The linkage between two ENSO types/modes and the interdecadal changes of ENSO around the year 2000

厄尔尼诺和南方涛动(ENSO)在2000年前后发生了明显的年代际变化。与1980-99年相比,2000年以后ENSO的振幅减弱,主周期缩短,中太平洋(CP)型ENSO的发生频率升高,且没有典型的东太平洋(EP)型ENSO出现。本文将两种类型ENSO与两个ENSO模态联系起来,发现ENSO在2000年前后的年代变化实质上是两个ENSO模态的相对活跃性发生了改变:与EP型ENSO相联系的准四年模态在2000年之后活跃性明显降低,与CP型ENSO相联系的准两年模态依然活跃,并成为热带太平洋地区的主模态。分析表明,热带太平洋地区气候平均态的改变可能是这次ENSO年代际变化的主要原因。     

The retrospective prediction of ENSO from 1881 to 2000 by a hybrid coupled model: (II) Interdecadal and decadal variations in predictability

In this study, the retrospective predictions of ENSO (El Niño and Southern Oscillation) were performed for the period from 1881 to 2000 using a hybrid coupled model, which is an ocean general circulation model coupled to a linear statistical atmospheric model, and using a newly developed initialization scheme of SST assimilation by Ensemble Kalman Filter. With the retrospective predictions of the past 120 years, some important issues of ENSO predictability (measured by correlation and RMSE skills of NINO3 sea surface temperature anomaly index) were studied including decadal/interdecadal variations in ENSO predictability and the mechanisms responsible for these variations. Emphasis was placed on investigating the relationship between ENSO predictability and various characteristics of ENSO system such as the signal strength, the irregularity of periodicity, the noise and the nonlinearity. It is found that there are significant decadal/interdecadal variations in the prediction skills of ENSO during the past 120 years. The ENSO events were more predictable during the late nineteenth and the late twentieth centuries. The decadal/interdecadal variations of prediction skills are strongly related to the strength of sea-surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) signals, especially to the strength of SSTA signals at the frequencies of 2–4 year periods. The SSTA persistence, dominated by SSTA signals at frequencies over 4-year periods, also has a positive relationship to prediction skills. The high-frequency noise, on the other hand, has a strong inverse relationship to prediction skills, suggesting that it also probably plays an important role in ENSO predictability.     

ENSO与西北太平洋强TC相关关系年代际变化研究

利用美国联合台风警报中心(Joint Typhoon Warning Center,JTWC),中国气象局(China Meteorological Administration,CMA)上海台风所,日本气象厅(Japan Meteorological Agency,JMA)的台风最佳路径资料以及美国NCAR/NCEP再分析资料等,深入研究厄尔尼诺—南方涛动(El Ni1o-Southern Oscillation,ENSO)与西北太平洋强热带气旋(Tropical Cyclone,TC),即1 min最大风速大于等于114 kn相关关系的变化。结果表明,ENSO与热带西北太平洋(Western North Pacific,WNP)强TC频数之间的相关关系存在明显年代际变化。在1960—1971年期间(前一阶段),强TC年频数与Ni1o3. 4(11月—次年1月平均)相关性较弱;而在1983—2014年期间(后一阶段)两者的相关性则为强的正相关。并且强TC的年频数、生命史以及生成位置在后一阶段El Ni1o和La Ni1a年之间的差异相比前一阶段都有明显的增大。进一步分析发现:热带太平洋海温异常(Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly,SSTA)的西移是造成后一阶段Ni1o3. 4指数与强TC年频数相关性提高的关键因素。在后一阶段的El Ni1o(La Ni1a)年,SSTA的西移使得WNP东南象限的相对湿度明显增加(减少),从而有利于(不利于) TC在此象限生成。又因为位于东南象限的TC比较容易发展成强TC,因此导致后一阶段的El Ni1o(La Ni1a)年有更多(更少)的强TC在西北太平洋的东南象限生成。     

ENSO与中国东部夏季降水异常关系的年代际变化

根据1960—2011年Had ISST资料集中的月平均海表温度资料和中国753站逐日降水资料,基于转经验正交函数分解等分析方法,发现中国夏季降水的变化具有明显的独立性特征,可以分为相对独立的11个雨区,并在此基础上讨论了11个雨区夏季降水与ENSO的相关关系及其年代际变化,发现不同雨区的夏季降水与ENSO相关关系的年代际变化特征不尽相同,据此可分为3种类型:第1类为稳定不相关型,代表区为东北地区、长江中下游地区、江南地区、闽赣地区、环琼州海峡地区;第2类为稳定相关型,代表区为河套地区、黄河中下游地区;第3类为相关关系变化型,代表区为辽吉地区、黄淮地区、淮河流域以及两广地区。而在第3类相关关系变化型中,4个雨区夏季降水与ENSO相关关系的年代际突变时间也存在差异,两广地区的突变年份在1975年左右,辽吉地区和黄淮地区的突变年份在1980年左右,淮河流域的突变年份在1985年左右。     

1998/2000年ENSO冷事件过程诊断

根据海上溢油试验结果，分析了油类入海后漂流和扩散过程。经分析认为：（1）海面油类漂流的速度和方向取决于风和表层海流的速度和方向，海面油类漂流的速度和方向基本符合U0=Uc ζW和D＝C流＋r；（2）海面油类扩散的形状与油类漂流的速度有关，油膜的扩散速度与时间可以用U扩＝at^-b来表达，油类漂流速度越大，油膜的形状就越呈长而窄，反之则呈短而宽；（3）经两起海上沉船溢油事故的实例检验，结果比较接近；（4）在1996年珠江口惠州26－1油田海底输油管线溢油漂流预测分析过程中进行尝试，收到了比较好的效果。     

Interdecadal variability of the ENSO teleconnection to the wintertime North Pacific

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strongly influences the large-scale atmospheric circulation over the extratropical North Pacific during boreal winter, which has an important impact on North American winter climate. This study analyses the interdecadal variability of the ENSO teleconnection to the wintertime extratropical North Pacific, over the period 1900–2010, using a range of observationally derived datasets and an ensemble of atmospheric model simulations. The observed teleconnection strength is found to vary substantially over the 20th century. Specifically, 31-year periods in the early-century (1912–1942), mid-century (1946–1976) and the late-century (1980–2010) are identified in the observations when the ENSO teleconnection to the North Pacific circulation are found to be particularly strong, weak and strong respectively. The ENSO teleconnection to the North Pacific in the atmospheric model ensemble is weak in the mid-century period and substantially stronger in the late-century, closely following the variability in the observed ENSO-North Pacific teleconnection. In the early-century, however, the atmospheric model also exhibits a weak teleconnection to the North Pacific, unlike in observations. In a subset of the model realisations that exhibit similar ENSO-North Pacific teleconnection as in observations during the early-century period there are large differences in extratropical circulation but not in equatorial Pacific precipitation anomalies, in contrast to the late-century period. This suggests that the high correlation in the early century period is largely due to internal extratropical variability. The important implications of these results for seasonal predictability and the assessment of seasonal forecasting systems are discussed.

     

1998/2000年ENSO冷事件过程诊断

通过对1998／2000年ENSO冷事件发展过程的诊断分析，揭示了这次事件爆发快、强度较大、结束时东太平洋海温变化突然，大气响应滞后等特点。通过与其它冷事件特征的比较，着重分析了冷事件爆发前期次表层海温及大气风场的演变特征，指出次表层冷水异常的发展和东移是本次冷事件爆发的基本条件，大气风场特征对冷事件的形成和加强起着关键作用，同时冷事件和爆发季节对事件的长度和强度有着非常重要的影响。     

Interdecadal change of interannual variability and predictability of two types of ENSO

A significant interdecadal climate shift of interannual variability and predictability of two types of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely the canonical or eastern Pacific (EP)-type and Modoki or central Pacific (CP) type, are investigated. Using the retrospective forecasts of six-state-of-the-art coupled models and their multi-model ensemble (MME) for December–January–February during the period of 1972–2005 along with corresponding observed and reanalyzed data, we examine the climate regime shift that occurred in the winter of 1988/1989 and how the shift affected interannual variability and predictability of two types of ENSO for the two periods of 1972–1988 (hereafter PRE) and 1989–2005 (hereafter POST). The result first shows substantial interdecadal changes of observed sea surface temperature (SST) in mean state and variability over the western and central Pacific attributable to the significant warming trend in the POST period. In the POST period, the SST variability increased (decreased) significantly over the western (eastern) Pacific. The MME realistically reproduces the observed interdecadal changes with 1- and 4-month forecast lead time. It is found that the CP-type ENSO was more prominent and predictable during the POST than the PRE period while there was no apparent difference in the variability and predictability of the EP-type ENSO between two periods. Note that the second empirical orthogonal function mode of the Pacific SST during the POST period represents the CP-type ENSO but that during the PRE period captures the ENSO transition phase. The MME better predicts the former than the latter. We also investigate distinctive regional impacts associated with the two types of ENSO during the two periods.     

ENSO与中国东部地区夏季降水相关性年代际变化特征

利用国家气候中心提供的中国160站1951～2000年逐月降水资料,Hadley中心提供的1951～2000年逐月全球海表层温度资料,采用线性相关分析和滑动相关分析方法,探讨了ENSO与中国东部地区夏季降水的年际关系及二者年际关系的年代际变化特征。结果表明,夏季Nino3区海温与中国东部夏季降水年际关系同期相关显著,且二者的年际关系存在明显的年代际变化,年际相关型分3个阶段：,第1阶段(1972年前)为“东西型”,第2阶段(1973～1983年)为“南北型”,第3阶段(1984年后)也为“南北型”。     

ENSO与北半球冬季大气环流异常的年代际关系

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和CPC(气候预测中心)Nino3-4区海表温度序列,研究了1950/1951-2002/2003年冬季ENSO事件与北半球大气环流的相互关系及其年代际变化.结果表明:北半球大气环流对ENSO事件的响应在1978/1979年有一个明显的跃变.跃变后,低纬中高层大气环流对ENSO事件的响应明显减弱,其中东南亚的减弱最为明显,而低层大气环流对ENSO事件的响应则有所增强;东半球中高纬大气环流异常与ENSO事件关系明显减弱;西半球中高纬大气环流与ENSO事件的关系加强.     

Interdecadal changes in the relationship between Southern China winter-spring precipitation and ENSO

Winter-spring precipitation in southern China tends to be higher (lower) than normal in El Niño (La Niña) years during 1953–1973. The relationship between the southern China winter-spring precipitation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is weakened during 1974–1994. During 1953–1973, above-normal southern China rainfall corresponds to warmer sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial central Pacific. There are two anomalous vertical circulations with ascent over the equatorial central Pacific and ascent over southern China and a common branch of descent over the western North Pacific that is accompanied by an anomalous lower-level anticyclone. During 1974–1994, above-normal southern China rainfall corresponds to warmer SST in eastern South Indian Ocean and cooler SST in western South Indian Ocean. Two anomalous vertical circulations act to link southern China rainfall and eastern South Indian Ocean SST anomalies, with ascent over eastern South Indian Ocean and southern China and a common branch of descent over the western North Pacific. Present analysis shows that South Indian Ocean SST anomalies can contribute to southern China winter-spring precipitation variability independently. The observed change in the relationship between southern China winter-spring rainfall and ENSO is likely related to the increased SST variability in eastern South Indian Ocean and the modulation of the Pacific decadal oscillation.     

Interdecadal variability of the relationship between the East Asian winter monsoon and ENSO

Summary The authors examine relationships between the East Asian winter monsoon and the ENSO, particularly on the interdecadal timescales. Based on the analyses of SLP data from 1899 to 1997, the East-Asian winter monsoon index (WMI) is defined as the zonal difference of SLP between ∼120° E and ∼160° E. It is found that 18 out of 28 strong winter monsoon years are either before the development of an El Ni?o or during the decaying La Ni?a event, 12 out of 28 weak winter monsoon are before the development of a La Ni?a or during the decaying El Ni?o event. There is a significant positive correlation coefficient value of about 0.49 between the normalized 11-yr running mean of WMI and ENSO index, however, the WMI-ENSO relationship is not consistently highly correlated. The temporal evolution of correlation between WMI and ENSO indices in both 11-yr and 21-yr moving window shows that the WMI-ENSO relationship clearly undergo low-frequency oscillation. Obviously, both observational and IPSL air-sea coupled modeling WMI index has a near-decadal peak with PDO timescales and internal peaks with ENSO timescales by applying the Multitaper method. Moreover, the cross wavelet and wavelet coherence analysis of WMI/ENSO indicate that there is a larger significant sections with an in phase behavior between WMI and ENSO at period of 20–30 yrs, suggesting that the interdecadal variation of the WMI-ENSO relationship might exist.     

Interdecadal modulation of ENSO amplitude by the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO)

The impact of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) on the ENSO amplitude was investigated through observational analyses. During the past 90 years the interdecadal variability of ENSO intensity is significantly correlated with the AMO. ENSO variability was strengthened (weakened) during a negative (positive) AMO phase. An ocean mixed layer heat budget analysis reveals that the thermocline feedback is the main process regulating AMO negative phase dependent ENSO growth characteristic. A further examination indicates that a strengthened atmospheric response to unit SST anomaly, an enhanced thermocline response to unit wind stress forcing and a strengthened subsurface temperature response to unit thermocline variation all contribute to the enhanced thermocline feedback during the negative phase of AMO. Such changes are attributed to the increase of background moisture, the weakening of mean subtropical cell (STC) and increase of upper ocean vertical temperature gradient respectively.

     

Interdecadal Modulation of AMO on the Winter North Pacific Oscillation-Following Winter ENSO Relationship

It is known that the wintertime North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) is an important extratropical forcing for the occurrence of an El Ni?o?Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event in the subsequent winter via the “seasonal footprinting mechanism” (SFM). This study reveals that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) can notably modulate the relationship between the winter NPO and the following winter ENSO. During the negative AMO phase, the winter NPO has significant impacts on the following winter ENSO via the SFM. In contrast, the influence of the winter NPO on ENSO is not robust at all during the positive AMO phase. Winter NPO-generated westerly wind anomalies over the equatorial western Pacific during the following spring are much stronger during negative than positive AMO phases. It is suggested that the AMO impacts the winter NPO-induced equatorial westerly winds over the western Pacific via modulating the precipitation climatology over the tropical central Pacific and via modulating the connection of the winter NPO with spring sea surface temperature in the tropical North Atlantic.     

ENSO与我国东部夏季雨型异常关系的年代际变化

利用1951—2002年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、CPC(气候预测中心)Nino3区海表温度序列和NOAA的ERSST资料,研究了ENSO与我国东部夏季雨型的相互关系及其年代际变化.结果表明:我国东部夏季雨型对ENSO事件的响应在1978年有一个明显的突变,在突变前,降水雨型与赤道东太平洋的海温为弱的负相关,而在突变后转为显著的正相关;滑动相关结果显示,近20a是整个研究时段中二者相关性最强的时期;东亚夏季风和ENSO的相互关系在1978年也经历了一次明显的年代际变化,由弱的正相关转为显著的负相关.这可能是引起ENSO和夏季雨型异常关系年代际变化的原因.     

ENSO与南海SST关系的年代际变化

基于NOAA重建的海面温度（sea surface temperature, SST）资料和NCEP再分析大气资料,研究了ENSO（El Niño-Southern Oscillation）与南海SST关系的年代际变化。结果表明：ENSO影响南海SST的冬、夏季“双峰”现象发生了显著的年代际变化,即冬季的“峰值”自20世纪80年代显著减弱,而夏季的“峰值”稳定持续且在20世纪70年代之后增强;冬季“峰值”的减弱可能与冬季西北太平洋反气旋的年代际变化有关,夏季“峰值”的维持和增强可能与20世纪70年代之后印度洋SST“电容器”效应的增强有关。     

Interdecadal variations of cold air activities in Northeast China during springtime

Based on the daily mean temperature data of CN05.2 from 1961 to 2012, cold events (CEs) are first divided into two categories according to their duration: strong cold events (SCEs) and weak cold events (WCEs). Then, the characteristics of CEs, SCEs, and WCEs during springtime are investigated. The results indicate that in the pre-1990s epoch, ENSO and Arctic Oscillation events in the previous winter are closely related to SCEs in the following spring. The multidecadal variations of CEs, SCEs, and WCEs are obvious. The intensity trend for SCEs is significantly negative, but it seems less apparent for WCEs. Further analysis reveals that when both SCEs and WCEs occur, a typical East Asian trough in the 850- hPa wind field, whose northwesterly wind component invades Northeast China (NEC) and causes freezing days, can be found in every decade. For the SCEs, a cold vortex, with its center located over Okhotsk and northeasterly current affecting NEC, is found as an additional feature. For the WCEs, the cold vortex is located in Karafuto and its northwesterly airflow intrudes into NEC. As for the difference between SCEs and WCEs, the northwestern flow is weaker while the northeastern counterpart is stronger during the SCEs, in all decades. In the Takaya–Nakamura flux and divergence fields, for the SCEs, a divergence center exists over NEC; and over its downstream regions, a stronger divergence center appears, not like a wave train. However, the opposite is the case for the WCEs; moreover, the wave train appears clearly during the WCEs, which means that the wave energy can propagate and dissipate more easily during WCEs.     

Interdecadal changes in the Asian winter monsoon variability and its relationship with ENSO and AO

Interdecadal changes in the Asian winter monsoon (AWM) variability are investigated using three surface air temperature datasets for the 55-year period of 1958–2012 from (1) the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis 1 (NCEP), (2) combined datasets from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-yr reanalysis and interim data (ERA), and (3) Japanese 55-year reanalysis (JRA). Particular attention has been paid to the first four empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of the AWM temperature variability that together account for 64% of the total variance and have been previously identified as predictable modes. The four modes are characterized as follows: the first mode by a southern warming over the Indo-western Pacific Ocean associated with a gradually increasing basin-wide warming trend; the second mode by northern warming with the interdecadal change after the late 1980s; the third and fourth modes by north-south triple pattern, which reveal a phase shift after the late 1970s. The three reanalyses agree well with each other when producing the first three modes, but show large discrepancy in capturing both spatial and temporal characteristics of the fourth mode. It is therefore considered that the first three leading modes are more reliable than the rest higher modes. Considerable interdecadal changes are found mainly in the first two modes. While the first mode shows gradually decreasing variance, the second mode exhibits larger interannual variance during the recent decade. In addition, after the late 1970s, the first mode has a weakening relationship with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) whereas the second mode has strengthening association with the Artic Oscillation (AO). This indicates an increasing role of AO but decreasing role of ENSO on the AWM variability. A better understanding of the interdecadal change in the dominant modes would contribute toward advancing in seasonal prediction and the predictability of the AWM variability.     

强弱南海夏季风年水汽输送路径特征分析

采用印度洋偶极子指数（dipole mode index,简称DMI）、Nino3指数和国内学者定义的5种东亚夏季风指数来比较分析印度洋偶极子（Indian Ocean dipole,简称IOD）、ENSO与东亚夏季风年际变化联系的年代际改变,讨论了这种改变的可能成因。结果表明,东亚夏季风指数分别与DMI、Ni-no3指数的年际变化的联系都呈明显的年代际改变。东亚夏季风指数除了在20世纪80年代及90年代初期与DMI联系较弱之外,其余时段均与DMI具有很好的正相关关系。当季风指数与DMI为正相关时,其与Nino3指数则呈负相关,IOD和ENSO对夏季风具有相反的影响。当季风指数与DMI呈较强的正相关时,其与ENSO的相关较弱;而在70年代末至80年代初季风指数与ENSO呈较强的相关时,其与DMI的关系亦较弱。东亚夏季风与IOD、ENSO年际变化之间的联系呈现此强彼弱的特点。1972—1982年和1983—1993年这两个阶段海温分布的显著不同,可能导致了海气相互作用过程中环流变化的周期及分布的改变,使得东亚夏季风与IOD和ENSO的关系发生年代际改变。     

近百年东亚冬季风与ENSO循环的相互关系及其年代际异常

运用相关及滑动相关的计算技术，讨论了近百年东亚冬季风与ENSO循环的相互关系及其年代际异常。研究指出，东亚冬季风与赤道东太平洋海温的年际关系具有年代际的变化特征；季风与ENSO循环的关系受到季风的QBO以及季风-海洋的年代际背景场配置关系的共同作用；当季风与海洋的背景场处于同样状态时，强冬季风有利于第二年冬季赤道东太平洋的升温，产生El Ni?o事件；当两者的背景场处于反位相状态时，强冬季风对应于第二年冬季的La Ni?a位相。