Numerieal prediction of storm surge in the Qingdao area under the impact of climate change

A typhoon-induced storm surge simulation system was developed for the Qingdao area, including a typhoon diagnostic model for the generation of wind and pressure fields and a 2D Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model for simulating the associated storm surge with a 200 m resolution along the Qingdao coastline. The system was validated by an extreme surge event Typhoon Mamie (8509) and the parameters of Typhoon Mamie were used to investigate the sensitivity of typhoon paths to Qingdao storm surges with four selected paths: the paths of Typhoons Mamie (8509), Opal, 3921 and 2413, the selection being made according to their relative position to Qingdao. Experiments based on the Typhoon Mamie (8509) storm surge were also conducted to study the possible influences of future climate changes, including the sea level rise and sea surface temperature (SST) rise, on storm surges along the Qingdao coast. Storm surge conditions under both present day and future (the end of the 21st century) climate scenarios associated with the four selected paths were simulated. The results show that with the same intensity, when typhoons follow the paths of 3921 and 2413, they would lead to the most serious disasters in different areas of Qingdao. Sea level and SST affect storm surges in different ways: sea level rise affects storm surge mainly through its influence on the tide amplitude, while the increased SST has direct impact on the intensity of the surges. The possible maximum risk of storm surges in 2100 in the Qingdao area caused by typhoons like Mamie (8509) was also estimated in this study.     

Stochastic Model for Estimating Extreme Water Level in Port and Coastal Engineering Design

Extreme water level is an important consideration when designing coastal protection structures. However, frequency analysis recommended by standard codes only considers the annual maximum water level, whereas water levels should actually be regarded as a combination of astronomical tide and storm surge. The two impacting factors are both random variables, and this paper discusses their dependency structures and proposes a new joint probability method to determine extreme design water levels. The lognormal, Gumbel, Weibull, Pearson type 3, traditional maximum entropy, and modified maximum entropy distributions are applied to fit univariate data of astronomical tides and storm surges separately, and the bivariate normal, Gumbel-Hougaard, Frank and Clayton copulas are then utilized to construct their joint probability distributions. To ensure that the new design method is suitable for use with typhoon data, the annual occurrence frequency of typhoon processes is considered and corresponding bivariate compound probability distributions are proposed. Based on maximum water level data obtained from Hengmen hydrological station in the Pearl River Basin, China, these probability models are applied to obtain designs for extreme water levels using the largest sum of the astronomical tide and storm surge obtained under fixed joint return periods. These design values provide an improved approach for determining the necessary height of coastal and offshore structures.     

台风风暴潮情景构建与时空推演

因台风风暴潮的突发性、情景演变时间的连续性和路径的不确定性,导致应急决策者在应急救援中难以做出正确决策,针对这一现状,将“情景—应对”应用在台风风暴潮应急决策中。本文在分析台风风暴潮情景、情景要素的概念模型基础上,首先通过资料搜集、属性识别等方法提取关键情景要素,采用框架表示法构建情景;然后分析台风风暴潮情景演变规律及演变路径;其次通过动态贝叶斯网络法构建台风风暴潮动态情景网络;最后利用先验概率与条件概率计算情景状态概率,实现了台风风暴潮的关键情景推演。本文以2018年9月16日11时至17时山竹台风对广东省沿海城市影响为例,演示了台风风暴潮的情景推演流程及关键技术。实证分析结果表明,溃堤、海水倒灌、洪水、滑坡发生的概率分别为85%、81%、74%、54%,验证了情景推演在风暴潮中应用的合理性。     

A preliminary study on the intensity of cold wave storm surges of Laizhou Bay

Dike failure and marine losses are quite prominent in Laizhou Bay during the period of cold wave storm surges because of its open coastline to the north and flat topography. In order to evaluate the intensity of cold wave storm surge, the hindcast of marine elements induced by cold waves in Laizhou Bay from 1985 to 2004 is conducted using a cold wave storm surge–wave coupled model and the joint return period of extreme water level, concomitant wave height, and concomitant wind speed are calculated. A new criterion of cold wave storm surge intensity based on such studies is developed. Considering the frequency of cold wave, this paper introduces a Poisson trivariate compound reconstruction model to calculate the joint return period, which is closer to the reality. By using the newly defined cold wave storm surge intensity, the ‘cold wave grade' in meteorology can better describe the severity of cold wave storm surges and the warning level is well corresponding to different intensities of cold wave storm surges. Therefore, it provides a proper guidance to marine hydrological analysis, disaster prevention and marine structure design in Laizhou Bay.     

Numerical Simulation and Analysis of Storm Surges Under Different Extreme Weather Event and Typhoon Experiments in the South Yellow Sea

In this study,a coupled tide-surge-wave model was developed and applied to the South Yellow Sea.The coupled model simulated the evolution of storm surges and waves caused by extreme weather events,such as tropical cyclones,cold waves,extratropical cyclones coupled with a cold wave,and tropical cyclones coupled with a cold wave.The modeled surge level and significant wave height matched the measured data well.Simulation results of the typhoon with different intensities revealed that the radius to the maximum wind speed of a typhoon with 1.5 times wind speed decreased,and its influence range was farther away from the Jiangsu coastal region;moreover,the impact on surge levels was weakened.Thereafter,eight hypothetical typhoons based on Typhoon Chan-hom were designed to investigate the effects of varying typhoon tracks on the extreme value and spatial distribution of storm surges in the offshore area of Jiangsu Province.The typhoon along path 2 mainly affected the Rudong coast,and the topography of the Rudong coast was conducive to the increase in surge level.Therefore,the typhoon along path 2 induced the largest surge level,which reached up to 2.91 m in the radial sand ridge area.The maximum surge levels in the Haizhou Bay area and the middle straight coastline area reached up to 2.37 and 2.08 m,respectively.In terms of typhoons active in offshore areas,the radial sand ridge area was most likely to be threatened by typhoon-induced storm surges.     

The Characteristics of Storm Wave Behavior and Its Effect on Cage Culture Using the ADCIRC+SWAN Model in Houshui Bay,China

The current storm wave hazard assessment tends to rely on a statistical method using wave models and fewer historical data which do not consider the effects of tidal and storm surge.In this paper,the wave-current coupled model ADCIRC+SWAN was used to hindcast storm events in the last 30 years.We simulated storm wave on the basis of a large set of historical storms in the North-West Pacific Basin between 1985 and 2015 in Houshui Bay using the wave-current coupled model ADCIRC+SWAN to obtain the storm wave level maps.The results were used for the statistical analysis of the maximum significant wave heights in Houshui Bay and the behavior of wave associated with storm track.Comparisons made between observations and simulated results during typhoon Rammasun(2014)indicate agreement.In addition,results demonstrate that significant wave height in Houshui Bay is dominated by the storm wind velocity and the storm track.Two groups of synthetic storm tracks were designed to further investigate the worst case of typhoon scenarios.The storm wave analysis method developed for the Houshui Bay is significant in assisting government's decision-making in rational planning of deep sea net-cage culture.The method can be applied to other bays in the Hainan Island as well.     

Wave-current interaction during Typhoon Nuri (2008) and Hagupit (2008):an application of the coupled ocean-wave modeling system in the northern South China Sea

The northern South China Sea(SCS) is frequently affected by typhoons. During severe storm events, wave-current interactions produce storm surges causing enormous damage in the path of the typhoon. To evaluate the influence of wave-current interactions on storm surge, we used a coupled ocean-atmospherewave-sediment transport(COAWST) modeling system with radiation-stress and vortex-force formulations to simulate two typically intense tropical storms that invaded the SCS, namely Typhoons Nuri(2008) and Hagupit(2008), and compared results with observations from the Hong Kong Observatory. Both radiationstress and vortex-force formulations significantly improved the accuracy of the simulation. Depending on which typhoon and the topography encountered, the influence of surface waves on the oceanic circulation showed different characteristics, including the differences of range and intensity of storm surge between vortex-force and radiation-stress experiments. During typhoon landing, strong sea-surface elevation in concert with wave set-up/set-down caused the adjustment of the momentum balance. In the direction perpendicular to the current, but especially in the cross-shore direction, the pressure gradient and wave effects on the current dominated the momentum balance.     

Predict typhoon-induced storm surge deviation in a principal component back-propagation neural network model

To reduce typhoon-caused damages, numerical and empirical methods are often used to forecast typhoon storm surge. However, typhoon surge is a complex nonlinear process that is difficult to forecast accurately. We applied a principal component back-propagation neural network (PCBPNN) to predict the deviation in typhoon storm surge, in which data of the typhoon, upstream flood, and historical case studies were involved. With principal component analysis, 15 input factors were reduced to five principal components, and the application of the model was improved. Observation data from Huangpu Park in Shanghai, China were used to test the feasibility of the model. The results indicate that the model is capable of predicting a 12-hour warning before a typhoon surge.     

RELATIVE SEA LEVEL RISE AND ITS EFFECTS ON ENVIRONMENT AND RESOURCES IN CHINAS COASTAL AREAS

ＲＥＬＡＴＩＶＥＳＥＡＬＥＶＥＬＲＩＳＥＡＮＤＩＴＳＥＦＦＥＣＴＳＯＮＥＮＶＩＲＯＮＭＥＮＴＡＮＤＲＥＳＯＵＲＣＥＳＩＮＣＨＩＮＡＳＣＯＡＳＴＡＬＡＲＥＡＳ￥ＹａｎｇＧｕｉｓｈａｎ（杨桂山）（ＮａｎｊｉｎｇＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＧｅｏｇｒａｐｈｙａｎ...     

Relative sea level rise and its effects on environment and resources in China’s coastal areas

Due to global climate warming and natural and man-made land subsidence etc., relative sea level rise in the coastal plains of China will exceed 2–3 times over the golbal mean value during the first half part of the 21st century. It will result in a series of adverse impacts on evolution of natural environment and socioeconomic development of the coastal area. This paper analyses environmental and resource effects induced by relative sea level rise in China’s coastal areas on the basis of rough estimate of future relative sea level rise. These effects include inundating tidal flat and wetlands and increase in inundated risk of coastal habitable land, exacerbating storm surge. coastal erosion, flooding and salt water intrusion hazards, as well as endangering land, water, tourism and living resources and their utilization.     

A numerical study of the effects of coastal geometry in the Bohai Sea on storm surges induced by cold-air outbreaks

Strom surges are not only determined by the atmospheric forcing,but also influenced by the coastal geometry and bathymetry.The Bohai Sea,as one of China’s marginal seas,is seriously harmed by storm surges,especially those caused by cold-air outbreaks.As the coastline of the Bohai Sea has changed evidently these years,storm surges may have new characteristics due to the changes in the local geometry.This paper aims to find out these new characteristics by primarily investigating the influence of the changes in the local geometry on storm surges with numerical methods.20 scenarios were constructed based on the track and inten-sity of the cold-air outbreaks to describe the actual situation.By analyzing the model results of the control scenarios,it is found that the main changes of the maximum surge elevation occur in the Bohai Bay and the Laizhou Bay.At the top of the Bohai Bay,the maximum surge elevation is obviously decreased,while in the Laizhou Bay,it is enhanced by the growing Yellow River Delta.This,however,does not suggest that the storm surges in the Laizhou Bay become more serious.A comparison of the risk assessment of storm surges in the Tanggu,Huanghua and Yangjiaogou regions shows that the risk of storm surges in these coastal areas is lightened by the evolvement of the coastal geometry.Particularly near Yangjiaogou,though the maximum surge elevation becomes higher to subject more areas to risk,the risk is still reduced by the evolvement of the Yellow River Delta.     

A numerical study of the vertical structure of typhoon surge currents

In the present paper a three-dimensional model has been used to calculate the vertical structure of the current generated by typhoon surge. The aim of this work is to obtain support for the depth-averaged model, which is based upon two basic assumptions. One of them is that the current has a negligible vertical structure and the other is that the velocity veering angle is small. Our results show that, in most of the real storm surge cases, these two assumptions are quite good approximations of the real situation, especially when water is shallow, and the locations are near the shore. These features are usually encountered in the real storm surges with which we are concerned. Therefore, we can expect that the two-dimensional depth-averaged model will give satisfactory results. The experiments carried out by using a straight coastline and uniform depth give vertical structures which are compatible with the conclusions previously reached by other authors.     

An Elliptical Wind Field Model of Typhoons

1　Introduction　Thestormsurgeisoneofthemostimportantphe nomenathatendangerthecoastalengineeringfacili ties .Everyyearthereareabout 1 2tropicalcyclonesmakinglandfallatthemainlandofChinafromMaytoOctober (MuandTu ,2 0 0 0 ) .Whentheastronomictideishigh ,the…     

Numerical study on the spatially varying drag coefficient in simulation of storm surges employing the adjoint method

From the simulation of storm surges resulting from Typhoons 7203 and 8509 in the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea and East China Sea, water level data at tide stations are assimilated into a two-dimensional storm surge model, to study the spatially varying drag coefficient (DC) by employing the adjoint method. In this study, the DC at some grid points is uniformly selected as the independent DC, while the DC at other grid points is obtained through linear interpolation of the independent DC. The DC at independent points is optimized by employing the adjoint assimilation method, and global optimization is achieved by optimizing the independent DC. To demonstrate the method’s performance, three comparative experiments are carried out. In the first experiment, the DC is treated as a constant. In the second and third experiments, the DC is derived using an empirical formula. Comparing the experimental results, it is found that the simulation accuracy for both Typhoons 7203 and 8509 increases greatly when optimizing the independent DC. However, the number of independent points makes no great difference to the precision of simulation. Moreover, the DC inverted from Typhoons 7203 and 8509 differs in some sea areas because of the different typhoon tracks. However, the spatial distribution of the inverted DC, for both Typhoons 7203 and 8509, demonstrates a clear effect of the DC on the storm surge modeling near the coastal areas where the DC is highest or lowest.     

Numerical Simulation of Typhoon Muifa(2011) Using a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport(COAWST) Modeling System

The newly developed Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport(COAWST) Modeling System is applied to investigate typhoon-ocean interactions in this study. The COAWST modeling system represents the state-of-the-art numerical simulation technique comprising several coupled models to study coastal and environmental processes. The modeling system is applied to simulate Typhoon Muifa(2011), which strengthened from a tropical storm to a super typhoon in the Northwestern Pacific, to explore the heat fluxes exchanged among the processes simulated using the atmosphere model WRF, ocean model ROMS and wave model SWAN. These three models adopted the same horizontal grid. Three numerical experiments with different coupling configurations are performed in order to investigate the impact of typhoon-ocean interaction on the intensity and ocean response to typhoon. The simulated typhoon tracks and intensities agree with observations. Comparisons of the simulated variables with available atmospheric and oceanic observations show the good performance of using the coupled modeling system for simulating the ocean and atmosphere processes during a typhoon event. The fully coupled simulation that includes a ocean model identifies a decreased SST as a result of the typhoon-forced entrainment. Typhoon intensity and wind speed are reduced due to the decrease of the sea surface temperature when using a coupled ocean model. The experiments with ocean coupled to atmosphere also results in decreased sea surface heat flux and air temperature. The heat flux decreases by about 29% compared to the WRF only case. The reduction of the energy induced by SST decreases, resulting in weakening of the typhoon. Coupling of the waves to the atmosphere and ocean model induces a slight increase of SST in the typhoon center area with the ocean-atmosphere interaction increased as a result of wave feedback to atmosphere.     

Nonlinear fitting method of long-term distributions for statistical analysis of extreme negative surge elevations

1　Introduction　Thestormsurgeduetoamovingmeteorologicalde pressioncausesabnormalchangesofseasurfaceeleva tion ,includingthenegativesurgeelevations .Hydro logicfrequencyanalysisofnegativesurgeelevationsplaysanimportantroleinmarinestructuredesignanddisasterprevention .Thedeterminationofthedesignparameterswillgreatlyaffecttheplanningofnaviga tion .Variousstudieshavecontributedvaluablefind ingstothistopic (e.g.CarterandChallenor ,1981;IsaacsonandMacKenzie ,1981;Muir ,1986 ;Goda ,1988;Vledder …     

台风-非台风降雨型滑坡的多时段临界雨量值预测模型

统计确定临界降雨量是滑坡早期预警常用的方法。东南沿海地区台风暴雨不同于一般降雨, 常引发滑坡灾害, 从而威胁沿海地区人民生命财产安全。为了建立台风和非台风降雨型滑坡临界降雨量预测模型, 以浙江丽水市为例, 基于2010-2020年台风暴雨、非台风降雨诱发滑坡与降雨量的统计, 构建了丽水市滑坡发生概率和有效降雨量的关系, 提出了多时长临界降雨量预测模型, 并开展了台风和非台风降雨型滑坡预测模型结果的对比分析。结果表明, 非台风降雨与台风暴雨之间雨型和雨量差异是导致丽水市内2类降雨滑坡预测模型差异的主要原因; 以多时长预测模型确定的临界雨量值法和有效降雨天数更加符合丽水市降雨型滑坡的预测预报, 且预测精度相比于传统相关性分析法更高。研究成果对于开发区域降雨型滑坡预测模型具有理论意义, 对我国东南沿海地区汛期滑坡早期预警具有重要实际意义。      

The impact of coastal reclamation on tidal and storm surge level in Sanmen Bay,China

In recent years, fast economic development demands for more land use and thus many reclamation projects are initiated around the Sanmen Bay, Zhejiang, SE China in the East China Sea, for which tidal and storm surge levels are reassessed. A two-dimensional numerical model based on an advanced circulation model(ADCIRC) was applied to evaluate the impact of reclamation projects on tidal and storm surge levels in the bay. The results show that the shoreline relocation and topographic change had opposite effects on tidal heights. Shoreline relocation decreased the tidal amplitude, while siltation caused topographic change and increased the amplitude. Such variations of the amplitude were significant in the top areas of Sanmen Bay. Three types of typhoon paths were selected for a case study to investigate the impacts of shoreline relocation and topographic change on storm surge level. Results show that the maximum increase in storm surge level due to shoreline relocation was less than 0.06 m. The rise of peak surge level due to the change of topography was significant and the peak surge level rose when siltation increased. The maximum surge level rise occurred in the path of northwest landing typhoons, which exceeded 0.24 m at the top of the bay. The rise in peak surge level can potentially lead to severe damages and losses in Sanmen Bay and more attention needs to be paid to this problem of shoreline change in the future.     

连续台风时期香港区域的水汽变化分析

利用香港卫星定位参考站网GNSS观测数据,提取强热带风暴"塔拉斯"与热带风暴"洛克"影响期间各测站天顶方向对流层延迟,反演香港区域大气可降水量;根据香港区域49个天文台气象站提供的实测降雨量数据,分析大气可降水量与实际降雨量的相关性,以及两次台风对香港区域水汽时空分布的不同影响。结果表明,大气可降水量在台风影响前期均上升,在大量降雨后回落,但在连续台风的间歇期间,仍高于台风来临前的水平;水汽累积是大量降雨的前提条件,当水汽累积量相近时,水汽累积时长与累积降雨量呈正相关;台风期间大气可降水量值超过65 mm的区域面积与台风等级相关,台风路径对局部水汽分布有一定的影响。     

An ultra-shallow water storm surge model with quadratically depth-varying eddy viscosity and its application to the numerical modelling of the Bohai Sea storm surges

Based on the ultra-shallow water storm surge theory proposed by Qin and Feng^[1] (1975), an ultra-shallow water storm surge model, taking into consideration the effect of the earth's rotation and the quadratically depth-varying eddy viscosity, is developed. Using the model wind stress fields as a guide for representing the effect of wind stress forcing in our model, a numerical investigation of the Bohai Sea wind surge is made. As a better means for solving the mathematical model, the Galerkin finite element technique is employed in numerical solutions. Under the control of the main weather situation, namely, the cold wave combined with the extratropical cyclone, two storm surge processes experienced on the Bohai Sea are simulated numerically. It is found that the experimental results, in the main, are in agreement with the observations.