On the initialization of tropical cyclones with a three dimensional variational analysis

A method of initializing tropical cyclones in high-resolution numerical models is developed by modifying a data assimilation system, the NRL atmospheric variational data assimilation system (NAVDAS), which was designed for general mesoscale weather prediction using a three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) analysis with intermittent updates. The method includes the following three upgrades to overcome difficulties resulting from tropical cyclone initialization with the NAVDAS analysis. First, synthetic observation soundings are generated on 9 vertical levels at 49 points for strong storms (v _max?>?23.1?m?s^?1) and 41 points for weak storms around each cyclone center to supplement the observations used by the analysis. Secondly, a vortex relocation method for nested grids is developed to correct the cyclone position in the background fields of the analysis for each nested mesh. Lastly, the 3DVAR analysis is modified to gradually reduce the horizontal length scale and geostrophic coupling constraint near the center of a tropical cyclone for minimizing the problems introduced by improper covariances and coupling constraint used in the analysis. The synthetic observations significantly improve the intensity and structure of the analysis and the track forecast. The vortex relocation significantly improves the first guess background, avoiding the large analysis corrections that would be needed to correct cyclone position, and reducing the imbalance introduced by such large analysis increments. The modifications to the analysis length scale and geostrophic coupling constraint successfully improve the inner core analysis, providing a tighter circulation, and reducing the underestimate of the mass field gradient. Among the three upgrades, the vortex relocation provides the largest improvement to the tropical cyclone initialization and forecast.     

Two-Way Regionalized Classification of Multivariate Datasets and its Application to the Assessment of Hydrodynamic Dispersion

Zones of mixing between shallow groundwaters of different composition were unravelled by “two-way regionalized classification,” a technique based on correspondence analysis (CA), cluster analysis (ClA) and discriminant analysis (DA), aided by gridding, map-overlay and contouring tools. The shallow groundwaters are from a granitoid plutonite in the Fundão region (central Portugal). Correspondence analysis detected three natural clusters in the working dataset: 1, weathering; 2, domestic effluents; 3, fertilizers. Cluster analysis set an alternative distribution of the samples by the three clusters. Group memberships obtained by correspondence analysis and by cluster analysis were optimized by discriminant analysis, gridded over the entire Fundão region, and converted into “two-way regionalized classification” memberships as follows: codes 1, 2 or 3 were used when classification by correspondence analysis and cluster analysis produced the same results; code 0 when the grid node was first assigned to cluster 1 and then to cluster 2 or vice versa (mixing between weathering and effluents); code 4 in the other cases (mixing between agriculture and the other influences). Code-3 areas were systematically surrounded by code-4 areas, an observation attributed to hydrodynamic dispersion. Accordingly, the extent of code-4 areas in two orthogonal directions was assumed proportional to the longitudinal and transverse dispersivities of local soils. The results (0.7–16.8 and 0.4–4.3 m, respectively) are acceptable at the macroscopic scale. The ratios between longitudinal and transverse dispersivities (1.2–11.1) are also in agreement with results obtained by other studies.     

Reliability back analysis of shear strength parameters of landslide with three-dimensional upper bound limit analysis theory

It is essential to determine the shear strength parameters c and φ on the sliding surface for stability evaluation and engineering design of a landslide. In this study, a new parameter back analysis method is proposed by combining the 2D/3D upper bound method of limit analysis and reliability theory to accurately determine the shear strength parameters for a 3D slope with a single failure surface. The proposed reliability back analysis method overcomes the shortcomings of the traditional deterministic analysis method of slope stability that cannot take into account the randomness and uncertainty of geotechnical parameters. Based on the reliability theory, two methods were studied: first-order reliability method (implemented by spreadsheet and Matlab, called spreadsheet method and constrained optimization method, respectively, in this paper) and Monte Carlo simulation. The optimized values of c and φ were obtained by establishing only one balance equation with the consideration of the pore water pressure or other complex conditions, which can solve the problem of the back analysis of strength parameters for a single 3D sliding surface condition. The correlation research showed that the negative correlation between c and φ greatly affected the back analysis results, and the reliability index values were conservative without considering such a negative correlation. A case study for the back analysis of shear strength parameters is conducted based on a practical landslide model with a broken line slip surface slope in Zhuquedong village, Luxi town, Xiangxi County, Hunan Province, China, and a suggestion for the selection of landslide cross section is presented. The results show that the back analysis results determined by the reliability theory coincide well with the survey and experimental results. The proposed method is found to be more accurate and effective in determining the values of shear parameters than that of the traditional deterministic inversion method.     

Effect of hydrochloric acid on grain size analysis of the Quaternary red clay rich in tiny ferromanganese nodules,Jiangxi province,southern China

There are many tiny ferromanganese nodules that cannot be found and eliminated easily in Quaternary red clay in southern China. The existence of these tiny ferromanganese nodules may influence grain size analysis results. Therefore, this paper focuses on the effects of the ferromanganese nodules on the grain size analysis and the effects of hydrochloric acid (HCl) on removing these nodules. The experimental results showed that the nodules clearly influenced the results of grain size analysis. The tiny ferromanganese nodules increased the coarse fraction and show a low peak in the coarse fraction of >100 μm on the frequency curves. The addition of HCl in the pretreatment process of grain size analysis can eliminate the effects of these tiny nodules effectively. Additionally, the HCl reacts with clay minerals and causes a reduction of the <4 μm fraction.     

Deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Gwadar City, Pakistan

Gwadar City is located at the coastline of Pakistan. The city is currently in a phase of development, which is expected to become a future economic hub for Pakistan. This has led us to choose Gwadar for seismic hazard evaluation. Seismic hazard analysis for Gwadar is carried out using deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis techniques. The present study will help in sustainable development of a future large city and economic hub for Pakistan on ways of coping from a major threat of earthquake hazard. In deterministic seismic hazard analysis, line sources were identified close to Gwadar. Based on the analysis of maximum magnitude and closest distance (worse conditions), Makran subduction zone was identified out of all the line sources with earthquake potential of 8.2 at a distance of 30 km. This yielded a peak ground acceleration value of 0.38 g for Gwadar City. In second phase, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis technique with the area source modeling was adopted to acquire results at different return periods. For this purpose, seismic data were collected from the Pakistan Meteorological Department and International Seismological Center (2010) databases for development of a comprehensive data catalog. The a and b values were obtained using regression analysis for each source zone, and probabilistic analysis yielded the results of 0.34 g for a return period of 500 years. As per building codes of Pakistan, areas or cities with ground acceleration greater than 0.32 g are considered in seismic zone 4, and both deterministic and probabilistic hazard analysis place the city in seismic zone 4. These values correspond to rock site with shear wave velocity of 760 m/s.     

Slope stability analysis by means of finite element limit analysis and finite element strength reduction techniques. Part II: Back analyses of a case history

This paper deals with a back analysis of a slope failure. The case history investigated is located in an alpine environment in central Europe and is characterized by a very steep original terrain, indicating in situ soil with high strength. To study the factor of safety, two different approaches applying the so-called φ′/c′ reduction are used, namely finite element limit analysis and strength reduction finite element analysis. Comparison of a strength reduction technique with rigorous finite element limit analysis confirms that the factors of safety (FoS) obtained are very similar for associated plasticity, an intrinsic assumption of limit analysis. For non-associated plasticity, a modified version of the so-called Davis approach has been applied because it has been shown that the original formulation proposed by Davis works well when the FoS is defined in terms of loads but is not appropriate when the FoS is defined in terms of soil strength. The results show that, with the modified Davis parameter, both strength reduction finite element analyses and finite element limit analyses provide very similar factors of safety. The key advantage of limit analysis, however, is that the value of the FoS can be bracketed from above and below with upper and lower bound calculations.     

Log-Ratio Analysis Is a Limiting Case of Correspondence Analysis

It is common practice in compositional data analysis to perform the log-ratio transformation in order to preserve sub-compositional coherence in the analysis. Correspondence analysis is an alternative approach to analyzing ratio-scale data and is often contrasted with log-ratio analysis. It turns out that if one introduces a power transformation into the correspondence analysis algorithm, then the limit of the power-transformed correspondence analysis, as the power parameter tends to zero, is exactly the log-ratio analysis. Depending on how the power transformation is applied, we can obtain as limiting cases either Aitchison’s unweighted log-ratio analysis or the weighted form called “spectral mapping”. The upshot of this is that one can come as close as one likes to the log-ratio analysis, weighted or unweighted, using correspondence analysis.     

Effect of soil variability on the bearing capacity of clay and in slope stability problems

Site-specific geotechnical data are always random and variable in space. In the present study, a procedure for quantifying the variability in geotechnical characterization and design parameters is discussed using the site-specific cone tip resistance data (q_c) obtained from static cone penetration test (SCPT). The parameters for the spatial variability modeling of geotechnical parameters i.e. (i) existing trend function in the in situ q_c data; (ii) second moment statistics i.e. analysis of mean, variance, and auto-correlation structure of the soil strength and stiffness parameters; and (iii) inputs from the spatial correlation analysis, are utilized in the numerical modeling procedures using the finite difference numerical code FLAC 5.0. The influence of consideration of spatially variable soil parameters on the reliability-based geotechnical deign is studied for the two cases i.e. (a) bearing capacity analysis of a shallow foundation resting on a clayey soil, and (b) analysis of stability and deformation pattern of a cohesive-frictional soil slope. The study highlights the procedure for conducting a site-specific study using field test data such as SCPT in geotechnical analysis and demonstrates that a few additional computations involving soil variability provide a better insight into the role of variability in designs.     

电感耦合等离子体质谱联用技术在元素形态分析中的应用进展

电感耦合等离子体质谱(ICP-MS)作为一种高灵敏度的分析技术在痕量超痕量无机元素分析方面已被广泛应用,其与色谱分离技术相结合为元素形态分析提供了强有力的检测工具.本文阐述了近年来利用不同ICP-MS联用技术进行元素形态分析的研究进展,主要包括:①气相色谱-电感耦合等离子体质谱联用技术(GC-ICP-MS);②毛细管电...     

工业在线-电感耦合等离子体发射光谱法分析湿法冶炼硫酸锌溶液中铜镉钴铁

测定湿法冶炼硫酸锌溶液中的杂质元素,有助于优化电解液组成、减少能耗,精准投料,提高冶炼金属的纯度.对于杂质元素的测定,通常采用人工取样分析的方法,因杂质元素的含量较低,主元素锌和硫酸的含量较高,需要对样品进行稀释才能上机分析,难以实现自动化.为满足目前湿法冶炼的产业需求,本文建立了一种自动化工业在线过滤/稀释-电感耦合...     

Multivariate statistical analysis of geochemical data of groundwater in Veeranam catchment area,Tamil Nadu

The study of hydrogeochemistry of the Mio-Pliocene sedimentary rock aquifer system in Veeranam catchment area produced a large geochemical dataset. Groundwater samples were collected at 52 sites over 963.86 km² area and analyzed for major ions. The large number of data can lead to difficulties in the integration, interpretation and representation of the results. Two multivariate statistical methods, Hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) and Factor analysis (FA), were applied to a subgroup of the dataset to evaluate their usefulness to classify the groundwater samples, and to identify geochemical processes controlling groundwater geochemistry. Hydrochemical data for 52 groundwater samples were subjected to Q- and R- mode factor and cluster analysis. R-mode analysis reveals the inter-relations among the variables studied and the Q-mode analysis reveals the inter-relations among the samples studied. The R-mode factor analysis shows that Ca, Mg and Cl with HCO₃ account for most of the electrical conductivity, total dissolved solids and total hardness of groundwater. The ‘single dominance’ nature of the majority of the factors in the R-mode analysis indicates non-mixing or partial mixing of different types of groundwater. Both Q-mode factor and Q-mode cluster analyses indicate an exchange between the river water and the groundwater in the vicinity. The rock water interaction like flood basin back swamp deposits of silty clayey formation is the major cause for the cluster II classification. Cluster classification map reveals that 58% of the study area comes under cluster II classification.     

A comparison of the Iberian and Ebro Basins during the Permian and Triassic, eastern Spain: A quantitative subsidence modelling approach

The Permian–Triassic sediments of the Iberian Plate are a well studied case of classical Buntsandstein–Muschelkalk–Keuper facies, with good sedimentological interpretations and precise datings based on pollen and spore assemblages, ammonoids and foraminifera. Synrift–postrift cycles are recorded in these facies, but there are only a few studies of quantitative subsidence analysis (backstripping method) and only a previous one using forward modelling for the quantification of synrift–postrift phases of this period.Here we present the results obtained by the quantitative analysis of fourteen field sections and oil-well electric log records in the Iberian and Ebro Basins, Spain. Backstripping analysis showed five synrift phases of 1 to 3 million years duration followed by postrift periods for the Permian–Triassic interval. The duration, however, shows lateral variations and some of them are absent in the Ebro Basin. The forward modelling analysis, assuming local isostatic compensation, has been applied to each observation point using one-layer and two-layer lithospheric configurations. The second one shows a better fit between observation and model prediction in a systematic way, so a two layer configuration is assumed for the sedimentary basin filling analysis. Lithospheric stretching factors β and δ obtained in the forward modelling analysis are never higher than 1.2, but sometimes β < 1 and simultaneously δ > 1 in the same section. If surficial extension is compensated by deep compression either at the roots of the rift basins or in far-away zones is not yet clear, but this anomaly can be explained using a simple shear extensional model for the Iberian and Ebro basins.     

The Geoarchaeology of Mudbricks in Architecture: A Methodological Study from Çatalhöyük,Turkey

This article provides a methodology for extracting social information through an analysis of mudbrick compositions, using a case study from Çatalhöyük, Turkey. Particle size analysis, loss on ignition, and magnetic susceptibility were used to examine variability in mudbrick recipe. The analysis revealed that neither magnetic susceptibility nor calcium carbonate were significantly altered through tempering. The results suggest that the greatest degree of compositional variability was a result of the manufacture process and not raw materials used in production. Mudbricks are products of deliberate human actions, similar to any other artifact assemblage, but have been long overlooked. Examining the technology involved with mudbrick manufacture highlights aspects of Neolithic social life through shared resources, production choices, and organization of labor. The analysis of mudbrick compositions considers how raw materials were used within and between groups of houses, represented in 1000 years of uninterrupted occupation at Çatalhöyük.     

Origin of a trend in ECMWF wind analysis and its objective removal

The suitability of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) operational wind analysis for the period 1980–1991 for studying interannual variability is examined. The changes in the model and the analysis procedure are shown to give rise to a systematic and significant trend in the large scale circulation features. A new method of removing the systematic errors at all levels is presented using multivariate EOF analysis. Objectively detrended analysis of the three-dimensional wind field agrees well with independent Florida State University (FSU) wind analysis at the surface. It is shown that the interannual variations in the detrended surface analysis agree well in amplitude as well as spatial patterns with those of the FSU analysis. Therefore, the detrended analyses at other levels as well are expected to be useful for studies of variability and predictability at interannual time scales. It is demonstrated that this trend in the wind field is due to the shift in the climatologies from the period 1980–1985 to the period 1986–1991.     

Creating a regional geography of Britain through the spatial analysis of surnames

This paper undertakes the largest ever quantitative analysis of the distribution of surnames in Great Britain, in order to identify ‘surname regions’. Our empirical analysis uses hierarchical clustering and multidimensional scaling in a computationally intensive analysis of a near complete individual population register of Great Britain. The outcome of this classification is an inductive partitioning of space which, we suggest, reveals a unique and authoritative regional geography that is of use in improving our understanding of population dynamics, as well as of historic and contemporary migration.     

Landslide dam formation susceptibility analysis based on geomorphic features

Global climate change has increased the frequency of abnormally high rainfall; such high rainfall events in recent years have occurred in the mountainous areas of Taiwan. This study identifies historical earthquake- and typhoon-induced landslide dam formations in Taiwan along with the geomorphic characteristics of the landslides. Two separate groups of landslides are examined which are classified as those that were dammed by river water and those that were not. Our methodology applies spatial analysis using geographic information system (GIS) and models the geomorphic features with 20?×?20 m digital terrain mapping. The Spot 6 satellite images after Typhoon Morakot were used for an interpretation of the landslide areas. The multivariate statistical analysis is also used to find which major factors contribute to the formation of a landslide dam. The objective is to identify the possible locations of landslide dams by the geomorphic features of landslide-prone slopes. The selected nine geomorphic features include landslide area, slope, aspect, length, width, elevation change, runout distance, average landslide elevation, and river width. Our four geomorphic indexes include stream power, form factor, topographic wetness, and elevation–relief ratio. The features of the 28 river-damming landslides and of the 59 non-damming landslides are used for multivariate statistical analysis by Fisher discriminant analysis and logistic regression analysis. The principal component analysis screened out eleven major geomorphic features for landslide area, slope, aspect, elevation change, length, width, runout distance, average elevation, form factor, river width, stream power, and topography wetness. Results show that the correctness by Fisher discriminant analysis was 68.0 % and was 70.8 % by logistic regression analysis. This study suggests that using logistic regression analysis as the assessment model for identifying the potential location of a landslide dam is beneficial. Landslide threshold equations applying the geomorphic features of slope angle, angle of landslide elevation change, and river width (H _L/W _R) to identify the potential formation of natural dams are proposed for analysis. Disaster prevention and mitigation measures are enhanced when the locations of potential landslide dams are identified; further, in order to benefit such measures, dam volume estimates responsible for breaches are key.     

基坑坑底稳定性的机会约束评估方法

采用极限平衡理论对基坑坑底稳定性进行分析的方法是根据“确定性”的土体性质、滑动方式计算其抗隆起稳定系数,将运动单元法理论应用于极限平衡理论,并考虑强度折减原理,建立了适应不同类型滑裂面形式的坑底稳定性分析的“确定性”模型,在此基础上,考虑到坑底土力学性能的随机性及其强度参数不能满足约束条件的随机性,建立了机会约束的可靠性分析方法。针对圆弧滑动面和普-瑞法滑裂面进行计算比较,分析了不同滑动面圆心位置、坑底荷载、支撑荷载对支护结构插入比的影响,以及随机约束函数的置信水平对插入比的控制作用。以一工程实例实现了上述分析思想与方法。     

Reliability of digit length impression as a character of tetrapod ichnotaxobase: considerations from the Carboniferous–Permian ichnogenus Ichniotherium

Although the relative length of digit impressions is often adopted as a binding character in ichnotaxa discrimination and trackmaker identification, it cannot be considered unequivocally operative. The reliability of this character has been evaluated by means of principal component analysis on several well‐preserved footprints (both manus and pes) referred to as Ichniotherium sphaerodactylum from the Early Permian Tambach Formation (Thuringia, Germany). The analysis reveals a substantial variability of digit impression length (especially in the manus), relativizing the validity of digit IV length as a diagnostic character as practised in different ichnological studies. Regarding the use of such a character, results clearly suggest the need to preliminarily conduct explorative analysis on the whole available ichnological material in order to detect which digit is the most consistent from an ichnotaxonomical standpoint, thus avoiding an arbitrary selection. Such a preliminary analysis should provide a better control on ichnotaxonomical splitting/lumping, particularly in the case of allied footprints, and can also be considered a valuable tool, if associated to functionality analysis, in improving and refining trackmaker identification. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Practical Procedure for the Measurement of Fragmentation by Blasting by Image Analysis

Summary. The operation of a digital image analysis system in a limestone quarry is described. The calibration of the system, required in order to obtain moderately reliable fragmentation values, is done from muckpile sieving data by tuning the image analysis software settings so that the fragmentation curve obtained matches as close as possible the sieving. The sieving data have also been used to extend the fragment size distribution curves measured to sizes below the system’s optical resolution and to process the results in terms of fragmented rock, discounting the material coming from a loose overburden (natural fines) that is cast together with the fragmented rock. Automatic and manual operation modes of the image analysis are compared. The total fragmentation of a blast is obtained from the analysis of twenty photographs; a criterion for the elimination of outlier photographs has been adopted using a robust statistic. The limitations of the measurement system due to sampling, image processing and fines corrections are discussed and the errors estimated whenever possible. An analysis of consistency of the results based on the known amount of natural fines is made. Blasts with large differences in the amount of fines require a differentiated treatment, as the fine sizes tend to be the more underestimated in the image analysis as they become more abundant; this has been accomplished by means of a variable fines adjustment factor. Despite of the unavoidable errors and the large dispersion always associated with large-scale rock blasting data, the system is sensitive to relative changes in fragmentation.     

Upper-bound multi-rigid-block solutions for bearing capacity of two-layered soils

The limit analysis method has been widely used in the stability analysis of geotechnical problems including the bearing capacity of foundations. Two main approaches have been followed in the limit analysis to improve the calculation of the bearing capacity of foundations. One approach is to combine limit analysis with the finite element method and linear/nonlinear programming. The other is to use a multi-rigid-block mechanism to obtain an upper-bound solution. In this paper, the multi-rigid-block upper-bound method with a modified failure mechanism from that of Florkiewicz [Florkiewicz A. Upper bound to bearing capacity of layered soils. Can Geotech J 1989;26(4):730–6.] was employed to calculate the bearing capacity of foundations. Attention was paid particularly to the bearing capacity of strip footings over a two-layered soil. In order to verify the effectiveness of the modified mechanism, comparisons were made with other well-known solutions. The results showed improvements over the best available multi-rigid-block upper-bound solutions given by Michalowski and Shi [Michalowski RL, Shi L. Bearing capacity of footings over two-layer foundation soils. J Geotech Eng ASCE 1995;121(5):421–8.], and fair consistence with the results from the finite element limit analysis in Shiau et al. [Shiau JS, Lyamin AV, Sloan SW. Bearing capacity of a sand layer on clay by finite element limit analysis. Can Geotech J 2003;40(5):900–15.].