浅谈广东省电话气象信息服务的营销策略

根据广东省气象服务的特点，对广东的电话气象信息服务市场，需求和服务定位进行了分析总结，运用SWOT分析法分析了气角信息服务市场竞争中气象部门优劣势，根据广东电话气象信息服务实践过程中的一些经验，提出进一步的发展策略，为全国各地气象部门服务发展提供参考。     

气象部门事业结构调整对策分析

党的十五大报告明确指出 ,要改造和提高传统产业 ,发展新兴产业和高技术产业 ,推进国民经济信息化 ,信息产业化 ,产业信息化 ,将成为国民经济的主要特征和发展方向。2 1世纪 ,将进入知识经济时代 ,气象工作能否成为一种产业———气象信息产业 ,就是本文要探讨的主要问题。1　气象工作有望成为气象信息产业作为知识经济的重要成员　　气象工作按其行业特点 ,应属于第三产业———服务业范畴。而气象服务主要是技术和信息服务 ,理应定位于信息产业 ,不论是第三产业 ,还是第四产业 ,气象工作都有自己的一席之地 ,有广阔的发展空间。关键是如何…     

稳定发展“121”气象信息电话服务

随着市场经济的快速发展和人民生活水平的不断提高 ,气象信息已成了人民生活中的必需品。电话的普及 ,使“12 1”气象信息电话服务以信息传播快、范围广、不受时空地域制约等优点 ,成为气象部门新的经济增长点。实践证明 ,“12 1”气象信息电话服务是发挥气象部门优势 ,投资少 ,见效快 ,发展前景可观的好项目。1　加强领导是“12 1”稳定发展的关键“12 1”气象信息电话服务是与电信系统协作的跨行业、面向社会的服务项目 ,加强领导 ,科学管理 ,统筹安排 ,是“12 1”稳定发展的关键。我局在开展“12 1”项目时 ,是由市气象局和市郊县邮电局…     

事业发展与信息研究室网站信息分析

中国气象局培训中心事业发展与信息研究室（以下简称信息室）的职责是为中国气象局党组及有关职能机构提出包括科技政策、专项计划、国家重大工程建设项目等方面的决策咨询服务；为行业相关部门提供相关的科技咨询与信息服务；收集国内外气象及其相关领域有关信息以及社会、经济、政治、科技等方面信息，并进行分析和研究，提供重要决策建议：负责气象软科学委员会日常事务工作，开展气象软科学及相关科学项目的研究；组织编辑出版《气象软科学》；负责气象行业标准化研究工作，具体负责气象行业标准、技术规范的研究、标准编制、审查、咨询以及档案管理等任务。为充分利用现代化的信息网络技术，进一步发挥信息室的作用，使之真正成为广大气象工作者研究、交流和探讨气象事业发展理论和实践的平台，事业发展与信息研究室网站（http：//edu．cma．gov．cn／info_unit／）在中国气象局培训中心远程教育部的支持和帮助下，于2005年5月正式开通。该网站在第一时间提供信息室主持编辑的出版物《气象软科学》和《咨询报告》电子版，还结合信息室职能开辟了“研究动态”、“事业发展、”“海外气象”、“信息研究”、“专题特写”、“讲座”、“气象标准化”和“资料库”等栏目（表1），     

抓住机遇 大力发展"121"气象咨询电话

近年来,我国121天气预报电话咨询系统发展迅猛,至1997年底,全国已有918个单位组建了121,充分体现出121在气象科技服务中的重要地位.     

气象信息电话咨询服务发展初探

简要概括并分析了百色市多年来气象信息电话发展存在着的问题,并结合多年的实践经验对今后气象信息电话的发展前景和如何提高气象信息电话的整体效益作了初步探讨。     

"121"自动天气查询语音系统

《广东省气象科技服务与产业发展三年计划（１９９７～１９９９）》中提出,今后三年的主要任务和发展项目是以专业有偿服务为主要内容的气象信息综合服务,大力发展市、县电视天气预报节目和“１２１”气象咨询电话,使气象服务具有更广泛的群众和用户,更加生动活泼和方便应用,以满足人们对气象信息日益增长的需要。本文对“１２１”气象咨询电话作一介绍。１　几种天气电话答询系统　　（１）循环磁带录放音,每次天气预报信息需人工录音,由录放机和磁带载体组成。（２）利用电话交换总机的语音信箱功能提供信息广播服务,信息录入同上…     

气象产品分发服务系统

一、前言 准确、方便、迅速地将气象产品传递给用户,从某种意义上说,是间接地提高预报准确率。目前,气象产品分发主要靠电话口传、电视、广播和邮寄等。在经济迅速发展的今天,某些对气象信息敏感的专业用户,已越来越不满足这种方式。他们不仅要求气象部门提供结论性的气象预报产品,还要求提供某些诸如卫星云图、雷达回波等气象信息,而且对气象信息的传递手段也提出了更高的要求。随着80年代计算机通信技术逐渐在我国气象部门普及和使用,一种现代化的气象信息传递工具——远程气象终端诞生     

山区农村气象服务的缺失状况分析

分析了目前山区农村气象服务的现状及不足,发现山区农村民众缺乏气象防灾减灾意识与知识,山区农村气象服务业产品科技含量不高,气象信息传输单向,专业服务人才紧缺。因此提出需改变思维、增加政府投入、加强专业队伍建设、加大科普宣传、实现服务多样化、创新信息传输方法,尝试选用众包模式,提高山区农村气象服务能力和水平。     

陕西气象综合业务服务网站初步设计

“121”是国家规定的专门用来传送天气预报信息的特服电话号码,“121”气象信息服务是社会基础性的公益服务。山西省城太原自1996年开通“121”气象信息电话以来,经过几年的不断发展,已成为省城气象部门发展高新科技信息产业的支柱项目之一,并且取得了一定的经济效益和良好的社会效益。但是,随着市场竞争的日趋激烈,全社会对气象信息服务需求的不断变化,以及经济全球化和我国加入WTO,国际上气象服务商业化对我国气象服务的影响和冲击趋势的日渐显现,“121”也遇到了前所未有的严峻挑战,出现了拨打率徘徊不前、信息费回收率不断下降等问题…     

加强业务管理提高测报质量

我局从1999～2003年,测报工作连续4年未出现错情,在此期间共有1个250个班,9个百班无错通过上级业务部门验收.在仪器保管、使用、维护上符合要求,对外报送的各种表、簿都能做好出门合格.     

On the forecast of the onset and end of the convective season in the Amazon

Summary ?Some features of the climate system that can be considered predictors of the onset and end of the convective season over the Amazon were identified using one-month lag correlations and field composites. The fields analyzed were sea surface temperature (SST), outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR), vertical velocity and upper tropospheric winds. Warm (cold) anomalies in the SST in the tropical North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea tend to be associated with delayed (early) onsets. Likewise, there is a tendency towards a delayed (early) end of the convective season with cold (warm) anomalies in these ocean regions. In addition, the SST in the cold tongue region of the equatorial Pacific is negatively, though weakly correlated with the onset date. The signal of this SST is more evident in the case of the end date, which is earlier with respect to its mean date in most of El Ni?o cases. The convective activity intensity itself conditions the onset and the end of the convective season, as it is evidenced by the behavior of the OLR and the vertical velocity fields. The more (less) intense the convective activity over South America during the preceding month, the earlier the onset and the later the end of the convective season on the Amazon region. The prediction of the onset and end dates of the convective season in the Amazon region was explored using a simple multiple regression technique based on the variables that have shown precursor signals with respect to these dates. The correlation coefficient between the predicted and the observed onset date is 0.81, and in the case of the end date, it is 0.76. The skill to predict early, delayed and normal categories was high, since in more than two thirds of the cases the category was successfully predicted, and there were no predictions of categories opposed to those observed. Received July 23, 2001; revised February 22, 2002; accepted April 26, 2002     

Comparing the theoretical versions of the Beaufort scale, the T-Scale and the Fujita scale

2005 is the bicentenary of the Beaufort Scale and its wind-speed codes: the marine version in 1805 and the land version later. In the 1920s when anemometers had come into general use, the Beaufort Scale was quantified by a formula based on experiment. In the early 1970s two tornado wind-speed scales were proposed: (1) an International T-Scale based on the Beaufort Scale; and (2) Fujita's damage scale developed for North America. The International Beaufort Scale and the T-Scale share a common root in having an integral theoretical relationship with an established scientific basis, whereas Fujita's Scale introduces criteria that make its intensities non-integral with Beaufort. Forces on the T-Scale, where T stands for Tornado force, span the range 0 to 10 which is highly useful world wide. The shorter range of Fujita's Scale (0 to 5) is acceptable for American use but less convenient elsewhere. To illustrate the simplicity of the decimal T-Scale, mean hurricane wind speed of Beaufort 12 is T2 on the T-Scale but F1.121 on the F-Scale; while a tornado wind speed of T9 (= B26) becomes F4.761. However, the three wind scales can be uni-fied by either making F-Scale numbers exactly half the magnitude of T-Scale numbers [i.e. F′half = T / 2 = (B / 4) − 4] or by doubling the numbers of this revised version to give integral equivalence with the T-Scale. The result is a decimal formula F′double = T = (B / 2) − 4 named the TF-Scale where TF stands for Tornado Force. This harmonious 10-digit scale has all the criteria needed for world-wide practical effectiveness.     

准两年振荡对大气中微量气体分布的影响

NCAR的包含化学、辐射、动力相互作用的两维模式（SOCRATES）移植回国后进行了初步的模拟试验,用以研究某些对环境问题重要的微量气体的化学、辐射、动力传输过程。在不考虑极地平流层云和气溶胶表面非均相化学等情况下,模式积分多年,计算结果稳定,模拟的风场、温度场显示出正常的季节变化,模拟的微量气体分布与卫星实测资料对照,结果也比较一致。为了探讨热带平流层风场的准两年周期振荡（QBO）对平流层微量气体分布的影响,我们做了QBO强迫的数值试验,即在模式中加入QBO强迫,并与不考虑QBO强迫的模拟结果对比。结果表明,QBO与其相关的次级环流所引起动力输送的变化,使平流层微量气体分布发生变化。     

Quantifying the uncertainty of the annular mode time scale and the role of the stratosphere

The impact of high resolution modern vegetation cover on the West African climate is examined using the International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model implementing the NCAR Community Land Model. Two high resolution 25 km long-term simulations driven by the output from a coarser 50-km resolution simulation are performed for the period 1998–2010. One high resolution simulation uses an earlier and coarser-resolution version of plant functional type distribution and leaf area index, while the other uses a more recent, higher-quality, and finer-resolution version of the data. The results indicate that the new land cover distribution substantially alters the distribution of temperature with warming in Central Nigeria, northern Gulf of Guinea and part of the Sahel due to the replacement of C4 grass with corn; and cooling along the coastlines of the Gulf of Guinea and in Central Africa due to the replacement of C4 grass with tropical broadleaf evergreen trees. Changes in latent heat flux appear to be largely responsible for these temperature changes with a net decrease (increase) in regions of warming (cooling). The improved land cover distribution also results in a wetter monsoon season. The presence of corn tends to favor larger precipitation amounts via more intense events, while the presence of tropical broadleaf evergreen trees tends to favor the occurrence of both more intense and more frequent events. The wetter conditions appear to be sustained via (1) an enhanced soil moisture feedback; and (2) elevated moisture transport due to increased low-level convergence in regions south of 10N where the most substantial land cover differences are present. Overall the changes induced by the improved vegetation cover improve, to some extent, the performance of the high resolution regional climate model in simulating the main West African summer monsoon features.     

Analysis of the Characteristics of the Low-level Jets in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River during the Mei-yu Season

Here, we analyze the characteristics and the formation mechanisms of low-level jets(LLJs) in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River during the 2010 mei-yu season using Wuhan station radiosonde data and the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ERA5) reanalysis dataset. Our results show that the vertical structure of LLJs is characterized by a predominance of boundary layer jets(BLJs) concentrated at heights of 900–1200 m.The BLJs occur most frequently at 230...     

流场配置及地形对西南低涡形成的动力作用

本文采用定常二层模式讨论较小地形及高、低层流场配置对西南低涡形成的动力作用。指出了西南低涡的形成是与盆地、河谷以及其上气流分层有关的一种定常态.在上、下为西风分层时期,低层的浅薄暖湿西风有利于西南低涡的形成.在上、下为东、西风分层时期,上层浅薄东风亦有利于西南低涡的形成.小型的凸起山脉对西南低涡的形成没有作用.     

由中国历史气候记录对季风导致唐朝灭亡说的质疑

2007年1月4日杂志发表了Yancheva等10人的题为"Influence of the intertropical convergence zone on the East-Asian monsoon"(热带辐合带对东亚季风的影响)的论文[1],这是德国波兹坦地学研究中心气候动力与沉积学科的主管豪格(G.H.Haug)率领的科研小组的一项成果,认为是季风的变化引起的长期干旱导致了唐朝的灭亡.