甘肃省能源消费碳足迹变化及影响因素分析(英文)

能源消费是人类活动影响全球气候变化的主要行为之一,对能源消费导致的碳足迹进行研究具有重要意义。本文首先应用能源消费碳足迹的相关概念和方法,计算得到了甘肃省1990年-2009年的总碳足迹、各能源消费类型的碳足迹、碳足迹产值和碳足迹生态压力;然后利用STIRPAT模型进行岭回归函数拟合,探讨了经济增长与碳足迹之间的定量关系,并验证了环境库兹涅茨曲线的存在性;最后通过脱钩指数分析进一步研究了经济增长与碳足迹之间的动态变化关系。结果表明:碳足迹从1990年的每人0.091 ha上升为2009年的每人0.191 ha,呈现波动上升的趋势。各能源消费类型的碳足迹构成中,煤和石油占据了绝对地位,其中又以煤所占比重最大,石油次之,天然气所起的作用甚微。碳足迹产值由1990年的1.18万元ha-1增加为2009年的2.51万元ha-1,碳足迹生态压力也从1990年的0.10上升至2009年的0.24。人口和人均GDP是驱动碳足迹增长的主要因素,且回归分析和脱钩指数分析都表明经济增长与碳足迹之间存在环境库兹涅茨曲线。     

能源足迹核算的改进与预测——以吉林省为例

定量测度能源消费的生态环境影响是区域可持续发展评价的重要内容。以化石燃料燃烧-CO2排放-地表吸收的碳循环过程为研究对象,对现有模型的土地碳吸收能力测算等方面进行了修正,构建了基于净初级生产力的能源足迹改进模型,分析了1994～2008年的吉林省能源足迹及其各土地利用类型供给变化,并通过生态效应指数计算揭示了土地利用/...     

长吉都市区能源碳足迹测度及影响因素研究

对1999~2008年长春都市区碳足迹进行计算,采用岭回归法和脱钩指数分析了经济发展与能源消费碳足迹之间的关系。结果表明:能源消费碳足迹呈现波动变化态势,1999~2002年人均能源消费碳足迹较低,2003年后呈现快速上升态势;受支柱产业能源消费特征影响,煤炭、石油所占比例呈上升趋势;生产性和生活性碳足迹均上升,能源消费碳足迹产值呈现不均衡变化态势;经济增长是能源消费碳足迹的主要影响因素,技术进步和城镇化发展作用有限;经济增长与能源消费碳足迹之间处于相对脱钩状态。     

中国不同产业空间的碳排放强度与碳足迹分析

采用2007 年中国各省区不同产业各种能源消费等数据,通过构建能源消费碳排放和碳足迹模型,对各省区化石能源和农村生物质能源的碳排放量进行了估算;建立了不同产业空间与能源消费碳排放的对应关系,将产业活动空间分为农业空间、生活与工商业空间、交通产业空间、渔业与水利业空间、其他产业空间等五大类;对各省区不同产业空间碳排放强度和碳足迹进行了对比分析。主要结论如下：(1) 中国2007 年能源消费碳排放总量为1.65 GtC,其中化石能源碳排放占89%;(2) 2007 年中国产业空间碳排放强度为1.98 t/hm²,其中,生活及工商业空间、交通产业空间的碳排放强度较高,分别为55.16 t/hm²和49.65 t/hm²;(3) 2007 年中国产业空间碳足迹为522.34×10⁶ hm²,由此造成的生态赤字为28.69×10⁶ hm²,这说明我国的生产性土地面积不足以补偿产业空间的碳排放,补偿率约为94.5%。各地区碳足迹差异明显,不少省份甚至存在生态盈余。总体而言,从产业活动空间的角度来看,中国目前的碳赤字不大;(4) 全国产业空间单位面积碳足迹为0.63 hm²/hm²,其中生活与工商业空间的碳足迹最大,为17.5 hm²/hm²。不同产业空间单位面积碳足迹大都呈现从东到西逐渐下降的趋势。     

中国各省区碳足迹与碳排放空间转移

减排责任的区域分解需要科学评价各地区的排放责任。碳足迹可以全面客观地评价为满足消费而进行的生产的生命周期碳排放水平, 除了生产过程的直接碳排放, 也包括生产过程中所消耗的中间产品的隐含碳排放。应用2007 年各省区投入产出模型和2002 年中国省区间投入产出模型, 定量测算了各省区的碳足迹和省区间的碳排放转移。结果显示, 各省区之间碳足迹和人均碳足迹存在显著的差异。碳足迹较大的省份为经济大省, 主要分布在北方地区;人均碳足迹较高的省份主要是北京、上海等中心城市和能源富集区域及重化工基地;中国存在着从能源富集区域和重化工基地分布区域向经济发达区域和产业结构不完整的欠发达区域的碳排放空间转移。上述结果表明, 人均碳足迹高的经济发达省份应承担较大的减排责任, 能源富集区域和重化工基地分布区域有相当一部分的碳排放是为沿海发达省份和产业结构不完整的欠发达省份提供电力、原材料等高碳产品所致, 减排责任的区域分解需要考虑碳排放空间转移的因素, 适当减轻能源富集区域和重化工基地分布区域的减排责任, 或使沿海发达省份向能源富集区域和重化工区域提供资金和技术上的扶持, 帮助这些区域提高能源利用效率, 减少碳排放。     

经济平稳增长下的湖南省能源消费量及碳排放量预测

引用考虑了技术进步、劳动人口等因素构建的经济增长模型预测湖南省最优增长率,获得未来年份的GDP;根据拟合模型计算得到能源强度下降速率,从而预测出2008- 2050年的能源强度和能源消费量.在此基础上,通过马尔科夫模型预测能源消费品种比例,并考虑未来年份能源品种结构变化,对预测的能源强度进行调整,计算各能源品种的排碳量...     

中国城镇居民家庭消费碳足迹与生态文明的生活方式

生态文明是人类社会发展的目标之一。居民的消费驱使着生产过程和资源消耗。通过对中国19个省的城镇居民调查数据的整理和碳足迹计算,并采用投入产出法分析,得出中国城镇家庭消费碳足迹的主要来源是用电、粮食消费和出行,并通过回归分析找出家庭碳足迹的主要驱动因素为人均收入和人均住房面积,进而提出家庭层面的城镇居民低碳生活策略应该是出行方式优选、节约使用能源和提倡家庭居住模式的扩大。     

基于能源消费的江苏省土地利用碳排放与碳足迹

采用2003~2007年江苏省能源消费和土地利用等数据,通过构建能源消费的碳排放模型,对江苏省5年来能源消费碳排放进行了核算,并通过土地利用类型和碳排放项目的对应,对不同土地利用方式的碳排放及碳足迹进行了定量分析。结论如下:(1)江苏省能源消费碳排放总量从2003年的8794.24万t上升到2007年的16329.85万t,涨幅达86%。其中,终端能源消费碳排放占53.6%。(2)江苏全省土地单位面积碳排放从2003年8.24t/hm²上升到2007年15.53 t/hm²,增幅为88.5%。其中,居民点及工矿用地单位面积碳排放最大,为95.62 t/hm²。(3)江苏全省能源消费碳足迹大于生产性土地的实际面积,由此造成的生态赤字达1351.285万hm²。(4)不同土地利用类型的碳足迹大小顺序为:居民点及工矿用地＞交通用地＞未利用地及特殊用地＞农用地和水利用地,其中居民点及工矿用地的碳足迹高达10.89 hm²/ hm²。(5)江苏全省单位面积碳足迹也呈明显的扩大趋势,从2003年的0.938 hm²/ hm²上升到2007年的1.769 hm²/ hm²。     

基于生态足迹模型的福建省生态安全分析与预测

生态足迹是目前较通用的衡量区域可持续发展的指标,利用生态足迹模型与其他指标结合,可以测算生态赤字（盈余）、生态足迹压力指数、万元GDP足迹等反映区域生态安全状态的定量指标．本研究计算了2002-2008年福建省人均生态赤字及生态足迹压力指数,得到全省生态压力的变化趋势．利用GM（1,1）灰色预测模型预测2009--2014年福建省人均耕地生态足迹与承载力、人均建筑用地生态足迹与承载力、人均生态赤字及生态足迹压力指数,结果表明,若继续沿着2002--2008年的发展模式,福建省在未来几年内生态安全将面临极大威胁,全省经济发展模式转型刻不容缓．     

1990-2007年中国能源足迹时空差异分析

基于生态足迹模型分析中国1990-2007年的能源生态足迹变化态势,并利用重心模型研究能源足迹的区域差异及变化。结果表明:1)近18年来,中国人均能源足迹呈现波动增长,能源足迹结构方面煤炭始终占据主导地位;建议优化能源结构,大力发展清洁可再生能源。2)中国各地区间能源足迹存在明显差异,空间分布格局为南少北多,能源生产与消费存在错位;建议国家设立能源生态补偿机制,由出现能源生态赤字的地区支付能源生态补偿基金给能源生态盈余地区。3)中国能源足迹的重心呈现逐步向西南方向移动的轨迹,通过与GDP重心轨迹的对比发现中国经济发展主要靠能源消费拉动。     

中国不同区域能源消费碳足迹的时空变化(英文)

Study on regional carbon emission is one of the hot topics under the background of global climate change and low-carbon economic development, and also help to establish different low-carbon strategies for different regions. On the basis of energy consumption and land use data of different regions in China from 1999 to 2008, this paper established carbon emission and carbon footprint models based on total energy consumption, and calculated the amount of carbon emissions and carbon footprint in different regions of China from 1999 to 2008. The author also analyzed carbon emission density and per unit area carbon footprint for each region. Finally, advices for decreasing carbon footprint were put forward. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) Carbon emissions from total energy consumption increased 129% from 1999 to 2008 in China, but its spatial distribution pattern among different regions just slightly changed, the sorting of carbon emission amount was: Eastern China > Northern China > Central and Southern China > Southwest China > Northwest China. (2) The sorting of carbon emission density was: Eastern China > Northeast China > Central and Southern China > Northern China > Southwest China > Northwest China from 1999 to 2003, but from 2004 Central and Southern China began to have higher carbon emission density than Northeast China, the order of other regions did not change. (3) Carbon footprint increased significantly since the rapid increasing of carbon emissions and less increasing area of pro-ductive land in different regions of China from 1999 to 2008. Northern China had the largest carbon footprint, and Northwest China, Eastern China, Northern China, Central and Southern China followed in turn, while Southwest China presented the lowest area of carbon footprint and the highest percentage of carbon absorption. (4) Mainly influenced by regional land area, Northern China presented the highest per unit area carbon footprint and followed by Eastern China, and Northeast China; Central and Southern China, and Northwest China had a similar medium per unit area carbon footprint; Southwest China always had the lowest per unit area carbon footprint. (5) China faced great ecological pressure brought by carbon emission. Some measures should be taken both from reducing carbon emission and increasing carbon absorption.     

Temporospatial changes of carbon footprint based on energy consumption in China

Study on regional carbon emission is one of the hot topics under the background of global climate change and low-carbon economic development, and also help to establish different low-carbon strategies for different regions. On the basis of energy consumption and land use data of different regions in China from 1999 to 2008, this paper established carbon emission and carbon footprint models based on total energy consumption, and calculated the amount of carbon emissions and carbon footprint in different regions of China from 1999 to 2008. The author also analyzed carbon emission density and per unit area carbon footprint for each region. Finally, advices for decreasing carbon footprint were put forward. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) Carbon emissions from total energy consumption increased 129% from 1999 to 2008 in China, but its spatial distribution pattern among different regions just slightly changed, the sorting of carbon emission amount was: Eastern China > Northern China > Central and Southern China > Southwest China > Northwest China. (2) The sorting of carbon emission density was: Eastern China > Northeast China > Central and Southern China > Northern China > Southwest China > Northwest China from 1999 to 2003, but from 2004 Central and Southern China began to have higher carbon emission density than Northeast China, the order of other regions did not change. (3) Carbon footprint increased significantly since the rapid increasing of carbon emissions and less increasing area of productive land in different regions of China from 1999 to 2008. Northern China had the largest carbon footprint, and Northwest China, Eastern China, Northern China, Central and Southern China followed in turn, while Southwest China presented the lowest area of carbon footprint and the highest percentage of carbon absorption. (4) Mainly influenced by regional land area, Northern China presented the highest per unit area carbon footprint and followed by Eastern China, and Northeast China; Central and Southern China, and Northwest China had a similar medium per unit area carbon footprint; Southwest China always had the lowest per unit area carbon footprint. (5) China faced great ecological pressure brought by carbon emission. Some measures should be taken both from reducing carbon emission and increasing carbon absorption.     

基于能源消费的中国不同产业空间的碳足迹分析

Using energy consumption and land use data of each region of China in 2007,this paper established carbon emission and carbon footprint model based on energy consumption,and estimated the carbon emission amount of fossil energy and rural biomass energy of dif-ferent regions of China in 2007.Through matching the energy consumption items with indus-trial spaces,this paper divided industrial spaces into five types:agricultural space,living & industrial-commercial space,transportation industrial space,fishery and water conservancy space,and other industrial space.Then the author analyzed the carbon emission intensity and carbon footprint of each industrial space.Finally,advices of decreasing industrial carbon footprint and optimizing industrial space pattern were put forward.The main conclusions are as following:(1) Total amount of carbon emission from energy consumption of China in 2007 was about 1.65 GtC,in which the proportion of carbon emission from fossil energy was 89%.(2) Carbon emission intensity of industrial space of China in 2007 was 1.98 t/hm2,in which,carbon emission intensity of living & industrial-commercial space and of transportation in-dustrial space was 55.16 t/hm2 and 49.65 t/hm2 respectively,they were high-carbon-emission industrial spaces among others.(3) Carbon footprint caused by industrial activities of China in 2007 was 522.34 106 hm2,which brought about ecological deficit of 28.69 106 hm2,which means that the productive lands were not sufficient to compensate for carbon footprint of industrial activities,and the compensating rate was 94.5%.As to the regional carbon footprint,several regions have ecological profit while others have not.In general,the present ecologi-cal deficit caused by industrial activities was small in 2007.(4) Per unit area carbon footprint of industrial space in China was about 0.63 hm2/hm2 in 2007,in which that of living & indus-trial-commercial space was the highest (17.5 hm2/hm2).The per unit area carbon footprint of different industrial spaces all presented a declining trend from east to west of China.     

基于生态压力指数的新疆生态安全时空动态分析

通过计算2000-2007年新疆各地州(市)的生态足迹和生物承载力,选取生态压力指数(EPI)构建区域生态安全评价模型,对不同地区的生态安全状况进行了评价并分析其时空动态变化。结果表明:①2000-2007年新疆各地州(市)人均生态足迹均呈增长趋势,而生物承载力总体上呈减少趋势。②西部大开发战略实施以来,新疆经历了由生态安全向生态不安全演变的过程;各地州(市)生态不安全程度逐年增加,且增加幅度不等。③新疆生态安全程度的空间分布呈现一定的规律性,北部地区＞中部地区＞东、西部地区＞天山北坡地区。     

The eco-environmental guarantee for China’s urbanization process

Studying the change of resources consumption and eco-environmental carrying capacity are of importance to the sustainable development of urbanization. Based on the China’s economic and social statistical data from 1950 to 2006, the ecological footprint, ecological footprint intensity, ecological deficit and surplus, and eco-environment quality comprehensive index are calculated, the correlation between urbanization and eco-environmental change is analyzed and the eco-environmental guarantee for China’s urbanization in 2030 is forecasted. The major results could be summarized as follows: (1) there is a positive linear relation between urbanization and ecological footprint, negative linear relation between urbanization and ecological footprint intensity, ecological deficit and surplus and the negative exponential relation between urbanization and eco-environment quality comprehensive index. (2) By 2030, the urbanization level will reach 61.32%, the ecological deficit will increase to 42.2866×108 hm2 and the eco-environment quality comprehensive index will drop to 0.3016 on the condition that the total quantity ecological footprint achieves 55.9348×108 hm2. (3) Under the existing urban development pattern, the ecological overload will be more serious in the next 24 years. Constructing the reasonable industrial structure and establishing the intensive resources utilization system to alleviate the eco-environmental pressure are the tough challenges in China’s urbanization process.