017年3月27日漾濞5.1级地震为例,根据区域特性和信噪比要求,选取数据较为完整的6个台站记录的2017年1月1日～6月6日期间的宾川地震信号发射台气枪震源波形资料,采用互相关检测技术提取6个台站各自稳定震相的走时数据,并对漾濞5.1级地震前后走时数据的变化情况进行分析。结果表明,漾濞5.1级地震前后6个台站各自稳定震相存在较为明显的走时变化,且短期内走时变化具有较好的同步性,相关台站异常幅度大小和异常出现时间存在细小差异。地震发生前,6个台站走时低值异常过程明显,以YUL台最为显著。地震发生前后走时变化形态特征为双“V”型,漾濞5.1级地震发生在第1个“V”型末端。地震发生后,不同方位相关台站受地震的影响程度不同,走时波动大小存在差异。     

大容量气枪主动源波形资料处理(一):云南宾川

宾川气枪地震信号发射台以水库大容量非调制气枪阵列为震源,可以连续不断地激发重复性极高的地震信号。本文利用其2013年的数据,对地下介质进行了观测。由于水库水位的变化对震源波形及远处台站接收到的地震波形会产生影响,因此,为了区分介质变化与震源变化,研究了陆上水库环境下激发气枪震源所产生的地震波形的特征和合适的处理流程。结果表明:1水库水位变化较大时,同一台站记录的地震波形之间的互相关系数过小,不能直接进行叠加处理,需进行震源聚类分析,而震源聚类受水位变化量的控制;2为消除水位的影响,进行了反褶积处理,当震中距小于10km时,对不同水位激发的信号进行叠加再进行反褶积的效果优于直接进行叠加的效果;3通过互相关计算和信噪比分析发现,4个台站的波形变化可能是由地下介质变化引起的。     

运用尾波干涉技术监测2014年盈江双震期间地壳介质状态的变化

2014云南盈江区域5月下旬接连发生了M_S5.6和M_S6.1级两个地震(双震),双差定位结果显示这次的盈江双震及其余震序列呈明显的时空聚集分布特征.本文基于波形互相关计算方法,挑选了盈江双震期间研究区内的重复地震事件,利用尾波干涉技术,分析地震序列持续期间地壳介质的物性变化.结果显示,在距离震源区较近的台站发现了盈江地震期间走时延迟的变化特征,随着流逝时间的不同,走时延迟变化复杂不一,这种变化可能源于不同路径上散射体的不同变化.其中,S波早期的尾波部分呈现明显的线性变化,可能是震源区附近地壳介质的波速变化所引起.研究发现,在两个主震之间和第二个主震之后走时延迟变化的特点不同,可能表示因不同地壳应力变化导致的介质性质变化.     

云南漾濞县6.4级地震前地电场异常回溯性分析

针对2021年5月21日云南漾濞M_S6.4地震,采用滑动相关性方法和地电场优势方位角方法,开展震中周围200 km范围内地电场台站地震异常的统计特征分析和优势方位角的回溯性研究,发现:(1)通过对漾濞M_S6.4震中周围历史地震事件的统计分析,认为该区域地电场地震异常现象通常在震前约20(±5)天开始出现,如弥渡、祥云和洱源台;(2)漾濞M_S6.4地震前,洱源和祥云台地电场优势方位角在震前约15天或更早时间开始出现异常变化现象;(3)当地电场台站与地震事件处于同一发震断层(或断裂带)时,其观测到地震异常的可能性更大。此外,结合研究区域已有大地电磁测深结果,对地震反映敏感的地电场台站测区下方电性结构特征进行了初步探索,认为当测区位于电阻率边界上时,更易观测到地震地电场异常变化现象,相关研究结论将有望为地电场台站的选址建设、地震异常分析等工作提供技术支撑。     

反卷积在人工震源数据处理中的应用

震源到接收台站之间的地层响应函数能够反映地下介质信息。对地震波传播过程中的卷积模型进行推导:记录信号是众多震源子波经过时移加权叠加的结果;通过反卷积方法可去除震源子波信息,提取震源到接收台站之间的地层响应函数;地层响应函数中第一个突跳值对应的时间即为P波走时。在河北赤城—张北地区进行人工震源实验,通过反卷积计算得到该地区地层响应函数剖面图,得出P波波速约6 km/s。利用人工震源系统还可以对地下介质波速变化进行长期动态监测,对地震预测具有一定意义。     

利用背景噪声研究通海5.0级、墨江5.9级地震震源区波速变化

利用2017年1月31日—2019年12月1日云南数字地震台网的宽频带连续波形资料,基于背景噪声互相关方法,提取了14个台站对当天经验格林函数与参考经验格林函数的直达瑞利波走时偏移来研究2018年通海5.0级、墨江5.9级地震震源区的波速变化特征。结果表明,通海5.0级和墨江5.9级地震都在一定程度上造成了震源区地壳介质速度的变化。地震发生前后,穿过地震震中和震中附近的部分台站对的瑞利波走时偏移在地震发生前的20余天表现出明显的异常特征,且短期内走时变化具有较好的同步性,但异常幅度大小和异常持续时间存在一定差异,异常台站对走时偏移变化形态为"V"或双"V"型结构,两次地震都发生在了第1个"V"型的前端。多台站对组合的平均走时偏移结果显示,两次地震造成的震源区波速的异常持续时间大概都为260 d(通海地震略长于墨江地震),但墨江地震造成的最初的走时偏移变化量和持续时间均高于通海地震。     

A Monte Carlo study of rainfall forecasting with a stochastic model

A procedure for short-term rainfall forecasting in real-time is developed and a study of the role of sampling on forecast ability is conducted. Ground level rainfall fields are forecasted using a stochastic space-time rainfall model in state-space form. Updating of the rainfall field in real-time is accomplished using a distributed parameter Kalman filter to optimally combine measurement information and forecast model estimates. The influence of sampling density on forecast accuracy is evaluated using a series of a simulated rainfall events generated with the same stochastic rainfall model. Sampling was conducted at five different network spatial densities. The results quantify the influence of sampling network density on real-time rainfall field forecasting. Statistical analyses of the rainfall field residuals illustrate improvement in one hour lead time forecasts at higher measurement densities.     

Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration Aims And Scope

正This journal is established by the Institute of Engineering Mechanics(IEM),China Earthquake Administration,to promote scientific exchange between Chinese and foreign scientists and engineers so as to improve the theory and practice of earthquake hazards mitigation,preparedness,and recovery.To accomplish this purpose,the journal aims to attract a balanced number of papers between Chinese and     

Solute concentrations in the lower niger river and the source rock contribution

Water quality analyses for the Niger River for the 1980/81 hydrological year are presented. The samples were collected from the main river at Lokoja, and from two main tributaries, the Kaduna and the Benue Rivers. Different water types were distinguished by the concentrations of major ions. The type Ca > Na > Mg > K - HCO₃ > SO₄ > Cl was represented at all stations during at least part of the year. Chloride was found to dominate the sulphate ion in the Kaduna and Niger, while the Benue maintained a higher concentration of sulphate relative to chloride all year round. Distinct patterns of seasonal variation in the ion concentrations were observed, particularly for the samples collected at Lokoja. Low ion concentrations were prominent during periods of high discharge, while low flow periods coincided with high dissolved ion concentrations. The contribution of rainwater to the total dissolved solids in the river waters was assessed indirectly using rainwater chemistry data from the Gulf of Guinea. The estimated rainwater contribution to the Lower Niger amounts to 5.15 mg 1^?1. Geochemical weathering calculations involving reactions of the four major minerals of granitic rocks - anorthite, biotite, albite, and K-feldspar - with carbon dioxide and water, can account for the average water composition of the Lower Niger. The proportion of the ionic components was also related to the occurrence of the respective element in the minerals.     

Scenario predictions for potential near-field and far-field earthquakes affecting Hong Kong

Historical earthquakes noted in the written records of the South China region, including Hong Kong, are not well delineated along identified prominent fault sources. Despite the lack of any definitive, localised trend in the spatial distribution of seismic activity in the region, there does appear to be some major disparity in the seismic activity rates (especially for large magnitude earthquakes) between the near-field and the far-field regions of Hong Kong. Despite this observation, previous studies of the regional seismic activity and seismic ground motion hazard (the latter using a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, PSHA) have considered very broad source zone regions, in which uniform levels of seismic activity have been assumed. The present paper further scrutinises this broad source zone (BSZ) approach by adopting a novel expanding circular disc (ECD) method to determine the rates of earthquake recurrence. Such a method is intended to counter-check previously developed models by determining earthquake scenario events in terms of magnitude–distance (M–R) pairs or combinations, having defined values of average return period. Unlike the BSZ approach, the ECD method specifically accounts for the supposed variations in the seismic activity rates between events in the near-field and the far-field of Hong Kong.The form of the developed method is particularly suited to the determination of design-level earthquake ground motions for bedrock sites, since it assumes a directionally-independent attenuation model as described in the companion paper. It is found that, whilst the BSZ approach may indicate the overall average levels of hazard that are representative of the South China region as a whole, it does not capture the large disparity in seismic activity rates between near-field and far-field events. This important feature is expected to have a significant impact upon engineering assessments of the seismic safety of structures in Hong Kong and elsewhere in the South China region. For example, it is found that for events with M≥6, the seismic activity rate (normalised by time and area) in the very far-field is around 3.5 times larger than in the near-field and medium-field of Hong Kong. The resulting design M-R combinations, covering a range of return periods from 70 to 2500 years, are limited, for very long return periods and for distant events, by the maximum credible earthquake (MCE) magnitude. Intensive research to determine this seismic hazard parameter is recommended, in order to refine further the results of the ECD analysis, which presently conservatively assumes the MCE to range between M=6 in the near-field of Hong Kong to M=8 in the very far-field, at distances greater than 280 km from Hong Kong.     

Depositional ages and characteristics of Middle–Upper Jurassic and Lower Cretaceous lacustrine deposits in southeastern Mongolia

Lower Cretaceous lacustrine oil shales are widely distributed in southeastern Mongolia. Due to the high organic carbon content of oil shale, many geochemical studies and petroleum exploration have been conducted. Although most of the oil shales are considered to be Early Cretaceous in age, a recent study reveals that some were deposited in the Middle Jurassic. The present study aims at establishing depositional ages and characteristics of the Jurassic and Cretaceous lacustrine deposits in Mongolia. The Lower Cretaceous Shinekhudag Formation is about 250 m thick and composed of alternating beds of shale and dolomite. The Middle Jurassic Eedemt Formation is about 150 m thick and composed of alternating beds of shale, dolomitic marl, and siltstone. The alternations of shale and dolomite in both formations were formed by lake level changes, reflecting precipitation changes. Shales were deposited in the center of a deep lake during highstand, while dolomites were formed by primary precipitation during lowstand. Based on the radiometric age dating, the Shinekhudag Formation was deposited between 123.8 ±2.0 Ma and 118.5 ±0.9 Ma of the early Aptian. The Eedemt Formation was deposited at around 165–158 Ma of Callovian–Oxfordian. The calculated sedimentation rate of the Shinekhudag Formation is between 4.7 ±2.6 cm/ky and 10.0 ±7.6 cm/ky. Shales in the Shinekhudag Formation show micrometer‐scale lamination, consisting of algal organic matter and detrital clay mineral couplets. Given the average thickness of micro‐laminae and calculated sedimentation rate, the micro‐lamination is most likely of varve origin. Both Middle–Upper Jurassic and Lower Cretaceous lacustrine oil shales were deposited in intracontinental basins in the paleo‐Asian continent. Tectonic processes and basin evolution basically controlled the deposition of these oil shales. In addition, enhanced precipitation under humid climate during the early Aptian and the Callovian–Oxfordian was another key factor inducing the widespread oil shale deposition in Mongolia.     

THEORETICAL APPROACH TO THE SOLUTION OF THE INFILTRATION PROBLEM

ABSTRACT

The one-dimensional transient downward entry of water in unsaturated soils is investigated theoretically. The mathematical equation describing the infiltration process is derived by combining Darcy's dynamic equation of motion with the continuity and thermodynamic state equations adjusted for the unsaturated flow conditions. The resulting equation together with the corresponding initial and boundary conditions constitues a mathematical initial boundary value problem requiring the solution of a nonlinear partial differential equation of the parabolic type. The volumetric water content is taken as the dependent variable and the time and the position along the vertical direction are taken as the independent variables. The governing equation is of such nature that a solution exists for t > 0 and is uniquely determined if two relationships are defined, together with the specified state of the system, at the initial time t = 0 and at the two boundaries. The two required relations are those of pressure versus permeability and pressure versus volumetric water content.

Since the partial differential equation has strong non-linear terms, a discrete solution is obtained by approximating the derivatives with finite-differences at discrete mesh points in the solution domain and integrated for the corresponding initial and boundary conditions. The use of an implicit difference scheme is employed in order to generate a system of simultaneous non-linear equations that has to be solved for each time increment. For n mesh points the two boundary conditions provide two equations and the repetition of the recurrence formula provides n—2 equations, the total being n equations for each time increment. The solution of the system is obtained by matrix inversion and particularly with a back-substitution technique. The FORTRAN statements used for obtaining the solution with an electronic digital computer (IBM 704) are presented together with the input data.

Analysis of the errors involved in the numerical solution is made and the stability and convergence of the solution of the approximate difference equation to that of the differential equation is investigated. The method applied is that of making a Fourier series expansion of a whole line of errors and then following the progress of the general term of the series expansion and also the behavior of each constituent harmonic. The errors (forming a continuous function of points in an abstract Banach space) are represented by vectors with the Fourier coefficients constituting a second Banach space. The amplification factor of the difference equation is shown to be always less than unity which guarantees the stability of the employed implicit recurrence scheme.

Experiments conducted on a vertical column packed uniformly with very fine sand, show a satisfactory agreement between the theoretically and experimentally obtained values. Many experimental results are shown in an attempt to explain the infiltration phenomenon with emphasis on the shape and movement of the wet front, and the effects of the degree of compaction, initial water content and deaired water on the infiltration rate.     

Late Permian post‐ophiolitic trondhjemites from Central Iran: a mark of subduction role in growth of Paleozoic continental crust

Late Permian trondhjemites in the Anarak area occur as stocks and dykes, which cross cut the Anarak ophiolite and its overlying metasedimentary rocks, and are exposed along the northern Anarak east–west main faults. These leucocratic intrusive bodies have enclaves of all ophiolitic units and metamorphic rocks. They are composed of amphibole, plagioclase (oligoclase), quartz, zircon and muscovite. Secondary minerals are chlorite (pycnochlorite), epidote, albite, magnetite and calcite. Whole‐rock major‐ and trace‐element analyses reveal that they are characterized by high SiO ₂ (67.8–71.0 wt%), Al ₂ O ₃ (14.9–17.1 wt%) and Na ₂ O (5.3–8.6 wt%), low K ₂ O (0.1–1.5 wt%; average: 0.8 wt%), low Rb/Sr ratio (0.01–0.40; average: 0.09), low Y (3–6 ppm), negative Ti, Nb and Ta anomalies, slightly negative or positive Eu anomaly, LREE enrichment and fractionated HREE. These rocks present 2 to 40 times enrichment in inclined chondrite‐normalized REE patterns. Geochemical characteristics of the Anarak trondhjemites all reflect melting of a mafic protolith at more than 10 kbar. The field evidence and whole‐rock chemistry reveal that these rocks have been crystallized from magmas derived from melting of subducted Anarak oceanic crust. This study reveals that melting of garnet amphibolite was an important element of continent formation in the study area.