Lyapunov exponent and dimension of the strange attractor of elastic frictional system

ＬｙａｐｕｎｏｖｅｘｐｏｎｅｎｔａｎｄｄｉｍｅｎｓｉｏｎｏｆｔｈｅｓｔｒａｎｅａｔｔｒａｃｔｏｒｏｆｅｌａｓｔｉｃｆｒｉｃｔｉｏｎａｌｓｙｓｔｅｍＺｈｉ－ＲｅｎＮＩＵ（牛志仁）ａｎｄＤａｎｇ－ＭｉｎＣＨＥＮ（陈党民）（ＳｅｉｓｍｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌＢｕｒ...     

On some problems of seismic crustal phase

ＯｎｓｏｍｅｐｒｏｂｌｅｍｓｏｆｓｅｉｓｍｉｃｃｒｕｓｔａｌｐｈａｓｅＨｕａｎ－ＣｈｅｎｇＧＥ（葛焕称）（ＳｅｉｓｍｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌＢｕｒｅａｕｏｆＪｉａｎｇｓｕＰｒｏｖｉｎｃｅ,Ｎａｎｊｉｎｇ２１００１４,Ｃｈｉｎａ）Ａｂｓｔｒａｃｔ：Ｉｎｔｈｉｓ...     

An algorithm for the optimum distribution of a regional seismic network — II. An analysis of the accuracy of location of local earthquakes depending on the number of seismic stations

Summary Seven optimal networks consisting of 4 to 10 stations are compared for a given region, where velocity-depth profiles and the distribution of seismic intensity are known. Assuming that the standard error of arrival time is _t =0.05 s and the standard errors of the parameters of velocity-depth profiles are equal to 5% of their values, the average standard errors of the origin time and focus coordinates are estimated. The application of optimum methods to the planning of seismic networks in the Lublin Coal Basin is presented, and maps of standard errors of origin time , depth and epicenter ( _xy ) for the case of an optimum network of 6 seismic stations are given.     

A model for the simulation of turbulent and eddy diffusion processes at heights of 0–65 km

A generalized turbulent diffusion model has been developed which evaluates the time rate of growth of a simulated cloud of particles released into a turbulent (i.e. diffusive) atmosphere. The general model, in the form of second-order differential equations, computes the three-dimensional size of the cloud as a function of time. Parameters which influence the cloud growth, and which are accounted for in the model equations, are: (1) length scales and velocity magnitudes of the diffusive field, (2) rate of viscous dissipation , (3) vertical stability as characterized by the relative adiabatic lapse rate (1/T)(g/C _p +T/z), and (4) vertical shear in the mean horizontal winds , and , for a given height and of spatial extent equal to that of the diffusing cloud. Sample results for near ground level and for upper stratospheric heights are given. For the atmospheric boundary layer case, the diffusive field is microscale turbulence. In the upper stratospheric case it is considered to be a field of highly interactive and dispersive gravity waves.     

Recherches complémentaires sur le bases du calculateur météorologique «Temp»

Résumé La formule de base, traduisant une propriété analytique d'une classe très générale de fonctions, est un corollaire du théorème fondamental démontré dans un mémoire précédent, d'après lequel, étant donnés une fonction continue,p(, ,t) des points (, ) d'une surface régulière fermée et du temps et le champ d'un vecteur vitesse de transfert ou d'advection tangent à et ayant des lignes de flux fermées et régulières, il existe un opérateur spatial, linéaire, non singulierA tel que la fonctionA(p+Const.) soit purement advective par rapport a (sans creusement ni comblement). Ce théorème peut être exprimé par l'équation , où est un opérateur spatial, linéaire et non singulier, fonction deA.La détermination de peut être faite, soit en comparant deux formes différentes de la solution générale de l'équation en , soit en utilisant un raisonnement a priori très simple. On arrive ainsi au résultat pour un certain scalaireu(, ).Dans le cas oùp(, ,t) est la perturbation de la pression sur la surface du géoïde l'équation résulte aussi, comme nous l'avons montré dans le mémoire précédent, de notre théorie hydrodynamique des perturbations. On montre ici que la même équation peut encore être déduite de l'équation de continuité associée à la condition d'équilibre quasi statique selon la verticale.Comme applications de la formule de base (solution générale de l'équation enM), on étudie les problèmes suivants: 1^o creusement et comblement en général; 2^o creusement et comblement des centres et des cols; 3^o mouvement des centres et des cols; 4^o instabilité d'un champ moyen; 5^o propriétés spatiales des champsp(, ,t) et des vecteurs d'advection analytiques.Après une discussion des erreurs de la prévision d'un champp(, ,t) par la formule de base, du fait des erreurs des observations et du fonctionnement du calculateur, on examine quelques particularités du transfert ou advection d'un champf ₀(, ) par le vecteur . Enfin, le dernier chapitre du mémoire donne des éclaircissements complémentaires sur la structure du calculateur électronique «Temp» (qui effectue automatiquement les opérations mathématiques de la formule de base) et expose l'état actuel de sa construction.

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Summary The basic formula, expressing an analytical property of a very general class of functions, is a corollary of the fundamental theorem, proved in a previous paper, according to which, given a functionp(, ,t) of the points (, ) of a closed regular surface and of the time, and a transfer or advection velocity vector tangent to and having regular closed streamlines, there is a spatial, linear, non singular operatorA such thatA(p+const.) is a purely advective function in respect to (no deepening). This theorem can be expressed by the equation where is a spatial, linear, non singular operator depending onA.The determination of can be attained, either by the comparison of two different forms of the general solution of the -equation, or by a simple a priori reasonning. The conclusion is thus reached that for a certain scalaru(, ).Whenp(, ,t) is the pressure perturbation at sea level, it was shown, in the preceding paper, that the equation can also be derived from our hydrodynamical perturbation theory. We now show that for this particular case, the same equation is also a consequence of the equation of continuity together with the condition of quasi statical vertical equilibrium.The following problems are then analysed by means of the basic formula: 1^o deepening and filling in general; 2^o deepening and filling of the centres and cols; 3^o motion of the centres and cols; 4^o instability of a mean field; 5^o spatial properties of the analytical fields and advection vectors .The errors in the forecast of a field,p(, ,t) by means of the basic formula, due to the observational and computational errors, are discussed, and some peculiarities of the transfer or advection of a fieldf ₀(, ) by are examined. Finally, complementary points are disclosed on the structure of the electronic computer «Temp» which performs automatically the mathematical operations of the basic formula, and a brief report is given of the present state of its construction.

     

Relations entre le creusement et le comblement des perturbations et leur déplacement

Résumé On commence par définir le creusement et le comblement d'une fonctionp(, t) du tempst et des points (, ) d'une surface régulière fermée en se donnant, sur cette surface, un vecteur vitesse d'advection ou de transfert tangent à . Le creusement (ou le comblement) est la variation dep sur les particules fictives se déplaçant constamment et partout à la vitesse , A chaque vecteur et pour un mêmep(, ,t) correspond naturellement une fonction creusementC (, ,t) admissible a priori; mais une condition analytique très générale (l'intégrale du creusement sur toute la surface fermée du champ est nulle à chaque instant), à laquelle satisfont les fonctions de perturbation sur les surfaces géopotentielles, permet de restreindre beaucoup la généralité des vecteurs d'advection admissibles a priori et conduit à des vecteurs de la forme: , oùT est un scalaire régulier, () une fonction régulière de la latitude , le vecteur unitaire des verticales ascendantes etR/2 une constante. Ces vecteurs sont donc une généralisation naturelle des vitesses géostrophiques attachées à tout scalaire régulier. Dans le cas oùp(, ,t) est la perturbation de la pression sur la surface du géoïde, le vecteur d'advection par rapport auquel on doit définir le creusement est précisément une vitesse géostrophique: on a alors ()=sin etT un certain champ bien défini de température moyenne.On déduit ensuite une formule générale de géométrie et de cinématique différentielles reliant la vitesse de déplacement d'un centre ou d'un col d'un champp(, ,t) à son champ de creusementC (, ,t) et au vecteur d'advection correspondant. Cette formule peut être transformée et prend la forme d'une relation générale entre le creusement (ou le comblement) d'un centre ou d'un col et la vitesse de son déplacement, sans que le vecteur d'advection intervienne explicitement. On analyse alors les conséquences de ces formules dans les cas suivants: 1^o) perturbations circulaires dans le voisinage du centre; 2^o) perturbations ayant, dans le voisinage du centre, un axe de symétrie normal ou tangent à la vitesse du centre; 3^o) évolution normale des cyclones tropicaux.Finalement, on examine les relations qui existent entre le creusement ou le comblement d'un champ, le vecteur d'advection et la configuration des iso-lignes du champ dans le voisinage d'un centre.Ces considérations permettent d'expliquer plusieurs propriétés bien connues du comportement des perturbations dans différentes régions.

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Summary The deepening and filling (development) of a functionp(, ,t) of the timet and the points (, ) of a regular closed surface is first of all defined, in respect to a given advection or transfer velocity field tangent to , as the variation ofp on any fictitious particle moving constantly and everywhere with the velocity . For a givenp(, ,t) and to any there corresponds a well defined development fieldC (, ,t). All theseC fields are a priori admissible, but a very general analytical condition of the perturbation fields in synoptic meteorology (the integral of the development fieldC (, ,t) on any geopotential surface vanishes at any moment), leads to an important restriction to advection vectors of the form: , whereT is any regular scalar, () any regular function of latitude, the unit vector of the ascending verticals andR/2 a constant. These vectors are a natural generalisation of the geostrophic velocities attached to any regular scalar. Whenp(, ,t) is the pressure perturbation at sea level, its development must be defined in respect to a geostrophic advection vector belonging to the above defined class of vectors with ()=sin andT a well defined mean temperature field.A general formula of the differential geometry and kinematics ofp(, ,t) is then derived, giving the velocity of any centre and col of ap(, ,t) as a function of the advection vector and the corresponding development fieldC (, ,t). This formula can be transformed and takes the form of a general relation between the deepening (and filling) of a centre (or a col) of ap(, ,t) and its displament velocity, the advection vector appearing no more explicitly. A detailed analysis of the consequences of these formulae is then given for the following cases: 1^o) circular perturbations in the vicinity of a centre; 2^o) perturbations having, in the vicinity of a centre, an axis of symmetry normal or tangent to the velocity of the centre; 3^o) normal evolution of the tropical cyclones.Finally, the relations between the developmentC (, ,t) of a fieldp(, ,t), the advection velocity vector and the configuration of the iso-lines in the vicinity of a centre are analysed.These theoretical results give a rational explanation of several well known properties of the behaviour of the perturbations in different geographical regions.

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Communication à la 2ème Assemblée de la «Società Italiana di Geofisica e Meteorologia» (Gênes, 23–25 Avril 1954).     

Sull'approssimazione numerica di una variabile casuale normale,con applicaztone agli errori d'osservazione

Riassunto Data una variabile casuale X che segue la legge normale di probabilitl con valor medio a ed error medio y 1'A. considera un'altra variabile casuale che prende il valore intero r quando r–1/2

Summary Given a random variable X following the normal probability law, with expectation a and standard error p, the author considers another random variable , that takes the entire value r when r–1/2     

Attenuation of P,S, and coda waves in Koyna region,India

The attenuation properties of the crust in the Koyna region of the Indian shield have been investigated using 164 seismograms from 37 local earthquakes that occurred in the region. The extended coda normalization method has been used to estimate the quality factors for P waves and S waves , and the single back-scattering model has been used to determine the quality factor for coda waves (Q _c). The earthquakes used in the present study have the focal depth in the range of 1–9 km, and the epicentral distance vary from 11 to 55 km. The values of and Q _c show a dependence on frequency in the Koyna region. The average frequency dependent relationships (Q = Q ₀ f ⁿ) estimated for the region are , and . The ratio is found to be greater than one for the frequency range considered here (1.5–18 Hz). This ratio, along with the frequency dependence of quality factors, indicates that scattering is an important factor contributing to the attenuation of body waves in the region. A comparison of Q _c and in the present study shows that for frequencies below 4 Hz and for the frequencies greater than 4 Hz. This may be due to the multiple scattering effect of the medium. The outcome of this study is expected to be useful for the estimation of source parameters and near-source simulation of earthquake ground motion, which in turn are required in the seismic hazard assessment of a region.     

Empirische Untersuchung zur Frage der Beziehung zwischen durchschnittlicher und kennzeichnender Wellenperiode im Seegang

Zusammenfassung Als Zusammenhang zwischen der kennzeichnenden Wellenperiode und der durchschnittlichen Periode im Seegang wird die Formel angesetzt. Mit Hilfe empirischer Unterlagen wird nachgewiesen, daßc eine Funktion des von D. E. Cartwright und M. S. Longuet-Higgins [1956] eingeführten Spektralparameters ist. Es wird eine vorläufige quantitative Beziehung zwischenc und abgeleitet.

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Empirical investigations of the relation between the mean and the significant wave period in the sea

Summary It is supposed that the formula represents the relation between the significant wave period and the mean period in the sea. With the aid of empirical data it is demonstrated thatc is a function of the spectral parameter introduced by D. E. Cartwright and M. S. Longuet-Higgins [1956]. A preliminary quantitative relation betweenc and is derived.

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Etudes empiriques de la relation entre la période moyenne et la période significative des vagues dans la houle

Résumé On suppose que la formule représente la relation entre la période significative des vagues et la période moyenne dans la houle. A l'aide des données empiriques on montre quec est une fonction du paramètre spectral , introduit par D. E. Cartwright et M. S. Longuet-Higgins [1956]. Une relation quantitative préliminaire entrec et est dérivée.

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Background aspects of lake restoration: water balance,heavy metal content,phosphorus homeostasis

Perturbations of the lake water balance, inputs of heavy metals to lakes, and intensifying fertilization of lakes through input and accumulation of phosphorus—these three classes of phenomena are among the more important background processes in lake restoration. Lake restoration consists of a series of measures animed at producing a homeostatic response of a lake system to external perturbations. The success of its implementation is affected by the morphometric and edaphic parameters of different types of lakes. The relationship between the volume (V) and mean-depth of fresh-water lakes indicates a trend of . Glacial lakes occuring on or near crystalline shields have relatively shallow depths, whereas volcanic lakes, rift valley and deep valley lakes have relatively greater depths for the same volume. For saline lakes (21 lakes, V>1 km³) that undergo cycles of expansion and shrinkage, the V to relationship is closer to power 1. Water residence times (τ) of small and big fresh-water lakes show a trend of τ approximately linear in or τ∝V^0.3. Volcanic lakes and Maare have longer residence times in comparison to other lakes of similar volumes. For the major inorganic chemical species and heavy metals, the regulatory upper-limit concentrations in drinking water in the USA and EEC are from several times to more than 100 times higher than their concentrations in a global mean river water. Only three elements (Fe, P, and Al) occur in river water at concentrations approaching such upper-limit recommendations. Rates of accumulation of phosphorus in lake water and sediments, computed as the difference between input and ouflow removal rates for 23 fresh-water lakes, are generally lower for lakes of longer water residence time. The rate of accumulation is a measure of homeostatic response of the lake system to input load: it is equivalent to the rate of all the removal processes needed to maintain phosphorus concentration in lake water at a steady state.     

Improved method to determine the molar volume and compositions of the NaCl-H<Subscript>2</Subscript>O-CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> system inclusion

On the basis of Parry’s method (1986), an improved method was established to determine the molar volume (Vm) and compositions (X) of the NaCl-H2O-CO2 (NHC) system inclusion. To use this method, the determination of Vm-X only requires three microthermometric data of a NHC inclusion: partial homog-enization temperature (Th ,CO2), salinity (S) and total homogenization temperature (Th). Theoretically, four associated equations are needed containing four unknown parameters: X CO2, XNaCl, Vm and F (volume fraction of CO2 phase in total inclusion when occurring partial homogenization). When they are released, the Vm-X are determined. The former three equations, only correlated with Th ,CO2, S and F, have simplified expressions:XCO2=f1(Th,CO2,S,F),XNaCl=f2(Th,CO2,S,F),Vm=f3(Th,CO2,S,F). The last one is the thermodynamic relationship of X CO2, XNaCl, Vm and Th:f4(XCO2,XNaCl,Vm,Th)=0.Since the above four associated equations are complicated, it is necessary to adopt iterative technique to release them. The technique can be described by:(i) Freely input a F value (0≤F≤1),with Th ,CO2 and S, into the former three equations. As a result,X CO 2,XNaCl and the molar volume value recorded as Vm1 are derived. (ii) Input the X CO2 and XNaCl gotten in the step above into the last equation, and another molar volume value recorded as Vm2 is determined. (iii) If Vm1 is unequal to Vm2, the calculation will be restarted from “(i)”. The iteration is completed until Vm1 is equal to Vm2, which means that the four associated equations are released. Compared to Parry’s (1986) solution method, the improved method is more convenient to use, as well as more accurate to determine X CO 2. It is available for a NHC inlusion whose partial homogenization temperature is higher than clatherate melting temperature and there are no solid salt crystals in the inclusion at parital homogenization.     

Ueber Herde elastischer Wellen in isotropen,homogenen Medien

Zusammenfassung 1) Es werden Multipollösungen der skalaren Wellengleichung ² f/t ² – c² div gradf=0 betrachtet. Einerseits kann man solche Lösungen direkt durch Kugelfunktionenn-ter Ordnung ausdrücken, anderseits aus der Einpollösungf=1/p F(t–p/c) durch Differentiation nachn Richtungen erhalten. Es wird der Zusammenhang zwischen den Ergebnissen der beiden Verfahren gezeigt. — 2) Für die Energiedichte und den Energiefluss durch Kugelflächen bei kleinen elastischen Verschiebungen werden Ausdrücke in Kugelkoordinaten angegeben. — 3) Für die Wellengleichung grad div –b ² rot rot werden rotationsfreie Multipollösungen angegeben und Ausdrücke für Energiedichte und Energiefluss hergeleitet. — 4) Das gleiche wird für divergenzfreie Multipollösungen durchgeführt. — 5) Es werden Multipole betrachtet, die weder rotationsfrei noch divergenzfrei sind. Als Spezialfälle werden Multipole mit zeitlich begrenzter und solche mit periodischer Erregung gezeigt, ferner Lösungen der Wellengleichung, die sowohl rotationsfrei wie divergenzfrei sind. — 6) Es wird gezeigt, wie man die elastischen Wellen, die im Sinne vonStokes von einem Herdgebiet endlicher Ausdehnung ausgehen, näherungsweise durch elastische Multipole darstellen kann. — 7) Es wird angedeutet, wie man durch Messung von Komponenten von oder u.s.w. in Punkten im Innern des Mediums die Erregung und Energie von elastischen Multipolen bestimmen kann. Ferner wird auf den Fall hingewiesen, wo ein rotationsfreier Einpol sich im Innern eines Halbraumes befindet und die Messungen an seiner Oberfläche ausgeführt werden.

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Summary (On foci of elastic waves in isotropic homogeneous media) — 1) Multiplets as solutions of the scalar wave equation ² f/t ² – c² div gradf=0 are considered. Such solutions can be obtained either directly by aid of spherical harmonics of ordern, or by differentiating the single polef=1/p F(t–p/c) with respect ton directions. The relations between the results of those two procedures are shown. — 2) In the case of small elastic displacements , the density of energy and the flow of energy through spherical surfaces are expressed by spherical coordinates. — 3) Multiplets which satisfy the equation of motion =a ² grad div b ² curl curl and the equation curl = 0 are given, and expressions for the density and flow of energy are found. — 4) The same is done with multiplets satisfying the equation of motion and the equation div = 0. — 5) General multiplets which satisfy the equation of motion are treated. As special cases, multiplets with excitation of finite length and multiplets with periodic excitation are considered, furthermore solutions of the equation of motion and of the equations curl = 0 and div = 0 are given. — 6) It is shown how elastic waves whose origin is a region of finite extension in the sense given byStokes, can be approximated by elastic multiplets. — 7) Some indications are given on the problem of how to find the functions of excitation and the energy of an elastic multiplet by measuring components of or etc., at points in the interior of the medium. The same problem is considered in the case of the single elastic pole. = grad 1/p F (t–p/a), if the measurements are made at the surface of an elastic half space.

     

Estimation of coda wave attenuation in East Central Iran

The attenuation of coda waves, Q _c , has been estimated in Zarand, Jiroft, and Bam regions of east central Iran using a single back-scattering model of S-coda envelopes. For this purpose, the recordings of 97 earthquakes by three seismic networks and a local strong ground motion network have been used. In this research, the frequency-dependent Q _c values are estimated at central frequencies of 1.5, 3, 6, 8, 12, 16, and 24 Hz using different lapse time windows from 20 to 60 s. The frequency-dependent relationships obtained are for Zarand, for Jiroft, and for Bam region. From the strong ground motion data, we obtain the relation . The Q _c frequency-dependent relationship for the entire region of east central Iran from all data (both seismograms and accelerograms) is . The average Q _c values estimated and their frequency dependent relationships correlate well with a highly heterogeneous and highly tectonically active region. Results also show that the attenuation is higher in Bam region compared to Zarand and Jiroft regions.     

Types of focal mechanism solutions and parameter consistency of the sub-blocks in Sichuan and Yunnan Provinces

Based on P- and S-wave amplitudes and some clear initial P-wave motion data, we calculated focal mechanism solutions of 928 M≥2.5 earthquakes （1994-2005） in four sub-blocks of Sichuan and Yunnan Provinces, namely Sichuan-Qinghai, Yajiang, Central Sichuan and Central Yunnan blocks. Combining these calculation results with those of the focal mechanism solutions of moderately strong earthquakes, we analyzed the stress field characteristics and dislocation types of seismogenic faults that are distributed in the four sub-blocks. The orientation of principal compressive stress for each block is： EW in Sichuan-Qinghai, ESE or SE in Yajiang, Central Sichuan and Central Yunnan blocks. Based on a great deal of focal mechanism data, we designed a program and calculated the directions of the principal stress tensors, σ1, σ2 and σ3, for the four blocks. Meanwhile, we estimated the difference （also referred to as consistency parameter θ^- ） between the force axis direction of focal mechanism solution and the direction of the mean stress tensor of each block. Then we further analyzed the variation of θ^- versus time and the dislocation types of seismogenic faults. Through determination of focal mechanism solutions for each block, we present information on the variation in θ^- value and dislocation types of seismogenic faults.     

“Pandora box” — Matrix in the calculus of observations

Summary If the condition R(A)=k(n), whereA is the design matrix of the type n × k and k the number of parameters to be determined, is not satisfied, or if the covariance matrixH is singular, it is possible to determine the adjusted value of the unbiased estimable function of the parameters f(), its dispersion D( (x)) and ² as the unbiased estimate of the value of ² by means of an arbitrary g-inversion of the matrix . The matrix , because of its remarkable properties, is called the Pandora Box matrix. The paper gives the proofs of these properties and the manner in which they can be employed in the calculus of observations.     

Propagation of surface waves on the surface of a non-homogeneous aeolotropic cylindrical shell

Summary The object of the present paper is to investigate the propagation of surface waves on a non-homogeneous aeolotropic cylindrical shell surrounded by vacuum. The elastic constantsc _ij (i, j=1,2...) and density of the material of the shell are assumed to be of the form and respectively, where _ij, ₀ are constants andk ₁,k ₂ are any integers.     

The dynamics of magma mixing in a rising magma batch

The conditions under which two magmas can become mixed within a rising magma batch are investigated by scaling analyses and fluid-dynamical experiments. The results of scaling analyses show that the fluid behaviours in a squeezed conduit are determined mainly by the dimensionless number where ₁ is the viscosity of the fluid, U is the velocity, g is the acceleration due to gravity, is the density difference between the two fluids, and R is the radius of the tube. The parameter I represents a balance between the viscous effects in the uppermost magma which prevent it from being moved off the conduit walls, and the buoyancy forces which tend to keep the interface horizontal. The experiments are carried out using fluid pairs of various density and viscosity contrasts in a squeezed vinyl tube. They show that overturning of the initial density stratification and mixing occur when I>order 10^-1; the two fluids remain stratified when I 10^-3. Transitional states are observed when 10^-3<I<10^-1. These results are nearly independent of Reynolds number and viscosity ratio in the range of and Re ₁<300. Applying these results to magmas shows that silicic to intermediate magmas overlying mafic magma will be prone to mixing in a rising magma batch. This mechanism can explain some occurrences of small-volume mixed lava flows.     

Conditional heavy-tail behavior with applications to precipitation and river flow extremes

This article deals with the right-tail behavior of a response distribution \(F_Y\) conditional on a regressor vector \({\mathbf {X}}={\mathbf {x}}\) restricted to the heavy-tailed case of Pareto-type conditional distributions \(F_Y(y|\ {\mathbf {x}})=P(Y\le y|\ {\mathbf {X}}={\mathbf {x}})\), with heaviness of the right tail characterized by the conditional extreme value index \(\gamma ({\mathbf {x}})>0\). We particularly focus on testing the hypothesis \({\mathscr {H}}_{0,tail}:\ \gamma ({\mathbf {x}})=\gamma _0\) of constant tail behavior for some \(\gamma _0>0\) and all possible \({\mathbf {x}}\). When considering \({\mathbf {x}}\) as a time index, the term trend analysis is commonly used. In the recent past several such trend analyses in extreme value data have been published, mostly focusing on time-varying modeling of location or scale parameters of the response distribution. In many such environmental studies a simple test against trend based on Kendall’s tau statistic is applied. This test is powerful when the center of the conditional distribution \(F_Y(y|{\mathbf {x}})\) changes monotonically in \({\mathbf {x}}\), for instance, in a simple location model \(\mu ({\mathbf {x}})=\mu _0+x\cdot \mu _1\), \({\mathbf {x}}=(1,x)'\), but the test is rather insensitive against monotonic tail behavior, say, \(\gamma ({\mathbf {x}})=\eta _0+x\cdot \eta _1\). This has to be considered, since for many environmental applications the main interest is on the tail rather than the center of a distribution. Our work is motivated by this problem and it is our goal to demonstrate the opportunities and the limits of detecting and estimating non-constant conditional heavy-tail behavior with regard to applications from hydrology. We present and compare four different procedures by simulations and illustrate our findings on real data from hydrology: weekly maxima of hourly precipitation from France and monthly maximal river flows from Germany.     

Zur Interpretation von seismischen Refraktionsmessungen

Zusammenfassung Unter der Voraussetzung, dass die Frontgeschwindigkeitc eine stetige und monoton wachsende Funktion von der Tiefez ist, wird dargelegt, wie man aus einer gemessenen Laufzeitkurve () die zuc inverse Funktionz=z (c) auf einfache Weise berechnen kann. Weiter wird die Eindringtiefez _m in Funktion von ermittelt und abschliessend ein Beispiel gegeben.

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Summary Based on a recorded travel-time curve (), a simple direct method is developed for calculating the functionz=z (c), under the asumption that the wave velocityc is a regularly monotone increasing function of the depthz. Finally a rumerical example is given.