The role of solar activity in observed climate changes in the 20th century

The possible contribution of solar and geomagnetic activity to changes in the characteristics of the main components of the climatic system—the ocean and the atmosphere—is considered and discussed. The mechanisms and models of the solar activity impact on thermobaric and climatic characteristics of the troposphere are presented. Based on a complex analysis of hydrometeorological data, it has been shown that changes in the temperature of the troposphere and the World Ocean reflect a response both to individual helio-geophysical perturbations and to long-term changes (1854–2015) of solar and geomagnetic activity. It is established that the climatic response to the influence of solar and geomagnetic activity is characterized by considerable spatio-temporal heterogeneity, is of a regional nature, and depends on the general circulation of the atmosphere. The largest contribution of solar activity to the global climate changes was observed in the period 1910–1943.     

The role of atmospheric nuclear explosions on the stagnation of global warming in the mid 20th century

This study suggests that the cause of the stagnation in global warming in the mid 20th century was the atmospheric nuclear explosions detonated between 1945 and 1980. The estimated GST drop due to fine dust from the actual atmospheric nuclear explosions based on the published simulation results by other researchers (a single column model and Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model) has served to explain the stagnation in global warming. Atmospheric nuclear explosions can be regarded as full-scale in situ tests for nuclear winter. The non-negligible amount of GST drop from the actual atmospheric explosions suggests that nuclear winter is not just a theory but has actually occurred, albeit on a small scale. The accuracy of the simulations of GST by IPCC would also be improved significantly by introducing the influence of fine dust from the actual atmospheric nuclear explosions into their climate models; thus, global warming behavior could be more accurately predicted.     

The geomagnetic field in the 20th century

The continuous spatial-temporal model of variations in the main geomagnetic field in the 20th century has been elaborated. All available data—from the navigation to the satellite surveys at the beginning and end of the century, respectively—have been used to construct the model. Since the accuracy of measurements was different during the century and the data are nonuniformly distributed over the Earth’s surface, the methods for regulating solutions based on global parameters of the magnetic field and its secular variation, invariant on the simulation interval, have been used to correct the model. The secular variation model has been represented as the sum of the models obtained by means of expansion in terms of natural orthogonal components. The conclusions that the character of field variations is complex have been made and the spatial and temporal characteristics of the secular variations of different origin have been estimated based on the simulation results.     

二十世纪的地球偶极子磁场

1900~2000年的IGRF(国际地磁参考场)资料使研究20世纪中地磁场的变化规律成为可能,在20世纪中,即使从19世纪起,地球偶极子磁场发生了较大的变化,偶极矩一直保持衰减的势头,地心轴的所有3个分量都是减小的.地磁南极的位置变化在1930年左右发生大的转折,1960年起向西和向南快速移动,偶极子轴在纬度方面变化只有1°左右,经度变化在3°左右,离磁极倒转的条件差得远.     

Sea surges in Camargue: Trends over the 20th century

The vulnerability to short-term and long-term sea-level rises is particularly high in subsiding deltaic areas, especially in microtidal seas, when surges (the differences between the observed sea heights and the simultaneous astronomical tide) are frequent. At the Grau-de-la-Dent tide-gauge in the Camargue (Rhone delta, France), daily sea-level records are available since 1905. Hourly tide data spanning the period 1979–1995 were obtained through the digitisation of the original paper records: the local harmonic constants and the surges for the whole 20th century have been computed from these hourly observations. It appears that the annual maximum observed sea-level height increases by 4 mm/yr at a rate that is two times faster than the average observed relative sea level. The increasing trend of the annual maximum positive sea surges (+1.9 mm/yr), which is equal to the average relative sea-level rise, is thus responsible for this difference. The most important meteorological factor associated with local sea-surge occurrences is wind blowing from 100° to 120° sectors, which tends to push the water toward the coasts. Since 1961, the frequency and the speed of wind from this sector increased, although with some variability, thus contributing in part to the increase in the frequency and intensity of the surges. Due to the changing hydrodynamics phenomenon in the Camargue, a positive feedback mechanism between extreme marine events and shoreline regression is another factor to explain the sea-surge rise over the long term. The increase in sea-surge frequency and height during the last century is especially of concern in the deltaic area if the near-future global sea-level rise predicted by climate models is also taken into account.     

20世纪地磁长期变化场分析

利用IAGA（国际地磁与高空物理学协会）编制的IGRF(国际地磁参考场)研究了20世纪地磁场变化规律. 20世纪地磁长期变化场的四极子（n=2的高斯系数所表示）变化最为显著,与主磁场相比长期变化场的球谐级数收敛较慢,利用追踪异常焦点位置随时间的变化的方法,发现地磁非偶极子长期变化场的垂直分量Z的等值图上有五大异常,其漂移情况不太统一,但是基本上是西向漂移.这种西向漂移的不一致性,在某种程度上证明了地磁场模型的正确性. 20世纪地磁场长期变化的能量谱与主磁场的不同,偶极子、 四极子和八极子的变化较明显.     

Analysis of geomorphology citations in the last quarter of the 20th century

Three hundred and twenty‐eight geomorphology articles published in the last quarter of the 20th century were cited 20 or more times in Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) indices, as of 15 May 2001. At the close of the 20th century, well‐cited geomorphology is highly multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary with the most dominant fields being in biological, civil engineering, earth science, geography, geological, and soils disciplines. The very strong English‐language bias of well‐cited journal articles creates a geographical bias in study site selection, which may in turn bias geomorphic theory. Water‐based research (fluvial processes and landforms, riparian, drainage basin) dominates well‐cited papers, with the ‘hottest’ subfield in the 1990s being riparian research with a biological emphasis. Over 90 journals publish well‐cited papers, but Earth Surface Processes and Landforms hosts the largest number of well‐cited papers. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

20世纪中国地区主磁场变化研究

为了研究2 0世纪中国地区主磁场变化, 首先使用最新的全球模型IGRF11, CALS3K. 4 (3K. 4) 和GUFM1进行计算, 并分析了1900—1990年的主磁场年变率均值的变化; 然后基于1960—2000年以10年为间隔的实测数据, 结合全球模型CM4与区域模型泰勒(Taylor)多项式(TY)模型分析了中国地区主磁场的年变率分布及年变率均值, 并与上述几种全球模型进行了比较． 结果显示： 20世纪利用IGRF11, GALS3K.4和GUFM1模型得到的主磁场的年变率均值均很接近. 它们所绘制的1960—2000年中国地区的主磁场年变率分布类似． 其原因主要是由于它们的建模原理相同且截断阶数接近所致． 基于实测点绘制的年变率分布与全球模型基本一致, X分量的年变率逐年减少, Y、 Z、 F分量的年变率均呈现先减小后增大的趋势．但两者也存在一定差异, 主要原因是由于更高密度的实测点及使用区域模型所致． 结果还显示了基于实测值绘制的年变率均值变化与CM4较为接近. 作者认为 CM4模型可以较好地反映中国地区主磁场的变化．     

中国大陆地区20世纪以来"第五活跃期"的判断

在分析了应用小波分析方法判断地震活动趋势可信度的基础上,对中国大陆地区"第五活跃期"是否结束问题进行了分析.研究表明,中国大陆地区"第五活跃期"结束的标志性地震是2001年11月14日昆仑山口西8.1级地震,也就是说,现在处于"第五活跃期"后的平静期.     

The Ebro River in the 20th century or the ecomorphological transformation of a large and dynamic Mediterranean channel

In the first decades of the 20th century, the Ebro River was the Iberian channel with the most active fluvial dynamics and the most remarkable spatial‐temporal evolution. Its meandering typology, the dimensions of its floodplain, and the singularities of its flow regime produced an especially interesting set of river functions. The largest dynamics of the Ebro River are concentrated along the meandering profile of the central sector. During the 20th century, this sector experienced a large alteration of its geomorphological structure. We present here an analysis of this evolution through the cartographic study of a long segment of the river (~250 km) in 1927, 1956 and 2003. The results show a large reduction in bank sinuosity, a progressive loss of fluvial territory, and a large decrease in channel width. These changes are especially clear in the areas previously most ecologically connected with the active channel. The fluvial territory of the river in 2003 was approximately half that found during the first decades of the 20th century. Forest plantations, which were non‐existent in 1927, occupied more than 1500 ha of the study area in the last decade. This intense geomorphological transformation becomes ecologically visible in (i) a 35% reduction of the area occupied by riparian vegetation; (ii) a loss of the heterogeneity of riparian forest spots, which were formerly structured in an irregular mosaic far from the river thalweg; and (iii) a modification of the riparian forest structure, which is currently linear, uniform, thin and very close to the river axis. The ecomorphological alteration was intensified by the remarkable reduction in bank length (13%) and the reduced dynamism of the present river system, indicated by an increase in the percentage of fluvial territory occupied by riparian forests and a reduction in the area occupied by the active channel. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reconstructing changes in Atlantic thermohaline circulation during the 20th century under two possible scenarios

Atlantic thermohaline circulation(THC) is a key component of the Earth Climate System and identification of its changes during the 20th Century is critical to the understanding of its variation characteristics and the corresponding climatic impacts.Previous researches have been inconclusive,with the results varying depending on the approach used to measure THC.The results for the two established approaches for measurement of the phenomenon(direct observation and indirect reconstruction) are contradictive(weakening and non-weakening),and their credibility needs improving.Based on the tight relationship between THC anomaly and "see-saw" intensities of Sea Surface Temperature(SST) and Surface Air Temperature(SAT),we first diagnose their quantitative relationship in the model experiments,which is corresponding to its two possible scenarios,and then reconstruct the changes of THC during the 20th Century respectively with multiple observed datasets of SST and SAT.Model results show that THC anomaly and SST/SAT "see-saw" intensities are well correlated in timescales longer than 10/40 years under scenarios of weakening/non-weakening respectively.Two kinds of reconstructions here are consistent with each other,and we propose that THC has undergone a 2-cycle oscillation with inter-decadal scale since the Industrial Revolution with a magnitude of about 1 Sv.The transformation times of decadal trend are around the mid-1910s,the 1940s,and the mid-1970s.This research further validates the main results of previous reconstructions,and points out that THC does not have a long-term weakening during the 20th Century.     

Drifting runoff periodicity during the 20th century due to changing surface water volume

Fourier and wavelet analyses were used to reveal the dominant trends and coherence of a more than one‐century‐long time series of precipitation and discharge in several watersheds in Sweden, two of which were subjected to hydropower and intensive agriculture. During the 20th century, there was a gradual, significant drift of the dominant discharge periodicity in agricultural watersheds. This study shows that the steepness of the Fourier spectrum of runoff from the May to October period each year increased gradually during the century, which suggests a more predictable intra‐annual runoff pattern (more apart from white‐noise). In the agricultural watershed, the coherence spectrum of precipitation and runoff is generally high with a consistent white‐noise relationship for precipitation during the 20th century, indicating that precipitation is not controlling the drift of the discharge spectrum. In the hydropower regulated watershed, there was a sudden decrease of the discharge spectrum slope when regulation commenced in the 1920s. This study develops a new theory in which the runoff spectrum is related to the hydraulic and hydro‐morphological characteristics of the watershed. Using this theory, we explain the changes in runoff spectra in the two watersheds by the anthropogenic change in surface water volume and, hence, changes in kinematic wave celerity and water transit times. The reduced water volume in the agricultural watershed would also contribute to decreasing evaporation, which could explain a slightly increasing mean discharge during the 20th century despite the fact that precipitation was statistically constant in the area. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

15-20世纪大陆泽与宁晋泊演变的影响因素分析

15至20世纪,海河流域南系历史上著名的湖泊--大陆泽和宁晋泊经历了从宽广到干涸的巨大变迁.对于二泊演变的原因,此前学者从未做过专门的分析和研究.本文以明清时期丰富的历史文献为依据,对影响湖泊演变的各大自然和人文因子进行了深入探讨,得出如下基本结论:海河南系水系格局不断变迁导致湖泊水源补给发生迅速改变,是促使湖泊相应发生显著扩张与萎缩,并最终导致湖泊消亡的直接主要动因.此外,来自河流的泥沙淤积,气候的干湿变化,人类拦水筑坝、占垦涸泊等活动加速了湖泊的演变与消涸.     

Theory of high-frequency (HF) radio waves in the second half of the 20th century

Divided into eight groups, those papers detailing the main developments of the field of HF radio waves are sketched in as condensed a fashion as possible. These groups are full wave theory, geometrical optics and conductivity during the 1950s, the same topics during the 1960s, and full wave theory and geometrical optics during the remainder of the 20th century.     

Assessment of the statistical significance of global changes in the annual river runoff in XXI century due to possible anthropogenic warming of climate

A number of uncertainties of forecasts of changes in the annual runoff depths at global scale, obtained using information on results of integration of 21 IPCC climate models is studied. Following possible errors of these forecasts are calculated: errors of models; differences between main (IPCC) scenarios of emission of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and resultant changes of global temperatures; mistakes in estimates of average long-term observed values of the runoff depths for the “control” period. Global maps of a “significance index” of forecasted changes in the runoff depths (estimations of changes in the annual runoff depths divided by mean square root values of errors of these estimations) for 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100 are presented. It is shown that the most significant global changes of the runoff depths (growth in the north of Eastern Siberia, of the Russian Far East, of North America, falling in the “Greater Mediterranean Region”) are predicted for the second quarter of 21st century. Further changes of the runoff amplify only in the Amazon basin (reduction, by 2075). Almost everywhere else (including almost all European territory of Russia, Western Siberia, south of Eastern Siberia and of the Far East) the significance of changes in the runoff depths during 21st century is negligible.     

Coastal cliff retreat rates at Beit‐Yannay,Israel, in the 20th century

Research indicates that the aeolianite (Kurkar) cliffs along the Israeli Mediterranean coastline have continuously retreated eastward during the last few decades. There seems to be no dispute among Earth scientists regarding the general trend of cliff retreat. However the majority of papers displaying cliff retreat rates are based upon comparison of aerial photographs. Their lack of advanced geometric measurement methods causes a high margin of error. Public attention is focused upon the Beit‐Yannay coastal cliff since private homes are located along the southern section of the cliff crest. The current research compares the historic location of the cliff crest edge at Beit‐Yannay as observed in a series of aerial photographs taken during the period 1918–2000. Quantitative measurement methods included applications of satellite geodesy and digital photogrammetry and mapping. Research results offer quantitative, consecutive and highly accurate data regarding retreat rates over a relatively long period of 82 years. It is concluded that: 1. Annual average cliff retreat rates of the cliff crest is 20 cm/year. 2. Categorization of the study time span reveals periods displaying varying retreat rates such as 27 cm/year during 1918–1946, 21 cm/year during 1946–1973 and 10 cm/year during 1973–2000. 3. Maximum retreat distances of the cliff crest, over the study period were found to be approximately 25 m along the northern, lowest section of the cliff. Minimum distances of 11 m were identi?ed at the highest, southern section of the cliff. 4. The eolianite (Kurkar) cliffs along the Israeli Mediterranean coast throughout the 20th century have been an important source of sediment, contributing approximately 24 × 10⁶ m³ of sediments to the sediment balance of Israeli beaches. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Forms and drivers of annual streamflow variability in the headwaters of Canadian Prairies during the 20th century

Headwater streamflows in the Rocky Mountain foothills are the key to water availability in the Canadian Prairies. Headwater characteristics, however, have been and continue to be subject to major variability and change. Here, we identify various forms of change in the annual mean streamflow and timing of the annual peak and attempt to distinguish between the effects of multiple drivers using a generalized regression scheme. Our investigation shows that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is the main driver of significant monotonic trends and shifts in the central tendency of annual mean streamflow in major headwaters. In parallel, the cumulative effects of non‐PDO climatic drivers and human‐induced land use and land management are the main causes of significant variations in the timing of the annual peak. Additional analyses show that time sequences with significant trends in annual mean streamflow and timing of the annual peak coincide with those that show significant trends in the PDO or non‐PDO component of the air temperature, respectively. The natural streamflow characteristics are substantially perturbed by anthropogenic river flow regulation, depending on the form of change and/or the level of regulation. Evidence suggests that the general tendency of human regulation is to alleviate the severity of above‐ and below‐average streamflow conditions; however, it may also intensify the variability in natural streamflow characteristics during drier years and/or those with earlier annual peak timing. These are circumstances to which the regional water resource system is vulnerable. Our findings are important for the provision of effective regional water resource management in the Canadian Prairies and contribute to a better understanding of the complex interactions between natural and anthropogenic drivers in coupled human–water systems.     

Source parameters of four strong earthquakes in Bulgaria and Portugal at the beginning of the 20th century

Using original seismograph records and bulletin data we re-determined theorigin time, location, seismic moment (M₀) and magnitudes(M_S and M_w) for four earthquakes in the beginning of the20th century. These are two strong earthquakes April 4, 1904 nearKrupnik, Bulgaria (M_w = 6.8, M_S = 7.2 respectively), the April 231909 earthquake near Benavente, Portugal (M_S = 6.3), and the June14, 1913 earthquake near Gorna Orjahovitza, Bulgaria (M_S = 6.3).Twenty-nine traces from original records have been analysed, a largenumber of original station bulletins have been consulted and a consistentmethodology for analysing these early 20th century instrumentalinformation is presented.In spite of a thorough effort in re-assembling and quality control of theoriginal data, large inaccuracies remain in the improved instrumentalepicentre locations and origin times. The seismic moment estimates weobtained (2.3 10¹⁸ M₀ 3.9 10¹⁹Nm) are the first ever determined for these events. The magnitudeestimates (6.3 M_S 7.2 and 6.2 M_w 7.0) are robust and systematically lower than most of previousestimates for all earthquakes (Gutenberg and Richter, 1954; Christoskovand Grigorova, 1968; Karnik, 1969). For the largest Krupnik event ourestimates agree with those of Abe and Noguchi (1983b) and Pacheco andSykes (1992). The studied earthquakes all occur in moderately seismicactive regions, therefore our results may have significant consequences forhazard estimates in those regions.     

Global aridification in the second half of the 20th century and its relationship to large-scale climate background

The variation in surface wetness index (SWI), which was derived from global gridded monthly precipi- tation and monthly mean surface air temperature datasets of Climatic Research Unit (CRU), from 1951― 2002 over global land was analyzed in this paper. The characteristics of the SWI variation in global continents, such as North America, South America, Eurasia, Africa, and Australia, were compared. In addition, the correlation between the SWI variation of each continent (or across the globe) and the large-scale background closely related to SST variations, which affects climate change, was analyzed. The results indicate that the SWI variation shows distinct regional characteristics in the second half of the 20th century under global warming. A drying trend in the last 52 years occurred in Africa, Eurasia, Australia and South America, most obviously in Africa and Eurasia. North America shows a wetting trend after 1976. A 30-year period of dry-wet oscillation is found in South America and Australia; the latest is in a drying period in two regions. The results also revealed that global warming has changed the dry-wet pattern of the global land. South America and Australia have a drying trend despite in- creases in precipitation. This indicates that increases in surface air temperature cannot be ignored in aridification studies. Global dry-wet variation is closely related to large-scale SST variations: the drying trend in Africa and Eurasia and the wetting trend in North America are correlated with Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO); the interdecadal oscillation of SWI in South America and Australia is consistent with the interdecadal variation in Southern Oscillation Index (SOI).