数字形变固体潮汐在中强地震前异常变化的研究

针对近年来发生在东北地区的部分地震和全球远震,提取铁岭地震台数字DSQ水管倾斜仪、SS-Y洞体应变仪、VS型垂直摆倾斜仪相对应地震的数字形变观测记录,采用直观日变曲线形态的方法、预报软件数学分析方法进行分析.     

根据波速比变化作出中期地震预报的一个实例

1976年11月7日,我国川滇两省交界处的盐源、宁蒗一带发生6.7级走滑断层型地震.震前约一年,作者根据附近约二万平方公里范围内的波速比普查结果,对未来主震的震级和地点作了比较符合实际的中期预报.发震时间的预报是后来根据其它前兆观测结果的综合分析作出的.本文可以作为走滑断层型地震前观测到波速比变化的一个新的实例.根据剪切破裂和粘滑运动之间的差别以及膨胀造成的各向异性,对有关结果作了初步讨论.      

张家口地震台垂直摆倾斜仪固体潮半月波分析

张家口地震台垂直摆能记录到清晰固体潮半月波。从原始曲线可见,观测曲线与理论曲线形态相近,幅度基本一致,只是观测曲线因气压影响欠光滑。利用频谱分析和小波分析方法提取该台垂直摆观测资料中的半月波变化特征,频谱分析结果显示:垂直摆观测资料清晰检测到半月波MF,幅值近17×10~(-3)″。小波分析结果显示:分离出的垂直摆固体潮半月波与地倾斜理论固体潮的半月波形态一致,幅度相当,相位吻合。张家口地震台垂直摆能观测到清晰的固体潮半月波,是多方面技术改造和精心维护的结果。     

山西昔阳地震台SSQ-2I数字化石英摆倾斜仪精度及观测图像特征分析

为全面了解山西昔阳地震台于2010年10月新安装的SSQ-2I数字化石英摆倾斜仪的性能及运行情况,从近一年来的观测曲线形态、观测数据拟合检验、图像异常与地震的对应关系几方面进行研究,结果表明,观测数据稳定,固体潮曲线光滑,相对于台站不同方向、不同范围的地震出现观测曲线异常,可为今后的地震预测提供可靠资料.     

数字洞体摆倾斜观测常见干扰分析

分析临汾地震台数字摆倾斜观测中常见干扰及曲线形态变化特征,并对同一干扰源造成两摆式倾斜仪曲线形态的差异性进行探讨,希望对观测资料中异常的判断、仪器维护、数据预处理及地震预测预报应用研究等具有一定参考意义。     

澜沧—耿马地震前FSQ仪记录到的粘滑和慢地震及对短临预报探讨

本文分析了弥渡，永胜，楚雄台ＦＳＱ型浮子水管仪原始记录图，发现澜沧－耿马大震前，出现短临形变异常特征，其主要表现为粘滑，慢地震。粘滑，慢地震，小震活动是大震前震源体直接传播出来的孕震过程的主要信息。及时分析定点形变台站观测中的这些震兆信息，可能是探索短临地震预报的一种良好途径。     

根据波速比变化预报地震的一个实例

1976年11月7日,我国川滇两省交界处昀盐源、宁蒗一带发生6.7级走滑断层型地震。震前约一年,作者根据附近约2万平方公里范围内的波速比普查结果,对未来主震的震级和地点作了比较符合实际的预报。发震时间的预报是后来根据其它前兆观测结果的综合分析作出的。 本文可以作为走滑断层型地震前观测到波速变化的一个新的实例。根据剪切破裂和粘滑运动之间的差别以及膨胀造成的各向异性,对有关结果作了初步讨论。     

粘滑过程中的多点错动

最近十多年来,通过高密度宽频带台网对许多地震的观测发现,一些大地震并非只由一个震源引起,在地震的瞬间可能有多个震源存在.例如汶川地震就曾经被拆解为多个顺序发生的次级地震.那么在实验室尺度上的粘滑事件可能存在类似于天然大地震的多震源或多点位错现象吗?本文从声发射和应变场两方面来分析粘滑过程中震源多点错动的现象,包括对粘滑事件的定位,近场声发射波的初动方位空间分布,应变场形态,快速滑动应变波振荡频率和失稳瞬间的应变增量初动方位空间分布等.     

个旧地震台VP垂直摆倾斜仪观测干扰研究

选取2016年2月1日以来个旧地震台VP型宽频带垂直摆倾斜仪观测资料,正确识别自然环境、场地环境、仪器故障、人为影响等典型干扰,并分析干扰形态及特征,可有效提高VP垂直摆观测的内在质量,对准确识别地震前兆异常信息具有一定意义.     

银川台石英摆倾斜仪异常特征及预测指标分析

应用形态法、潮汐因子判别法对银川台石英摆倾斜仪观测资料进行系统分析,拟总结出银川台石英摆倾斜仪观测资料异常特征及其预测指标。分析结果显示:在银川台周边地区400km范围内发生的中强地震前,银川台石英摆倾斜仪观测资料存在明显的异常,同时在2001年昆仑山口西8.1级地震、2008年四川汶川8.0级地震前均存在不同程度的异常变化。     

A Monte Carlo study of rainfall forecasting with a stochastic model

A procedure for short-term rainfall forecasting in real-time is developed and a study of the role of sampling on forecast ability is conducted. Ground level rainfall fields are forecasted using a stochastic space-time rainfall model in state-space form. Updating of the rainfall field in real-time is accomplished using a distributed parameter Kalman filter to optimally combine measurement information and forecast model estimates. The influence of sampling density on forecast accuracy is evaluated using a series of a simulated rainfall events generated with the same stochastic rainfall model. Sampling was conducted at five different network spatial densities. The results quantify the influence of sampling network density on real-time rainfall field forecasting. Statistical analyses of the rainfall field residuals illustrate improvement in one hour lead time forecasts at higher measurement densities.     

Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration Aims And Scope

正This journal is established by the Institute of Engineering Mechanics(IEM),China Earthquake Administration,to promote scientific exchange between Chinese and foreign scientists and engineers so as to improve the theory and practice of earthquake hazards mitigation,preparedness,and recovery.To accomplish this purpose,the journal aims to attract a balanced number of papers between Chinese and     

Foreword

Destructive earthquakes have caused great damage in China and the United States and collapsing buildings havecaused many deaths and injuries. The field of earthquake engineering studies earthquake hazards, the occurrence ofearthquakes of various magnitudes, the nature of the ground shaking during an earthquake, the vibration of structuresduring earthquakes, the strengthening of existing structures and the design of new structures to be earthquake resistant,and finally, how to cope with earthquake damage and restore a city to normal functioning. Such efforts are in progressin both countries, but unfortunately, the language barrier interferes with the free flow of information between China andthe Untied States. It would be mutually beneficial if some means could be developed to promote the exchangeof information across the Pacific Ocean. This new journal has been established for this purpose and its success willbe an important step in promoting earthquake engineering in China and the United States.     

WORLD ASSOCIATION FOR SEDIMENTATION AND EROSION RESEARCH(WASER)

正President:Giampaolo Di Silvio,Italy Vice Presidents:Ulrich C.E.Zanke,Germany Zhao-yin Wang,China The World Association for Sedimentation and Erosion Research(WASER),inaugurated on Oct.19,2004,is an independent non-governmental,non-profit organization.The mission of WASER is to promote international co-operation on the study     

Enhancing remote sensing research on global change to improve our understanding on Earth system processes

正Global Change includes climate change and other environmental changes caused by the joint interaction among various layers of Earth. From the positive side, global change provides new opportunities to human and other living forms on Earth. In the meantime, it creates tremendous challenges and negative impact. At present, the negative impacts have reached all primary processes of the global ecosystem and every aspect of human society, especially causing degradation of the ecosystem. For instance, intensive deforestation causes decline of biodiversity; global warming causes sea level rise and increases     

SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences SUBJECT INDEX TO VOLUME 57(2014)

正~~