地震活动性参数的数理基础、相关性及筛选

从各种地震活动性参数的解析表达式入手,分析了诸参数对地震活动强度和频度的依赖性和相关性．一类为区域地震活动性统计参数,文中共分析了17个;另一类为地震活动分布类参数,即时间、空间、震级分布类参数．分布类参数的存在基础及合理性在于其分布模型的适用性．文中对地震时间、空间、震级的自然概率分布、泊松分布、威布尔（Weibull）分布和分形的解析式进行了形式类比和分析,并以实例说明．对余震序列衰减系数P值、H值、震群序列U值、F值和熵值K也作了初步评价,并给出了评价地震活动性参数之间相关性的另一途径,即分析计算输出时序曲线之间的关联度．文中推荐相似性关联度RY1Y2和相对变化斜率关联度GY1Y2作判定量．最后就众多地震活动性参量的筛选与应用提出了初步看法．      

地震活动性参数的不确定性及其对区划结果的影响

以晋中南地区和四川攀西地区为例，探讨了地震活动性参数的不确定性及其对区划结果的影响。不同的资料处理方案会造成参数的不确定性，其ｂ值的变化范围在０．５５－０．８３之间，ｖ４值的差异可达１．５－２．５倍。     

喜马拉雅地震带地震活动性参数确定

GB 18306—2015《中国地震动参数区划图》发布距今已有十多年,期间,地震资料（尤其是青藏地震区地震资料）发生了较大变化,及时开展相关地震带地震活动性参数研究对重大建设工程抗震设防安全具有重要意义。本文研究补充了600余条地震目录,其中8.0～8.9级地震7次,7.0～7.9级地震35次,并分析了地震资料的完整性：由于历史、地理、人文的原因,喜马拉雅地震带地震遗漏较严重,7级地震直至1897年才基本完整,6级地震直至1950年才基本完整,5级地震直至1980年才基本完整;本文根据8级以上地震密集活动时段划分了地震活动周期,公元1803年以来可以划分出2个活动周期,并对未来地震活动进行了预测;采用多种方案拟合了喜马拉雅地震带的b值和4级以上地震年发生率：b=0.90,v4=162,并与前人的计算结果进行了简单对比。     

菏泽5.9级地震前后三项地震活动性参数的空间动态演化

用地震活动性参数（地震频度Ｎ，地震能量Ｅ和地震ｂ值）的二维空间等值线计算机扫描技术，系统地追踪了１９８３年菏泽５．９级地震前后三项地震活动性参数的空间动态演化情况。结果表明，菏泽５．９级地震前１－４年，河北平原断陷南部地区特别是其东界聊考断裂带地震活动异常增强，地震频度增高，地震能量释放加速而地震ｂ值降低；地震活动增强区的长度约２００余公里，未来主震发生于地震活动增强区的边缘；震后约一年左右震中周     

震级转换关系及其对地震活动性参数的影响研究

本文根据1990-2007年《中国地震年报》中同时给出Ms和ML、且震源深度〈70km的6577个浅源地震资料,经统计回归得到了全国和各地震区Ms与ML之间的经验关系。新的震级转换关系接近于Ms=ML,本文建议在需要进行震级标度转换时,对于没有测定Ms的低震级地震可直接使用Ms=ML进行转换。与目前广泛使用的震级转换关系相比,采用本文建议的震级转换方法后,全国各地震区5级以上地震的数量基本没有变化,但5级以下地震的数量有明显增加,导致由此统计得到的各地震区震级．频度关系中的b值有不同程度的增大。此外,用地震数量直接得到的4级以上地震的年平均发生率V4有明显增高,且部分地震区甚至增加了50％以上。在高震级地震发生率不变的情况下,地震活动性参数的上述变化反映了对地震区地震活动水平的估计有提高,可能导致概率地震危险性分析结果的提高,对地震区划和工程场地地震安全性评价有重要意义。     

地震活动性参数b,η,c在中短期地震预测中的综合应用

本文把模糊模式识别的直接方法应用于以地震活动性参数ｂ，η，ｃ为基础的中甜地震预报，并以华北和松潘两地区为例，建立了一年期和半年期的模糊预报模式中ＦＰ１和ＦＰ０．５。对华北地区Ｍ≥５．８和松潘地区Ｍ≥５．４地震的内符检验（１９７０－１９８８）和外推预报检验（１９８９－１９９１）结果表明，一年期和半年期的内检及外推预报检验符合率可分别达到８８％和６２％以上。     

东北地震区小震资料完整性分析及其对地震活动性参数的影响研究

以东北地震区为例,基于G-R关系的震级·频度分布原理,研究了东北地震区最小完整性震级MC的时间分布特征和各时段的空间分布特征,统计了研究区内的地震活动性参数,探讨了小震资料完整性分析对地震活动性参数和地震危险性计算结果的影响.研究表明,对区域小震资料进行完整性分析,可以在低水平地震活动地区获得较准确的地震活动性参数,更好地反映了该区未来的地震活动趋势.本文的研究方法和结论可供地震资料完整性分析和地震活动性分析时参考.     

Mathematical basis, correlativity and selection of seismicity parameters

Using the analytic expression of seismicity parameters, the dependency and correlativity between the statistical parameters and seismic frequency or seismic intensity are discussed. The statistical parameters are divided into two kinds. One kind is the regional seismicity parameter, 17 parameters are analyzed in this paper. The other kind is the seismicity distribution parameter. They are the distribution parameters of time, space and magnitude. The existent base and rationality of distribution parameters depend on the application of distribution model. We analyze and draw an analogy between the natural probability, Poisson, Weibull distributions and multi-fractal analytic formula in time, space and magnitude. And some examples are given in this paper. The P value and H value of aftershock sequence attenuation, the U value and F value of earthquake swarm sequence and the entropy of information are discussed preliminarily. Another method about analyzing relationships among time-series curves are given. The resemblance relativity degree and the relativity degree of relative change slope can be used as the determining values. At last, some preliminary ideas about sifting and using for seismicity parameters are advanced in this paper.     

Correlation between the seismicity parameters

Though the forecast and prediction of earthquakes is a commonly accepted difficult problem in science, the step towards the exploration and knowledge of the generation and occurrence of earthquakes has never stopped. It has strong scientific exploration nature and great social efficacy in disaster reduction. For this reason, it has always been the object and motivation pursued assiduously by earthquake researchers. It is beyond doubt that the study of seismicity is still one of the important information sources that have historical records of the longest time and most abundant earthquake cases that can be testified. For many years, with the progress of study in this aspect and the unceasing increase of study methods, there have been not less than tens of methods that can be used to describe theseismicity characteristics from different angles. It is of great importance to determine from the numerous methods those ones that are relatively independent and to understand how many dimensions are there to restrict the complexsystem of earthquake generation and occurrence. Taking these as a referential basis, we would be able to identify the quantities that restrict the study of the seismogenic system, to raise the scientific value and rigorousness of prediction and forecast, and to get rid of the trouble of repeated information superposition.     

龙泉山断裂带地震活动性浅析

通过对龙泉山断裂带东坡断裂和西坡断裂的地震活动性研究,表明该带是一条活断层。历史地震记载和现今地震活动均呈现沿断裂带分布,地震活动呈现周期性和南北跳迁的特点,近10年来地震监测资料表明该带地震活动在增强。     

Assessing current faulting behaviors and seismic risk of the Anninghe-Zemuhe fault zone from seismicity parameters

Introduction Strong and large earthquakes are prepared and generated on specific segments of active fault zones, especially on the asperity parts of the zones (Aki, 1984; Wiemer, Wyss, 1997; Wyss, et al, 2000). Therefore, both the faulting-behavior identification and the rupture segmentation mainly based on the method of active tectonics are always important aspects in active fault research (DING, et al, 1993). The purposes of the two aspects of research focus on determining fault units tha…     

东北地震活动性短期预报方法研究

研究了1970年以来东北地区发生的MS≥5·0浅源地震孕育过程中地震活动性参数和地震活动图像的变化特征,并对地震活动性参数进行了比较系统地综合预报效能评价,结果显示:东北9次(组)浅震地震前,所研究的5项地震活动性参数中,88·9%出现了持续3个月以上的短期异常变化,且5项参数R值评分结果都满足97·5%的置信水平;88·9%地震前震源区附近出现了孕震空区,有87·5%孕震空区在空区边缘或空区内部出现了ML≥4·0逼近地震,逼近地震以单个或成对的形式出现。66·7%的地震在震源区附近出现了地震条带异常。最后给出东北地区中强震的短期预报方法,这对未来东北地区的地震预报工作将起着一定的参考意义。     

An overview on the seismicity of Cuba

The seismicity of Cuba is briefly presented together with a few fundamental neotectonic elements of the adjacent Caribbean region. The Cuban seismicity catalogue has been extended back to 1528 and it shows that the largest earthquakes occurred in 1766 and 1852 (I = IX MSK). Two types of seismicity (intraplate and interplate) can be distinguished in Cuba. Western and Eastern Seismotectonic Units correspond to intraplate type and the Southeastern Seismotectonic Unit to interplate type. Western Cuba is characterized by a low frequency of earthquake occurrence. Distribution of epicenters is not regular and the most important events mainly concentrate along two regional active fault system (Nortecubana and Surcubana). Due to the lack of seismic stations in this region, the characterization of seismicity is frequently done on the grounds of historical data available from 1693. The main seismogenic source for Cuba is the Bartlett-Cayman fault system, but inland there are other active structures. Some issues about historical and present day Cuban seismological research are also showed.     

Interrelation between seismicity parameters and delimiting potential seismic sources in a seismic statistical region and its influence on seismic risk estimation

In the paper, we have discovered the abnormal area distribution features of maximum variation values of ground motion parameter uncertainty with different probabilities of exceedance in 50 years within the range of 100°～120°E,29°～42°N for the purpose to solve the problem that abnormal areas of maximum variation values of ground motion parameter uncertainties emerge in a certain cities and towns caused by seismicity parameter uncertainty in a seismic statistical region in an inhomogeneous distribution model that considers tempo-spatial nonuniformity of seismic activity. And we have also approached the interrelation between the risk estimation uncertainty of a site caused by seismicity parameter uncertainty in a seismic statistical region and the delimitation of potential sources, as well as the reasons for forming abnormal areas. The results from the research indicate that the seismicity parameter uncertainty has unequal influence on the uncertainty of risk estimation at each site in a statistical region in the inhomogeneous distribution model, which relates to the scheme for delimiting potential sources. Abnormal areas of maximum variation values of ground motion parameter uncertainty often emerge in the potential sources of Mu≥8 (Mu is upper limit of a potential source) and their vicinity. However, this kind of influence is equal in the homogeneous distribution model. The uncertainty of risk estimation of each site depends on its seat. Generally speaking, the sites located in the middle part of a statistical region are only related to the seismicity parameter uncertainty of the region, while the sites situated in or near the juncture of two or three statistical regions might be subject to the synthetic influences of seismicity parameter uncertainties of several statistical regions.     

The application of seismic data with different precision in the determination of seismicity parameters

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Study on correlativity among some seismological prediction indexes related to earthquake frequency or energy

Introduction Study of seismicity indexes and prediction methods is an important aspect of earthquake pre-diction research. In recent years, with more and more seismicity indexes being presented and de-veloped, a question is naturally put forward that which ones among so many seismicity indexes are dependent and which ones are independent when they are used to describe seismicity changes. The author studied the correlativities among several non-linear prediction indexes, such as capacity dimens…