Assimilation of the multisatellite data into the WRF model for track and intensity simulation of the Indian Ocean tropical cyclones

Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model and its three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3D-Var) system are used to investigate the impact of the Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) near surface winds, Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I)-derived Total Precipitable Water (TPW), and Meteosat-7-derived Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMVs) on the track and intensity prediction of tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean. The case of tropical cyclone, Gonu (June 2007; Arabian Sea), is first tested and the results show significant improvements particularly due to the assimilation of QuikSCAT winds. Three other cases, cyclone Mala (April 2006; Bay of Bengal), Orissa super cyclone (October 1999; Bay of Bengal), and Very Severe Cyclonic storm (October 1999; Bay of Bengal), are then examined. The prediction of cyclone tracks improved significantly with the assimilation of QuikSCAT winds. The track improvement resulted from the relocation of the initial cyclonic vortices after the assimilation of QuikSCAT wind vectors. After the assimilation of QuikSCAT winds, the mean (for four cyclone cases) track errors for first, second, and third day forecasts are reduced to 72, 101, and 166?km, respectively, from 190, 250, and 381?km of control (without QuikSCAT winds) runs. The assimilation of QuikSCAT winds also shows positive impact on the intensity (in terms of maximum surface level winds) prediction particularly for those cyclones, which are at their initial stages of the developments at the time of data assimilation. The assimilation of SSM/I TPW has significant influence (negative and positive) on the cyclone track. In three of the four cases, the assimilation of the SSM/I TPW resulted in drying of lower troposphere over cyclonic region. This decrease of moisture in TPW assimilation experiment resulted in reduction of cyclonic intensity. In three of the four cyclones, the assimilation of Meteosat-7 AMVs shows negative impact on the track prediction.     

A study of vertical cloud structure of the Indian summer monsoon using CloudSat data

Precise specification of the vertical distribution of cloud optical properties is important to reduce the uncertainty in quantifying the radiative impacts of clouds. The new global observations of vertical profiles of clouds from the CloudSat mission provide opportunities to describe cloud structures and to improve parameterization of clouds in the weather and climate prediction models. In this study, four years (2007–2010) of observations of vertical structure of clouds from the CloudSat cloud profiling radar have been used to document the mean vertical structure of clouds associated with the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and its intra-seasonal variability. Active and break monsoon spells associated with the intra-seasonal variability of ISM have been identified by an objective criterion. For the present analysis, we considered CloudSat derived column integrated cloud liquid and ice water, and vertically profiles of cloud liquid and ice water content. Over the South Asian monsoon region, deep convective clouds with large vertical extent (up to 14 km) and large values of cloud water and ice content are observed over the north Bay of Bengal. Deep clouds with large ice water content are also observed over north Arabian Sea and adjoining northwest India, along the west coast of India and the south equatorial Indian Ocean. The active monsoon spells are characterized by enhanced deep convection over the Bay of Bengal, west coast of India and northeast Arabian Sea and suppressed convection over the equatorial Indian Ocean. Over the Bay of Bengal, cloud liquid water content and ice water content is enhanced by ~90 and ~200 % respectively during the active spells. An interesting feature associated with the active spell is the vertical tilting structure of positive CLWC and CIWC anomalies over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, which suggests a pre-conditioning process for the northward propagation of the boreal summer intra-seasonal variability. It is also observed that during the break spells, clouds are not completely suppressed over central India. Instead, clouds with smaller vertical extent (3–5 km) are observed due to the presence of a heat low type of circulation. The present results will be useful for validating the vertical structure of clouds in weather and climate prediction models.     

A model study on oceanic processes during the Indian Ocean Dipole termination

In this study, the processes affecting the temperature variability over the Southeastern Tropical Indian Ocean (STIO) during 1958–2000, accomplishing the positive and negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events are analyzed. The upper ocean heat budget analysis of the STIO has been carried out to understand the oceanic process during the termination of the recent strongest IOD events. The three recent strongest positive IOD events (1961, 1994 and 1997) and a strong negative IOD event (1996) are considered for detailed analysis. The heat budget analysis revealed that the positive net-surface heat flux and vertical advection played dominant roles in the termination of 1997 IOD event, whereas horizontal and vertical advections are responsible for the termination of IOD events during 1961 and 1994. The anomalous negative surface heat flux and horizontal advection caused the dipole termination during the negative dipole year 1996. The findings are well supported by the analysis of anomaly correlation between model upper ocean heat content tendency and heat budget components. Significant intra-seasonal oscillations (ISOs) in sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly are seen during the initial phase of termination in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean during 1961 and 1994 IOD events. The influence of ISOs in SST is not so evident during the IOD termination in 1997. It is found that the termination processes have started more than a month prior to the actual IOD termination.     

初夏孟加拉湾东部降水异常对印度洋海温偶极子的触发作用

基于1982—2013年逐月NCEP资料及GODAS资料,采用回归分析、合成分析以及2.5层简化海洋模式数值模拟等方法,研究了热带东印度洋的大气和海洋过程对印度洋海温偶极子(IOD,Indian Ocean Dipole)东极(IODE,IOD East pole)海温异常的影响。结果表明,IODE海温异常的演变超前IOD西极(IODW,IOD West pole)海温异常的演变,并对IOD事件的生成和发展起到关键作用。初夏,来自阿拉伯海、中南半岛地区以及孟加拉湾西南部的水汽输送,导致孟加拉湾东部出现强降水。降水释放的潜热在热带东印度形成了一个跨越赤道的经向环流,有利于加强赤道东印度洋的过赤道气流,并在苏门答腊沿岸形成偏南风异常。该异常偏南风通过影响混合层垂向夹卷混合过程和纬向平流过程,导致IODE海温迅速下降。随后赤道东南印度洋异常东南风迅速增强以及赤道中印度洋东风异常的出现,增强了自东南印度洋向西印度洋的水汽输送,削弱了向孟加拉湾的水汽输送,使西南印度洋的降水增强,孟加拉湾东部的降水减弱。因此,IOD达到盛期前孟加拉湾东部的降水通过局地经向环流在苏门答腊沿岸形成偏南风异常,导致苏门答腊沿岸迅速的降温,并最终导致IOD事件的发生。     

1994年印度洋偶极子对两广地区后汛期降水异常的影响机理

利用1979—2017年中国地面气象台站2 400站中广东省和广西壮族自治区（简称两广地区）174站的逐日降水资料、英国Hadley中心的逐月海表温度资料、NCEP/NCAR逐月再分析资料,分析了1994年华南后汛期（7—9月）期间印度洋偶极子（Indian Ocean Dipole,IOD）对两广降水极端正异常的影响机理。结果表明,1994年的正位相IOD事件引起了两广地区后汛期偏多,影响机制主要为两方面：一方面,IOD东极子区域海温负异常时,水汽沿着印度北部-孟加拉湾北部-中南半岛-两广地区和孟加拉湾中部-中南半岛-两广地区的异常水汽输送通道向两广地区输送,使得两广地区水汽异常辐合;另一方面,IOD东极子区域海温异常偏低时,该地区对流层低层异常辐散、高层异常辐合、存在异常下沉运动,两广地区对流层低层异常辐合、高层异常辐散、受异常上升运动控制。上述物理机制共同作用,导致1994年后汛期两广地区降水极端正异常。     

Effect of 3DVAR assimilation of MODIS temperature and humidity profiles on the dynamic and thermodynamic features of three monsoon depressions over the Bay of Bengal

The three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) technique in the advanced weather research and forecast model is used to study the impact of assimilating Moderate Resolution Spectroradiometer (MODIS) retrieved temperature and humidity profiles on the dynamic and thermodynamic features for three monsoon depressions over the Bay of Bengal, India. For better understanding of the role of various physical processes in the evolution of monsoon depression, a detailed diagnostic study is performed on all the three depression cases. Numerical experiments were conducted in a system of two-way nested domains with a horizontal resolution of 36 and 12 km, respectively. The assimilation of MODIS data did improve the mean sea level pressure patterns and spatial distribution of rainfall patterns in all the three monsoon depression cases studied. Higher values of equitable threat score and lower bias values are seen consistently for the entire rainfall threshold range and for all the three depression cases with 3DVAR assimilation of MODIS temperature and humidity profiles. The current operational regional models in India do not ingest the MODIS temperature and humidity profiles and hence the present study is particularly relevant to the operational forecasting community in India in their ongoing efforts to improve weather forecasting over India.     

Response of the tropical Indian Ocean SST to decay phase of La Niña and associated processes

Delayed impact of El Niño on Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) Sea Surface Temperature (SST) variations and associated physical mechanisms are well documented by several studies. However, TIO SST evolution during the decay phase of La Niña and related processes are not adequately addressed before. Strong cooling associated with La Niña decay over the TIO could influence climate over the Indian Oceanic rim including Indian summer monsoon circulation and remotely northwest Pacific circulation. Thus understanding the TIO basin-wide cooling and related physical mechanisms during decaying La Niña years is important. Composite analyses revealed that negative SST anomalies allied to La Niña gradually dissipate from its mature phase (winter) till subsequent summer in central and eastern Pacific. In contrast, magnitude of negative SST anomalies in TIO, induced by La Niña, starts increasing from winter and attains their peak values in early summer. It is found that variations in heat flux play an important role in SST cooling over the central and eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, Bay of Bengal and part of Arabian Sea from late winter to early summer during the decay phase of La Niña. Ocean dynamical processes are mainly responsible for the evolution of southern TIO SST cooling. Strong signals of westward propagating upwelling Rossby waves between 10°S to 20°S are noted throughout (the decaying phase of La Niña) spring and summer. Anomalous cyclonic wind stress curl to the south of the equator is responsible for triggering upwelling Rossby waves over the southeastern TIO. Further, upwelling Rossby waves are also apparent in the Arabian Sea from spring to summer and partly contributing to the SST cooling. Heat budget analysis reveals that negative SST/MLT (mixed layer temperature) anomalies over the Arabian Sea are mostly controlled by heat flux from winter to spring and vertical advection plays an important role during early summer. Vertical and horizontal advection terms primarily contribute to the SST cooling anomalies over southern TIO and the Bay of Bengal cooling is primarily dominated by heat flux. Further we have discussed influence of TIO cooling on local rainfall variations.     

南海夏季风爆发前后SST异常特征及其与近地面西南气流的关系

利用1982~1999年周平均海表温度资料和逐日近地面风场资料,采用合成分析与相关分析技术,研究了南海和孟加拉湾地区夏季风爆发前后短时间尺度SST变率的异常及其与近地面西南气流的关系。结果表明:季风爆发前2周,南海和孟加拉湾海温的上升除与海洋现象有关外,还与大气的影响因子有一定的关系;季风爆发后1~2周,南海和孟加拉湾海温变率出现较大差异,二者西南部海温降低,而其东海岸及西北部海温却升高;海温变率这种异常分布与西南气流的变化具有较好的相关性,即西南气流的增强导致南海西南部和孟加拉湾西南部海温降低及二者东海岸与西北部海温升高,这是由于离岸的上翻作用及海洋蒸发作用共同所致。     

孟加拉湾对流对广西秋季暴雨影响分析

利用综合观测数据1 °×1 °FNL和2.5 °×2.5 °NCEP再分析资料、以及卫星云顶黑体辐射温度资料（TBB）,对2015年11月广西出现的三次暴雨过程（8日、11—12日和20日）的850 hPa水汽通量散度及水汽输送特征进行了对比分析。8日和20日暴雨的低层水汽主要来自南海,11—12日连续暴雨的水汽来自南海和孟加拉湾。暴雨前后TBB的分析表明,在暴雨发生前2~3 d,孟加拉湾对流发展到最强,孟加拉湾对流对广西秋季暴雨具有前兆信号特征。暴雨前后TBB时空剖面表明,暴雨发生前孟加拉湾对流有向广西波动传播的特征。模式敏感性实验显示,当关闭孟加拉湾对流2~3 d后,广西48 h累计雨量减小。      

Air-Sea Interaction over the Indian Ocean During the Two Contrasting Monsoon Years 1987 and 1988 Studied with Satellite Data

Summary The air-sea interaction processes over the tropical Indian Ocean region are studied using sea surface temperature data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer sensor onboard the NOAA series of satellites. The columnar water-vapour content, low-level atmospheric humidity, precipitation, wind speed, and back radiation from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager on board the U.S. Defense Meteorological Satellite Program are all examined for two contrasting monsoon years, namely 1987 (deficit rainfall) and 1988 (excess rainfall). From these parameters the longwave radiative net flux at the sea surface and the ocean-air moisture flux are derived for further analysis of the air-sea interaction in the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal, the south China Sea and the southern Indian Ocean. An analysis of ten-day and monthly mean evaporation rates over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal shows that the evaporation was higher in these areas during the low rainfall year (1987) indicating little or no influence of this parameter on the ensuing monsoon activity over the Indian subcontinent. On the other hand, the evaporation in the southern Indian Ocean was higher during July and September 1988 when compared with the same months of 1987. The evaporation rate over the south Indian Ocean and the low-level cross-equatorial moisture flux seem to play a major role on the ensuing monsoon activity over India while the evaporation over the Arabian Sea is less important. Since we have only analysed one deficit/ excess monsoon cycle the results presented here are of preliminary nature. Received November 5, 1997 Revised March 20, 1998     

GTS的温盐资料在BCC_GODAS中的同化结果分析

分析了从GTS(全球无线通讯系统)获得的2002-2007年海洋温盐观测资料在国家气候中心第2代全球海洋资料同化系统(BCC_GODAS 2.0)中的同化结果。与SODA(简易海洋同化数据)资料的比较表明:GTS中的海洋温盐资料同化对模式温盐场的改进之处主要表现在混合层暖区的范围和中心强度、温跃层中温度槽脊的深度、温跃层附近的温度梯度以及盐度高、低值区的范围和中心强度等方面,同化后全球温盐场的均方根误差得到一定程度的降低。挑选位于不同海区的单点温盐廓线与ARGO(地转海洋学实时观测阵)观测作了进一步比较,结果表明:大多数情况下,同化后温盐廓线的均方根误差得到明显降低,模拟的温盐垂向分布特征也更为准确。与TAO(热带大气海洋观测网)资料的比较也同样表明:同化后的温盐场特征会得到一定程度改善。     

1977-2008年北印度洋热带气旋统计特征分析

采用美国联合台风警报中心（JTWC）提供的北印度洋1977-2008年热带气旋资料、NOAA提供的1982-2008年高分辨率合成资料和NCEP提供的1982-2008年全球再分析资料,对北印度洋上167个热带气旋个例进行了统计分析,结果表明：1）北印度洋热带气旋通常发生在阿拉伯海东部和孟加拉湾中部,阿拉伯海上活动的热...     

A study of convective systems, water vapor and top of the atmosphere cloud radiative forcing over the Indian Ocean using INSAT-1B and ERBE data

Summary The distribution of cloud radiative forcing (CRF) at the top of the atmosphere over the Indian Ocean is investigated using satellite observations. Two key regions are considered: The eastern Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal which experience maximum upper-level cloudiness in winter and summer respectively. It is found that longwave CRF in the Bay of Bengal during summer is similar to that over the eastern Indian Ocean during winter. On the other hand shortwave CRF magnitude is larger in the Bay of Bengal. These differences explain the net CRF difference between the two regions. The stronger shortwave forcing seems to be related to the Upper-Level Cloudiness being larger over the Bay than over the eastern Indian Ocean. The reasons for the longwave CRF similarities are analysed in more details. Using the results from a convective system classification method, it is first shown that the longwave radiative properties of the individual systems do not vary much from one region to another. The distribution of the different kind of systems, a proxy for the vertical cloudiness structure, does not either indicate strong difference between the regions. It is then proposed that the substantial precipitable water vapour amount observed over the Bay of Bengal damps the effects of the upper-level cloudiness on radiation compared to the relatively dryer eastern Indian Ocean area; yielding to similar LW CRF in both region despite more Upper-Level Cloudiness over the Bay of Bengal. These observations are supported by idealised radiative transfer computations. The distribution of cloudiness and radiative forcing is then analysed over the whole tropical Indian Ocean for each season. July is characterized by a low longwave CRF regime (relative to January) over the most convectively active part of the Ocean. The non linear damping effect of water vapor on longwave CRF is also shown to contribute to this regime. Overall, this study reaffirms the need for simultaneous documentation of the cloud systems properties together with their moist environment in order to understand the overall net radiative signature of tropical convection at the top of the atmosphere (TOA).     

南海夏季风爆发与热带太平洋两类海温型关系的年代际差异

南海夏季风爆发日期在1993/1994年出现年代际偏早的转变,利用海温和再分析资料的研究证实西北太平洋增暖和两类海温型的年代际差异可能是导致此种变化的重要成因。进一步的研究揭示出在南海夏季风爆发出现年代际变化的背景下,南海夏季风爆发日期与太平洋海温的关系也出现明显的变化:1993/1994年之前的第一年代东太平洋(EP)型海温异常起主导作用,而1993/1994年之后的第二年代两类海温型均影响了季风爆发,但以中太平洋(CP)型海温异常为主。第一年代,东太平洋型增温(EPW)通过抑制西北太平洋-孟加拉湾的对流活动,在菲律宾海、孟加拉湾西部激发出两个距平反气旋,使越赤道气流建立偏晚、孟加拉湾低槽填塞、西北太平洋副热带高压增强,进而导致南海夏季风爆发偏晚,且其影响可从4月维持到5月;而中太平洋型增温(CPW)对季风爆发前期的流场无显著影响。第二年代,CPW通过抑制菲律宾-孟加拉湾东部的对流活动,在菲律宾-孟加拉湾激发出一个距平反气旋,使孟加拉湾低槽填塞、南海地区副高增强,进而阻碍季风爆发,且显著影响仅出现在4月;EPW对4月大气环流场的影响与第一年代较为接近,在菲律宾-孟加拉湾一带产生的风场、对流场异常稍弱于CPW,但其影响无法持续到5月。     

A study of mean boundary-layer structures over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal during active and break monsoon periods

Observations from research ships which took part in the Indo-Soviet Monsoon Experiment of 1977 (MONSOON 77) and the International Monsoon Experiments (MONEX 79) over the central Arabian Sea and the north central Bay of Bengal were analyzed to study the mean wind and temperature structure of the monsoon boundary layer during active and break conditions. Mean profiles of wind speed and direction along with virtual potential temperature obtained by averaging data from several research ships during 1977 and 1979 indicate that onset conditions were associated with substantial increases in wind speed over the Arabian Sea and a shift to strong southwest flow. Monsoon onset was also characterized by near-neutral to slightly unstable temperature profiles in the lowest kilometer. Break conditions in 1977 in which the monsoon trough moved northward and substantial (5 mb) pressure rises were noted over the Arabian Sea show wind speeds typically decreasing from approximately 18 m s^–1 during active conditions to roughly 8 m s ^–1. Temperature profiles during break conditions are similar to those observed in pre-monsoon conditions in that the boundary layer is observed to be generally much more stable up to 900 mb. Above 900 mb, profiles of virtual potential temperature show little variation.Analysis of latent and sensible heat fluxes during June 1977 calculated by the bulk aerodynamic method indicates values of latent heat flux during active conditions to be roughly two to three times larger than those during break conditions. Sensible heat flux shows an increase from approximately 20 to 80 W m ^–1 during the onset of the monsoon. Surface fluxes of water vapor indicate the importance of water vapor transport over the ship observation region in the central Arabian Sea during active conditions. Onset of the monsoon over the Arabian Sea is accompanied by an increase in the surface moisture flux by a factor of about two. Time histories of precipitable water show decreases of approximately 15% from active to break periods.     

有无El Ni?o情况下印度洋偶极子演变特征及机理研究

基于NCEP、SODA等再分析资料,采用合成分析和2.5层简化海洋模型数值模拟等方法,分析了El Ni?o和正印度洋偶极子(IOD)事件不同配置情形下印度洋海温异常的演变特征,并重点探讨了联合IOD和独立IOD事件中,关键海区海温异常的发展演变及其可能机制。对于联合IOD事件,初期马里沿岸的增暖可能对其发生起主要的激发作用;而对于独立IOD事件的发生,则可能是赤道东南印度洋的降温起主导作用。不同类型IOD事件中,热带印度洋海表温度异常(SSTA)和海面高度异常(SSHA)的演变特征有明显差别,孟加拉湾上空降水异常所起的作用也不一样,印度洋不同海区混合层温度异常的演变机制也有显著不同。基于2.5层简化海洋模式结果的分析表明,各个海区的热力、动力过程在不同IOD事件有着不同的作用。例如在索马里沿岸海区:对于联合IOD事件,西印度洋赤道东风异常和索马里沿岸东北风异常,有利于该海区出现纬向平流热输送和海表热通量正异常,从而增暖。而对于独立IOD事件,阿拉伯海上空的强西南风异常,加强了索马里沿岸底层冷水的上翻和海表的热通量损失,导致前期纬向平流和夹卷混合的负异常以及后期海表热通量的负异常,使得该海区变冷。      

Role of Western Pacific Oceanic Variability in the Onset of the Bay of Bengal Summer Monsoon

The influence of the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean heat content on the onset of the Bay of Bengal summer monsoon(BOBSM) onset was investigated using atmospheric data from the NCEP and ocean subsurface temperature data from the Japan Metorology Agency(JMA).Results showed that the onset time of the BOBSM is highly related to the tropical Pacific upper ocean heat content(HC),especially in the key region of the western Pacific warm pool(WPWP),during the preceding winter and spring.When the HC anomalies in the WPWP are positive(negative),the onset of the BOBSM is usually early(late).Accompanied by the variation of the convection activity over the WPWP,mainly induced by the underlying ocean temperature anomalies,the Walker circulation becomes stronger or weaker.This enhances or weakens the westerly over the tropical Indian Ocean flowing into the BOB in the boreal spring,which is essential to BOBSM onset.The possible mechanism of influence of cyclonic/anti-cyclonic circulation over the northwestern tropical Pacific on BOBSM onset is also discussed.     

Indian Ocean sea surface salinity variations in a coupled model

The variability of the sea surface salinity (SSS) in the Indian Ocean is studied using a 100-year control simulation of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM 2.0). The monsoon-driven seasonal SSS pattern in the Indian Ocean, marked by low salinity in the east and high salinity in the west, is captured by the model. The model overestimates runoff into the Bay of Bengal due to higher rainfall over the Himalayan–Tibetan regions which drain into the Bay of Bengal through Ganga–Brahmaputra rivers. The outflow of low-salinity water from the Bay of Bengal is too strong in the model. Consequently, the model Indian Ocean SSS is about 1 less than that seen in the climatology. The seasonal Indian Ocean salt balance obtained from the model is consistent with the analysis from climatological data sets. During summer, the large freshwater input into the Bay of Bengal and its redistribution decide the spatial pattern of salinity tendency. During winter, horizontal advection is the dominant contributor to the tendency term. The interannual variability of the SSS in the Indian Ocean is about five times larger than that in coupled model simulations of the North Atlantic Ocean. Regions of large interannual standard deviations are located near river mouths in the Bay of Bengal and in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Both freshwater input into the ocean and advection of this anomalous flux are responsible for the generation of these anomalies. The model simulates 20 significant Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and during IOD years large salinity anomalies appear in the equatorial Indian Ocean. The anomalies exist as two zonal bands: negative salinity anomalies to the north of the equator and positive to the south. The SSS anomalies for the years in which IOD is not present and for ENSO years are much weaker than during IOD years. Significant interannual SSS anomalies appear in the Indian Ocean only during IOD years.     

Changes in the frequency of tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean

Summary  Changes in the frequency of tropical cyclones developing over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal have been studied utilizing 122 year (1877–1998) data of tropical cyclone frequency. There have been significant increasing trends in the cyclone frequency over the Bay of Bengal during November and May which are main cyclone months. During transitional monsoon months; June and September however, the frequency has decreased. The results have been presented for five months, i.e., May-November which are relevant as far as tropical cyclone frequency over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal are concerned. The tropical cyclone frequency in the Arabian Sea has not shown any significant trend, probably due to small normal frequency. The frequency time series has been subjected to the spectral analysis to obtain the significant periods. The cyclone frequency over the Bay of Bengal during May has shown a 29 year cycle. A significant 44 year cycle has been found during November. Over the Arabian Sea significant cycles of 13 and 10 years have been observed during May-June and November, respectively. The tropical cyclone frequency in the North Indian Ocean has a prominent El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) scale cycle (2–5 years) during all above five months. The annual cyclone frequency exhibits 29 year and ENSO scale (2–4 years) oscillations. There is a reduction in tropical cyclone activity over the Bay of Bengal in severe cyclone months May and November during warm phases of ENSO. Examination of the frequencies of severe cyclones with maximum sustained winds ≥ 48 knots has revealed that these cyclones have become more frequent in the North Indian Ocean during intense cyclone period of the year. The rate of intensification of tropical disturbances to severe cyclone stage has registered an upward trend. Received June 7, 1999/Revised March 20, 2000     

Seasonal variability of air-sea fluxes in two contrasting basins of the North Indian Ocean

Latent Heat Flux (LHF) and Sensible Heat Flux (SHF) are the two important parameters in air-sea interactions and hence have significant implications for any coupled ocean-atmospheric model. These two fluxes are conventionally computed from met-ocean parameters using bulk aerodynamic formulations; or the Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment (COARE) bulk flux algorithms. Here COARE 3.5 algorithm is used to estimate the heat flux from two Ocean Moored Buoy Network for northern Indian Ocean (OMNI) buoy met-ocean observations in Arabian Sea (AS) and the Bay of Bengal (BoB). The AS and BoB are two ocean basins which are situated in same latitudinal range, but experience drastically differing in their met-ocean conditions, especially during the monsoon seasons. In this study, we have computed and compared the LHF and SHF at two different buoy locations in the AS and BoB and analysed their variability during three different seasons from November 2012 to September 2013. Additionally, 20 years (1998–2017) of Objectively Analysed (OA) Flux data sets collocated with the OMNI buoy locations were also utilised to the analyse the long period seasonal variabilities. The flux terms show strong seasonal variability with several peaks during the monsoon seasons in both the ocean basins. LHF varies directly with wind speed (WS) and inversely with relative humidity (RH). The correlation of LHF with WS is greater than 0.7 and RH is nearly -0.6 with few exceptions during pre-monsoon season in the AS and southwest monsoon in the BoB. However, SHF is less correlated with WS (∼0.3 to 0.5). The difference of sea surface temperature and air temperature (denoted as SST-AT) plays a significant role in determining SHF with a correlation greater than 0.6 in both the basins.