区域尺度城市增长时空动态模型及其应用

区域尺度城市增长动态模拟(Reg-UGM) 是城市化影响下的土地利用/覆盖变化以及全球 环境变化研究的重要手段之一。针对单个城市增长未来情景模拟难以在区域尺度刻画与解释 城市化影响下的土地利用/覆盖变化以及与全球环境变化交互过程与作用机理主要问题,本研 究集成人工神经网络模型(ANN) 与元胞自动机模型(CA) 构建适合不同情景的区域尺度城市 增长动态模型,通过1979 年以来高分辨率遥感信息探测获取的4 个时段京津唐都市圈城市增 长时空特征分析提取先验知识规则,模拟京津唐都市圈在基准模式、经济模式、政策模式与 结构调整模式未来不同情景模式下城市增长过程。研究表明,Reg-UGM在模拟区域尺度受国 家宏观政策等影响城市非线性增长过程具有较好的可靠性,为进一步研究城市化影响下的宏 观生态效应提供前提保障。模拟结果显示京津唐都市圈在不同情景模式下城市增长呈现较大 的时空格局差异,未来城市增长结构调整模式更符合区域城市化的实际情况,未来区域城市 增长将由特大城市向中小城市转移,滨海沿线城镇发展带将经历更快的城市增长过程。     

基于SLEUTH模型的东莞市区城市增长模拟研究

应用SLEUTH城市增长模型,借助GIS、RS技术,对东莞市区1990-2003年的城市增长过程进行模拟,同时预测2003-2030年城市增长情况。结果表明,SLEUTH模型较好地描述了东莞市区"自下而上"的城市增长模式,在这种增长模式下,未来东莞市区的城市化水平将在10～20 a内达到临界状态。研究结果对于理解东莞市区城市增长的内在规律具有理论和现实指导意义,同时可为政府制定相关决策提供依据。     

城市工业空间增长的多智能体模型

城市工业及基本就业空间的增长,是城市空间增长的动力源.有效模拟和预测城市基本就业空间的增长,对城市整体空间增长和城市系统的调控有着重要的作用.以城市工业及基本就业空间增长的决策主体--工业企业商和政府决策者,作为多智能体,通过多智能体之间的交流、竞争和协作,多智能体和环境间的交互作用,决定已存在工业区位的迁移和新工业空间区位的选择,形成城市工业及基本就业空间增长的动态微观模型.以珠江三角洲东部城市快速发展的樟木头镇为例,采用提出的方法模拟了该地区1988-2004年的工业及基本就业空间增长,获得了良好的模拟结果.     

城市建设用地增长预测主要模型类型及特征

在概括现有主要城市建设用地增长预测模型类型和特征的基础上,总结了不同模型类型间的相互关系,分析现有模型在建构和实际应用中存在的主要问题,以期为今后城市建设用地增长预测的方法论研究和实践提供参考。分析总结表明,现有常用的城市建设用地增长预测模型可以分为细胞自动机模型、多智能体模型、马尔可夫模型和综合模型4类,不同模型在建构机理和科学问题切入点选择方面差异较大,还没有出现适用所有研究目的的普适性模型方法。今后应围绕建设用地扩张的基础理论研究、合理确定城市系统简化路径与方法、提炼和总结建设用地增长预测的关键科学问题、模型手段的整合与创新四方面进行深入研究,推进城市建设用地增长模型建设和相关方法论实践研究。     

基于CA模型的内江城市景观格局动态演变研究

城市景观格局是自然与人文因素相互作用的结果,其动态演变的研究能够从景观的角度加强人类对于城市巨复杂系统的理解.随着GIS技术和空间预测模型的逐渐成熟,使得对于城市景观格局动态演变的研究成为可能.以内江中心城区为研究区域,通过GIS技术与CA模型的松散耦合,构建了景观格局的动态演变模型,并运用该模型预测了2020年研究区域景观格局的演变.研究表明,CA模型能够模拟内江城市景观格局的动态演变,该研究区域的最佳栅格大小为60m×60m,2.875个模型循环对应真实时间的1年.     

中国城市产业增长研究: 基于动态外部性与经济转型视角

新经济增长理论强调动态外部性对经济增长的积极作用。本研究认为动态外部性对中国城市产业增长的影响依赖于中国经济转型。利用2000年和2005年地级市及其以上城市的两位数制造业数据进行实证研究,发现动态外部性和我国城市产业增长存在非线性关系。产业专业化和本地竞争一定程度上可以促进产业增长,但是当专业化和竞争超过一定水平之后将不利于产业增长;相反,多元化程度只有达到较高水平之后才会显著促进产业增长。本研究还发现动态外部性对于市场化程度较高、参与全球化程度高、地方保护较强的产业以及位于经济自主权较大的城市的产业影响尤为显著。本文清晰地表明我国经济转轨为动态外部性的发生创造了条件。     

利用约束性CA制定城市增长边界

作为控制城市蔓延的重要工具之一,城市增长边界(UGBs)已经在国际学术界得到了广泛的关注和研究。从控制机制来看,由于规划城镇建设用地边界具有控制城市增长的法律地位,与西方国家的UGBs较为相似,因而可以被视为中国特有的一种UGBs。该边界的制定在我国经过了长期的实践,然而以往的方法往往缺乏充分的科学依据。因此,本文提出一种基于约束性元胞自动机来制定城市增长边界的方法,该方法考虑了城市发展的综合因素,能够较为客观、全面地反映城市增长的时空动态变化过程,并能体现众多城市发展政策的影响效果。利用约束性元胞自动机模型,以北京市域为研究区域,制定了中心城、新城和乡镇三个层次的UGBs。实证分析表明,利用该方法与传统方法所制定的UGBs存在一定的差异,因此在拟定新的UGBs或改进现有的UGBs过程中,应当充分考虑这一情况,参考该方法的模拟结果建立更为科学合理的UGBs。     

政府规划约束下的城市空间增长多智能体模拟模型

构建政府规划约束下的包含多种类型智能体和环境因素的城市空间增长多智能体模拟模型,通过居民、开发商和政府三类智能体之间以及智能体与环境之间的相互作用模拟了城市空间增长情况。模型将城市建设用地规划区纳入政府的土地利用政策,探讨了政府规划因素对城市建设用地增长的影响,并根据土地集约利用的原则对模拟结果进行了优化。在Repast和ArcGIS的实验环境下,以南京市中心城区(长江以南)为研究区设置了四组土地利用情景,模拟了2001-2007年研究区的城市建设用地增长情况,对比不同情景下模型的模拟精度,说明正确合理的政府规划引导对城市空间增长的重要作用以及对模拟结果进行优化的必要性。该模型有助于揭示城市空间增长机制,为政府宏观调控政策和规划制定提供参考。     

权衡生态安全与城市扩展模拟的山地城市增长边界划定

进行城市空间增长边界模拟研究,对区域有序开发土地资源和有效保护生态效益具有重要意义.传统方法未考虑到现实约束下生态需求对城市扩展的影响,缺乏一定的客观评价.本文以2005年和2015年两期城镇建设用地数据为基础,从协调城市扩展与生态安全的视角出发,借助ArcGIS平台构建改进CA模型,模拟了2025年万州城区的城镇用地...     

顾及城市空间结构信息的元胞自动机模型构建及其应用

利用衡量新增斑块空间邻接关系的多阶景观扩张指数定量识别城市组团的空间特征,结合城市组团所表现出的城市空间结构信息,构建基于MLEI的元胞自动机城市扩展（MLEI-CA）模型。针对武汉市1990、2000、2013年3期遥感影像数据,运用MLEI-CA对武汉市城市扩展进行模拟,通过与Logistic-CA模型对比验证该模型的适用性。研究结果表明,MLEI-CA模型更加准确地揭示城市扩展的空间演变过程,MLEI-CA模型精度优于Logistic-CA模型,Kappa系数、城市用地的精度分别提高6%和4%。     

Urban growth simulation by incorporating planning policies into a CA-based future land-use simulation model

Urban land-use change is affected by urban planning and government decision-making. Previous urban simulation methods focused only on planning constraints that prevent urban growth from developing in specific regions. However, regional planning produces planning policies that drive urban development, such as traffic planning and development zones, which have rarely been considered in previous studies. This study aims to design two mechanisms based on a cellular automata-based future land-use simulation model to integrate different planning drivers into simulations. The first update mechanism considers the influence of traffic planning, while the second mechanism can model the guiding effect of planning development zones. The proposed mechanisms are applied to the Pearl River Delta region, which is one of the fastest growing areas in China. The first mechanism is validated using simulations from 2000–2013 and demonstrates that simulation accuracy is improved by the consideration of traffic planning. In the simulation from 2013–2052, the two mechanisms are implemented and yield more realistic urban spatial patterns. The simulation outcomes can be employed to identify potential urban expansion inside the master plan. The proposed methods can serve as a useful tool that assists planners in their evaluation of urban evolvement under the impact of different planning policies.     

Incorporation of intra-city human mobility into urban growth simulation: A case study in Beijing

Journal of Geographical Sciences - The effective modeling of urban growth is crucial for urban planning and analyzing the causes of land-use dynamics. As urbanization has slowed down in most...     

A partitioned and asynchronous cellular automata model for urban growth simulation

Cellular automata (CA) models are used to analyze and simulate the global phenomenon of urban growth. However, these models are characterized by ignoring spatially heterogeneous transition rules and asynchronous evolving rates, which make it difficult to improve urban growth simulations. In this paper, a partitioned and asynchronous cellular automata (PACA) model was developed by implementing the spatial heterogeneity of both transition rules and evolving rates in urban growth simulations. After dividing the study area into several subregions by k-means and knn-cluster algorithms, a C5.0 decision tree algorithm was employed to identify the transition rules in each subregion. The evolving rates for cells in each regularly divided grid were calculated by the rate of changed cells. The proposed PACA model was implemented to simulate urban growth in Wuhan, a large city in central China. The results showed that PACA performed better than traditional CA models in both a cell-to-cell accuracy assessment and a shape dimension accuracy assessment. Figure of merit of PACA is 0.368 in this research, which is significantly higher than that of partitioned CA (0.327) and traditional CA (0.247). As for the shape dimension accuracy, PACA has a fractal dimension of 1.542, which is the closest to that of the actual land use (1.535). However, fractal dimension of traditional CA (1.548) is closer to that of the actual land use than that of partitioned CA (1.285). It indicates that partitioned transition rules play an important role in the cell-to-cell accuracy of CA models, whereas the combination of partitioned transition rules and asynchronous evolving rates results in improved cell-to-cell accuracy and shape dimension accuracy. Thus, implementing partitioned transition rules and asynchronous evolving rates yields better CA model performance in urban growth simulations due to its accordance with actual urban growth processes.     

Construction of an ecological resistance surface model and its application in urban expansion simulations

Urban expansion models are useful tools to understand urbanization process and have been given much attention. However, urban expansion is a complicated socio-economic phenomenon that is affected by complex and volatile factors involving in great uncertainties. Therefore, the accurate simulation of the urban expansion process remains challenging. In this paper, we make an attempt to solve such uncertainty through a reversal process and view urban expansion as a process wherein the urban landscape overcomes resistance from other landscapes. We developed an innovative approach derived from the minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model that involved the introduction of a relative resistance factor for different source levels and the consideration of rigid constraints on urban expansion caused by ecological barriers. Using this approach, the urban expansion ecological resistance (UEER) model was created to describe ecological resistance surfaces suitable for simulating urban expansion and used to simulate urban expansion in Guangzhou. The study results demonstrate that the ecological resistance surface generated by the UEER model comprehensively reflects ecological resistance to urban expansion and indicates the spatial trends in urban expansion. The simulation results from the UEER-based model were more realistic and more accurately reflected ecological protection requirements than the conventional MCR-based model. These findings can enhance urban expansion simulation methods.     

基于滞后变量模型的城市群建设用地增长对经济增长的滞后期和效应分析——以京津冀城市群为例

城市群建设用地增长对经济增长存在客观的时间滞后效应,即“用地投入—建设开发—效益产生—效益爬坡—效益稳定”的全周期过程。计算其滞后期长短和总效应大小,并挖掘导致差异的内在机制,对区域建设用地的供给与管理及经济社会的可持续发展具有重要意义。论文以1995—2017年京津冀城市群13个主要城市的统计数据为支撑,提出了建设用地增长对经济增长的滞后变量模型,定量确定了京津冀城市群各城市的滞后期长短、各滞后期的效应以及总效应,并发现了以下规律：① 城市群建设用地增长对经济增长存在普遍的滞后效应,滞后期在0~4 a;② 城市群建设用地增长对经济增长存在显著的正面效应,总效应介于1.66~49.5亿元/km2;③ 城市群建设用地增长对经济增长的滞后期和总效应均呈现出“中心—边缘”的空间分异特征;④ 滞后期主要与城市的等级和功能定位有关,高等级的中心型城市、中等级的副中心型城市和低等级的节点型城市对应的滞后期分别为4 a、2 a和0~2 a;⑤ 总效应主要与产业构成有关,城市产业高、中、低端对应的效应分别为30亿~50亿、10亿~20亿、1亿~10亿元/km2。     

Calibration of an urban cellular automaton model by using statistical techniques and a genetic algorithm. Application to a small urban settlement of NW Spain

Cellular automata (CA) stand out among the most commonly used urban models for the simulation and analysis of urban growth because of their ability to reproduce complex dynamics, similar to those found in real cities, from simple rules. However, CA models still have to overcome some shortcomings related to their flexibility and difficult calibration. This study combines various techniques to calibrate an urban CA that is based on one of the most widely used urban CA models. First, the number of calibration parameters is reduced by using various statistical techniques, and, second, the calibration procedure is automated through a genetic algorithm. The resulting model has been assessed by simulating the urban growth of Ribadeo, a small village of NW Spain, characterized by low, slow urban growth, which makes the identification of urban dynamics and consequently the calibration of the model more difficult. Simulation results have shown that, by automating the calibration procedure, the model can be more easily applied and adapted to urban areas with different characteristics and dynamics. In addition, the simulations obtained with the proposed model show better values of cell-to-cell correspondence between simulated and real maps, and the values for most spatial metrics are closer to real ones.     

城市土地的生态适宜性评价方法——以江西萍乡市为例

基于ArcGIS 8.3空间数据分析和可视化功能,提出了一种实用的城市土地生态适宜性评价方法,并以江西省萍乡市总体规划区土地生态适宜性评价为例,探讨了此方法的实际应用。该方法首先选择城市的主要土地利用类型,然后建立土地生态适宜性评价因子体系,并对各种用地类型进行单因子生态适宜度评价,再通过层次分析法确定评价因子权重,并运用GIS技术将单因子适宜度图层加权叠加,最后生成综合的城市用地生态适宜度分布图,从而从空间上相对准确地表征了不同类型土地的生态适宜度。     

资源约束下的三元函数区域增长模式

区域经济动力学的核心问题是区域增长,本文将资源要素引进生产函数,建立了资源约束下的三元区域增长模式,研究揭示:(1)模式不仅可以较好地模拟区域发展的不同阶段,还可以较客观地描写、预测区域发展与环境资源等区域因素的关系;(2)在区域经济(区域社会生产)这个经济“大木桶”里,起到主要约束作用的因素是资源,而不是通常备受关注的资金或管理因素;(3)资源指数越小越有利于区域资本的积累和社会生产总量的增加。     

城市增长边界研究进展——理论模型、划定方法与实效评价

新型城镇化背景下,传统粗放的城镇土地利用模式难以为继,控制城市规模、优化空间格局已成为当前国土资源管理的重点工作之一。城市增长边界(UGB)作为一种西方国家控制城市蔓延的技术手段和政策工具已逐渐被引入国内。采用文献资料法和归纳演绎法,梳理并分析了国内外城市增长边界的理论模型、划定方法与实效评价,挖掘未来城市增长驱动力和增长边界制定方法可能的研究方向,为后续研究和未来其在中国的实践提供参考。结果表明：① 城市增长边界实证研究的理论基础主要源于古典单中心城市模型,由于国情不同,国内主要关注经济水平、产业结构和可达性对城市增长的影响,而国外在此基础上还关注公共政策和服务、外部性以及主体间的博弈对城市蔓延的促进或抑制作用;② 城市增长刚性边界划定主要以土地适宜性和承载力评价为基础,弹性边界可采用元胞自动机进行空间辅助模拟;③ 国外城市增长边界的实施效果具有地区差异性,国内目前还缺乏城市增长边界实施效果评价相关方面的研究。因此,城市增长驱动力后续研究应吸纳多源理论,识别不同尺度下其机理特征,探索宏观环境的情景变量对微观环境下“驱动力—城市增长”这一关系的影响。城市增长弹性边界制定需要考虑城乡土地利用转换背后不同情景下主体间的复杂博弈对用地转换在空间上分布的决定作用。为了保证政策的持续性和统筹区域发展,未来需要明确城市增长边界的管理机构,制定对应的法律条款和管理体系。     

A WOE method for urban growth boundary delineation and its applications to land use planning

The aim of this study is to develop a new approach for delineating urban growth boundaries (UGBs) by applying the weight of evidence (WOE) method to land suitability assessments. Rapid urbanization is causing urban areas to encroach on agricultural land in China, posing a threat to national food security. Land use planning with clear delineation of UGBs is an effective method for controlling urban expansion. However, existing methods for delineating UGBs are typically complex or involve arbitrary decision-making. To address these drawbacks, we introduced the WOE method to develop a new UGB delineation approach, and applied this approach to a case study in the city of Jinan, China. This application achieved satisfactory accuracy; therefore, we concluded that the WOE method was an objective and effective approach to land use suitability assessments and UGB delineation. Land use planning could be benefitted considerably from the application of this method to land allocation and other planning decisions.