小区域地震预测的新方法

本文应用动态系统时间连续模型建立的新方法（ＤＭ（ｎ，ｈ）模型），通过对唐山老震区ＭＬ＞４．７级地震的建模，讨论ＤＭ（ｎ，ｈ）模型对唐山老震区晚期强余震预测的可行性。并比较了ＤＭ（ｎ，ｈ）模型与ＧＭ（ｎ，ｈ）模型，发现ＤＭ（ｎ，ｈ）模型优于ＧＭ（ｎ，ｈ）模型，同时，给出了唐山老震区晚期强余震的预报结果。     

震源参数之间的定量关系

本文根据建立在平均二维破裂模式基础上的地震定标律,导出了地震矩 M0与各常用震级之间（1gM0-MS,ML,mb）,各种震级之间（Ms-ML,Ms-mb,ML-mb）,各震源参数之间（断层长度IgL,断层面积 lgS,平均错距 lgD-Ms,拐角频率 1gfc-ML）的各种常用的关系式.利用这些关系式,由一个震级值就可以估算出一系列震源参数.本文还求出了平均破裂速度 Vr=2.65km/s,总破裂时间 T（s）=0.5L（km）,平均位错速度 D（t）=11.4m/s.用矩震级 Mw 度量地震的大小,有四个优点:（1）地震矩反映了形变规模的大小,因此是度量地震大小的最佳物理量.（2）它是一个绝对力学标度,对任何大小地震都有意义,可测量,且不产生饱和问题.（3）它和我们已熟悉的震级标度可衔接.（4）它是一个均匀的震级标度,适用于宽尺度的地震统计.因此,Mw 是一种值得推广的震级标度.     

Stability of arsenopyrite and As(III) in low-temperature acidic solutions

Arsenopyrite is one of the most important pri-mary arsenic mineral. In the Eh-pH diagram of the As-O2-S-H2O system, if the total arsenic concentration (TAs) is taken to be 0.75 mg/L, the total sulfur con-centration, 32 mg/L, the temperature, 25℃and the pressure, one atmosphere pressure for the discrimina-tion of arsenic species, it may be found that under hy-pergene conditions, arsenopyrite is a moderately stable mineral. Only in the strongly alkaline and reducing environment can arsenopy…     

地磁加卸载响应比方法应用初探

以新疆地磁观测资料为基础，采用加卸载响应比方法进行回顾性研究发现，若响应比值P（Z）≥4.1，则在喀什周边地区有可能与1－11个月以后的地震有较好的对应。响应比值一般在震前1－11个月出现最大异常，个别地震在震前几天或发震同日出现；并且高响应比值对应的地震震级相对较高。乌鲁木齐的地磁响应比值异常并不意味着一定有中强地震对应，它主要反映了构造应力的变化。     

新的震级国家标准在陕西地震台网的应用

选取陕西地震台网及邻省共享台站记录到的2008年5月至2021年5月104次地震资料,应用新的震级国家标准GB 17740—2017《地震震级的规定》得到新国标震级。研究表明：①新的地方性震级M_L比原规范的M_L震级系统偏大0.3左右,这主要是二者的量规函数不同造成的;②宽频带面波震级M_{S （BB）}和矩震级M_W震级基本一致,无系统偏差,大多数地震震级偏差为-0.1—0.1;③宽频带面波震级M_{S （BB）}比面波震级M_{S （CENC）}整体偏小0.2,二者之间存在系统偏差;④绝大多数地震的面波震级M_{S （CENC）}比M_W偏大0.2—0.3,二者之间存在系统偏差。     

云南地震台网与中国地震台网、美国地震台网测定震级的对比

利用云南地震台网全面数字化之后(2008—2017年)的记录资料,按照《地震震级的规定》(GB17740—2017)规定的测定方法,对云南地震台网记录的ML≥4. 0地震,重新人工测量其宽频带面波震级MS(BB)和矩震级Mw,与中国地震台网测定的MS7以及美国地震台网(NEIC)测定的MW(NEIC)进行对比分析。结果表明:①MS(BB)和MS7测量方法相同,量规函数相等,两者一致性最好。②对于面波震级与矩震级,当MW在3. 5左右时,MS7,MS(BB)与MW一致性最好; MW<3. 5时,MS7和MS(BB)均小于MW; MW> 3. 5时,MS7和MS(BB)大于MW。③MS(BB)与美国地震台网相比较,MS(BB)在5. 5和6. 0左右时,与MW(NEIC)一致性最好,几乎相等; MS(BB)<5. 5时,MS(BB) 6. 0时,MS(BB)> MW(NEIC)。④MW和MW(NEIC)之间存在偏差,MW整体小于MW(NEIC)。     

Multivariate statistical methods and GIS based evaluation of the health risk potential and water quality due to arsenic pollution in the Kızılırmak River

The K?z?l?rmak River is Turkey's longest (1,355 km) river and it is important since it constitutes the drinking and irrigation water source of the Central Anatolia Region. In the current study, the spatial distribution, effect on irrigation water quality, environmental pollution status, ecotoxicological and health risks as well as possible sources of 12 potential toxic elements' (PTEs) (manganese (Mn), aluminum (Al), arsenic (As), chromium (Cr), zinc (Zn), iron (Fe), nickel (Ni), cadmium (Cd), cobalt (Co), copper (Cu), mercury (Hg), and lead (Pb)) concentrations from surface water samples in the K?z?l?rmak River were analyzed by using geographical information systems (GIS) software, ecotoxicological indices, and multivariate statistical analysis. As a result of the current study, it was determined that the As concentration is above the World Health Organization (WHO) limit values, and, in terms of the 12 PTEs, there is slight heavy metal contamination in the river according to the Heavy Metal Pollution Index (HPI) and Heavy Metal Evaluation Index (HEI) values and there is a low level of pollution. The Hazard Quotient for ingestion (HQ_ingestion) and Hazard Index (HI) values indicate that non-carcinogenic effects may occur. Exposure to river water is likely to result in a low level of carcinogenic risk (CR) in adults, mainly due to the As concentration. The water at Sampling Station S3 (131.79) cannot be used for drinking and is not suitable for consumption. According to the sodium percentage (Na%), Sodium Absorption Ratio (SAR), and Magnesium Hazard (MH) index results, river water is suitable for agricultural use.     

华南地区岩石圈电性特征及其地球动力学意义

岩石圈-软流圈界面（The Lithosphere-Asthenosphere Boundary,LAB）是地球内部主要界面之一.大地电磁测深（Magnetotelluric,MT）是研究地球壳幔电性结构最有效的方法,利用长周期大地电磁测深数据可以较好地探测LAB.在SinoProbe-01-03课题的资助下,首次获得了华南地区4°×4°网度的高质量大地电磁测深数据.利用一维奥卡姆（Occam）算法反演了MT阻抗的反对角线元素所计算出的平均视电阻率.根据一维地电结构可以将华南地区岩石圈划分为五种类型：以湖南邵阳和贵州施秉为代表的克拉通型,以四川达州和彭州及湖北荆门为代表的构造边界型,以浙江湖州和广东云浮为代表的岩石圈中等改造型,以江西赣州、广东揭阳及福建霞浦为代表的岩石圈强烈改造型,以湖北英山为代表的造山带型.除湖南邵阳、贵州施秉及广东揭阳外,华南地区岩石圈厚度为60~145 km.本文研究表明华南地区岩石圈显示出南北两侧上抬、中部下凹、东部受不均匀改造的趋势,这一结果与之前发表的文献所揭示的华南地区岩石圈东薄西厚的典型特征是不同的.研究结果反映华南地区岩石圈稳定性较好,晚中生代以来的构造伸展作用对岩石圈的改造程度有限,可能主要以不同形式的软流圈底辟为主.     

An operational modal analysis method in frequency and spatial domain

A frequency and spatial domain decomposition method （FSDD） for operational modal analysis （OMA） is presented in this paper, which is an extension of the complex mode indicator function （CMIF） method for experimental modal analysis （EMA）. The theoretical background of the FSDD method is clarified, Singular value decomposition is adopted to separate the signal space from the noise space. Finally, an enhanced power spectrum density （PSD） is proposed to obtain more accurate modal parameters by curve fitting in the frequency domain. Moreover, a simulation case and an application case are used to validate this method.     

Comparison of theory and experiment for solute transport in weakly heterogeneous bimodal porous media

In this work, the influence of non-equilibrium effects on solute transport in a weakly heterogeneous medium is discussed. Three macro-scale models (upscaled via the volume averaging technique) are investigated: (i) the two-equation non-equilibrium model, (ii) the one-equation asymptotic model and (iii) the one-equation local equilibrium model. The relevance of each of these models to the experimental system conditions (duration of the pulse injection, dispersivity values…) is analyzed. The numerical results predicted by these macroscale models are compared directly with the experimental data (breakthrough curves). Our results suggest that the preasymptotic zone (for which a non-Fickian model is required) increases as the solute input pulse time decreases. Beyond this limit, the asymptotic regime is recovered. A comparison with the results issued from the stochastic theory for this regime is performed. Results predicted by both approaches (volume averaging method and stochastic analysis) are found to be consistent.     

High-frequency and meso-scale winter sea-ice variability in the Southern Ocean in a high-resolution global ocean model

This study is on high-frequency temporal variability (HFV) and meso-scale spatial variability (MSV) of winter sea-ice drift in the Southern Ocean simulated with a global high-resolution (0.1°) sea ice-ocean model. Hourly model output is used to distinguish MSV characteristics via patterns of mean kinetic energy (MKE) and turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) of ice drift, surface currents, and wind stress, and HFV characteristics via time series of raw variables and correlations. We find that (1) along the ice edge, the MSV of ice drift coincides with that of surface currents, in particular such due to ocean eddies; (2) along the coast, the MKE of ice drift is substantially larger than its TKE and coincides with the MKE of wind stress; (3) in the interior of the ice pack, the TKE of ice drift is larger than its MKE, mostly following the TKE pattern of wind stress; (4) the HFV of ice drift is dominated by weather events, and, in the absence of tidal currents, locally and to a much smaller degree by inertial oscillations; (5) along the ice edge, the curl of the ice drift is highly correlated with that of surface currents, mostly reflecting the impact of ocean eddies. Where ocean eddies occur and the ice is relatively thin, ice velocity is characterized by enhanced relative vorticity, largely matching that of surface currents. Along the ice edge, ocean eddies produce distinct ice filaments, the realism of which is largely confirmed by high-resolution satellite passive-microwave data.     

南海夏季风爆发与南大洋海温变化之间的联系

利用1979-2009年NCEP第二套大气再分析资料和ERSST海温资料,分析南海夏季风爆发时间的年际和年代际变化特征,考察南海夏季风爆发早晚与南大洋海温之间的联系.主要结果为:(1)南海夏季风爆发时间年际和年代际变化明显,1979-1993年与1994-2009年前后两个阶段爆发时间存在阶段性突变;(2)南海夏季风爆发时间与前期冬季(12-1月)印度洋-南大洋(0-80°E,75°S-50°S)海温、春季(2-3月)太平洋-南大洋(170°E -80°W,75°S-50°S)海温都存在正相关关系,当前期冬、春季南大洋海温偏低(高)时,南海夏季风爆发偏早(晚).南大洋海温信号,无论是年际还是年代际变化,都对南海夏季风爆发具有一定的预测指示作用;(3)南大洋海温异常通过海气相互作用和大气遥相关影响南海夏季风爆发的迟早.当南大洋海温异常偏低(偏高)时,冬季南极涛动偏强(偏弱),同时通过遥相关作用使热带印度洋-西太平洋地区位势高度偏低(偏高)、纬向风加强(减弱),热带大气这种环流异常一直维持到春季4、5月份,位势高度和纬向风异常范围逐步向北扩展并伴随索马里越赤道气流的加强(减弱),从而为南海夏季风爆发偏早(偏晚)提供有利的环流条件.初步分析认为,热带大气环流对南大洋海气相互作用的遥响应与半球际大气质量重新分布引起的南北涛动有关.     

频高图F层异常分层现象的自动识别

频高图F层异常分层(增层)是指在常规电离层结构的基础上,由于电子密度被扰动而在频高图中出现多层回波结构,该F层异常分层(增层)现象在白天和晚上均可观测到.电离层异常分层(增层)主要由某种电动力学或者突发电离源导致电子密度出现扰动而形成,已经引起国内外学者的广泛关注和研究.目前从频高图中识别F层异常分层(增层)主要还是通过人工的方法,海量的频高图数据使该方法在研究F层异常分层(增层)统计特征时变得非常困难.有别于传统的图像分类算法中需要对图像特征进行提取,本文通过引入卷积神经网络(Convolution Neural Network, CNN),设计开发出一种能够自动识别存在F层异常分层(增层)频高图的方法,该方法可以直接输入频高图样本数据,省去了复杂的图像特征提取过程.本文设计的卷积神经网络经过训练以后F层异常分层(增层)识别率为85.82%,准确率90.36%.实验结果表明该卷积神经网络可以较好地自动识别出F层异常分层(增层)的频高图.     

Simultaneous elastic parameter inversion in 2-D/3-D TTI medium combined later arrival times

Traditional traveltime inversion for anisotropic medium is, in general, based on a “weak” assumption in the anisotropic property, which simplifies both the forward part (ray tracing is performed once only) and the inversion part (a linear inversion solver is possible). But for some real applications, a general (both “weak” and “strong”) anisotropic medium should be considered. In such cases, one has to develop a ray tracing algorithm to handle with the general (including “strong”) anisotropic medium and also to design a non-linear inversion solver for later tomography. Meanwhile, it is constructive to investigate how much the tomographic resolution can be improved by introducing the later arrivals. For this motivation, we incorporated our newly developed ray tracing algorithm (multistage irregular shortest-path method) for general anisotropic media with a non-linear inversion solver (a damped minimum norm, constrained least squares problem with a conjugate gradient approach) to formulate a non-linear inversion solver for anisotropic medium. This anisotropic traveltime inversion procedure is able to combine the later (reflected) arrival times. Both 2-D/3-D synthetic inversion experiments and comparison tests show that (1) the proposed anisotropic traveltime inversion scheme is able to recover the high contrast anomalies and (2) it is possible to improve the tomographic resolution by introducing the later (reflected) arrivals, but not as expected in the isotropic medium, because the different velocity (qP, qSV and qSH) sensitivities (or derivatives) respective to the different elastic parameters are not the same but are also dependent on the inclination angle.     

A new calcium-aluminate from a refractory inclusion in the Leoville carbonaceous chondrite

The first meteoritic occurrence of CaAl₄O₇ is described from a Ca-Al-rich inclusion (CAI) in the Leoville carbonaceous chondrite. This CAI consists mainly of gehlenitic melilite, spinel, perovskite, and hibonite. CaAl₄O₇ is a minor component and occurs within melilite preferentially in portions rich in perovskite.The CAI is enveloped by a succession of three rims (from inside out): (a) hibonite+melilite+spinel+perovskite, (b) diopside, and (c) olivine.On the basis of mineral associations found and from the presence of moderately volatile elements (Fe and Cr) we conclude that the CaAl₄O₇-bearing CAI from Leoville is of residual nature. CaAl₄O₇ is apparently stable in the very Mg- and Si-poor environment of this CAI and is probably of igneous origin.The rims are interpreted as products of partial evaporation (rim (a)) and associated re-condensation (rims (b) and (c)).     

Annual and monthly rainfall data generation schemes

Synthetic annual and monthly rainfall data series are generated by using autoregressive (AR) processes, Thomas-Fiering (TF) model, method of fragments (F) and its modified version (MF), two-tier (TT) model, and a newly developed wavelet (W) approach. It is seen that the W approach is as well in preserving the statistical behavior of the observed data series as the classical annual and monthly hydrological data generation schemes used in this study. The W approach is found even better in replacing some particular characteristics such as the mean of the sequence and correlation between the successive months in the series. It is, therefore, proposed as a new annual and monthly hydrological data generation scheme.     

Symmetry distribution of cities in China

The authors of this paper induced five principles of geographical symmetry based on the space distributions of cities and towns in China. There is a symmetry distribution of cities and towns. The symmetry characteristics are the following: (i) the average coordination number of the cities (including large cities, medium cities and county towns) is 6 (i.g. rotation symmetry); (ii) the distribution of large and medium cities are shown to be the latticework in which two directions are parallel to two main tectonic ones in China, respectively; (iii) the distribution of county towns of a province is also shown to be the latticework in which two directions are parallel to two tectonic ones in this province (i. g. two-dimensional translation) and (iv) the concentric circle distribution of cities (CCDC) is centered round a large city (i. g. rotation symmetry).     

Direct displacement-based design of seismically isolated bridges

A Displacement-Based Design (DBD) procedure for bridges equipped with different seismic Isolation Systems (IS’s) is proposed. It has been derived from the Direct DBD method recently developed by Priestley and co-workers. The key aspect of the proposed procedure is the definition of a uniform target displacement of the deck, which is assigned by the designer to accomplish a given performance level, expressed through limit values of the maximum IS displacement and of the pier drift, respectively. The proposed design procedure has been developed for four different idealized force-displacement cyclic behaviours of IS’s, which can be used to describe the response of a wide variety of IS’s, including: (i) Lead-Rubber Bearings (LRB), (ii) High-Damping Rubber Bearings (HDRB), (iii) Friction Pendulum Bearings (FPB), (iv) Combinations of either Low-Damping Rubber Bearings (LDRB) or FPB and Viscous Dampers (VD), (v) Combinations of lubricated Flat Sliding Bearings (FSB) and LDRB, (vi) Combinations of FSB and Steel Yielding Devices (SYD), (vii) Combinations of FSB, Shape Memory Alloy (SMA)-based Re-centring Devices and VD. In the paper, the background and implementation of the design procedure is presented first, then some validation studies through nonlinear time-history analyses on different configurations of continuous deck and multi-span simply supported deck bridges are illustrated.     

Variability of Convective Activity over the North Indian Ocean and its Associations with Monsoon Rainfall over India

The present study is an attempt to examine the variability of convective activity over the north Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea) on interannual and longer time scale and its association with the rainfall activity over the four different homogeneous regions of India (viz., northeast India, northwest India, central India and south peninsular India) during the monsoon season from June to September (JJAS) for the 26 year period (1979 to 2004). The monthly mean Outgoing Long-wave Radiation (OLR) data obtained from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) polar orbiting spacecraft are used in this study and the 26-year period has been divided into two periods of 13 years each with period-i from 1979 to 1991 and period -ii from 1992 to 2004. It is ascertained that the convective activity increases over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal in the recent period (period -ii; 1992 to 2004) compared to that of the former period (period -i; 1979 to 1991) during JJAS and is associated with a significantly increasing trend (at 95% level) of convective activity over the north Bay of Bengal (NBAY). On a monthly scale, July and August also show increase in convective activity over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal during the recent period and this is associated with slight changes in the monsoon activity cycle over India. The increase in convective activity particularly over the Arabian Sea during the recent period of June is basically associated with about three days early onset of the monsoon over Delhi and relatively faster progress of the monsoon northward from the southern tip of India. Over the homogeneous regions of India the correlation coefficient (CC) of OLR anomalies over the south Arabian Sea (SARA) is highly significant with the rainfall over central India, south peninsular India and northwest India, and for the north Arabian Sea (NARA), it is significant with northwest India rainfall and south peninsular rainfall. Similarly, the OLR anomalies over the south Bay of Bengal (SBAY) have significant CC with northwest India and south peninsular rainfall, whereas the most active convective region of the NBAY is not significantly correlated with rainfall over India. It is also found that the region over northeastern parts of India and its surroundings has a negative correlation with the OLR anomalies over the NARA and is associated with an anomalous sinking (rising) motion over the northeastern parts of India during the years of increase (decrease) of convective activity over the NARA.     

The baroclinic circulation structure of Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass

The Yellow Sea is a semi-enclosed shallow sea with a deep trough of about 80 m. On the hy-drographic condition in the Yellow Sea, Lie[1] pointed out that it is strongly associated with winter cooling and summer heating, fresh input from rivers into the co…