Ancient solar wind in lunar microbreccias

The Apollo 11 soil breccias are samplers of the ancient lunar environment due to their history in the regolith and their efficient closure to addition of recent solar wind upon compaction. These breccias contain the lowest¹⁵N/¹⁴N isotopic ratio yet reported for any lunar sample (in fact, for any natural sample). This extends the range of variation of¹⁵N/¹⁴N of the solar wind to greater than 30%, from a δ¹⁵N of ?190‰ in the past to +120‰ at present. No mechanism is yet known that is capable of accounting for such a large change in the¹⁵N/¹⁴N ratio without producing a substantial concomitant change in the¹³C/¹²C ratio, although some sort of nuclear reaction in the sun appears to be required. Apollo 11 soil breccias and 15086 are all formed by meteoritic impacts which compact the lower regolith against the basement rock without much heating. Rock 15086 formed from the layer of regolith between 100 and 200 cm depth, as shown by the close agreement between the nitrogen content and isotopic ratios of 15086 and those of the Apollo 15 deep drill core. Cosmic ray exposure ages, based on spallation-produced¹⁵N, are 2.3 ± 0.4 b.y. for Apollo 11 breccias. This age is much greater than the estimate from cosmogenic²¹Ne, presumably due to diffusive loss of neon.     

月表有效太阳辐照度实时模型

月表太阳辐射是深入研究月表温度分布的关键问题之一. 本文根据月表有效太阳辐照度与太阳常数、太阳辐射入射角以及日月距离之间的关系,建立月表有效太阳辐照度的实时模型. 该模型在1950～2050年的100年内的理论误差百分比小于0.28％, 相对前人提出的模型在精度上有了很大程度的提高,能较为真实地反映月表有效太阳辐照度随时间的变化规律. 计算结果表明2007年月表太阳辐照度的年变化范围在1321.5～1416.6 W·m-2之间,平均为1368.0 W·m-2. 通过对月表太阳辐射入射角计算结果的分析,证实了月球的两极可能存在极昼极夜.     

A stochastic model for initial movement of sand grains by wind

A stochastic model for entrainment of sand grains by wind is presented through analysis of the forces exerted on a single spherical grain, coupled with fluctuations of wind velocity and the change in grain position on the surface. The structure of the stochastic model is consistent with experimental data in the literature. The probability of initial motion increases first, and then decreases, with grain size. It reaches a maximum at diameters of about 0·9 mm. Some sand grains are still in motion at less than the conventional threshold velocity, even at very low velocities. The probability of sand grain movement reaches unity at twice the conventional threshold velocity. Considerable discrepancies amongst conventional threshold formulae may result from the different probabilities of initial movement implied in these formulae. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multiparticle statistical model of the solar wind

A multiparticle statistical approach to plasma (gas) modeling is presented, in which the fact that the macroscopic parameters are measured with finite resolution scales is taken into account [Minkova, 2004; 2005; 2007]. This approach is based on the Liouville theorem formulated for a stationary open system in the approximation of detailed dynamic balance with its surroundings. When the finite resolution scales of measuring instruments are taken into account, the plasma (gas) is described by multiparticle distribution functions. The latter are used to derive the probability distribution functions of fluctuations and the average values of macroscopic parameters. The multiparticle statistical approach allows a stationary solar wind model to be constructed under a number of simplifying assumptions. Its results for the average values of macroscopic parameters coincide with those of the two-particle kinetic model [Vasenin et al., 2003] and agree with inecliptic observational data.     

A Monte Carlo study of rainfall forecasting with a stochastic model

A procedure for short-term rainfall forecasting in real-time is developed and a study of the role of sampling on forecast ability is conducted. Ground level rainfall fields are forecasted using a stochastic space-time rainfall model in state-space form. Updating of the rainfall field in real-time is accomplished using a distributed parameter Kalman filter to optimally combine measurement information and forecast model estimates. The influence of sampling density on forecast accuracy is evaluated using a series of a simulated rainfall events generated with the same stochastic rainfall model. Sampling was conducted at five different network spatial densities. The results quantify the influence of sampling network density on real-time rainfall field forecasting. Statistical analyses of the rainfall field residuals illustrate improvement in one hour lead time forecasts at higher measurement densities.     

Diffusion of rare gases of solar wind origin from lunar fines as bubbles

A diffusion mechanism is proposed which takes into account phenomena observed in ion-implanted solids, in particular the precipitation of rare gas in the form of bubbles and their migration. The composition of rare gases in the bubbles is inferred from the calculated distribution of solar wind rare gas ions as a function of depth in the grains. These calculations are made for the location and average composition of Apollo 11 samples. It is shown by analogy with experimental observations in ion-implanted solids that the bubbles would migrate towards the surface and that the diffusion constant for this migration would be strongly depth dependent. Relative abundances of rare gas nuclides remaining behind due to the resultant degassing are estimated for one Apollo 11 soil sample and are compared with observed relative abundances for this sample. A qualitative explanation of some of the experimental observations of Ducati et al. on individual lunar grains is also offered.     

Magnetic cloud in the solar wind: A comparison with the classical model

The solar wind magnetic field distribution near the Earth has been studied and compared with the distribution anticipated according to the classical model. It has been indicated that a two-hump distribution of the IMF values discovered previously is not an artifact of averaging but reflects the actual structure of the magnetic field within the sector. In this case the magnetic field of polarity corresponding to the leading spot in the Northern Hemisphere is encountered more frequently. Not only the magnetic field magnitude but also the fields of either polarity increase with increasing activity. The distance between the peaks on the histogram of the magnetic field near the Earth increases from 6 to 10 nT. The quasi-22-year, 11-year, and quasibiennial (2.6 ± 0.3 years) cycles are observed in an alternate increase in the peaks, in the strength of the fields of either polarity, and in the ratio of the peaks to the occurrence frequency of zero values, respectively. The classical model is violated in approximately 25% of cases.     

Comments on the surface composition of lunar soil grains

Baron et al. [1] have recently published X-ray photoemission spectroscopy analyses of the surface composition of lunar regolith fines sample 10084 showing almost a factor of two higher Fe than we found. They suggest that this discrepancy is due either to the choice of element lines analyzed or to the data reduction procedure used. We document the fact that neither of these possible explanations is correct and provide further arguments in support of our value.     

A simple statistical estimation procedure for Monte Carlo Inversion in geophysics

Summary This paper examines the use of Monte Carlo Inversion (MCI) as an effective means for inverting ((geo)physical) data. Press, following Keilis-Borok and Yanovskaya, has used it successfully as an independent method for density modelling. However, to-date, no statistical basis for the interpretation of the results determined by it in geophysical applications has been developed. Since its future success and credibility will rest heavily on the development of such a basis, we give a simple statistical estimation procedure which defines in a natural way the procedure which must be used when applying, and interpreting the results obtained from, MCI. In addition, it is shown that MCI complements, rather than competes with, the work of Backus and Gilbert.     

Argon-lead isotopic correlation in samples from lunar maria: Records from the ancient lunar regolith

²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb of “low temperature sited” (LTS) lead as reported by Silver (1975) increases with⁴⁰Ar/³⁶Ar of trapped argon in thirteen samples from lunar maria. This strongly supports an earlier conclusion by (1972) that large (⁴⁰Ar/³⁶Ar)_T ratios represent ancient regolith records, and provides a rough (⁴⁰Ar/³⁶Ar)_T timescale.The erasure of (⁴⁰Ar/³⁶Ar)_T records in surface soils by the excavation of deep-seated, “fresh” bedrock and by erosion of particle surfaces via ion sputtering must have been counteracted by conserving processes in the regolith. Two such processes are relatively well understood: agglutinate formation and the excavation and comminution of soil breccias which have preserved an ancient (⁴⁰Ar/³⁶Ar)_T record. The frequency distribution of (⁴⁰Ar/³⁶Ar)_T in 82 “soils” from all Apollo missions suggests a third process, which requires that sizeable “pockets” of ancient regolith materials including soils have survived deep turnover for billions of years.Large-scale mobility of LTS lead throughout all of the regolith does not appear to occur.Inert gas ions with sufficient energy for trapping may have reached the lunar surface more than 3 b.y. ago.The Apollo 11 microbreccias appear to have been formed more than 3 b.y. ago from regoliththen extant on the surface.     

Micromechanics model of ice fields—II: Monte Carlo simulation

The graph model presented in Part I of this series provides the basis for development of a computer simulation of tightly packed ice fields taken as ensembles of square-shaped ice floes with random physical properties. A program based on an alternating-direction scheme is developed to model the time evolution of a field of ice floes in a rectangular domain. The simulation of a field in an Arctic channel shows that there is a strong tendency for an earlier onset of microscale plastic flows and formation of irregular clusters of ice floes and openings in a field with spatially random properties versus a field with deterministic spatially homogeneous properties. A special study is conducted of an elastic-plastic transition in a field of 101×101 floes. The transition to macroscopically plastic flow is possible only with a percolation of inelastic regions through the entire domain of the ice field. The fact that this percolation is characterized by a noninteger fractal dimension uncovers a (possibly principal) generation mechanism of ice field morphologies, and points to scale dependence in mechanics of ice fields for certain ranges of loads.     

Development of probability distributions for urban hydrologic model parameters and a Monte Carlo analysis of model sensitivity

This paper proposes an approach to estimating the uncertainty related to EPA Storm Water Management Model model parameters, percentage routed (P_R) and saturated hydraulic conductivity (K_sat), which are used to calculate stormwater runoff volumes. The methodology proposed in this paper addresses uncertainty through the development of probability distributions for urban hydrologic parameters through extensive calibration to observed flow data in the Philadelphia collection system. The established probability distributions are then applied to the Philadelphia Southeast district model through a Monte Carlo approach to estimate the uncertainty in prediction of combined sewer overflow volumes as related to hydrologic model parameter estimation. Understanding urban hydrology is critical to defining urban water resource problems. A variety of land use types within Philadelphia coupled with a history of cut and fill have resulted in a patchwork of urban fill and native soils. The complexity of urban hydrology can make model parameter estimation and defining model uncertainty a difficult task. The development of probability distributions for hydrologic parameters applied through Monte Carlo simulations provided a significant improvement in estimating model uncertainty over traditional model sensitivity analysis. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

利用重力地形导纳估计月壳厚度

在频域使用多窗口(Multitaper)方法来计算月球正面四个形成于不同历史时期月海区(Smythii, Crisium, Imbrium, Orientale)的重力地形导纳,然后将其与月球弹性岩石圈的理论导纳模型相比较,由最小二乘法得出四个月海区的月球岩石圈的平均弹性厚度约为8 km,月壳的厚度分别为：Smythii 盆地,72 km; Crisium 盆地 70 km;Orientale 盆地 60 km;Imbrium 盆地57 km.随着月球的演化,月壳厚度呈现变厚的趋势.     

On the possibility of using lunar fines to determine the intensity of the ancient lunar magnetic field

The remanent magnetization of iron grains in lunar fines can be studied by allowing a sample of fines to acquire a depositional remanent magnetization (NRM) in the Thellier determination of an ancient lunar field intensity. Although a natural remanent magnetization (NRM) in the Thellier determination of an ancient lunar field intensity. Although a palaeointensity of ca. 1.0 Oe was determined by this method, several factors complicate the interpretation of the result. These include the origin and nature of the iron metal in lunar fines, and the time and acquisition process of its magnetization.     

PNN测井方法的蒙特卡罗模拟结果研究

PNN（脉冲中子-中子）测井是利用He-3管记录热中子时间谱,通过获取地层宏观吸收截面来确定含水饱和度的方法.本文利用蒙特卡罗方法（MCNP-4C）模拟了不同地层水矿化度、孔隙度、饱和度和井眼等条件下的热中子时间谱,研究了地层宏观吸收截面与地层水矿化度的关系,从理论上确定PNN测井适合的地层水矿化度范围约为10～100 g/L,在地层水矿化度为50 g/L时适于测井的孔隙度下限约为10%.井眼流体不同,地层的热中子计数率不同,但对地层宏观吸收截面影响较小.利用远近探测器热中子计数比值可以确定孔隙度,并提出了根据不同岩性和饱和度的地层宏观吸收截面与孔隙度的交会图来评价骨架、含水饱和度以及确定油层、水层和气层的方法.PNN测井方法在低地层水矿化度、低孔隙度地层比其他方法具有优势.     

A brief history of the solar oblateness. A review

We hereby present a review on solar oblateness measurements. By emphasizing historical data, we illustrate how the discordance between experimental results can lead to substantial improvements in the building of new technical apparatus as well as to the emergence of new ideas to develop new theories. We stress out the need to get accurate data from space to enhance our knowledge of the solar core in order to develop more precise ephemerids and ultimately build possible new gravitational theories.     

Research on progressive failure process of Baishuihe landslide based on Monte Carlo model

To the progressive landslide, development of the internal deformation and failure situation can’t be accurately reflected by the overall stability of coefficients and failure probability. But this problem can be solved by utilizing the principle of progressive failure by slices. Taking the warning area of Baishuihe landslide as an example, 5 days accumulated rainfall in different reappearing period is computed by Gumbel model. The failure probability of each slice is calculated by progressive failure principle, which is based on Monte Carlo model. The following results can be revealed through calculation: Overall stability and failure probability can’t reflect real situation of Baishuihe landslide warning area. Through building the calculation of progressive failure model of each slice, the stability of each part in the Baishuihe landslide warning area is quite different. Unstable region mainly lies in vicinity of the middle and posterior warning area. The front of the warning area remains stable. Deformation characteristics of the warning area are consistent with the investigation report. The scope of unstable area increased gradually with rainfall and the decline of reservoir water. Under 5 day’s accumulated rainfall of 50 years, the poor stable and unstable region reached 75 %, there is a large possibility of local deformation slip. Under the joint action of rainfall and reservoir water level, the warning area of Baishuihe landslide shows a progressive failure mode from top to bottom.     

EISCAT measurements of the solar wind

EISCAT observations of interplanetary scintillation have been used to measure the velocity of the solar wind at distances between 15 and 130R (solar radii) from the Sun. The results show that the solar wind consists of two distinct components, a fast stream with a velocity of 800 km s^–1 and a slow stream at 400 kms^–1. The fast stream appears to reach its final velocity much closer to the Sun than expected. The results presented here suggest that this is also true for the slow solar wind. Away from interaction regions the flow vector of the solar wind is purely radial to the Sun. Observations have been made of fast wind/slow wind interactions which show enhanced levels of scintillation in compression regions.     

一种基于蒙特卡罗模拟的发震概率计算方法

针对大震发生概率计算过程中的不确定性, 本文分别对不确定性及其处理方法进行了探讨． 考虑到不确定构成的复杂性, 提出了一种基于蒙特卡罗模拟的大震发生概率计算方法, 并以东昆仑断裂带塔藏段为计算实例, 利用蒙特卡罗法处理发震概率计算过程中的各种不确定性. 结果表明, 古地震数据的不完整性对计算结果的影响很大. 本文采用逻辑树法考虑古地震数据的不完整性, 得到塔藏段未来100年的大震发生概率为0.12．