A recursive decomposition algorithm for network seismic reliability evaluation

A new probabilistic analytical approach to evaluate seismic system reliability of large lifeline systems is presented in this paper. The algorithm takes the shortest path from the source to the terminal of a node weight or edge weight network as decomposition policy, using the Boolean laws of set operation and probabilistic operation principal, a recursive decomposition process then could be constructed. For a general weight network, the modified Torrieri method (NTR/T method) is introduced to combine with the suggested algorithm. Therefore, the recursive decomposition algorithm may be applied to evaluate the seismic reliability of general lifeline systems. A series of case studies, including a practical district electric power network system and a large urban water supply system, show that the suggested algorithm supplies a useful probabilistic analysis means for the seismic reliability evaluation of large lifeline systems. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于机器学习的铁路桥墩地震损伤快速评估

在桥梁的震后抢通工作中,桥梁结构的快速损伤评估是恢复交通的关键环节。以具有代表性的铁路矩形桥墩为研究对象,通过4组拟静力试验验证有限元建模方法的合理性,并对1 000组桥墩有限元模型分别按照纵桥向和横桥向进行耐震时程分析,通过搭建BP神经网络对地震动力响应的需求结果进行拟合,构建铁路矩形桥墩震损快速评估模型,最终通过一座三跨混凝土梁桥验证该模型的适用性。研究结果表明：配筋率、配箍率、剪跨比和轴压比是影响桥墩地震损伤的四种主要因素,长宽比、混凝土和钢筋强度是影响桥墩地震损伤的三项次要因素;当发生PGA为0.32g的设计地震时,通过数值分析和神经网络模型快速评估这两种方法计算所得桥梁四个桥墩轻微损伤概率分别为96.7%、44.6%、49.1%、96.7%和95.6%、40.4%、60.9%、95.8%,中度损伤概率分别为40.1%、1.2%、1.6%、40.1%和37.4%、2.3%、6.0%、37.7%;BP神经网络算法能够有效建立构造参数与地震响应之间的联系,输出误差处于合理范围内,回归程度较好。基于BP神经网络的桥梁地震损伤评估模型具有较好的普适性,能替代部分数值仿真计算工作。     

Minimal cut-based recursive decomposition algorithm for seismic reliability evaluation of lifeline networks

In this paper, a new probabilistic analytical approach, the minimal cut-based recursive decomposition algorithm (MCRDA), is presented to evaluate the seismic reliability of large-scale lifeline systems. Based on the minimal cut searching algorithm, the approach calculates the disjoint minimal cuts one by one using the basic procedure of the recursive decomposition method. At the same time, the process obtains the disjoint minimal paths of the system. In order to improve the computation efficiency, probabilistic inequality is used to calculate a solution that satisfies the prescribed error bound. A series of case studies show that MCRDA converges rapidly when the edges of the systems have low reliabilities. Therefore, the approach can be used to evaluate large-scale lifeline systems subjected to strong seismic wave excitation.     

一个紧密结构地震台网中心核心数据处理系统

介绍一个基于UNIX类操作系统的紧密结构地震台网中心核心数据处理系统。 该系统适用于复杂结构的数字地震台网中心, 支持以比较低的成本, 可靠地完成地震台网中心的核心任务, 可以接收来自串口和网络的实时地震波形数据, 支持虚拟数字地震台网组网要求的节点数据服务功能等。 该系统的数据服务协议具有实时性高、 通讯可靠、 适应范围广等特点, 可以满足包括地震预警在内的所有实时地震数据应用的需要。 系统结构紧凑, 自动化程度高, 安全, 稳定, 系统伸缩性大, 可以满足台站数目不大于100个的数字地震台网中心的需要, 同时也可以作为大型数字地震台网中心的处理节点, 构成大型数字地震台网中心的数据处理系统。     

大型城市管网抗震可靠性分析与优化

本文提出了地震作用下供水系统的渗漏模型,发展了地震后带渗漏管网的流分析技术,结合一次二阶矩方法获得了地震后供水管网的功能可靠度。针对供燃气管网系统则提出了一类高效精确的大型网络抗震连通可靠度分析的概率解析算法———递推分解算法。以上述管网抗震可靠性分析理论为基础,分别发展了基于模拟退火算法的供水系统网络拓扑优化分析理论和基于遗传算法的供燃气网络系统拓扑优化理论。     

A disjoint algorithm for seismic reliability analysis of lifeline networks

The algorithm is based on constructing a disjoin kg t set of the minimal paths in a network system. In this paper, cubic notation was used to describe the logic function of a network in a well-balanced state, and then the sharp-product operation was used to construct the disjoint minimal path set of the network. A computer program has been developed, and when combined with decomposition technology, the reliability of a general lifeline network can be effectively and automatically calculated. Supported by: Key Project of Science and Technology from the State Plan Committee, No. 101-9914003     

Multi‐scale system reliability analysis of lifeline networks under earthquake hazards

Recent earthquake events evidenced that damage of structural components in a lifeline network may cause prolonged disruption of lifeline services, which eventually results in significant socio‐economic losses in the affected area. Despite recent advances in network reliability analysis, the complexity of the problem and various uncertainties still make it a challenging task to evaluate the post‐hazard performance and connectivity of lifeline networks efficiently and accurately. In order to overcome such challenges and take advantage of merits of multi‐scale analysis, this paper develops a multi‐scale system reliability analysis method by integrating a network decomposition approach with the matrix‐based system reliability (MSR) method. In addition to facilitating system reliability analysis of large‐size networks, the multi‐scale approach enables optimizing the level of computational effort on subsystems; identifying the relative importance of components and subsystems at multiple scales; and providing a collaborative risk management framework. The MSR method is uniformly applied for system reliability analyses at both the lower‐scale (for link failure) and the higher‐scale (for system connectivity) to obtain the probability of general system events, various conditional probabilities, component importance measures, statistical correlation between subsystem failures and parameter sensitivities. The proposed multi‐scale analysis method is demonstrated by its application to a gas distribution network in Shelby County of Tennessee. A parametric study is performed to determine the number of segments during the lower‐scale MSR analysis of each pipeline based on the strength of the spatial correlation of seismic intensity. It is shown that the spatial correlation should be considered at both scales for accurate reliability evaluation. The proposed multi‐scale analysis approach provides an effective framework of risk assessment and decision support for lifeline networks under earthquake hazards. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismic fragility and reliability of structures isolated by friction pendulum devices: seismic reliability‐based design (SRBD)

The paper deals with the seismic reliability of elastic structural systems equipped with friction pendulum isolators (friction pendulum system). The behavior of these systems is analyzed by employing a two‐degree‐of‐freedom model accounting for the superstructure flexibility, whereas the friction pendulum system device behavior is described by adopting a widespread model that considers the variation of the friction coefficient with the velocity. With reference to medium soil condition, the uncertainty in the seismic inputs is taken into account by considering a set of artificial records, obtained through Monte Carlo simulations within the power spectral density method, with different frequency contents and characteristics depending on the soil dynamic parameters and scaled to increasing intensity levels. The sliding friction coefficient at large velocity is also considered as random variable modeled through a uniform probability density function. Incremental dynamic analyses are developed in order to evaluate the probabilities exceeding different limit states related to both r.c. superstructure and isolation level defining the seismic fragility curves through an extensive parametric study carried out for different structural system properties. Finally, considering the seismic hazard curves related to a site near L'Aquila (Italy), the seismic reliability of the r.c. superstructure systems is evaluated, and seismic reliability‐based design abacuses are derived with the aim to define the radius in plan of the friction pendulum devices in function of the structural properties and reliability level expected. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

生命线网络可靠性分析的类分法

本文应用点集拓扑分类原理，提出一个计算大型复杂网络可靠度上界的类分法，该算法简单实用，并可利用对偶理论求得网络可靠度下界，通过郑州、许昌等城市给水管网的工程实践，验证了算法的有效性。     

Seismic reliability analysis of urban water distribution network

An approach to analyze the seismic reliability of water distribution networks by combining a hydraulic analysis with a first-order reliability method （FORM）, is proposed in this paper. The hydraulic analysis method for normal conditions is modified to accommodate the special conditions necessary to perform a seismic hydraulic analysis. In order to calculate the leakage area and leaking flow of the pipelines in the hydraulic analysis method, a new leakage model established from the seismic response analysis of buried pipelines is presented. To validate the proposed approach, a network with 17 nodes and 24 pipelines is investigated in detail. The approach is also applied to an actual project consisting of 463 nodes and 767 pipelines. The results show that the proposed approach achieves satisfactory results in analyzing the seismic reliability of large-scale water distribution networks.     

Seismic reliability of steel moment resisting framed buildings retrofitted with buckling restrained braces

The present paper investigates the seismic reliability of the application of buckling restrained braces (BRBs) for seismic retrofitting of steel moment resisting framed buildings through fragility analysis. Samples of regular three‐storey and eight‐storey steel moment resisting frames were designed with lateral stiffness insufficient to comply with the code drift limitations imposed for steel moment resisting frame systems in earthquake‐prone regions. The frames were then retrofitted with concentrically chevron conventional braces and BRBs. To obtain robust estimators of the seismic reliability, a database including a wide range of natural earthquake ground motion records with markedly different characteristics was used in the fragility analysis. Nonlinear time history analyses were utilized to analyze the structures subjected to these earthquake records. The improvement of seismic reliability achieved through the use of conventional braces and BRBs was evaluated by comparing the fragility curves of the three‐storey and eight‐storey model frames before and after retrofits, considering the probabilities of four distinct damage states. Moreover, the feasibility of mitigating the seismic response of moment resisting steel structures by using conventional braces and BRBs was determined through seismic risk analysis. The results obtained indicate that both conventional braces and especially BRBs improve significantly the seismic behavior of the original building by increasing the median values of the structural fragility curves and reducing the probabilities of exceedance of each damage state. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

水泥砂浆面层加固砌体墙抗震可靠指标研究

采用水泥砂浆面层加固方法加固砌体房屋是一种简单有效的方法。对比分析了《砌体结构加固设计规范》(GB 50702-2011)^[3]和《建筑抗震加固技术规程》(JGJ 116-2009)^[4]中钢筋网水泥砂浆面层加固砌体墙的可靠性;对10片未加固低强度砖墙和20片单面钢筋网水泥砂浆面层加固低强度砖墙进行拟静力试验,分析了未加固和加固墙体的破坏模式和机理,并提出了适用于钢筋网水泥砂浆面层加固砌体墙的抗震验算公式。研究表明：两标准的可靠水平差别较大,实际应用时,易产生矛盾;未加固墙主要发生沿阶梯形斜裂缝受剪破坏,加固墙主要发生沿通缝受剪破坏和沿阶梯形斜裂缝受剪破坏;建议公式的计算值与试验值吻合良好,未加固墙抗震可靠指标为2.2,加固墙抗震可靠指标为2.5～3.1;砂浆面层加固砌体结构可以显著提高结构的抗震性能。     

单一震源下生命线系统失效概率分析的新方法(一)--系统可靠路径与失效路径的识别

本文第一部分提出一类识别生命线系统可靠路径与失效路径的新方法，该方法从系统发生概率最大的可靠路径出发，采用递推分解的思路，识别出系统的互斥可靠路径和互斥失效路径，并给出系统失效概率的表达式和失效概率上下界表达式。实例分析表明，该识别方法的计算复杂性较小并具有较高的运算效率。     

基于BP神经网络模型的多层砖房震害预测方法

针对传统的基于地震烈度的建筑物震害预测方法的不足,本文以地震动峰值加速度作为建筑物震害预测的地震动指标,结合几次大地震中多层砖房的震害实例,提出了一种基于BP神经网络模型的建筑物震害预测方法,模型的输入为反映结构抗震性能的各类物理参数,输出为给定地震动峰值加速度下建筑物破坏状态的概率。研究表明:基于BP网络模型的多层砖房的震害预测结果与震害实例的实际情况比较吻合,本文的思路和方法可推广于其他不同类型的建筑结构的震害预测。     

双向地震荷载下崩塌堆积体盲数稳定可靠性分析

为了能考虑地震双向性和岩土体参数多种不确定性,提出了地震荷载下崩塌堆积体稳定可靠性分析方法,进一步研究水平和竖向地震荷载对崩塌堆积体的可靠性影响.运用极限平衡法和拟静力法分析了双向地震下崩塌堆积体的安全稳定性,采用响应面法和JC法建立崩塌堆积体的地震极限状态方程,然后,运用盲数理论对岩土体参数进行盲数化处理,进一步推导...     

城市供水管网在地震时的连通可靠性分析

考虑地震作用效应和管道抗力的随机特性,建立了埋地管道单元的概率预测模型,评估其在地震时的震害状态。把供水管网系统简化为边权有向网络图,通过Monte Carlo随机模拟过程,近似再现管网中各管段的破坏状态,进而分别结合图论理论方法和模糊关系矩阵法,对管网进行连通可靠性分析。由于Monte Carlo模拟算法是以管网各节点与水源点处于连通状态的近似频率计算来代替精确概率分析,为获得稳定的计算结果,对所用算例进行了5000次模拟。算例分析表明,基于图论方法和模糊关系矩阵法得到的管网连通可靠性结果基本相等。     

Shaking table tests and dynamic analyses of masonry wall buildings with frame-shear walls at lower stories

This paper describes shaking table tests of three eight-story building models： all are masonry structures in the upper stories, with or without frame-shear walls of one- or two- stories at the bottom. The test results of damage characteristics and seismic responses are provided and compared. Then, nonlinear response analyses are conducted to examine the reliability of the dynamic analysis. Finally, many nonlinear response analyses are performed and it is concluded that for relatively hard sites under a certain lateral stiffness ratio （i.e., the ratio of the stiffness of the lowest upper masonry story to that of the frame- shear wall story）, the masonry structure with one-story frame-shear wall at the bottom performs better than a structure built entirely of masonry, and a masonry structure with frame-shear wall of two stories performs better than with one-story frame- shear wall. In relatively soft soil conditions, all three structures have similar performane. In addition, some suggestions that could be helpful for design of masonry structures with ground story of frame-shear wall structure in seismic intensity region VII, such as the appropriate lateral stiffness ratio, shear force increase factor of the frame-shear wall story, and permissible maximum height of the building, are proposed.     

泰安市交通系统抗震可靠性分析

本文根据网络可靠性理论,针对泰安市交通系统网络模型进行抗震分析研究;采用Monte Carlo随机模拟技术,以及道路、桥梁单元可靠性分析方法,给出了不同烈度下网络中各节点的可靠度。分析了网络系统存在的薄弱环节,为泰安市防灾规划提供理论依据。     

基于稀疏约束和多源激发的地震数据高效采集方法

地震勘探目标日趋复杂化和精细化,"两宽一高"等采集技术获得了广泛应用,从而导致当前地震数据采集周期越来越长、成本越来越高,如何解决日益增长的勘探成本问题成为当前地震采集领域的研究热点之一.针对上述问题,本文首先开展了基于稀疏性的地震数据高效采集方法理论研究,对地震数据稀疏性基本理论、稀疏约束下随机采样及其数据重建方法进行了深入探讨,提出使用改进的分段随机采样方法灵活地进行实际地震采集测网设计;详细阐述了多源地震激发方法,对多源地震数据分离方法开展了深入研究,提出了基于小窗口中值滤波与稀疏约束联合随机去噪的多源数据分离方法,并在数据分离处理中取得了较好的效果;将上述两种地震数据采集方案有机结合,提出了1)规则多源、随机检波点(DmsRg)、2)随机多源、规则检波点(RmsDg)和3)随机多源、随机检波点(RmsRg)等三种高效采集方案及相应的数据重建方案,满足了后续常规化数据处理的要求,并讨论了多源激发对数据成像的影响.基于Marmousi模型数据的数值试验表明,本文构建的基于稀疏约束和多源激发的高效采集方法理论对于提高地震数据采集效率、降低勘探成本具有重要的应用价值,建立的数据重建方法流程可以取得和常规数据接近的成像结果.本文方法虽然在数值试验中取得了较为理想的效果,但还需要得到野外实际数据采集的进一步检验.     

Seismic reliability assessment of urban water networks

We present a framework for the seismic risk assessment of water supply networks, operating in either normal or abnormal conditions. We propose a methodology for assessing the reliability of water pipe networks combining data of past non‐seismic damage and the vulnerability of the network components against seismic loading. Historical data are obtained using records of damages that occur on a daily basis throughout the network and are processed to produce‘survival curves’, depicting their estimated survival rate over time. The fragility of the network components is assessed using the approach suggested in the American Lifelines Alliance guidelines. The network reliability is assessed using graph theory, whereas the system network reliability is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation. The methodology proposed is demonstrated both on a simple, small‐scale, network and also on a real‐scale district metered area from the water network of the city of Limassol, Cyprus. The proposed approach allows the estimation of the probability that the network fails to provide the desired level of service and allows the prioritization of retrofit interventions and of capacity‐upgrade actions pertaining to existing water pipe networks. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.