云南地震动反应谱特性Vmax／αmax值的研究

本通过对发生在云南省的澜沧－耿马等几次地震记录的分析，提出了适合云南实际的地震动反应谱特性Ｖｍａｘ／αｍａｘ值的ｗｅｉｂｕｌｌ模型，并求出了平均值和标准差，对于样本不足的给出了ｍ，η的置信区间，可为我国、特别是云南省的工程建设提供基础依据。     

用专家估价方法预报M_(max)

本文描述了用自动系统编制地震最大震级Mmax预报图的方法。原始资料包括:地震震中图、潜在地震活动的地质地球物理特征图和一些地点(选择点)的Mmax专家评价。用以预报Mmax的地质地球特征函数是通过对选择点上的Mmax专家评价最优逼近得到的。Mmax图的编制需经过若干次迭代。电子计算机用来筛选含有最大信息量的特征,计算预报函数,自动分析评价处理结果并提出便于专业人员利用的图解、表格和地图等形式的结果。专门人员负责控制计算过程,备好原始资料,对结果进行分析和说明,判断是否有必要修正预报图以及将变更部分存入原始资料以期预报图下轮迭代后更趋准确。简略描述了计算程序软件包。列举了克里米亚—高加索—西土库曼地区Mmax预报图的编制实例。     

云南省农村乡镇地震灾害房屋损失评估

根据1990——2000年20余次云南省地震的房屋损坏调查数据,建立了目前云南省农村居民最主要的4类房屋地震脆弱性模型（烈度-损失率曲线）;进而利用设定地震灾害损失模拟方法, 基于2002年云南省房屋状况, 模拟了历史上的破坏性地震如果再次发生, 将造成的云南省房屋的经济损失. 误差分析表明, 该模拟计算方法实用性强, 对一般性地震的模拟误差在30%左右. 将云南省886——2002年的398次地震依次进行了房屋经济损失模拟. 结果表明, 云南省年均因地震引起的经济损失约为4.1亿元, 占当年云南省GDP值2 232.32亿元的0.18%. 由于房屋造价的上涨和农村居民人均住房面积的增加,历史上的强震一旦今天再次发生, 对云南省经济的影响将远远大于当年.      

云南省富宁县发生5.9(M_s)级地震

据云南省地震台网测定,1982年10月27日23时36分32秒(北京时间)在云南省富宁县的洞坡公社、者桑公社一带发生一次 M_s=5.9级地震,其微观震中为东经105°50＇,北纬23°45’。这次地震震中区有一定程度的破坏,37幢楼房墙体开裂、掉瓦,多数民房烟囱倒塌,38间民房的隔墙倒塌。死亡2人,伤8人。据当地群众反映,震前1—2天有地光出现。     

~(14)C测定地质年代数据(四)

本报告发表~(14)C测定地质年代数据84个,其中云南省的69个,四川省的11个,甘肃省的4个。该批数据是1982年至1984年测定的。在制样及测量方面作了一些改进。 1979年开始采用自行设计的直立复式筒状还原-水解反应器。烘干的碳酸锶与镁粉按10:6均匀混合。该反应器(图1)比横卧套管式还原反应器安全、可靠、产率高、操作简便,有可能实现自动控制。1982年起     

云南省县级地震工作机构发展现状与前景展望

县级地震工作机构是防震减灾事业发展的基础,工作任务繁重,责任重大。通过对云南省县级地震工作机构现状的调查与分析,归纳了云南省县级防震减灾工作发展过程及其作用,探讨了进一步推进工作的思路与措施,并对云南省县级防震减灾工作的发展前景进行了展望。     

云南省县级地震工作机构发展现状与前景展望

县级地震工作机构是防震减灾事业发展的基础，工作任务繁重，责任重大。通过对云南省县级地震工作机构现状的调查，归纳了云南省县级防震减灾工作发展过程及其作用，探讨了进一步推进工作的思路与措施，并对云南省县级防震减灾工作的发展前景进行了分析。     

云南省地震生命损失的区域特征研究

通过分析云南省的历史地震灾害造成的生命损失数据,表明20世纪以来云南省的地震生命损失具有显著的区域性差异。以红河断裂为界,红河断裂带上及其以东的滇西北、滇中和滇东北地区,其地震生命损失的严重程度明显高于红河断裂以西的滇西和滇西南地区。同时,从云南省的人口密度、民居建筑区域特点和地质地貌条件等方面,分析了云南省地震生命损失区域性差异可能的自然环境和社会影响因素。     

云南省前兆模拟观测数据库系统的设计及实现

介绍了云南省前兆模拟观测数据库系统。该系统由前兆模拟观测数据库和数据库管理软件两部分组成。针对云南省前兆模拟观测手段多、时段长、覆盖面广等特点,选用Microsoft SQ LServer 2000为数据库平台设计建立了云南省前兆模拟观测数据库;针对前兆观测方法及台站观测手段分类管理的特点,选用Delphi为开发工具编制了前兆数据库管理软件。该系统的实现解决了分析预报和研究人员对长期积累的前兆观测数据的科研需要。     

宁蒗发生5.5(M_s)级地震

1988年1月10日15点43分12.4秒,在云南省宁蒗县烂泥箐乡炭山坪一带发生了一次5.5级地震。据丽江、永胜、宁蒗台网测定,微观震中在北纬27°13’,东经101°24’,震源深度的10公里。宏观震中在北纬27°14’,东经100°54.5’,即宁蒗县城东南约8.5公里     

Versuch zur Bestimmung von μmax undK s mit dem Sapromat-Verfahren

Ohne Zusammenfassung Die Arbeit wurde im Rahmen eines WHO-Stipendiuma an der Eidg. Anstalt für Wasserversorgung, Abwasserreinigung und Gew?sserschutz (EAWAG), Dübendorf, durchgeführt.     

PANDOROS高压发生器Jmax灯亮故障检修

本文分析了引发Ｊｍａｘ灯亮的三种原因。即Ｘ线管电流检测回路Ｒ３３电位计故障；ＫＶ参数值产生回路Ｖ２４管击穿故障，以及灯丝初级加热回路Ｖ２管软击穿故障，所以导致的高压发生器低电流保护，Ｊｍａｘ灯亮，不同的是前二项原因使曝光开始即刻Ｊｍａｘ灯亮。     

f max and fault zone property of Lushan earthquake of 20 April 2013, Sichuan,China

In this study, we determined f _max from near-field accelerograms of the Lushan earthquake of April 20, 2013 through spectra analysis. The result shows that the values of f _max derived from five different seismography stations are very close though these stations roughly span about 100 km along the strike. This implies that the cause of f _max is mainly the seismic source process rather than the site effect. Moreover, according to the source–cause model of Papageorgiou and Aki (Bull Seism Soc Am 73:693–722, 1983), we infer that the cohesive zone width of the rupture of the Lushan earthquake is about 204 with an uncertainty of 13 m. We also find that there is a significant bulge between 30 and 45 Hz in the amplitude spectra of accelerograms of stations 51YAL and 51QLY, and we confirm that it is due to seismic waves’ reverberation of the sedimentary soil layer beneath these stations.     

New Approach to the Characterization of M max and of the Tail of the Distribution of Earthquake Magnitudes

We develop a new method for the statistical estimation of the tail of the distribution of earthquake sizes recorded in the Harvard catalog of seismic moments converted to m _W -magnitudes (1977–2004 and 1977–2006). For this, we suggest a new parametric model for the distribution of main-shock magnitudes, which is composed of two branches, the pure Gutenberg-Richter distribution up to an upper magnitude threshold m ₁, followed by another branch with a maximum upper magnitude bound M _max, which we refer to as the two-branch model. We find that the number of main events in the catalog (N = 3975 for 1977–2004 and N = 4193 for 1977–2006) is insufficient for a direct estimation of the parameters of this model, due to the inherent instability of the estimation problem. This problem is likely to be the same for any other two-branch model. This inherent limitation can be explained by the fact that only a small fraction of the empirical data populates the second branch. We then show that using the set of maximum magnitudes (the set of T-maxima) in windows of duration T days provides a significant improvement, in particular (i) by minimizing the negative impact of time-clustering of foreshock/main shock/aftershock sequences in the estimation of the tail of magnitude distribution, and (ii) by providing via a simulation method reliable estimates of the biases in the Moment estimation procedure (which turns out to be more efficient than the Maximum Likelihood estimation). We propose a method for the determination of the optimal choice of the T value minimizing the mean-squares-error of the estimation of the form parameter of the GEV distribution approximating the sample distribution of T-maxima, which yields T _optimal = 500 days. We have estimated the following quantiles of the distribution of T-maxima for the whole period 1977–2006: Q _16%(M _max) = 9.3, Q _50%(M _max) = 9.7 and Q _84%(M _max) = 10.3. Finally, we suggest two more stable statistical characteristics of the tail of the distribution of earthquake magnitudes: The quantile Q _T (q) of a high probability level q for the T-maxima, and the probability of exceedance of a high threshold magnitude ρ _T (m*)  = P{m _k  ≥ m*}. We obtained the following sample estimates for the global Harvard catalog and The comparison between our estimates for the two periods 1977–2004 and 1977–2006, where the latter period included the great Sumatra earthquake 24.12.2004, m _W  = 9.0 confirms the instability of the estimation of the parameter M _max and the stability of Q _T (q) and ρ _T (m*) = P{m _k  ≥ m*}.     

Comparison of Bayesian estimates of peak ground acceleration (<Emphasis Type="Italic">A</Emphasis>max) with PSHA in Iran

Bayesian probability theory is an appropriate and useful method for estimating parameters in seismic hazard analysis. The analysis in Bayesian approaches is based on a posterior belief, also their special ability is to take into account the uncertainty of parameters in probabilistic relations and a priori knowledge. In this study, we benefited the Bayesian approach in order to estimate maximum values of peak ground acceleration (A_max) also quantiles of the relevant probabilistic distributions are figured out in a desired future interval time in Iran. The main assumptions are Poissonian character of the seismic events flow and properties of the Gutenberg-Richter distribution law. The map of maximum possible values of A_max and also map of 90% quantile of distribution of maximum values of A_max on a future interval time 100 years is presented. According to the results, the maximum value of the A_max is estimated for Bandar Abbas as 0.3g and the minimum one is attributed to Esfahan as 0.03g. Finally, the estimated values in Bayesian approach are compared with what was presented applying probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH) methods based on the conventional Cornel (1968) method. The distribution function of A_max for future time intervals of 100 and 475 years are calculated for confidence limit of probability level of 90%.     

A Monte Carlo study of rainfall forecasting with a stochastic model

A procedure for short-term rainfall forecasting in real-time is developed and a study of the role of sampling on forecast ability is conducted. Ground level rainfall fields are forecasted using a stochastic space-time rainfall model in state-space form. Updating of the rainfall field in real-time is accomplished using a distributed parameter Kalman filter to optimally combine measurement information and forecast model estimates. The influence of sampling density on forecast accuracy is evaluated using a series of a simulated rainfall events generated with the same stochastic rainfall model. Sampling was conducted at five different network spatial densities. The results quantify the influence of sampling network density on real-time rainfall field forecasting. Statistical analyses of the rainfall field residuals illustrate improvement in one hour lead time forecasts at higher measurement densities.     

Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration Aims And Scope

正This journal is established by the Institute of Engineering Mechanics(IEM),China Earthquake Administration,to promote scientific exchange between Chinese and foreign scientists and engineers so as to improve the theory and practice of earthquake hazards mitigation,preparedness,and recovery.To accomplish this purpose,the journal aims to attract a balanced number of papers between Chinese and     

Foreword

Destructive earthquakes have caused great damage in China and the United States and collapsing buildings havecaused many deaths and injuries. The field of earthquake engineering studies earthquake hazards, the occurrence ofearthquakes of various magnitudes, the nature of the ground shaking during an earthquake, the vibration of structuresduring earthquakes, the strengthening of existing structures and the design of new structures to be earthquake resistant,and finally, how to cope with earthquake damage and restore a city to normal functioning. Such efforts are in progressin both countries, but unfortunately, the language barrier interferes with the free flow of information between China andthe Untied States. It would be mutually beneficial if some means could be developed to promote the exchangeof information across the Pacific Ocean. This new journal has been established for this purpose and its success willbe an important step in promoting earthquake engineering in China and the United States.