Hindcasting of Radioactive Contamination of the Kiev Reservoir Using Models of Various Detalisation

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology - Data of 137Cs measurements in the Kiev Reservoir after the Chernobyl accident were used for comparison of simulation results of two multi-chamber models of...     

A dust storm over the Ukraine and Belarus territory contaminated by radionuclides after the Chernobyl accident

A meteorological situation is under consideration during a dust storm observed on September 5–7, 1992 over the Ukraine and Belarus territory contaminated by radionuclide products after the Chernobyl accident. The highest average wind speed in Chernobyl and Pripyat was 10–12 m/s, wind gusts reached 20 m/s. It was found that the radioactive aerosol concentration in the zone of alienation of the Chernobyl NPP increased by one or two orders of magnitude. The transfer of radioactive dust particles to the Vilnius outskirts is recorded.     

Prognostic mapping of radioactive contamination fields formed in the past

New data are obtained on cesium 137 contamination after the Chernobyl NPP accident of settlements, agricultural lands, and forest areas in four Russian regions most affected by the accident: the Bryansk, Kaluga, Orel, and Tula regions. The new information was used to qualify the database on radioactive contamination of these areas. The renewed database was used as a basis for compiling maps on the terrain contamination by cesium 137 in 2006 and a series of prognostic maps with a ten-year interval from 2016 to 2056. The assessment of the dynamics of a change in the zonal areas with different levels of contamination by cesium 137 and the time when the patterns of respective contamination levels disappear in these areas is specified.     

Wet deposition of radionuclides derived from the Chernobyl accident

Chernobyl radioactivity in precipitation was measured at Tsukuba, Japan, as were both surface-air concentrations and particle-size distributions of Chernobyl-released radionuclides. To understand the wet removal processes of the Chernobyl radionuclides, i.e.¹³⁷Cs,¹⁰³Ru, and⁹⁰Sr, wet deposition velocities were calculated. The wet deposition velocities of the Chernobyl radioactivity for individual rainfall events varied largely. The wet deposition velocity is given as the product of washout ratio and rainfall rate. Typically, it was found that the washout ratios of⁹⁰Sr are systematically larger than those of¹³⁷Cs. In order to explain this fact, we examined the relationship between the washout ratios and particle sizes of radionuclide-bearing aerosols. A positive correlation between corrected washout ratios and particle size was found with a particle diameter range from 0.35 to 1.2 µm. The result strongly suggests that the factors controlling the wet removal of the Chernobyl radioactivity for individual rainfall events are surface air concentration, particle size, and rainfall rate, rather than precipitation amount, which is in agreement with previous understandings. This suggests that high contamination areas of radioactivity are formed during heavy rainfall events with high rainfall rates in the case of tropospheric injection such as the Chernobyl accident.     

Radioactive contamination of the Central Russian Upland and its surroundings 21 years after the Chernobyl NPP accident

The Chernobyl NPP accident resulted, due to the western atmospheric transfer, in the formation of a pattern crossing the Central Russian Upland and its surroundings in the latitudinal direction. A volatile long–lived dose-forming radionuclide 137Cs prevailed in the fallout. A peculiar character of the Central Russian Upland division by valleys and balkas could result in a 20–year period in radioactivity displacement down the slop to valleys. This article is devoted to checking the significance of such changes. The issue on revealing the differences between the measured contamination density values 21 years after the depositions and the expected values (calculated with the correction for 137Cs decay) is also under consideration.     

Radiation monitoring in Bryansk Polesie twenty-one years after the Chernobyl NPP accident

Bryansk Polesie is the most ¹³⁷Cs-contaminated region of the Russian Federation after the Chernobyl NPP accident, where in 2007 (i.e., 21 years after the accident), the radiation monitoring was conducted within the Russia-Belarus Union State Program. The paper is based on the comparison of data obtained in the settlements and at the nearby landscape sites outside the villages. The ¹³⁷Cs content variability in the most spread in Polesie soils, the podzols, is considered using observations obtained at the monitoring sites in Svyatsk and Demenka. It is shown that ¹³⁷Cs is fixed at the surface, in the upper soil horizons, which is explained by a high soil sorption capacity. Vast crest-sink floodplains with the great contrast range of the hydromorphic features, which cause great variability of the ¹³⁷Cs vertical distribution, are typical for the Polesie landscape; this fact is confirmed by observations obtained at the monitoring sites located in Starye Bobovichi and Ushcherpie. It is shown that Polesie pine forest contamination maintains higher contamination density levels compared to the nearby settlements, pastures, and meadow lands in the fluvial plains. Extrapolation of the contamination density data obtained within the first decade after the accident as of 2007, performed with allowance for the correction for decay and the comparison of these estimates with the new data accumulated in the recent years, does not show any significant contradiction.     

Assessment of possible mechanisms of decreasing <Superscript>137</Superscript>Cs concentrations in river waters affected by the Chernobyl NPP accident

The analysis of possible mechanisms of ¹³⁷Cs concentration changes in surface waters was performed in the process of preparation of reliable long-range forecasts of radioactive river contamination after the Chernobyl accident. The following mechanisms were considered: (1) radioactive decay; (2) advective transport with river waters; (3) irreversible sorption; (4) vertical migration deep into bottom sediments due to diffusion; (5) burial in clean bottom sediments. The data published on ¹³⁷Cs monitoring at Dobrush, on the Iput’ River in Belarus were used in the analysis. It is shown that the best agreement with the experimental results is achieved when the second, third, and fifth mechanisms are used in calculations. However, a dominating mechanism still cannot be chosen at the present stage of our study. Most probably, all of these mechanisms act simultaneously.     

江苏高速公路收费站一次雷击事故分析

本文对2010年8月3日19时30分沿江高速公路张家港收费站一次严重雷击事故的雷暴过程进行诊断分析,并对其防雷工程存在问题进行综合探讨。分析得出:这次雷暴发生在副热带高压边缘环流形势下,虽副热带高压强大,但大幅度东退,面积明显减小,脊线位置和流场也出现调整。江苏上空由西南气流转为西北气流影响,北方有弱冷空气沿西北气流南下,引发江苏降温,为大气不稳定的增强和触发不稳定能量的释放提供重要条件;本文还分析了雷暴与对流参数关系及演变特征,并探究不稳定参数在雷暴发生中的作用。根据现场调查,分析出这次收费站雷击事故在防雷工程方面存在设备接地、等电位、线路屏蔽、电涌保护器设置、安装和接地电阻等问题,最后针对这些问题提出6点防雷工程整改建议。     

一次雷击事故成因分析及其防御措施

通过对2007年8月7日钦州市某制药厂综合楼遭受一次严重的雷击事故的成因分析,找出其存在的问题和误区,并针对发现的问题提出有效的整改防御措施。     

一次大范围一氧化碳中毒事件的气象条件

冬季是燃煤居民一氧化碳中毒的多发季节。针对2006年2月13—16日发生在吉林省延边州罕见的大范围一氧化碳中毒事件，从大尺度环境条件、气象要素变化特征及与燃煤烟道排烟关系等方面进行了分析。分析延吉近46年冬季（1960—2005年11月-2月）气象观测资料，发现“2．13”一氧化碳中毒事件是在近地面出现强烈逆温、最大逆温层顶高度低、地面接近静风、同时气温明显回升、气压明显下降等气象条件下发生的。此气象要素组合在历史上实属罕见。一氧化碳中毒事件不是某单一气象要素决所定的，而是众多气象要素组合综合作用的结果。     

Climate policies after Fukushima: three views

The 2011 Japanese earthquake and tsunami, and the consequent accident at the Fukushima nuclear power plant, have had consequences far beyond Japan itself. Reactions to the accident in three major economies Japan, the UK, and Germany, all of whom were committed to relatively ambitious climate change targets prior to the accident are examined. In Japan and Germany, the accident precipitated a major change of policy direction. In the UK, debate has been muted and there has been essentially no change in energy or climate change policies. The status of the energy and climate change policies in each country prior to the accident is assessed, the responses to the accident are described, and the possible impacts on their positions in the international climate negotiations are analysed. Finally, the three countries' responses are compared and some differences between them observed. Some reasons for their different policy responses are suggested and some themes, common across all countries, are identified

Policy relevance

The attraction of nuclear power has rested on the promise of low-cost electricity, low-carbon energy supply, and enhanced energy independence. The Fukushima accident, which followed the Japanese tsunami of March 2011, has prompted a critical re-appraisal of nuclear power. The responses to Fukushima are assessed for the UK, Germany, and Japan. Before the accident, all three countries considered nuclear as playing a significant part in climate mitigation strategies. Although the UK Government has continued to support nuclear new build following a prompt review of safety arrangements, Japan and Germany have decided to phase out nuclear power, albeit according to different timescales. The factors that explain the different decisions are examined, including patterns of energy demand and supply, the wider political context, institutional arrangements, and public attitudes to risk. The implications for the international climate negotiations are also assessed.     

北京市夏季电力负荷逐日变率与气象因子关系

利用2006年1月—2010年9月北京市逐日整点电力负荷和逐日气象资料,采用数理统计方法定量分析了北京市夏季电力负荷逐日变率与主要气象因子的关系。结果表明:与最大电力负荷显著相关的气象因子为温度、风速和空气湿度,其中与日最低气温相关性最高 (相关系数为0.65,显著性水平为0.001),当日最低气温高于18℃(或日最高气温高于26℃) 时,其对日最大电力负荷的1℃效应量约为39.7×107W。相对于温度单个因子,同时反映温度和相对湿度综合作用的闷热指数与最大电力负荷的关系更为密切。     

南充交通事故与天气关系的研究

天气变化与交通事故之间存在较为密切的关系,利用2010～2018年南充市交通事故数据及相关气象数据等资料,探讨了不同气象条件对驾驶员、车辆、道路环境等的具体影响,统计分析了南充市所辖区域内交通事故年和月际、逐日变化和事故发生地当时气象要素特征,以及两者的相关性。结果表明:近年来交通事故呈现出逐年减少的趋势,主汛期(5～8月)和冬季是南充市交通事故的高发时期,而春季(3～4月)及秋季(9～11月)交通事故发生相对较少。同时,交通事故发生存在明显的日变化特征,每日07～08时、11～12时、14～15时、18～19时为高发时段;交通事故多发与天气条件具有一定的相关性,尤其是高温、降雨、大雾等天气现象;另外,在不同的天气条件下,有针对性的采取一些措施,可以有效避免交通事故的发生。      

“东方之星”翻沉事件强对流天气分析及数值模拟

2015年6月1日21:32（北京时）左右,"东方之星"号客轮由南京开往重庆途中,行至湖北省荆州市监利县长江大马洲水道时遭遇狂风暴雨天气而翻沉。经调查分析,此次事故是由一次突发罕见的飑线天气伴随的下击暴流袭击所致。使用ARPS模式,同化常规资料及监利县周边4部雷达资料,综合多种观测分析飑线伴随下击暴流过程中系统结构及发展变化特点,结果表明:降水质点的拖曳和下沉气流的共同作用是强对流活动发生发展和下击暴流产生的重要原因,低层干燥、中层湿润的不稳定层结有利于动能向下传输及地面大风的生成。数值模拟表明:地面水平风场大值区、近地面水平和垂直风向风速变化、10 min累积降水量大值中心和组合反射率因子高值区走向呈一致的带状分布,与观测对应良好。受下击暴流直接影响,事故点附近的雷雨大风强度陡增,近地面出现狭窄的阵风锋,风切变明显;事故点附近主要受到超过10 m·s-1的下沉气流和超过18 m·s-1的强烈偏西风共同影响,降水中心分钟降水量超过10 mm。     

如何规范地面人工影响天气作业安全事故调查

为有效解决人工影响天气安全事故调查组织不够严密、调查方法不够完善、调查程序不够简明、调查报告撰写不够规范等问题,增强安全事故调查的科学性、规范性和权威性,运用现代安全管理原理,依据相关法律、法规和业务技术标准,在分析作业安全风险隐患与防控措施、研究安全事故的性质和分类的基础上,从"遵循调查原则、确定调查主体、优化调查流程、明确调查职责、掌握调查方法、科学分析事故、提交调查报告"等7个方面,提出了规范安全事故调查的建议,这将对今后的安全事故调查工作具有重要的指导意义。     

UV-radiation 1983–2003 measured at Norrköping, Sweden

Summary Total ozone has been monitored with high accuracy at many sites for a relative long period of time. This is not the case for UV. The main reason is that UV is difficult to measure accurately. Extensive monitoring started first during the 1990s. However, there are some data series still in operation that were initiated at earlier dates. This paper will discuss one such series from Norrk?ping, Sweden that began in March 1983. The instruments used to measure UV radiation have some characteristics producing an output signal that is not directly related to the UV. Here, these problems are discussed and corrections are applied. The goal is to produce a homogenous and an accurate set of UV data as is possible. An analysis of the various sources of uncertainty is done and summarised as total uncertainty. This was found to be about 6% for the yearly values of CIE weighted UV. However, the precision is much better at about 0.6%. Finally, some results are shown for yearly and seasonal UV. The trends for the full period 1983–2003 are tested for significance. The spring, summer, autumn and yearly data showed a significant increase in UV of respectively 0.8, 0.3, 0.8 and 0.5% per year. To get some indication of the cause of the variation of global radiation (indicator of cloudiness) and total ozone measured at the same site were also processed. A small, but insignificant, decrease of total ozone was found, whilst global radiation showed an increase. It seems that cloudiness is the major factor for the observed variation in UV for this period. The data are available on the internet.     

春夏连旱年降水与大气环流特征

在春夏连续少水年的降水时空分布特征分析的同时,又对少水时逐旬环流配置进行归类分型,并利用500hPa数值预报产品作实时降水过程预报。通过分析,少水年主要天气现象特征是较大降水发生频次少,少水旬约占67%,与其相对应的高空环流特征有77.8%旬环流配置属于不利于降水天气形势。     

我国太阳总辐射月总量资料的均一性检验及订正

采用建站在30a以上的月总辐射资料，以相关性最好的月份为代表月份，以经过均一性检验的日照资料为参考序列，用Potter法进行总辐射资料的均一性检验。结果表明，存在1个或2个间断点的测站占总数的58．6％；无间断点的测站占总数的34．3％。出现间断点的年份以20世纪70年代最多，其次是90年代。90年代初全国辐射仪器的换型对辐射资料没有普遍明显的影响。最后用回归法对存在间断点的绝大多数测站进行了均一性订正，订正后辐射和目照的年平均相关系拊兽谝增大平均增大近5％．     

Analysis of wind instability using the measurements at the chernobyl meteorological station in 2000–2010

Using the data from the Chernobyl meteorological station for 2000–2010 and the wavelet analysis, the seasonal variations are analyzed of the average daily wind speed, wind gusts, wind speed variability, and instability coefficient (the ratio of the maximum wind speed to the average wind speed for each measurement). It is revealed that all parameters have pronounced seasonal variations, and the positions of seasonal maximum and minimum values of all variables under study are shifted relative to each other. The mean values of the shift between the seasonal variations of maximum and the average wind speed amount to 60–70 days, and those of the shift between the average speed and the instability coefficient, to about 145 days. The mentioned peculiarities of the display of seasonal variations are explained by atmospheric turbulent conditions. Proposed is a model that interprets the variability of the parameters under consideration as the statistics of separate eddies in the atmosphere.     

T—lnP图的制作及一些稳定度指数不稳定能量的计算

本文对T－lnP图（即埃玛图）的制作及一些稳定度指数和不稳定能量的计算进行了较为详细的说明，并进行了实际验证，表明用计算机进行温度对数压力图的制作，不仅方便快捷准确，而且能避免人为的误差。